Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

402
FXUS62 KMHX 280700
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
300 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Began SCA for the quickly building seas early this morning.

Increased fog coverage and intensity for wrn coastal plain
counties through this morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) King Tides will bring the potential for continued minor
coastal flooding through Thursday.

2) Warming temps to above climo mid to late week with continued
dry conditions. Small rain chances late Sunday into beginning
of the work week.

Marine: Elevated seas will cont the SCA conditions through
Thursday evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Quasi stationary high pres sprawling across the
Mid- Atlantic and low pressure well off the FL coast will
result in cont northeasterly flow across the region today. The
high waves combined with King Tides this week will lead to
additional minor coastal flooding impacts on the OBX.

For Hatteras Island, seas offshore are in the ~6 foot range,
but the long period swells will continue to cause issues for
vulnerable areas. For ocean-side: high tide is around 0900 AM
EDT today. The National Parks Service and NCDOT have reported
substantial beach erosion from south Nags Head to Buxton, along
with significant overwash occurring on side streets in Rodanthe.
Due to hazardous road conditions and flooding, NC-12 remains
closed from the Marc Basnight Bridge to Rodanthe.

Minor coastal flooding of vulnerable locations will be likely
well into this week despite the diminishing of winds, with
"sunny day" flooding across much of the tidal regions of
coastal ENC around times of high tide, then slowly improve as
the King Tides ease later in the week and into the weekend.
Coastal flood advisories continue through the high tide cycle on
Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Quasi stationary dry high pres cont to sprawl
across the region. Weak coastal troughing offshore could bring
a few showersto mainly OBX/Downeast today, but most areas
remain rain-free, albeit with mo cloudy skies today. Late week
into the weekend, hts/thicknesses build further, and temps
climbing back to ~10 degrees above climo with highs upr 70s to
near 80 inland to low 70s OBX. Low temps will warm above climo
as well with readings in the mid 50s for most locales away from
the immediate coast.

High pres ridge may begin to break down as early as Sunday, but
recent runs from EC/AIFS cont to keep a stronger high in place.
May have to wait until a stronger srn stream system sweeps
across the Deep South and into the region later in the week to
see next good chance for appreciable rain. For now, pops remain
quite low for late Sun into Mon ~30% to account for the small
shower chances.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A moistening northeast to east low-level flow atop a cool
boundary layer is expected through early morning which is a
favorable setup for low stratus and FG development. Guidance is
mixed on whether stratus or FG will be the dominant source of
sub-VFR conditions. Another tricky feature that makes for
uncertainty in the LIFR fog/low stratus is an area of VFR strato
cu that is advecting eastward off the Atlantic. These clouds
would act to limit the LIFR/IFR later tonight into the morning
Wed, and have trimmed back on ending time of LIFR early this
morning. 4k ft stratus deck may linger for much of the day today.
A few non-impactful showers or sprinkles are possible esp for
coastal locales today, but shouldn`t amount to much at all.
Winds will cont light nerly today.

Outlook (Thu through Sun): Expect VFR conditions to continue
during the daytime through at least Sun with quasi- stationary
high pres over the region. Coastal sections could see ocnl MVFR
STCU at times with flow cont off the Atlantic, as well as bouts
of overnight fg and low stratus with winds quite calm the next
several nights.

&&

.MARINE...
4-6 ft seas for the waters south of Oregon Inlet are expected to
continue through Thur evening before swells finally subside for
a time. Winds today will ramp up to 15-25 kt for the coastal
waters s of Oregon Inlet as well.

Outlook (Thu through Sun): Winds/seas diminish by Thu evening,
though respite may be rather short-lived, as building seas
are possible once again later in the weekend into early next
week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ195-196-
     199-203>205.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ196-
     203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Thursday night for
     AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TL/RJ
AVIATION...TL
MARINE...TL/RJ