Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

191
FXUS62 KMHX 061748
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1248 PM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Severe potential increasing for interior eastern NC this
afternoon and early evening.

PoPs tweaked based on radar trends

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread showers and isolated to scattered severe
thunderstorms ahead of a cold front this afternoon and evening.

2) Cooler, drier, and more seasonable behind the frontal
passage this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Prefrontal trough right ahead of a strong cold
front is currently over the inner coastal plain and is slowly
progressing eastward. This is bringing robust forcing into a
region with around 1kJ/kg of CAPE, deep shear of 30-35 knots,
and increasing moisture. Dewpoints are now in the low 70s for
portions of eastern NC, especially east of hwy 17. This has
increased the available moisture/instability, and as a result
the threat of severe weather has INCREASED for this afternoon
and evening inland. SPC has upgraded portions of the CWA to a
"Slight" (2/5) risk of severe weather. Main concerns are
damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph. Some small hail with the
cooler air aloft and mid-level lapse rates 6-7 C/km can`t be
ruled out. In addition, there is a low-end risk for a brief,
weak, isolated tornado or two. Areas that have more backed winds
out of the SSE or SE as the front approaches would see a more
pronounced chance of tornado formation as that would locally
enhance low level SRH values.

We could see localized QPF values of >1.5", but at this point
flooding potential is low as we have been very dry as of late.

The main threat window runs from early afternoon to around
sunset inland, lingering slightly longer over the Outer Banks
but with a diminishing severe risk as instability collapses. The
main front sweeps offshore late tonight with any remaining
showers exiting the OBX around or shortly after midnight. There
will likely be a delay between the main front coming through and
the dry air surge, so would not be surprised to see a period of
low stratus Fri night into Sat morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A more seasonably dry airmass will be ushered
in for the weekend behind the front. Expect a return to mostly
sunny skies and highs in the upper 60s to low 70s Sat, then
cooler yet for Sun with 60-65. Lows will be in the 40s, with
some 30s for some of the normally colder spots. We will have to
monitor the temp forecast for any frost concerns Sunday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecast confidence is moderate over the next 24 hours.

A strengthening cold front will move east across central and eastern
NC today, eventually moving offshore by tonight. Scattered SHRA and
TSRA will accompany the front, some of which could produce wind
gusts in excess of 40kt. There will also be a risk of significant
reductions to VIS (LIFR/IFR). While not likely, a low-end tornado
risk is present as well, mainly for inland TAF sites. Ahead of the
front and TSRA, gradient/mixing winds are gusting up to 20-25kt
out of the south.

The most uncertain part of the forecast is CIGs. CIG heights have
varied between 1000ft and 4000ft early this afternoon, and this
will probably continue to decrease until the front gets closer. In
the wake of the cold front, guidance insists on a period of low
CIGs due to residual low- level moisture. During this time,
CIGs may fall as low as IFR/LIFR for several hours until late
morning Saturday.

Outlook: An extended period of VFR conditions is expected after
today`s TSRA as a much drier airmass builds in across the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Increasing southerly winds through all area waters as a cold
front approaches from the west later today. Gusts should remain
generally below 25 knots ahead of the front. Behind the front,
winds switch to the north/northwest, gusting to near 20 knots.
Gusts exceeding 25 kt will likely be concentrated beyond 20nm
offshore, so no headlines are in effect. Seas will persist at
3-5 ft nearshore and near 4-6 ft offshore through today. The
cold front moves through this evening into the overnight hours
for our waters, and ahead of this boundary strong thunderstorms
capable of gusty winds and a brief waterspout are possible.
Behind the front, high builds in and winds gradually lighten
through Saturday.

Outlook (Saturday night through Tuesday): High builds in this
weekend into next week, keeping winds below 20 kts and skies
rain-free. Despite the decrease in winds, elevated seas may
linger through the weekend for 20-60nm zones at around 4-6 feet,
and an isolated 6 foot wave is possible just within 20nm
primarily for waters in Raleigh Bay.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MS/RJ
AVIATION...RM/RJ
MARINE...MS/RJ