Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

394
FXUS62 KMHX 150613
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
113 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Edged low temperatures down a few degrees through mid week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) First freeze of the season for much of ENC away from bodies of
water this morning, with frost potential elsewhere on the
mainland. Cold mornings continue through mid week then a
moderating trend mid to late week.

2) Dry high pres continues through much of the coming week with
warm days but chilly nights and continued ongoing drought
conditions. Afternoon relative humidities will be quite low but
winds light.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Cold low-level thicknesses and strong high pressure
over the region will support frost/freeze impacts across all of
the mainland ENC this morning. Continued good radiational
cooling through the beginning of the week will bring a freeze
threat each night/morning, although a season ending freeze this
morning would end the frost/freeze program for the counties the
freeze occurs, and additional frost/freeze headlines may not be
needed anymore. The only areas to escape frost or freezing temps
tonight will be areas immediately adjacent to water bodies,
including the beach communities. The risk of frost impacts may
be lessened Sunday night as a weak cold front moves through
which will keep the boundary layer a bit more mixed with a light
breeze preventing ideal rad cooling. High pressure then
reasserts itself Monday and Tuesday night, with freezing temps
or frost returning once again.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The aforementioned very dry airmass and low TD`s
each day over the coming week will exacerbate the worsening drought
conditions in place across ENC, and fortunately winds are not
expected to be strong with the high nearby. However, fire weather
concerns may grow with the curing vegetation combined with low RH
values each afternoon. Highs will warm back to above climo in
the upper 60s to low 70s mid to late week, but overnight lows
will continue quite chilly and below climo with the dry high
pres cont to dominate all week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Unremarkable weather for aviation interests today as high
pressure continues to dominate the area keeping skies clear and
winds W to NW at under 10 kt through the period. A weak front
will cross the region tonight bringing an uptick in clouds at
around 5-6 kft but no precipitation.

Outlook (Monday through Thursday): A weak cold front will move
through ENC by early Mon with a weak northerly wind shift.
There may be a brief bump up in winds as well, but at this time
a significant increase in winds is not expected. Light north to
northeast winds are expected to continue into much of next week
as high pressure remains centered to the north of the area.
Scattered low end VFR strato cu may accompany the Sunday night
to Monday morning front.

&&

.MARINE...
The nwrly gradient cont to weaken and winds are in the 5-15 kt
range, with some gusts aoa 20 kt over the Gulf Stream where
better mixing occuring. Seas cont to subside, with the last of 6
ft seas across the ctrl waters as of late this evening. All
nearshore marine zones will be in the 2-5 ft range by daybreak
today.

A reinforcing cold front will drop through late Sunday night
into Monday morning. This front is expected to lead to a brief
bump up in winds as it moves through. Some 25+ kt wind gusts may
mix over the Gulf Stream waters, generally south of C Hatteras,
but will not issue any SCA headlines attm, and wait to see model
trends for this possibility. Seas may briefly get a bump up
with this northerly surge as well and inc to 6+ ft over the
Gulf.

Outlook (Monday through Thursday): After Monday`s wind surge,
general N to NE winds of 10-20kt are expected for much of the
upcoming week as high pressure remains anchored to the north
while a broad area of low pressure resides to the south well
offshore of the Southeast U.S. Seas appear to remain below 6 ft
for the nearshore coastal waters.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for NCZ029-044-045-
     079-080-090>092-193>195-198-199.
     Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for NCZ046-047-081-
     094-196.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RM/TL
AVIATION...TL/MS
MARINE...TL