Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

846
FXUS62 KMHX 070030
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
830 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Heat Advisory has been allowed to expire.

The chance of thunderstorms has been decreased for the
remainder of the night.

Increased PoPs through Wednesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A more active pattern persists into midweek, with showers
and storms expected each day, some of which could bring gusty
winds and heavy rain.

2) Another round of dangerously high heat and humidity builds
mid to late week into the weekend.

3) A very unstable atmosphere develops in tandem with the high
heat and humidity mid to late in the week, and could produce a
few strong to severe thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Thunderstorm activity has greatly diminished
over the past 1-2 hours, with the last remaining activity
pushing through Pitt and Martin Counties. Despite some decent
cores recently, weakening low-level lapse rates and increasing
CIN should support a reduced risk of severe weather the
remainder of the evening. Additionally, given how much the
airmass has been worked over by previous convection, the risk of
thunderstorms now appears lower overnight that previously
thought, and the forecast has been updated to reflect this
expectation.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: An active precip pattern persists into Wed
as a series of shortwaves, inland troughing, and a very slow
moving backdoor front will converge to produce higher than climo
coverage of showers and storms each afternoon to early evening.
Guidance continues to suggest PoPs remain around the 50-80%
range each afternoon and evening. While PoP`s will be higher
than they have been the past several days, precip will certainly
be very hit or miss across ENC, but much welcome none the less.

Have seen PWATS jump to 2+ inches across ENC today with this
very moist airmass remaining in place over the next few days.
Combined with ample heating across ENC, instability will rapidly
build each day with MLCAPE values generally expected to be
between 2000-3000+ J/kg each afternoon. While instability will
certainly be plentiful, deep layer shear will not be, as wind
shear struggles to get above 25 kts. This will likely limit any
significant storm organization over the next few days but cannot
rule out some wet microbursts or stronger winds (40-60 mph)
within the strongest storms along the aforementioned seabreeze
and surface trough. Because of this, SPC has outlined a good
portion of ENC in a Marginal Risk (1/5) of severe tstorms
tomorrow. Another round of decent covg of afternoon
showers/storms possible Wed as the aforementioned boundaries may
still be in place. In addition to the severe threat today and
tomorrow, there will also be a heavy rain threat with any
thunderstorm that develops as well given the high PWAT`s (2" +)
and slow storm motions which could lead to some localized
flooding mainly in poor drainage and urban areas. As a result
WPC also has much of the area under a marginal risk for
excessive rainfall over the next two days as well.

Beyond mid week, PoPs return back to climo (20-40%) as more
typical seabreeze showers/storms return. Hts/thicknesses slowly
build in the process as ridging begins to build once again, with
heat indices 100-105 in the forecast.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Aforementioned ridging builds mid to late week
into the weekend, as ensemble mean heights rise back to above
normal, and forecast temps reach well into the 90s, pushing heat
indices to potentially at or above 105F again as a very humid
atmosphere will be in place as well. EFI for both Min/MaxTs are
pushing into the 80th percentile esp late in the week.

KEY MESSAGE 3...With the aforementioned high heat and humidity
expected, a very unstable atmosphere develops per med range
guidance hinting at ML CAPES aoa 3.5k J/KG, and SFC based
instability between 4-5k J/KG. As is typical this time of year,
deep layer shear will not be too strong, but any storms that can
develop with some upper level support could produce strong
downdraft/microburst winds and very heavy rain characterized by
PW`s exceeding 2".

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TSRA activity is finally winding down across ENC, with the last
remaining activity focused around KPGV. Given how widespread
the TSRA were earlier today, it now appears the airmass will be
less supportive of TSRA overnight. The risk of TSRA is then
expected to increase again on Tuesday, especially after 16z. Any
TSRA that develop on Tuesday will be capable of 30-45kt winds
and significant reductions to VIS.

With much of the area receiving rain earlier today, the ground
will be very moist. Light winds plus the moist ground/near
surface layer may support a period of reduced VIS due to
BR/MIFG/FG. Given the expected conditions, the potential exists
for a deeper, more impactful FG to develop with IFR/LIFR
conditions. For now, the TAFs reflect the most likely scenario
(MVFR VIS), but just be aware of a reasonable worst case
scenario of lower conditions.

Outlook (Tue through Fri): Shortwave energy tracking cross the
region into midweek brings good chances for showers and
thunderstorms and potential for sub-VFR conditions into Tue,
possibly into Wed as well. Beyond mid week, more typical iso to
widely sct activity expected as ridging rebuilds into ENC.

&&

.MARINE...
Steady 10-15 kt SW`rly winds with gusts up around 15-20 kts is
noted across our waters this afternoon while seas along the
coastal waters remain around 2-4 ft. These conditions should
continue to persist today as Bermuda high remains offshore and a
front slowly begins to approach. As this front begins to get a
little closer tonight winds especially across the Pamlico Sound
and coastal waters south of Oregon inlet should increase
slightly with gusts up to 25 kts possible across the
aforementioned waters. As a result have kept the SCA`s up across
these waters starting around 10PM tonight and persisting into
Tue morning. Seas will also build to about 3-5 ft during this
timeframe with some 6 ft seas possible 20+ NM away from shore.

Outlook (Tue through Fri): The gradient relaxes Tue morning
with winds returning to 5-15 kt. Weakening front moves into the
waters on Wed, though as is typical in July, the front appears
to wash out, with any N`rly flow behind it short lived with
return flow developing as early as Wed evening. SW`rly winds
look to strengthen some on Fri as a thermal trough strengthens
across the area bringing our next potential threat for SCA`s to
the waters.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ135-156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Tuesday
     for AMZ152-154.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RM/RCF/RJ
AVIATION...RM/RCF
MARINE...RCF/RJ