Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

318
FXUS62 KMHX 240110
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
810 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Winds will gradually diminish overnight and Tuesday, along with
the minor lingering coastal flood threat.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rapidly deepening low pressure will continue to lift NE this
afternoon and tonight. Cool and breezy conditions persist. Minor
coastal flood concerns persist along the Outer Banks.

2) Next front approaches the region late Thursday into Friday

Marine...SCAs continue for the Pamlico sound and coastal waters
with breezy NW winds and elevated seas. Gusty SW winds develop
mid week ahead of approaching front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Complex but deep mid-level trough continues to
swirl over the eastern CONUS with low pressure lifting along
the New England coast. Stratocu continues to stream in from the
north around the base of the trough. Could see some sprinkles
the next few hours across the NE forecast area with radar
showing very light returns. Another cold night, with lows
falling into the mid/upper 20s inland and near 30 for the
beaches. Will continue CF Adv for the Outer Banks, mainly now
for isolated oceanside issues with seas now 8-11 ft/11-13 sec.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The next rainmaker for our area arrives late
mid to late week as another cold front pushes across the
eastern CONUS while weak low pressure lifts across the Mid-
Atlantic. Guidance is beginning to converge on timing, now
favoring Thursday night into Friday. Precipitation will be all
liquid with temps well into the 60s, with some limited thunder
potential confined to near the Gulf Stream. Probabilities of
seeing over a quarter inch of rain with this system are moderate
(60-70%), and low to moderate (30-40%) for a half inch. Given
the consistent under-performance of precipitation as of late
with ongoing drought conditions, these odds may be generous.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Sct-bkn
low to mid clouds AOA 6k ft will dissipate this evening as a
drier airmass builds into the region. NW to W winds across rtes
will mainly be below 10 kt but could see an occasional gust to
around 15 kt Tuesday.

Outlook: VFR persists through midweek. Frontal passage anticipated
late Thursday into Friday, bringing another round of precip, wind
shifts, and sub VFR flight conditions potential.

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions gradually improving across the waters tonight and
Tuesday. Latest obs show NW winds 10-20 kt gusting 25-30 kt and
seas 6-10 ft north of Ocracoke and 3-6 ft south. Have allowed
the northern sounds expire at 8 pm but SCAs continue for the
Pamlico Sound and coastal waters tonight. Low pressure will
continue to lift NE away from the area tonight as high pressure
builds in from the WSW. NW winds will continue around 10-20 kt
with higher gusts over the Pamlico Sound and coastal waters
overnight and early Tue morning, diminishing to 10-15 kt Tue
afternoon.

Outlook: Offshore waters likely to remain poor through late
week as southwesterly winds increase ahead of an approaching
cold front forecast to cross late this week into the weekend.
Gale force winds possible along the Gulf Stream Wed, with seas
building to 5-10 ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for NCZ203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ150-152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CQD/MS
AVIATION...SK
MARINE...CQD