Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

213
FXUS62 KMHX 082331
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
731 PM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation forecast discussion updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Gradual warming through the rest of the week, peaking on
Thursday.

2) More unsettled pattern expected Friday through the weekend as
front stalls near the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Latest surface analysis shows surface high
slowly migrating off the mid-Atlantic coast this afternoon as
broad mid-level ridging continues to dominate over the southern
plains and southeastern CONUS. After the seemingly unrelenting
heat and humidity of the past few weeks, today`s weather stands
in stark contrast with highs in the low 80s and Tds dipping
into the mid to upper 50s.

As the high moves offshore, southerly to southwesterly flow will
resume across the Carolinas bringing a gradual return of temps
into the 90s as well as a jump in humidity with Tds gradually
working back into the 70s. Mid-level subsidence aloft will keep
precipitation chances very subdued at least into tomorrow
despite the uptick in instability, although cannot completely
rule out an isolated shower or two along typical sound and sea
breeze convergence zones. Shortwave approaches from the central
plains on Thursday, weakening the ridge and aiding in a slightly
more favorable environment for isolated to widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Friday the high continues to shift offshore and
a front sweeps south through the Mid-Atlantic region. Ahead of
this front, continuous warm, moist advection in southerly flow
will help build PWATs to near 2". This will bring scattered to
numerous sea breeze showers/tstorms back in the forecast.
Meanwhile, despite the high shifting offshore, some residual
ridging should slow down the progression of the front as it
moves south. Where the front ends up stalling remains a point of
uncertainty in the forecast with a handful of guidance now
showing the front getting hung up right across the middle of
eastern NC. Wherever the boundary sets up, along it training
showers/thunderstorms are possible, and a narrow swath of deep
layer shear right along the front would bring both a low end
hydro and severe threat. The extent of the hydro and severe
threat are dependent on the frontal location and will continue
to be monitored. As of this afternoon, hydrologic concerns
remain the primary hazard but a low-end severe risk remains in
the cards.

The front lifts back north Saturday into Sunday as a shortwave
moves through the region. This shortwave will bring slightly
better chances for showers and thunderstorms this weekend.
Shear doesn`t look to be impressive, but ample moisture will
promote a marginal hydro threat. There is some uncertainty with
how much instability is in play Saturday, as it is dependent on
cloud cover and associated surface heating. In a low-end CAPE
outcome, (500-1000J/kg) we would have long skinny CAPEs that
suggest just a hydro threat and less frequent lightning.
Meanwhile a high- end CAPE outcome (2000-4000 J/kg) would bring
more pulse- like thunderstorms capable of producing some gusty
winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall rates. Regardless
of how Saturday plays out, there is higher confidence on a low-
CAPE outcome Sunday. While heavy showers and some thunderstorms
are possible Sunday with the shortwave, the severe threat
appears to be more muted.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
No real changes in forecast thinking as VFR conditions continue
to prevail across ENC this evening. High pressure is currently
centered to the northeast just off the NC/VA coast as of this
update and should continue to push offshore tonight. Expecting
a primarily VFR TAF through Wed with one caveat for this morning
after about 06Z. With clear skies and light to calm winds, good
radiational cooling is once again expected tonight across ENC
which could allow for some patchy ground fog to develop
especially across areas west of EWN. Slightly higher
probabilities for at least MVFR vis restrictions are forecast
west of EWN, but remain low (no higher than 20-30%). One thing
working against patchy ground fog development, is dry air across
the region which could limit the fog threat. For now have
capped any fog mention to 5SM at all TAF sites after 06Z to
about 12Z with VFR conditions then returning to ENC afterwards
through the rest of the day Wed. Even if fog does develop it is
not expected to impact operations. Tomorrow, winds veer south to
southwest as high moves further offshore. Cannot completely
rule out an isolated shower or storm along area sea and sound
breezes.

NOTE: AMD NOT SKED has been appended to the EWN TAFs as the
site is not transmitting through normal channels. The site is
still reporting via telephone so it will be monitored, but not
as frequently as when it is completely operational. The next
closest ASOS is at Cherry Point (KNKT).

Outlook (Thursday through Sunday): Primarily VFR conditions are
expected to continue into Thursday but with an uptick in shower
and thunderstorm coverage. A front is expected to approach the
region Friday and Saturday bringing a chance of showers and
thunderstorms with periods of sub-VFR conditions possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Improving marine conditions observed across area waters as east
to northeast winds ease to 10 to 15 knots and seas down to 3-5
feet with periods of 8-11 seconds. Improving conditions expected
through tonight and into tomorrow as high pressure moves
offshore and winds subside, eventually veering south to
southwesterly Wednesday into Thursday.

Outlook (Wed through Sat): SW winds expected to be around 10-20
kt Thu with seas building 2-4 ft as a front approaches the
area. Winds have trended up slightly ahead of the front Thursday
afternoon into evening, and there is a slight chance (20%) of
SCA conditions across northern waters and sounds.

A coastal trough may also set up Thursday night into Friday,
bringing increased tstorm chances along the Gulf Stream. The
front is forecast to stall to our north, but with the proximity
of the front and additional shortwaves moving through this
weekend, we are expecting a more unsettled pattern Friday-
Sunday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196-
     203>205.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MS/RJ
AVIATION...MS/RCF
MARINE...MS/RJ