Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

301
FXUS62 KMHX 021939
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
239 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Climate Section has been added for the well-above average
temperatures expected later this week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Light rain possible today and tonight with the highest
chances across northern NC (40-60%). Light rain may linger
along the Outer Banks tomorrow morning (15-25%).

3) Well above normal conditions return midweek through this
weekend with high pressure ridging offshore.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...The CAD wedge is keeping us cool and overcast with
breezy northeast winds. Temps likely won`t make it out of the
50s today for most of the area (40s Northern Outer Banks). With
a few shortwaves moving through aloft and a developing coastal
trough, chances for light rain will increase this afternoon and
peak late tonight with greatest chances across northern NC
(40-60%). A few light showers (15-25%) may linger into tomorrow
along the Outer Banks as a weak surface low develops along the
offshore boundary and it pivots closer to shore. The wedge will
break down tomorrow as the surface high to our northeast moves
farther out to sea and an upper ridge starts to creep in from
the west. Cloud cover will decrease and temps will rebound into
the mid/upper 60s inland and mid 50s/low 60s at the beaches.

KEY MESSAGE 2...An anomalously strong ridge will set up over
the southeast US later this week. This will bring quite the
pattern change to ENC with near record temperatures possible for
some inland zones Thursday-Saturday (see Climate Section
below). Highs are forecast to reach the upper 70s/low 80s inland
and upper 60s/low 70s along the coast. The immediate coast will
remain cooler due to very cold ocean/sound temperatures. Given
the sharp temperature contrast between the cold waters and warm
land, there`s potential for a few isolated showers to develop
along any river/sound/sea breezes in the afternoons.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Much of the CWA at overcast MVFR skies through the entire day
today with cigs 1.5 to 2.5 k ft. Tonight, a shortwave moves
into the mid- atlantic and brings lower ceilings and spotty
light rain, with all sites forecasted to reach IFR ceilings,
with KEWN and KOAJ first to drop to IFR, then interior sites
KPGV and KISO. Cigs should slowly lift late morning into early
afternoon Tuesday.

Tuesday night through Saturday: Improving aviation conditions
are expected by the middle of next week. As we get into late
week, moist southerly flow moves into the region as high sits
offshore. If radiational cooling conditions occur during the
night thanks to clear skies and calm winds, fog potential will
be worth monitoring.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all coastal waters and
the Pamlico Sound.

Latest obs show NE winds at 15-25 kt with gusts to 20-30 kt and
5-7 ft seas. Winds and seas will start to relax tonight with
conditions improving to sub-SCA criteria for the Pamlico Sound
and coastal waters south of Ocracoke Inlet. Winds will weaken
tonight to around 10-25 kts as a coastal trough offshore pivots
into the nearshore waters. Winds will be 10-15 kts tomorrow but
wind direction will vary from NE to SE depending on the
location of the trough. Lingering elevated seas will keep the
SCAs in place for the coastal waters north of Oregon Inlet
through late tomorrow night with the central waters potentially
hanging on to 6 ft seas through most of Wednesday.

Outlook: Pleasant boating conditions are expected for the rest
of the week and into this weekend. Winds generally be 10-20 kts
out of the S/SW as high pressure remains offshore.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for 03/05 (Thursday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern      84/2015  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 74/1976  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville    86/1923  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 76/2023  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston       87/1976  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville  83/1985  (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 03/06 (Friday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern      85/1961  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 76/1992  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville    84/1961  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 74/1992  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston       85/1976  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville  82/1961  (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 03/07 (Saturday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern      89/1974  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 74/2022  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville    84/1961  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 74/1991  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston       86/1908  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville  85/1974  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...OJC
AVIATION...TL
MARINE...OJC