Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

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FXUS62 KMHX 221759
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
159 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation disco updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Severe drought conditions and elevated fire concerns persist
through much of the work week.

2) Increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms this weekend
into early next week bringing beneficial rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Severe drought conditions continue to plague
the entire Southeast U.S., with rainfall amounts since March 1
running about 10-50% of normal. Locally here in ENC, this
equates to rainfall totals running about 2-5" below normal over
that same time period. Almost all of ENC remains in Severe
Drought (D2), with a small part of Martin County in Extreme
Drought (D3).

Given the ongoing drought, fire weather will continue to be a
concern until a more substantial rain event occurs. Today we
will reach low RH`s 20-30% inland with deep mixing in the
afternoon brings SW wind gusts of 20-30 mph. Thursday and
Friday also have low RH`s, but winds gusts are currently
forecast to be below 20 mph.

In light of the expected dry and breezy conditions on Wednesday,
and in collaboration with the NCFS, an Increased Fire Danger
statement has been issued for all of ENC for today.

A statewide burn bans remains in effect for all of North
Carolina, with additional fire restrictions at all four national
forests in NC. Please see statements from the Forest Service
for additional information.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A modest increase in moisture and instability
along a stalled frontal boundary draped NW to SE from the Mid-
Atlantic into eastern NC may be a focus for isolated showers and
thunderstorms on Friday closer to the NC/VA border. This is
then expected to be followed by a more substantial plume of
moisture within an increasingly active upper level pattern over
the weekend and into next week. During this time, model guidance
differs on the evolution of a SFC low that is forecast to track
east across the Carolinas. There appears to be 2 camps in model
guidance. The first is a weaker low that moves through
Sunday/Monday, leaving behind a stalled frontal boundary that
becomes a focus for additional precipitation Tuesday. The second
possible solution is for a stronger surface low to move through
Sunday/Monday. This would favor a stronger push south with the
cold front, which then favors drier, but cooler, weather towards
the middle of next week.

Regardless of the evolution of that low, increasing moisture,
lift, and instability should favor one, or more, rounds of
showers and thunderstorms, with the greatest chance focused
Saturday into Sunday. Additional rounds of showers and
thunderstorms will be possible Monday/Tuesday, but this will
depend on the strength of the low as outlined above. Within this
pattern, there may be enough shear and instability for at least
a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms, especially Saturday,
and this is something we`ll monitor in the coming days.

Looking ahead to Tuesday, should the weaker low solution
materialize over the weekend, a deep negatively tilted trough
as shown by the 00Z GFS could develop over the midwest and mid-
atlantic mid- wee as a "worst case scenario". This could be
paired with veering of low level winds, modest instability, and
deep layer shear in the Carolinas and deep south. Mid-week next
week will also be worth monitoring for any severe probabilities
if other model suites come to the same consensus. At this point
though, there is too much up in the air.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR flight cats forecast through the period. A mainly dry cold
front will approach but remain N of the FA today. The associated
prefrontal trough will cross through ENC this afternoon and
evening bringing SW winds with gusts ~20-25 kt. Skies will be
clear most of the day but will see increasing mid level clouds
late this afternoon and evening as front approaches and weak
troughing crosses, becoming SKC overnight. Low end probabilities
of some light showers associated with troughing crossing over
OBX terminals 23-04Z, with less than mentionable chances (less
than 15%) across TAF sites, highest PoP EWN at 13% ~01Z tonight.
VFR flight cats persist THU with light NWerly winds becoming
onshore behind the seabreeze late in the afternoon.


Outlook: Pred VFR conditions expected through Friday. A wetter
pattern develops over the weekend that could bring periods of
sub-VFR conditions but guidance is not in best agreement in the
details yet.

&&

.MARINE...
South winds 10-15 knots will quickly increase to 15-30 kt and
become SW`rly today into tonight in advance of a cold front
approaching from the north. Thursday high builds to our south
with a stalled boundary to our north, keeping west to southwest
winds gusting up to 10-20 knots in place much of the day.

For the coastal and outer waters, seas of 3-5ft this morning
will build to 4-7ft with the building winds later today. Seas
are then expected to fall back to 2-4ft by early Thursday,
becoming 2-3 ft late Thursday.

Scattered thunderstorms may accompany Wednesday`s cold front in
the evening, especially for the coastal waters between Oregon
Inlet and Ocracoke Inlet.

Outlook: An area of low pressure is forecast to move through
the ENC waters this weekend with elevated winds and seas and the
potential for thunderstorms. The greatest thunderstorm risk
appears to be on Saturday. Winds and seas early next week could
be higher than forecast if the above mentioned low ends up
deepening offshore as some guidance suggests.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RJ
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...RJ