Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

498
FXUS62 KMHX 051938
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
338 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
SCAs have been issued for PamSound and coastal waters S or
Oregon Inlet for MON night.

Aviation disco updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Oppressive heat and humidity continues into the beginning of
the work week.

2) A more active pattern takes shape, especially Monday and
Tuesday, where showers and storms are expected each day.

3) Another round of dangerously high heat and humidity builds
mid to late week into the weekend.

4) A very unstable atmosphere develops in tandem with the high
heat and humidity mid to late in the week, and could produce a
few strong to severe thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Today`s fcst calls for lower Max temps by
several degrees compared to yesterday`s records, and thus
AppTs will drop a few degrees as Tds remain relatively the
same. Spots this afternoon have been bouncing right around the
HeatAdvy criteria. Have continued to blend NBM with ECS/MAV/MET
guidance which is closer to reality as NBM continues several
degrees too high with MaxTs. Not a completely dry forecast for
the entire FA this evening as outflow from convection
originating W of the area colliding with the seabreeze may lead
to some short lived pop up tstorms between 1700-2300edt over the
Wern born of the FA.

For tonight, increasing moisture with rising Tds behind a weak
warm front lifting through the area will make for a very
oppressive overnight with MinTs in the mid/upr 70s interior to
low 80s coast.

Monday, temps continue to drop a few degrees again as thickness
decrease with the decaying ridge. MON MaxTs mainly in the low
90s inland to upper 80s coast. However, with the aforementioned
higher Tds in place, heat indices may actually be a few degrees
higher than today`s readings. Contemplated extending the heat
advisory through the Sunday night into the Monday afternoon
period, though held off as convective initiation may occur by as
early as noon Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Return to a pattern of increased shower and
tstorms chances Mon into Tue, possibly into Wed as well. A
series of shortwaves, inland troughing, and a very slow moving
backdoor front will converge to produce higher than climo
coverage of showers and storms each afternoon to early evening,
and PoP continue in the 50-70% range, with much needed rain
across a good portion of ENC expected. Wind shear will be very
low, suggesting storm organization will be very limited.
However, as with any summer storm, cannot rule out some wet
microbursts as PWATs will be quite high, in the 2.25" range and
stronger mature storms will carry the potential for some gusty
winds toward the end of their life-cycle. Because of this, SPC
has outlined areas along and W of HWY17 in a Marginal Risk
(1/5) of severe tstorms. Another round of decent covg of
afternoon showers/storms possible Wed as the aforementioned
boundaries may still be in place.

Beyond mid week, PoPs return back to climo (20-40%) as more
typical seabreeze showers/storms return. Hts/thicknesses slowly
build in the process as ridging begins to build once again, with
heat indices 100-105 in the forecast.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Aforementioned ridging builds mid to late week
into the weekend, as ensemble mean heights rise back to above
normal, and forecast temps reach well into the 90s, pushing heat
indices to potentially AoA 105 deg again as a very humid
atmosphere will be in place as well. EFI for both Min/MaxTs are
pushing into the 80th percentile esp late in the week.

KEY MESSAGE 4...With the aforementioned high heat and humidity
expected, a very unstable atmosphere develops per med range
guidance hinting at ML CAPES aoa 3.5k J/KG, and SFC based
instability between 4-5k J/KG. As is typical this time of year,
deep layer shear will not be too strong, but any storms that can
develop with some upper level support could produce strong
downdraft/microburst winds and very heavy rain characterized by
PW`s exceeding 2".

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Carrying a VFR flight cat TAF through the period. Continued
TEMPO group mention for gusty Serly winds behind the seabreeze.
Cloud coverage will be higher than it has been of late with weak
warm front lifting Nward overhead, kicking off next week`s
moisture transport. Pessimistic guidance shows a chance of MVFR
or lower stratus, but probs appear to be low for this. Keep FEW
mention of FL009047-
     079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight Monday night to 8 AM EDT
     Tuesday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight Monday night to 10 AM EDT
     Tuesday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Monday to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for
     AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TL/CEB
AVIATION...TL/CEB
MARINE...TL/CEB