Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

766
FXUS62 KMHX 070555
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1255 AM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Severe potential all but over across eastern NC this evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cooler, drier, and more seasonable behind the frontal
passage this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Seasonably dry and temperature airmass (perhaps
a couple degrees below normal) will be ushered in behind this
morning`s cold front as it pushes further offshore. In the near
term, low stratus will continue to plague eastern NC as moisture
remains pooled under the frontal inversion. Stronger surge of
dry air, combined with mixing after daybreak, should usher in
sunny skies. The high will become the dominant weather feature
for the weekend and much of next week. Cooler temperatures with
highs in the 60s prevail today and tomorrow before a slight
warm-up next week into the low 70s, although humidity will
remain low. We will have to watch for the risk of some frost
over the upcoming nights, particularly tonight and Mon night as
lows dip towards the upper 30s and skies remain clear and winds
light. Will defer to day shift to determine whether advisories
are needed.

Beyond mid-week most guidance depicts an increasingly unsettled
pattern as complex mid-level low deepens over the eastern CONUS.
There is at least some signal for a developing low off our coast
beyond Wednesday, although its evolution and timing remain
highly uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecast confidence is moderate over the next 6 hours and high
through 00z Sunday.

Main cold front is currently working its way across eastern NC
with waning band of precipitation primarily affecting areas east
of a line from OCW-EWN-NJM. Thunder threat will be confined
southeast of EWN, but overall severe threat appears to be done
with the main hazard being an isolated gust up to around 25-30
kt.

Beyond this threat, question remains on how long post-frontal
stratus will hang around before dry air scours it out. REFS
probabilities show rapidly declining CIGs through 06z, but LAMP
hangs on to at least MVFR until around sunrise. Normally would
give more credence towards the LAMP as this is more in line
with typical post-frontal patterns here, but upstream obs do
show a strong clearing trend. Therefore, leaned forecast towards
a faster erosion of sub-VFR cigs and improvement to VFR
overnight.

Only some cirri to contend with tomorrow as high pressure takes
control with NW winds up to 10 kt.

Outlook: An extended period of VFR conditions is expected much
drier airmass remains over the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Cold front is making its way across area waters this hour with
winds quickly turning northwesterly and increasing to 10-20 kt
at times. A few infrequent gusts to 25 kt are possible with a
secondary surge of NW winds later this morning, especially north
of Cape Hatteras, but this is not expected to be prominent
enough to warrant SCA headlines. Seas will persist at around 3-5
ft nearshore and 4-6 ft offshore.

Behind the front, high pressure will build in with weakening
winds and therefore slowly subsiding seas.

Outlook (Sunday through Wednesday): High builds in this weekend
into next week, keeping winds below 20 kts and skies rain-free.
Despite the decrease in winds, elevated seas may linger through
the weekend for 20-60nm zones at around 4-6 feet, and an
isolated 6 foot wave is possible just within 20nm primarily for
waters in Raleigh Bay.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MS/RJ
AVIATION...MS
MARINE...MS/RJ