Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

115
FXUS62 KMHX 042300
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
700 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Removed thunder from most of ENC for tonight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unsettled weather pattern persists through Wednesday as
multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms impact ENC bringing
a low end flash flooding risk.

2) Return to a more typical summertime pattern Thursday onwards.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...There is little change in the synoptic setup as
an upper level trough currently in the Tennessee River Valley
has stalled across the area and will remain there into midweek
before weakening and eventually getting absorbed by a passing
northern stream trough late Wed into Thurs. This should keep
the moisture channel open from the Gulf into at least midweek as
upper level southerly winds remain in place advecting moisture
northwards. A few shortwaves will transit around the base of
the upper trough and lift north through the Carolinas through
Wed. As the upper trough dissipates/gets absorbed later this
week, any mid level forcing shifts farther inland away from ENC.

A stagnant surface front to our west will move little before
dissipating on Wed. Given moist, southerly flow across the
region combined with high PWATs (2.3+ inches), any thunderstorms
that do form have the potential to produce heavy rainfall. Any
addition areas where localized flash flooding could occur are
confined to areas along the Crystal Coast and along the OBX
south of Oregon Inlet.

KEY MESSAGE 2...By late week the area returns to climo or below
climo PoPs as a lack of mid level shortwaves or significant
forcing will be noted across Eastern NC. This will likely
result in daily chances for showers and thunderstorms along the
sea-breeze, but once again these chances should be isolated at
best given the overall setup. After a cool start to the week
temperatures begin to rebound back into the upper 80s to low
90s inland and mid 80s along the OBX.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mainly VFR has returned to the TAFs early this evening. Moist
southerly flow with nearly calm winds continues across the area
tonight which may support shallow fog development. Have capped
at 5SM but if winds can sufficiently decouple late, fog and low
stratus may become a greater concern before sunrise. A few
showers on Wed but few and far between and have not included in
the forecast attm.

Outlook (Wednesday night through Sunday): Precip chances and
thus the threat for sub-VFR conditions look to decrease beyond
Wed and into the weekend as high pressure builds into the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas continue to subside this afternoon as a stalled
front to our west has continued to weaken with high pressure
ridging building into the area. Ongoing S-SW winds at 10-15 kts
and seas 2-4 ft are noted across across the coastal waters. As
the aforementioned front gradually dissipates today and high
pressure ridging builds farther over the area, winds and seas
will remain sub-SCA, with SSW winds 5-10 kts and seas 2-4 ft
through tonight.

Outlook (Wednesday through Saturday): Expect more benign winds
and seas for the period as high pressure remains the dominant
feature across the region. Winds generally remain below 15 kts
and seas persist around 2-4 ft into the weekend.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-199-204-205.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DAG/TL
AVIATION...DAG/TL
MARINE...DAG