Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

087
FXUS62 KMHX 071125
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
725 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
SPC has added a Marginal (level 1/5) Risk of Severe
Thunderstorms across the Sern half of the forecast area for
today and tonight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A cold front will move through today bringing gusty winds
with widespread showers (80-90%), along with a slight chance
(20%) of embedded thunderstorms. Strongest storms have low end
chance of producing marginally severe wind gusts.

2) High pressure will build in tomorrow and bring a brief round
of dry conditions.

3) Another round of unsettled weather for this weekend into
early next week as several low pressure systems and fronts move
through the region bringing scattered to numerous (40-70%)
coverage of showers, along with slight chance to chance
(20-30%) of thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A positively tilted upper-level trough will
move across the Midwest and Great Lakes region today. At the
surface, a slow moving cold front will move into ENC, pushing
offshore this evening. Subtle timing differences still exist in
guidance, but the window has narrowed significantly relative to
this time yesterday.

Plentiful moisture along with mid to upper level lift is in
place for widespread beneficial showers. There is a low, but
non- zero, chance for some stronger storms to develop, but lapse
rates are quite weak due to the widespread morning clouds and
showers, and thus instability is in the form of long skinny
CAPEs, which would yield some gusty winds even if no lightning
is present. Continued capping of thunder chances at SChc over
land areas. Current QPF for 12Z today-6Z FRI still ranges from
0.25-1" with highest totals over NWern half of the FA. In
addition to showers and storms, today will bring gusty SW winds
with gusts to 20-25 mph inland and 25-30 mph along the coast.
Best chance for strong gusts outside of showers/storms is
immediately ahead of the front. Convective showers and storms
with greater vertical development, if some sunshine is realized,
may mix down some of the stronger winds aloft, making strong
convective wind gusts the greatest threat for the area. Greatest
chance of this occuring lies over the Sern half of the FA when
FROPA coincides with peak heating. Typically more excitable
guidance shows MUCAPE values reaching ~1kJ/kg in a small pocket
just ahead of the front, but model consensus is generally on the
order of 500-700J/kg.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Surface high pressure will briefly build in
tomorrow leading to a mild, mostly dry day with MaxTs in the
low 70s (60s OBX). The high shifts offshore FRI night ahead of
a shortwave to move through the Carolinas Saturday. This will
lead to warmer, cloudier conditions to start the weekend with
moisture advection ramping up in the Serly flow developing on
the W side of the high.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Rain chances increased again steadily on the
weekend, with the first wave on Sat with sheared mid level
energy swinging through as weak warm front lifts north
northeastward, producing chances for showers, then a better
chance later SUN into MON with likely PoPs ahead of another
front and stronger wave of low pressure that is forecast to
cross the FA. We will monitor this system for a strong to severe
storm threat, as better dynamics are in place, with potentially
more robust instability, which will depend on diurnal timing of
mesoscale features.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Multiple rounds of SHRA will traverse the Carolinas over the
next 12 hours or so thanks to a deep layer of moisture
interacting with a southward-sagging cold front. There is just
enough instability to support a low risk of TSRA (10-30%
chance). The heaviest SHRA will be capable of brief reductions
in VIS to as low as IFR/LIFR. Behind the cold front, winds will
flip around to the northeast. Of note, recent model guidance has
trended slower with the passage of the front, which means south
to southwest winds are likely to last longer than previously
anticipated. Once the front passes, widespread IFR CIGs are
expected to linger well into this evening, and there may be
reduced VIS in BR, especially tonight into early Friday morning.

Outlook: Drier air moving in behind the front should support
improving aviation conditions by Friday. Looking ahead, the
next opportunity for sub VFR conditions looks to be over the
weekend, along with a risk of TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SSW winds in place 10-15G20kt inside with 15-20kt of coastal
waters where choppy seas continue in the 2-5ft@6sec range,
lowest up N. Moderate to gusty SSW winds will continue as a
slow moving cold front approaches and finally crosses through
the day. Front will be slow moving, with the Central and Sern
waters, especially S of Hatt remaining in gusty SWerly flow
most of the day, and thus the SCA will be in effect here,
starting south of Ocracoke at 15Z Thu. Gusts of up to around 30
kt will be common, building seas to 5-7ft coastal waters, 7-9ft
offshore waters with a chance for some gale force gusts
immediately ahead of the front once it starts reaching the
warmer Gulf Stream waters. Showers and storms likely ahead of
the front this afternoon into early evening. Winds turn sharply
N to NNE behind front, with a thump of winds to 25 kt or higher
for a brief period on sound waters adjacent to OBX and Nern
coastal waters, but too brief to warrant issuance of any SCAs.

Outlook (Friday through Monday):
Winds will decrease to 5-15 kt with gusts to 15-20 kt by Friday
morning with good boating conditions returning by the afternoon
as high pressure builds in. The improvement will be short lived
with showers and storms expected again SAT, then again later Sun
into Mon with troughing traveling over regional waters behind
the high pressure sliding further offshore. SCA conditions on
the nearshore waters poss late Sun into early Mon ahead of
strong front, with brief gale gusts poss on the offshore waters.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT
     Friday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TL/CEB
AVIATION...RM/SK
MARINE...TL/CEB