Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

118
FXUS62 KMHX 281938
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
338 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The threat for severe thunderstorms this afternoon has
decreased.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unsettled weather pattern continues through Saturday bringing
periods of locally heavy rainfall across ENC.

2) Heat increases next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...An active weather pattern will continue into
the weekend as an upper trough digs into the eastern CONUS and a
weakening cold front approaches from the northwest.

Convection has been slow to develop today as low stratus has
lingered into the early afternoon hours and better forcing with
the front still well west of the area. Scattered thunderstorms
still expected to develop as we move through the afternoon hours
as the upper trough and sfc front continues to slowly move
toward the area. Instability is forecast to peak a bit lower
with the delayed onset of heating, generally around 1500-2000
J/Kg, with bulk shear around 20-30 kt. Could still see stronger
storms develop this afternoon producing strong wind gusts and
torrential rainfall, however the risk for severe storms has
decreased and SPC has lowered the threat to general thunder. PW
values remain high with 2.2" observed in the 12z/28 KMHX
sounding and stronger storms that develop will be capable of
producing heavy rainfall rates bringing the threat for localized
flooding and WPC continues a slight risk (level 2 of 4) for
excessive rainfall across the region.

The upper trough and attendant front move into the area
overnight with the threat for showers and thunderstorms
continuing but do not anticipate severe storms as instability
and shear wanes. Continued unsettled on Saturday but the upper
trough begins to lift north of the area with height rises aloft
and weakening dynamics throughout the day bringing a minimal
threat for severe thunderstorms but there remains a marginal
risk (1 of 4) for excessive rainfall.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Upper ridging builds into the region from the
west for the early to mid portion of next week bringing lower
chances for showers and thunderstorms although cannot rule out
isolated storms along the sea breeze through peak heating. The
main story will be the building heat with highs expected to
climb into the 90s early next week and peaking in the mid 90s as
we move into the middle of the week with heat headlines
possible, Wednesday, Thursday and possibly lingering into Friday
with heat index values in the range of 105-115deg possible.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
# --- AMD NOT SKED has been appended to EWN TAFs as the site is
not transmitting through normal channels. The site is still
reporting via telephone so it will be monitored, but not as
frequently as when it is completely operational. The next
closest ASOS is at Cherry Point (KNKT). --- #

Stratus has lingered across rtes much of the morning with a few
terminals continuing to report MVFR cigs, however the TAF sites
are now VFR. Expect pred VFR through the afternoon as LCLs
continue to rise. Scattered showers and thunderstorms could
bring periods of sub-VFR conditions, however. The chance for
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
overnight as a front slowly drops into the area. Descent
probabilities for fog and stratus development again late
tonight with sub-VFR stratus potentially lingering through much
of Saturday morning as plenty of low level moisture remains in
place, highest probs across western rtes. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop again Saturday afternoon.

Outlook: High pressure builds in from the west on Sun and
beyond resulting in more benign flying conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Currently seeing S to Swrly winds around 5-15kt with higher
gusts near the Gulf Stream, and seas around 2-4 ft. A weakening
front will move into the waters tonight and stall bringing light
winds mainly 10 kt or less through Saturday and seas subsiding
to 1-3 ft. An active weather pattern will remain in place over
the weekend with thunderstorms bringing periods of locally
stronger winds and higher seas, especially during the late night
and morning hours.

Outlook: Latter half of the weekend and early next week, front
pushes offshore and away from the area as high pressure builds
in from the W allowing for more benign marine conditions and
lower chances for precip.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SK/CEB
AVIATION...SK/CEB
MARINE...SK/CEB