Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

400
FXUS62 KMHX 051112
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
612 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Added patchy, dense fog to the forecast for this morning west of
HWY 17.

Widely scattered showers along and just inland from the coast
overnight due to coastal trough.

Maintained highest thunder chances for coastal plain counties
Friday with potential severe.

Raised max temps on the OBX through Friday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warm with increasing moisture and isolated showers through
Thursday.

2) Widespread showers and a few severe thunderstorms possible
ahead of a cold front on Friday.

3) Cooler, drier, and more seasonable behind the frontal passage
this weekend.

Aviation: LIFR conditions possible through early Thursday
morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Little change to the forecast reasoning and
synoptic setup through today. An amplified upper trough will be
shifting east out of the Central U.S. A progressive and open
wave will sweep through the Eastern U.S at the end of the week.
Before that happens, low level flow is currently veering
southeast to south as weak coastal trough lifts through, which
is producing some widely scattered showers from southern coastal
areas northeast through the western Pamlico Sound vicinity. West
of the showers, another round of low stratus and patchy, dense
fog will impact the HWY 17 corridor through about 9am this
morning. With no forcing in place will maintain PoPs generally
less than 20% this afternoon. Warm today with highs in the
lower 80s interior to 70s beaches. Overnight lows remain above
climatology, with readings in the 60s the next few nights.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Friday - Still looks like widespread showers
and a few thunderstorms breaking out during the afternoon into
evening as a cold front moves through Eastern NC. Anomalous
moisture and higher-than-normal instability for early November
is expected, as indicated by EFI highlighting CAPE vals nearing
the 80th percentile. Have maintained thunder threat for inland
areas where the EFI is highlighting the higher CAPE/Shear
indices inland, and where highest instability and shear will
reside. If best forcing lines up with peak heating, a strong to
severe thunderstorm threat would materialize for areas
especially west of HWY 17 Friday afternoon. Main threat would
be damaging wind gusts. The front sweeps offshore late Friday
with any remaining showers exiting the OBX before daybreak Sat.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Good agreement amongst models with frontal
passage late Friday, allowing a more seasonably dry airmass to
usher in for the weekend. Return to mostly sunny skies and
highs in the upper 60s to low 70s Sat, then cooler yet for Sun
with 60-65. Lows will be in the 40s, with some 30s for some of
the normally colder spots.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecast confidence is moderate over the next 24 hours.

Like yesterday morning, an area of low stratus and BR/FG has
developed, but this time it is focused over a slightly smaller area,
impacting KOAJ, KISO, and KPGV. VIS and CIGs have been bouncing up
and down which makes that TAFs more difficult to nail down. The
expectation is that occasional drops to LIFR/IFR will remain a risk
through around 13-14z before CIGs and VIS begin to improve back
towards MVFR/VFR. East of the low stratus, VFR CIGs and SHRA have
been impacting KMRH and KEWN. Some of the heavier SHRA have had
reductions to MVFR VIS for short periods of time. Through the day,
some of these SHRA may work inland, but any that do should be very
brief. Later tonight, another round of low stratus appears possible.
However, the expectation is that there will be enough wind to limit
the BR/FG risk. More SHRA may begin encroaching on the area from the
west as well, as a cold front slowly edges east through central
NC.

Outlook: On Friday, a cold front is forecast to move through with an
increased risk of SHRA and TSRA. Some of the strongest TSRA may be
accompanied by a risk of strong winds of 40kt+. Very heavy rain and
IFR/LIFR VIS will be possible as well. The northwest wind shift
along the front is expected to occur Friday evening or Friday night.
A drier northwesterly flow behind the front should then support
mainly VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Light to moderate southeasterly winds will continue through the
period (strongest across the outer southern and central
waters). Seas 3-5 ft will gradually build through tonight with
developing SE winds and increasing swell from low pressure well
offshore. Seas will build to 3-5 ft nearshore and 4-6 ft
offshore through Friday. Scattered light showers will be
possible through Thursday.

Outlook (Friday through Monday): Southerly winds will cont in
the 5-15 kt range, though a better chance for some advected 6+
ft seas as weak low pressure develops well offshore Friday into
the weekend. Cold front passes through late Friday, with winds
turning northwesterly behind the frontal passage but should
cont remaining below 25 knots, though elevated seas around 6 ft
or greater may cont.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DAG/RM/TL
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...DAG/TL