Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

321
FXUS62 KMHX 171043
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
643 AM EDT Sun May 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes with this forecast update. Uncertainty
continues for frontal system late-week.

Updated Aviation Discussion for 17/12Z TAFs

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warming and mostly dry conditions will continue through mid
next week. There is a low end potential for record high temps.

2) The next frontal system approaches the area late week before
stalling.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...High pressure offshore continues ushering in a
warm, moist sfc airmass, with stubborn ridging above 850mb
keeping upper levels drier. As a result, a warm and dry pattern
is forecast into mid next week. MaxTs today will climb into the
low 90s inland, low 80s for beaches. Temps will remain warm
into mid next week, with highs in the low to mid 90s inland and
80s for the beaches. While we will likely remain below record
high temps this weekend and into early next week, we will be
close. These temps are forecast to bring Minor to Moderate Heat
Risks.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The next frontal system approaches the area
late next week, with 00Z guidance suggesting it stalls across
the mid-atlantic with the ridge winning out. Rainfall probs will
be maximized where the front ends up stalling, ranging anywhere
from VA to SC. Some higher uncertainty exists for PoPs in the
second half of a week given the reliance on the location of the
stalled boundary. Severe threat looks meager at best with poor
dynamics aloft thanks to the ridging. High sits over the
Northeast US behind the front through Friday, and once it
finally moves offshore the front will lift north and depart the
mid-atlantic region. Temp forecast also is dependent on the
stalled boundary. If it sits near VA we may see temps warmer
than fcst, and if it sits over the Carolinas we may see temps
cooler than fcst (whether it be due to rain/cloud cover along
the front or NE flow behind it).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR SKC through today with just some sct cirrus. Winds light
out of the SW early this morning. Today, winds light out of the
SW ahead of the seabreeze, becoming S and increasing to 10-15
kt behind the seabreeze. Thermal gradient this afternoon and
evening will bring southerly gusts of 20-25 knots in the
vicinity of NOBX. Winds become light to calm tonight night, with
fog and/or low stratus possible early morning Monday.

Outlook (Monday through Thursday): Continued moisture return in
persistent southerly flow may lead to TEMPO periods of low
CIGs/stratus each night into midweek between the late evening
hours into the early morning hours. Otherwise, a daily seabreeze
is expected with occasionally gusty winds. With dry high pres
in place, no convection is expected with chances below 10%. The
next chance of showers or a few storms is Thursday with a front
settling into ENC.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs show light winds generally 10-15 kt with some higher
gusts around 20 kt near warmer Gulf Stream waters. Seas are at
3-4 feet, on their way down from yesterday`s thermal gradient.
Similar pattern expected today, with S/SW winds at 10-20 knots,
with a couple hours of 25 knot gusts possible near NOBX/Pamlico
Sound with the thermal gradient in the afternoon and evening
hours.

Outlook (Monday through Thursday): Typical summertime pattern
will rinse and repeat the winds forecast with mostly dry and
warming forecast into mid week. Mostly S-SW winds through the
period with high pressure offshore. Light to moderate SSW winds
in the mornings, increasing to 10-20 kt in the afternoon and
evening with stronger thermal gradient and sea/sound breezes.
Croatan, Roanoke, and Albemarle Sounds most likely to see 25kt
gusts in the afternoon and evening, no SCA currently planned for
these sounds despite criteria likely being met briefly. Seas
generally remaining 2-4 ft, with 5 footers possible early in the
night due to the thermal gradient.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RJ
AVIATION...RJ
MARINE...RJ