Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

929
FXUS62 KMHX 262035
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
335 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Gale Warning has been dropped and Replaces with SCA.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Overcast skies with rain ongoing and extending into tonight.

2) Growing signal for a fast moving low traversing the eastern
CONUS early next week bringing a risk of brief rainfall.

Aviation...Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions are expected tonight
through Friday.

Marine...SCA conditions expected today into tomorrow. Next
period of SCA conditions possible Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...ENC remains in steady southwesterly flow this
afternoon with persistent high pressure offshore and cold front
associated with Arctic Canadian low pressure extending into the
Wern half of the state.

Cold front will approach from the west this evening, crossing
the area tonight into Friday morning. Main slug of
precipitation tonight as main trough axis and surface frontal
boundary make their approach. Some limited thunder potential
will be confined to near the Gulf Stream, but there is a low
risk some convection could graze the Crystal Coast overnight
into Friday morning. Heavier precipitation is favored closer the
VA border, but odds of at least a quarter inch of rain sit
between 80-90% and 50-60% for half an inch, best chances inland.
Rain becomes lighter in the overnight, but at least SChc PoPs
linger through the day FRI as shortwave trough aloft traverses
the FA. Area of weak low pressure travels along the boundary
once it gets to our south, pulling moisture away and ending the
rain threat through the day SAT.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Once the Friday front clears through a few dry
days are expected for the weekend as high pressure extends in
from the north. The next potential system will come through the
area early next week as a quick moving low zips across the
central plains and mid-Atlantic. Precipitation amounts look to
be a bit lower for this system compared to today`s. Enough
spread remains in model guidance on timing that chance PoPs were
maintained this morning.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A warm front will continue to lift north through the area
today, and is forecast to be just north of the area later this
afternoon and early this evening, with the cold front moving
through overnight. Mix of VFR and MVFR conditions across the
terminals this afternoon with sct/numerous showers. Conditions
will grad deteriorate from west to east, and high confidence of
widespread sub-VFR developing. Periods of light to occasionally
moderate rain and patchy fog will continue tonight into Fri,
with IFR/LIFR likely. In the wake of the above-mentioned warm
front, SW winds will continue to gust 20-30 kt this afternoon,
diminishing this evening and becoming NE behind the front.

Outlook: Widespread sub-VFR will likely linger Friday night
into Sat, with periods of rain and drizzle. VFR likely to return
Sat night, though there will be a risk for patchy fog inland
with clearing skies and light winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs show strongest SW winds 15-20G25-30kt over PamSound
where warmest SSTs can be found. Seas 1-4 ft north of Oregon
Inlet and 4-7 ft south. Diamond Buoy has been reporting SSTs in
the low 40s all day and winds there have been under- performing
all day. Have slightly brought the winds down for the coastal
waters, though they are still expected to strengthen this
evening, but we won`t likely see any obs showing Gales. With
that said, some Gale force gusts remain possible over far outer
waters where the Gstream might be, but this is outside of
Diamond. SCAs in place across all coastal waters and PamSound
through overnight tonight.


Outlook: Poor boating conditions likely to persist for offshore
waters into Friday before the front crosses the region. The
front completely moves through Sern waters Friday morning, with
winds becoming NE 10-20 kt late Fri into the weekend. Next
period of SCA likely Mon and Tuesday in increasing northeasterly
flow.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for AMZ152.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for AMZ154-156.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Friday for AMZ158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MS/CEB
AVIATION...CQD
MARINE...MS/CEB