Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

705
FXUS62 KMHX 110644
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
244 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
SCA dropped from the waters south of Ocracoke Inlet. Remainder
of forecast remains on track.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Above normal temperatures will prevail through the next week
with the potential for record breaking temperatures next Tuesday
through Friday.

2) Worsening drought and fire weather conditions anticipated
over the next 7 days with no rainfall forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Temps will be 5-10 degrees above normal
today (reaching into the low to mid 80s along and south of
Highway 70) ahead of a backdoor front that will push through
mid to late afternoon. Albemarle Peninsula and northern OBX will
not have as much time to warm, only reaching the 70s. The front
will likely be dry with a dearth of moisture to work with, but
a small minority of guidance suggests an isolated shower threat
in the afternoon, mainly from the coastal plain westward where
some modest instability will be present.

Temps will be around 5 degrees cooler Sunday with sfc high
pressure to the north bringing easterly flow across the region,
but still above normal away from the coast. The high the migrates
off the Mid-Atlantic coast late Sunday and persists through the
week while upper ridging builds over the Southeast bringing a
significant warm up and a prolonged period of near record
breaking temperatures. Temperatures inland are forecast in the
upper 80s Tuesday and peak in the lower 90s Wednesday extending
into Friday. Deterministic NBM looks reasonable when compared to
low-level thickness analysis, but this also sits at or just
below the 25th percentile of the probabilistic NBM. Thus, there
is some room for forecast temps to trend higher over the coming
days.

There remains some spread on whether a backdoor front on Friday
will make it across the area, but given the strength of the
ridge pattern recognition points to this boundary stalling
before reaching ENC. Forecast highs for Friday have trended a
couple degrees higher as more guidance shifts towards this
scenario. Record highs will be challenged most days next week -
see the CLIMATE section for details.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Worsening drought conditions are likely
through the foreseeable future with no rain in the forecast
through next week. The forecast area remains in a Severe Drought
(D2), with some pockets of Extreme Drought (D3) emerging over
the northern NC coastal plain. Precipitation deficits over the
last 60 days range from 3-6 inches, which will only increase in
the upcoming rain-free week. Growing vegetation and leaf out
will only increase the strain on ground water in the coming
weeks. While the forecast currently has conditions not meeting
criteria for fire danger statements, the very dry conditions
will continue to bring an elevated threat for wildfires. The
NCFS continues a statewide burn ban until further notice.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR flight cats expected through the period. Light SWerly winds
overnight could be calm at times and shallow patchy fog may
develop, but think TAF sites should remain unaffected, best
chances E of coastal TAF sites. A backdoor front will push
through the terminals late Sat morning and early afternoon,
veering winds through the day; Nerly midday, Eerly in the
evening. SKC persists through the overnight and start of the day
with SCT clouds developing at or above FL060 associated with
FROPA.

Outlook: Pred VFR conditions expected through the period with a
more summertime pattern taking shape Sunday into early next
week.

&&

.MARINE...
Regional observations show predominantly west to southwesterly
winds this morning at 5-10 kt ahead of an approaching backdoor
cold front currently migrating across VA this hour. Winds will
remain westerly ahead of the front, quickly veering
northeasterly to easterly late this afternoon into the evening
hours. There is a signal for a brief but notable uptick in winds
immediately behind the front with isolated gusts to 25 kt
possible. This occurrence will be short lived and therefore new
SCAs were not issued for soundside locations.

Offshore, seas remain elevated at 4-7 feet along and north of
Cape Hatteras. Conditions will be slow to improve especially
with the uptick of winds associated with the frontal passage,
and therefore left SCAs here up through Sun morning.

Outlook: Largely benign boating conditions expected next week,
although with a spring heatwave on the horizon strengthening
thermal gradient winds could near 25 kt at times during the
overnight hours and nudge seas near 6 feet.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for 4/14 (Tuesday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        89/1948   (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   80/1994   (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      93/1922   (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   80/1996   (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         99/1930   (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    88/1977   (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 4/15 (Wednesday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        94/1972   (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   84/1922   (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      96/1922   (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   80/1964   (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         92/1941   (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    93/2006   (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 4/16 (Thursday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        92/1972   (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   78/1994   (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      92/1972   (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   82/2006   (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         92/2006   (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    91/1972   (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ152-154.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SK/MS
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...SK/MS