Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

093
FXUS62 KMHX 120643
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
243 AM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes from the previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Above normal temperatures will prevail through the entire
week with the potential for record breaking temperatures Tuesday
through Friday.

2) Worsening drought and fire weather conditions anticipated
over the next 7 days with no rainfall forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Yesterday`s cold front is fully across eastern
NC this morning with high pressure gradually building in behind
it from the north. With cool northeast to easterly onshore flow
behind the boundary, temps will run about 5 degrees lower today
compared to yesterday but still somewhat above average for mid-
April. The surface high will migrate and then anchor off the
mid-Atlantic coast tonight into tomorrow. When coupled with a
persistent mid-level ridge and persistent southwesterly flow,
stage will be set for a considerable warm-up through the week as
temps climb into the 90s inland. The current forecast remains
at the 25th percentile of NBM probabilistic guidance, but the
spread to the 75-90th percentile has narrowed considerably to
just a few degrees. Still, there remains some wiggle room for
forecast temps to trend a degree or two higher over the coming
days. Records will likely be challenged for much of the week -
see the CLIMATE section for statistics.

There remains some spread on whether a backdoor front on Friday
will make it across the area, but given the strength of the
ridge pattern recognition points to this boundary stalling
before reaching ENC. 00z guidance suite has trended closer to a
solution stalling the front across southern Virginia, and
forecast highs have trended higher once again into the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Worsening drought conditions are likely through
the foreseeable future with no rain in the forecast through
this week. The forecast area remains in a Severe Drought (D2),
with some pockets of Extreme Drought (D3) emerging over the
northern NC coastal plain. Precipitation deficits over the last
60 days range from 3-6 inches, which will only increase in the
upcoming rain-free week. Growing vegetation and leaf out will
only increase the strain on ground water in the coming weeks.
While the forecast currently has conditions not meeting criteria
for fire danger statements, the very dry conditions will
continue to bring an elevated threat for wildfires. The NCFS
continues a statewide burn ban until further notice.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Pred VFR conditions expected through the period. Cold front has
pushed through the area last evening and all guidance continues
to show winds staying up enough to keep the low levels mixed.
With that said, a number of sites are either currently or have
decoupled within the last few hours, and places that do have
some wind are 4kt or less. The This opens up the door for
fog development which has already been seen up in mainland Dare
co. Very limited number of model solutions that are capturing
this well, as most keep winds up, and the ones that are showing
this transient fog show VIS less than 1mi as the pocket of
moisture and lower winds works from NE to SW across ENC. I have
used this guidance as a footprint but have kept the VIS higher.
Went with prevailing minor fog mention for the early morning
hours across all TAF sites save for ISO. Coastal sites, where
Tds are higher, have gone with IFR TEMPO groups and an MVFR
TEMPO group for PGV. Don`t think fog will be an issue at ISO as
sun will be rising with the area of greatest fog potential still
lying E of this terminal. Sunday, expect SCT high clouds and
E-SE winds to 5-10 kt with gusts to 15 kt.

Outlook: Pred VFR conditions expected through the period with a
more summertime pattern taking shape next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Seas remain stubbornly elevated across the central waters this
morning with northeast to easterly winds remaining at around
10-15 kt behind yesterday`s backdoor cold front. Winds will
remain at around 10 kt through the day but gradually veer
southeasterly tonight and then southwesterly by tomorrow morning
as high pressure shifts and then anchors offshore, in a typical
warm season regime. SCA remains for central waters into the
afternoon hours in persistent northeasterly swell.

Outlook: Largely benign boating conditions expected next week,
although with a spring heatwave on the horizon strengthening
thermal gradient winds could near 25 kt at times during the
overnight hours and nudge seas near 6 feet.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for 4/14 (Tuesday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        89/1948   (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   80/1994   (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      93/1922   (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   80/1996   (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         99/1930   (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    88/1977   (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 4/15 (Wednesday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        94/1972   (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   84/1922   (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      96/1922   (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   80/1964   (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         92/1941   (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    93/2006   (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 4/16 (Thursday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        92/1972   (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   78/1994   (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      92/1972   (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   82/2006   (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         92/2006   (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    91/1972   (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ152-
     154.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MS
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...MS