Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

774
FXUS62 KMHX 300136
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
936 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
SCA for central coastal waters has been reissued with both winds
and seas outperforming previous marine forecast iterations.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1.) Line of scattered showers with maybe a thunderstorm or two
possible tonight. Severe thunderstorm chances decreased.

2) MCS moving through the Carolinas Thursday bringing chances
of rain.

3.) Rain arrives this weekend as a low pressure system develops
off of the southeast coast on Saturday and drags a frontal
system through the area Saturday night.

Marine: Small Craft Advisory cancelled. Heightened winds and
seas possible this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A series of weak shortwaves rotating around an upper low
centered north of the Great Lakes will push across the area
over the next couple of days. An initial shortwave and attendant
low pressure system will move out of the mid-Mississippi Valley
and push northward through the Ohio Valley today. Mid level dry
layer paired with no instability and a lack of forcing have
resulted in an underwhelming amount of precip this afternoon.
Generally dry conditions expected to continue into the evening,
before a cold front moves through tonight. Ahead of the cold
front, scattered showers and maybe a thunderstorm are possible.
However, meager instability given nocturnal stability precludes
any notable severe threat.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Another shortwave bringing an MCS with it will
trek across the Carolinas Thursday. There is some uncertainty of
how north the precip shield extends, with PoPs decreasing the
further north you go. NBM has not resolved this trend in
guidance yet, so went well above NBM in this forecast cycle.
Thunder chances remain low enough to keep out of the forecast
Thursday over land with the MCS, with some reinvigoration
possible once the MCS encounters warm gulf stream waters.


KEY MESSAGE 3...An increasing chance for much needed rainfall
will be on Saturday as a low pressure develops off of the
southeast coast and works its way over eastern NC. As this is
happening an upper level low centered over Ontario and Quebec
will work to deepen an upper level trough that will begin to
push a supporting wave out of Texas which will eventually
elongate into the frontal system that will accompany the coastal
low. The merged systems will push through Saturday night into
Sunday and move offshore but not before some significant
rainfall areas along the coast having a 50-75% chance of at
least an inch of rainfall, decreasing to 30-50% chance inland.

As far as convection is concerned, currently most of the
instability remains offshore with northerly flow keeping
profiles more stable over land. This should keep rainfall rates
low enough to preclude any flash flooding threat, especially
when paired with the drought conditions in place. Still a lot
of uncertainty in the models regarding how strong the low will
get and will have to monitor as the system gets closer.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Some patches of lower cloudbases FL025-035 will persist for a
few more hours but CIGs are expected to remain mostly VFR
through the overnight. However, a broken line of showers and
thunderstorms associated with FROPA will move from NW to SE
across the forecast area while dissipating, and could lead to
some temporary reductions to MVFR levels. Thereafter, VFR
conditions will continue the rest of the tonight and through the
day tomorrow with the front pushing offshore around sunrise. An
MCS is forecast to cut across Sern portions of NC along or near
tonight`s front through the day THU with some light precip
possible; best chances OAJ and EWN though ISO may see some
should the precip shield extend that far N. Have introduced VCSH
from around midday through early afternoon for all terminals
but PGV; no flight restrictions expected. Light breeze generally
out of the NW through the day THU.

Outlook: Back to mainly VFR Thu into Fri, then conditions
deteriorate Fri night through Sat as widespread rain with
lowered cigs afflict ENC. Winds generally in the 5-15 kt range
through the rest of the week. The low pres area clears out by
Sunday with return to VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Currently seeing SW winds, 10kt or less inside but 12-18kt with
gusts 20-23kt out of the SW. Seas generally ~3-5ft@10-12sec.
Winds will gradually increase to around 10-20 kt this evening as
low pressure passes north of the area, then will become NW to N
late tonight behind a cold front. Could see a few gusts to
20-25 kt tonight with best chances over the Gulf Stream waters,
but most areas should remain below SCA criteria. SCA has been
reissued for coastal waters from Oregon Inlet to Ocracoke Inlet
due to 6-7ft seas reported from 41025 and winds ticking up a bit
until FROPA will keep these elevated seas in place. Cold front
moving through tonight may bring some thunderstorms capable of
gusty winds along marine zones. Thursday late morning through
the afternoon a MCS moves through our waters, with thunderstorm
chances returning for warm Gulfstream waters where instability
is the highest.

Outlook: Another low pressure system may pass across or just
south of the waters late in the week which could bring another
chance for small craft advisory criteria to be met Saturday into
Sunday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Thursday through
     Thursday evening for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for AMZ152-154.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RJ
AVIATION...SGK/CEB
MARINE...CEB/RJ