Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

948
FXUS62 KMHX 301825
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
225 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A dry backdoor cold front will push through tonight bringing
near normal temps with continued dry conditions over the
weekend.

2) Next rain chance arrives by mid next week with a low
pressure system moving out of the Deep South.

Marine: The backdoor front will bring a surge of northerly SCA
winds and seas tonight into Saturday evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Warm and dry conditions this afternoon with
sunny skies and temps around 80 inland and 70s along the coast.
A dry back door cold front will push through the region tonight
bringing a cool down over the weekend with temps dropping to
near normal and lows near to slightly above normal over the
weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2...High pres ridge begins to break down by Wednesday
as an amplified upper trough over the central CONUS approaches
the region. The attendant sfc low lifts into the Great Lakes
late Wednesday into Thursday with a warm front currently
progged to lift across ENC Thursday followed by the trailing
cold front Thursday night. There is decent spread in QPF amounts
among the models with this system but blend of models is
currently showing around a quarter to three quarters of an inch,
which won`t make much of an impact to ongoing drought conditions
across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Pred VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. There is a
chance for a brief period of shallow fog to develop late this
evening into the early morning hours ahead of a backdoor cold
front. Probs are highest at around 30-50% near the Crystal
Coast. Increasing NE winds behind the front will scour away any
fog. Winds will gust to around 20-25 kt on Saturday. Could see
MVFR STCU develop along the coast Saturday but should remain
east of the TAF sites with KMRH having the greatest potential
to see MVFR cigs.

Outlook (Sat night through Wed): Expect VFR conditions expected
over the weekend into early next week as strong high pressure
builds in from the north over the weekend into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds across the waters this afternoon with seas around
3-5 ft. A backdoor cold front will push across the waters
overnight with a NE surge developing bringing SCA conditions
across the coastal waters. Could see a few hours with gusts to
around SCA for the sounds and Alligator River but not enough to
warrant an SCA here at this time. Winds and seas diminish Sat
night with the nearshore coastal waters expected to drop below
SCA criteria.

Outlook (Sun through Wed):
Conditions gradually improve early next week, though next rounds
of high seas as early as Tue with next system approaching from
the S and W.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 PM EDT
     Saturday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 1 AM EDT Sunday
     for AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SK/TL
AVIATION...SK/TL
MARINE...SK/TL