Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

528
FXUS62 KMHX 180801
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
301 AM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Small probability for minor snow accumulations across Martin,
Pitt, and western Washington counties late this afternoon into
early this evening. Reasonable worst case scenario would be
minor travel impacts this evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Rain today with a changeover to snow possible across the
northern coastal plain. If the changeover happens quick enough
and snow rates are high enough, some minor snow accumulations
are possible across Martin, Pitt, and western Washington
counties late this afternoon into early this evening. The
probability of this occuring remains low (~30%), but a
reasonable worst case scenario (10% prob) would be minor travel
impacts this evening across these areas.

2) Any remaining wet roads or bridges will freeze Sunday night
into the Monday morning commute, as temperatures fall through
the 20s late Sunday night.

3) Another Arctic blast expected early through mid next week
with lows and wind chills in the teens Monday through Wednesday
mornings. Wednesday morning coldest day of the week with lows
in the teens all areas away from the beaches with high pressure
overhead.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...

BLUF...We`re still tracking the potential for a changeover to
snow late this afternoon for portions of the NC coastal plain.
For most this changeover will be non-impactful with
temperatures above freezing and snow rates fairly light.
However, there is potential (though small ~30%) for portions of
Martin, Pitt, and Washington counties to see minor snow
accumulations after this changeover IF temperatures fall quickly
to around freezing AND snow rates are moderate to high. In a
reasonable worst case scenario (10% probability), some minor
travel impacts could occur due to a coating of snow on
roadways/pavement. The likelihood of this scenario is too low
to issue a Winter Weather Advisory, but hope that this
discussion on other messaging raises awareness to this low
probability but potentially impactful event.

A cold front will push offshore later this morning and then an
area of low pressure will move along it this afternoon/evening
off the NC coast. Rain (already overspreading the area) will
continue through the day, and CAA behind the front will cause
temps to drop through the day. By this afternoon, temps will
drop into the 30s over the northern coastal plain, and snow may
begin to mix in with rain. After this point is where the crux
of the uncertainty lies. Even at this close time range, it`s
uncertain how quickly temps will fall late this afternoon and
there remains a fairly even split between warmer guidance
(rain), and cooler guidance (snow). If rain does change to snow
fairly quickly, surface temperatures will still be above
freezing, keeping any snow accumulations to elevated surfaces.
However, across the NW coastal plain temperatures may fall close
enough to freezing for some minor accumulations to occur on the
ground, and if snow rates are high enough, some minor travel
impacts could occur due to a coating of snow on
roadways/pavement. Rain/snow will taper off fairly quickly this
evening, but a brief changeover to snow is possible all the way
east to the NOBX.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

There remains some potential for the development of black ice
overnight into the Mon AM commute time if heavier rainfall
totals are seen and leave wet roads and bridges, as temps will
crash hard into the 20s overnight. First ones to ice up will be
bridges and overpasses.

Key MESSAGE 3...

Another Arctic blast is expected behind the front, leading to
well below normal temps Monday through Wednesday. Low temps
will reach the low 20s, and when factoring in wind chills it
will feel like the teens each morning. We will be close to Cold
Weather Advisory criteria both Tuesday morning (wind chills),
and Wednesday morning (air temps). Wed morning is the coldest
with high pressure directly overhead with lows in the teens
areas away from the immediate coast.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Pred VFR conditions are currently noted across ENC as of this
update and should continue over the next few hours. However,
conditions rapidly deteriorate near daybreak as rain begins to
overspread the area and expect a prolonged period of IFR
conditions on Sunday. While rain will likely persist through
most of the day could see a brief changeover to snow around
20-21Z for our terminals west of Hwy 17 but minimal impact is
expected even if this does occur.

As moisture increases behind a stalled frontal boundary and weak
low pressure system lifts NE`wards along this stalled front,
expect ceilings to quickly lower to MVFR levels (2-3 kft)
between about 10-12Z this morning. In addition to this, light
rain is expected to begin as early as 09z becoming steadier and
heavier as the morning progresses. As this occurs, also expect
ceilings to continue to lower to IFR/LIFR levels between 13-17Z.
Vis also likely drops to around 3-4 sm after sunrise Sun and
linger at those levels through 00z, although more localized
severe drops are possible in heavier rain. After 21z, colder
post-frontal air will catch up to deeper moisture and will
likely see a mix of rain and snow for terminals west of Highway
17 after 21z. This changeover will not last long, and given
expected rainfall prior and warm surface temps little to no
accum is forecast. Winds will be 5-10 kt out of the NW through
the afternoon. As we get into tonight, any leftover rain and
snow quickly push offshore between 0-3Z and skies quickly clear
behind the departing low and associated fronts. This however
then leads to the next forecast challenge which is potential
freezing fog overnight Sun. Winds ease and skies will be clear
while dry air works its way into ENC. However, given rainfall
amounts the low levels will likely be saturated so this would be
a prime setup for fog development around 6Z Mon to daybreak.
With temps below freezing can`t rule out the development of
freezing fog. Given inherent uncertainty in this threat have
elected to keep fog out of the forecast for now but if guidance
continues to hint at this threat, may need to add it into the
forecast in the coming forecast cycles.

Outlook: Outside of the freezing fog threat expect primarily VFR
conditions across ENC from late Sun night and beyond. While no
snow accumulations are expected, there`s concern for black ice
Sunday night/Monday morning. Some freezing fog may also be
possible Mon morning especially for OAJ and potentially EWN. Dry
high pressure returns Monday, bringing a return to VFR
conditions across all of ENC through mid week.

&&

.MARINE...

A brief spell of calmer conditions will end later this morning
as winds pick up behind a cold front. Small Craft conditions are
expected to develop across the coastal waters and eastern sounds
this afternoon through most of tonight as winds become NW 20-30
kts with a few gusts to 35 kts, and seas 4-7 ft.

Conditions will temporarily improve tomorrow morning with winds
W 10-20 kts, and seas 3-5 ft, but winds will again increase
tomorrow night to WNW 15-25 kts with Small Craft conditions
possibly redeveloping across portions of the coastal waters.

Outlook: Lighter winds expected Tuesday at NW 10-20 kts, with
winds becoming southerly at 5-15 kts Wednesday. Another Arctic
front will move through Thursday with Small Craft conditions
possible into Friday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST
     Monday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST
     Monday for AMZ150-156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EST
     Monday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EST
     this evening for AMZ231.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SGK
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...SGK