Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

536
FXUS62 KMHX 031924
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
324 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Heat Advisory has been issued for almost the entire forecast
area for the 4th of July.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dangerously hot and humid conditions through the 4th of July
weekend into early next week.

2) A more active pattern takes shape next week, bringing rain
back into the forecast early to at least the middle of next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Heat and humidity will build into ENC from the
north and west today into early next week. High impact heat and
humidity is expected, as the peak of it will be during the busy
4th of July holiday weekend (Saturday through Monday) with
highs expected to reach well into the 90s inland, possibly
reaching 100 in some locales, with upper 80s to mid 90s beaches.
The combination of the heat and humidity will push heat indices
towards the 105-110 degree range or slightly higher this
weekend. Overnight lows will also be warm due to the increased
Tds, with MinTs around 80 near the coast, and mid 70s interior.

A Heat Advisory remains in effect for much of ENC today; only
locations not included in today`s advisory are Hatteras and
Ocracoke Islands, and immediate coastal zones of the Crystal
Coast, where the seabreeze circ is expected to keep advisory
criteria just out of the forecast, but MaxAppTs in these zones
will still be hot, in the 90s to lower 100 degree range.

The Extreme Heat Watch for Saturday has been upgraded and
expanded with a Heat Advisory with today`s afternoon package.
NBM`s performance over the last two or three days has proved to
be too warm across the bulk of the sensible Wx spectrum with NBM
10th and 50th percentile being closer to realized Max/Mins.
Mixing during peak heating has been stronger than advertised in
the NBM suite as well, with HiRes guidance performing better,
showing Tds mixing down into the upper 60s and low 70s vs mid
70s NBM has in its solution. With little change in the pattern,
have trended the forecast for the weekend in this direction
which has resulted in slightly lower AppTs compared to earlier
forecasts. Because of this, felt more comfortable upgrading the
watch to a Heat Advisory, albeit a larger one compared to today.
SAT`s Heat Advisory is the same as today`s with Coastal Onslow
added. There is absolutely potential for some spots to hit the
Extreme Heat Warning criteria of 110deg AppT, but I didn`t feel
that the conditions would be widespread enough or long enough
duration to warrant the product.

Heat Advisory criteria will continue to be met into early next
week with daily afternoon MaxAppT in excess of 100deg. The
compounding nature of the daily heat with little overnight
relief with MinTs trending warmer after the 4th, may warrant
the issuance of an Extreme Heat Warning over the next couple of
forecast cycles regardless of exact criteria being met. Those
sensitive to heat and anyone planning on spending ample amounts
of time outside this weekend into early next week should monitor
the forecast trends. With the ridge of high pressure overhead,
a cap will bring little to no shower or thunderstorm relief
through Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Return to a pattern of increased shower and
tstorms chances next week. A series of shortwaves, inland
troughing, and a very slow moving backdoor front will eventually
cross the FA mid-week leading to a diurnally driven, summer-
time PoP forecast through much of the long-term period. TUE
currently has the highest PoPs (50-70% TUE afternoon) when
moisture peaks ahead of the front and a pair of shortwave
troughs aloft traverse NE CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR flight cats expected through the rest of FRI, though easing
winds and humid low levels will keep patchy fog threat in play
in the early morning hours for TAF sites that see the lowest
winds. OAJ shows greatest potential and have continued TEMPO
group mention of MVFR fog, but did reduce VIS from previous TAF
issuance considering that IFR was briefly reported earlier this
morning.

Outlook (Saturday through Tuesday): Dry weather is expected to
prevail with pred VFR conditions through Sunday, but could see
patchy fog during the early morning hours. Upper ridge breaks
down Monday with shortwave energy bringing increasing chances
for showers and thunderstorms and sub-VFR conditions both Mon
and Tue.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs show S to SW winds 5-10 kt with seas 2-3 ft, and
mesoscale circulations across smaller inside waters leading to
light winds with highly variable directions. Thermal
gradients continue to tighten some this afternoon and evening
with winds increasing to around 10-15 kt with seas around 2-3 ft
with up to 4 ft possible across the outer zones.

Outlook (Saturday through Monday): The Bermuda high remains
dominant into the weekend with light winds 5-15 kt and seas
around 2-3 ft. Bermuda high pulls offshore late Sunday into
Monday with a front slowly dropping south across the Mid-
Atlantic serving to tighten gradients a bit and expect winds to
increase to around 10-20 kt and seas building to 3-5 ft.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for 7/3 (Friday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        98/1954  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   93/2014  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville     100/2019  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   92/1998  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston        102/1954  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    96/2019  (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 7/4 (Saturday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        95/2023  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   94/2020  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      99/2002  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   93/1997  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston        104/1902  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    98/1993  (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 7/5 (Sunday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        99/1990  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   92/2018  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville     100/2002  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   93/2020  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston        104/1902  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    97/1990  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ029-044>047-
     079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198-203.
     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Saturday for NCZ029-
     044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198-199-203.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ205.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CEB
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...CEB