Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

904
FXUS62 KMHX 271149
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
649 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Have cancelled the Small Craft Advisory for the Pamlico Sound
and coastal waters north of Oregon Inlet.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Overcast skies with rain picking up early morning.

2) Growing signal for a fast moving low traversing the eastern
CONUS early next week bringing brief rainfall.

Aviation...Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions likely to last into
Saturday morning (50-70% chance).

Marine...SCA conditions improving this morning. Next period of
SCA conditions possible Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Cold front is moving in from the north early
this morning, shifting winds from SW to N behind it. Main slug
of precipitation in ILM`s area moving NE this morning along the
slowed down/stalled front once it settles along our southern
tier of counties. Along this boundary a weak low is expected to
form later today to our south before riding the Gulf Stream.
Impacts from this system are expected to be low to none, just
bringing some light to moderate rain to the region, best chances
along the coast. Precip may linger along the coast and areas
offshore through much of Friday and Friday night, but QPF
amounts are expected to be low during this time.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Once the Friday front clears
through a few dry days are expected for the weekend as high
pressure extends in from the north. The next potential system
will come through the area early next week as a quick moving low
zips across the central plains and mid- Atlantic. Precipitation
amounts look to be a bit lower for this system compared to
today`s. Enough spread remains in model guidance on timing that
slight chance to chance PoPs were maintained this morning. GFS
is trying to show some mixed precip moving into NE NC with this
system, but it is seen as an outlier, and a very unlikely
outcome. This is due to the known cold bias of the GFS, and the
lack of support from other models.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Early this morning, a stalling frontal boundary has set up shop
just south of ENC. A cool and moist northeasterly flow north of
the front is responsible for the widespread IFR/LIFR conditions
ongoing at this time. This setup isn`t expected to change much,
if at all, today. In light of this, the expectation is for
IFR/LIFR conditions to be the prevailing conditions through the
day. There may be occasional rises to low-end MVFR for a time,
but any rise like this should be short-lived. Meanwhile, RA is
beginning to overspread the area again from the southwest, and
this will lead to reduced VIS of 1-3SM at times. Occasionally,
VIS <1SM has been reported over the past few hours, but this is
not expected to be widespread as obs upstream in the heavier RA
are only showing 3-5SM VIS. RA is expected to shift away from
the area by this evening. However, low CIGs will remain, and are
likely to linger into Saturday morning. Given the very moist
low-levels expected in the wake of the RA, a mix of low CIGs and
BR/FG is expected.

Outlook: Improving aviation conditions are likely by Saturday
afternoon. A cold front then moves through Sunday afternoon or
evening with a northerly wind shift. Behind the front comes the
next chance of sub-VFR conditions associated with the next
weather system. This system may also bring the next chance of
precipitation.

&&

.MARINE...
SW winds are shifting to become northerly 10-15 knots behind a
cold front moving through the region. SCA continues over the
next 2 hours cape to cape for lingering seas 4-6 ft. NE winds
around 15 kt or less will continue on Friday with seas
decreasing to around 2-4 ft. Light cool northerly winds over
cold SSTs in the northern waters could allow for some sea fog to
form. Confidence is low at this point, but will be worth
monitoring once the sun rises.

Outlook: High pressure ridging into the region from the north
gradually weakens Friday night and Saturday with N to NE winds
around 10-20 kt with seas around 2-5 ft. Next period of SCA
likely Mon and Tuesday in increasing northeasterly flow.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RJ
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...RJ