Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

834
FXUS62 KMHX 131851
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
151 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Frost Advisory has been issued for the far western row of ENC
counties for late tonight into early Saturday morning.

The chance of showers was slightly increased for this evening and
early tonight.

Small Craft Advisories were issued for portions of the central and
northern waters for late tonight into Saturday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered showers to accompany a cold front this evening.

2) Frost/freeze impacts expected this weekend.

Marine: Elevated winds and seas will continue across the waters
through the weekend as a series of cold fronts push through the
region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A potent upper level shortwave will pivot through
the Carolinas this evening, with an accompanying area of moderate
low-mid level frontogenesis. The area of enhanced lift associated
with the wave and frontal forcing will overlap with an area of
moderate low-mid level moistening and steep lapse rates this
evening. While moisture isn`t great, short-term guidance insists on
shower development from around sunset this evening to around
midnight tonight. This appears to be a scenario where lift and
slantwise instability should be able to overcome the lack of better
moisture, and make use of whatever moisture is available. Elevated
instability is forecast to be lower than last evening, therefore the
risk of lightning looks to be lower. Significant rainfall is not
expected with these showers.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong surface high will build in over the weekend
and will be accompanied by a colder than normal airmass. This should
support below to well below normal temperatures, both during the day
and at night. Behind tonight`s cold front, it now looks like there
is just enough of a chance for winds to decouple well inland as lows
fall into the low to mid 30s. This increases the odds for frost
development, and a Frost Advisory has been issued for late tonight
into early Saturday morning for the western row of ENC counties.
East of there, low to mid 30s appears possible as well, but
confidence in winds decoupling enough for frost formation is lower,
therefore the Advisory does not include those counties.

The coldest thicknesses associated with this airmass will settle in
Saturday night. With strong high pressure overhead and good
radiational cooling conditions, the stage is set for lows in the
upper 20s to low 30s for many inland areas away from the influence
of water. A Freeze Watch remains in effect for those areas for
Saturday night into Sunday morning. A Frost Advisory may be needed
for some counties bordering the watch area if winds decouple enough.
This weekend may end the frost/freeze program for some counties, but
for the rest, some frost/freeze potential may continue into early
next week as high pressure continues to support good radiational
cooling conditions in tandem with cold low-level thicknesses. The
airmass is forecast to moderate some, though, but probably not
drastically so given a mostly unchanged synoptic pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecast confidence is moderate to high over the next 24 hours.

A secondary cold front will move south out of Virginia and into
North Carolina over the next several hours. This front will be
accompanied by an area of enhanced low-mid level lift, weak
instability, and modest moisture. Similar to yesterday and last
evening, another round of SCT SHRA appears likely this evening into
the early portion of tonight. Where SHRA occur, brief reductions in
VIS are likely, and PROB30s have been added where confidence in SHRA
is the highest. For now, though, the risk of sub-VFR CIGs appears
low. The front will be accompanied by a modest WNW to NW wind shift.
Winds may occasionally be gusty as well, especially during the day
Saturday.

Outlook: Yet another weak front/surface trough is forecast to move
through late Sunday into Sunday night with a NW to NNE wind shift.
This front isn`t forecast to have nearly as much lift or moisture
with it, and the risk of SHRA appears much lower. Otherwise, VFR
conditions look to prevail into next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Relatively light winds of 5-15kt this afternoon will rebuild to 15-
25kt by tonight as yet another cold front moves south through the
area. The greatest risk of 25kt winds with this next surge of wind
looks to be across portions of the central and northern waters, and
a new suite of Small Craft Advisories have been issued to account
for this. Of note, the only non-coastal waters included in the
advisory for now are the Croatan and Roanoke Sounds as some
funneling may enhance winds in that area. It`s possible the advisory
will need to be expanded west some to include other inland
rivers/sounds, but guidance has been fairly consistent showing sub-
25kt winds west of the current advisory area.

For the coastal waters, seas of 3-5ft this afternoon will build to 5-
8ft across the central and northern waters, and the outer coastal
southern waters. Elsewhere, seas of 3-5ft will be common.

Outlook: Modest north to northeast winds of 10-15kt, with higher
gusts, will be the theme going into next week as high pressure is
anchored to the north, and low pressure develops well offshore to
the SE of ENC. Seas will generally be 2-4ft nearshore, and 3-5ft
offshore.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM EST Saturday for NCZ029-044-
     079-090-091.
     Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning
     for NCZ029-044-045-079-080-090>092-193-198.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Saturday to 1 AM EST Sunday for
     AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Saturday to 1 AM EST Sunday for
     AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday for AMZ231.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RM
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...RM