Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

893
FXUS62 KMHX 090805
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
405 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation Disco updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A typical summertime pattern with shower and thunderstorm chances
being diurnal in nature. An extended period of hot temperatures are
also expected this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A typical summer time pattern will be in place
through much the week with Bermuda High pressure centered off
the Southeast coast and a thermal trough across the piedmont.
Near zonal flow aloft with a series of shortwave troughs
pushing across the area will result climo precip chances for
the next several days with best chances through peak heating and
seabreeze related for the most part but will also depend on
timing and exact location of individual shortwave troughs. The
severe threat appears minimal for the next few days with
limited shear, though somewhat better shear develops toward the
middle of the week.

Hot temperatures continue through the week as well with highs
in the lower 90s inland into Monday, then warming in to the mid
90s Tue/Wed and beyond. Temps generally in the mid to upper 80s
along the coast. The probabilities for Major Heat Risk increase
to around 50-80% Monday through Thursday with highest probs on
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AMD NOT SKED continues to be appended to the KEWN TAF due to an
ongoing FAA comms issue that is impacting dissemination of the
observation information. However, TAFs will continue to be issued
while the issue is troubleshooted. NKT is the closest ASOS. EWN is
able to be dialed into to receive METARs.

Pred VFR across rtes early this morning, though seeing shallow
fog bringing periods of IFR/LIFR conditions to a couple of
terminals across far southern rtes, with OAJ the most impacted.
HREF probs for IFR or less conditions are around 40-60% for the
Duplin/Onlsow Co areas but 20% or less elsewhere, so think most
other areas will remain VFR. The fog will dissipate quickly
after sunrise. Could see an isolated shower or thunderstorm
develop along the sea breeze today but most guidance keeps probs
around 20 percent or less. HREF probs for fog/stratus
development is a bit lower tonight at less than 25%.

Outlook (Monday through Thursday): Primarily VFR conditions and
light winds are forecast into mid week as high pressure builds
into the area. Given ample low level moisture there is a low end
chance for patchy ground fog to develop each morning. Isolated
to scattered convection will be possible each day that could
bring brief periods of sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
A typical summertime pattern will prevail with S-SW winds
around 5-15 kt during the morning hours, increasing to around
10-20 kt during the afternoon and evening as temps warm inland
bringing a tightening of gradients between the thermal trough
inland and the offshore high. Gusts may approach SCA conditions
across the Pamlico, Croatan/Roanoke Sounds and coastal waters
north of Cape Hatteras at times but currently not anticipating
any SCA headlines for any waters given the short and infrequent
nature of any stronger gusts. Seas will remain around 2-4 ft.

Scattered shower and thunderstorms across the offshore waters
this morning associated with a trough rotating around the
Bermuda High will pull away from the waters this afternoon. A
series of shortwave troughs will then push across the coastal
waters through the week continuing to bring periods if showers
and thunderstorms, most prevalent bring nocturnal driven over
the Gulf Stream waters.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SK/RCF
AVIATION...SK/RCF
MARINE...SK/RCF