Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

591
FXUS62 KMHX 091900
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
300 PM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Gradual warming through the rest of the week, peaking on
Thursday and Friday.

2) More unsettled pattern expected Friday through the weekend as
front stalls near the area.

3) Back to a more typical summertime pattern next week with high
draped over the southeast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Latest surface analysis shows high pressure now
sitting off the coast of the mid-Atlantic while broad ridging
continues to expand over much of the CONUS` southern tier. Winds
across the area are now out of the south to southeast and
temperatures have climbed a few degrees from yesterday into the
mid to upper 80s. Dews have also jumped as well, into the low to
mid 60s.

Temperatures peak tomorrow and Friday as flow turns more
southwesterly and low-level thicknesses peak, with highs in the
low to mid 90s. Dew points also peak on Friday, resulting in
maximum heat index values returning to between 100-105. At this
time the odds of issuing a Heat Advisory look to be less than
10%, but trends will continue to be monitored.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Mid- level subsidence aloft will keep
precipitation chances very subdued this afternoon despite the
uptick in instability, although cannot completely rule out an
isolated shower or two along typical sound and sea breeze
convergence zones. Shortwave approaches from the central plains
tomorrow, weakening the ridge and aiding in a slightly more
favorable environment for isolated to widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms.

Friday the high continues to shift offshore and a front sweeps
south through the Mid-Atlantic region. Ahead of this front,
continuous warm, moist advection in southerly flow will help
build PWATs to near 2". This will bring scattered to numerous
sea breeze showers/tstorms back in the forecast. After some
waffling the past few runs, guidance has come into far better
agreement showing the front largely bisecting eastern NC by
Friday, although a small minority still shows it stalling
farther north along the VA border. Wherever the boundary ends
up setting up will be the focus for the highest risk of training
showers and thunderstorms contributing to a localized flash
flooding threat. Forecast effective shear has trended down on
Friday to generally less than 15 kt, so the risk of any stronger
storms is less than 5%.

The front lifts back north Saturday into Sunday as a shortwave
moves through the region. This shortwave will bring slightly
better chances for showers and thunderstorms this weekend. Like
Friday, flooding concerns remain the primary risk with PWATs
still around 2" but effective shear slightly higher at 15-20
kt. Available instability remains a question mark for that day
given potential convective evolution on Friday and the risk for
lingering convective debris overnight and/or low stratus that
may develop on the cooler side of the frontal boundary. The NBM
probabilistic envelope has shifted slightly cooler for Saturday
but still remains high compared to both deterministic and MOS
guidance, suggesting a cooler and therefore lower instability
solution will prevail. If more instability can develop, the
modest uptick in shear may provide a slightly more favorable
environment for an isolated stronger storm or two.

There is higher confidence on a low- CAPE outcome Sunday. While
heavy showers and some thunderstorms are possible with the
shortwave, the severe threat appears to be more muted.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A more typical summertime pattern will settle in
again early next week as a large high sits over the southeast.
Based on current model outputs, we have enough moisture and
instability present for some afternoon/evening sea breeze
convection early next week, but there are no larger scale
synoptic features of note that would promote any additional
forcing.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions in place across eastern NC as high pressure
shifts offshore and a more typical warm season pattern takes
hold under light south to southeasterly winds. Winds will
gradually veer southwesterly overnight as high moves even
farther offshore. Where winds decouple there will once again be
a risk of fog or low stratus, but at all terminals the risk of
this is 10-20% and opted to keep out of TAFs this cycle.

Breezier day tomorrow as front approaches the north, and a few
gusts to 15-20 kt are likely both inland and across OBX
terminals especially after 18z. Expecting iso to widely
scattered showers and storms tomorrow, although the risk of a
strong storm is minimal.

NOTE: AMD NOT SKED has been appended to the EWN TAFs as the
site is not transmitting through normal channels. The site is
still reporting via telephone so it will be monitored, but not
as frequently as when it is completely operational. The next
closest ASOS is at Cherry Point (KNKT).

Outlook (Friday through Monday): A front is expected to
approach the region and stall Friday and Saturday bringing a
chance of showers and thunderstorms with periods of sub-VFR
conditions possible. Shower and isolated thunderstorm threat
extends into Sunday before more typical summertime weather
returns Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Benign marine conditions ongoing this afternoon with winds
generally out of the south to southeast at 5-10 kt and seas
around 2-3 feet. Quiet conditions expected through tonight, but
conditions deteriorate slightly tomorrow as southwest winds
increase ahead of an approaching front. SW winds will peak
around 15-20 kt late Thurs into Friday morning, and a few gusts
to 25 kt are possible across the Albemarle Sound and northern
waters. Probabilities of 25+ kt are around 20% and a potential
advisory was deferred for the midnight shift`s consideration.

Outlook (Fri through Mon): A coastal trough may also set up
Thursday night into Friday, bringing increased tstorm chances
along the Gulf Stream. Front bisects area waters on Friday then
lifts northward on Saturday. Sub-SCA conditions expected but
shower and thunderstorm risk will continue at least into Sunday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MS/RJ
AVIATION...MS
MARINE...MS/RJ