Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

237
FXUS62 KMHX 292254
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
654 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unsettled weather continues today and Sunday as stalled
front across the region slowly dissipates.

2) Increasing mid-level ridging next week cuts down on rain
chances but brings a return of uncomfortable heat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A stalled front continues to bisect the area
this evening. Convection beginning to wane with loss of heating
this evening, mainly relegated to the SW forecast area. 12z/29
KMHX sounding has PW near record values for the day at 2.27" and
could continue to see locally heavy rainfall where storms train.
The front will dissipate overnight with convection primarily
along the sea breeze Sunday afternoon. Guidance showing a bit
more instability tomorrow with MLCAPE peaking around 1500J/Kg
but also shows descent coverage of mid and high clouds
throughout the day as moist SW flow persists aloft, so maximum
instability may not be realized keeping convection more isolated
in nature.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Shower and thunderstorm coverage wanes next
week as upper ridging builds into the region from the west.
Cannot completely rule out an isolated shower or storm through
the period along sea and sound breezes although activity will
likely be short-lived. The main story will be the building heat
with highs expected to climb into the 90s early next week and
peaking in the mid to upper 90s as we move into the middle of
the week. Heat headlines may be needed as early as Wednesday
with forecast heat indices climbing above 105, especially along
the coast and inland counties along and south of US70.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
# --- AMD NOT SKED has been appended to EWN TAFs as the site is
not transmitting through normal channels. The site is still
reporting via telephone so it will be monitored, but not as
frequently as when it is completely operational. The next
closest ASOS is at Cherry Point (KNKT). --- #

A front remains stalled across the terminals early this evening
with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms bringing
periods of sub- VFR conditions to most terminals. Best chances
at OAJ. The showers expected to dissipate this evening but with
abundant low level moisture in place, expect fog and stratus to
develop after midnight bringing areas of sub-VFR conditions
with VLIFR conditions possible across inland terminals. Stratus
will likely linger through much of Sunday morning before we
return to VFR conditions around mid day. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms possible Sunday afternoon, primarily
along the sea breeze.

Outlook: High pressure builds in from the west next week resulting
in more benign flying conditions. Iso shower or storm cannot be
ruled out along area sea and sound breezes.

&&

.MARINE...
A front stalled across the waters will slowly dissipate
overnight into Sunday with light and variable winds mainly less
than 10 kt and seas around 1-3 ft. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms expected to redevelop over the coastal waters
south of Cape Hatteras overnight into Sunday morning. Cannot
rule out an isolated stronger storm or two capable of producing
gusts in excess of 35 kt.

Outlook: Latter half of the weekend and early next week, front
pushes offshore and away from the area as high pressure builds
in from the W allowing for more benign marine conditions and
lower chances for precip.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SK/MS
AVIATION...CQD/SK/MS
MARINE...SK/MS