Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

920
FXUS62 KMHX 060732
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
332 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Have adjusted PoPs based off latest trends in guidance.

Have issued a Heat Advisory for the SW`rn zones for today.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Oppressive heat and humidity continues today across ENC.

2) A more active pattern takes shape today and persists into
midweek, with showers and storms expected each day, some of
which could bring gusty winds and heavy rain.

3) Another round of dangerously high heat and humidity builds
mid to late week into the weekend.

4) A very unstable atmosphere develops in tandem with the high
heat and humidity mid to late in the week, and could produce a
few strong to severe thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A warm and muggy morning today as temps
generally remain around the 70s to low 80s across ENC as of this
update. Don`t expect temps to dip much more by daybreak as a
weak warm front has lifted north of the area with just some
isolated low and mid level cloud cover noted inland and some
isolated showers and thunderstorms noted across our coastal
waters.

As we get later into today, another warm and muggy day is
expected with ridging aloft decaying across the region and a
surface trough developing this afternoon across central NC. An
inland moving seabreeze will also develop later this morning.
Have blended in some Hi-Res and MOS guidance with the NBM temps
today which has lowered MaxTs by a degree or two especially
along the OBX and immediate coast. Shower and thunderstorm
activity is forecast to develop later this morning and afternoon
along the seabreeze and to the west along the aforementioned
surface trough which should help to keep highs today slightly
cooler than previous days. Given all of the above, have a temp
gradient from W to E across the CWA with mid 90s noted across
the western Coastal Plain which should see the most sun today
and upper 80s noted along the coast and OBX where showers and
thunderstorms start the earliest. With dewpoints in the 70s,
this is forecast to bring heat indices around 100-105F across
inland zones today with the highest heat indices noted across
our SW`rn zones. As a result have issued a heat advisory across
Duplin, inland Onslow, Lenoir, Jones, and Greene Counties as
these areas look to remain precip free the longest and have the
most confidence in heat indices reaching 105F here. The one
spoiler to the heat advisory will be the potential for shower
and thunderstorm activity to develop earlier in the day across
these counties.

KEY MESSAGE 2...An active precip pattern finally sets up again
today and persists into Wed as a series of shortwaves, inland
troughing, and a very slow moving backdoor front will converge
to produce higher than climo coverage of showers and storms each
afternoon to early evening. Guidance continues to suggest PoPs
remain around the 50-70% range each afternoon and evening.
While PoP`s will be higher than they have been the past several
days, precip will certainly be very hit or miss across ENC, but
much welcome none the less.

Will see PWATS jump to 2+ inches across ENC starting today with
this very moist airmass remaining in place over the next few
days. Combined with ample heating across ENC, instability will
rapidly build each day with MLCAPE values generally expected to
be between 2000-3000+ J/kg each afternoon. While instability
will certainly be plentiful, deep layer shear will not be, as
wind shear struggles to get above 25 kts. This will likely limit
any significant storm organization over the next few days but
cannot rule out some wet microbursts or stronger winds (40-60
mph) within the strongest storms along the aforementioned
seabreeze and surface trough. Because of this, SPC has outlined
a good portion of ENC in a Marginal Risk (1/5) of severe tstorms
today and tomorrow. Another round of decent covg of afternoon
showers/storms possible Wed as the aforementioned boundaries may
still be in place. In addition to the severe threat today and
tomorrow, there will also be a heavy rain threat with any
thunderstorm that develops as well given the high PWAT`s (2" +)
which could lead to some localized flooding mainly in poor
drainage and urban areas. As a result WPC also has much of the
area under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall over the next
two days as well.

Beyond mid week, PoPs return back to climo (20-40%) as more
typical seabreeze showers/storms return. Hts/thicknesses slowly
build in the process as ridging begins to build once again, with
heat indices 100-105 in the forecast.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Aforementioned ridging builds mid to late week
into the weekend, as ensemble mean heights rise back to above
normal, and forecast temps reach well into the 90s, pushing heat
indices to potentially at or above 105F again as a very humid
atmosphere will be in place as well. EFI for both Min/MaxTs are
pushing into the 80th percentile esp late in the week.

KEY MESSAGE 4...With the aforementioned high heat and humidity
expected, a very unstable atmosphere develops per med range
guidance hinting at ML CAPES aoa 3.5k J/KG, and SFC based
instability between 4-5k J/KG. As is typical this time of year,
deep layer shear will not be too strong, but any storms that can
develop with some upper level support could produce strong
downdraft/microburst winds and very heavy rain characterized by
PW`s exceeding 2".

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Did not make many changes to the TAF forecasts on this update as
primarily VFR conditions are noted across ENC this morning. The
lone exception is across SW`rn portions of the CWA as some
patchy fog due to a nearby fire has developed bringing IFR vis
to the OAJ terminal. Expect on and off patchy fog to remain
around OAJ and adjacent areas into daybreak before dissipating
with VFR conditions forecast elsewhere. Prevailing southerly
shifting to southwesterly winds at generally 5-10 kts gusting to
the occasional 15kts. Expecting increasing chances for sub-VFR
conditions later this morning and afternoon as a combination of
an inland moving seabreeze and a surface trough to the west
should kick start scattered showers and thunderstorms later this
afternoon and evening. Expect any brief sub-VFR conditions to
abate by this evening as activity dissipates and skies clear
tonight. Once again, could see patchy fog due to the ongoing
fire in Duplin county around OAJ tonight.

Outlook (Mon night through Fri): Shortwave energy tracking
cross the region into midweek brings good chances for showers
and thunderstorms and potential for sub-VFR conditions into Tue,
possibly into Wed as well. Beyond mid week, more typical iso to
widely sct activity expected as ridging rebuilds into ENC.

&&

.MARINE...
Steady 10-15 kt SW`rly winds with gusts up around 15-20 kts is
noted across our waters this morning while seas along the
coastal waters remain around 2-4 ft. These conditions should
continue to persist today as Bermuda high remains offshore and a
front slowly begins to approach. As this front begins to get a
little closer tonight winds especially across the Pamlico Sound
and coastal waters south of Oregon inlet should increase
slightly with gusts up to 25 kts possible across the
aforementioned waters. As a result have kept the SCA`s up across
these waters starting around 10PM tonight and persisting into
Tue morning. Seas will also build to about 3-5 ft during this
timeframe with some 6 ft seas possible 20+ NM away from shore.

Outlook (Tue through Fri): The gradient relaxes Tue morning
with winds returning to 5-15 kt. Weakening front moves into the
waters on Wed, though as is typical in July, the front appears
to wash out, with any N`rly flow behind it short lived with
return flow developing as early as Wed evening. SW`rly winds
look to strengthen some on Fri as a thermal trough strengthens
across the area bringing our next potential threat for SCA`s to
the waters.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     NCZ079-090>092-198.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
     Tuesday for AMZ135-156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Tuesday
     for AMZ152-154.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RCF
AVIATION...RTE/RCF
MARINE...RCF