Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

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FXUS62 KMHX 161910
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
310 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
General forecast remains the same with extended period of dry
and warm conditions until next FROPA late next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warming and mostly dry conditions will continue through mid
next week. There is a low end potential for record high temps.

2) The next frontal system approaches the area late next week,
with increasing precip chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...High pressure will continue to slide offshore
today, persisting into next week. Once the high becomes
established offshore SAT morning, S`rly flow sets up and allows
for increasing low level thicknesses to overspread the CWA. As a
result, a warming and drying trend is forecast into mid next
week. MaxTs today will climb into the upper 70s for the beaches
and into the low/mid 80s inland. Temps will continue to warm
into mid next week, with highs in the 90s inland and 80s for the
beaches. While we will likely remain below record high temps
this weekend and into early next week, we will be close. These
temps are forecast to bring Minor to Moderate Heat Risks.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The next frontal system approaches the area
late next week, currently forecast to slowly cross the area
later THU into FRI. This FROPA brings the next best chance of
rain that may linger into the weekend with the front potentially
stalling off the coast and a coastal trough setting up behind
it, maybe a weak low pressure system forming along/near the
boundary. Severe threat looks meager at best currently with poor
support aloft and nocturnal timing. Cooler temps expected
behind the front, returning to near climo with a semi cold wedge
setting up to the NW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Primarily VFR conditions are forecast through the period. Mo clear
skies this afternoon with just some mid and high clouds streaming in
from the west. Given the lack of moisture not expecting much diurnal
Cu to develop this afternoon but can`t rule it out. 5-10 kt SW winds
today should become more S`rly at about 10 kts with a few gusts up to
15 kts behind todays seabreeze before easing tonight.

Otherwise, our attention turns to tonight as moistening S`rly low
level flow could bring some low stratus to the area near daybreak on
Sun. Kept similar thinking with FEW/SCT010 across all TAF sites with
this issuance, but a reasonable worst case scenario would be
IFR/LIFR ceilings. Either way, even if low stratus developed it is
forecast to dissipate by mid morning with VFR conditions then
forecast for the rest of Sun.

Outlook (Sunday afternoon through Tuesday): Continued moisture
return in persistent southerly flow may lead to TEMPO periods of low
CIGs/stratus each night into midweek between the late evening hours
into the early morning hours. Otherwise, a daily seabreeze is
expected with occasionally gusty winds. With dry high pres in place,
no convection is expected with chances below 10%. The next chance of
showers or a few storms is Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs show light winds generally 10-15 with some higher
gusts with seas 2-3 ft. Northern sounds showing some stronger
winds where the thermal gradient is tightest and may experience
some 25kt gusts for a couple more hours this afternoon,
subsiding this evening. Winds begin to relax after sunset,
dropping back to 10-15kt through the overnight, allowing seas to
ease back to 2-3ft again.

Outlook (Sunday through Wednesday): Typical summertime pattern
will rinse and repeat the winds forecast with mostly dry and
warming forecast into mid week. Mostly S-SW winds through the
period with high pressure offshore. Light to moderate SSW winds
in the mornings, increasing to 10-20 kt in the afternoon and
evening with stronger thermal gradient and sea/sound breezes.
Croatan, Roanoke, and Albemarle Sounds most likely to see 25kt
gusts in the afternoon and evening, no SCA currently planned for
these sounds despite criteria likely being met briefly. Seas
generally remaining 2-4 ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CEB
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...CEB