Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

600
FXUS62 KMHX 070721
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
321 AM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The onset of precipitation for this weekend has shifted slightly
faster.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Seasonable fall weather lingers through today.

2) Warming trend begins late this week and into the weekend,
along with next chance for rain, potentially heavy.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Little change in the weather pattern forecast
today as high pressure and dry airmass remains in place and
temperatures only slightly below normal for early October.
Radiational cooling occurring this hour with some of the more
reliably cool spots already into the upper 40s. Low-level
thicknesses slowly build today and highs will be a few degrees
warmer than yesterday but still below 80. A modest uptick in TDs
suggests lows overnight in the low to mid 50s, but well
sheltered spots could make a run again into the upper 40s.

Overall airmass will be too dry for widespread fog, but some
very shallow and transient patches are possible this morning and
next.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Overall pattern evolves later this week as upper
level ridge expands across the southeastern CONUS in response to
deepening troughing over the Rio Grande Valley as well as a
developing tropical cyclone (currently designated TD 9 and
referred to as such for the remainder of the discussion) over
the south- central Gulf. Conditions remain dry over the
Carolinas, but the rising low- level thicknesses point to highs
rebounding to above normal. Most inland areas will reach the low
to mid 80s, with highs around 80 near-shore.

By the weekend, TD 9 is forecast to have strengthened and lifted
northward towards the Gulf Coast, interacting with the mid-level
trough. This evolution is complex and model guidance still shows
some spread on its timing and track, especially as it migrates
further inland. What is likely is east of TD 9 a warm front will
lift northeast across the southeastern CONUS on the leading edge
of the cyclone`s deep tropical moisture. The potential for a
wave of low pressure to develop along the front remains a low
probability event based on 00z guidance trends, but given the
aforementioned uncertainty trends will continue to be monitored.

Highest confidence remains around a moderate to heavy rainfall
event across eastern NC. Timing of rainfall onset is a source of
considerable uncertainty, with this morning`s guidance suite now
favoring a Saturday afternoon/evening and Sunday time frame. The
AI guidance and the GFS have shifted more into this faster camp,
while the ECMWF model remains slower (its AI counterpart,
interestingly, favors a faster onset as well). Given this
notable change, WPC has placed much of our area in a Slight
(Level 2 of 4) risk of excessive rainfall covering Sat AM to Sun
AM. The probability for exceeding an inch of rain across all
ensemble suites, regardless of timing, still remains around the
50-75% for much of the area.

Guidance suggests minimal instability, but sometimes this type
of setup can favor some shallow, rotating thunderstorms along
the advancing warm front where southeasterly flow is enhanced.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Pred VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with light
winds and generally clear skies. Some very shallow transient fog
is possible across mainly inland terminals (mainly PGV and ISO),
but impacts should be minimal to operations. High pressure
crests overhead keeping winds light and skies primarily clear.
Wed night features another potential period of shallow fog.

Outlook: The overall pattern is expected to remain mostly
unchanged through the end of the work week. Outside of a
MIFG/BR/FG risk each night and morning, mostly VFR conditions
are expected to prevail. The next chance for widespread sub-VFR
conditions comes over the weekend as tropical moisture moves
north into the area from off the Gulf and Southwest Atlantic. RA
and potentially a TSRA risk looks to accompany the increased
moisture as well.

&&

.MARINE...
Marine conditions continuing to improve this morning with
northeast winds easing to around 10-15 kt and seas falling to
3-4 feet nearshore. Winds continue to fall through the day as
high pressure crests overhead, eventually veering southwesterly
north of Oregon Inlet but remaining at around 10 kt or less. Seas
fall to 2-3 feet nearshore later today and into tonight.

Outlook: Gradient is forecast to re-strengthen over the weekend
as a front develops off the Southeast U.S. coast. This front
will eventually lift north as a warm front as a tropical system
in the Gulf lifts north through the Gulf Coast States and
weakens. A period of moderate southeasterly winds is likely to
accompany the front, with 20-30kt winds likely, along with seas
building to 6-8ft at 7-8s. The evolution of this system remains
complex and uncertain, so users should remain vigilant to future
forecast adjustments.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RM/MS
AVIATION...RM/MS
MARINE...RM/MS