Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

548
FXUS62 KMHX 230819
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
419 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Issued a Small Craft Advisory for the nearshore coastal waters
north of Ocracoke Inlet through Sunday Night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A stalled front will lift back north today with isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area and warmer
temperatures.

2) An unsettled pattern persists through much of next week with
seasonably warm and muggy conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A frontal boundary is currently stalled across
the southern most section of the FA early this morning with
isolated to widely scattered overrunning showers across the
region. Guidance lifts the front back to just north and west of
the area later this morning into the early afternoon hours with
southerly flow and warmer temperatures returning. A moist and
unstable airmass will remain in place with PWATS around 1.7" and
SBCAPE peaking around 800-1200 J/Kg this afternoon. Limited
forcing during peak heating with the front north/west of the
area will keep shower and thunderstorm chances limited around
20-40%. Very little shear, 0-6km bulk shear around 10 kt or
less, with poor mid level lapse rates will keep the severe
thunderstorm chances to a minimum, but a few stronger storms may
produce locally heavy rainfall and wind gusts to around 40 mph.
With ENC back in the warm sector this afternoon, temps will be
several degrees warmer today with highs in the mid 80s inland to
upper upper 70s to lower 80s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A subtropical ridge and Bermuda high pressure
will remain centered off the SE coast through much of next week
bringing moist SWly flow and conditionally unstable conditions
across the region. A series of shortwave troughs will lift
across the western periphery of the ridge bringing periods
increased forcing and chances for showers and thunderstorms,
with greatest chances generally during peak heating in the
afternoon and early evening hours with additional forcing along
the sea breeze. PW values will be around 1.75-2" through the
through the period which may lead to locally heavy rainfall at
times. Guidance is suggesting that we would see 2-3 inches of
rain over the next 5 days or so with a few showing around 4
inches, which will be helpful to curb the drought conditions,
but we are 7-10 inches below normal for the year so it will take
significantly more rainfall to alleviate the drought. The
severe potential looks limited throughout the week with weak mid
level lapse and lack of shear in place. Temps will be
seasonably warm with highs in the mid 80s most days with humid
conditions with dew point temps in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
It is not until late next week or next weekend that we could see
a pattern break with a northern stream trough digging into the
eastern CONUS bringing drier and cooler conditions, through
guidance is not in best agreement with the timing of the pattern
shift.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A front is stalled across far southern rtes early this morning
with abundant low level moisture below the frontal inversion
bringing widespread LIFR conditions across most rtes, though
mainly seeing MVFR along the immediate coast. The front will
lift back north later this morning into early afternoon hours
with cigs gradually lifting to MVFR by mid morning with pred VFR
expected by early afternoon, although isolated to widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across rtes
this afternoon bringing occasional sub-VFR periods. Sub-VFR
conditions expected to return late tonight with numerous showers
and a few thunderstorms possible as a weak shortwave brings
increased forcing across rtes. Wind will be light NE early
today, becoming S to SE later today behind the warm front
lifting north and west of the area.

Outlook (Sunday through Wednesday): Chances for sub-VFR
conditions and shra with ocnl thunder will persist each day into
midweek next week as an active sea breeze will persist each day
under a warm, moist airmass. Winds will be light, generally in
the 5-15 kt range.

&&

.MARINE...
A frontal boundary draped across far southern coastal waters
early this morning, will lift back north as a warm front later
this morning into the early afternoon. Currently seeing NE
winds less than 15 kt, but will become S to SE around 10-15 kt
once the front lifts north. Seas are currently around 4-6 ft
with a prolonged easterly fetch off the mid-Atlantic coast,
highest north of Cape Hatteras. Wave guidance initialized too
low with the waves and adjusted up a foot or two to align with
reports. Have issued a SCA for the nearshore coastal waters
north of Ocracoke Inlet through Sunday night. Isolated to widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across our coastal
waters along a stalled boundary bringing a low end threat for
locally enhanced winds and seas as well as a low end waterspout
threat today.

Outlook: A more summer like pattern resumes across our waters as
the area remains under the influence of the Bermuda high. This
will bring 5-15 kt S`rly winds and 3-5 ft seas to our waters as
well as chances for showers and thunderstorms to the waters
into mid-week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for AMZ152.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 AM EDT Monday for
     AMZ154.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SK/RCF
AVIATION...SK
MARINE...SK/RCF