Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

546
FXUS62 KMHX 041036
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
636 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Winds continue to trend downward for the Nerly surge Monday
into Tuesday. Have removed thunder from grids for inland areas
for most of the day save for a few hours this afternoon.
Aviation Disco updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Periods of moderate to heavy rain to continue through today
along with a risk of flooding.

2) Cool high pressure leads to more fall-like temps next week,
but a prolonged period of moderate onshore winds poses localized
coastal flooding concerns for areas along the OBX with
compromised dune structures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A weak area of low pressure will develop along
the boundary the stalled frontal zone through today somewhere
between Cape Fear and Oregon Inlet to Cape Lookout. This low
will act to lift the front E of its center Nward and consolidate
the front W of its center. This combo of cyclo- and
frontogenesis, and ample moisture will continue to support
periods of moderate to heavy rain and a few thunderstorms. Have
kept the bulk of precip in the forecast W of best approximation
for the center of low thunder-free with Gulf moisture in SW flow
overrunning the post frontal high pressure at the SFC, but have
maintained a SChc in the afternoon leaving some room for the
low to track further inland. Precip to the E of the low`s center
will be more showery in nature, and have allowed NBM`s
PotThunder to remain in the Chc range. Instability will be lower
today with OVC skies throughout peak heating, so rainfall rates
may not get quite as high. However, given the anomalous
moisture present, there may continue to be some hydro impacts,
especially for areas that see repeated rounds of heavier rain on
top of what fell yesterday. The heaviest rain is expected to
end from north to south late tonight into Monday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...In the wake of the weekend front, a stiff
NEerly breeze will develop after midnight MON night and peak
through TUE morning. This will lead to building seas and
elevated water levels. Astronomical tide levels will luckily be
on the way down, but seas building to 7ft, though relatively
choppy periodicity of 7 sec, may be enough to lead to further
beach and dune erosion concerns across the areas with severely
diminished dune structures. However, this risk appears to be
decreasing some due to the strongest winds and highest seas
shifting south of Hatteras Island. This trend continued to hold
with 04OCT 00/06Z model suites. Strongest winds of 20-25 kt with
higher gusts expected TUE morning. Winds remain out of the N-NE
into late- week, but speeds diminish to 10-15kt late TUE and
beyond.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
All TAF sites currently showing LIFR flight cats as well as most
terminals across the Carolinas. IFR flight cats are expected to
hold on for most of the area, terminals along the immediate
coast and OBX have the best chances for some slight improvement
later this afternoon. A cold front is currently situated just
off the Crystal Coast. Low pressure develops along the front
and lifts NE on today, which will allow the front to push back
toward the coast. Some uncertainty with just how far inland the
front pushes but CIGs will likely lift to MVFR, and potentially
VFR, to the south and east of the boundary. MRH has the highest
probs of seeing improving CIGs during the day, OAJ and EWN has
the most uncertainty whether any improvement will occur, while
PGV and ISO has the highest probabilities to remain IFR
throughout the day. With the 12z TAF cycle, have kept all TAF
sites IFR through early afternoon with MVFR possible this
evening (included MRH, OAJ, and EWN in improvement to MVFR).
Any improvement will not be long lived with CIGs lowering again
overnight to IFR or lower until MON morning when the low departs
to the NE and strong high pressure builds over ENC behind a
reinforcing front, allowing for clearing conditions.

Outlook: Winds will become northeasterly behind the front,
surge peaking TUE morning. CIGs improve as skies scatter out
with the incoming high with VFR conditions then prevailing into
the middle of next week.

&&

.MARINE...
The front is slowing down and have pushed S of the Crystal
Coast, but may not get all the way through the southern waters
before completely stalling. The front then lifts back north as
a weak area of low pressure develops and then moves NWard along
it. As the low moves offshore, it will drag the cold front back
south through all waters tonight into Monday. The northerly
surge behind that front will be stronger than yesterday`s
surge, with marine headlines likely needed for some waters.
Guidance has trended down some with the winds during this time,
but still appear supportive of a period of 20-30kt winds. The
threat of gusts to gale- force continues on the downward trend,
with Southern offshore waters outside of 30nm the most likely.
Gusts outside of this area will remain in the 25-30kt range.
Seas of 2-3ft early today eventually build to 4-7ft by Monday
and Tuesday as the above- mentioned northerly surge moves
through.

Outlook: Northeasterly flow of 10-15kt continues into the
middle of next week, but should be lighter than Monday/Tuesday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RM/CEB
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...RM/CEB