Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

613
FXUS62 KMHX 120004
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
704 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant forecast changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Light rain will end from north to south today, followed by a
few days of cooler conditions.

2) Low pressure is forecast to impact the area this weekend
bringing another round of rain and potentially a few
thunderstorms.

3) Increasing signal for above normal temperatures next week.

MARINE...Increased risk of hazardous conditions for small craft
through Thursday morning mainly along the coastal waters.

Monitoring the potential for marine impacts this weekend into
early next week associated with low pressure moving through.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A cold front will push offshore this evening,
with rain ending from north to south. Just behind the cold
front, much drier air is knocking on our door, with upstream
dewpoints in the 20s. This drier airmass, plus modest CAA will
support a return to colder conditions for a few days. With high
pressure overhead, good radiational cooling conditions are
expected by Friday night, setting the stage for the coldest
night of the weekend. Lows Friday night were dropped below
blended guidance given the setup. Some of the typically colder
locations could fall into the low 20s by Saturday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...An upper level low over western California is
forecast to open up and translate east across the Southern U.S.
this weekend, eventually moving off the Southeast U.S or Mid-
Atlantic Coasts early next week. Guidance continue to struggle
with the evolution of the wave as it reaches the Southeast,
flip-flopping between a more organized/phased/deeper system vs a
less organized/weaker system. Ensemble guidance seem to favor
the weaker solution, but some of the recent deterministic and
machine learning guidance have trended more towards a more
organized/deeper system. Given the run-to-run inconsistencies,
the messaging of this system will remain the same for now. As
has been previously mentioned, wintry precip still appears
unlikely with either solution. The main differences (weak vs
strong) appear to impact winds (weaker vs stronger),
temperatures (colder vs warmer), and the thunderstorm potential
(low risk vs higher risk). Guidance should begin to get a better
handle on the evolution of the system once it begins to kick
east of the West Coast. Regardless, this system should offer the
next opportunity for widespread rainfall.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Ensemble guidance continue to forecast a
notable upper level trough developing east of the Rockies, with
the low- level flow becoming southerly across the Carolinas.
Synoptically, this pattern favors above normal temperatures for
ENC. Adding support to this potential, the latest guidance from
the Climate Prediction Center gives a 60-70% chance of above
normal temperatures across our area next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Very high probability (near 100%) of VFR conditions over the
next 24 hours. Cold front is almost through the forecast area
this evening but is getting hung up near southern terminals
(DPL, OAJ, NKT, etc) demarcated by elevated Tds still in the 30s
and 40s. North of these sites, Tds are rapidly falling until the
20s. Dry air will continue to advect across the region overnight
with clearing skies and a steady NW winds of around 5-10 kt,
which will inhibit any lower visibilities.

VFR conditions continue into tomorrow with little change in wind
but a modest uptick in mid-level clouds. Infrequent gusts up to
15 kt are possible primarily across the inner coastal plain.

Outlook: VFR expected to prevail until later in the weekend
when a low pressure system moving across the southern CONUS
combines with a weak low forming off of the coast to bring some
more unsettled weather to the area.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will continue to gradually push south through area
waters this afternoon and evening. Behind the front, moderate
northerly winds and elevated seas will develop, lasting into
Thursday afternoon. During this time, winds are expected to peak
at 20-25kt, with seas of 4-7ft.

High pressure builds in Thursday night, and is expected to
remain overhead through Saturday. This will favor lower winds
and seas.

Outlook: Model guidance continue to differ regarding the
strength of a weather system that is forecast to impact the area
Sunday into Monday. A weaker system would favor a lower risk
area of 25kt winds, while a stronger system would favor a more
widespread area of 25kt winds, and even the potential for gale-
force winds. Given the run-to- run inconsistencies in the
models, confidence is low to moderate regarding the magnitude of
marine impacts with this system.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM EST Thursday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RM
AVIATION...MS
MARINE...RM