Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

871
FXUS62 KMHX 261207
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
707 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the area tonight. This front will
be followed up by a reinforcing cold front late Thursday. High
pressure then builds in over the weekend. High pressure shifts
offshore early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Wednesday...

Key Messages

 - One more day of well above normal temperatures today

 - Turning colder tonight

 - Cold and dry conditions expected over Thanksgiving

A warm front will continue to lift quickly north early this
morning, pushing well north of the area by this afternoon.
Meanwhile, a cold front (currently moving through the Ohio
Valley), will be approaching the area by early this evening.
Despite widespread cloudcover, continued southerly flow and
building low-level thicknesses will support one more day of
above to well above normal highs. Where breaks in the clouds
occur, highs could near 80 degrees for some inland locations.
For Crystal Coast beaches, warm air advecting over the cooler
shelf waters may lead to a brief period of patchy, dense fog
this morning before stronger southerly winds develop. Those
cooler shelf waters may also temper highs in that area some as
well. Still above normal, but not as warm as further inland.

During the daytime hours today, it still looks like an overall
lack of appreciable forcing should limit the risk of deep
convection, and severe weather is not anticipated. It may even
be tough to get much in the way of showers to develop. The
forecast will continue to reflect a chance of showers and
thunderstorms, but it appears that rainfall amounts will be
limited.

The above-mentionedcold front will move through tonight
(10pm-1am timeframe), and will usher in much drier and colder
air. Any shower or thunderstorm risk will quickly end from west
to east in the wake of the front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Wednesday...

A dry, cold airmass will settle into the Carolinas over the
Thanksgiving holiday. Highs are expected to top out in the 40s
and 50s Thursday and Friday, which is a solid 10-20 degrees
below normal for late November. Overnight lows are expected to
dip into the 20s and 30s. The coldest period of this airmass is
expected to be Friday and Friday night. Of note, with high
pressure overhead Friday night, excellent radiational cooling
conditions may allow some inland areas of the coastal plain to
fall into the upper teens.

Please see the Fire Weather section below for additional
information on the dry and breezy conditions expected on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 AM Wednesday...

Key Messages

 - Monitoring the potential for meaningful rainfall next week

The cold airmass from Thanksgiving is expected to begin to
moderate over the weekend as southerly return flow develops.
This will occur in advance of a positively-tilted upper trough
that is forecast to develop from the Southwest U.S. into the
Central U.S. Within this regime, medium range guidance shows
some significant differences regarding individual shortwaves
that are forecast to traverse the Southeast U.S. It`s a pattern
worth keeping an eye on as there is a decent signal for coastal
low development, especially early to mid next week. This signal
shows up in both deterministic and machine learning guidance.
This pattern typically carries a higher level of uncertainty,
though, as guidance often struggles with the evolution of
shortwaves as they eject out of the base of the trough.

At face value, the latest signal in deterministic and machine
learning guidance suggests an increased risk of meaningful
rainfall, and the forecast will reflect this potential.

Temperatures are expected to moderate by Sunday, but may then
get pulled back down if more persistent northeasterly flow
redevelops next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 630 AM Wednesday...

Key Messages

 - Periods of sub-VFR conditions and gusty southerly winds
   today as cold front approaches the region.

 - LLWS possible this morning.

Sub- VFR conditions
continue for areas along the Crystal Coast as sea fog lingers.
Also, a strengthening low level jet overnight will bring the
potential for LLWS concerns through this morning, until 15Z. Moist
southerly flow will continue ahead of a cold front through much
of today, gusting up to 20-25 kts in the late morning and
afternoon hours. Precip chances bring the potential for sub-
VFR conditions, especially in heavier showers and thunderstorms
ahead of the cold front this afternoon. IFR potential is low at
this point, with ceilings as low as 2-3kft possible with the
showers this afternoon. Terminals along the immediate coast
should be spared from subVFR CIGs with the showers waning and
clouds continuing to lift in the late afternoon/early evening.
Tonight cold front results in a wind shift becoming more
westerly. Skies rapidly clear behind the front, resulting in VFR
conditions.


Outlook: Pred VFR conditions that will continue through the
remainder of the week as high pressure builds across the area.
The high moves offshore Saturday night with precip chances
increasing on Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 AM Wednesday...

Key Messages

 - Short duration of dense fog this morning

 - Gale Warning now in effect from Cape Lookout to Cape
   Hatteras

 - Elevated winds and seas to last into tonight, and then
   redevelop Thursday night into Friday

A warm front will continue to lift quickly north through area
waters early this morning. Along and ahead of this feature, a
period of 15- 25kt winds is expected. Just behind the front, the
pressure gradient will relax, leading to a few hours of lighter
winds. During the period of lighter winds, warm air advecting
over the cooler shelf waters may lead to a brief period of dense
fog, with visibilities less than 1SM. The best chance appears
to be in/around the Crystal Coast and inland along the Neuse
River.

Eventually, the gradient is expected to quickly restrengthen as
a cold front approaches from the west. Ahead of the front, a
moderate gradient plus shallow to modest mixing should support a
period of 15- 25kt southwesterly winds. A Small Craft Advisory
remains in effect for the waters where 25kt wind gusts are the
most likely. Over the warmest coastal waters (Cape Lookout to
Cape Hatteras), frequent gusts of 35-40kt are expected this
afternoon and evening, and the Gale Watch has been upgraded to a
Gale Warning for that area. South of Lookout, and north of
Hatteras, cooler shelf waters should limit the occurrence and
duration of 35kt+ gusts. Therefore, I opted to cancel the Gale
Watch and just go with a strongly worded Small Craft Advisory.

A cold front will cross area waters tonight, putting an end to
the stronger southerly flow. Despite enhanced mixing behind the
front, winds aloft are not expected to be as strong, which
should limit the risk of 25kt+ winds. Because of this, the
current marine headlines will only address the southerly, pre-
frontal winds.

Seas of 4-6ft this morning are expected to build to 5-8ft
through the day and into this evening, then gradually lay down
to 3-5ft by late tonight.

Outlook: A reinforcing shot of cold air and enhanced mixing
will likely lead to another risk of 25kt winds across much of
the ENC waters Thursday night into Friday. Marine headlines are
likely to be issued at a later time for this surge of
northwesterly winds. High pressure then builds in over the
weekend, leading to lighter winds (5-15kt) and lower seas
(2-3ft).

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 230 AM Wednesday...

Key Messages:

 - Fire weather concerns Thursday and Friday

Eastern NC has been experiencing Moderate to locally Severe
drought conditions with a long duration of little to no
rainfall. While rain chances exist today, current forecast
rainfall totals will do little to improve the drought conditions
on a large scale. Behind the cold front tonight, dry air ushers
into the region, allowing relative humidities to drop below 35%
while wind gusts reach near 20 mph during the day. Considering
the drought conditions and decreasing greenery as the fall
season progresses, we will see an increased potential for fire
weather concerns. As high- resolution guidance becomes available
for Thursday and Friday, we will have a better idea on how
strong winds will truly be and how dry the airmass is behind the
cold front. Initial indication however is that Friday will be
the higher risk of the two days, with slightly gustier winds
compared to Thursday and dry conditions.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 11 PM EST this evening
     for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for AMZ152-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for AMZ154-156.
     Gale Warning from noon today to 10 PM EST this evening for
     AMZ154-156.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...RJ
MARINE...RM
FIRE WEATHER...MHX