Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

331
FXUS62 KMHX 081142
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
642 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Small Craft Advisories issued for waters north of Ocracoke Inlet
Monday morning and afternoon.

Aviation Disco Updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cooler, drier, and more seasonable behind the frontal
passage this weekend.

2) Well below normal temperatures expected late next week and
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Cooler airmass continues to build into the area
this morning behind yesterday`s cold front as high pressure
expands in from the west. Today will be the coolest day of the
week until next weekend (see the next key message) with highs in
the low to mid 60s. With periods of light winds tonight, likely
interrupted by a reinforcing front passing over, some patchy
frost is possible overnight in well sheltered areas where lows
may fall into the upper 30s. This may be tempered by a thick
deck of cirri passing overhead.

Monday night continues to look like the best candidate for more
widespread frost as skies remain clear and winds inland will
likely be calm as the high crests overhead. Like the previous
shift, nudged overnight lows down a few degrees closer to NBM
10th percentile, and did the same for Tuesday night with little
change in the pattern, resulting in forecast lows in the mid to
upper 30s.

Beyond this period, guidance continues to depict an
increasingly unsettled pattern as complex mid-level low deepens
over the eastern CONUS and likely drives coastal low development
off the east coast. Evolution and strength of the low remain
uncertain, but it will at least bring our best chances of rain
for the period and breezier conditions across the Outer Banks.
Stay tuned for more details in the coming days.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Guidance continues to strongly hint at
unseasonable cold temperatures next weekend behind the low
pressure system. While there is inherent uncertainty 7 days out,
CPC does have a slight risk of much below normal temperatures
for our coastal plain counties next weekend. This will be worth
monitoring for any freeze headlines, as the end of the growing
season is Nov 25 for our land forecast zones.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 0630est...High pressure expands over terminals from the
west with low departing to NE. VFR flight cats in place through
bulk of near term. Some clouds>FL200 through day clear through
SUN morning to become SKC second half of today through tonight.
Thin layers of patchy MIFG possible in areas that decouple
temporarily, but background winds are forecast to stay in the
3-5kt range. Have included tempo groups for this ground fog
potential, but not expecting any significant impacts to flight
ops. NW-N winds in the morning becoming predominantly W this
afternoon and eventually SW this evening. Winds AoB 5kt. Dry
front crosses late tonight without any significant impacts.

Outlook: An extended period of VFR conditions is expected with much
drier airmass and high pressure over the region through midweek.

&&

.MARINE...
Secondary surge of dry air is driving an uptick in NW winds this
morning with winds of 15-20 kt and occasional gusts to 25 kt,
but seas have managed to fall below 6 feet. This surge will end
by morning with lighter winds of 5-15 kt expected after sunrise
today. Main feature of interest is a second dry cold front
expected to transit the waters on Monday, with guidance trending
upward in SW to W winds ahead of the front at 15-20 kt with
higher gusts. This surge also looks marginal for gusts, but
considering higher antecedent seas it will likely be enough to
boost seas back above 6 feet for much of Monday. Therefore,
issued a new SCA for the waters north of Ocracoke Inlet.

Outlook: Benign boating conditions expected through the period
with NW winds backing W to SW by mid-week ahead of the next
storm system expected to impact the region beyond Wednesday.
Magnitude of impacts remains uncertain but at least SCA
conditions and elevated seas are likely for most waters into the
weekend.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MS/RJ
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...MS/RJ