Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

271
FXUS62 KMHX 100714
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
314 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Have issued a heat advisory for much of the CWA today.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dangerous heat and humidity persists across ENC into this
weekend.

2) There is a chance for some strong thunderstorms this weekend
as instability builds across ENC.

3) Increasing chances for hot and humid conditions to return
next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Another warm night across ENC with temps
generally in the 70s and 80s this morning. A few isolated
showers have been noted along the Hwy 264 corridor overnight
associated with a weak mid level shortwave, but this activity
is quickly pushing offshore so generally expect partly cloudy
and dry conditions across ENC through daybreak.

Going to sound like a broken record, but once again it will be
hot and humid today, and once again we have issued heat
advisories across much of ENC starting at 11AM and going to 8PM.
Similar setup today compared to yesterday with ridging around
the area and SW`rly flow persisting keeping low level
thicknesses generally at the same range as yesterday. This will
lead to highs in the mid to upper 90s inland and into the low
90s along the OBX. Dewpoints once again get into the 60s to 70s
today resulting in widespread heat indices between 100-110F.
Will note with deeper mixing today, we may stay just below our
typical criteria for areas in the heat advisory. However, all of
ENC remains under the major heat risk category yet again and
given the last several days of hot and humid conditions, and the
lack of cooler nighttime temps this will compound the threat
and the impacts will remain the same. Have issued the heat
advisory for areas that saw criteria yesterday plus Lenoir
County. Deeper mixing across our NW`rn counties (Greene, Pitt,
and Martin) should keep heat indices low enough to preclude
expansion of the heat advisory.

Low level thicknesses decrease several meters on Sat with temps
a few degrees lower while dewpoints begin to creep back up
resulting in another day with heat index values around 100-105
with the heat risk in the moderate to major range so could see
one final day with heat advisories across ENC before we finally
"cool" off. Realistically, this just means an end to heat
indices around 105F finally.

KEY MESSAGE 2... We start to see the return of a more active
pattern starting today as a shortwave tracks across ENC this
evening with a stronger upper level trough/mid level shortwave
and surface front approaching from the north and west Sat/Sun.
This will act to progressively increase shower and thunderstorm
chances each day with precip chances maximizing Sat evening
through Sun morning. For today could see a few isolated showers
and storms develop along the seabreeze and coming in from the
west as the first shortwave moves across the region. With
MLCAPES generally around 1000-2000 J/kg this afternoon but no
shear across ENC, there is a low end threat for gusty winds
(40-50 mph) in the strongest storms this afternoon and evening.

Prefrontal trough then sets up Sat afternoon with the
aforementioned front approaching our northern zones Sat evening
and pushing through the area Sun. Instability generally ranges
from 1000-2000 J/kg of ML CAPE Sat and 750-1500 J/kg of ML CAPE
Sun, and deep layer shear increases slightly to 25-30 kts.
Combined with greater upper level support, thunderstorms could
become more organized Sat afternoon and again on Sunday
bringing a damaging wind threat (40-60 mph gusts) to much of ENC
on Sat. SPC has also outlined ENC under a marginal risk (level
1 of 5) for severe weather on Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 3... While we likely cool down at the beginning of
next week under NE`rly flow, hot and humid conditions return to
the area bringing yet another threat for an extended period of
hot and humid conditions. NWS probabilistic heat risk guidance
suggests much of the area has a 50% + chance at seeing major
heat risk levels starting around Thurs/Fri next week and CPC has
put ENC under a moderate risk for hazardous temperatures during
this timeframe as well. Either way, make sure to pay attention
to trends in the forecast to see if this threat persists or
chances lower as we get closer to next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are noted across ENC as of this update. Have seen
some mid level cloud cover associated with isolated shower
activity noted along the Hwy 264 corridor this morning. Expect
this iso activity to push offshore by daybreak. As we get
further into today expect VFR conditions to continue to persist
across the region for the most part. However, a couple of upper
level waves plus gradually increasing moisture may support a
slightly higher chance of SHRA and TSRA, especially during the
late afternoon and evening hours. Confidence in this activity is
moderate, as there still appears to be some limiting factors
for TSRA development. In light of this, we`ll continue to hold
off on any TSRA mention in the TAFs for Friday but mentions
could be introduced in later TAF cycles.

Winds have eased up since last evening and will remain light but
steady this morning before increasing once again this afternoon
as the thermal gradient develops. Expect SW winds to gusts to
around 20 kts this afternoon and evening before easing after
sunset.

Outlook (Saturday through Tuesday): As we get into the weekend, an
upper level trough and associated surface front approaches
increasing chances for showers and storms as well as sub-VFR
conditions to ENC. Could see improving conditions on Monday with
mainly VFR conditions forecast Mon and Tue under clearing skies
and light NE winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Widespread 10-20 kt southwesterly winds are noted across our
waters this morning. Have seen frequent gusts up around 25-30 kt
as well along our coastal waters and Pamlico Sound with 5-7 ft
seas noted along the coastal waters. This coincides with the
ongoing Small Craft Advisories this morning. Lighter winds are
noted across the other inland waters. Do expect winds to
gradually ease this morning with SW`rly winds falling to 5-15
kts with gusts up to 20 kts across all waters. This will end
the SCA`s across the N`rn coastal waters and Pamlico Sound over
the next few hours. However, across the coastal waters south of
Oregon Inlet this reduction in winds will be brief with winds
once again increasing to 15-20 kts with gusts up to 25-30 kts
this afternoon and evening so the SCA will remain across these
waters into Sat morning.

Outlook (Saturday through Tuesday): Once again not much change
in the forecast as conditions gradually improve Saturday, then
will see a backdoor cold front drop through the waters late
Saturday night and Sunday with winds becoming NE around 10-20 kt
with seas building to 3-5 ft. A weak area of low pressure may
form along the stalled front to the south Monday keeping E-NEly
flow across the waters through early next week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for NCZ045>047-080-081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-
     203>205.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ195-196-199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
     AMZ135-150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RCF
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...RCF