Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

349
FXUS62 KMHX 241851
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
251 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Have added an increased Fire Danger Statement for Saturday.
Extended ongoing small craft advisories out until 5AM Saturday.
Have also slowed the timing of the incoming cold front and its
associated precipitation on Saturday with best chances now
Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Severe drought conditions remain across North Carolina and
elevated fire concerns persist. An increased Fire danger statement
has been put in place for much of the inland areas for Saturday.

2) Multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms over the next
several days with the best chances coming this weekend as front
moves through. Rain chances decreasing for Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot conditions are forecast for Saturday as temps
get into the 80s to low 90s. With dewpoints mixing out into the
upper 40s to low 50s tomorrow across much of our inland zones, Min
RH`s will reach 20-30% outside of the OBX where Min RHs of 40-60%
will be found. Wind gusts could get as high as 20 mph at times
Saturday afternoon especially behind the seabreeze as it works its
way inland. With ongoing wildfires already occuring across ENC and
the threat for easy ignition of fires given the dry and gusty
conditions, in collaboration with the NCFS have hoisted an Increased
Fire Danger Statement out across Martin and Beaufort Counties south.

ENC remains under widespread drought conditions with just about the
entire area under severe drought (D2) conditions with a small sliver
of Martin county under extreme drought (D3) conditions. The lack of
rain continues to be rather noticeable across the Southeastern US,
with rainfall amounts since March 23 running about 10-50% below
normal. Locally here in ENC, this equates to rainfall totals running
about 2-5" below normal over that same time period.

Given the ongoing drought, fire weather will continue to be a
concern until a more substantial rain event occurs. Either way, a
statewide burn ban remains in effect for all of North Carolina, with
additional fire restrictions at all four national forests in NC.
Please see statements from the Forest Service for additional
information.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The biggest change in the forecast was to slow down
the progression of the incoming front on Saturday with most precip
now entering into the CWA by Saturday evening. The name of the game
has been to follow trends in guidance. This includes potential for a
stronger low offshore Sun night into Mon, lower rain chances on
Tuesday with a slower progression of an incoming shortwave and some
increasing potential for rain next weekend.

Weak mid level shortwave is currently transiting SE`wards along the
periphery of an upper low near the Canadian Maritimes. At the
surface this will leave a stalled frontal boundary to the north of
the area stretching from NW to SE across the Mid-Atlantic. With
increasing moisture advecting into the Carolinas, could see a few
isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening along
and just to the south of this front. Given the front has trended
further north than previous updates, best chance to see showers and
storms will be to the north of the CWA but with some of the Hi-Res
CAM guidance is still showing isolated showers along our NE`rn zones
this afternoon and evening, so have kept SChc PoP`s in the forecast
across this area. Either way, minimal precip amounts at best are
expected in the vicinity of the Albemarle Sound. Areas to the south
should remain dry and have little to no forcing for any accumulating
rainfall. Further to the west, our next feature of note will be a
surface low and its associated frontal boundaries which will track
E`wards across the Carolinas on Sat night and Sun as a mid level
shortwave quickly transits across the Mid- Atlantic. With low level
moisture continuing to increase, expect scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms across ENC Sat evening into the overnight hours and
Sunday morning. Guidance continues to suggest any storms that
do develop will likely remain sub-severe as deep layer shear
generally remains 25 kts or less, instability is meager, and
greatest forcing from the approaching front is located to the
north. Rainfall totals still look to generally remain below 0.5
inches overall.

This will be the beginning of our more active pattern over the next
several days with the upper low to the east pushing out into the
central Atlantic and a southern stream jet stream overspreading the
Mid-Atlantic and bringing several mid level disturbances quickly
east into our area.

Guidance has come into some better agreement that as the front on
Sunday pushes offshore a low will develop along this front and
deepen as it slowly tracks east into the central Atlantic. While
precip will finish by Sunday, a decent N`rly surge of winds will
move over the area Sun afternoon into Monday as well and have
increased winds and gusts to account for this.

Trends for Tuesday have become a lot drier, with precip chances and
amounts dwindling. This is due to ridging in the wake of the low
offshore lingering, substantially weakening the approaching front.
There is a scenario at play now where we get no rainfall on Tuesday.
Late week next week will also be worth monitoring for rainfall
probabilities but given general uncertainty in the upper level
pattern and surface features will continue to just monitor the
chances.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR flight cats expected through the TAF period. Light to moderate
winds in place ahead of the seabreeze with VFR diurnal CU developing.
Once again, a southerly wind shift is expected this afternoon as
the seabreeze advances inland through this evening. Additionally,
isolated SHRA and TSRA may develop across the northern portions
of the area this afternoon and evening, 15-20% chance across
Nern routes. Skies become mostly clear with winds relaxing
overnight. Almost a copy paste forecast for SAT with light SW
winds and SKC early. Winds strengthen through the day with
another VFR cloud group developing in the afternoon. A cold
front will cross overnight SAT into SUN morning bringing a wind
shift, and showers and tstorms.

Outlook: A wetter, more active pattern develops over the
weekend lasting into early next week that could bring periods of
sub- VFR conditions. Showers and storms accompany a cold front
crossing ENC SAT night into SUN with subVFR VIS possible under
heavier rain of stronger cells. CIGs decrease to MVFR, and
perhaps IFR, early SUN morning. These subVFR CIGs are expected
to remain in place through MON at least before becoming confined
to the coast and offshore. These lower clouds could keep MVFR
flight cats at OBX terminals into mid-week.

&&

.MARINE...
Biggest change in the forecast was to extend the ongoing small
craft out until 5AM Saturday as the thermal trough is forecast
to maximize once again tonight allowing for periods of SCA winds
south of Cape Hatteras.

Latest obs show SW winds have eased closer to 10-15 kts with
gusts up to 20 kts across much of our waters, while at the same
time seas across the coastal waters have lowered to 3-5 ft.
Across the coastal waters south of Cape Hatteras though, this
should be short lived as the thermal trough maximizes once again
resulting in widespread 15-20 kt SW winds with gusts up to 25
kts at times and 4-6 ft seas. ELsewhere winds will be slightly
lighter coming in at 5-10 kts with gusts up around 15-20 kts and
2-4 ft seas. The localized gradient associated with the thermal
trough is then forecast to weaken by Sat morning allowing for
winds to also ease across the coastal waters south of Cape
Hatteras as well thus ending the SCA conditions across these
waters. As we get into Sat afternoon and evening winds will
become S`rly at 10-15 kts with gusts up around 20 kts across all
waters out ahead of an incoming cold front. Seas across our
coastal waters from Sat morning onwards will lower to 2-4 ft as
well given the slightly weaker winds.


Outlook: An area of low pressure and its associated fronts are
forecast to move through the ENC waters Saturday night and
Sunday with elevated winds and seas and the potential for
thunderstorms. The greatest thunderstorm risk appears to be on
Saturday night into Sunday morning. Behind the front winds shift
to a N`rly direction Sun afternoon and evening and increase
with the potential for strong small craft to near gale force
winds. While no headlines have been issued just yet for this
threat will be monitoring trends as the wind and sea forecast
could increase depending on the exact track and strength of a
developing low pressure to our north and east. Either way
unfavorable boating conditions do look to set up from Sun
afternoon through at least Mon evening if not longer.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ154-156-
     158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RCF
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...RCF