Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

953
FXUS62 KMHX 140625
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
225 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All marine headlines have been expired.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Brief reprieve from the dangerous heat through today, then
hot and humid conditions return through the rest of the week

2) Unsettled pattern expected to return by this weekend,
including the next risk of strong to severe thunderstorms

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Weak low pressure off the coast of NC will
gradually shift away from the area today, but with a not-as-hot
northeasterly flow lingering for one more day. We should see
more sunshine by this afternoon which will help boost highs into
the mid to upper 80s, which is near or slightly below normal
for mid-July.

After today, southerly flow returns for the rest of the week.
This will support warming temperatures, rising humidity, and an
increasing heat risk. The heat risk is expected to peak
Thursday- Sunday, although the return of a more convectively
active pattern may hold the heat risk down some, especially from
Sunday into early next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Deterministic, ensemble, and machine learning
guidance continue to show a strong signal for a more
convectively active pattern returning by the weekend, and
potentially continuing into next week. Additionally, machine
learning and analog guidance suggest a pattern that is also
favorable for strong to severe convection. This is supported by
deterministic guidance, especially Saturday-Monday. PWATs are
forecast to rise back above 2" as well, suggesting a pattern
favorable for heavy rain and potentially some hydro concerns.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Recent guidance have trended less pessimistic regarding the
potential for sub-VFR CIGs overnight. The potential still
appears to exist, but the 06z TAFs have been adjusted to reflect
a lowered risk of IFR conditions. It`s entirely possible that
some sites may not even get down to MVFR. We`ll continue to
closely monitor trends through the night in case IFR/MVFR
becomes more likely. Otherwise, SHRA and TSRA activity should
mostly stay offshore through the night, but may develop inland
towards KEWN/KOAJ for a short time before drier air moves in
from the north by the afternoon. Of note, if sufficient clearing
occurs Tuesday night, the setup appears favorable for BR/FG
development, potentially with a risk of IFR/LIFR conditions.

Outlook (Wednesday through Saturday): A drier and more muted
TSRA pattern is expected Wednesday and Thursday. Eventually, a
more active TSRA pattern should develop by the end of the week
and into the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure south of ENC will gradually weaken and shift away
from the area today. Until then, a modest east to northeast wind
of 10- 15kt will continue today. Winds lay down tonight to
around 5-10kt. Seas of 3-6ft this morning will gradually lay
down to 2-4ft by tonight.

Outlook (Wednesday through Saturday): Southerly flow continues
on into the upcoming weekend, steadily building each day. Winds
are expected to peak over the weekend along with elevated seas.
The next opportunity for marine headlines is expected with the
building winds and seas this weekend. A more active thunderstorm
pattern is expected over the weekend as well.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ196-203>205.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RM
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...RM