Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

972
FXUS62 KMHX 291900
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
300 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Decreased temps and dewpoints a bit through the rest of this
week.

Updated Aviation Discussion

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Seasonably warm conditions through the rest of this week.

2) Dangerously hot and humid conditions for this 4th of July
weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A weak area of low pressure meandering off the
NC coast will continue to slowly drift away from the region.
Before that happens, light nerly flow and partly sunny
conditions will make for seasonably pleasant temperatures the
next several days. Highs will be in the mid/upr 80s inland to low
80s coast on Tuesday, and warm slowly into the 90 degree range
inland by Wednesday. Despite the warming, relatively low TD`s in
the 60s will not make it feel much hotter, with heat indices no
higher than the 90s through Thursday, possibly reaching around
100 by Friday as temps cont to warm through the 90s. Lows will
be seasonable through the week, with readings in the low/mid 60s
the next couple of nights inland, with low 70s coast, rising to
the mid/upr 60s inland by the end of the week.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The advertised heat and humidity build into ENC
from the north and west this weekend. Temps have backed off some
with latest 29/12Z guidance, with readings staying below record
values. Despite this, high impact heat and humidity is expected,
as the peak of it will be during the busy 4th of July holiday
weekend (Saturday through Monday) with highs expected to reach
well into the 90s inland, possibly reaching 100 in some locales,
with upper 80s to low 90s beaches. The combination of the heat
and humidity will push heat indices towards the 105 degree mark
or slightly higher this weekend. Overnight lows will also be
warm due to the increased TD`s, with lows around 80 near the
coast, and mid 70s interior.

NWS probabilistic Heat Risk values for Saturday and Sunday are
in the major (coast) to extreme (inland) range. The chance for
extreme heat risk is around 60-80% inland on Saturday and
Sunday with the compounding days and little relief during the
nighttime periods. Those sensitive to heat and anyone planning
on spending ample amounts of time outside this weekend into
early next week should monitor the forecast trends.

With the ridge of high pressure building in, a cap will develop
with little to no shower or thunderstorm relief esp on Saturday.
On Sunday, the ridge may break down just enough for some
scattered storms to develop mainly inland zones, but the chance
for rain is only 20-30% at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR strato cu was slow to lift this morning as ENC under nerly
flow regime on backside of offshore low pres. This will limit
afternoon shower and storm chances, and have only a vcsh mention
at KOAJ where best chances are for any rain. Elsewhere, chances
too slim for any mentionable rain. Winds will be light nerly
through the TAF pd with the low offshore. Tonight, another
of IFR cigs as low level moisture remains with low pres
meandering offshore and subsidence inversion strengthening with
high pres moving in. Best chances for the lowered cigs are for
KEWN, KOAJ, and KISO after 06Z tonight. Any low clouds lift by
13-15Z Tue morning with VFR returning and cont light winds.

Outlook (Wed through Sat): Dry weather is expected to prevail
with pred VFR conditions, but could see patchy fog and low
stratus each morning. Winds will be light through the period
with high pres in vicinity.

&&

.MARINE...
The weak low offshore will cont to produce nerly winds of 15-20
kt through early Tue. Could see ocnl gusts to 25 kt esp for the
coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet. Some 6 ft sets are still
possible for the ctrl waters between Ocracoke and Oregon Inlet,
and thus the SCA remains in effect for these areas. Otherwise,
seas will cont at 2-5 ft for the remainder of the waters
through Tue.

Outlook (Wednesday through Saturday): The Bermuda high becomes
dominant mid to late week with light winds 5-15 kt and seas
around 2-4 ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to midnight EDT
     Tuesday night for AMZ152-154.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TL
AVIATION...TL
MARINE...TL