Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

996
FXUS62 KMHX 021038
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
638 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Made some adjustments to PoPs on Wednesday and Thursday

Made adjustments to ending times of ongoing SCA`s

Updated Aviation Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cooler air lingers today and tonight behind a departing cold
front.

2) Cool and trending drier as a coastal low looks to remain off
the coast Wed and Thurs.

3) Hotter conditions return this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1... Positively tilted upper level trough gradually
dives S`wards today across the Mid-Atlantic while a mid level
shortwave pushes out to sea. At the surface, cold front has
pushed offshore resulting in dry conditions. We remain dry
through today as high pressure gradually builds in from the
north and west. However, the pressure gradient tightens between
the incoming high and departing front resulting in breezy
NE`rly winds. 20-25 mph gusts will be possible across inland
areas today, while 25-35 mph wind gusts will be noted across the
OBX later this morning and afternoon. While winds will be
breezy, expect MinRH`s across the inland areas to remain at or
above 30% for the most part so not anticipating any elevated
fire conditions for now. Only other thing we are monitoring is
the potential for high surf across beaches north of Cape
Hatteras as an elevated fetch of NE winds bring longer period
swell to the area later tonight. For now latest guidance
suggests peak wave periods of 10 seconds with wave heights
around 7 ft keeping us just below the threshold for headlines.
Will be monitoring marine obs today in case a short fused high
surf advisory is needed later today.

Highs today get into the upper 60s along the OBX and coast to
the mid 70s inland which will be notably cooler than previous
days. As we get into tonight, high pressure continues to build
in from the north and west relaxing the pressure gradient and
weakening the winds. With clear skies and winds becoming light
and variable to calm tonight a great radiational cooling night
is ahead as lows are forecast to get into the upper 40s to low
50s inland and upper 50s to low 60s along the OBX.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Previously mentioned positively tilted upper-
level trough will push offshore on Wed and cutoff, which will
help keep a developing coastal low well offshore Wed/Thurs.
Guidance continues to keep this low farther offshore, and odds
of any associated shower activity bleeding onshore continues to
remain low both days. For now have left SChc PoPs along the OBX
Wed and Thurs, but could see mentionable PoPs push offshore in
coming updates with just mostly cloudy skies across the OBX if
trends continue. The more noticeable impact from this feature
will be stronger northerly gradient winds, which could gust to 20-30
mph along the coast. Temps remain slightly below average on Wed
and Thurs as NE flow keeps the area cool with highs reaching the
low to mid 80s inland and low to mid 70s along the OBX each day
with lows in the 50s to 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 3...As we get into the end of the week, low
offshore is forecast to push further out to sea with high
pressure becoming anchored off the coast this weekend. This
will bring steady SW`rly flow, increasing low level thicknesses,
and warming temps with highs forecast to get back into the 90s
inland and 80s along the coast and OBX bringing a return to
more summer like temps. Long term probabilistic guidance
suggests there is room for forecast highs to trend higher
(probability of a Moderate or higher HeatRisk is already 60-80%+
on Saturday/Sunday), so those sensitive to heat issues are
encouraged to keep an eye on trends over the next few days. Will
note some guidance has picked up on a frontal passage occuring
on Mon which would result in temps cooling and increased precip
chances early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure has begun to build into ENC this morning with a
cold front now noted well to the south. This has brought some
drier air in sooner than previously forecast limiting the amount
of MVFR ceilings across ENC. Expect VFR conditions across all
TAF sites and the remainder of ENC through the period as high
pressure continues to settle in. However, over the next few
hours winds will increase with gusts up around 15-20 kts
possible later this morning into the afternoon as the pressure
gradient remains pinched between the aforementioned high and a
developing low well to the east. These elevated winds then
persist into this evening before decreasing as high pressure
continues to build in from the north and west allowing the
pressure gradient to relax.

Outlook: Winds will remain out of the NE on Wednesday but remain
lighter as compared to Tuesday with a slight chance of showers
(mainly along the OBX). Winds eventually shift to S`rly
direction by late Thursday and into Friday and remain light into
this weekend. Predominantly VFR conditions are expected for the
remainder of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Not much change in forecast thinking for the next few days as
SCA`s will remain in place across all our waters today and into
tonight. Cold front is currently analyzed along the far
southern waters this morning and will continue to push out to
sea later today. Behind this front, NE winds at 15-25 kts with
gusts up to 30 kts are noted across all our waters as the
gradient remains tight between this departing front and incoming
ridge of high pressure. The pressure gradient will remain
pinched into Wednesday as a coastal low develops and deepens
well offshore. This will keep winds N-NE`rly at 15-25 kts across
our coastal waters with gusts up to 25-30 kts. Will note with
high pressure gradually building over ENC tonight do expect
winds to gradually begin to ease tonight across the inland
waters with gusts falling below 25 kts thus ending SCA`s across
the inland waters by 12Z Wed. Seas along our coastal waters will
continue to increase today building to 7-12ft mainly north of
Cape Lookout and across the 20-60 NM zones. These elevated seas
continue into later this week keeping SCA`s in place here. Weak
signal remains for a brief window of Gales over the waters
south of Hatteras beyond 20 nm, but is still too weak to include
headlines this morning.

Outlook: SCA conditions come to an end by the end of this week
with a return to more typical warm-season patterns in south to
southwesterly flow and localized surges in the late afternoon
and evening associated with thermal gradients.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ196-
     203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ131-230-
     231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ136-
     137.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RCF
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...RCF