Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

070
FXUS62 KMHX 262329
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
729 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Issued SCA for the central/southern waters and Pamlico Sound
beginning Wed afternoon.

Updated Aviation Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) An unsettled pattern persists through Thursday with multiple
opportunities for showers and thunderstorms.

2) Drier and cooler behind a cold front Fri, potentially becoming
more unsettled again this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...ENC remains firmly entrenched in the warm
sector, with front stalled to the north/west and deep moist SSW
flow continuing. The front will remain quasi-stationary through
the middle of the week and should be the primary focus for
convection through Wednesday. Away from the front, convection
should mostly be seabreeze-driven...best chances along the coast
early then shifting inland in the afternoon. The mean storm
motion parallel to the front, plus moderate instability and 2"
PWATs will continue to support a risk of intense rainfall rates
and possible localized flooding. A modest increase in mid-upper
level westerly flow through Wednesday should lead to a bump up
in deep layer shear to 20- 30kt. This suggests an increase in
the potential for storm organization during peak heating. This
combined with moderate instability may support an isolated
severe thunderstorm risk each afternoon and evening, but weak
mid level lapse rates will keep the threat to a minimum. Best
chances will be across the northern forecast area Wed afternoon
and eve. On Thursday, the front is forecast to push through the
area as a shortwave moves off the Mid- Atlantic/New England
Coast. This may offer at least one more day of unsettled
weather, but perhaps with a focus across the southern half of
ENC as opposed to the entire area.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front is forecast to push through the
area late Thu and Thu night, bringing drier and cooler
conditions Fri as N-E flow develops. The front will then begin
to lift back northward this weekend, potentially remaining
stalled just to the south with an area of low pressure passing
offshore, but still lots of uncertainty on how this will evolve.
Proximity of front and strength of the high to the north, may
keep things unsettled over the weekend, with highest pops likely
across the southern portions of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are noted across all of ENC this evening. Some
leftover iso showers and tstms are noted with the closest tstm
in the vicinity of PGV as of this update, but activity is
forecast to diminish in coverage over the next few hours.
Afterwards current forecast suggests the redevelopment of
stratus once again tonight, primarily across the western coastal
plain. Will trend towards persistence with best chances for IFR
at PGV and ISO. Any leftover low stratus Wed morning will
quickly dissipate and VFR conditions are then forecast across
all of ENC later Wed morning into Wed afternoon. Sct showers and
storms expected again Wed afternoon and eve with brief periods
of sub VFR conditions wherever showers and tstms develop.

Outlook (Thursday through Sunday): A cold front will push
through the terminals late Thu and Thu night. Scattered to
numerous showers and storms may bring periods of sub-VFR. Drier
and cooler conditions expected behind the front Friday. Periods
of sub-VFR may return Sat and Sun with sct showers and storms.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs show SW winds 10-20 kt with seas 2-4 ft. Seas remain
elevated in combo of windswell and longer period NE swell from
the northern Atlantic. Moderate SSW winds 10-20 kt will continue
through the period. Could see occasional gusts to 25 kt this
evening, though looks too marginal for SCA at this time.
Gradient will tighten Wed into early Thu as a front approaches
the waters. SW winds will increase to 15-25 kt Wed afternoon
with seas then building to 4-7 ft. Issued SCA for the
central/southern waters and the Pamlico Sound.

Outlook: Unsettled weather will continue through Thursday with
shower and thunderstorms chances persisting. The front will push
south of the waters late Thu and Thu night, with light to
moderate N-E flow developing behind it.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Wednesday to 6 AM EDT Thursday
     for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Wednesday to 10 AM EDT Thursday
     for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Wednesday to 10 AM EDT Thursday
     for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CQD/SK
AVIATION...CQD/RCF
MARINE...CQD/SK