Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

067
FXUS62 KMHX 310658
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
258 AM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Areas of fog and low stratus early this morning give way to
much drier conditions this afternoon, save for an isolated sea
breeze shower or thunderstorm.

2) High pressure builds in through mid week bringing hot and
humid conditions across the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Skies gradually clearing this morning as mid-
level ridge centered over the southern plains builds eastward,
shunting deeper moisture offshore. At the surface, weak high
pressure is now in control with weekend front out of the
picture, keeping winds light. With little change in moisture
from yesterday, expecting another round of fog and low stratus
especially west of Highway 17. Some periods of locally dense fog
are possible early this AM.

With ridge shifting overhead increasing mid-level subsidence,
the risk of more widespread convection will largely be quashed.
Sea and sound breeze activity today may spark a short lived
shower or storm in the afternoon, but otherwise area will remain
dry as highs climb back into the 90s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Ridging aloft builds further early this week
and peaks over the area Wednesday and Thursday with H85 temps
around 21-22C leading to temps well in the 90s most areas away
from the immediate coast. Heat headlines may be needed
Wednesday, Thursday, and possibly lingering into Friday with
forecast heat indices climbing above 105 each day, especially
inland areas and along the coast south of US70. Some locations
may approach record high temperature values mid week and have
included the current record values in the CLIMATE section below.

Subsidence aloft will limit thunderstorm activity for much of
the week with only isolated afternoon convection along the sea
breeze at best, but most areas are expected to remain dry
through Thursday. The ridge begins to retreat westward late in
the week which NW flow developing aloft bringing the potential
for MCV`s diving from the Mid-West across the area, possibly as
early as Thursday night but more likely late Friday into the
weekend. Still plenty of details to sort out, but AI NWP
guidance suggests the pattern during this time will be at least
marginally favorable for strong to severe storms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
# --- AMD NOT SKED has been appended to EWN TAFs as the site is
not transmitting through normal channels. The site is still
reporting via telephone so it will be monitored, but not as
frequently as when it is completely operational. The next
closest ASOS is at Cherry Point (KNKT). --- #

Starting to see some fog and low stratus gradually develop
across central and eastern NC terminals early this morning as
skies clear under weak high pressure and calm winds. All areas
vulnerable to IFR to LIFR conditions but highest probability
remains for terminals west of MRH-EWN-OCW. Some periods of VLIFR
are possible around dawn with visibilities as low as a half
mile.

Expect conditions to improve to pred VFR by 13-14z. With ridge
building overhead expect far more isolated shower and
thunderstorm coverage, largely confined to sea and sound
breezes. Only TAF terminal that may be threatened by this is
OAJ, but confidence is too low to include in forecast at this
time.

Outlook: Benign flying conditions expected for the work week as
ridge remains in control aloft. Shower and thunderstorm activity
will be limited to none until late week when another front
approaches area terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Very quiet boating conditions in place early this morning as
weak high pressure is in control. Winds are variable at around 5
kt with seas at around 2 feet. Expect very little change to this
through the morning hours with a uptick in winds to 5-10 kt this
afternoon as sea and sound breezes become dominant.

Outlook: Benign boating conditions extend into the week as high
pressure remains in control. Although SCA conditions are not
expected, with building heat inland thermal gradient winds out
of the SW will return starting mid- week each afternoon and
evening at 10-15 kt with a few gusts up to 20-25 kt possible.
Another front approaches waters next weekend with a low risk of
SCA conditions but an uptick in shower and thunderstorm
coverage.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures for 09/02 (Wednesday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern         96/2014  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    91/2018  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      101/1932  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    91/1998  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston          98/1993  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     95/1998  (NCA ASOS)

Record High Temperatures for 09/03 (Thursday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern         95/2020  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    91/2018  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      101/1921  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    93/1959  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston          98/1980  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     96/2020  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SK/MS
AVIATION...MS
MARINE...SK/MS