Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

722
FXUS62 KMHX 051039
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
639 AM EDT Tue May 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Decreased rain chances on Friday

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Mostly quiet weather with steadily increasing moisture. Sea
breeze worth monitoring on Wednesday.

2) A cold front will move through on Thursday, bringing gusty
winds and scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some
of which could be strong to severe.

3) High pressure will build in Friday and bring a brief round of
dry conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1..High pressure has shifted offshore and SW flow
will continue to advect in moisture. Temps will warm through
Wednesday in response, reaching the low/mid 80s inland and
mid/upper 70s at the beaches.

If we`re able to overcome the dry layer between 700-850 mb,
Wednesday`s seabreeze could produce some isolated showers and
storms, but guidance is not excited about convective potential.
Machine learning guidance shows low severe probs (10% or less),
but decent bulk shear and a LLJ could help produce a few
stronger gusts within any convection that`s able to develop.
Precip chances will continue to increase into the night as a
cold front approaches from the northwest.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A positively tilted upper-level trough will
move across the Midwest on Thursday, becoming neutral to
negatively tilted over the eastern US Thursday night. At the
surface, a cold front will move into ENC late Thursday
afternoon/early evening and push offshore by Thursday night.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through the
day, and there`s a low but non-zero chance for some storms to be
strong to marginally severe. Forcing will be lacking in the
morning, and depending on the coverage of showers and
thunderstorms ahead of the evening front, destabilization may be
dampened. Ample bulk shear will be present throughout the day,
however, and the low that`s expected to form along the front
could produce an area of enhanced lift, but chances for severe
storms remain low at this time (< 10%). Current QPF ranges from
0.5-1" with highest totals west of Highway 17.

In addition to showers and storms, Thursday will bring strong SW
winds with gusts to 20-25 mph inland and 25-35 mph along the
coast.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Surface high pressure will briefly build in on
Friday. This should help keep most of the precipitation
associated with the low along the offshore front south of our
area, but isolated light showers along the immediate coast
can`t be ruled out Friday night as the high moves offshore. As
the aforementioned offshore low moves northeast off the coast of
the Carolinas on Saturday, showers will be possible with
greatest chances near the water.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are forecast over the next 24 hours. High
pressure centered offshore keeps steady SW`rly flow over the
area. Much like yesterday, S to SW winds will increase through
the morning from about 5-10kts to 10-15 kts with gusts to around
20 kt from mid morning through the afternoon before winds ease
tonight. High clouds are currently noted across the region with
yet another round of diurnal Cu forecast for later this morning
into this evening across inland ENC. Ceilings remain around 5
kft so little in the way of impact is expected from this cloud
deck. Otherwise as we get into tonight and Wednesday morning, do
expect increasing high and mid level clouds to overspread ENC
from west to east with the aprroach of a cold front.

Outlook: Our next notable chance at sub-VFR conditions looks to be
around Wednesday night/Thursday with the approach of a low pressure
system and its associated fronts. This is forecast to bring showers
and thunderstorms to ENC and thus potential for reduced ceilings and
visibilities.&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs show SW winds at 10-20 kt and seas at 2-4 ft. These
conditions will persist through tonight.

Outlook: SW winds will increase to 20-25 kt with gusts to 25-30
kt Wednesday night. These conditions will persist until Thursday
evening when prefrontal SW winds will increase to 20-30 kt with
gusts to 25-35 kt. Winds will veer to the NW Thursday night
behind the front with seas peaking at 5-9 ft. Winds will
decrease to 15-20 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt by Friday morning
with good boating conditions returning by the afternoon.

Thunderstorms, some of which could produce strong gusts, will be
possible on Thursday as well.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...OJC
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...OJC