Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

600
FXUS62 KMHX 211948
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
348 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Have upgraded gale watches to gale warnings across the outer
waters from Currituck Beach Lighthouse to Ocracoke Inlet 20-60
NM out. Have also upgraded the gale watch across the Pamlico
Sound to a small craft as well.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Last day of dangerous heat for the area today.

2) Unsettled pattern through much of this week with at least a risk
of strong to severe thunderstorms today and tomorrow until cold
front crosses the area Thu. There will also be a risk for flash
flooding as well with the greatest threat occuring Thursday.

3) After the strong front moves through the area Thursday, a
brief reprieve from the heat, though showers and tstorms chances
remain above Climo until next weekend keeping daily localized
flooding concerns in place.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Some low stratus in the morning had kept a lid on
temps early on, however, as we have gotten into the afternoon, ENC
has become well mixed, allowing clouds to mix and scatter out
bringing warmer temps to the region with highs getting into the
upper 80s to low 90s. With dewpoints in the 70s AppTs will
range around 100F this afternoon and again on Wednesday, though
SWern zones have exceeded 105deg for a few hours today. As a
result Heat Advisory remains in effect for these areas this
afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered showers and tstorms and
increased cloud coverage from debris clouds will end the heat
threat earlier in the day than previous days and have left the
end time of the heat advisory at 6PM. Potential for additional
cloud cover and storms Wed should keep T/MaxTs at bay, and
therefore not anticipating heat advisory criteria to be reached
at this moment on Wed.

KEY MESSAGE 2...With isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms forecast this afternoon and evening, a brief reprieve
from more widespread activity is forecast today. While we can`t rule
out a stronger gust today (40-60 mph) within the strongest storms as
MLCAPE values get to around 2500-3500 J/kg this afternoon, think
this threat would be far and few in between as a dry layer of air
and lack of forcing likely keeps activity disorganized across
the FA. SPC has an Enhanced risk (lvl 3/5) centered across the
Mid-Atlantic, with a slight risk (lvl 2/5) stretching SW`ward
into Wern TN. ENC is clipped with a sliver of Slight and
Marginal risks (lvl 2 & 1/5). While PWATS are around 2" today
given the isolated nature and lack of training storms with
todays activity, also think the flash flooding threat is very
low as well.

Biggest change today has been the slight delay compared to the
00Z suite of the frontal passage with the front not getting
into the area until Thurs which has slightly delayed the
heaviest precip until Thursday across ENC.

As we get into Wed night/Thurs and into this weekend,
previously mentioned frontal boundary will track across the
area Thurs and stall offshore with multiple mid level shortwaves
tracking across the Mid-Atlantic into this weekend bringing
elevated rain and thunderstorm chances to ENC over the next
several days. Moisture increases ahead of this front with low to
midlevel flow opening up moisture advection channel from the E
side of what is now Tropical Storm Bertha. The National
Hurricane Center continues issuing advisories for Bertha, but
poses no tropical threat to ENC at this time, as it is forecast
to meander slowly W across the Nern Gulf of America. The
greatest risk for strong to severe thunderstorms will be Wed
associated with a prefrontal trough, with the threat shifting
to more of a hydro threat Thurs.

For Wed expect leftover cloudcover in the morning to mix out and
lift into the afternoon hours. With a warm and moist environment
in place across ENC through the day, this is forecast to allow
for MLCAPE values to reach 2000-3000 J/kg in the afternoon
hours. With a prefrontal trough likely setting up across ENC
out ahead of the incoming front and the seabreeze moving inland
this should be the focus for isolated to widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms once again with activity near the
coast in the morning and moving inland as the afternoon wears
on. Once again there would be a low end threat for a wet
microburst or strong downdraft wind gust (40-60 mph) within the
strongest storms. ENC is once again in a marginal risk for
severe thunderstorms tomorrow with a sliver or NW`rn Martin
County in a slight risk (levels 1 & 2 of 5). The severe risk
decreases greatly on Thurs as ongoing rain and cloudcover likely
inhibits instability, but this threat then transitions to a
flash flooding risk.

Out ahead of the strong front, moisture is forecast to pool in
ENC. This will allow the already high PWATS of around 2" to
increase further closer to 2.25-2.75" on Wed and persist across
the area through Thurs. As mentioned above, latest guidance has
slowed slightly with the frontal passage with this front likely
not entering into the area until Thurs morning. All available
guidance has showers and thunderstorms developing and training
along and just out ahead of the slow moving front Thurs. With
PWAT`s well over 2", a deep warm cloud layer, long skinny CAPEs,
and ample moisture forecast across ENC the environment will be
primed for a flash flooding risk. This risk begins Wed and
maximizes Thurs. WPC currently has the area under a slight risk
for flash flooding (level 2/4) for Wednesday with general
rainfall amounts between 0.25-0.75" possible with the highest
amounts focused along the northern tier of counties.

