Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

914
FXUS62 KMHX 131041
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
641 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Small Craft Advisory was expanded north to include the
coastal waters from Duck to Oregon Inlet through early this
evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Increased risk of scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms through Monday, some of which could be strong with
gusty winds, a risk of heavy rainfall, and scattered instances
of flooding/flash flooding.

2) Brief reprieve from the dangerous heat early next week, then
hot and humid conditions return by the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A wavy frontal boundary stretches west to east
across the Southeast U.S. early this morning, with areas of low
pressure riding east along it. Weak to moderate instability,
anomalous moisture, and areas of enhanced convergence is
expected to favor bands of training convection capable of
intense to, at times, extreme rainfall rates (potentially as
high as 2-4"/hr at times). While not everyone will get these
rates, there will be an increased risk of flooding and flash
flooding where those occur, especially if they develop over
urban areas. Short-term guidance differ on the placement of
these bands, but the general gist is that the heaviest rainfall
will be focused across northeastern sections of ENC this
morning, followed by a shift southwest with time towards the HWY
70 corridor and then eventually on towards the Crystal Coast.
Slightly drier air working in from the north should eventually
focus the heavy rainfall footprint across far southern sections
of ENC by Tuesday, with conditions improving by Tuesday night as
the low and frontal zone shift further offshore.

While the main concern appears to be shifting primarily to
hydro concerns over the next couple of days, there may be just
enough instability and shear to support a few stronger cores
capable of 30- 50 mph winds. The risk of severe thunderstorms
appears to be decreasing, however.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Low pressure developing off the coast of NC
today is expected to keep a "cooler" northeasterly flow going
across ENC through Tuesday. This should keep temps below normal
for a couple of days, and consequently lower the heat risk. This
looks to be short-lived, though, as a warming southwesterly
flow regime returns mid to late-week. Guidance continue to show
a strong signal for above normal temperatures and an increased
heat risk once again.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Areas of RA, reduced VIS, and sub-VFR CIGs are expected to
continue to impact ENC over the next 12-24 hours. Areas of TSRA
will be possible as well, especially through this evening. The
risk of TSRA should gradually decrease from north to south
tonight.

Outlook (Tuesday through Friday): Moisture and lift along a
stalled front should continue to support periods of SHRA into
Tuesday with periods of low CIGs (IFR/MVFR). A more predominant
period of VFR conditions looks to return by the middle of the
week.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure is forecast to translate east along a stalled
front over the next couple of days. On this track, the low
should pass through the southern waters, which suggests the
strongest easterly winds, and highest seas, will be focused
across the central and northern waters. For those waters, seas
of 4-7ft and winds of 15-25kt appear likely. A Small Craft
Advisory remains in effect for the central coastal waters where
confidence in impacts is the highest. Additionally, based on the
latest observations and guidance, the advisory has been expanded
north to include the northern coastal waters as well. Seas are
already around 5ft early this morning there, and with the
continued moderate easterly winds, should continue to build to
around 6ft.

Outlook (Tuesday through Friday): Low pressure will slowly
weaken and move east on Tuesday with high pressure building in
mid to late week bringing improved boating conditions. Building
southwesterly flow is expected by the end of the week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ196-
     203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ152-154.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RM
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...RM