Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

356
FXUS62 KMHX 110013
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
713 PM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains ridging in from the southwest through into
tonight while a cold front slowly approaches from the
northwest. The cold front moves through the area tomorrow, with
much colder conditions returning for early next week. A low
pressure system will move across the East Coast mid to late next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 7PM Saturday...

Key Messages...

 - Warm overnight

 - Showers increase from NW to SE as cold front approaches

No significant changes to the forecast as the forecast is
tracking well. A breezy SW`rly wind has kept WAA across the
region keeping ENC rather warm with temps in the upper 60s to
low 70s currently noted.

Prev Disc...Some record highs have already been broken today
(notably KHSE), with some others still being threatened, but
will be contingent on amount of sunshine able to peak through
multiple cloud layers. Line of showers been streaming over the
Crystal Coast through bulk of the day will persist for a few
more hours but activity wanes while pushing offshore this
evening. Winds remain breezy out of the SW keeping WAA in place
until the cold front arrives. Precip activity picks back up
ahead of the front just after midnight inland, through the early
morning hours for Inner Banks, rainfall on the order of a tenth
of an inch or two. Expecting the cold front to be bisecting the
FA by sunrise with sharp veering of winds to NWerly directly
behind the front. MinTs in the low 60s for places that remain
ahead of the front, low 50s far inland zones where front passes
through earlier.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
As of 1500 Saturday...

Key Messages...

- Light rain first half of the day

- Early morning highs (60s) as temps fall through the day (50s)
  behind the front thanks to strong cold air advection

The initial cold front is expected to push offshore shortly
after sunrise SUN with a second reinforcing front to cross
through the afternoon. PoPs 40-75% as the front moves NW to SE
across ENC. Up to a 1/4" of rain is possible, with the highest
amounts likely north of US 64. Rain will exit the OBX quickly
early Sunday afternoon as colder and drier air rushes in behind
the front. Have a mention of SChc thunder in the grids across
portions of the OBX given how anomalously warm low level flow
is underneath a stout trough aloft pivoting over the coast.
Precip ends for OBX by mid-afternoon with skies clearing W to E
behind the front.

High temps will occur early Sunday morning (low to mid 60s) with
temps dropping through the 50s the rest of the day as strong CAA
develops.

NWerly winds peak late afternoon into the evening behind the
reinforcing front. Gusts in the low 30kt range are expected,
with strongest winds forecast over portions of the OBX. Notable,
but not quite reaching headline criteria at this point.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1515 Saturday...

Key Messages

- Return to colder temperatures early next week with dry
  conditions

- Low pressure system mid to late next week will bring next
  chance of rain, with some potential (20-30%) for a wintry mix
  or light snow as it moves offshore

Sunday night...In the post-frontal air mass on Sunday night,
temps will tank to the mid to upper 20s across the coastal plain
and 30s along the beaches.

Early next week...Colder temperatures and dry weather is
forecast for early next week as high pressure moves over the
Southeast and a deep upper trough remains over the NE CONUS.
Highs 45-50 for Mon, then into the 50s to low 60s Tuesday and
Wednesday. Cold lows in the 20s for interior zones Mon night,
then moderating into the 30s through mid week.

Late next week...Building signal that a low pressure system will
move across the East Coast Thursday or Friday, but guidance
continues to struggle with the strength, location, and timing of
the system. Periods of rain are possible, and there is potential
(20-30%) for a changeover to a wintry mix or snow as the system
pulls away from the coast. Still too early for any discussion on
impacts or accumulation potential.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 715 PM Sat...

Key Messages

 - Brief period of LLWS likely this evening

 - Another round of low stratus possible late tonight into
   early Sunday morning

Primarily VFR ceilings and visibility are noted across ENC.
Though we do have some lingering MVFR ceilings currently noted
across the OBX. Expect clouds to continue to lift this evening
with at least a few hour period of VFR ceilings and vis across
ENC tonight as a steady SW`rly wind persists across the region
keeping us well mixed tonight. Cold front currently well to the
west of ENC will then sweep E`wards after midnight and track
across the area through the morning hours on Sun. This is
forecast to bring a period of MVFR ceilings 2-3 kft starting
from W-E tonight. Have PGV/ISO terminals going down to MVFR
ceilings between 8-9Z and EWN/OAJ terminals going down between
10-12Z. MVFR ceilings should quickly progress E`wards and
eventually push offshore by late morning Sun as the front
pushes offshore. Once the area goes VFR conditions will remain
VFR through the rest of the period Sun. Scattered to numerous
showers likely to accompany the front late tonight and Sunday
morning. Precip will push east of the terminals by mid morning
Sunday. SW wind gusts 15-25 kt through tonight, becoming NW
gusting 20-25 kt Sunday. This could lead to crosswind issues on
EWN and ISO runways Sun. Could also see a brief period of LLWS
between 0-6Z given the very strong winds aloft and have included
this at all TAF sites. Generally expect LLWS values of 40-45kt
at 1.5-2.0 kft during this timeframe before concerns ease after
06Z.

Outlook: Pred VFR conditions expected through the period with
high pressure in control.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 1515 Saturday...

Key Messages...

- Gale Force winds expected over the coastal waters south of
  Oregon Inlet tonight and tomorrow morning as SW winds increase
  ahead of a cold front

- A second round of Gale conditions will develop Sunday
  afternoon as NW winds surge behind a secondary cold front.
  These Gales will more widespread, covering all the coastal
  waters and Pamlico Sound at least

SWerly winds continue to increase through the afternoon to
15-25 kts, increasing further to 20-30 kts tonight with gusts
35-40 kts over the warmer coastal waters. The cold front will
cross through ENC SUN morning with winds quickly becoming NW at
15-25 kts directly behind the front. A secondary front will
move through in the afternoon, and behind this feature winds
will increase to NW 25-35 kts with gusts 35-40kt, approaching
45kts over GStream into Monday morning.

Showers are expected and Tstorms can`t be ruled out through the
first half of SUN until drier air enters area waters behind the
secondary front by late mid-late afternoon.

Seas 3-5 ft through this afternoon, and then will increase to
6-9 ft tonight. Seas remain elevated Sunday at 5-8 ft, and will
begin to decrease Sunday night.

Outlook: Marine conditions improve early week with sub-SCA
conditions expected until mid to late week when another low
pressure system will bring increased winds and seas.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for 01/10 (Saturday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        78/1974  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   70/2020  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      79/1937  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   73/1983  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         75/1974  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    80/1974  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for AMZ131-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST Sunday for AMZ135-150.
     Gale Warning from 2 PM Sunday to 1 AM EST Monday for AMZ135-
     150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 4 AM EST Monday for
     AMZ136-137.
     Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Monday for
     AMZ152-154-156.
     Gale Warning from 3 AM Sunday to 1 AM EST Monday for AMZ158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK/CEB/RCF
SHORT TERM...SGK/CEB
LONG TERM...SGK/CEB
AVIATION...CQD/RCF
MARINE...SGK/CEB