Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

981
FXUS62 KMHX 081830
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
230 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Rain chances have decreased even more for Sunday, while
remaining the same for Saturday.

The threat for thunderstorms, some potentially severe, has
increased a bit for Monday.

Marine: North winds have been increased behind the front Monday
night into Tuesday, with poor boating conditions likely.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) It appears the bulk of heaviest showers or storms will
remain mostly to the south of Eastern NC or offshore for most of
this weekend.

3) A strong cold front will move through late Monday. Widespread
rain showers are expected (80-90%). Depending on the timing of
the front, scattered severe thunderstorms and heavy rain may
accompany the frontal passage.

4) A warm front lifts through the Carolinas followed by a cold
front midweek representing the next wave of precip.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Several low amplitude and weakly sheared
shortwaves sweep across the Mid Atlantic and Southeast this
weekend. GOM is cutoff from moisture with sfc low pressure(s)
expected to remain south of the region, and thus precip looks to
be much more spotty in nature.

For Saturday, overrunning light rain (up to 40% chance) with
perhaps a few embedded storms (20% chance) are still in the
forecast, with best chances of seeing rain acrs the srn CWA. It
will not be an all-day washout, but periods of showers or light
rain with an iso storm will be present as a warm front lifts
through and weak lift transits the area.

Sunday, forecast has trended even drier, with subsidence in
wake of aforementioned light overrunning event, and the FA in
broad srly flow. Can`t rule out a shower or two across the wrn
FA (Coastal Plain counties), but bulk of guidance on the dry
side, including the AIFS, which as been quite consistent.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Decent agreement on next stronger shortwave
and attendant cold front moving through the region by late
Monday. This system will have decently strong dynamics with
fairly sharp troughing aloft pivoting over ECONUS to become more
negatively tilted and potentially steeper lapse rates.
Depending on diurnal timing, a severe thunderstorm threat is
possible with this system, with the main threats appearing to be
severe wind gusts and large hail, along with heavy downpours.
MLCAPE vals approaching 1K J/KG per latest 08/12Z ECMWF. Still
outside of HiRes guidance resolution window, but global guidance
suggest another quick half inch of rain or more is possible
with this FROPA. The EMCWF, UKMET, and ICON favor a late
afternoon or evening fropa, which would be an ideal window for a
greater severe t`storm threat. Stay tuned to later forecast
updates.

KEY MESSAGE 3...After a brief cooldown amid northerly dry flow
on Tuesday, a stacked low cutting across the Sern extent of the
Great Lakes and high pressure migrating offshore brings warm
and moist air across the Carolinas mid week ahead of the next
front set to cross the area around the Thursday time frame. Will
need to watch this system for severe potential as well.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Predominantly VFR conditions are expected through the period
with increasing chances for MVFR CIGs tomorrow afternoon.

Scattered high clouds and diurnal cu are accompanying light and
variable winds this afternoon. Winds will become southeasterly
tonight and may decouple for a few hours, which opens the door
for fog given a moistened surface from yesterday`s rain. Working
against the development of radiational fog will be the cloud
cover that will increase from south to north overnight as a warm
front approaches the area. The NAM (usually the most pessimistic
guidance in terms of visibility) shows a small area of reduced
visibilities generally south of Highway 70 early Saturday
morning, but confidence is too low to include in the TAFs at
this time. The aforementioned warm front will lift through the
area in the morning and veer the winds to the south-southwest
while increasing to 10-15 kt. Widespread broken CIGs around 45
kft are forecast to develop around noon with a 30-40% chance of
isolated showers and thunderstorms generally east of Highway 17.

Outlook: Isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain
possible through Saturday, eventually moving offshore Saturday
night. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms will be
possible again Sunday afternoon across the coastal plain, which
could bring another round of sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Light N to Nerly flow today becomes serly and then south tonight
as high pres migrates offshore. Winds remain in the 5-15 kt
range, with gusts upwards of around 20 kt as gradient inc on
Sat. Winds on the Gulf waters esp south of Hatteras will ocnl
gust to 25 kt, but will not issue any SCA`s attm due to marginal
nature of these stronger wind gusts and seas remaining below 6
ft. Showers and a few storms will sweep across the waters on
Saturday as weak low pressure moves through the region. Best
chance for thunder is over the Gulf waters where greater
instability will reside.

Outlook (Sunday through Wednesday):
Winds and seas diminish on Sunday, with next fropa expected
Monday with SCA conditions becoming more likely with post
frontal northerly flow of 25+ kt Monday night into Tuesday.
Winds diminish later Tuesday into Wednesday as high pres
reestablishes itself.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TL
AVIATION...OJC
MARINE...TL