Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

460
FXUS62 KMHX 011038
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
638 AM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Slight chance PoPs maintained along sea and sound breezes for
this afternoon.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Isolated shower or storm possible today along sea and sound
breezes, although activity will be very short lived.

2) High pressure builds in through mid to late week bringing
anomalous heat and humidity across the area

3) Strong cold front to bring relief from the heat this weekend
into early next week, along with a risk of strong thunderstorms

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Similar weather pattern expected today compared
to yesterday, but this time with slightly better moisture as
PWATs climb back to near 2". However, mid-level subsidence will
be increasing as heights rise ahead of approaching ridge. This
will likely quash more widespread activity, but with enough
instability and sufficient lift from sea and sound breezes the
more routine convection may briefly make an appearance this
afternoon (Cedar Island and Stumpy Point cells come to mind).
Any activity that does develop will quickly fall off around
sunset.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Unusually strong mid-level ridge centered over
the central MS River Valley this morning will continue to
gradually build towards the Carolinas and mid-Atlantic into mid
to late week. Underneath the risk, expansive area of anomalously
warm low-level thicknesses will be in place across much of the
southeastern CONUS as 850mb temperatures soar to between 20-25C,
translating to surface highs well into the 90s to potentially
100 degrees. Additionally, persistent southerly surface flow as
high pressure sits off the coast will keep dew points elevated
in the 70s most days and evenings, especially from Wednesday
into Friday.

The combination of the heat and oppressive moisture will make it
feel like 105-110 degrees across a large portion of eastern NC
mid to late week. ECMWF`s EFI continues to show a strong signal
for anomalous highs for the period and even stronger for warm
overnight lows, boosting confidence to this heat wave`s impact.
The NWS experimental Heat Risk puts a large portion of ENC in
the "Extreme" impact category both Thursday and Friday but
"Major" impacts as early as tomorrow.

Heat headlines will likely be needed starting Wednesday and run
into late week. Heat headlines are very rare for our area in
September - since 2005, the only time they have been issued for
the month by our office was in 2020.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A strong cold front is forecast to move through
the Carolinas on Saturday into Sunday. At minimum, this will
knock down the heat, bringing a refreshing break from the
anomalous heat and humidity. Additionally, guidance show a
decent signal for convection with the front. Synoptically, the
setup appears favorable for strong to severe thunderstorms
depending on the timing of the passage of the front. Machine
learning guidance shows a decent signal for this potential as
well. From a probabilistic standpoint, the risk appears to be
the highest on Saturday.

Behind the front, highs are forecast to drop back down into the
80s, with lows in the 60s. Adding to this will be dewpoints
falling back into the 60s making it feel more comfortable.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Lower visibilities this morning are confined close to the
immediate Crystal Coast where we have seen some drops to VLIFR
at OAJ and also briefly at ISO. Conditions are gradually
improving this hour and expect all terminals to be back at VFR
by 12z. Mostly dry conditions are expected today. Some spotty
convection is possible along sea and sound breezes but
probability of direct impact to terminals is less than 10%.

NOTE: AMD NOT SKED has been appended to the EWN TAFs as the
site is not transmitting through normal channels. The site is
still reporting via telephone so it will be monitored, but not
as frequently as when it is completely operational. The next
closest ASOS is at Cherry Point (KNKT).

Outlook: Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the end of
the week along with a reduced risk of TSRA. Occasional sub-VFR
conditions may occur during the early morning hours in BR/MIFG
each day.

&&

.MARINE...
Good boating conditions are ongoing at this time with winds
around 5- 10kt and seas of 1-2ft. This afternoon, a
strengthening thermal gradient should lead to southwesterly
winds building to 10- 15kt, with seas building to 2-3ft.

The risk of thunderstorms looks very low (<10% chance) through
this afternoon for most waters. The exceptions are scattered
tstorms across the far outer central and southern waters along
the Gulf Stream, and isolated, weak, short lived showers/tstorms
along the sea breeze capable of reaching inland rivers.

Outlook: Generally good boating conditions are expected through
Friday. It will be breezy each afternoon and evening with the
diurnal max of the thermal gradient, and some waters may come
close to 25kt at times, especially Thursday and Friday. Over the
weekend, a strong cold front is forecast to move through with a
chance of thunderstorms and winds flipping around to
northeasterly.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures for 09/02 (Wednesday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern         96/2014  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    91/2018  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      101/1932  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    91/1998  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston          98/1993  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     95/1998  (NCA ASOS)

Record High Temperatures for 09/03 (Thursday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern         95/2020  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    91/2018  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      101/1921  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    93/1959  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston          98/1980  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     96/2020  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RM/MS
AVIATION...MS
MARINE...RM/MS