Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

689
FXUS62 KMHX 121835
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
235 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect for much of eastern NC
through this afternoon.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A strong cold front will cross the area this afternoon/evening
with gusty winds, widespread rain, and a few thunderstorms
expected. Thunderstorms may be capable of producing damaging
wind gusts and an isolated tornado.

2) Low probability (< 10%) of a wintry mix behind the front
generally north of Highway 264.

3) Strong cold front next week poses a potentially higher severe
risk.

Marine...Conditions will deteriorate through the afternoon with
Gales expected this afternoon through late tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Strong cold front, in tandem with a potent
mid-level shortwave digging towards the mid-Atlantic and taking
on an increasingly neutral to slightly negative tilt, is
crossing NC this hour driving a band of a few thunderstorms
embedded in a line of showers. Strong gust front is racing ahead
of this boundary with several recorded gusts of 40-45 kt
immediately ahead of it, while stronger cells are posting winds
near the 50 kt range. Buoyancy is weak ahead of this boundary -
around 500 J/kg - but low-level shear is quite impressive,
exceeding 60 kt out of the southwest per SPC mesoanalysis. Long
straight hodographs favor organized storms to continue with a
primary risk of damaging wind gusts, but a very brief tornado
(lasting perhaps no more than a couple minutes at most) cannot
be ruled out mainly in a QLCS setting. The front is expected
clear the region by 5pm, ending the severe threat.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Temperatures will fall so rapidly behind this
front (approx 10+ degrees/hour) that some models are showing a
brief changeover to a wintry mix of rain, snow, and sleet early
this afternoon. Highest risk of this is primarily confined to
Virginia, but HREF does point to a marginal (< 10% chance) of
some mixed precip intruding in areas north of Highway 264. Given
the low odds, this will not be conveyed in the official
forecast.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Next weather maker will be Sunday and Monday as
a powerful Colorado low rapidly deepens over the central Plains
and lifts towards the Great Lakes, quickly pulling a strong cold
front across the southeastern CONUS and Carolinas. Finer details
are yet to be determined, but it is likely the mid-level trough
driving this cyclone will take on a neutral to negative tilt by
the time the front reaches the Carolinas and quite a bit of
shear will be present (likely at least 40 kt). Experimental
mid-range AI guidance almost all are giving a signal for a
severe risk, quite higher than today`s with multiple hazards on
the table. SPC currently has our area in a 15% risk, but this
will need to be closely monitored in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions persist across ENC this afternoon however this
will change rather quickly as a cold front and its associated
rain and thunderstorm activity approaches ENC. Current radar
imagery has this activity just beginning to enter into the far
western portions of the CWA and the rain and thunderstorm
activity is forecast to quickly push east across ENC this
afternoon. Within this thunderstorm activity there will be a
significant wind shift as well as SW`rly winds at 15-20 kts with
gusts up to 30 kts shift to a WNW to NW direction with gusts
peaking as high as 30-40 kts immediately behind the front and
within the initial thunderstorm activity. To account for this,
have issued a tempo group for all terminals with ISO/OAJ/PGV
starting at 18Z and going to 21Z and EWN starting at 19Z and
persisting until 22Z. MVFR ceilings and potentially IFR vis is
forecast within this activity as well this afternoon. Once rain
and thunderstorm activity moves through ENC, skies will quickly
clear getting to VFR conditions by about 22/23Z across most of
NC outside of maybe the OBX where MVFR ceilings may hang around
until about 00Z. Gusty NW-N`rly winds will remain in place
until about the 22Z-00Z timeframe this evening before winds
quickly ease from west to east. Afterwards VFR conditions and
light winds will persist across all of ENC tonight into Friday
morning.

Outlook...Pred VFR conditions expected Friday through Saturday. The
next frontal system is expected to impact ENC Sunday through Monday
bringing periods of sub-VFR conditions in showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Increasingly hazardous marine conditions are expected tonight
due to a strong cold front that will cross the area this
afternoon/evening.

Strong southwest winds of 20-30 kt with gusts to 35-40 kt are
ongoing across area waters, with the exception of the far
northern waters where the pre-frontal gust front is resulting in
gusts exceeding 50 kt at times out of the north. Winds will
continue to rapidly veer out of the north and surge to 30-40 kt
with gusts to 35-50 kt through early this evening. Winds will
quickly improve behind the front tonight into Friday with gusts
forecast to drop below 25 kt by late tonight. Seas will peak
this afternoon/evening at 5-8 ft.

Gale Warnings remain in effect for all coastal waters, the
Pamlico Sound, and the northern rivers and sounds. Small Craft
Advisories are in effect for the inland rivers but a few Gale
force gusts are still possible, especially near the mouths of
the rivers.

The cold front will be accompanied by a risk of thunderstorms,
the strongest of which will produce enhanced wind gusts upwards
of 50 kt and brief waterspouts.

Outlook: Winds and seas will lay down Friday and Saturday with more
benign marine conditions expected. Winds and seas will rebuild
Sunday into Monday associated with the next strong cold front.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196-203>205.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ131-230-231.
     Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ135-152-154-
     156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ136-
     137.
     Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MS
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...MS