Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

467
FXUS62 KMHX 281132
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
732 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Marine conditions continue to improve and have allowed the SCA
to expire for the Pamlico Sound and coastal waters south of
Ocracoke Inlet.

Latest guidance has trended farther north with the low pressure
system this weekend bringing increased precipitation chances.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A progressive pattern continues this week with additional
opportunities for rain mid week and again this weekend. There
is a Marginal Risk of Severe Thunderstorms with the mid week
system.

Marine: Elevated seas will continue to bring SCA conditions
across the coastal waters north of Ocracoke Inlet into
tonight. Low end SCA conditions possible Wednesday night into
early Thursday for portions of the coastal waters.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A progressive pattern will continue through the
week with another low pressure system progged to push across
the area late Wednesday followed by another southern stream
system potentially impacting the area next weekend.

Upper ridging over the area today will weaken as dampening
shortwave energy approaches the area. Associated low pressure
will lift north of the Great Lakes with a trailing cold front
pushing into the Ohio River Valley today. Showers and
thunderstorms moving into the Appalachians early this morning
will push into the piedmont but will dissipate as they approach
ENC as forcing weakens. Will see increasing clouds this
afternoon but most guidance keeps ENC dry today, although a few
do bring light QPF this afternoon. With the sub-cloud layer
remaining very dry do not expect more than a few sprinkles at
most and continue to PoPs below mentionable.

Another low will pass north of the area Wednesday lifting a
warm front through the morning hours with the trailing cold
front pushing across the area Wednesday night. A high
shear/modest CAPE environment will be in place ahead of the
front that could produce strong to severe thunderstorms across
the region. 0-6km bulk shear progged to be around around 40 kt,
however instability is a bit more uncertain with global models
showing mainly around 500-1000 J/Kg, although some HiRes models
are over 1000 J/Kg. Current forecast sides with the development
of OVC skies associated with the warm front, but there still
remains a chance of at least some partial clearing later in the
day ahead of the cold front, which could allow some of the
higher CAPEs advertised to come to fruition. SPC has the region
in a Marginal Risk of severe storms for Wednesday (level 1 of
5). Best forcing will be north of the area and most guidance
keeps precip amounts around a quarter inch, however could see
higher amounts in thunderstorms.

Run to run consistency among the models continues to be poor
for the system next weekend, however 00z guidance has trended a
bit farther north with the low, now tracking off the NC coast.
Given the inconsistency, confidence remains low in the forecast
details, but it is an encouraging trend. While rainfall amounts
through the week will not have much impact with alleviating the
drought, hopefully precipitation and higher humidities will
help reduce the wildfire threat across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions will persist through the day with light and
variable winds and SCT/BKN mid and high clouds increasing
through the day.

Outlook (Wednesday through Saturday): Another front and weak
low may bring sub VFR with some showers and isolated storms Wed
afternoon through evening, exiting Wed night with a return to
VFR through the rest of the work week. Winds generally in the
5-15 kt range through the period. Another low pressure system
may bring widespread rain for the weekend and a return to sub
VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Current observations showing N to NE winds around 15 kt or less
with seas around 3-6 ft. Winds will become variable today as
high pressure transits the area, becoming southerly late tonight
but should remain less than 15 kt. Seas will continue to slowly
subside through tonight becoming 2-5 ft by late tonight allow
for the SCA to end for the waters north of Ocracoke Inlet.

Outlook: A low pressure system is progged to pass north of the
area Wednesday night and could see low end SCA conditions over
the nearshore coastal waters S of Oregon Inlet redevelop late
Wednesday afternoon night into Thursday. Another low pressure
system may pass across or just south of the waters late in the
week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ152-154.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SK
AVIATION...TL
MARINE...SK