Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

944
FXUS62 KMHX 120016
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
816 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with this forecast package.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Increased risk of scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms through Monday, some of which could be strong to
marginally severe, along with a risk of heavy rainfall and
scattered instances of flooding.

2) Brief reprieve from the dangerous heat early next week, then
hot and humid conditions return by the end of the week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Another remnant MCV is pushing across the
Carolina piedmont this afternoon and expect another round of
showers and thunderstorms to push across ENC late this
afternoon. Already seeing a few showers develop this afternoon
with instability increasing and could see isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms this afternoon ahead of better forcing
with the MCV. Guidance is not showing quite as an organized line
of thunderstorms as we say yesterday, likely to to weaker shear
over yesterday, but DCAPE and instability are similar and could
see stronger storms produce gusty/damaging winds of 50-70 mph.

In the wake of the late-day/evening convection, a frontal
boundary is forecast to settle into the area, with areas of low
pressure rippling east along it through Monday. Increasing
moisture and lift along the frontal zone is expected to support
multiple rounds of scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms. While the pattern appears kind of messy for
severe weather, the frontal zone probably helps to boost deep
layer shear some, and there may be at least a marginal/low-end
severe risk, especially on Sunday. Additionally, multiple rounds
of thunderstorms within a moist environment (PWAT values around
2.25") could lead to some hydro issues. This may especially be
the case on Sunday when instability and lift will be maximized,
favoring the heaviest rainfall rates and amounts. In light of
this, WPC has increased the risk of flash flooding from marginal
to slight for much of ENC for Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...In the wake of the active convective period
through Monday, a not as hot northeasterly flow regime will
develop across the Carolinas early next week, favoring slightly
below climo temps. This will offer a brief reprieve from the
dangerous heat of late. The reprieve is expected to be short-
lived, however, as heat rebuilds late-week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Pred VFR conditions continue at terminals with two areas of
convection to watch, the more robust pushing across the inner
coastal plain and likely to impact PGV and ISO within the hour
and moving ESE, and more isolated and short-lived single cells
from roughly EWN to MRH. Stronger storms have had a history of
producing winds up to 30 kt and very low visibility in
torrential rainfall - this threat will continue for coastal
plain terminals through 01z and EWN through 02z.

A frontal boundary drops into the area late tonight into early
Sun morning which may bring additional showers and occasional
sub- VFR conditions. The probabilities for sub-VFR stratus
remain quite low with highest probs around 20-30% across far
northern rtes late tonight into Sunday morning in the vicinity
and north of the frontal boundary. To the south the
probabilities are less than 20%. Numerous showers and
thunderstorms expected to develop tomorrow afternoon with the
frontal boundary stalled across the area bringing periods of
sub-VFR conditions, and introduced VCTS to TAFs this cycle given
higher confidence.

Outlook (Sunday night through Thursday): An increased risk of
TSRA is expected to last through Monday and possibly lingering
into Tuesday, bringing an increased risk of sub-VFR conditions.
This is due to a frontal zone and a developing area of low
pressure interacting with a moist and unstable airmass over the
area. Predominantly VFR conditions are expected to return by
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
W to SW winds around 10-20 kt with seas around 2-5 ft across the
waters this afternoon. A frontal boundary will drop into the
region late tonight into Sunday with winds shifting to N to NE
around 10-15 kt to the north of the front. The front is expected
to stall over the area Sunday with lighter and somewhat variable
winds to the south of the front. Shower and thunderstorm
chances increase this evening ahead of the approaching front and
continue into early next week with the front stalled near the
area.

Outlook (Sunday night through Thursday): An area of low
pressure is forecast to develop and move east along a stalled
frontal zone late Sunday into Monday, then shift east by
Tuesday. Some guidance showing occasional periods of 25kt winds
and/or 6ft seas developing around this low Sunday night into
Monday, and marine headlines may eventually be needed for a
portion of the waters, with a better chance on Monday. Boating
conditions are forecast to improve by Tuesday or Wednesday as
winds and seas lay down with good boating conditions continuing
into Thursday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RM/SK
AVIATION...RM/SK/MS
MARINE...RM/SK