Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

471
FXUS62 KMHX 061858
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
158 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Higher confidence in scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday
and into early next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dense fog threat will return along the coast this morning,
and then likely return for the next few overnight periods
through the weekend.

2) Well above normal to near record conditions expected
through early next week with high pressure ridging offshore.

Aviation...Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions expected late this
evening into Saturday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Fog inland has quickly given way to a more
summertime like pattern of an advancing sea breeze and
developing cumulus fields, although sea fog remains stubbornly
persistent especially along the immediate Crystal Coast and the
Outer Banks. These visibilities may occasionally bleed onto the
immediate coast, but will not penetrate far enough inland to
necessitate Dense Fog advisories today.

Across the north, a weak backdoor cold front is attempting to
push southwards towards the Albemarle Peninsula and northern
Outer Banks with a healthy bank of low stratus and fog following
behind it. Guidance generally agrees on this front getting hung
up just north of the Albemarle Sound, but if it does manage to
migrate farther south foggy conditions could return to the
northern Outer Banks later this afternoon.

A similar pattern will continue into the weekend, and sea fog
will likely persist in some fashion into Sunday morning. The
strongest signal for widespread inland fog is for tonight with
Tds at their highest and winds still expected to be light.
Expect the most widespread areas of fog to develop at night,
especially after midnight, and fog could extend inland from the
coast at times.

KEY MESSAGE 2...An anomalously strong ridge remain in place over
the southeastern CONUS into early next week. This will bring
near record temperatures possible for some inland zones during
the afternoons, especially through this weekend (see Climate
Section below). Highs will reach the upper 70s/low 80s generally
along and west of US 17, and upper 60s/low 70s closer to the
coast.

A weak front will enter the Carolinas Sunday and hang around
through Monday, leading to the development of scattered showers
and thunderstorms. This will keep temps a couple of degrees
cooler, but still well above normal. Confidence in rainfall has
increased with PoPs now categorical, although rainfall amounts
do not look to exceed half an inch. After this front lifts back
to the north, potentially even warmer conditions are likely to
develop by mid next week ahead of a large frontal system.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
There are two important aviation impacts that we will be
monitoring over the next 24 hours. The first is a cold front
that is currently sliding south along the Northern OBX. Upstream
obs in SE Virginia have shown significant drops in CIGs and
VIS, with IFR/LIFR conditions ongoing there. Similar conditions
are expected for runways along the Northern OBX for at least a
few hours late this afternoon into early this evening. The front
will also be accompanied by a NE/E wind shift. The front is
expected to stall, and not make it much further south than the
Northern OBX.

Attention then turns to BR/FG/low CIGs later this evening into
Saturday morning. The overall pattern is very similar to the
past couple of days, and the TAFs reflect the expectation for
widespread IFR/LIFR conditions in stratus and FG. Of note,
guidance shows a higher probability of LIFR conditions tonight
compared to last night. VFR conditions are expected to return by
14-15z on Saturday.

LIFR PROBABILITY (06z-13z Saturday)

KEWN: 70-90%
KPGV: 60-80%
KOAJ: 70-90%
KISO: 60-80%

Outlook: A cold front will move into the area on Sunday,
leading to a change in the weather pattern, but also bringing
with it an increased risk of SHRA and TSRA. This risk may linger
into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
SEA FOG: Sea fog has been slow to erode across the coastal
waters from Cape Hatteras south through Surf City. Because of
this, the Marine Dense Fog Advisory has been extended out
through 3pm. We`ll continue to re-evaluate this potential
through the afternoon. Sea fog may also redevelop across the
northern waters as a backdoor cold front struggles to push
southward towards the Albemarle Peninsula.

A similar pattern will continue tonight, and sea fog will
likely persist, or redevelop, in some fashion into Sunday
morning. Expect the most widespread areas of fog to develop at
night, especially after midnight.

WINDS/SEAS: Pleasant boating conditions are expected (outside of
fog) for the next couple of days with high pressure offshore.
Winds will be SSW/SW at 5-15 kts and seas 3-5 ft.

Outlook: The pressure gradient will tighten Sunday and into
early next week as a front move into the area, and winds/seas
will approach Small Craft criteria for portions of the marine
area. A stronger front may cross the region in the middle of
next week, although significant timing and intensity differences
remain.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for 03/06 (Friday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern      85/1961  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 76/1992  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville    84/1961  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 74/1992  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston       85/1976  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville  82/1961  (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 03/07 (Saturday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern      89/1974  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 74/2022  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville    84/1961  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 74/1991  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston       86/1908  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville  85/1974  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ152-
     154-156-158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SGK/MS
AVIATION...RM/RCF
MARINE...RM/SGK/MS