Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

685
FXUS62 KMHX 272306
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
706 PM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Cancelled the Small Craft Advisories with improving seas this
afternoon. Issued new Small Craft Advisories starting Wednesday
Morning. Increased rain chances along coastal communities
Wednesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Breezy NE winds and high astronomical tides will bring the
potential for continued minor coastal flooding through at least
mid week.

2) Mostly dry with climo temps through early this week, then
warming to above climo mid to late week with continued dry
conditions. Next chance of rain late weekend to early next week.

Marine: Elevated seas may bring hazardous boating conditions
Wednesday morning through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Strong high pressure building into the Mid-Atlantic
and low pressure well off the FL coast will result in a period
of continued long period swell across the OBX. The high waves
combined with King Tides this week will lead to additional minor
coastal flooding impacts.

For Hatteras Island, seas offshore are in the 4-6 foot range
this evening, but the long period swells will continue to cause
issues for vulnerable areas. For ocean-side: high tide is
around 0900 PM EDT today. Soundside high tides lag by up to 3
hours behind the oceanside tides. The National Parks Service and
NCDOT have reported substantial beach erosion from south Nags
Head to Buxton, along with significant overwash occurring on
side streets in Rodanthe. Due to hazardous road conditions and
flooding, NC-12 remains closed from the Marc Basnight Bridge to
Rodanthe.

Minor coastal flooding of vulnerable locations will be likely
well into this week despite the diminishing of winds, with
"sunny day" flooding across much of the tidal regions of ENC
around times of high tide, then slowly improve as the King Tides
ease later in the week and into the weekend. Coastal flood
advisories continue through the high tide cycle on Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry high pres with near climo temps expected
today and tonight, then warming to above normal mid week through
the weekend. A coastal trough offshore could bring isolated
showers to coastal communities tomorrow into tomorrow night.
PoPs have been increased to ~20% to account for this. Thunder
chances remain below 5% along the coast tomorrow. Late week
into the weekend, hts/thicknesses build further, and temps
climbing back to 5-10 degrees above climo with highs around 80F
inland to low 70s OBX. Low temps will warm above climo as well
with readings in the mid 50s for most locales away from the
immediate coast. Next chance of rain is Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecast confidence is moderate over the next 24 hours.

A moistening northeast to east low-level flow atop a cool
boundary layer is expected through tonight which is a favorable
setup for low stratus and FG development. Guidance is mixed on
whether stratus or FG will be the dominant source of sub-VFR
conditions. The previous TAFs leaned towards stratus, and since
there isn`t a strong model consensus one way or another, I opted
to keep the 00z TAFs unchanged on that point. It`s worth noting
that guidance appears to be too aggressive with stratus
development compared to what is on satellite right now. If this
trend holds, FG may end up the dominant cause of sub-VFR
conditions. The potential exists for a period of LIFR/IFR
conditions (via FG or low stratus). VIS and CIGs are expected to
improve to VFR by 13-16z on Wednesday, but 3-4k ft stratus may
linger for much of the day. Additionally, the increased moisture
and a sharpening coastal trough may lead to some SHRA
development right along the coast, potentially impacting KEWN
and KMRH during the day Wednesday.

Outlook (Wed through Sat): Outside of Wednesday, expect VFR
conditions to continue through at least Sat with quasi-
stationary high pres over the region. Coastal sections could see
ocnl MVFR STCU at times with flow cont off the Atlantic.

&&

.MARINE...
High pres ridging into the waters bringing N/NE winds 10-15 kts,
and elevated seas are only slowly subsiding due to the long
period nature of the swells. With a ~18 hours period of seas
below 6 ft, elected to drop the previous SCA, and issue a new
SCA starting at 12Z Wednesday, continuing through Thursday.

Outlook (Wed through Sat):Early Wed morning renewed nerly pres
gradient redevelops with SCA seas and/or winds. The winds and
seas finally diminish by early Thu north of Ocracoke, and by Thu
evening for remaining southern coastal waters. High building in
late week brings pleasant boating conditions to the region.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ195-196-
     199-203>205.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196-
     203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday
     for AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TL/RJ
AVIATION...RM/TL
MARINE...TL/RJ