Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

818
FXUS62 KMHX 120748
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
348 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Issued a Wind Advisory for the Outer Banks and Downeast Carteret
County this evening (wind forecast increased)

Increased temperatures ahead of this afternoon`s cold front

Marine...Northern rivers and sounds were upgraded to a Gale
Warning for the post-frontal winds this afternoon

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A strong cold front will cross the area this afternoon/evening
with gusty winds, widespread rain, and a few thunderstorms
expected. Thunderstorms may be capable of producing damaging
wind gusts and an isolated tornado. Low probability (10-20%) of
a wintry mix behind the front (generally north of Highway 264).

2) Temperatures rebound this weekend ahead of a strong cold
front early next week

Marine...Conditions will deteriorate through the day with
Gales expected this afternoon through late tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...As a potent upper level shortwave moves east
through the Mid-Atlantic today, a strong cold front will track
across ENC and bring gusty winds, widespread rain, and a few
thunderstorms. Given that the FROPA is expected to reach the
area ahead of peak heating, instability will be slightly muted.
However, temperatures have trended warmer ahead of the front, so
instability has followed suit. The latest HREF is showing
ensemble mean SBCAPE of 500-750 J/kg along the front with a
worst case scenario (ensemble max) of 1000-1250 J/kg. 300-400+
m2/s2 of 0-3 km SRH and well above 50 kt of deep layer shear
will create an environment capable of producing bowing
thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts in excess of 50 mph.
Hodographs don`t appear favorable for tornadogenesis, but given
the amount of shear and helicity at play, a few rotating
updrafts will be possible. The most likely scenario is
widespread gusty showers with a few embedded thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening.

Temperatures will fall so rapidly behind this front (approx 10
degrees/hour) that some models are showing a brief changeover
to a wintry mix of rain, snow, and sleet this afternoon/evening
(generally north of Highway 264). Chances of this happening are
higher near the NC/VA border, but latest HREF probs for wintry
precip types have increased. No accumulations or impacts are
expected given that 1) cold air will be chasing the moisture and
2) it was in the 80s yesterday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Our highs in the post-frontal airmass will still
be warmer than average, but we`ll feel a notable drop in
temperatures. Friday will reach the low 60s and we`ll rebound
to the mid 60s (coast) to mid 70s (inland) on Sunday and
Monday. A deep upper level trough will dig across the CONUS late
this weekend and reach the East Coast by early next week. At
the surface, a strong cold front will cross the area late
Monday/early Tuesday. This system will bring increased shower
and thunderstorm chances Sunday through Monday night. A
significantly cooler airmass will build in behind this front
with highs on Tuesday and Wednesday forecast to be in the 40s
and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Pred VFR conditions at the TAF sites through the morning hours with
breezy S-SW winds. However, patchy sea fog will sub-VFR conditions
to terminals along the Crystal Coast early this morning. LLWS will
also be a concern through 12-13Z with a strong low level jet in
place.

A strong cold front will push through ENC this afternoon bringing a
threat for strong to severe thunderstorms along the front. Guidance
showing the threat for storms between 16-18Z across western rtes and
18-20Z across eastern rtes. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary
concern with the thunderstorms along with sub-VFR conditions. The
front will also bring a northerly wind shift with a significant
surge with gusts to around 30 kt and potentially a brief period of
even higher gusts. The post frontal winds will bring a cross wind
component to EWN runway 4R/22L. MVFR cigs expected to persist for
several hours behind the front with lingering showers. Conditions
improve fairly quickly this evening as high pressure builds into the
region bringing a much drier airmass. Winds are also expected to
quickly diminish this evening.

Outlook...Pred VFR conditions expected Friday through Saturday. The
next frontal system is expected to impact ENC Sunday through Monday
bringing periods of sub-VFR conditions in showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Increasingly hazardous marine conditions are expected today due
to a strong cold front that will cross the area this
afternoon/evening.

Southwest winds at 20-25 kt with gusts to 20-30 kt will continue
through this morning. This afternoon, the winds will swiftly
veer to the north-northwest and surge to 30-40 kt with gusts to
35-50 kt late this afternoon/early this evening. Gusts in excess
of 45 kt are expected over a brief period of time this evening
and will be most likely across the Gulf Stream waters. Winds
will quickly improve behind the front with gusts forecast to
drop below 25 kt by late tonight. Seas will peak this
afternoon/evening at 5-8 ft.

Gale Warnings are in effect for all coastal waters, the
Pamlico Sound, and the northern rivers and sounds. Small Craft
Advisories are in effect for the inland rivers but a few Gale
force gusts are still possible, especially near the mouths of the
rivers.

The cold front will be accompanied by a risk of thunderstorms,
the strongest of which may produce enhanced wind gusts and brief
waterspouts.

Outlook: Winds and seas will lay down Friday and Saturday with more
benign marine conditions expected. Winds and seas will rebuild
Sunday into Monday associated with the next strong cold front.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EDT this
     evening for NCZ196-203>205.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for AMZ131-230-231.
     Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for AMZ135-152-154-156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT
     this evening for AMZ136-137.
     Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EDT this
     evening for AMZ150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...OJC
AVIATION...SK
MARINE...OJC