Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

005
FXUS62 KMHX 092006
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
406 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant chances with this forecast package.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dangerous heat and humidity persists across ENC into this
weekend.

2) There is a chance for some strong thunderstorms later this
weekend into early next week as instability builds across ENC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot and humid conditions across the region today
with temperatures in the mid to upper 90s inland from the coast
and lower 90s along the immediate coast. Heat index values have
reached around 100-110 this afternoon, highest along the coast
where dew point temps are in the mid to upper 70s. Deeper
mixing inland and brought dew point temps into the upper 60s to
lower 70s keeping heat index values in the lower range. Will
continue the Heat Advisory for much of ENC through the early
evening hours.

Low level thickness will be similar across the are on Friday and
expect similar high temps in the 90s once again. Low level flow
continues out of the W to WSW Friday with deeper mixing allow
for dew point temps to drop around 2-3 degrees from today`s
values, and while the Heat Risk continues in the major
category, heat index values are expected to peak a few degrees
lower, generally around 100-105. Will hold off on issuing a Heat
Advisory for Friday at this time with only a small are expected
to climb above 105 degrees and let following shifts evaluate
further.

Low level thicknesses decrease several meters on Saturday with
temps a few degrees less hot while dew point temps begin to
creep back up resulting in another day with heat index values
around 100-105 with the heat risk in the moderate to major
range.

KEY MESSAGE 2...An upper level trough/mid level shortwave and
surface front approaching from the north and west this weekend
will increase shower and thunderstorm chances Saturday and
Sunday across ENC. Latest trends is for the front to approach
our northern zones Saturday evening and push through the area
Sun morning. This would act to bring best precip chances to ENC
Sat afternoon and overnight with chances then waning through the
day Sun from north to south. While instability has trended down,
generally ranging from 1000-2000 J/kg of ML CAPE Sat and
750-1500 J/kg of ML CAPE Sun, with greater upper level support
and deep layer shear values closer to 25-30 kts this weekend
across ENC, could see a few stronger storms this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Pred VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Only
isolated showers and thunderstorms possible across northern
rtes through the evening, generally across northern rtes.
Only slightly better coverage on Friday with widely scattered
late day/evening showers and thunderstorms. SW winds will gust
around 20 kt during the afternoon hours both this afternoon and
again Friday afternoon. Light mixing and dry conditions will
generally serve to limit fog/stratus tonight and can not rule
out shallow ground fog late tonight.

Outlook (Saturday through Tuesday): As we get into the weekend
as an upper level trough and associated surface front approaches
increasing chances for showers and storms as well as sub-VFR
conditions will be noted. Could see improving conditions on
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Currently seeing SW winds around 10-20 kt with seas around 3-5
ft. Winds will continue to increase this afternoon and evening
as a low pressure area passes north of the area and a
strengthening thermal trough inland with SW winds around 15-25
kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas building to 4-7 ft. Winds
will be strongest across the Pamlico Sound and coastal waters
and have kept SCA`s for these areas. Winds relax briefly Friday
morning, but then tighten again Friday afternoon as a front
approaches from the NW with SCA conditions expected to redevelop
over the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet.

Outlook (Saturday through Monday): Once again not much change in
the forecast as conditions gradually improve Saturday, then
will see a backdoor cold front drop through the waters late
Saturday night and Sunday with winds becoming NE around 10-20 kt
with seas building to 3-5 ft. A weak area of low pressure may
form along the stalled front to the south Monday keeping E-NEly
flow across the waters.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ045>047-080-
     081-090-092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-199-203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Friday
     for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ152-154-
     156.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SK/RCF
AVIATION...SK/RCF
MARINE...SK/RCF