Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

596
FXUS62 KMHX 280812
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
312 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Overcast skies with light rain offshore before a weak low
pushing out to sea can pull moisture away from the area leading
to clearing conditions with warming temps for remainder of
weekend.

2) A fast moving shortwave traversing the eastern CONUS early
next week bringing chances of brief light rainfall.

3) Warming temperatures and daily rain chances mid-late week as
high pressure sets in to our southeast

Aviation...Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions expected to last into
Saturday morning. IFR/LIFR conditions in BR/FG may redevelop
Saturday night.

Marine...Marginal SCA conditions possible over far outer
coastal waters Cape to Cape today. Next period of likely
widespread SCA conditions SUN night into TUE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...The shortwave aloft begins to push offshore this
morning which will aid in the further organization of a weak
low to develop and ride the Gulf Stream slowly NEward through
the day. This low will act to pull clouds and moisture offshore
away from the the area through today and tonight as PWATs drop
from near 1" to around 0.5". The introduction of drier air will
help keep Sunday PM`s cold front passage dry. While some
returns on radar are possible, it would likely be in the form of
virga. Winds briefly become SWerly ahead of Sunday`s front,
allowing MaxTs Sunday to get into the low 70s with sunny skies
and light winds.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The next potential system will come through the
area early next week as a quick moving shortwave zips across
the central plains and mid- Atlantic along a meandering boundary.
Precipitation amounts and coverage looks to be low given the
muted nature of the shortwave paired with the more northward
focus of precip. Some models are showing some mixed precip
possible along the NC/VA border with this shortwave, but we
should be too warm at the lowest levels for this to occur in our
forecast area.

KEY MESSAGE 3...High pressure sits offshore late week allowing
for warm south flow to build into the region. Temps could warm
up to the 80s inland Friday and Saturday, supported by
850-1000mb thicknesses at 1380-1390m. With the contrast of
colder nearshore SSTs and warm land, the sea breeze should
develop Friday and Saturday. While there is no upper level
support, PWATs around 1" and instability building up to 500-1000
J/kg could allow for clouds and some isolated showers to form
along the sea breeze.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Satellite imagery shows a widespread area of low stratus
blanketing the Carolinas at this time. Within this area,
IFR/LIFR CIGs are common, along with MVFR/IFR VIS. A cool and
moist northeasterly flow regime should allow these conditions to
continue into Saturday morning. While drastic fluctuations are
not expected, CIGs may waffle between 300-600ft at times, before
eventually beginning to lift to MVFR and then VFR by Saturday
afternoon. This looks like more of a stratus event as opposed to
a FG event, and widespread LIFR/IFR VIS is not expected. VFR
conditions Saturday afternoon look to transition to an increased
risk of BR/FG development Saturday night thanks to recent
rainfall and good radiational cooling conditions. The latest
guidance shows a 30-50% chance of IFR, or lower, conditions
redeveloping Saturday night.

Outlook: A cold front is forecast to move south through ENC on
Sunday with a notable northerly wind shift. A few SHRA or TSRA
may accompany this front, although not all guidance show this
potential. Behind the front, a weak weather system is forecast
to move through the area early next week, and this system should
provide the next chance for sub-VFR conditions across ENC.

&&

.MARINE...
NEerly winds 10-15G15-20kt with rain lingering along coastal
waters and eastern Pamlico Sound this morning. Seas are also
relatively tame at 3-4 feet. Rain should be moving off later
this morning as the low pressure works NEward up the Gulf Stream
through the day pulling moisture away from the area. Some
patchy sea fog possible this morning as moist conditions and
lighter winds are sitting over cooler waters. NEerly winds will
be near 25 knots over FAR outer waters Cape Hatteras to Cape
Lookout through much of the day Saturday. Would issue SCA if
areal coverage coverage or duration were more sustained, but the
25kt gusts are forecast to bounce in and out of the 20nm zones
through the day. With the near small craft winds for outer
waters, seas are also expected to rise to 4-6 ft near the Gulf
Stream, remaining 2-3 feet closer to the coast. Seas lessen and Nerly
winds weaken to be AoB 10kt Sunday before becoming SWerly ahead
of the next front crossing area waters Sunday night into Monday
morning.

The front moving through Sunday night into Monday morning is
expected to bring a quick shift in winds from SW to NE. While
the SW component should be light (around 10 knots), the NE
component behind the front will be much stronger, gusting
greater than 25 knots. EPS probs of gale force gusts from Cape
Hatteras to Cape Lookout are greater than 80%, although GEFS
shows a very different story with probs of 10%. With this
uncertainty, elected to keep gust magnitudes relatively
unchanged, getting up to the low 30 knots range. Confidence in
small craft conditions for coastal waters and Pamlico Sound late
Sunday through Monday is high, the question is if the inland
rivers get there, and if the gale force gust potential cape to
cape is realized. NWPS tends to struggle in these northerly flow
regimes like what we will see behind the front, so elected to
include WNA waves in the forecast for Sunday night and Monday to
bring waves up faster. Current forecast has 5-9 ft along
coastal waters Monday.

Outlook: High moves offshore late week, allowing for lighter southerly
flow to kick in, bringing daily rain chances and warmer temps.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RJ
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...RJ