Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

840
FXUS62 KMHX 102350
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
750 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Sea fog threat decreased quite a bit on the Sounds.

Winds were increased on Wednesday and Thursday

Temperatures were increased on Wednesday

A Gale Watch has been issued for portions of the ENC coastal
waters.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Well above normal to near record temperatures expected
through Wednesday, followed by a strong cold front with
widespread rain and a few thunderstorms on Thursday

2) Temperatures rebound this weekend ahead of a strong cold
front early next week

Marine...Confidence increasing regarding marine impacts
Wednesday and Thursday associated with a strong cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A potent upper level shortwave will swing east
through the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic on Thursday, with an
associated cold front passage Thursday morning. Ahead of this
feature, strengthening southerly flow will develop associated
with a notable southwesterly LLJ. This will support
strengthening moisture transport, with PWATs climbing to
1-1.50", and dewpoints rising into the low-mid 60s.

Despite increasing moisture and instability, upper level
ridging building into the area should keep a fairly tight lid on
convective potential Wednesday and Wednesday night. Then, by
the time the front reaches the area on Thursday, the timing
looks less favorable for severe weather, primarily due to
limited heating and weak instability. It should be noted,
though, that this will be a high shear/low CAPE scenario that
can sometimes support some stronger wind gusts or a very brief,
weak tornado. While this risk appears low, machine learning
guidance and pattern recognition suggests the risk isn`t zero.
The most likely scenario is widespread showers with a few
embedded thunderstorms during the day Thursday.

Ahead of the front, breezy south winds and increasing low-level
thicknesses beneath the ridge will support well above normal
temperatures. The ECMWF`s EFI guidance continues to show a very
strong signal for above normal to record high temps. A few
inland locations could approach 90 degrees. Very warm conditions
continue into Wednesday night. In fact, lows Wednesday night
will likely be warmer than our normal highs for this time of
year.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Yet another strong cold front is forecast to
move through the U.S. East Coast late this weekend or early next
week. Similarly, strong southerly flow ahead of the front
should support increasing moisture with 1"+ PWATs and 60+
dewpoints. This should once again allow a narrow ribbon of
modest instability to develop in the warm sector. The timing of
the cold front looks more favorably timed for peak
heating/destabilization. Consequently, machine learning guidance
show a slightly stronger signal for severe thunderstorms during
this time. This is several days away, but something to monitor
as we approach the weekend and early next week.

Temperatures will quickly rebound with increasing southerly
flow ahead of the front this weekend. This looks to be followed
by a notable surge of cold air next week. In fact, the Climate
Prediction Center has highlighted a portion of our area for a
risk of below normal temperatures. This may lead to frost/freeze
potential which is notable because it comes after some greenup
is ongoing during this recent stretch of above normal temps.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Light SW winds and VFR conditions through the TAF pd. Fog setup
looks less significant than this morning, given lowered TD`s
this afternoon and temps expected to remain mainly above x-over
threshold. HREF only advertising a 20% chc of IFR for the
inland areas. Any patchy fog that does develop should burn off
by 14Z, leading to VFR conditions and breezy SW winds with a
gust factor introduced after 15Z.

Outlook (Thursday through Sunday)...Sub-VFR may return Thursday
with scattered to numerous showers, isolated storms and gusty
winds. Pred VFR to return Fri into the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Sea Fog: With the sounds now well into the 60s, the sea fog
threat here has diminished substantially. Crystal Coast water
temps have also warmed into the low 60s, so threat is marginal
for some patchy fog. Best chc for some dense sea fg is the
waters noth of C Hatteras, where sst`s still in the 40s.

Light south winds of 5-10kt are expected to continue into early
Wednesday morning, with seas of 2-3ft common. These low impact
conditions won`t last long, though, as winds and seas begin to
build on Wednesday in advance of an approaching cold front.
Ahead of the front, southerly winds of 10-20kt are expected,
with seas building to 3-5ft. Behind the front, strong cold air
advection and enhanced mixing is expected to support widespread
15-25kt winds, with frequent gusts of 30-35kt+. Of note, some
guidance suggests gusts of 40kt possible. Given the recent
warming of SSTs into the 60s, this seems very reasonable as this
will help enhance mixing (compared to earlier this year when
SSTs were much colder). In light of all of this, confidence
continues to steadily increase regarding the potential for gale-
force gusts, and a Gale Watch has been issued where confidence
is the highest. Expansions of the watch will be possible, with
additional marine headlines eventually needed. The cold front
will be accompanied by a risk of thunderstorms on Thursday, the
strongest of which may produce enhanced wind gusts and brief
waterspouts.

Outlook: Winds and seas will lay down Friday and Saturday, with
more benign marine impacts expected. Winds and seas will
rebuild Sunday into Monday associated with the next strong cold
front.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for 3/10 (Tuesday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        86/1974  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   74/2000  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      84/2000  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   86/1974  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         85/2009  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    84/1974  (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 3/11 (Wednesday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        86/2015  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   73/1982  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      83/2016  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   83/1974  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         84/2000,2015  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    86/2015  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for
     AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RM
AVIATION...TL
MARINE...RM/TL