Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

759
FXUS62 KMHX 031211
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
811 AM EDT Sun May 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Small Craft Advisories cancelled.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) The post-frontal airmass will bring cooler and drier
conditions with below normal temperatures through Monday.

2) A cold front will move through on Thursday, bringing gusty
winds and increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms, some
of which could be strong to severe.

Marine: Small Craft Advisories in effect for portions of the
waters through early this afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...This morning`s temperatures will be the coldest
of the week (low 40s inland/low 50s Outer Banks) as cooler,
drier air spills in behind the front that`s now offshore. Today,
skies will be clear and highs will be well below normal (mid/upper
60s inland/mid 60s Outer Banks). Winds shift back to the
southwest tomorrow as high pressure expands across the SE. Skies
will remain clear and highs will be about 10 degrees warmer
than today (mid/upper 70s inland, low 70s Outer Banks).

KEY MESSAGE 2...The pattern becomes active again by mid-week. A
positively tilted upper-level trough will move across the
Midwest on Thursday, becoming neutral to negatively tilted over
the eastern US Thursday evening. At the surface, a cold front
will cross the Midwest on Tuesday before stalling
Wednesday/early Thursday across the Appalachians. A low will
develop along this front, but there are model differences in the
speed of the front and the strength and track of the low.
General consensus is that the front will cross ENC late Thursday
afternoon/evening.

Isolated showers could start as early as Wednesday night with
increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms through
Thursday. The latest NSSL severe probs show a 10-30% chance of
severe storms with greatest chances being near the coast. Given
the favorable FROPA timing of late afternoon/evening, ample
bulk shear (60+ kt) and sufficient instability, a few strong to
potentially severe storms will be possible. Showers and
thunderstorms ahead of the front could dampen destabilization
and decrease the severe threat, but it`s still too far out to
determine coverage.

In addition to showers and storms, Thursday will bring strong SW
winds with gusts to approximately 30 mph inland and 35-40 mph
along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions are currently noted across ENC this morning. With
high pressure building overhead expect VFR conditions to persist
through Monday morning as dry air limits any cloud development
and fog formation over the next 24 hours. Light NW winds this
morning increase closer to 10 kts with gusts up around 15 kts at
times this afternoon before winds once again become light
tonight.

Outlook: Predominantly VFR flight conditions should persist into
early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft advisories have been cancelled with winds below 25
knots and seas below 6 ft. Winds and seas gradually continue
decreasing through the day. Tonight, winds will return to the
SW and relax to 5-10 kt with seas subsiding to 3-4 ft. SW winds
will increase to 10-20 kt tomorrow with seas at 2-3 ft.


Outlook: 10-20 kt SW winds will continue through Wednesday.
A cold front will cross the area on Thursday, increasing winds
and seas both ahead of and behind it. There`s potential for SW Gale
force gusts ahead of the front for most of Thursday across the
coastal waters and Pamlico Sound. Additionally, strong to
potentially severe thunderstorms will be possible.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203-
     205.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...OJC
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...OJC/RJ