Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

880
FXUS62 KMHX 092243
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
543 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Frost advisory continues for tonight across the Coastal Plain.

Updated Aviation Discussion

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cool and dry conditions linger for the next couple of days
with frost concerns tonight.

2) Approaching storm system near the end of the week will bring
well below normal temperatures, breezy conditions, and a chance
of rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1... A warm and pleasant fall afternoon on tap for
ENC today as temps have warmed into the upper 60s to low 70s
under clear skies and steady W to NW winds behind a departing
surface trough.

As we`ve been mentioning for the past couple of days, tonight
looks like the best candidate so far for fairly widespread
frost, especially west of NC 17 as skies remain clear and winds
inland will likely be calm with high pressure building overhead
tonight. As is typical in these environments, deterministic
guidance for lows is not aggressive enough, so blended in NBM
10th percentile and the previous forecast to keep forecast lows
into the mid to upper 30s. Could see a few well sheltered areas
make a run towards the low 30s but this should be rather
isolated. As a result a frost advisory has been issued for much
of the Coastal Plain west of Hwy 17 tonight between midnight and
7AM Tue. Tuesday night is forecast to remain slightly warmer as
high cirrus is forecast to stream into ENC from the west
preventing good radiational cooling Tue night limiting frost
potential. So while it is unlikely tomorrow night it wont be
impossible.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Not much has changed with this weekends system
as there remains good agreement amongst guidance for
increasingly unsettled weather across the eastern CONUS. A
complex mid-level low will deepen over the region and steer
multiple shortwaves over the Mid-Atlantic. While there are still
some differences in exact details that will need to be hashed
out in the coming days it remains likely that a complex low will
sweep across the Ohio River Valley and Mid-Atlantic Wed into
Thursday with a coastal low developing off the Mid-Atlantic
coast Thurs into Friday with this coastal low then deepening
offshore as it meanders around the the Northeast this weekend
though its intensity and track remain uncertain. Probabilistic
guidance favors a northern track for these areas of low
pressure, which would keep heavier precipitation away from our
area though isolated to widely scattered showers wouldn`t be out
of the question. Either way not expecting much QPF from any
shower that impacts the area Thurs into Fri before we dry out.

The biggest threat with this aforementioned low will be the
associated gusty winds. In general, probabilities for a period
of 20-30 mph W-NW winds and gusts potentially in excess of
35-45 mph Fri into Sat remain high. If this is realized, at
least some coastal flooding concerns could arise soundside along
the Outer Banks. Given spread of guidance, it is too early to
state the potential magnitude of impacts. Stay tuned for future
updates.

Behind the system, unseasonably cool air will flood into the
area knocking highs down into the 50s for the weekend and offer
the first real opportunity for a freeze Sat night and Sun night.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will gradually build overhead tonight bringing
mainly VFR conditions to all terminals. Strong radiational
cooling expected overnight with clear skies and light to calm
winds opening the door for a ground fog and frost threat if
there`s enough moisture left in the lower levels. Brief patchy
fog will be possible at all terminals early Tue morning.
Increasing high clouds expected Tue afternoon. Patchy fog will
again be possible Tue night/Wed morning.

Outlook: Mainly VFR conditions are forecast through Wed as high
pressure and a much drier airmass remain in place. Approaching
storm system at the end of the week brings an increase in shower
chances, some gusty winds, and sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure has begun to build in from the west behind a
departing surface trough allowing for winds and seas to quickly
decrease across our waters today. Latest obs show widespread
5-15 kt W-NW winds with gusts up towards 20 kts and 2-4 ft seas.
As high pressure builds overhead expect these benign boating
conditions to continue with winds becoming light at 5 kts or
less tonight and shifting to a S-SW`rly direction. As high
pressure pushes offshore on Tue winds remain SW`rly but increase
slightly to 5-15 kts. With the lighter winds seas will lower to
2-4 ft tonight and remain at these heights into Tue evening.

Outlook: Decent boating conditions expected through Wednesday.
Attention then turns to a coastal low likely to develop off the
Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday. Although magnitude of impacts
remains uncertain, trend has been for stronger winds and the
probability for Gales remains elevated, especially for the
waters from Raleigh Bay north. Timing and low intensity remains
a point of uncertainty, so mariners are encouraged to continue
monitoring future forecasts.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM EST Tuesday for NCZ029-044-
     079-080-090>092-193-198.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MS/RCF
AVIATION...CQD/RCF
MARINE...MS/RCF