Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

424
FXUS62 KMHX 171138
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
738 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Little...a dry pattern remains in place through next week with
the only chance of rain occuring Sunday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Near record temperatures possible today and tomorrow.

2) Severe drought conditions and elevated fire concerns persist
through next week, with the only meaningful chance of rain
coming Sunday.

3) Cold front to bring a chance of scattered showers and
thunderstorms Sunday, followed by much cooler conditions early
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Near record temperatures are expected today and
tomorrow thanks to warm southwesterly low-level flow beneath
notably strong ridging aloft. This should equate to highs in the
upper 80s to low 90s each day inland, with 70s to low 80s along
the coast. Please see the CLIMATE section below for additional
information.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Severe drought conditions continue to plague
the entire Southeast U.S., with rainfall amounts since March 1
running about 10-50% of normal. Locally here in ENC, this
equates to rainfall totals running about 2-4" below normal over
that same time period. Almost all of ENC remains in Severe
Drought (D2), with a small part of Martin County in Extreme
Drought (D3). Unusually warm conditions and persistent ridging
aloft will only act to exacerbate drought conditions, with the
only meaningful rainfall coming on Sunday, which only looks to
be about 1/4" or less across the forecast area.

Given the ongoing drought, fire weather will continue to be a
concern until a more substantial rain event occurs. Increasing
winds ahead of, and behind, this weekend`s cold front could be
problematic, especially for any fire starts. A statewide burn
bans remains in effect for all of North Carolina, with
additional fire restrictions at all four national forests in
NC. Please see statements from the Forest Service for additional
information.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Over the weekend, the persistent ridging of
late is forecast to briefly break down long enough to allow a
cold front to move through the Carolinas. There will be just
enough low-level moisture advection ahead of the front to
support a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
However, rainfall amounts do not look impressive, with only
about 1/4" or less of rain. While instability will likely be
modest, deep layer shear of 50-60kt would be supportive of
organized convection, if deep updrafts can form. We`ll continue
to monitor this potential.

Behind the cold front, a substantially cooler airmass will move into
the region, with local highs dropping back down closer to what is
normal for this time of year. This means highs in the 60s and 70s,
with lows dropping back down into the 40s to start the new week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A weak cold front is currently moving east across central NC,
and is accompanied by a broken band of SHRA. There have even
been a few lightning strikes occasionally. Guidance continues to
insist that this activity will stay north of ENC where the
better moisture is focused. In light of this, I`ve continued to
keep SHRA/TSRA out of the TAFs this morning. As the front moves
through, there will be a gradual northwesterly wind shift.
Significant winds are not expected to accompany the wind shift.
Other than the wind shift, a SCT to BKN mid-level cloud deck is
forecast to accompany the front. Behind the front, light and
variable winds are expected by sunset. The combination of light
winds and mostly clear skies may support occasional reductions
to VIS due to MIFG. At this time, impactful FG is not
anticipated.

Outlook: A period of low stratus clouds may develop offshore
and advect inland Saturday night into Sunday morning with a risk
of sub- VFR CIGs. A cold front will then move through ENC
between 13z-18z on Sunday with a chance of SHRA, TSRA, and sub-
VFR CIGs. A period of gusty winds is expected as well,
especially along and behind the front. During this time, wind
gusts as high as 20-25kt are expected. Lighter winds return by
early next week as high pressure builds back into the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Frequent gusts of 25-30kt will continue across portions of the
Pamlico Sound and the coastal waters south of Cape Hatteras for
several more hours this morning before the pressure gradient
eases. A period of fair winds will follow through Saturday night
before winds increase again ahead of a cold front, with Small
Craft conditions likely for much of the coastal waters and some
of the inland waters.

Winds will continue to be out of the SW at 15-20 kt with gusts
to 25 kt through later this morning. A weak front will move into
the area this afternoon, with winds becoming SW 5-10 kts south
of Cape Hatteras, and light and variable to the north. Southerly
flow will redevelop by Saturday morning, and increase to S 10-20
kts in the afternoon. Seas will generally be 3-5 ft until this
afternoon, and then subside to 2-4 ft.

Outlook: Southwest winds will increase again late Saturday night
ahead of a cold front. Small craft conditions are likely ahead
of the front across the coastal waters, and then as the front
passes, winds will veer to the N and increase to 20-25 kt with
gusts to 25-30 kt Sunday night with the potential for some Gale
force gusts. Seas are expected to build to 5-7 ft in response,
peaking late Sunday/early Monday. Scattered thunderstorms may
occur with the front as well.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for 4/17 (Friday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        91/1976   (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   83/2012   (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      92/1972   (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   82/1976   (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         91/1972   (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    91/2006   (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 4/18 (Saturday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        90/2002   (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   82/1995   (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      93/2002   (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   85/1976   (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         92/2002   (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    92/1976   (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 4/19 (Sunday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        91/1985   (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   81/1985   (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      92/1985   (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   82/1976   (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         96/1917   (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    91/1985   (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ152-
     154-156.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SGK/OJC
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...SGK/RM