Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

063
FXUS62 KMHX 112307
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
607 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Gale Warning has been issued for the outer coastal waters from
Oregon Inlet to Surf City.

Winds have slightly increased Thursday into Thursday night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Above normal temperatures through Thursday.

2) Strong cold front to bring breezy and colder conditions this
weekend, along with a risk of widespread frost/freeze conditions.

Marine: Gale-force winds are likely for the outer coastal waters
Thursday afternoon and evening from Oregon Inlet south through Surf
City.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Light southerly flow will steadily increase tonight
into Thursday in advance of an approaching cold front. This combined
with warm low-level thicknesses will support one more day of above
normal temperatures. Record highs are not expected, however.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A potent surface low is forecast to translate east
from the Ohio Valley to the Northern Mid-Atlantic Thursday and
Friday. Meanwhile, an associated strong cold front is forecast to
cross ENC Thursday night. A secondary cold front is then forecast to
move through late Friday. Moderate to strong CAA behind each front
will lead to a fairly drastic drop in temperatures compared to the
above normal temperatures will are currently experiencing. Guidance
suggests multiple days of highs in the 50s, with lows in the 30s and
40s. Normal highs this time of year are in the mid to upper 60s, and
normal lows are in the 40s and 50s. The incoming airmass will be
running a solid 10+ degrees below those normal values. Probabilistic
guidance shows the highest risk of sub-freezing temperatures coming
Saturday night into Sunday morning, although this risk could extend
to other nights as well. Closer to the coast, some areas away from
marine influences could see frost conditions if/where winds decouple
enough. Assuming guidance doesn`t change, frost/freeze headlines
will likely be needed for a large portion of the area this weekend
and maybe into early next week.

In addition to the cold, each front will be accompanied by a period
of gusty winds of 20-30 mph. This will add to the chill, with wind
chill values inland making it feel more like the 20s each night from
Friday through Sunday. The winds may lead to elevated soundside
waters, but winds do not currently look to be strong enough to
cause significant impacts. Perhaps the greatest risk will be
areas around Roanoke Island that can see some impacts in
westerly flow. This risk would be focused in the Thursday night
through Friday period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecast confidence is high over the next 24 hours.

ENC is currently trapped in between a weak area of low pressure
offshore to the south and a weak warm front lifting north towards
Virginia. The flow in between both systems is weak, but a general
southerly wind direction is expected through tonight. A more potent
area of low pressure is forecast to move through the Ohio Valley
today and into the Northern Mid-Atlantic States on Thursday. A
tightening gradient south of that low will lead to increasing south
to southwest winds Thursday, with gusts of 20-25kt expected.
Occasional mid and high clouds will overspread the area at times
over the next 24 hours, but VFR CIGs and VIS are anticipated through
Thu. Overnight clouds and light winds should limit fog threat.

Outlook: A strong cold front will move through Thursday night with a
wind shift to the west or northwest. It will continue to be gusty at
times. Another surface front will move through late Friday, likely
with another bump up in winds. A few SHRA may accompany both fronts,
but a dry airmass in place should limit coverage and intensity of
any SHRA development.

&&

.MARINE...
Light and variable winds will steadily build tonight, becoming
southwesterly 10-20kt. Winds will continue to build on Thursday,
peaking Thursday afternoon and evening at 15-25kt. For the outer
coastal waters from Oregon Inlet south through Surf City, warm
waters of the gulf stream should support enhanced mixing. This
combined with a strengthening pressure gradient should allow a
period of frequent gale-force wind gusts to be realized. In light of
this, a Gale Warning has been issued for those waters for Thursday
afternoon and evening.

Seas of 1-2ft this afternoon will quickly build to 2-5ft by tonight
as southwesterly winds build. Seas are then expected to peak at 4-
8ft south of Oregon Inlet by Thursday evening, with 2-4ft seas
elsewhere.

Outlook: Elevated winds and seas are expected to persist through the
weekend as another cold front moves through Friday night with
another bump up in winds and seas. Additional marine headlines may
be needed for some waters to account for this secondary surge of
wind. Marine conditions may begin to improve early next week,
although guidance differ on how quickly the gradient will relax.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 10 AM EST Friday
     for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 7 AM EST Friday
     for AMZ156-158.
     Gale Warning from 1 PM Thursday to 1 AM EST Friday for AMZ182-
     184-186-188.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RM
AVIATION...RM/CQD
MARINE...RM