Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

574
FXUS62 KMHX 281525
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1025 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Have extended the marine dense fog advisory for the Pamlico
Sound and coastal waters south of Ocracoke Inlet. Advisory for
Neuse and Bay Rivers will be allowed to expire as scheduled
previously (1100est).

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Overcast skies with light rain offshore before a weak low
pushing out to sea can pull moisture away from the area leading
to clearing conditions with warming temps for remainder of
weekend.

2) A fast moving shortwave traversing the eastern CONUS early
next week bringing chances of brief light rainfall.

3) Warming temperatures and daily rain chances mid-late week as
high pressure sets in to our southeast

Aviation...Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions expected to last into
late this morning. IFR/LIFR conditions in BR/FG may redevelop
tonight.

Marine...Marginal SCA conditions possible over far outer
coastal waters Cape to Cape today. Next period of likely
widespread SCA conditions SUN night into TUE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...The shortwave aloft begins to push offshore this
morning which will aid in the further organization of a weak
low to develop and ride the Gulf Stream slowly NEward through
the day. This low will act to pull clouds and moisture offshore
away from the the area through today and tonight as PWATs drop
from near 1" to around 0.5". The introduction of drier air will
help keep Sunday PM`s cold front passage dry. While some
returns on radar are possible, it would likely be in the form of
virga. Winds briefly become SWerly ahead of Sunday`s front,
allowing MaxTs Sunday to get into the low 70s with sunny skies
and light winds.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The next potential system will come through the
area early next week as a quick moving shortwave zips across
the central plains and mid- Atlantic along a meandering boundary.
Precipitation amounts and coverage looks to be low given the
muted nature of the shortwave paired with the more northward
focus of precip. Some models are showing some mixed precip
possible along the NC/VA border with this shortwave, but we
should be too warm at the lowest levels for this to occur in our
forecast area.

KEY MESSAGE 3...High pressure sits offshore late week allowing
for warm south flow to build into the region. Temps could warm
up to the 80s inland Friday and Saturday, supported by
850-1000mb thicknesses at 1380-1390m. With the contrast of
colder nearshore SSTs and warm land, the sea breeze should
develop Friday and Saturday. While there is no upper level
support, PWATs around 1" and instability building up to 500-1000
J/kg could allow for clouds and some isolated showers to form
along the sea breeze.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Update...Skies have cleared inland quicker than previously
forecast bringing VFR back through the remainder of the TAF
period.

Previous Disco...Widespread low CIGs continue to impact ENC
with predominantly LIFR conditions. However, over the past
couple of hours, satellite imagery has shown some slow clearing
of the stratus from NE NC southwest through far northwestern
sections of ENC. It`s unclear how long this will last as low
clouds are beginning to fill back in from the east. This
primarily impacts KPGV in the near-term as that terminal will be
right on the edge of the clearing line. Confidence in the CIG
forecast is lowest there. Elsewhere, guidance suggests LIFR CIGs
will last for several more hours before dry air begins to win
out more decidedly, leading to rising CIGs. VFR conditions are
expected by this afternoon. Later this evening and into tonight,
good radiational cooling and residual moist low-levels should
allow reduced VIS to return in BR/FG. I`ve introduced sub-VFR
conditions after 06z tonight for most terminals to highlight
this potential. It should be noted that probabilistic guidance
suggests a 40-60% chance of IFR, or lower, VIS tonight.

Outlook: A cold front is forecast to move south through ENC on
Sunday with a notable northerly wind shift. A few SHRA or TSRA
may accompany this front, although not all guidance show this
potential. Behind the front, a weak weather system is forecast
to move through the area early next week, and this system should
provide the next chance for sub-VFR conditions across ENC.

&&

.MARINE...
Update...Based on observations from webcams, have extended the
marine dense fog advisory for the Pamlico Sound and coastal
waters south of Ocracoke Inlet into this afternoon (1300est).
This is more than likely longer than it needs to be, but with
all models handling the fog very poorly, would rather have to
cancel it early than have the VIS 1 NM or less be in place with
no headline. Advisory for Neuse and Bay Rivers will be allowed
to expire as scheduled previously (1100est) with cams here
showing improvement.

NEerly winds 10-15G15-20kt with rain lingering along coastal
waters and eastern Pamlico Sound this morning. Seas are also
relatively tame at 3-4 feet. Rain should be moving off later
this morning as the low pressure works NEward up the Gulf Stream
through the day pulling moisture away from the area. Some
patchy sea fog possible this morning as moist conditions and
lighter winds are sitting over cooler waters. This will
especially be the case for waterways near the Crystal Coast
(Bogue Sound, Core Sound, Newport River, and the Neuse River).
NEerly winds will be near 25 knots over FAR outer waters Cape
Hatteras to Cape Lookout through much of the day Saturday. Would
issue SCA if areal coverage coverage or duration were more
sustained, but the 25kt gusts are forecast to bounce in and out
of the 20nm zones through the day. With the near small craft
winds for outer waters, seas are also expected to rise to 4-6 ft
near the Gulf Stream, remaining 2-3 feet closer to the coast.
Seas lessen and Nerly winds weaken to be AoB 10kt Sunday before
becoming SWerly ahead of the next front crossing area waters
Sunday night into Monday morning.

The front moving through Sunday night into Monday morning is
expected to bring a quick shift in winds from SW to NE. While
the SW component should be light (around 10 knots), the NE
component behind the front will be much stronger, gusting
greater than 25 knots. EPS probs of gale force gusts from Cape
Hatteras to Cape Lookout are greater than 80%, although GEFS
shows a very different story with probs of 10%. With this
uncertainty, elected to keep gust magnitudes relatively
unchanged, getting up to the low 30 knots range. Confidence in
small craft conditions for coastal waters and Pamlico Sound late
Sunday through Monday is high, the question is if the inland
rivers get there, and if the gale force gust potential cape to
cape is realized. NWPS tends to struggle in these northerly flow
regimes like what we will see behind the front, so elected to
include WNA waves in the forecast for Sunday night and Monday to
bring waves up faster. Current forecast has 5-9 ft along
coastal waters Monday.

Outlook: High moves offshore late week, allowing for lighter southerly
flow to kick in, bringing daily rain chances and warmer temps.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ135-
     156-158.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for AMZ137.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RJ
AVIATION...RM/CEB
MARINE...CEB/RJ