Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

691
FXUS62 KMHX 110102
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
902 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Trended lower on rain totals inland. Increased Wave Heights.
Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Wet and breezy weekend is expected as deep tropical moisture
overruns the Carolinas. Periods of heavy rain likely, focused
along the coast, with gusty winds along the coast.

2) An isolated tornado risk in embedded thunderstorms is
possible tonight for southern/eastern areas, and for inland
areas Sunday afternoon.

3) Elevated water levels and high surf concerns for coastal
communities this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A plume of tropical moisture characterized by
2"+ PWATs and dewpoints in the 70s is forecast to continue to
overspread the Carolinas to the east of the northward-advancing
remnants of TC Isaias overnight. At the surface, a warm
front/coastal trough will trudge north along the southeastern
coastline, likely with a weak, non- tropical area of low
pressure developing along it. Now it appears the main axis of
convection will remain over the Gulf Stream, with heavy storms
offshore robbing some of the rich moisture advection into ENC.
This has been a notable trend with most of the CAMs, and the
10/12Z guidance continues this trend. For this reason, have cont
to trend down with QPF, especially inland. Most model estimates
of several inches along the immediate coast, with much lower
amts less than an inch or so for the interior Coastal Plain
counties. Will continue Flood Watch for areas along the coast,
effective through through early Sun afternoon, though bulk of
widespread rain will be over by Sun morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Possibility of convective elements reaching the
coast would warrant a tornado risk later this evening and esp
overnight as the aforementioned warm front lifts through ENC.
Plenty of low level helicity in place with the inc serly flow in
place and strong veering wind profile downstairs. The greatest
tor threat would likely be focused near the srn/sern coast where
some better instability advects onshore. For Sunday, flow
becomes more unidirectional with swrly low level winds ensuing
during the afternoon. While helicity wanes, better instability
will be in place due to daytime highs expected in the low 80s
and TD`s surging through the mid 70s. Will have to watch for
a severe threat Sunday afternoon ahead of the cold front, with
best chances appearing for the interior zones, where NCAR/HRRR
svr probs are highest.

The remnants of Isaias are forecast to round the upper level
ridge and move off the Northern Mid-Atlantic Coast early next
week. Drier air then moves in behind it with drying conditions
developing Sun night into Mon.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Strengthening onshore erly winds, building
seas, and higher than normal astronomical tides may support some
coastal impacts through early Mon. There remains uncertainty on
the magnitude of impacts, especially given the shorter-duration
of the stronger winds, as well as what should be a weaker swell
and periodicity compared to the recent Nor`easter. With that in
mind, there will be an increased risk of rip currents and large
waves, at a minimum. High Surf Advisory remains in effect
between Ocracoke and Oregon Inlets focused overnight into
Sunday. Additionally, some of the most vulnerable locations
along the Outer Banks may see at least some minor issues,
especially with Sunday morning`s high tide (7-9am). There may
also be some very minor (sub advisory) coastal flooding around
sounds and tidal waterways around the Crystal Coast due to the
higher astronomical tides.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A mix of MVFR/IFR with pockets of MVFR this evening, with sites
expected to continue dropping through the night. Widespread
IFR/LIFR is expected later tonight, and will be slow to improve
Sunday. LLWS concerns across all terminals this evening with a
SE jet at 40-45 knots around 2kft. This jet will quickly shift
to be out of the SW behind a warm front progressing northward.
By tomorrow morning LLWS should be less of a concern. Periods
of rain will bring vsbys down to 3-5 sm ocnl, with thunder
threat mainly east of the TAF sites overnight. Nerly gradient
winds through this evening with ocnl gusts to around 20-30kt
along the coast. The east winds will veer around to the south
late tonight and into Sun morning, though IFR will be slow to
erode through the morning hours. Some thunder is possible Sun
afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front, though coverage
and chances will be dictated by how much cloud cover there is
in the morning. More clouds will act to suppress the thunder
threat.

Outlook (Mon through Thu): The shower threat will end by Sun
evening as the front sweeps east and eventually off the coast
later Sun night. Mostly VFR conditions will ensue for beginning
to mid week as high pres builds in.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs show E winds 25-35 kt across the waters. The
stronger E winds will advect northward and spread up the NC
coast with gales eventually reaching the northern waters, albeit
brief, late tonight. For the sounds and rivers, SCA winds
develop with these nerly pinched gradient winds though remain
below gale force. Seas will peak at 7-12 ft tonight. The
stronger East winds will grad weaken from south to north
overnight and early Sun, gradually veering se and then south
behind the northward advancing warm front. Gales remain for the
outer waters with this swrly flow through Sunday night.

For the convection threat, strong to severe thunderstorms
containing waterspouts are possible tonight into early Sun
morning over the Gulf Stream waters as low pres travels along a
slow moving warm front. After a break in storms Sunday morning,
additional showers and storms are possible later Sun afternoon
into the evening ahead of a cold front, with precipitation
finally clearing eastward later Sun night.

Outlook (Mon through Thu): Behind a cold front Sunday night,
gusty wrly winds are expected to develop, with SCA conditions
for most of the sounds and nearshore coastal waters through
Monday morning. High pres eventually builds in later Mon through
mid week, with winds and seas diminishing.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for NCZ047-081-092-094-
     194>196-198-199-203>205.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Sunday through Sunday
     evening for NCZ195-196-199-203>205.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for NCZ204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for AMZ131-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ136-137.
     Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 6 AM EDT Sunday for
     AMZ150.
     Gale Warning until 3 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ152-154.
     Gale Warning until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ156-158-186-188.
     Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Sunday for
     AMZ180.
     Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ182-184.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CQD/TL/RJ
AVIATION...TL/RJ
MARINE...CQD/TL/RJ