Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

448
FXUS62 KMHX 030142
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
942 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
NO changes, aviation disco updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rain tapers off this evening into tonight as a coastal low
tracks northeastwards while deepening. This low will drag a
frontal system through the area tonight bringing cooler and
drier conditions.

2) Cold front moves through later next week bringing gusty winds
and increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Severe
potential exists, but confidence is low.

Marine: Small Craft Advisories in effect today into Sunday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Latest surface analysis shows a low that is
gradually deepening about 100 miles east of Cape Hatteras.
Light to moderate rain is spread over the region. As the
afternoon goes on and the low shifts further away, the
expectation is for rain to become more scattered in nature.
Meanwhile, a cold front is currently near Charlotte and
Greensboro and moving east, as noted by NE`rly sfc winds east of
CLT and GSO, and NW`rly sfc winds to the west. Rainfall totals
have been on the lower end of guidance thanks to little to no
instability and a more offshore track of the low. MRMS analysis
shows 0.25"-0.5" of rain fallen over much of the region, with
isolated higher values over N Craven, Beaufort, and Hyde
counties where a stronger shower moved through early this
morning.

Front passes through tonight, with high settling into the
Carolinas tomorrow morning. CAA behind this front will help
temps cool to the 40s inland, near 50 along the coast tomorrow
morning. After tonight, we do see a gradual warming trend as
N`rly winds switch to a S`rly direction allowing for WAA to
overspread ENC.

KEY MESSAGE 2...We continue to monitor Thursday next week for
the potential for showers and strong to potentially severe
thunderstorms. The upper level pattern has come into better
agreement over the past 24 hours with a strong positively
tilted trough in the Plains taking on a more negative tilt as
it tracks over the Eastern Seaboard on Thurs. At the surface, a
wave of low pressure will develop along an approaching cold
front and deepen as it tracks NE`wards into the Northeastern
CONUS while the aforementioned cold front tracks across the
region. EFI and machine learning severe probs are highest in the
Mid-Atlantic and SE US Thursday. In addition to this, latest
guidance continues suggesting this frontal passage occurs Thurs
afternoon and evening. The majority of deterministic models and
ensembles favor this afternoon and evening progression of the
front. The outlier at this point is the ECMWF AI model, which
stubbornly continues to show a morning passage. However, looking
at the EPS AI, the deterministic model seems to be an outlier
even within the ensemble members, as the EPS AI mean wind
directions suggest the later passage. Given the timing,
sufficient instability and strong shear should be in place which
would bring the potential for stronger thunderstorms to
develop. For now it is too far out to determine coverage and
severity of storms with this frontal passage.

An interesting development that has come to light is the
potential for storms to develop behind the front (anafrontal
precip. Should this occur, we would be more stable at the
surface where convection would occur and this would decrease
severe probs.


Regardless of what the instability looks like, we are
forecasting gusty S/SW winds out ahead of the front, supported
by ensemble and AI guidance. Current fcst calls for frequent
gusts around 30 mph inland and 35-40 mph along the coast.

There is still a lot to unpack with this system that is 5 days
out. We will continue to closely monitor the situation and give
updates as more information becomes available.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mixed bag from IFR to VFR across ENC as band of stratiform
precip gets dragged across much of the SEern coast by weak low
pressure system well offshore E of the NC/VC coast. Conditions
are expected to quickly improve this evening when it comes to
precip and CIGs after 00-01z as low offshore departs and inland
frontal boundary decays, clearing skies from W to E. However,
there is a window where winds go light and variable, perhaps
briefly decoupling, which could allow the moisture from
today`s/tonight`s rain to saturate the low levels and produce
some fog. Have mixed in some 5sm BR for the overnight hours
during this calm period across most terminals. Should this fog
develop, it will also clear from W to E through the early
morning hours as NWerly winds pick up. VFR under SKC expected
for all terminals through Sunday with clear skies and NWerly
winds ~10G15kt through peak heating.

Outlook: Predominantly VFR flight conditions should persist into
early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
# --- Update --- #
Winds have been under-performing with weaker low centered
offshore than guidance was previously suggesting. Have updated
winds. Lower winds have allowed the cancellation of CA for
Albemarle, Croatan, and Roanoke Sounds and the Alligator River.

Previous: A deepening low currently located offshore Cape
Hatteras tracks NE`wards and departs the region tonight. This
has resulted in persistent light to moderate rain and
strengthening northerly winds. Current obs show wind gusts 20-30
knots across the region, with potential for gusts up to 35
knots near warmer Gulf Stream waters. The wind forecast has
trended down a couple knots with the further passage of the
coastal low, but all Small Craft Advisories remain in effect
this afternoon.

Seas are currently 3-5 ft for nearshore waters, 5-7 ft for
20-60nm zones. Seas are expected to build a bit more, to 4-7 ft
nearshore, 6-8 ft offshore later this evening. This low then
quickly pushes off to the north and east tonight into Sunday
allowing winds to back to a NW`rly direction and lower to 10-15
kts by Sun with gusts decreasing to 15-20 kts. Seas will
continue to remain elevated across warmer Gulf Stream waters as
well, but should lower below 6 ft for nearshore zones by Sun
afternoon. As a result, this will end all SCA`s across our
waters by Sun afternoon.

Outlook: High pressure settling to our east will bring
south/southwest winds at 5-15 kts from Sunday night into mid
week next week. Next cold front moves through late week, with
increasing winds and seas expected both ahead and behind it.
This system is 5 days out which carries a higher level of
uncertainty, but there is potential for gale force
south/southwesterly gusts ahead of the front.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Sunday through Sunday
     evening for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ135-156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ152-154.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RCF/RJ
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...CEB/RCF/RJ