Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

890
FXUS62 KMHX 090004
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
804 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Gale Warning for the central coastal waters has been
extended out through 11pm tonight.


High Surf Advisory continues from Duck to Cape Lookout for
dangerous surf and potential for localized ocean overwash.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Breezy NE winds over ENC and low pressure passing offshore
will continue to bring rough surf and localized ocean overwash
concerns to portions of the Outer Banks into Thu.

2) Gradual warming trend expected in the wake of yesterday`s
front. Below normal temps will continue through FRI morning.
Near normal temps FRI, but continuing to warm to well above
normal this weekend and into next week.

3) Fire weather conditions will continue to be monitored closely
due to no appreciable rainfall, a dry airmass, and drying of
fuels as temps warm into next week.

Marine...Mix of gales and small craft advisory conditions over
all area waters through tonight. Though winds begin to relax
this evening, sea driven SCAs to follow the gales for coastal
waters, likely lasting into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Strong NE winds continue across the area with
strong high pressure to the north and low pressure offshore. Winds
have led to large waves which will continue through tonight and
early Thu. While winds will gradually ease overnight, wave
periods will increase, leading to wave runup concerns and the
potential for localized ocean overwash at particularly
vulnerable locations along the OBX, mainly at times of high tide
(around 1 AM tonight). High surf advisory continues from Duck
to Cape Lookout.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Cool high pressure builds down NECONUS before
sinking S of the FA FRI. This will keep a NEerly flow regime in
place through the remainder of the work-week, continuing to
advect a relatively cool maritime airmass over ENC through then.
MinTs tonight in the upper 30s inland where skies are expected
to remain clear and winds will be lighter, and around mid 40s
Inner Banks where stratus advecting onshore and slightly
stronger winds will dampen cooling. Some potential for frost
development overnight and tomorrow morning inland, especially
should winds decouple, though think winds should stay mixed
enough to limit frost potential. Building low level thicknesses
through the end of the work week allows warming temps despite
the light NEerly flow regime, upper 50s and 60s THU and mid 60s
to mid 70s FRI. Sun afternoon, stout SFC high rotates off the
Mid-Atlantic coast, veering local winds more Eerly SUN and then
becoming Serly early next week allowing further warming; MaxTs
approaching 90 inland at the end of the forecast period (next
WED).

KEY MESSAGE 3...Further offshore solutions of a weaker low
traveling along yesterday`s front and a lower likelihood of
a coastal trough developing has continued to trend the late-
week forecast drier. Relaxing winds through the remainder of the
work-week should preclude any fire weather headlines, but the
precip-free and warming forecast will lead to the rapid drying
of fuels through the long term. This will lead to the potential
for fire weather concerns next week when stronger winds are
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Northeasterly winds are expected to persist over the next 24
hours across ENC. These winds may be gusty at times, but in
general the risk of gusty winds is expected to continue to
decrease.

Low-level moisture trapped within the northeasterly flow has
supported periods of MVFR CIGs across the Outer Banks for much
of the day today. As the low-level flow becomes easterly later
this evening, guidance suggests those low CIGs may begin to
advect westward towards the remainder of ENC. Not all guidance
shows this, though, which leads to lowered confidence in whether
or not sub-VFR CIGs will develop tonight. For now, the TAFs
will show VFR conditions tonight, but with a SCT025 layer to
show when MVFR CIGs may develop. Any low clouds that manage to
advect inland tonight should scour out to a FEW/SCT cumulus
layer tomorrow morning.

Outlook: A risk of sub-VFR conditions may once again develop
Thursday night, this time due to BR/FG. European ensemble (ENS)
has a 10-20% chance of seeing impactful fog Saturday morning
with clear skies and light to calm winds forecast after
dewpoints rise late Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Marine observations over the warmer waters from Oregon Inlet to
Ocracoke Inlet continue to show gale-force gusts ongoing at
this time, which is not being handled well by model guidance.
While winds are still expected to gradually lay down below gale-
force tonight, it appears it will take a bit longer than
previously forecast. In light of this, the Gale Warning for the
above- mentioned coastal waters has been extended out through
11pm.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Latest obs show NE winds 15-25 kt across
the nearshore waters and 20-30 kt gusting 30-40 kt across the
outer waters, with seas 7-12 ft. Strong high pressure to the
north will continue to ridge into the Carolinas keeping a tight
gradient across the area. Mix of small craft and gale force
conditions continue across the waters. Winds will gradually ease
tonight and into Thu, 15-25 kt. This will bring an end to the
gales across the Pamlico Sound and central waters by this
evening, though gales will likely persist across our Sern waters
into the first part of tonight. SCAs across all other waters
will also remain in place as well through this evening and
tonight. Seas will remain elevated at 7-12 ft with periods
increasing closer to 9-10 sec. SCA conditions will continue Thu
with NE winds 15-25 kt and seas 5-10 ft.

Outlook: 6+ ft seas will remain in place across our coastal
waters through at least Saturday. Winds become generally
10-15kt, still out of the N-NE THU night. 10kt or less, briefly
becoming SEerly across all waters FRI as high pressure sinks
south of regional waters. Another ridge shifts across NECONUS
over the weekend once again leading NEerly winds SAT night and
SUN, continuing to veer to become S and then SWerly early next
week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196-
     203>205.
     High Surf Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for NCZ196-203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ131-
     230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ137.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ150.
     Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ152-154.
     Gale Warning until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CQD
AVIATION...RM/RJ
MARINE...RM/CQD