Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

916
FXUS62 KMHX 191702
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
102 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated aviation discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Locally dense fog possible for the Wed morning commute for
portions of ENC Wed morning.

2) Above normal to near- record high temperatures and rain-
free conditions to continue Wednesday.

3) A frontal system approaches the area Thursday, bringing the
next appreciable chance of showers and thunderstorms through the
weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Days of moisture advection has resulted in
dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70F across eastern NC. High
pressure centered offshore is keeping winds light to calm across
SW portions of the CWA, with decoupling allowing for the near
surface layer to reach saturation. Areas of fog and low stratus
will again be possible, esp across the SE forecast area. SPS or
Dense Fog Advisory may eventually be needed. Conditions should
rapidly improve by 9AM as strong daytime heating scours out any
fog/low stratus.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Notably warm low-level thicknesses beneath an
anomalous mid-upper level ridging will continue to support above
to well above normal temperatures across the Carolinas through
Wednesday. Guidance shows similar low-level thicknesses each
afternoon yielding highs generally in the lower 90s across the
coastal plain but some warmer spots may reach mid 90s, remaining
just shy of records. It will be closest across the coastal
plain, however.

Additionally, despite increasing low-level moisture, ridging
aloft should provide sufficient subsidence to suppress
convective activity outside of perhaps a rogue shower or
thunderstorm where convergence is maximized along the seabreeze.
Still, probs of this occuring are low enough to keep out of the
forecast with this update.

KEY MESSAGE 3...The mid-upper level ridge is forecast to break
down some late-week and into the weekend. This should allow a
front to drop south Thursday into Friday as it encounters the
persistent ridging that has been over the region for much of the
past week. Confidence is increasing on the front reaching our
CWA, with the most likely outcome being the front briefly
stalling between the NC/SC border and Cape Hatteras. Once the
high to the north shifts offshore this weekend and ridging
strengthens again to our south, the warm front will get
clearance to shift back north. The front has trended a bit
slower to reach the CWA with this update. As a result, we are
forecast to have enough residence time of warm southerly flow
Thursday morning and afternoon ahead of the front to see high
temps in the upper 80s to near 90 inland.

Increasing moisture and instability along the frontal zone
should support an increased risk of showers and thunderstorms
Thursday into the weekend. Probabilistic guidance shows a solid
chance of 0.25"- 0.75" each day. However, it should be noted
that those amounts will be highly dependent on the evolution of
the frontal zone. Initially when the front drops into the area,
there may be just enough flow aloft to support some thunderstorm
organization. Model soundings show steep low level lapse rates
and weak turning of low level winds ahead of the frontal passage
Thursday and Saturday. A layer of dry air aloft could inhibit
deep convection, but if updrafts are able to break through this,
DCAPEs of 600-1000 J/kg could support a risk of strong to
marginally severe winds. On the flip side, upper level dynamics
and deep shear look unimpressive and could inhibit organized
tstorms. This setup will be something to monitor the day of,
with the later frontal passage timing allowing for greater
instability Thursday. Friday, lower surface temps keep low level
lapse rates more muted, and as a result a severe risk isn`t
present. Machine learning and analog guidance support the
potential for strong to severe tstorms Thursday and Saturday as
well.

Notably high PWATs along the frontal zone should support higher
rainfall rates in convection. However, notable hydro impacts
are not expected due to the recent dry stretch and ongoing
drought conditions. While probs are low, if we do see training
storms over urban areas like Greenville, Jacksonville, and New
Bern, minor flooding impacts could be seen despite the ongoing
drought.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions across the terminals this afternoon. Given the
similar set up and little change to the airmass, fog and low
stratus chances return with another night of light winds and low
level moisture. Best chances at OAJ/EWN/ISO. Locally dense fog
will be possible. Conditions improve quickly after 12z.

Outlook: A frontal boundary sagging south into ENC is expected
to bring an increasing risk of SHRA, TSRA, and sub-VFR
conditions Thu into the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
A summer-like pattern continues through Wednesday, with a daily
building of winds to 10-20kt each afternoon and evening as the
thermal gradient tightens. This will especially be the case for
the inland rivers and sounds and the nearby coastal waters
within 20nm of the coast. Seas will continue around 2-3ft,
potentially up to 4 ft during the afternoon and evening.

Outlook: A frontal boundary is forecast to sag south into the
area Thursday, then meander around the area through the
upcoming weekend. This leads to lower confidence regarding winds
and seas, but especially wind direction. In general, the risk
of 25kt+ winds appears low during this time ahead of the front,
with slightly higher chances of seeing 25+kt gusts behind the
front. There will be an increased risk of thunderstorms in the
region Thursday through Sunday as well.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SK/RJ
AVIATION...CQD
MARINE...SK/RJ