Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

255
FXUS62 KMHX 191756
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
156 PM EDT Mon Oct 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Adjusted coastal flood related headlines.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A slow moving nor`easter continues to take shape well off
the coast, bringing a long duration wind and swell event with
high impacts for parts of Outer Banks and adjacent waters well
into the work week.

2) Cooler than avg conditions continue through the week.

Marine: Gale Warnings continue in effect. Prolonged period of
strong winds and high seas as nor`easter lingers offshore
through at least mid week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Vertically stacked low pressure will meander off
the NC and Mid-Atlantic coast through mid week bringing
prolonged strong north to northeasterly winds across ENC. The
sfc low is approx 300 mi ESE of Cape Hatteras and will only
very slowly drift northward over the next few days as the system
remains cut-off from the mean flow aloft. It is not until
Wednesday night or Thursday that the low will begin to
accelerate away from the East Coast as a northern stream
shortwave digs into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

There remains some variability among the models with the
placement of the low as it drifts northward over the next couple
of days, especially beyond Tuesday as some guidance now has the
low a bit farther northeast of the area allowing the winds to
diminish some. However, sufficient solutions keeps the low close
enough to the coast that Gale Force conditions may persist
along the coast through mid week.

Tight pressure gradients between the offshore low and high
pressure across the Eastern CONUS will bring strong north to
northeast winds across the region with the strongest winds
across the Outer Banks where gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible. A Wind Advisory remains in effect from Duck to
Ocracoke, and continues through Tuesday.

The strong winds continue to bring large surf along the coast
as well as coastal flooding impacts along vulnerable locations
of the coast, especially along Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands
where dune structure is fragile. So far, reports from NCDOT
indicate the dunes remain intact with localized overwash
occuring, though each subsequent high tide cycle will continue
to threaten the dunes and the threat of impacts to Hwy 12
remain. Soundside flooding is also a concern along southern
portions of the Pamlico Sound, including Frisco, Ocracoke, areas
of Downeast Carteret Co and locations along the Neuse and Bay
Rivers. A Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect for Hatteras
and Ocracoke Islands and a Coastal Flood Advisory remains in
effect for the Northern Outer Banks and several counties along
the sounds and rivers where northerly winds will bring elevated
water levels. Additionally, a high surf advisory continues for
Cape Lookout and points north through the OBX.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Pleasantly cooler air mass that has advected in
will remain with us through at least mid week with temps a bit
below climo. Maximum temperatures through the period are
expected to remain in the 60-70 degree range. Overnight lows
will range from the 40s inland to the 50s coast.

As the low meanders offshore, some wrap around rain showers may
occasionally sneak back onshore, with best chances on the OBX
over the next couple of days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure off the coast will continue to bring strong N to NE
winds across the terminals through the TAF period with gusts
around 20-30 kt across inland terminals and 25-35 kt along
coastal terminals, strongest with daytime mixing. LLWS may be a
concern early Tue morning as the LLJ strengthens some with the
low passing off the coast. Stratocu with bases 3-5 kft continue
across the terminals this afternoon, grad shifting off the
coast this evening and overnight. Brief period of MVFR
conditions possible across the coastal terminals this afternoon,
with best chances at MRH.

Outlook (Tuesday night through Saturday): VFR and continued
breezy conditions are expected to continue through the week as
the offshore low remains well east of the coast and high
pressure to the north. Inland winds would be highest during the
daytime with better mixing and gusts up to around 20 kt each
day.

&&

.MARINE...
Very dangerous marine conditions will continue as low pressure
deepens well off the NC coast but cont to supply a steady fetch
of strong n-nerly winds into ENC, with east northeasterly
swells. Latest obs show N-NE winds of 20-30 kt with gusts 30-40
kt. Seas continue 10-14 ft closest to shore and 12-18 ft likely
offshore. Little change expected over the coastal waters through
the period, though across the rivers and northern sounds winds
will begin to grad ease overnight.

Outlook (Tuesday night through Saturday): Conditions will be
slow to improve over the coastal and offshore waters, but by mid
week will start to see some improvement. Breezy winds will
continue through late week, with winds and seas increasing
again this weekend. Gale force winds through Wed and Wed night,
possibly returning to portions of the waters this weekend.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ046-094-
     194.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-199-203>205.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ196.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ196-204.
     Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ203>205.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NCZ203.
     High Surf Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for NCZ203-205.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NCZ204-205.
MARINE...Gale Warning until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ131-158-230.
     Gale Warning until midnight EDT Wednesday night for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ136.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ137.
     Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ150-152-154-156.
     Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ180-182-184-186.
     Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ188.
     Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ231.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CQD/SK
AVIATION...CQD/SK
MARINE...CQD/SK