Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

459
FXUS62 KMHX 050700
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
300 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Lowered max temps but increased pops and dewpoints slightly for
the beginning of the week.

Aviation discussion updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Oppressive heat and humidity continues into the beginning of
the work week.

2) A more active pattern takes shape, especially Monday and
Tuesday, where showers and storms are expected each day.

3) Another round of dangerous heat and humidity may build late
week into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Today`s fcst calls for lower Max temps by
several degrees compared to yesterday`s records, and thus
apparent t`s will drop a few degrees as TD`s remain the same.
This will bring marginal heat adv criteria with vals around 105
for inland areas of ENC. No changes to current heat headlines.

Have continued to blend NBM with ECS/MAV/MET guide which is
closer to reality as NBM continues several degrees too high
with MaxTs.

For tonight, increasing moisture with rising TD`s will make for
a very oppressive overnight with min T`s around the 80th% per
latest EFI. Lows range from the mid/upr 70s interior to low 80s
coast.

Monday, temps cont to drop a few degrees again, with highs
mainly in the low 90s inland to upper 80s coast. However, with
the aforementioned higher TD`s in place, heat indices may
actually be a few degrees higher than Sunday`s readings.
Contemplated extending the heat advisory through the Sunday
night into the Monday afternoon period, though held off as
convective initiation may occur by as early as noon Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Return to a pattern of increased shower and
tstorms chances Mon into Tue, possibly into Wed as well. A
series of shortwaves, inland troughing, and a very slow moving
backdoor front will converge to produce higher than climo
coverage of showers and storms each afternoon to early evening,
and pops cont in the 50-70% range, with much needed rain across
a good portion of ENC expected. No severe expected, as wind
shear will be very low. With any summer storm, cannot rule out
some wet microbursts as PW`s will be quite high, in the 2.25"
range. Another round of decent covg of afternoon showers/storms
possible Wed as the aforementioned boundaries may still be in
place.

Beyond mid week, pops return back to climo (20-40%) as more
typical seabreeze showers/storms return. Hts/thicknesses slowly
build in the process as ridging begins to build once again, with
heat indices 100-105 in the forecast.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Aforementioned ridging builds further towards
the end of next week into the weekend, as ensemble mean heights
rise back to above normal, and forecast temps reach the mid to
possibly upper 90s, pushing heat indices to potentially AoA
105 deg again.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Select HiRes guidance shows IFR or lower stratus developing
offshore with moisture trapped underneath the nocturnal
inversion and pushing ashore with the light onshore flow through
early morning, though there is little consensus on how far it
will push inland. Have shown this stratus potential with FEW
and/or SCT stratus prevailing groups and included TEMPO groups
for the terminals with the best chance (still not high enough
confidence to include in prevailing group) of seeing subMVFR
flight cats. In addition to this, there is potential for patchy
fog to develop over OAJ where winds will be lighter. Have
included the fog potential in OAJ`s tempo group. Should stratus
develop, it will scour out quickly Sun morning leading to a VFR
day with some patchy diurnal cu. Have added a tempo group for
several hours as the afternoon through early evening sea breeze
pushes through, with gusts approaching 20 just behind the sea
breeze passage.

Outlook (Mon through Thurs): Upper ridge breaks down Monday
with shortwave energy bringing good chances for showers and
thunderstorms and sub-VFR conditions Mon into Tue. Beyond mid
week, more typical iso to widely sct activity expected as
ridging rebuilds into ENC.

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds generally 5-15 kt will cont today, with the
lightest winds in the morning, inc in the afternoon to evening
as thermal gradient tightens, but gusts generally remain at or
below 20 kt. Seas cont around 2-3 ft with up to 4 ft possible
across the outer zones.

Outlook (Mon through Wed): Bermuda high pulls offshore into
Monday with a front slowly dropping south across the Mid-
Atlantic serving to tighten gradient a bit and expect winds to
increase to around 15-20 kt and seas building to 3-5 ft.
Guidance forecasting gusts around 25 kt for Mon night esp
Pamlico sounds and adjacent nearshore waters, so will have to
watch for potential future SCA issuance for a time. The gradient
relaxes Tue morning with winds returning to 5-15 kt. Weakening
front moves into the waters on Wed, though as is typical in
July, the front appears to wash out, with any nern flow behind
it short lived with return flow developing as early as Wed
evening.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High temps for 7/5 (Sunday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        99/1990  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   92/2018  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville     100/2002  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   93/2020  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston        104/1902  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    97/1990  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TL/CEB
AVIATION...TL/RCF
MARINE...TL/CEB