Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

339
FXUS62 KMHX 241823
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
123 PM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Gale Warnings issued for the outer central and southern waters
for strong SW winds Wednesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry and cool with increasing clouds today and tonight.

2) Front approaches the region late Thursday into Friday with
warming temps and rain likely, although rainfall amounts remain
uncertain.

Marine...Elevated seas continue north of Ocracoke. Gusty SW
winds and elevated seas develop Wed ahead of approaching front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...NWly mid-level flow will gradually become more
zonal tonight into Wed as weaker but quick-moving shortwave
transits the Great Lakes. At the surface, cooler high pressure
centered over the lower MS River Valley will continue to build
eastward tonight. Increasing clouds this afternoon and tonight
as high pressure builds eastward and weak shortwave pivots
through the Carolinas. Cool overnight, lows mainly in the 30s,
with some locations likely seeing a non-diurnal temp curve,
rising toward sunrise.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The next rainmaker for our area arrives
Thursday into Friday as cold front approaches from the west,
driven by a shortwave diving out of the northern Rockies.
Precipitation will be all liquid with temps well into the 60s,
with some limited thunder potential confined to near the Gulf
Stream. There is still a healthy amount of spread on forecast
rain amounts with the Euro ensemble sitting on the wetter side
of the envelope and the Canadian ensembles making up the dry
side. The forecast trend overall has been shifting towards
modestly higher amounts, with the odds of at least a quarter
inch now up to 70-80% and half an inch at around 50%. Still
think these might be a bit generous given the consistent under-
performance of precipitation as of late with ongoing drought
conditions, but at least measurable rainfall is likely and
maintained categorical PoPs.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR Conditions in place at all TAF sites this morning and are
expected to remain that way through the TAF period. Winds mainly out
of the northwest gusting up to 15 kts or so across the area will
back to southwesterly later this afternoon at 5-10 kts and dropping
overnight before ramping up again on Wednesday after sunrise. There
is some concern at PGV and ISO for some low level wind shear
overnight. While some guidance keeps this west of the area, western
counties could see a couple hours of 35-40kt wind shear at the 2000
foot level. Winds will increase to 15 kts gusting to 20-25 kts by
Wednesday afternoon.

Outlook: Gusty southerly winds are expected again on Thursday ahead
of an approaching cold front. LLWS impacts will continue to be
possible during this time. A cold front will bring an increased risk
of SHRA and sub-VFR conditions Wednesday night through Friday.
Additionally, a northerly wind shift can be expected along the front
as it moves through on Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs show NW-W winds 5-15 kt with seas 5-8 ft north of
Ocracoke and 2-4 ft south. High pressure will continue to build
over the SE, gradually sliding offshore late Wed. Gusty winds
will develop late tonight and Wed, as gradient tightens between
low pressure moving through the Great Lakes the attendant cold
front and high pressure to the south. Issued Gale Warning Wed
for the outer central and southern waters with potential for
several hours of gusts to 35 kt...along with SCAs for the
northern waters and Pamlico Sound.

Outlook: Poor boating conditions likely to persist for offshore
waters into Friday before the front crosses the region. The
front moves through Thursday night and Friday, with winds
becoming NE 10-20 kt late Fri into the weekend.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM EST Wednesday for
     AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ152-
     154.
     Gale Warning from 9 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday for AMZ152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CQD/MS
AVIATION...RTE/RM
MARINE...CQD