Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

691
FXUS62 KMHX 070032
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
832 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Start time of SCA for southern waters (S of Ocracoke) has been
delayed until 15Z Thursday.

Increased pops for Sunday into Monday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A cold front will move through Thursday, bringing gusty
winds with widespread showers (80-90%), along with a slight
chance (20%) of embedded, non-severe storms.

2) High pressure will build in Friday and bring a brief round
of dry conditions.

3) Another round of unsettled weather for this weekend into
early next week as several low pressure systems and fronts move
through the region bringing scattered to numerous (40-70%)
coverage of showers, along with slight chance to chance
(20-30%) of thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A positively tilted upper-level trough will
move across the Midwest and Great Lakes region Thu. At the
surface, a slow moving cold front will move into ENC, pushing S
of the FA by Thu evening. Timing differences still in place
across avail HiRes guidance due to development of weak lows
and convective activity along and ahead of the front. Depending
on the depth of these waves, FROPA could start as early as THU
morning in the Nern FA, or delayed until the afternoon. These
timing differences could have significant impacts on T/Td, Max
temps, and available instability for storm development.

What is certain however, is that plentiful moisture along with
mid to upper level lift is in place for widespread beneficial
showers. There is a low, but non- zero, chance for some stronger
storms to develop, but lapse rates are quite weak due to the
widespread morning clouds and showers, and thus instability is
in the form of long skinny CAPE`s, which would yield some gusty
winds even if no lightning is present. Have lowered thunder
threat to slight chc (20%) across the FA as a result. Current
QPF for 6Z THU-6Z FRI still ranges from 0.25-1" with highest
totals over NWern half of the FA. In addition to showers and
storms, Thursday will bring gusty SW winds with gusts to 20-25
mph inland and 25-35 mph along the coast. Convective showers and
storms with greater vertical development, if some sunshine is
realized, may mix down some of the stronger winds aloft, making
strong convective wind gusts the greatest threat for the area.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Surface high pressure will briefly build in on
Friday leading to a mild, mostly dry day with MaxTs in the low
70s (60s OBX). The high shifts offshore FRI night ahead of a
shortwave to move through the Carolinas Saturday. This will lead
to warmer, cloudier conditions to start the weekend with
moisture advection ramping up in the Serly flow developing on
the W side of the high.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Rain chances increased again steadily on the
weekend, with the first wave on Sat with sheared mid level
energy swinging through as weak warm front lifts north
northeastward, producing chances for showers, then a better
chance later SUN into MON with likely pop`s ahead of another
front and stronger wave of low pressure that is forecast to
cross the FA. We will monitor this system for a strong to
severe storm threat, as better dynamics are in place, with
potentially more robust instability, which will depend on
diurnal timing of mesoscale features.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front will approach the area with clouds continuing to
increase and lower through the overnight. Showers will spread
across rtes between 06-10z with cigs progged to lower to MVFR
between 09-12z. Could see periods of IFR through the morning,
especially in heavier rainfall or isolated thunderstorms. A
cold front will push south across the area through the afternoon
with highest probs for IFR cigs coming behind the front and
continuing into the evening hours. South to southwest winds
around 5-15 kt with gusts to around 20-25 kt at times through
Thursday morning, then winds become Nly behind the front.

Outlook: Drier air moving in behind the front should support
improving aviation conditions overnight Thursday night and
Friday. Looking ahead, the next opportunity for sub VFR
conditions looks to be over the weekend. There will be a risk of
TSRA over the weekend as well.

&&

.MARINE...
SSW winds have inc due to inc diurnal thermal gradient, with
speeds of generally 10-20 kt, with some gusts to 25 kt over the
warmer Gulf waters. Choppy seas cont in the 2-4 ft@5-6sec range.
Moderate to gusty SSW winds will continue as a slow moving cold
front approaches and finally crosses from N to S during the day
THU. Timing of the front will be slow, with the ctrl and srn
waters esp south of Hatteras remaining in gusty swrly flow most
of the day Thu, and thus the SCA will be in effect here,
starting south of Ocracoke at 15Z Thu. Gusts of up to around 30
kt will be common, building seas to 5-7ft coastal waters, 7-9ft
offshore waters. Showers and storms likely ahead of the front
THU afternoon into early evening. Winds turn sharply N to NNE
behind fropa on Thu, with a thump of winds to 25 kt or higher
for a brief period on most sounds and nrn waters, but too brief
to warrant issuance of any SCA`s attm.

Outlook (Friday through Monday):
Winds will decrease to 5-15 kt with gusts to 15-20 kt by Friday
morning with good boating conditions returning by the afternoon
as high pressure builds in. The improvement will be short lived
with showers and storms expected again SAT, then again later Sun
into Mon with troughing traveling over regional waters behind
the high pressure sliding further offshore. SCA conditions on
the nearshore waters poss late Sun into early Mon ahead of
strong front, with brief gale gusts poss on the offshore waters.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Thursday to 2 AM EDT Friday
     for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TL/CEB
AVIATION...SK
MARINE...TL/CEB