Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

644
FXUS62 KMHX 071932
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
332 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated fcst to reflect model trends for today and Wednesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Another warm and muggy day is on tap across ENC today.

2) A more active pattern persists into midweek, with showers
and storms expected each day, some of which could bring gusty
winds and heavy rain.

3) Another round of dangerously high heat and humidity builds
mid to late week into the weekend.

4) A very unstable atmosphere develops in tandem with the high
heat and humidity mid to late in the week, and could produce a
few strong to severe thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Temps across inland areas get into the mid 90s
while temps along the OBX get into the upper 80s this afternoon.
At the same time, expect dewpoints to remain around 75 with the
highest dewpoints noted directly behind the seabreeze today.
This is forecast to result in heat indices around 100-105F today
across much of ENC. While the seabreeze will likely kick off
convection once again today, much like yesterday think there is
some time for heat indices to reach heat advisory criteria prior
to thunderstorm initiation. Kept the Heat Advisory as is with
obs supporting the heat indices around 105 for SW counties.
Even if we dont reach explicit criteria in counties out of the
Heat Advisory it will be hot and muggy today so make sure you
are taking proper precautions if headed outside for an extended
time period today.


KEY MESSAGE 2...At first glance today had a rather similar
setup across ENC compared to yesterday as weak upper ridging
extends N towards ENC keeping the area under a hot airmass. With
that in mind, initial thought was substantial coverage of
showers and storms along and ahead of the sea breeze this
afternoon. However, this has not materialized to this point.
Current thinking is slightly drier conditions above 500mb noted
on the 12Z sounding today compared to yesterday, paired with
less instability (2-3k instead of 4-6k) might be the reason for
the lesser coverage. Still, scattered showers and tstorms are
expected ahead of the sea breeze as updrafts slowly saturate the
air above 500, eating way at the "cap" aloft. Of note, near
Alligator River and NOBX there is enough convergence to overcome
the drier air aloft, and this region is still expected to see
numerous to widespread tstorms. Weak shear keeps storms more
"pulse-like" with weak steering flow making the storms slow
moving and back building. With all this in mind, storms will be
capable of heavy rain, frequent lightning, gusty winds, and
small hail. Where heavy rain rates linger, flash flooding will
be a concern today.

Tomorrow a backdoor cold front/seabreeze combo will be the
focus for thunderstorm activity. Guidance continues to suggest
PoPs remain around the 50-80% range as the back door cold front
provides some additional forcing. Instability however should be
less as more cloudy skies get in the way. SPC has portions of
ENC under a marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe weather as well
on Wed with damaging winds (40-60 mph) being the main hazard
within the strongest storms. WPC has kept much of the area
under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall tomorrow as well.

Beyond mid week, PoPs return back to climo (20-40%) as more
typical seabreeze showers/storms return. Hts/thicknesses slowly
build in the process as ridging begins to build once again, with
heat indices 100-110 in the forecast.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Not much change in forecast thinking from Thurs
onwards as low level thicknesses remain around normal values
which places inland temps in the mid to upper 90s across ENC.
With dewpoints in the 70s there could be widespread heat
indices around 100-110 each afternoon from Thurs into Sat.
Probabilistic heat risk shows a 60% + chance for reaching major
heat risk values with the greatest risk coming on Thurs/Fri so
additional heat advisories may come into play later this week.

KEY MESSAGE 4...With the aforementioned high heat and humidity
expected Thurs into this weekend, a very unstable atmosphere
develops with the potential for ML CAPES to near 3500 J/KG each
day, and SFC based instability between 4000-5000 J/KG. As is
typical this time of year, deep layer shear will not be too
strong, but any storms that can develop with some upper level
support could produce strong downdraft/microburst winds and very
heavy rain characterized by PW`s exceeding 2". Will also be
monitoring Sunday as the next potential front makes an
appearance across ENC which could help to focus thunderstorm
activity and bring more shear to the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions across all of ENC thunderstorms increase in
coverage this afternoon and evening. Have maintained the TEMPO
groups to mention this threat with general timing at all TAF
sites after 18Z today. Any TSRA that develop today will be
capable of 30-45kt winds and significant reductions to VIS.
Showers and thunderstorms once again wane tonight with another
round of low stratus and patchy fog possible. A backdoor cold
front will track across the region on Wed bringing yet another
chance for showers and thunderstorms and potential for sub-VFR
conditions both with thunderstorms Wed PM and with low stratus
moving in Wed AM.


Outlook (Wed through Sat): Beyond Wed, more typical iso to
widely sct activity expected as ridging rebuilds into ENC so a
much lower threat for sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
10-20 kt SW winds today with 2-5 ft seas keeping things just
below SCA levels for the most part. There will be the potential
for another round of SCA conditions across the coastal waters
and Pamlico Sound tonight, though this looks less likely than
this mornings SCA`s so still don`t have SCA`s out for it.
Regardless do expect winds to ease close to daybreak Wed once
again. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will also be possible
across our waters today and Wednesday as a shortwave moves
through bringing a threat for locally enhanced winds and seas.

Outlook (Wed through Sat): Weakening front moves into the
waters on Wed, though as is typical in July, the front appears
to wash out, with any N`rly flow behind it short lived with
return flow developing Wed evening. SW`rly winds look to
strengthen some on Thurs/Fri as a thermal trough strengthens
across the area bringing our next potential threat for SCA`s to
the waters.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ079-090>092-
     094-193>196-198-199.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RCF/RJ
AVIATION...RCF/RJ
MARINE...RCF/RJ