Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

834
FXUS62 KMHX 041914
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
314 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes since the previous update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unsettled weather pattern persists through Wednesday as
multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms impact ENC bringing
a low end flash flooding risk.

2) Return to a more typical summertime pattern Thursday onwards.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...There is little change in the synoptic setup as
an upper level trough currently in the Tennessee River Valley
has stalled across the area and will remain there into midweek
before weakening and eventually getting absorbed by a passing
northern stream trough late Wed into Thurs. This should keep
the moisture channel open from the Gulf into at least midweek as
upper level southerly winds remain in place advecting moisture
northwards. A few shortwaves will transit around the base of
the upper trough and lift north through the Carolinas through
Wed. As the upper trough dissipates/gets absorbed later this
week, any mid level forcing shifts farther inland away from ENC.

A stagnant surface front to our west will move little before
dissipating on Wed. Given moist, southerly flow across the
region combined with high PWATs (2.3+ inches), any thunderstorms
that do form have the potential to produce heavy rainfall. Any
addition areas where localized flash flooding could occur are
confined to areas along the Crystal Coast and along the OBX
south of Oregon Inlet.

KEY MESSAGE 2...By late week the area returns to climo or below
climo PoPs as a lack of mid level shortwaves or significant
forcing will be noted across Eastern NC. This will likely
result in daily chances for showers and thunderstorms along the
sea-breeze, but once again these chances should be isolated at
best given the overall setup. After a cool start to the week
temperatures begin to rebound back into the upper 80s to low
90s inland and mid 80s along the OBX.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mostly MVFR conditions will persist across Eastern NC this
afternoon due to showers and isolated thunderstorms. Given
potential for heavier showers this afternoon, have included
TEMPO -TSRA at IFR levels but with medium confidence.
Otherwise, moist southerly flow continues across the area which
may support shallow fog development tonight. Have capped at 5SM
but if winds can sufficiently decouple late, fog and low stratus
may become a greater concern before sunrise.

Outlook (Wednesday through Saturday): Periods of sub-VFR
ceilings/vis are possible Wednesday with a chances for showers
and thunderstorms with a stalled upper trough off to the west.
Precip chances and thus the threat for sub-VFR conditions look
to decrease beyond Wed and into the weekend as high pressure
builds into the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas continue to subside this afternoon as a stalled
front to our west has continued to weaken with high pressure
ridging building into the area. Ongoing S-SW winds at 10-15 kts
and seas 2-4 ft are noted across across the coastal waters. As
the aforementioned front gradually dissipates today and high
pressure ridging builds farther over the area, winds and seas
will remain sub-SCA, with SSW winds 5-10 kts and seas 2-4 ft
through tonight.

Outlook (Wednesday through Saturday): Expect more benign winds
and seas for the period as high pressure remains the dominant
feature across the region. Winds generally remain below 15 kts
and seas persist around 2-4 ft into the weekend.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-199-204-205.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DAG/RJ
AVIATION...DAG/RJ
MARINE...DAG/RJ