Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

453
FXUS62 KMHX 080730
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
330 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A heat advisory has been issued today for Greene, Lenoir,
Duplin, Onslow, Jones, Carteret, Craven, and Pamlico Counties
starting at 11AM.

Issued a small craft advisory for the coastal waters.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible once again
today as a weak cold front washes out across the region. Some
of these storms could bring gusty winds and heavy rain.

2) Dangerous heat and humidity persists across ENC into this
weekend.

3) There is a chance for some strong thunderstorms later this
weekend into early next week as instability builds across ENC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Thunderstorm activity from last night has since
weakened with just some isolated showers noted across ENC this
morning. Latest surface analysis shows this ongoing activity is
currently riding east just to the south of a slow moving cold
front which is noted near the NC/VA border. General expectation
is for this front to gradually move south through the day
eventually stalling and washing out across ENC, bisecting the
area around or just north of Hwy 70 this afternoon. This
backdoor cold front will combine with the seabreeze and will be
the focus for shower and thunderstorm development later this
morning and afternoon. While CAM guidance has come in slightly
drier than previous runs, I am a bit skeptical of this outcome
given the poor performance of the CAMs over the last few days.
For now to not completely rule it out, have lowered PoPs
slightly closer to 40-60% to lend credence to the potential
scattered nature of activity. But will note, synoptically it
would make sense to have more precip coverage today as compared
to yesterday, so wont be shocked if I am slightly too low on
PoPs and adjustments upwards are needed later this morning.

To the south of this front a warm and unstable airmass will be
in place outside of the N`rn OBX and far NE`rn counties as the
front will move through these locations first. A combination of
ample moisture and hot temps today will result in MLCAPE
building during peak heating to around 2000-3000 J/kg across ENC
with the highest values noted along the Crystal Coast and just
south of the aforementioned front. Will note some guidance has
MLCAPE values building closer to 3000+ J/kg this afternoon which
could act to increase thunderstorm strength. In addition to
this, with the front moving south we may have slightly more
deep layer shear as compared to previous days (closer to 25kts).
All of this could lead to a few storms becoming strong to
severe in nature this afternoon. SPC has portions of ENC under a
marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe weather with damaging
winds (40-60 mph) and small hail being the main hazard within
the strongest storms.

In addition to this, given the slow moving nature of the front,
storm motions will be rather slow, and with PWATs generally
around 2-2.5 inches across the region any thunderstorm that
develops will be a rather efficient rainmaker. So in addition to
the severe threat we will also have a threat for localized
flash flooding, and WPC has kept much of the area under a
marginal risk for excessive rainfall as well.

Beyond today, PoPs return back to climo (20-40%) as more
typical seabreeze showers/storms return. Hts/thicknesses slowly
build in the process as ridging begins to build once again, with
heat indices around 100-110 in the forecast later this week. As
we get into the weekend, an upper trough and associated surface
front look to approach from the north and west bringing the
next threat for increased shower and thunderstorm activity

KEY MESSAGE 2...While we sound like a broken record, we will
continue to be hot and humid across ENC into this weekend. Today
the hottest temps (upper 80s to mid 90s) will be noted south of
the previously mentioned cold front today. While cooler temps
(low to mid 80s) will be noted along the OBX which is where the
front will move through first. Combined with dewpoints in the
70s we will once again see heat indices today around the
100-110F range across the Crystal Coast. As a result have
issued a heat advisory for the same area as yesterday as areas
from Greene/Pamlico County south have the best chance to reach
heat advisory criteria given later timing for showers and
storms here. This also coincides with the major heat risk
footprint across the CWA.

As we get into Thursday and into this weekend expect to see
continued hot and humid conditions as temps get into the 90s
each day with the hottest temps occuring on Thurs/Fri. Lows each
night only get into the mid 70s to low 80s not bringing much
relief to the area each night. With dewpoints in the 70s there
could be widespread heat indices around 100-110 each afternoon
from Thurs into Sat. Probabilistic heat risk shows a 60% +
chance for reaching major heat risk values with the greatest
risk coming on Thurs/Fri so additional more widespread heat
advisories may come into play over the next few days before we
finally cool off Sun/early next week.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Some changes with regards to this weekend as
instability has trended down with MLCAPE values likely closer to
1000-2000 J/kg this weekend as more cloud cover may be noted
this weekend. Either way, with an upper level trough, mid level
shortwave and surface front approaching from the north and west
this weekend an increase in shower and thunderstorm chances is
likely. While instability has trended down, with a cold front
moving into the area from the north and west could see a few
stronger storms this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low stratus has developed across portions of the Crystal Coast
and SW`rn counties impacting the OAJ/EWN terminals as of this
update as low level moisture has pooled across these areas.
This has brought IFR ceilings to these terminals with generally
VFR conditions noted elsewhere. Generally expect these low
clouds to persist into daybreak, perhaps expanding slightly
before lifting around 12/13Z. Have TEMPO groups to account for
this threat across EWN/OAJ while ISO/PGV hold on to a VFR TAF
into daybreak. Afterwards a cold front will begin to approach
from the north which will bring yest another round of TSRA to
portions of ENC. Any thunderstorm that impacts the area would
bring a threat for brief periods of sub-VFR ceilings/vis mainly
after 18Z. For now given the scattered nature of this activity
have just used VCTS at the terminals this afternoon but can
expect a mix of PROB30/TEMPO groups as we get closer in time and
nail down exact timing for storms for each terminal. Otherwise
once the front stalls and washes out will likely see a return to
VFR conditions to all of ENC this evening.

Outlook (Wednesday night through Sunday): Beyond Wed, more
typical iso to widely sct activity expected as ridging rebuilds
into ENC so a much lower threat for sub-VFR conditions. However,
as we get into the weekend as an upper level trough and
associated surface front approaches increasing chances for
showers and storms as well as sub-VFR conditions will be noted.

&&

.MARINE...
Have issued a small craft advisory along the coastal waters from
Hatteras Island south to Onslow Bay as latest obs have shown
frequent SW`rly wind gusts up to 25 kts overnight. While this
small craft advisory currently goes out until 8AM today, have
seen a recent reduction in wind gusts so could end this small
craft earlier than previously anticipated.

Either way, latest obs across our waters show widespread 10-20
kt SW`rly winds with a few gusts up to 25 kts across our waters
this morning. With a weak backdoor cold front approaching from
the north, expect the gradient to weaken across our waters
today allowing winds to ease to 5-15 kts by this afternoon.
Winds will shift to a NE-ENE direction to the north of the front
and remain SW`rly to the south of the front. The front is
forecast to bisect our waters around Hatteras Island before
washing out this evening. In addition to the weak wind shift,
scattered showers and thunderstorm will be possible today along
this front bringing a risk for locally enhanced winds and seas.
As we get into tonight, front dissipates ending the
thunderstorm threat and allowing winds to become S`rly across
all waters varying from SE-SW at 5-15 kts. Seas generally remain
around 2-5 ft into Tuesday morning across our coastal waters.

Outlook (Thursday through Sunday): A summer time pattern with a
strengthening thermal trough is forecast from Thurs on into
this weekend. This will result in increasing SW`rly winds each
afternoon through Sat bringing our next threat for small craft
conditions to our waters. Next frontal passage occurs over the
weekend as well brining increased chances or showers and
thunderstorms Sat night into Sun.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for NCZ079-090>092-094-193>196-198-199.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ154-
     156-158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RCF
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...RCF