Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

392
FXUS62 KMHX 121049
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
649 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unsettled pattern expected through the weekend

2) Back to a more typical summertime pattern next week with
high draped over the Southeast U.S.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Dry through the CWA early this morning with a front with little
to no precip along it stalled to our north.  Through the day,
PWATs continue to climb above 2" for the entire area. A
shortwave is forecast to pass west of ENC, but should provide
enough of a glancing blow combined with the seabreeze and an
inland trough to support scattered convection capable of very
heavy rainfall rates and gusty winds, particularly along and
west of hwy 17. The increased southerly flow should lead to a
more progressive seabreeze which should also favor a more
progressive nature to the convection. While this would limit the
duration of heavy rainfall rates over any one location, the
rates could be high enough to support minor hydro concerns,
especially in urban areas. Of note, despite anomalous moisture
and moderate instability, convective coverage on Saturday is
less certain as the strongest forcing is expected to be outside
of ENC. Despite moderate instability, weak shear and lower DCAPE
should help to keep the severe thunderstorm risk at a minimum.

On Sunday, guidance continues the trend of slowing down the
arrival of a cold front that will be dropping south out of
Virginia. The front now looks to come through Sunday night. This
points towards an extra day of moist and unstable conditions,
with another round of scattered to perhaps numerous
thunderstorms. Deep layer shear is forecast to slightly
increase, but the overall severe thunderstorm risk continues to
look low. With anomalous PWATs in place, heavy rainfall rates
can be expected, with a continued risk of minor flooding
impacts.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A much drier airmass is forecast to build in
across the Eastern U.S. early next week in the wake of Sunday
night`s cold front. Additionally, guidance have trended a bit
cooler within the developing northeasterly flow regime, offering
a reprieve from the higher humidity over this weekend. From
mid-week on, guidance differ on whether it warms up or stays
milder. Additionally, guidance suggests a decent coastal trough
may develop along what is leftover from this weekend`s front.
With ridging building in, this trough may slide west beneath the
ridge and bring a return to unsettled conditions, especially
along the coast by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Terminals experiencing fog and low stratus this morning will
slowly give way to MVFR then VFR as the morning progresses.
Included a vcts mention for all TAF sites as some showers and
tstorms advance northward through the afternoon along and ahead
of the sea breeze. Thunderstorms would be capable of heavy
rainfall, lightning, and erratic winds. Severe potential is low,
so expect the vast majority of thunderstorm wind gusts to
remain at or below 40 mph.

Outlook (Sat night through Wed): There will continue to be a
risk of TSRA through Sunday. Eventually, a cold front is
forecast to move through Sunday night with drier and more stable
air in tow, along with a reduced risk of TSRA. Drier conditions
are expected to last into the middle of next week with a
reduced risk of precip.

&&

.MARINE...
Westerly winds of 5-10kt are common across most waters early
this morning. A stationary front is expected to lift back north
as a warm front by this morning. Southerly flow then prevails
through the afternoon. Seas 1-3 feet are expected to persist
through the day today. A risk of thunderstorms exists along
coastal waters this morning, shifting to inland sounds and
rivers this afternoon and evening.

Outlook: The risk of thunderstorms will continue until a cold
front moves through Sunday evening. A northerly wind shift will
occur along this front, with northeasterly flow then continuing
into next week. The strongest northeasterly winds (10-20kt) are
expected Monday and Tuesday, with a period of 25kt winds
possible for waters. Confidence in >25kt winds is moderate.
Seas will respond to the building winds, and are expected to
peak at 4-8ft Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RM/RJ
AVIATION...RM/RJ
MARINE...RM/RJ