Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

667
FXUS62 KMHX 130553
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
153 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes from the previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Above to well above normal temperatures will prevail through
the entire week with the potential for record breaking
temperatures Tuesday through Saturday.

2) Worsening drought and fire weather conditions anticipated
over much of the upcoming week, with the next meaningful chance
of rain not until Sunday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Persistent ridging aloft combined with a warm,
southwest flow pattern and warm to anomalously warm low-level
thicknesses is expected to support above to well above normal
temperatures for the entire week. Some locations may reach, or
exceed, record highs (please see the CLIMATE section below for
additional information). Based on the latest guidance, the
warmest days are expected to be Wednesday, Thursday, and
Saturday. On those days, highs are expected to top out in the
90s inland, and 70s to near 80 along the coast. For reference,
mid-April highs typically average out to be in the upper 60s
along the coast and mid 70s inland. Based on the latest
forecast, inland highs should solidly reach 10-20 degrees above
normal. Summertime warmth with spring humidity means it won`t
feel as hot as it could with summertime humidity. Even so, the
heat risk is forecast to reach moderate impact levels this week.
This means impacts will be most prevalent for those without
adequate cooling or hydration. A break in the warmth looks to be
on the horizon as a cold front is now forecast to move through
the area on Sunday, with cooler air arriving early next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Worsening drought conditions are likely through
the foreseeable future with no rain in the forecast through
Saturday. The forecast area remains in a Severe Drought (D2),
with some pockets of Extreme Drought (D3) emerging over the
northern NC coastal plain. Precipitation deficits over the last
60 days range from 3-6 inches, which will only increase in the
upcoming rain-free week. Growing vegetation and leaf out will
only increase the strain on ground water in the coming weeks.
While the forecast currently has conditions not meeting criteria
for fire danger statements, the very dry conditions will
continue to bring an elevated threat for wildfires. It is also
worth noting that breezy afternoon/evening winds will be paired
with relative humidities in the 30-40% range. Again, this is
above Fire Danger Statement criteria, but given the increased
sensitivities, it is worth a mention. The NCFS continues a
statewide burn ban until further notice. Late in the weekend,
guidance is showing a strong signal for a cold front passage
(likely on Sunday). This front carries a chance of scattered
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Summer-like pattern is setting up over eastern NC this morning
as strong high pressure shifts offshore and anchors itself over
the western Atlantic, ushering in persistent moist southwesterly
flow over area terminals. For now, VFR conditions hold with
cirri spilling over the western periphery of mid-level ridge.
Low stratus threat, advertised in the previous cycle, remains a
marginal threat although probability of occurrence is generally
under 20% and more favored along and west of I-95. Will leave
out of TAFs, but cannot completely rule out some isolated
development mainly for PGV and ISO. Winds will remain elevated
enough to preclude a fog risk.

VFR conditions during the day with a mix of cirrus and diurnally
driven cumulus in the afternoon. SW winds around 10 kt with
higher gusts gradually veer southerly late afternoon into
evening with the passing seabreeze.

Outlook: Pred VFR conditions expected through the period with a
more summertime pattern persisting through the week. Stronger
winds likely in the coming days with tightening thermal
gradient, most likely felt in the afternoons and evenings.

&&

.MARINE...
A regime more typical of summer is expected across area waters
this week. Within this flow, there will be a diurnal max in
winds each afternoon and evening thanks to a strengthening
thermal gradient. During this time, occasional gusts to 25kt
will be possible, especially for areas favored in southwest flow
regimes. There isn`t any one day, yet, that looks like a solid
candidate for marine headlines, but we`ll continue to assess
this potential.

Seas of 3-5 ft will be common through much of the upcoming week
for the ENC coastal waters.

Outlook: The southwest flow pattern is expected to last into
Saturday. On Sunday, a cold front is forecast to move through
with a wind shift and the potential for scattered thunderstorms.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for 4/14 (Tuesday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        89/1948   (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   80/1994   (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      93/1922   (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   80/1996   (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         99/1930   (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    88/1977   (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 4/15 (Wednesday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        94/1972   (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   84/1922   (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      96/1922   (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   80/1964   (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         92/1941   (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    93/2006   (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 4/16 (Thursday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        92/1972   (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   78/1994   (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      92/1972   (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   82/2006   (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         92/2006   (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    91/1972   (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 4/17 (Friday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        91/1976   (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   83/2012   (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      92/1972   (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   82/1976   (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         91/1972   (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    91/2006   (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RM/RJ
AVIATION...MS
MARINE...RM