Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

407
FXUS62 KMHX 111051
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
651 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Heat Advisory has been issued for the southern half of ENC
for today.

All Small Craft Advisories have been cancelled early.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dangerous heat and humidity to continue again today,
especially across the southern half of ENC

2) Increased risk of scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms through Monday, some of which could be strong to
marginally severe, along with a risk of heavy rainfall and
scattered instances of flooding.

3) Brief reprieve from the dangerous heat early next week, then
hot and humid conditions return by the end of the week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A hot and slightly drier westerly flow is
expected once again today, with afternoon highs topping out in
the low to mid 90s. Like yesterday, the slightly drier downslope
flow should allow dewpoints to mix out to the upper 60s for
some inland coastal plain locations. This is expected to hold
heat indices down closer to 100- 103 degrees. Meanwhile, further
south (ie. south of HWY 70), dewpoints are not expected to mix
out quite as much, especially as the seabreeze moves inland
keeping dewpoints elevated. This should support a period of heat
indices topping out in the 103-107 degree range there. In light
of all of this, a Heat Advisory has been issued for the
counties where confidence is highest regarding heat indices
reaching 103-107.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A remnant MCV/shortwave is forecast to move
offshore of the Carolinas this morning, with a brief period of
shortwave ridging and subsidence in its wake. Like yesterday,
it`s expected that this will tend to limit convection during the
late-morning through mid-afternoon period. Later this afternoon
and into tonight, another in a line of MCVs is forecast to
translate east from the TN Valley into North Carolina. The
thinking is that this will lead to another round of scattered
bands of convection progressing east across central and eastern
NC, primarily with a risk of gusty/damaging winds of 50-70 mph.

In the wake of the late-day/evening convection, a frontal
boundary is forecast to settle into the area, with areas of low
pressure rippling east along it through Monday. Increasing
moisture and lift along the frontal zone is expected to support
multiple rounds of scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms. While the pattern appears kind of messy for
severe weather, the frontal zone probably helps to boost deep
layer shear some, and there may be at least a marginal/low-end
severe risk, especially on Sunday. Additionally, multiple rounds
of thunderstorms within a moist environment could lead to some
hydro issues. This may especially be the case on Sunday when
instability and lift will be maximized, favoring the heaviest
rainfall rates and amounts. In light of this, WPC has increased
the risk of flash flooding from marginal to slight for much of
ENC for Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...In the wake of the active convective period
through Monday, a not as hot northeasterly flow regime will
develop across the Carolinas early next week, favoring slightly
below climo temps. This will offer a brief reprieve from the
dangerous heat of late. The reprieve is expected to be short-
lived, however, as heat rebuilds late-week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The next 24 hours are expected to be very similar to the past
24 hours. SCT to BKN mid-level clouds early this morning are
forecast to give way to clearing skies by late-morning. It
appears that the TSRA risk today will tend to be delayed like
it was yesterday, with the risk holding off until after 20-21z.
The main difference tonight is that the TSRA risk may last
longer compared to yesterday evening. Sub-VFR CIGs and reduced
VIS can be expected with any TSRA. Additionally, the strongest
TSRA will be capable of 40-55kt downburst winds. In the wake of
the TSRA tonight, guidance suggests a period of sub-VFR
conditions may develop in either BR/FG or low stratus. There is
still some uncertainty regarding how the TSRA will evolve
tonight, so for now I`ve opted to keep conditions VFR.

Outlook (Sunday through Wednesday): An increased risk of TSRA
is expected to last into Monday, along with an increased risk of
sub-VFR conditions. This is due to a frontal zone and a
developing area of low pressure interacting with a moist and
unstable airmass over the area. Predominantly VFR conditions are
expected to return by Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
The thunderstorms from last night appear to have disrupted the
gradient across the ENC waters, which has allowed winds to lay
down slightly. Consequently, this has lowered the risk of 25kt
winds for the remainder of the early morning hours, and all
Small Craft Advisories have been cancelled early. Later this
afternoon into this evening, another marginal risk of 25kt wind
gusts appears plausible south of Cape Hatteras and across the
Pamlico Sound. However, once again thunderstorms moving through
may disrupt the gradient, shortening the potential window of
Small Craft Advisory conditions. In light of this, no marine
headlines are planned for today or tonight.

Outlook (Sunday through Wednesday): On Sunday, an area of low
pressure is forecast to move east along a stalling frontal zone.
The low is then forecast to linger of the area through Monday,
then shift east by Tuesday. A period of 25kt winds and/or 6ft
seas may develop around this low Sunday or Monday, and marine
headlines may eventually be needed for a portion of the waters,
especially on Monday. Boating conditions are forecast to improve
by Tuesday or Wednesday as winds and seas lay down.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for NCZ090>092-094-193>196-198-199-204-205.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ195-196-
     199-204-205.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RM
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...RM