Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

948
FXUS62 KMHX 120536
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1236 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Above normal temperatures will continue today.

2) Strong cold front to bring breezy and colder conditions this
weekend, along with a risk of widespread frost/freeze conditions.

Marine: Gale-force winds are likely for the outer coastal waters
this afternoon and evening from Oregon Inlet south through Surf
City.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Light southerly flow will steadily increase
today ahead of an approaching cold front. This combined with
warm low-level thicknesses will support one more day of above
normal temperatures, with highs in the 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A potent surface low is forecast to translate east
from the Ohio Valley to the Northern Mid-Atlantic today and
Friday. Meanwhile, an associated strong cold front is forecast
to cross ENC tonight. A secondary cold front is then forecast
to move through late Friday. Moderate to strong CAA behind each
front will lead to a fairly drastic drop in temperatures
compared to the above normal temperatures will are currently
experiencing. Guidance suggests multiple days of highs in the
50s, with lows in the 30s and 40s. Normal highs this time of
year are in the mid to upper 60s, and normal lows are in the 40s
and 50s. The incoming airmass will be running a solid 10+
degrees below those normal values. Probabilistic guidance shows
the highest risk of sub-freezing temperatures coming Saturday
night into Sunday morning, although this risk could extend to
other nights as well. Closer to the coast, some areas away from
marine influences could see frost conditions if/where winds
decouple enough. Assuming guidance doesn`t change, frost/freeze
headlines will likely be needed for a large portion of the area
this weekend and maybe into early next week.

In addition to the cold, each front will be accompanied by a period
of gusty winds of 20-30 mph. This will add to the chill, with wind
chill values inland making it feel more like the 20s each night from
Friday through Sunday. The winds may lead to elevated soundside
waters, but winds do not currently look to be strong enough to
cause significant impacts. Perhaps the greatest risk will be
areas around Roanoke Island that can see some impacts in
westerly flow. This risk would be focused in the tonight
through Friday period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecast confidence is moderate through the overnight hours,
then high for the remainder of the period.

Latest surface analysis shows ENC sandwiched between a weak wave
of low pressure migrating over the Gulf Stream and a deeper more
complex cyclone deepening over the Midwest and mid-Atlantic this
morning. In this area of relatively weaker winds, some shallow
fog has once again managed to develop at a few terminals so far
tonight and may persist through 08-09z given clearing skies. As
inland low deepens further, winds will slowly increase out of
the SW which should bring any visibility restrictions to an end
by dawn.

Tightening gradient ahead of mid-Atlantic low and increased
mixing points to breezy daytime hours. Trended winds upwards
from previous TAFs, now showing sustained winds of 10-15 kt and
gusts up to 20 kt inland and as high as 25-30 kt along the
coast. Expect a mix of mid and high clouds along with some
spotty fair weather cu in the afternoon, but VFR conditions will
prevail.

Outlook: A strong cold front will move through Thursday night
with a wind shift to the west or northwest. It will continue to
be gusty at times. Another surface front will move through late
Friday, likely with another bump up in winds. A few SHRA may
accompany both fronts, but a dry airmass in place should limit
coverage and intensity of any SHRA development.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs show W-SW winds 5-15 kt with seas 1-3 ft. A cold
front will approach the waters from the west today, moving
through this evening. Winds will steadily build early this
morning, peaking this afternoon and evening. Winds will peak at
15-25 kt for the nearshore waters. For the outer coastal waters
from Oregon Inlet south through Surf City, warm waters of the
gulf stream should support enhanced mixing. This combined with a
strengthening pressure gradient should allow a period of
frequent gale-force wind gusts to be realized. Gale Warning
continues for those offshore zones, with SCAs for the nearshore
coastal waters. Seas will build to 3-6 ft by late morning,
peaking at 4-9 ft this evening south of Oregon Inlet (highest
offshore) and 2-4 ft north.

Outlook: Elevated winds and seas are expected to persist through the
weekend as another cold front moves through Friday night with
another bump up in winds and seas. Additional marine headlines may
be needed for some waters to account for this secondary wind
surge. Marine conditions may begin to improve early next week,
although guidance differ on how quickly the gradient will relax.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM EST
     Friday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM EST
     Friday for AMZ156-158.
     Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Friday for
     AMZ182-184-186-188.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RM/CQD
AVIATION...MS
MARINE...RM/CQD