Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

561
FXUS62 KMHX 010811
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
311 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Fog threat continues early this morning. Small Craft Advisories
have been expanded, now including all marine zones except the
Pamlico/Pungo rivers. Gale chances have gone down with this
update. Brought temperatures down 5-10F Monday given the
expected cold air damming setup.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A quick moving cold front will bring a chance for brief scattered
showers Sunday evening.

2) Rain chances return Monday evening through Tuesday with
shortwaves moving through aloft.

3) Warming trend Tuesday through the end of the week with well-above
normal high temperatures.

4) Patchy dense fog will be possible this morning.

Marine...Widespread SCA conditions expected Sunday night and
Monday with the potential for infrequent gale-force gusts south
of Cape Hatteras.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...There will be quite the temperature gradient
today with inland areas reaching the low to mid 70s while the
Outer Banks will max out in the 50s. A quick moving cold front
will drop south across the area this evening. Strong forcing
and higher PWATs (~1") along the front will support the
potential for scattered showers, so slight chance to chance
PoPs have been maintained with this forecast update. Lack of
instability and weaker upper level support should keep us
thunder free along this front. Behind the front, a tight
pressure gradient with high building in will bring a surge of breezy
conditions with wind gusts 20-25 mph inland tonight, increasing
to 25-35 mph along the coast.

KEY MESSAGE 2...CAA behind Sunday night`s front paired with the
cold air damming setup will let overcast skies linger and keep
temperatures cooler on Monday with highs in the low to mid 40s
for most, increasing to around 50 for coastal locales. A few
shortwaves will move through late Monday and into Tuesday and
bring the next chance for scattered light showers across the
area. While the GFS is still holding onto snow chances at the
NC/VA border, this is not expected to extend south into our
county warning area.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Upper ridging will move in on Tuesday and start a
warming trend that will last through the rest of the week as a
surface high sits offshore late week. On Tuesday, highs will
range from the low/mid 60s inland to mid 50s/low 60s at the
beaches. By Friday and Saturday, temperatures will range from
the low 80s inland to low 60s at the beaches. Given the sharp
temperature contrast between the cold waters and warm land,
there`s potential for a few isolated showers to develop along
any river/sound/sea breezes in the afternoons Friday onwards.


KEY MESSAGE 4...Skies remain clear and winds have remained calm
across ENC early this morning. In addition to that, ample low
level moisture remains in place after the previous days rain
which has resulted in patchy ground fog developing across
portions of ENC. Expect fog to continue to expand and
potentially become thick at times with visibilities of less than
a mile possible with the greatest threat coming around sunrise.
Biggest challenge will be how widespread this fog gets, but
current thinking is that areas along and east of Hwy 17 have the
greatest chance at seeing dense fog.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The aviation forecast overnight remains challenging, and
features low confidence. Based on satellite and webcams, the FG
being reported at times around ENC appears to be of the shallow
variety. However, with good radiational cooling conditions, the
potential of a more widespread, and impactful FG, still exists.
However, it`s unclear when, or if, this will develop. For now,
this uncertainty is reflected via TEMPO groups. If observations,
satellite, and webcams begin to show evidence of a more
impactful FG risk, the TAFs will be updated as appropriate. Stay
tuned for amendments through the night. Any BR/FG should mix
out by 13 or 14z Sunday morning, with VFR conditions then
expected to prevail into Sunday afternoon. Late in the afternoon
and into the evening hours, a cold front will move south
through ENC. This is expected to occur between 20z-03z. The
front will be accompanied by a north to northeast wind shift,
and increasingly gusty winds. There may be just enough lift,
moisture, and instability for a few SHRA to develop along the
front. Should this occur, a quick drop in VIS can be expected. A
band of MVFR/VFR CIGs are expected to accompany the front as
well.

Outlook: Behind Sunday`s front, high pressure will build in
early next week, setting up a cool air wedge across the
Carolinas. This pattern favors widespread sub-VFR conditions
across ENC. Within this pattern, probabilistic guidance shows a
50-70% chance of IFR conditions from Monday night into Tuesday.
Periods of -RA look to accompany the low CIGs as well. Improving
aviation conditions are expected by the middle of next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Light W/NW winds early this morning thanks to a high sitting
over the southeast. Today will have pleasant boating conditions
until the evening when a cold front will drop south across the
area and bring a strong surge of northeasterly winds. After
sunset, wind gusts 25-34 knots will develop across the northern
waters, expand southward through the overnight hours through
Monday. There is potential for infrequent gale force gusts
south of Cape Hatteras behind the front, but confidence is
increasing in primarily sub-34 knot gusts given a slightly
weaker wind gust trend in models. EPS is still giving high gale
force probs (70%) for this region so it can`t be completely
ruled out, but this seems to be the outlier when compared with
other deterministic and ensemble based models. With a favorable
N/NE wind direction and high HREF/REFS probs, have expanded the
SCA to include most remain inland sounds/rivers with the
exception of the Pamlico/Pungo River. RAP is suggesting the
Pamlico/Pungo river area to see the tightest pressure gradient
of the region behind the front, so despite the unfavorable NE
wind direction infrequent gusts up to 25 knots are not out of
the question for a brief period tonight. Seas are expected to
build in response to the strong NE winds, increasing to 5-8 ft
Monday night and 6-9 ft on Monday (highest near the Gulf Stream
waters). Winds will be on their way down Monday night, but seas
will be slow to subside and may not drop below 6 ft until
Tuesday/Tuesday night.

Outlook: After headlines drop on Tuesday, the rest of the week
should have pleasant boating conditions with winds and seas
remaining below 25 knots as winds switch to become more
southerly with high shifting offshore.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST
     Monday for AMZ131-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST
     Tuesday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 PM EST
     Monday for AMZ137.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST
     Tuesday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Wednesday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
     Tuesday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RJ
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...RJ