Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

134
FXUS62 KMHX 101040
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
640 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increased temperatures today and Wednesday

Increased winds with Thursday`s frontal passage

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Well above normal to near record conditions expected through
mid week

2) Strong cold front moves through the region Thursday with
widespread showers and the potential for thunderstorms

3) Temperatures rebound through Sunday ahead of a strong cold front
early next week

Marine...Elevated winds and seas expected with a strong cold
front Wednesday through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...An anomalously strong upper ridge will build
over the Southeastern US through Wednesday. Strong south to
southwesterly flow beneath the ridge will increase low-level
thicknesses and support record to near-record temperatures today
and Wednesday (see the Climate section below). Today, highs are
forecast to reach the low/mid 80s inland and upper 60s/low 70s
at the beaches. A few isolated light showers are possible this
afternoon as a shortwave moves through aloft, but most of the
area should remain dry. On Wednesday, inland zones are forecast
to reach the upper 80s while the beaches will be in the low/mid
70s. It`ll also be quite breezy as the gradient tightens between
the ridge over the Southeast and the trough approaching from
the west. Southwest winds will be sustained at 10 to 20 mph with
gusts to 15 to 25 mph.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front will cross ENC on Thursday afternoon
driven by an upper level shortwave. Ahead of the front, temperatures
will warm into the low/mid 70s inland and low/mid 60s at the
beaches. High PWATs (1-1.5"), frontal forcing, and enhanced upper
level dynamics will support scattered to numerous showers along the
front. Showers will occur within a high shear/low CAPE environment,
so while a few thunderstorms with gusty winds are expected, the
severe threat remains low. A notably cooler airmass will build in
behind the front, dropping temperatures by about 20-30 degrees by
Friday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Temperatures will rebound through the weekend,
reaching the upper 70s inland and mid 60s at the beaches by Sunday.
An impressive upper level trough will dig across the country late
this weekend and into early next week, bringing chances for
widespread showers and thunderstorms. Shower and thunderstorm
chances will peak with the passage of a strong cold front on Monday,
which will bring a noticeable airmass change. High temperatures
behind the front early next week will in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Widespread shallow fog and low stratus continues across the
terminals early this morning (mainly LIFR), with high clouds
moving in from the west. Fog and low stratus should lift by 15Z,
leading to another day of light SW winds and VFR conditions.
Areas of patchy sea fog may also continue. Patchy fog and low
stratus will again be possible tonight and early Wed morning
given little to no change to airmass.

Outlook...Sub-VFR may return Thursday with scattered to
numerous showers, isolated storms and gusty winds. Pred
VFR to return Fri into the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Sea Fog: With moistening srly light flow cont today into
tonight, sea fog may return and become dense again, and will
continue to monitor cams and obs for potential for additional
DFA. Probabilities from ensemble guidance indicate a 60-80% chc
of visibilities dropping below a quarter mile again this
morning and through the day.

Outside of sea fog impacts, fairly benign boating conditions
are expected to continue through Wednesday afternoon with
southwest winds at 10-20 kt and 2-4 ft seas.

Outlook: Conditions wil deteriorate Wednesday afternoon/evening
as the gradient tightens ahead of an approaching cold front.
Ahead of the front Wednesday night/early Thursday, southwest
winds will increase to 20-25 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt. Winds
will veer to the northwest as the front passes Thursday
afternoon and some Gale force gusts will be possible. Seas will
build to 4-8 ft during this time as well. Conditions will
improve behind the front Thursday night/Friday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for 3/10 (Tuesday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        86/1974  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   74/2000  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      84/2000  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   86/1974  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         85/2009  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    84/1974  (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 3/11 (Wednesday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        86/2015  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   73/1982  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      83/2016  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   83/1974  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         84/2000,2015  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    86/2015  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...OJC
AVIATION...CQD
MARINE...OJC