Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

560
FXUS62 KMHX 010708
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
308 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Decreased rain chances a bit Sunday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Seasonable and mostly dry through Saturday.

2) Warm front/coastal trough moves through Sunday morning, with
above average rain chances Sunday into midweek.

Marine: SCA conditions likely to develop Sunday into Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1..High pressure has shifted offshore, with
southerly outherly onshore flow beginning in earnest today.
Atmospheric profile to gradually moisten today, although we
should still be too dry aloft for any convection to form along
the sea breeze. While rain chances are still below 15% today,
there should be more cloud cover along and ahead of the sea
breeze coinciding with peak heating. Otherwise seasonable temps
forecast today as highs reach the upper 80s to near 90s inland,
and mid 80s along the coast.

KEY MESSAGE 2...ENC once again enters into a period of
unsettled weather starting on Sunday. An upper trough will be
deepening over the Ohio Valley Sun morning as it moves towards
the Eastern Seaboard, while at the surface an associated closed
low is expected to traverse the Great Lakes region. As these
features move east, they will encounter the Bermuda high which
is expected to stall this upper trough, surface low, and its
associated fronts before they reach the Eastern Seaboard. While
the upper trough stalls, embedded shortwaves rounding the base
of the trough are forecast to advect into the Carolinas Sun
through at least Mon/Tue. These features, in addition to the sea
breeze each afternoon/evening, will be the main forcing present
for a notable increase in precip chances.

There will be two areas of focus for shower and thunderstorm
activity on Sunday. The first will be Sun morning along and behind a
N`ward moving warm front/coastal trough with much of the activity
occuring near and east of Hwy 17. We should still be too dry
aloft inland as the boundary moves through, so thunder chances
remain low inland Sunday morning. Proximity to the gulf stream
could allow isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to
reach coastal communities south of Oregon Inlet. The second will
be in the afternoon/evening with shower and thunderstorm
activity coming in from the west associated with the stalled
upper trough. Cloud cover will play a big role in how high
instability can truly get, but with the dewpoints rising there
should be enough instability entering the region for 1000-2000
J/kg of MLCAPE Sunday. While shear is not too impressive with
the unidirectional SE flow, the combination of long, skinny
CAPEs, PWATs over 2", and slow storm motions could result in
heavy rainfall rates and wet microbursts where storms develop.
The best coverage is expected to be to our west closer to I-95,
with more isolated to scattered coverage hinted at by CAMs along
our coastal plain. As a result, have trended down a tad with
PoPs Sunday PM with this update. Further reductions to PoPs may
be necessitated with future updates if this trend holds.

Monday the trough is still stalled to our west and gradually
weakens. This reduces the potential for height falls over the
region despite the trough creeping a bit closer. Still, we
should see some weak embedded shortwaves moving through aloft.
Slightly better forcing, paired with another day of long skinny
CAPEs and PWATs north of 2" brings higher precip chances
compared to Sunday with heavy rainfall rates and a low end wet
microburst threat and slow storm motion vectors.  All this
brings flash flooding concerns to mind, especially with how much
rain has been observed in many locations in the past 1-2 weeks.
We are currently in a Marginal (level 1/5) Excessive Rain
Outlook for Sunday. What prevents it from being higher is likely
the uncertainty on instability with antecedent cloud cover and
the lack of substantial ground-level forcing. With high temps
forecast to only be in the low to mid 80s Monday, the sea
breeze may be weak in nature.

Beyond Monday, the trough/low is still expected to linger to our
west until eventually it gets picked up and shifted to our north by
another trough moving through the Great Lakes region. As a result,
daily elevated precip chances continue through mid-week with a low
end risk for flash flooding.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Pred VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with mainly
diurnal Cu through peak heating. Another morning with calm
winds and clear skies allowing for good radiational cooling but
HREF and REFS probs for vsbys less than 5SM continue to show
less than 15 percent during the pre-dawn hours. Given there
hasn`t been fog the past couple of nights it likely will not
materialize. S to SW winds will be a bit stronger this
afternoon with gusts around 15-20 kt possible. Periods of MVFR
may develop early Sunday morning as a warm front/coastal trough
moves through the region. Coastal regions could see isolated to
scattered thunderstorms Sunday morning along and behind the
coastal trough.

Outlook (Sunday through Wednesday):Periods of sub-VFR may
develop Sun into early next week as ENC enters into a more
unsettled period of weather with daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms with a stalled upper trough off to the west.
Precip chances and thus the threat for sub- VFR conditions look
to decrease beyond Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
Benign boating conditions continue across our waters today as
latest obs show widespread southerly 5-10 kt winds and 2-3 ft
seas. Winds strengthen to 10-20 knots through tonight, shifting
from SE`rly this evening to S`rly early Sunday morning behind a
coastal trough/warm front. As wind increas, seas build to 3-4 ft
tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms likely starting
early Sunday morning along and behind the front.

Outlook (Sunday through Wed): Southerly winds will strengthen
Sunday to 15-25 kts with gusts up to 25-30 kts ahead of an
approaching front. Seas will also respond building closer to 4-7
ft across the coastal waters bringing an increasing chance of
SCA conditions to much of our waters Sun into Mon. In addition
to this, increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms will
be possible as well starting Sun. Winds/Seas begin to ease later
Mon night into Tue with weak high pressure building overhead
and aforementioned front dissipating to the west.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RCF/RJ
AVIATION...RJ
MARINE...RCF/RJ