Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

987
FXUS62 KMHX 052341
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
641 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Confidence has increased on timing of shower/tstorm chances
Friday.

Post-frontal marine winds trended up, still below 25 kt gusts

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warm with increasing moisture and isolated showers today.

2) Widespread showers and a few severe thunderstorms possible
ahead of a cold front on Friday.

3) Cooler, drier, and more seasonable behind the frontal passage
this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A couple of slow moving to stationary boundaries
have been evident on satellite since this morning, and along
these boundaries scattered showers are ongoing. Dry air at low
levels (700-800mb) and at mid levels (~500mb) as denoted on the
12Z MHX sounding should help keep showers shallow and brief in
nature, and as a result thunder chances remain low through
today. With a loss of daytime heating once the sun sets,
coverage of shower should come down drastically.

We are pretty warm with temps in the low 80s inland, mid 70s
along the coast. Highs shouldn`t get much higher than this,
especially with cloud cover increasing inland.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Friday - Still looks like widespread showers
and a few thunderstorms breaking out during the afternoon into
evening as a cold front moves through Eastern NC. Ahead of the
front, we could see more isolated to scattered showers moving SW
to NE inland in the morning hours, still uncertain how much of
an impact these have to instability later on in the day.
Circling back to Friday afternoon, anomalous moisture and
higher-than-normal instability (assuming morning showers have
little to no impacT) for early November is expected, as
indicated by EFI highlighting CAPE vals nearing the 80th
percentile. Have maintained thunder threat for inland areas
where the EFI is highlighting the higher CAPE/Shear indices
inland, and where highest instability and shear will reside.
Confidence is increasing on the best forcing lining up with peak
heating, a strong to severe thunderstorm threat would
materialize for areas especially along and west of the
Jacksonville/New Bern/Washington, NC corridor in the afternoon
and early evening Main threat would be damaging wind gusts. With
some weak helicity present a brief, weak tornado can`t be ruled
out. The front sweeps offshore late Friday with any remaining
showers exiting the OBX around or shortly after midnight Friday
night.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Good agreement amongst models with frontal
passage late Friday, allowing a more seasonably dry airmass to
usher in for the weekend. Return to mostly sunny skies and
highs in the upper 60s to low 70s Sat, then cooler yet for Sun
with 60-65. Lows will be in the 40s, with some 30s for some of
the normally colder spots. We will have to monitor the temp
forecast for any frost concerns Sunday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecast confidence is moderate over the next 24 hours.

Isolated showers will continue for the next hour or so but
gradually wane with loss of heating, leaving eastern NC under
mainly a mix of mid and high level clouds. Tonight, guidance
continues to remain unconvinced on low stratus (apart from the
LAMP, which shows probabilities of MVFR cigs or worse tomorrow
morning at 15-20%). Given little change in the pattern the past
two nights, offered at least a SCT mention of lower cigs at IFR
levels. More spotty -SHRA may begin encroaching on the area
from the west in the morning hours as well, as a cold front
slowly edges east through central NC. Once we get towards the
afternoon, the front is at our doorstep and TSRA risk with some
gusty winds increases. A few stronger storms are possible and
these could produce gusts of 40+ kt at times.

Behind the front, low stratus will encroach under the resulting
frontal inversion and an extended period of at least MVFR
appears increasingly likely late Friday into Saturday.

Outlook: A drier northwesterly flow behind the front should
support mainly VFR conditions from Saturday into much of next
week as a cooler and more seasonable airmass anchors over the
region.

&&

.MARINE...
Light to moderate southerly winds will continue through the
period (strongest across the outer southern and central waters).
Seas will persist at 3-5 ft nearshore and 4-6 ft offshore
through Friday. Scattered light showers will be possible through
today. Friday, cold front moves through in the evening into
overnight hours for our waters. Ahead of the front, strong
thunderstorms capable of gusty winds and a brief waterspout are
possible. Behind the front, winds switch to the north/northwest,
gusting to near 20 knots.

Outlook (Friday night through Monday): Cold front pushes
offshore, with north/northwest winds gusting to 20-25 knots
behind it. Tstorm threat pushes offshore with the front. High
builds in this weekend into next week, keeping winds below 20
kts and skies rain-free. Waves also go down as a result.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DAG/RJ
AVIATION...MS/RJ
MARINE...DAG/RJ