Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

334
FXUS62 KMHX 141037
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
637 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All marine headlines have been expired.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Brief reprieve from the dangerous heat through today, then
hot and humid conditions return through the rest of the week

2) Unsettled pattern expected to return by this weekend,
including the next risk of strong to severe thunderstorms

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Weak low pressure off the coast of NC will
gradually shift away from the area today, but with a not-as-hot
northeasterly flow lingering for one more day. We should see
more sunshine by this afternoon which will help boost highs into
the mid to upper 80s, which is near or slightly below normal
for mid-July.

After today, southerly flow returns for the rest of the week.
This will support warming temperatures, rising humidity, and an
increasing heat risk. The heat risk is expected to peak
Thursday- Sunday, although the return of a more convectively
active pattern may hold the heat risk down some, especially from
Sunday into early next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Deterministic, ensemble, and machine learning
guidance continue to show a strong signal for a more
convectively active pattern returning by the weekend, and
potentially continuing into next week. Additionally, machine
learning and analog guidance suggest a pattern that is also
favorable for strong to severe convection. This is supported by
deterministic guidance, especially Saturday-Monday. PWATs are
forecast to rise back above 2" as well, suggesting a pattern
favorable for heavy rain and potentially some hydro concerns.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Sub-VFR CIGs have only recently developed across parts of ENC,
and mainly south of most TAF sites. Guidance suggests these CIGs
may expand north some, potentially clipping KEWN and KOAJ for a
short time, along with a risk of SHRA and isolated TSRA. In
general, the TSRA risk is expected to be more muted today
(10-20% chance). Given the low probability, TSRA remain out of
the TAF sites for today.

If sufficient clearing occurs late tonight, the setup appears
favorable for BR/FG development, potentially with a risk of
IFR/LIFR conditions.

Outlook (Wednesday through Saturday): A drier and more muted
TSRA pattern is expected again Wednesday and Thursday.
Eventually, a more active TSRA pattern should develop by the end
of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure south of ENC will gradually weaken and shift away
from the area today. Until then, a modest east to northeast wind
of 10- 15kt will continue today. Winds lay down tonight to
around 5-10kt. Seas of 3-6ft this morning will gradually lay
down to 2-4ft by tonight.

Outlook (Wednesday through Saturday): Southerly flow continues
on into the upcoming weekend, steadily building each day. Winds
are expected to peak over the weekend along with elevated seas.
The next opportunity for marine headlines is expected with the
building winds and seas this weekend. A more active thunderstorm
pattern is expected over the weekend as well.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ196-203-
     205.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RM
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...RM