Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

245
FXUS62 KMHX 091033
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
633 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Have issued a Small Craft Advisory for the northern coastal
waters starting this evening and ending early Friday morning.

Updated Aviation Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dangerous heat and humidity persists across ENC into this
weekend.

2) There is a chance for some strong thunderstorms later this
weekend into early next week as instability builds across ENC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1... Previously mentioned stalled frontal boundary
is beginning to lift north this morning with some isolated
showers and a rumble of thunder or two possible across the
northern zones and OBX going into daybreak. Not expecting
anything strong with this morning activity as anything that
develops will be elevated in nature. As the front lifts north,
light but steady S`rly flow is forecast to develop across ENC
with temps remaining steady or gradually climbing into
daybreak.

As we get into today, expect another hot day across ENC, though
slightly less humid. Expecting highs to get into the mid to
upper 90s across inland zones and low 90s along the coast and
OBX. Dewpoints will remain in the 70s generally east of Hwy 17
as we mix rather efficiently across the NW`rn Coastal Plain
allowing for dewpoints in the 60s here. Overall this will result
in heat indices reaching 105-110F across Duplin County NE`wards
to Dare County with heat indices closer to 95-104 to the north
and west of these zones. As a result have kept the previously
issued Heat Advisory in place with just the far NW`rn counties
not in a heat advisory today. Drier conditions expected today
and Friday with WSW flow aloft limited upper level forcing but
could see isolated showers and thunderstorms along the sea
breeze during the afternoon and evening hours each day. Have
kept SChc PoPs in the forecast today to account for this low end
threat.

SW flow will bring increasing low level thicknesses, warming
temperatures, and a High Heat Risk across the region on Friday
with highs reaching the mid to upper 90s inland and lower 90s
for coastal areas south of Oregon Inlet. Heat Indices are
expected to climb to around 100-110 once again Fri afternoon
generally in the same areas that are seeing heat advisories
today so another heat advisory for Fri across portions of ENC
can`t be completely ruled out. There is some uncertainty with
the dewpoint forecast Fri afternoon, especially inland, as some
guidance brings deeper mixing allowing dewpoints to drop well
into the 60s inland from the coast, which could keep heat
indices from reaching advisory criteria. Temps have trended down
slightly for Saturday with most of the area remaining in a
Moderate Heat Risk.

KEY MESSAGE 2...An upper level trough/mid level shortwave and
surface front approaching from the north and west this weekend
will increase shower and thunderstorm chances Saturday and
Sunday across ENC. Latest trends is for the front to approach
our northern zones Saturday evening and push through the area
Sun morning. This would act to bring best precip chances to ENC
Sat afternoon and overnight with chances then waning through the
day Sun from north to south. While instability has trended down,
generally ranging from 1000-2000 J/kg of ML CAPE Sat and
750-1500 J/kg of ML CAPE Sun, with greater upper level support
and deep layer shear values closer to 25-30 kts this weekend
across ENC, could see a few stronger storms this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Will continue to see a mix of patchy fog and low stratus across
portions of the Coastal Plain over the next 1-2 hours with a
mix of MVFR/LIFR conditions currently noted across ISO/PGV and
adjacent areas as of this update. Leftover fog/stratus quickly
dissipates around 12/13Z today with VFR conditions then forecast
for Thursday and Thurs night. There will be an isolated chance
at some storms Thurs afternoon with the sea breeze. SW winds
will gust around 20 kt Thurs afternoon before easing Thurs
night.

Outlook (Friday through Monday): Mainly iso to widely sct
activity expected Friday with a lower threat for sub-VFR
conditions. However, as we get into the weekend as an upper
level trough and associated surface front approaches increasing
chances for showers and storms as well as sub-VFR conditions
will be noted. Could see improving conditions on Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Not much change in the forecast since the previous update as a
stalled frontal boundary located across the area has begun to
lift N`wards this morning. A few isolated to widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms are noted across our waters this
morning but this activity should quickly exit the region by mid
morning as the front lifts north of ENC.

Seeing widespread 5-10 kt winds varying from E north of the
front to to SSW south of the front across the waters this
morning with 2-4 ft seas across our coastal waters. Expect light
winds and low seas to persist through the morning today.
However, as we get into the afternoon hours expect the thermal
trough to develop tightening the pressure gradient and
resulting in SW`rly winds increasing to around 15-25 kt with
gusts up to 30 kt with seas building to 4-7 ft. Winds will be
strongest across the Pamlico Sound and coastal waters and have
kept SCA`s for these areas while also adding the coastal waters
from Oregon Inlet north to Duck. Winds relax briefly Friday
morning, but then tighten again Friday afternoon as a front
approaches from the NW with SCA conditions expected to redevelop
over the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet.

Outlook (Saturday through Monday): Once again not much change in
the forecast as conditions gradually improve Saturday, then
will see a backdoor cold front drop through the waters late
Saturday night and Sunday with winds becoming NE around 10-20 kt
with seas building to 3-5 ft. A weak area of low pressure may
form along the stalled front to the south Monday keeping E-NEly
flow across the waters.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for NCZ045>047-080-081-090-092-094-193>196-198-199-
     203>205.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ195-196-
     199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT
     Friday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Friday
     for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT
     Saturday for AMZ152-154-156.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT
     Saturday for AMZ158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RCF
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...RCF