Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

339
FXUS62 KMHX 150536
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1236 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Well above normal conditions expected by the end of next week.

Gale Warnings issued for portions of the marine area.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A low pressure system will bring widespread rainfall of 1-2
inches (highest along the coast) tomorrow and tomorrow night.
Mild temps and gusty winds along the coast will accompany this
system.

2) Well above normal to near record high temperatures are
expected mid to late next week.

AVIATION...Widespread IFR, or lower, conditions expected this
afternoon into Monday morning, along with a risk of LLWS
impacts.

MARINE...Strong Small Craft and Gale conditions will develop by
late tomorrow afternoon as a deepening low pressure system
moves through ENC tomorrow night. Gale Force winds continue
behind the low through Monday morning across most of the coastal
waters and Pamlico Sound

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...An area of low pressure will track eastward
tonight out of the Deep South, eventually moving over the
Carolinas tomorrow, and off the Outer Banks tomorrow night.
Showers will being to move into ENC tomorrow morning, with
steadier rain developing in the afternoon. The heaviest rain
will be tomorrow night as the low tracks over ENC and then
offshore. Overall, 1-2 inches of rain is expected with warm
temps and relatively high PWATs. Higher rainfall totals are
possible along the coast and OBX, where convective elements will
come into play as the low begins to deepen as it reaches the NC
coast. Speaking of convection, most of the surface instability
will remain offshore, but there remains a chance for some
elevated thunderstorms along the coast, and especially
Hatteras/Ocracoke Islands.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A ridge of high pressure will set up over the
SW Atlantic for most of next week as the storm track shifts
northward. After near normal conditions Monday, heights will
steadily rise through the week with above normal conditions
expected, and by late next week near record temperatures will be
possible. Highs will be in the 60s Tuesday, low 70s Wednesday,
and mid to upper 70s Thursday and Friday. Along the coast it
will be a different story due to the frigid water temperatures,
which will keep temperatures mostly in the 60s next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through early afternoon, with
widespread sub-VFR developing late afternoon and continuing into
Monday as rain overspreads the area. Moisture advection within
ongoing southerly low- level flow will lead to cigs gradually
lowering overnight and through the day. During the afternoon
hours, CIGs are expected to lower from MVFR to IFR from west to
east. Light to moderate RA will accompany the lowering CIGs,
which is expected to lead to reductions to VIS at times. LLWS
impacts are expected to last through much of tonight, followed
by a risk of impacts from gusty winds on Monday. A low- end TSRA
risk will be present into tonight as well, but mainly along the
coast from KMRH to KHSE (10-20% chance).

Outlook: Widespread sub-VFR conditions Monday morning, gradually
improving through the day, likely returning to VFR by late
afternoon. Monday night/Tuesday morning, high pressure overhead
brings calm winds. If clouds clear in time, the calm winds,
clearing skies, and recent rainfall will bring fog concerns to
eastern NC early Tuesday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Good boating conditions will continue through tomorrow morning.
Thereafter, conditions will deteriorate tomorrow with Gale
conditions developing across the warmer Gulf Stream waters
tomorrow evening, and expanding to most of the rest of coastal
waters and Pamlico Sound overnight.

Low pressure is expected to move through the ENC marine waters
which will make for a complicated forecast tomorrow through
Monday morning. Southerly winds will strengthen through the day
ahead of this system, reaching Gale Force along the coastal
waters between Capes Lookout and Hatteras where warmer Gulf
Stream waters are. Here winds will be S to SW 25-35 kts with
gusts to 40 kts from early tomorrow evening until the low moves
offshore after midnight. S/SW winds will reach Small Craft
levels across the rest of coastal waters and Pamlico Sound.
After the low passes off the NC coast, winds will sharply
increase out of the N everywhere early Monday morning, and
should reach Gale Force across the coastal waters north of Cape
Lookout, as well as over the Pamlico Sound. Exactly how strong
winds become will depend on the strength of the low, which will
be deepening as it moves offshore. Right now the most likely
wind strength is 25-35 kts with gusts to 40 kts. Strong Small
Craft conditions will develop across the remaining marine areas
through Monday afternoon.

Outlook: Small craft seas (> 6ft) will persist through at least
Tuesday due to backswell from the low pressure system which
will deepen rapidly offshore. Thereafter, increasing SW winds,
and perhaps some lingering backswell will lead to Small Craft
conditions continuing across most of the coastal waters into
late next week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 6 PM EST Monday for AMZ131-
     230-231.
     Gale Warning from 3 AM to 3 PM EST Monday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 4 PM EST Monday for AMZ136-
     137.
     Gale Warning from 3 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for AMZ150-152.
     Gale Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Monday for
     AMZ154-156.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 3 AM EST
     Tuesday for AMZ158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SGK
AVIATION...CQD
MARINE...SGK