Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

598
FXUS62 KMHX 041900
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
300 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Small Craft Advisories expanded to cover all area waters
tomorrow into Monday morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A cold front will push through the area on Sunday into early
next week, bringing increasing rain chances and a marginal risk
for severe thunderstorms.

2) Prolonged period of below normal temperatures expected behind
the front well into next week.

Marine...Small Craft conditions expected tomorrow into early
Monday. Prolonged period of poor marine conditions looking
increasingly likely next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A cold front will approach the Carolinas
tomorrow and cross ENC late tomorrow night into Monday morning.
Ahead of the front, Gulf moisture advection will continue to
increase as Tds climb into the mid 60s by mid-afternoon.
Combined with temps in the low to mid 80s, this will fuel weak
instability of around 500 J/kg MLCAPE (but in a worst case
scenario, up to 750 J/kg). Combined with modest pre-frontal
shear of 20-25 kt, tomorrow`s environment will be marginally
favorable for stronger storms, with stronger winds being the
primary threat. Lapse rates appear too low to support severe
hail, and hodographs do not favor a mentionable tornado risk.
SPC. SPC has our area in a Marginal (Level 1/5) risk for
tomorrow.

With PWATs increasing to around 1.5" tomorrow, potential has
increased for some meaningful rainfall from this frontal
passage. NBM precipitation probabilities have trended upwards
from yesterday:

> 0.5": 70-80%
> 1.0": 25-35%

Higher amounts are likely in thunderstorms, potentially in
excess of 2" in a worst case scenario. Forecast rainfall amounts
tend to be overstated in long-term drought conditions like ours,
but the forcing and deeper moisture with this system appears
strong enough to overcome the antecedent dry conditions.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Once the front is offshore, cooler high pressure
will build back in behind it. A quick moving reinforcing cold
front will race across the region on Tuesday into Wednesday,
although it will be moisture starved and unlikely to bring any
rain with it. Low level thickness values and N-NE flow behind
the front will lead to below normal temps with highs mostly in
the 60s before warming back into the 70s by late week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SCT cumulus cloud layer, with occasional periods of BKN CIGs,
will continue for several more hours this afternoon. Skies are
expected to clear out for several hours this evening. Overnight
into early Sunday morning, guidance suggests the potential for
an area of low stratus to develop within an area of increasing
low-level moisture advection. Synoptically, the pattern is
favorable for this, but guidance is mixed on whether or not it
will occur. For now, I`ve added a FEW/SCT layer at 2500ft to
highlight this potential. See below for the probability of MVFR
conditions late tonight into Sunday morning:

EWN: 20-40%
PGV: 30-50%
OAJ: 20-40%
ISO: 30-50%

As the seabreeze moves inland this afternoon, a period of gusty
south winds is expected to develop for a short time. Winds may
be occasionally gusty tonight, but a more solid period of
frequent wind gusts of 20-25kt is then expected to develop
fairly early Sunday morning. This will occur ahead of a cold
front that will be approaching the area from the west. This
front is expected to carry a risk of SHRA and TSRA, but with the
primary window coming after 18z. Of note, though, some guidance
suggests the TSRA risk may develop as early as 16-18z for KISO
and KPGV.

Outlook: A cold front will move through the area Sunday
afternoon and evening with an increased risk of TSRA and sub-VFR
conditions. Areas of enhanced wind gusts to 45kt will be
possible with any TSRA. Improving aviation conditions are then
anticipated as we move into the start of the work week.

&&

.MARINE...
Regional observations depict south to southwesterly winds this
afternoon 5-10 kt with a few gusts up to 20 kt and seas around
3-4 feet. Expect a gradual uptick in winds through tonight and
into tomorrow as a cold front approaches area waters from the
west, peaking out of the southwest tomorrow afternoon and
evening with gusts to 25-30 kt and seas rising up to 4-6 feet.
Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front with a risk
of strong wind gusts in excess of 40-50 kt at times.

The cold front will cross the waters overnight Sunday and veer
the winds to the north. The northerly surge behind the front
will be short- lived with gusts dropping below 25 kt by early
Monday afternoon. Elevated seas, however, may linger a bit
longer across the outer central waters.

SCA have been expanded to all area waters for tomorrow. Inland
rivers and sounds are only in effect for tomorrow during the day
time hours when mixing will be at its strongest.

Outlook: Once SCAs drop on Monday, we should remain headline free
until late Tuesday when the next front is expected to pass. The
latest forecast has NE winds at 20-25 kt with gusts to 25-30+ kt and
6-9 ft seas Tuesday night through Wednesday. Behind this front,
seas will likely remain elevated for much of the week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for 4/4 (Saturday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        92/1934   (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   78/1945   (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      90/1967   (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   80/2007   (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         92/1934   (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    89/1963   (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ131-
     136-137-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 11 AM EDT Monday for
     AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 11 AM EDT Monday for
     AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Sunday to 5 PM EDT Monday for
     AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Sunday to 2 PM EDT Monday for
     AMZ156.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 2 PM EDT Monday for
     AMZ158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MS/OJC
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...MS/OJC