Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

781
FXUS62 KMHX 011115
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
615 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Small Craft Advisories for the central and southern waters
have been extended out further in time.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warm with showers and thunderstorms possible Wednesday-
Friday

Marine: Elevated winds and seas continue into today, especially
south of Cape Hatteras.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Medium range guidance are beginning to converge
on a solution for the mid to late-week period, but there are
still some notable differences. Where guidance is fairly well
clustered is with an amplified upper trough that will be
shifting east out of the Central U.S. While there is still some
potential for a cutoff low to develop, most guidance have now
trended towards more of a progressive and open wave as it moves
through the Eastern U.S. Guidance differ on the timing, which
leads to differences in precipitation placement, temperatures,
etc. But, most guidance is now centering on the best chance of
showers and thunderstorms coming Thursday and/or Friday. Of
note, some guidance are showing anomalous moisture and higher-
than-normal instability for early November. This would support
the potential of some higher rainfall rates and totals should
this materialize. It may even support at least a marginal risk
of strong to severe thunderstorms. While there is some synoptic
support for this potential, machine learning guidance doesn`t
show that strong of a signal. It`s something worth keeping an
eye on as the evolution of the upper level, and surface, pattern
become more clear.

The other aspect of the forecast that appears to be coming more
clear this week is the potential for above to well above normal
temperatures, especially Wednesday and Thursday. While record
highs may not be broken, warming low-level thicknesses in
advance of the approaching trough should support highs warming
into the 70s, with some low 80s possible inland. Meanwhile,
overnight lows are forecast to be closer to our normal highs for
this time of year. Some record warm lows may be in jeopardy.
For reference, normal highs are around 70 in early November,
with normal lows in the 40s inland and 50s along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecast confidence is high over the next 24 hours.

The weather pattern over the next 24 hours remains mostly
unchanged from the past 24 hours, with a northeast flow regime
and widespread high CIGs. The northeast winds may be gusty at
times on Sunday, but mainly at KMRH. Later tonight, some of the
latest short-term guidance is hinting at the potential for
reduced VIS in BR/MIFG. For now, the TAFs will not reflect this
potential, mainly due to the expectation that widespread high
clouds will limit radiational cooling potential, making the risk
lower.

Outlook: While the weather pattern doesn`t drastically change,
a moistening easterly flow and a weak upper level wave may
support a risk of sub-VFR CIGs and SHRA Monday through Monday
night, especially for coastal TAF sites. Confidence in this risk
developing is moderate. Drier air is expected to move in on
Tuesday, likely lowering the risk of sub-VFR CIGs and SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
A pinched surface gradient remains in place today with coastal
troughing offshore and a strong surface high anchored over the
Mid- Atlantic States. This should continue to support elevated
northeast winds of 15-25kt through much of the day. It may not
be until Monday that the gradient begins to relax more notably.
The elevated winds will continue to keep seas up, with 4-6 foot
seas common for most coastal waters. By Monday afternoon, seas
are forecast to lay down to 3-5 ft. Small Craft Advisories
remain in effect for the nearshore coastal waters where elevated
winds and seas are forecast to have the most impact. Some
extensions in time may be needed, especially for the waters
south of Ocracoke Inlet. In fact, some guidance suggests
elevated seas may last into Monday in that area.

Outlook: Coastal troughing is forecast to remain intact through
at least the middle of the week, with the strongest gradient
and highest winds focused across the central and southern
waters. The coastal trough may drift inland by Wednesday with
more of a dominant easterly flow developing for most waters. The
flow then begins to become southeasterly by Thursday in the
wake of the inland-advancing coastal trough. Guidance continue
to keep probs for 25kt+ winds low through Thursday. However,
there is a broad signal for low pressure development over the
Southwest Atlantic later in the week. Should this occur, there
may be an accompanying risk of 6ft+ long-period swell
development.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ152-
     154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RM
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...RM