Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

916
FXUS62 KMHX 192249
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
649 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation Discussion was updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Above normal to near- record high temperatures and rain- free
conditions to continue Wednesday.

2) A frontal system approaches the area Thursday, bringing the next
appreciable chance of showers and thunderstorms through the
weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Notably warm low-level thicknesses beneath an
anomalous mid-upper level ridging will continue to support above to
well above normal temperatures across the Carolinas through
tomorrow. Guidance shows similar low-level thicknesses this
afternoon and tomorrow`s yielding highs generally in the lower 90s
across the coastal plain, but some warmer spots may reach mid 90s.
This will fall a few degrees short of records, but is still around
10 degrees above normal for mid to late May.

Additionally, despite increasing low-level moisture, ridging aloft
will provide sufficient subsidence to suppress convective activity
outside of perhaps a rogue shower or thunderstorm where convergence
is maximized along the seabreeze (the usual suspect spots over Dare
County and Down East Carteret come to mind here). Still, probs of
this occuring are low enough to keep out of the forecast this
afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The mid-upper level ridge is forecast to break down
some starting Thursday and into the weekend, allowing a front to
drop south late Thursday into Friday and then stall as it encounters
the persistent ridging that has been over the region for much of the
past week. Confidence continues to increase on the front reaching
our CWA, with the most likely outcome being the front briefly
stalling between the NC/SC border and Cape Hatteras. The front will
likely linger over the area for a couple days before the boundary
eventually lifts back northward over the weekend with ridging
building back in its wake. The trend of a slower frontal passage has
held this morning, with the front not reaching our area from the
north until mid-afternoon. Therefore, forecast highs will once again
reach the 80s and 90s with persistent southerly flow.

Increasing moisture and instability along the frontal zone should
support an increased risk of showers and thunderstorms Thursday into
the weekend. Probabilistic guidance depicts a 30-40% chance of over
a quarter inch of rainfall, especially along and north of Highway 64
along the frontal boundary on Thursday. Ahead of the front, the pre-
storm environment should be sufficiently unstable for a few storms
as CAPE rises to 1000-1500 J/kg. With forecast steep low-level lapse
rates and modest dry air aloft, combined with PWATs in the 1.5-1.75"
range, the environment would be marginally conducive for the risk of
a strong downburst in a more organized storm. Said organization,
however, would require some amount of deep level shear and this
appears lacking with 0-6 km values under 20 kt. The odds of a
stronger storm appear to be around 10% or less as of this afternoon,
in line with CSU and NCAR ML guidance, but trends will continue to
be monitored. The severe risk will likely be muted on Friday with
the frontal boundary to our south, then return to a low-probability
regime for Saturday. Beyond here, the front becomes weak enough that
diurnal sea and sound breezes become dominant, focusing the highest
shower and thunderstorm chances inland. Each of these days carries a
low, highly conditional severe risk as well per ML guidance.

Notably high PWATs along the frontal zone should support higher
rainfall rates in convection. However, notable hydro impacts are not
expected due to the recent dry stretch and ongoing drought
conditions. While probs are low, if we do see training storms over
urban areas like Greenville, Jacksonville, and New Bern, minor
flooding impacts could be seen despite the ongoing drought.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Another rinse and repeat forecast for tonight as there will be
little change in airmass. Pred VFR conditions this evening will
continue until about midnight. Then much like the last few
nights, after midnight chances for LIFR/IFR fog and low stratus
return as yet another night of light winds and ample low level
moisture persist across ENC. Best chances to see fog or low
stratus will be across our SW`rn zones so (OAJ/EWN/ISO
terminals) with a slightly lower chance the further north and
east you get. Lower vis/ceilings start around the 04-06Z
timeframe near OAJ terminal and adjacent areas and expand north
and east as the night progresses to the other terminals and
adjacent areas. Locally dense fog will be possible. Conditions
improve quickly after 12z with VFR conditions then forecast
through all of Wednesday once they improve.

Otherwise S`rly winds become light tonight and then increase Wed
afternoon with gusts up around 15-20 kts behind the seabreeze.

Outlook: A frontal boundary sagging south into ENC is expected
to bring an increasing risk of SHRA, TSRA, and sub-VFR
conditions Thu into the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
A summer-like pattern continues through tomorrow, with a daily
building of winds to 10-20kt each afternoon and evening as the
thermal gradient tightens. This will especially be the case for
the inland rivers and sounds and the nearby coastal waters
within 20nm of the coast, where funneling could result in some
brief periods of 25kt gusts in the afternoon. Seas will
continue to hover around 2-3ft, potentially up to 4 ft during
the afternoon and evening.

Outlook: A frontal boundary is forecast to sag south into the
area Thursday, then meander around the area through the
upcoming weekend. This leads to lower confidence regarding winds
and seas, but especially wind direction. In general, the risk
of 25kt+ winds appears low during this time ahead of the front,
with slightly higher chances of seeing 25+kt gusts behind the
front across the Ablemarle Sound and adjacent waters on Thursday
afternoon and evening. There will be an increased risk of
thunderstorms in the region Thursday through Sunday as well.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MS
AVIATION...CQD/RCF
MARINE...MS