Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

876
FXUS62 KMHX 010728
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
328 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Have replaced central water small crafts with additional small
crafts across all waters starting tonight.

Tuesday: Carrying a dry forecast for the area

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cold front approaches this afternoon and evening with
chances for showers and thunderstorms area wide.

2) Cool and trending drier as a coastal low looks to remain off
the coast Tue, Wed, and Thurs.

3) Heat returns this weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1... A warm start to the morning as mostly cloudy
skies, a few showers, and temps in the 60s are noted across
ENC. SW`rly flow at the surface will bring a warm and moist
airmass to ENC today with temps getting into the upper 70s to
low 80s. While at the same time moisture pools across ENC out
ahead of an approaching cold front.

Upper level shortwave currently noted across the Ohio River
Valley will dive SE`wards into the Carolinas today out ahead of
a sharper positively tilted trough noted in the Northeastern
CONUS. At the surface, cold front stretching from the Northeast
SW`wards into Tennessee this morning is forecast to track
SE`wards through the day tracking across ENC tonight. While
there are some differences in timing of this front with the HRRR
being the most progressive and the NAM being the least
progressive, general expectation is for this front to track
across ENC tonight quickly moving from north to south. While a
few showers will be possible this morning well out ahead of this
front with (20-40%) chance for showers, the main show will
likely be later this afternoon into tonight where widespread
50-75% chance for showers and thunderstorms will be possible.

Out ahead of this front, SW`rly flow will advect mid to upper
60s dewpoints to ENC. As daytime heating maximizes, instability
will build allowing for MLCAPE values between 500-1000 J/kg to
develop this afternoon especially south of Hwy 264. At the same
time deep layer shear values around 30-40 kts are forecast to
overspread the area. This will result in scattered shower and
tstm development across our northern zones first with this
activity then tracking S though the afternoon and evening before
pushing offshore tonight. Typically this would allow for some
tstm organization but there are a few caveats to the
tstm threat today. The first will be this mornings cloud cover
and iso shower activity which may limit instability across ENC,
which would then limit how strong storms get. The second is
weaker lapse rates across ENC until late tonight. With all this
in mind still can`t rule out a stronger storm or two primarily
after about 2PM until about 10PM with frequent lightning, gusty
winds (40-50 mph), and small hail being the primary threats if
a storms can take advantage of this marginal at best
environment. With the front moving through tonight lows are
forecast to be slightly cooler getting into the upper 50s to low
60s.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Previously mentioned positively tilted upper-
level trough will swing across the Mid Atlantic on Tuesday,
which will help keep a developing coastal low offshore. Guidance
continues to get into better agreement that the surface low
should remain well enough offshore 100-200+ miles to keep the
area mostly dry through midweek. So, while there are technically
showers in the forecast for Wed/Thurs, if trends continue, would
not be surprised if these chances lowered on future updates
given the setup. More notable than the precip will be the breezy
northeasterly gradient winds, which could gust to 20-25 mph
inland and 25-35 mph along the coast.

KEY MESSAGE 3...As we get into the end of the week, low offshore
is forecast to push out to sea with high pressure building
overhead Thurs and then becoming anchored off the coast this
weekend. This will bring steady SW`rly flow, increasing low
level thicknesses, and warming temps with highs forecast to get
back into the 90s inland and 80s along the coast and OBX
bringing a return to more summer like temps.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Didn`t make too many significant changes to the forecast on
this update as high clouds continue to stream in from the west
out ahead of an approaching cold front with low and mid level
clouds still out by the Triangle as of this update. Forecast
calls for VFR conditions across all of ENC into daybreak before
some iso showers and low clouds begin to overspread the area
with at least a brief period of MVFR ceilings now forecast
across all TAF sites starting around 12-15Z and persisting into
the early afternoon before lifting for the most part. Then as we
get into this afternoon and evening, a modest increase in the
potential for MVFR and potentially IFR vis/cigs. THis threat
will mainly be noted along and ahead of the approaching cold
front. Threat starts from the north and pushes south through
tonight. Guidance differs on the timing of when this front will
move through ENC, but when it does come through, there will be a
risk of SCT SHRA and TSRA with reduced VIS and gusty/erratic
winds. Behind the front there will be a northeasterly wind
shift. Of note, where TSRA occur, the forecast environment
appears supportive of a risk of 30-45kt downburst winds and
small hail (<0.5" in diameter).

Outlook: Tuesday looks to remain dry, but it will be quite
breezy throughout the day with NE gusts to 15-20 kt inland and
20-30 kt along the coast. Winds will remain out of the NE on
Wednesday but gradually ease with a slight chance of showers
(highest along the coast). Winds eventually shift to S`rly
direction by late Thursday and into Friday and remain light.
Predominantly VFR conditions are expected for the remainder of
the period.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure is currently noted offshore this morning with a
cold front noted to the north and west of our waters. Winds
remain around 5-15 kts out of the SW, while seas have generally
fallen to about 3-5 ft. As a result have ended the central
waters SCA`s that were out earlier in the evening.

5-15 kt SW`rly winds to continue for much of today out ahead of
an approaching cold front while seas remain at about 3-5 ft
though 4-7 ft seas will be found across the outer waters (20+ NM
out). This however will change later this afternoon and into
tonight as the aforementioned cold front approaches and quickly
tracks across the area. Increasing shower and thunderstorm
chances expected this afternoon and evening. A few of these
storms could be strong in nature bringing a threat for locally
elevated winds and seas to all waters. Then as the front tracks
from N to S tonight, winds will quickly shift to a NE direction
at 15-25 kts with gusts up around 30 kts while seas build to
6-10 ft north of Cape Lookout and 4-7 ft south of Cape Lookout.
This will once again bring SCA conditions to all our waters
starting tonight and persisting into Wed. There is a low end
chance at a few gusts up towards 35 kts across our coastal
waters south of Cape Hatteras on Tue but the threat was too low
to include a gale watch for now.

Outlook: Hazardous marine conditions will continue to persist
into midweek as a low develops off the coats and keeps the
pressure gradient pinched. This keep NEerly winds gusting to
25-30+ kt Tuesday evening into Wed especially across our
coastal/outer waters. Seas will also persist around 6-10 ft.
Winds should drop below SCA criteria by Wednesday evening but
elevated seas could persist into early Thursday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ131-
     230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Wednesday
     for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ136-
     137.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Tuesday to 5 PM EDT Wednesday
     for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Tuesday to 5 AM EDT Thursday
     for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Thursday
     for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RCF
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...RM/RCF