Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

761
FXUS62 KMHX 061140
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
740 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
SCA has been expanded to cover coastal waters S of Ocracoke
Inlet through Surf City. Timing of pre-existing SCA for central
coastal waters has been adjusted.

Today and FRI have trended drier.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A cold front will move through Thursday, bringing gusty
winds and scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.
Isolated storms may become strong to severe.

2) High pressure will build in Friday and bring a brief round
of generally dry conditions.

3) Another front will move through early next week, with
increasing shower and thunderstorm chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A positively tilted upper-level trough will
move across the Midwest THU, becoming neutral to slightly
negatively tilted over NE CONUS THU night. At the surface, a
slow moving cold front will move into ENC, pushing S of the FA
by THU night. Timing differences still in place across avail
HiRes guidance due to development of weak lows along the
boundary upstream. Depending on the depth of these waves, FROPA
could start as early as THU morning in the Nern FA, or as late
as THU evening. These timing differences could have significant
impacts on T/Td, Max temps, and available instability for storm
development.

THU, moisture convergence from Sern stream system over SWern
CONUS and the approaching system to the N will be aided by weak
areas of SFC low pressure along the front upstream will lead to
an increase in clouds and rain chances after midnight tonight
into the early morning hours THU. Forcing is expected to be
relatively weak locally with greater dynamics and stronger
jetting N of the FA. However, there is still a low, but non-
zero, chance for some storms to be strong to marginally severe
with ample bulk shear building through the day, albeit mostly
speed shear which would favor more multi-cellular storm-modes.
Instability available for convection associated with FROPA will
depend heavily on the coverage of showers and thunderstorms
early and the exact timing of the front. Current QPF for 6Z
THU-6Z FRI ranges from 0.25-1" with highest totals over NWern
zones of the FA. In addition to showers and storms, Thursday
will bring gusty SW winds with gusts to 20-25 mph inland and
25-35 mph along the coast. Storms with greatest vertical
development may mix down some of the stronger winds aloft,
making strong wind gusts the greatest threat for the area.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Surface high pressure will briefly build in on
Friday leading to a mild, mostly dry day with MaxTs in the low
70s. The high shifts offshore FRI night ahead of a shortwave to
move through the Carolinas Saturday. This will lead to warmer,
cloudier conditions to start the weekend with moisture advection
ramping up in the Serly flow developing on the W side of the
high.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Rain chances increased again later SUN into MON
ahead of another front and wave of low pressure that is
currently forecast to cross the FA through the day MON. Right
now it looks like another potential high shear/low CAPE setup,
so will continue to monitor the potential for stronger storms.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
During the day today, a steady stream of mid-level moisture
from the west should lead to a gradual increase in mid-level
cloudcover. This will then be followed by a renewed surge of
increasing low-level moisture this evening. This should support
gradually lowering CIGs during that time, with CIGs potentially
falling to MVFR conditions late tonight. Additionally,
increasing large-scale lift should lead to a gradual increase
in the risk of SHRA and TSRA, especially from KISO to KPGV. I
added a PROB30 group for both of those sites to highlight the
higher potential there compared to KOAJ and KEWN. I left TSRA
out for now due to uncertainty with how much instability will be
present.

Light southerly winds early this morning will give way to
increasing winds during the day in a typical summer-like
pattern with gusty winds along and behind the developing
seabreeze.

Outlook: A cold front will slide south through ENC on Thursday
with a continued risk of SHRA and TSRA. Additionally, there will
be a risk of IFR CIGs (40-60% chance). A northerly wind shift
will occur along the front. Drier air moving in behind the front
should support improving aviation conditions by Friday. Looking
ahead, the next opportunity for sub VFR conditions looks to be
over the weekend. There will be a risk of TSRA over the weekend
as well.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs show SSW winds at 5-15kt inside, 10-20kt offshore
with choppy seas 2-3 ft@5-6sec. Moderate to gusty SSW winds
will continue as a slow moving cold front approaches and
finally crosses THU. Light showers possible over Gulf Stream
waters during peak heating today. Have added a SCA for coastal
waters S of Ocracoke Inlet to the already existing central
waters SCA for the strengthening winds reaching criteria this
afternoon. SW winds will increase to 15-25 kt with gusts to
25-30 kt tonight into Thu, building seas to 5-7ft coastal
waters, 7-9ft offshore waters. Showers and storms likely ahead
of the front THU.

Outlook: Winds will veer to the NW Thursday night behind the
front with seas peaking at 5-8 ft. Winds will decrease to 15-20
kt with gusts to 20-25 kt by Friday morning with good boating
conditions returning by the afternoon as high pressure builds
in. The improvement will be short lived with showers and storms
expected again SAT with troughing traveling over regional waters
behind the high pressure sliding further offshore. Another brief
lull expected early SUN before conditions deteriorate yet again
ahead of a front to cross early next week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT
     Friday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Friday
     for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CQD/CEB
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...CQD/CEB