Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

115
FXUS62 KMHX 021919
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
319 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unsettled weather pattern persists into mid week as multiple
rounds of showers and thunderstorms impact ENC bringing a low end
flash flooding risk.

Marine: SCA conditions continue into Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...There will be daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms into at least mid week. Latest mid level water
vapor imagery shows an upper level trough currently digging
across the Ohio River Valley and into the Tennessee River Valley
this afternoon and this will be our main weather maker for the
next few days. The aforementioned upper trough will eventually
stall across the Tennessee River Valley on Monday and move
little into midweek. This will keep S to SW`rly flow aloft which
will continue to advect in ample moisture from the Gulf and this
will also result in several mid level shortwaves transiting
around the base of this trough and across the Carolinas. The
first shortwave is currently exiting the area this afternoon
with the next shortwave forecast to track across the area Mon
morning with yet another forecast to track across the area on
Tue. At the surface, closed low in the Midwest will gradually
shift E`wards into the Ohio River Valley today with its
associated surface front stalling just to the west. These
features, in addition to the sea breeze each afternoon/evening,
will be the main forcing present for a notable increase in
precip chances.

Ongoing shower and thunderstorm activity is forecast to
gradually decrease in coverage this evening as the
aforementionedshortwave pulls away from the area. Instability
and shear has not been overly impressive today as MLCAPE values
have remained around 1000-2000 J/kg and shear has remained below
20 kts which has limited storm organization. However, PWATs
have shot up to above 2" as moisture has pooled across ENC as a
result of the moisture transport from the Gulf today. With a
deep warm cloud layer, and long skinny CAPEs heavy rainfall
rates have been the norm this afternoon within shower and tstm
activity. Luckily storm motion has been rather fast so not
expecting any significant hydro issues this afternoon and early
evening.

However, as we get into tonight and Monday, The next in a series
of shortwaves moves through the area. With slightly better
forcing, paired with another night/day of long skinny CAPEs and
PWATs north of 2" brings yet another threat of heavy rainfall
and potential for flash flooding, especially east of Hwy 17. A
Flood Watch remains in effect for coastal NC, starting at 11 PM
tonight and ending 5 PM Monday. HREF and REFS probs of >1" of
rain are over 40% the flood watch region, increasing to 50-70%
for Hatteras Island, Ocracoke, Carteret county, and coastal
Onslow county. Reasonable worst case scenarios show 2-4" of
rain in the Flood Watch region, although higher values are
possible where heavy rain rates linger with slow storm motions.

We remain in a Slight (level 2/5) Excessive Rain Outlook for
tonight and into Monday with best chances at seeing flash
flooding likely along Hwy 17 and points east.

Beyond Monday, the trough/low is still expected to linger to our
west until eventually it gets picked up and shifted to our north by
another trough moving through the Great Lakes region. As a result,
daily elevated precip chances continue through mid-week with a low
end risk for flash flooding. By the end of the week it looks like we
return back to climo or below climo PoPs as a lack of mid level
shortwaves or significant forcing will be noted across ENC though we
do begin to warm back up with temps returning to the upper 80s to
low 90s inland and mid 80s along the OBX.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions are noted across ENC this
afternoon as scattered showers and thunderstorms have continued
to impact the region. Expect this to continue over the next 1-3
hours before shower and tstm activity briefly abates as the
area will remain between mid level shortwaves. However, as we
get into tonight sub-VFR chances (MVFR to IFR ceilings) increase
further as low level moisture continues to build. Coastal
routes could see heavy showers and thunderstorms Sunday night
into Mon morning, further reducing VIS and CIG with these sub-
VFR conditions then persisting through much of Mon morning. In
addition to all of this breezy winds will continue across the
area with gusts up around 20 kts possible into 00Z before winds
ease. Don`t expect strong winds tonight into Mon.

Outlook (Mon afternoon through Friday): Periods of sub-VFR
ceilings/vis are possible Monday afternoon into Wednesday as
ENC enters into a more unsettled period of weather with daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms with a stalled upper
trough off to the west. Precip chances and thus the threat for
sub-VFR conditions look to decrease beyond Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
Once again no significant changes to the marine forecast as
15-25 kt S-SW winds and gusts up to 25-30 kts are currently
ongoing across our waters this afternoon bringing small craft
advisory conditions to the area waters. Seas have jumped to 4-7
ft already across the area along the coastal waters. Expect
elevated winds and seas to continue across our waters into
tonight with only the inland rivers likely falling below SCA
thresholds as the gradient remains pinched across ENC between a
stalling front to the west and a ridge of high pressure to the
east. COnditions do finally ease through the day on Monday with
winds falling to 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts and seas
falling back down to 3-5 ft by Mon night ending the SCA threat
for our waters. Sunday night a shortwave moves through, with
shower and thunderstorm chances increasing substantially along
the coast. There is still a threat of some low-end gusty winds,
heavy rain, and lightning with convection Sunday night into
Monday.

Outlook (Monday night through Friday): Expect more benign winds
and seas from Tue onwards (5-10 kt winds and 2-4 ft seas) as
weak high pressure builds over the area. In addition to the
above, elevated chances for showers and thunderstorms will
remain possible into midweek.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch from 11 PM EDT this evening through Monday
     afternoon for NCZ047-081-092-094-194>196-198-199-203>205.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ131-135-150-
     230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ136-
     137.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154-156-
     158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RCF/RJ
AVIATION...RCF/RJ
MARINE...RCF/RJ