Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

970
FXUS62 KMHX 060017
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
817 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increased Fire Danger Statement has been issued for Saturday.
Another IFD statement will be issued again for Sunday.

Updated Aviation Disco

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry conditions and a warming trend is forecast through the
weekend.

2) Increased Fire Danger threat across the area Saturday and
Sunday.

3) Next chance of precip Sun night into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...High pressure centered over the SE will continue
to shift offshore overnight. High pressure then becomes
anchored off the coast through the weekend. This will bring
steady S-SW`rly flow, increasing low level thicknesses, and
warming temps with highs forecast to climb into the low to mid
90s inland and 80s along the coast and OBX Sat and Sun bringing
a return to more summer like temps. Lows only get down into the
60s/70s each night not providing much relief from the heat each
day. While we will stay below heat headline criteria, the
culmination of hot temps in the day and warm temps at night are
forecast to lead to an elevated risk of seeing moderate HeatRisk
impacts which would affect those sensitive to heat and those
without proper cooling or hydration.

KEY MESSAGE 2...NCFS has requested Increased Fire Danger
statements Saturday and Sunday for the entire forecast area due
to the ongoing drought conditions, dry fuels and low RH values.

KEY MESSAGE 3...The cold front is still forecast to push south
through the area late Sun night into Monday. 12z guidance
continues to trend drier with the front and pops continue to
decrease from previous forecasts. Will note, latest guidance
does suggest not much instability will build across the region
on Monday with widespread cloud cover associated with the
aforementioned front, which in turn could end up lowering the
thunder threat for Mon if trends hold. Either way we are
monitoring trends in the fronts timing in case the thunderstorm
risk increases. Winds look to become NE`rly behind this front
and with low level thicknesses also lowering, this will result
in temps lowering towards the middle of next week closer to
seasonal norms before our next risk at above normal temps late
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR flight cats are expected through the period with cloud
coverage limited to the upper levels tonight and tomorrow
morning. Coastal sites experiencing some stronger Serly winds
in the wake of the seabreeze and those will ease through the
remainder of the evening. Overnight, light SSW winds combined
with dry airmass should limit the fog threat. SAT, strengthening
SWerly winds will lead to some gusts up ~15kt during peak
heating with some diurnal CU in place before the seabreeze.


Outlook: High pressure will remain centered offshore this
weekend before pushing out to sea ahead of an approaching cold
front. Predominantly VFR conditions are expected through the
weekend with high pressure in control. As we get into late Sun
night into Monday, there will be a chance at some sub-VFR
conditions as showers and tstms associated with an incoming
cold front could bring some reduced vis/ceilings to ENC. VFR
conditions then likely return by Tue.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs show light WSW-SW winds 5-10 kt and seas 2-4 ft. High
pressure overhead will continue to shift offshore tonight, and
remain anchored off the coast through the weekend. SSW winds
will increase to 10-15 kt later this afternoon and evening. Will
see an enhanced thermal gradient Sat afternoon 10-20 kt winds
which would bring a risk for occasional gusts to 25 kts across
the Pamlico, Croatan/Roanoke Sounds, and northern Coastal waters
Sat afternoon and evening.

Outlook: A more typical warm-season pattern persists through the
Sunday with south to southwesterly flow and localized surges in
the late afternoon and evening associated with thermal
gradients. A frontal passage Sunday night into Monday will
bring the next wind shift and threat for showers and thunderstorms
to our waters. Marginal SCA conditions will be possible Monday
night into Tuesday with modest NE surge 10-20 kt and building
seas.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Saturday through
     Saturday evening for NCZ196-204-205.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CQD/RCF
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...CQD