Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

216
FXUS62 KMHX 101137
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
637 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Frost advisory continues overnight across the Coastal Plain.
Aviation Disco updated for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Frost concerns overnight and Tue morning. Gradual warm up
with dry conditions through mid week.

2) Approaching storm system near the end of the week will bring
well below normal temperatures, breezy conditions, and a chance
of rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Tonight still looks like the best candidate so
far for fairly widespread frost, especially west of NC 17 as
skies remain clear and winds inland will likely be calm with
high pressure building overhead tonight. As is typical in these
environments, deterministic guidance for lows is not aggressive
enough, so blended in NBM 10th percentile and the previous
forecast to keep forecast lows into the mid to upper 30s. Could
see a few well sheltered areas make a run towards the low 30s
but this should be rather isolated. Frost Advisory continues
for areas along and west of Hwy 17 overnight. Tuesday night is
forecast to remain slightly warmer as high cirrus is forecast to
stream into ENC from the west preventing good radiational
cooling Tue night limiting frost potential. So while it is
unlikely tomorrow night it`s not completely out of the question
for inland sheltered spots.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Not much has changed with this weekends system
as there remains good agreement amongst guidance for
increasingly unsettled weather across the eastern CONUS. A
complex mid-level low will deepen over the region and steer
multiple shortwaves over the Mid-Atlantic. While there are still
some differences in exact details that will need to be hashed
out in the coming days it remains likely that a complex low will
sweep across the Ohio River Valley and Mid-Atlantic Wed into
Thursday with a coastal low developing off the Mid-Atlantic
coast Thurs into Friday with this coastal low then deepening
offshore as it meanders around the the Northeast this weekend
though its intensity and track remain uncertain. Probabilistic
guidance favors a northern track for these areas of low
pressure, which would keep heavier precipitation away from our
area though isolated to widely scattered showers wouldn`t be out
of the question. Either way not expecting much QPF from any
shower that impacts the area Thurs into Fri before we dry out.

The biggest threat with this aforementioned low will be the
associated gusty winds. In general, probabilities for a period
of 20-30 mph W-NW winds and gusts potentially in excess of
35-45 mph Fri into Sat remain high. If this is realized, at
least some coastal flooding concerns could arise soundside along
the Outer Banks. Given spread of guidance, it is too early to
state the potential magnitude of impacts. Stay tuned for future
updates.

Behind the system, unseasonably cool air will flood into the
area knocking highs down into the 50s for the weekend and offer
the first real opportunity for a freeze Sat night and Sun night.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 0630est...Strong radiational cooling overnight with clear
skies and light to calm winds has led to shallow patchy fog and
possibly some patchy frost in typical sheltered/cold spots.
Some obs are reporting IFR or lower but the obs that have
cameras suggest the lower VIS only occurs when a tuft of the
shallow fog lines up with the sensor opposed to the whole
airfield being socked in. Have included prevailing 6sm MIFG for
obs that are or have reported BR and TEMPO IFR or lower
mentions to cover the bounce. Any flight restrictions end once
the lower level moisture burns off in another hr or so.
Increasing high clouds expected this afternoon. Patchy fog will
again be possible Tue night/Wed morning with winds potentially
going calm around midnight, but the increased cloud coverage
will put a damper on overnight cooling, keeping any fog out of
the TAFs at this time.

Outlook: Mainly VFR conditions are forecast through Wed as high
pressure and a much drier airmass remain in place, but shallow
patchy fog will remain possible if winds go calm. Approaching
storm system at the end of the week brings an increase in shower
chances, some gusty winds, and increased chances of sub- VFR
conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure has begun to build in from the west behind a
departing surface trough giving way to light winds and subsiding
seas overnight and early Tue. Latest obs show variable winds
5-10 kt with seas mainly 2-4 ft, 3-5 ft further offshore. Light
winds becoming SW 5-15 kt this afternoon with seas 2-4 ft.

Outlook: Decent boating conditions expected through Wednesday.
Attention then turns to a coastal low likely to develop off the
Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday. Although magnitude of impacts
remains uncertain, trend has been for stronger winds and the
probability for strong SCA and Gales remains elevated,
especially for the waters from Raleigh Bay north. Timing and
intensity remains a point of uncertainty, so mariners are
encouraged to continue monitoring future forecasts.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Frost Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for NCZ029-044-079-
     080-090>092-193-198.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CQD/RCF
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...CQD/RCF