However, as we get into Thurs most available deterministic and
AI guidance is suggesting 24 hour rainfall totals between 2-4"
with locally higher amounts possible across ENC. This is
supported by the output from the ECMWF EFI where we are
exceeding the 80th/90th percentile and seeing a SOT of 1-2 for
24 hour QPF across the area which is indicative of a potential
extreme event across the area for 24 hour rainfall totals on
Thurs. Heaviest amounts look to be focused north of Hwy 70 with
lower amounts noted along the Crystal Coast. This coincides with
Ensemble and NBM probs with a 40-70% chance of seeing greater
than 2" of rainfall over 24hrs in these areas. As a result WPC
has place portions of ENC north of Hwy 70 under a moderate risk
for flash flooding (level 3/4) with areas south of Hwy 70 still
in a slight risk (level 2/4). Any shower or thunderstorm that
develops will be an efficient rainmaker and rainfall rates of
2-3" an hour will not be out of the question which could
overwhelm drainage and urban areas in a short amount of time
resulting in a broader flash flooding risk Thurs.

KEY MESSAGE 3...By Thu night front is forecast to make it
through the entirety of the land area of ENC, but still stall
offshore. This will lead to mostly N-NEerly flow late week into
the weekend, cutting down on the heat (low to mid 80s/upper 60s
splits into the weekend). Severe threat appears minimal behind
the midweek front, but the multi day period of showers in the
forecast could lead to hydro issues as precip will compound on
itself so the threshold for additional flash flooding will be
lower Fri into the weekend. We do look to finally dry out by
early next week as ridging builds across the region but the next
few days certainly look to be the wettest of 2026 for now.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR flight cats are noted across ENC outside of any showers or
thunderstorms where IFR/MVFR ceilings/vis are noted. Given the
isolated nature of this activity have limited all the TAF sites
to PROB30 groups for TSRA this afternoon. Within any
thunderstorm activity erratic wind gusts to 30-40+ kts will be
possible. Expect shower and thunderstorm chances to quickly
decrease this evening with a VFR TAF forecast for all sites
after 00Z and persisting into Wed afternoon across the area.
SW`rly winds remain elevated through the afternoon and tonight
with sustained winds around 10-15 kts and gusts up around 20-25
kts. Expect these winds to help keep the fog threat down. Low
level stratus possible, but expected to remain SCT or less at
this point.

Outlook (Wed afternoon through Sunday): A stronger front
approaches late Wed and into Thurs, renewing stronger shower
and thunderstorm chances WED. This front will stall offshore on
Thurs evening where it will linger into the weekend, keeping
rain and subVFR flight cat threat up through this weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Made some slight tweaks to the forecast over the next 24 hours
but in general ongoing SCAs remain across all waters as of this
updated with SW`rly winds at 15-20 kts and gusts up to 25 kts
ongoing. The pressure gradient tightens this evening as a strong
front begins to approach from the N and W allowing winds to
increase further to 15-25 kts with gusts up to 30 kts across all
waters this afternoon with 5-8 ft seas. Have upgraded the gale
watches to warnings across the outer coastal waters north of
Ocracoke Inlet as this is where I have the highest confidence in
seeing wind gusts in excess of 35 kts. Have placed a strongly
worded small craft across the Pamlico SOund as well as while
there could be occasional wind gusts to 35 kts expect this to be
a bit more infrequent. Elevated winds and seas persist through
Wed out ahead of the approaching front. Showers and tstorm
chances become confined to the GStream waters overnight tonight.

Outlook (Wednesday night through Sunday): For the outer waters,
elevated winds and seas will continue into Thurs. This is in
association with the aforementioned front that is forecast to
cross regional waters Thurs, keeping elevated winds and seas in
place and increased tstorm chances. Front moves through by
Thurs afternoon and evening with winds shifting to a NE`rly
direction and easing to a 10-15 kts with seas falling to 2-5 ft
thus ending the SCA threat by Thurs night. More benign boating
conditions outside of a scattered shower and thunderstorm threat
is forecast from Fri through the weekend.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NCZ090>092-094-
     193-194-198-199.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ131-230-
     231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ135-150-
     156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ136-137.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ152-154.
     Gale Warning from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Wednesday for
     AMZ180.
     Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Wednesday
     for AMZ182-184.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CEB/RCF
AVIATION...CEB/RCF
MARINE...CEB/RCF