Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

085
FXUS62 KMHX 261153
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
653 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Gale Warnings issued for waters between Cape Lookout and Cape
Hatteras. Small Craft Advisory reissued for waters north of
Oregon Inlet.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Increasing clouds with rain ongoing and extending into
tonight.

2) Growing signal for a fast moving low traversing the eastern
CONUS early next week bringing a risk of brief rainfall.

Aviation...Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions are expected tonight
through Friday.

Marine...SCA conditions expected today into tomorrow with Gales
likely between the Capes over Gulf Stream waters. Next period
of SCA conditions possible next Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...ENC remains in steady southwesterly flow this
morning with persistent high pressure offshore and cold front
associated with Arctic Canadian low pressure extending into the
Great Lakes and Midwest. Band of light rainfall is transiting
our northern tier of counties aided by lift from an embedded
shortwave in zonal flow aloft.

Cold front associated with the Canadian low will approach from
the west today into Friday. Main slug of precipitation is more
likely later this morning and Thur night as main trough axis
and surface frontal boundary make their approach. Some limited
thunder potential will be confined to near the Gulf Stream, but
there is a low risk some convection could graze the Crystal
Coast overnight into Friday morning. Heavier precipitation is
favored closer the VA border, but odds of at least a quarter
inch of rain sit between 80-90% and 50-60% for half an inch.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Once the Friday front clears through a few dry
days are expected for the weekend as high pressure extends in
from the north. The next potential system will come through the
area early next week as a quick moving low zips across the
central plains and mid-Atlantic. Precipitation amounts look to
be a bit lower for this system compared to today`s. Enough
spread remains in model guidance on timing that chance PoPs were
maintained this morning.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A warm front is slowly lifting north through ENC this morning,
and is forecast to be just north of the area later today. Along
and north of the front, there will continue to be periods of RA
and MVFR VIS (3-5SM). CIGs should continue to steadily lower as
well, although this has been a bit slower to occur than
previously forecast. CIGs will probably hover around 2-5k ft for
much of the day. Later this evening, a cold front will push
south through the area, and this is expected to be accompanied
by widespread IFR/LIFR CIGs along with reduced VIS in RA and BR.
Confidence in the timing of LIFR is highest at KISO and KPGV,
and I`ve added that to the TAFs there. Further south, LIFR is
likely, but confidence is lower regarding the timing, and the
TAFs will only reflect IFR conditions for now. There will be a
low-end TSRA risk this evening (10-20%), but the risk is too low
for a mention at any TAF site.

In the wake of the above-mentioned warm front, southwesterly
winds will increase, eventually becoming gusty later this
morning and continuing into this afternoon. The KMHX Vad Wind
Profile shows WSW low-level jet winds of 40-45kt, which is
higher than all available guidance. Because of this, LLWS
guidance is likely under doing the potential, and I added in
LLWS for all TAF sites for a few hours this morning.

Outlook: Guidance differ on the evolution of this evening`s
cold front, with differences focused on whether or not low
pressure develops along the front. If a low develops, this could
prolong IFR/LIFR conditions into Saturday. Conversely, if a low
doesn`t develop, IFR/LIFR conditions would end sooner. Either
way, periods of RA will continue into at least Friday, but could
last into Saturday if a low develops.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs show SW winds 10-15 kt over the cooler nearshore
waters and 15 kt gusting around 25 kt over the outer waters
near the Gulf Stream, with seas 2-4 ft north of Oregon Inlet
and 4-6 ft south. Gradient will tighten again today ahead of
the cold front with another round of SCA conditions likely
across the Pamlico Sound and northern coastal waters. The
probability of Gales has increased quite a bit this morning with
several members of hi-res guidance advertising potential gusts
of up to 35-40 kt. Some members have a history of overdoing
mixing especially over coastal waters, but this does seem more
plausible over the Gulf Stream especially given a potent LLJ
expected to develop later today. Thus, opted to put up a Gale
Warning for the waters in Raleigh Bay. SCA remains in effect for
all other offshore waters.

Wave guidance has been under-performing observations during the
past few Gales, so manually adjusted forecasts upward a couple
feet to show up to 10 feet for the outer central waters. If
stronger winds closer to 40 kt are realized this could still be
conservative by a couple of feet.

Outlook: Poor boating conditions likely to persist for offshore
waters into Friday before the front crosses the region. The
front moves through Friday, with winds becoming NE 10-20 kt
late Fri into the weekend. Next period of SCA likely Mon and
Tuesday in increasing northeasterly flow.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this
     evening for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST
     this evening for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for AMZ152-158.
     Gale Warning from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this evening
     for AMZ154-156.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MS
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...MS