Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

235
FXUS62 KMHX 030735
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
335 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Decreased QPF a bit for Monday. Adjusted PoPs based on radar and
model trends.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unsettled weather pattern persists into mid week as multiple
rounds of showers and thunderstorms impact ENC bringing a low end
flash flooding risk.

Marine: SCA conditions continue into Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Latest mid level water vapor imagery shows an upper level
trough currently stalling across the Ohio River Valley and into
the Tennessee River Valley and this will be our main weather
maker for the next few days. This will keep S to SW`rly flow
aloft which will continue to advect in ample moisture from the
Gulf and this will also result in several mid level shortwaves
transiting around the base of this trough and across the
Carolinas. A shortwave is tracking across the area this morning
with yet another forecast to track across the area on Tue. At
the surface, closed low looks to be over the Great Lakes region
as it slowly shifts NC and becomes separated from the parent
trough.

Here in ENC, a narrow, scattered line of convection with brief
heavy downpours is moving through the region along the
aforementioned shortwave, with stratiform rain behind it. In
the next 6 hours, This scattered band should push offshore with
additional convection near Charleston progressing NE`ward near
Cape Fear and approaching the CWA. There is uncertainty if the
storms near Charleston keep their structure through time due we
have CIN developing with the light rain spreading over ENC right
now and the shortwave over SC weakening as it approaches NC.

With the more progressive nature of the scattered line moving
through ENC and lighter, stratiform rain behind it, flash
flooding potential has gone down drastically in the next 3
hours. While the environment is very favorable with PWATs over
2.2" and long, skinny CAPEs, the lack of substantial forcing and
shear has thrown a wrench in the flooding potential. Have
decided to keep the Flood Watch in effect until 5 PM despite
the reduced potential, as it will only take one boundary in a
very messy regime to set up shop for torrential downpours and
localized flash flooding to occur. Have trended down in QPFs
with the decreased potential with this update, from 1-3" in the
flood watch area, to 1-1.5 inches. OBX from Oregon Inlet down to
Ocracoke has the benefit of being in closer proximity to the
gulf stream convection, so if any outflow or boundary shifts
westward over OBX, that could be a focus for persistent
convection later today.

This afternoon through mid-week there continue to be be daily
chances for heavy showers and thunderstorms. Seeing how this
morning is playing out, it seems like any additional shortwaves
along a weakening trough may not be enough to provide enough
storm coverage for flooding potential. However, as the trough
weakens in the coming days the sea breeze may become the
dominant forcing mechanism, and be the focus for minor flooding
potential going forward through mid-week.

We remain in a Slight (level 2/5) Excessive Rain Outlook for
today with best chances at seeing flash flooding likely along
Hwy 17 and points east. We are in a Marginal (level 1/5) ERO for
Tuesday for the entirety of eastern NC.

By the end of the week it looks like we return back to climo or
below climo PoPs as a lack of mid level shortwaves or
significant forcing will be noted across ENC though we do begin
to warm back up with temps returning to the upper 80s to low 90s
inland and mid 80s along the OBX.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Sub-VFR chances (MVFR to IFR ceilings) increase through the
morning further as low level moisture continues to build.
Coastal routes could see heavier bouts of showers early this
morning, further reducing VIS and CIG with these sub- VFR
conditions then persisting through much of Mon morning. Don`t
expect strong winds today outside of any convectively driven
gusts. VCTS once again as we build daytime heating by Mon
afternoon.

Outlook (Mon night through Friday): Periods of sub-VFR
ceilings/vis are possible into Wednesday as ENC enters into a
more unsettled period of weather with daily chances for showers
and thunderstorms with a stalled upper trough off to the west.
Precip chances and thus the threat for sub-VFR conditions look
to decrease beyond Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
No significant changes to the marine forecast as 15-25 kt S-SW
winds and gusts up to 25-30 kts are currently ongoing across our
waters this afternoon bringing small craft advisory conditions
to the area waters. Seas have peaked at to 5-9 ft across the
area along the coastal waters. Expect elevated winds and seas
to continue across our waters into the morning hours, gradually
easing through the day today. Winds forecast to fall to 10-15
kts with gusts up to 20 kts and seas falling back down to 3-5 ft
by Mon night ending the SCA threat for our waters. There is
still a threat of some low-end gusty winds, heavy rain, and
lightning with convection today.

Outlook (Monday night through Friday): Expect more benign winds
and seas from Tue onwards (5-10 kt winds and 2-4 ft seas) as
weak high pressure builds over the area. In addition to the
above, elevated chances for showers and thunderstorms will
remain possible into midweek.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for NCZ047-081-092-094-
     194>196-198-199-203>205.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Monday through Monday
     evening for NCZ195-196-199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for AMZ131-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ135-150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154-156-
     158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RCF/RJ
AVIATION...TL/RCF
MARINE...RCF/RJ