Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

372
FXUS62 KMHX 071932
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
332 PM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Winds have slightly increased over the weekend.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warming trend into the weekend, along with next chance for
rain, potentially heavy.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Warming low-level thicknesses, possibly aided
by a downsloping west to northwest low-level flow, should
support above normal temperatures on Thursday. The one caveat is
high clouds which may prevent highs from getting as warm as
low-level thickness values might otherwise suggest.

Beyond Thursday, the pattern begins to change as an upper level
ridge shifts east from the TN Valley to the Carolinas.
Meanwhile, a cutoff low is forecast to develop over east Texas.
The flow between these two features should help to steer TC
Isaias north through the Gulf and towards the Gulf Coast. The
latest forecast track from the NHC brings Isaias north through
the TN and OH Valleys Saturday and Sunday after making landfall
near the FL/AL coast. East of Isaias, a plume of tropical
moisture, with anomalous 2"+ PWATs, is forecast to surge north
through the Southeast U.S. this weekend. The moisture in tandem
with enhanced low-level convergence and strengthening WAA along
a developing warm front should support a period of moderate to
heavy rain late Saturday into Sunday across all of ENC. Guidance
continue to show a solid signal for 1-2.5" of rain across much
of the area. While the area average amounts haven`t changed
much, the higher end of available guidance has increased some.
Those higher end amounts (2-4") will likely be focused where
convection develops. Initially, this will likely be focused
along the coast, and for now this is where the greatest
potential exists for 2"+ amounts. The precipitation is expected
to trend more showery in nature later Sunday into Monday as the
better forcing shifts away from the area. 6hr Flash flood
guidance is around 2-4" for the areas of ENC that saw heavy
rainfall a few days ago, while the rest of the area is 4"+. With
area averages forecast to fall below these ranges, and over a
longer period of time, the risk of significant hydro impacts
appears low. That said, any convection that develops will be
capable of intense rainfall rates, with rate-driven flooding of
poor drainage and urban areas possible.

Of note, based on the latest guidance, and NHC track, the
remnants of Isaias may pass a bit closer than previously
forecast. While this doesn`t change the forecast significantly,
it does edge the stronger gradient (between the TC remnants and
a strong high offshore) east some. Because of this shift, winds
have increased some with this forecast. Along the coast, a
period of 30-40 mph wind gusts appears possible, especially
Saturday night into Sunday night.

One other potential hazard we will be watching is
thunderstorms. As mentioned previously, the greatest
instability, and risk of thunderstorms, is forecast to remain
offshore. However, the inland track of the remnants of Isaias
should put ENC in the warm sector on Sunday, and recent guidance
suggests an area of weak to moderate instability may develop
Sunday afternoon depending on the track and timing, cloudcover,
etc. While low- level forcing is in question, it`s a setup that
bears watching for a conditional severe thunderstorm risk.
Machine learning and EFI guidance have recently picked up on
this, and have trended higher with severe probs.

The remnants of Isaias are forecast to round the upper level
ridge and move off the Northern Mid-Atlantic Coast early next
week. Drier air then moves in behind it with a lower chance of
showers and thunderstorms by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecast confidence is high over the next 24 hours.

High pressure will remain anchored over, or near, ENC over the
next 24 hours, which will support light winds. Additionally, a
very dry airmass in place should limit low-mid level cloudcover.
All of this supports prevailing VFR conditions through the 18z
TAF cycle. The one caveat is the potential for MIFG/BR late
tonight into early Thursday morning. Cirrus clouds overhead,
plus the dry airmass, appear to be limiting factors for a
greater FG risk. However, outside of the high clouds, decent
radiational cooling conditions are expected tonight, so the
probability isn`t zero.

Outlook: Generally VFR conditions are expected to persist
through at least Friday. Conditions change over the weekend as
tropical moisture gets pulled north off the Gulf and into the
Carolinas. This will support periods of low CIGs, widespread RA,
and potentially a TSRA risk. Gusty southeast to south winds are
likely as well, especially Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Modest northeasterly winds of 10-15kt this afternoon are
expected to lay down to around 5-10kt by tonight as high
pressure edges closer to the area. With winds laying down, seas
are expected to hold in the 2-3ft range. Good boating conditions
then continue into Thursday.

Outlook: A modest northeasterly surge of wind is expected on
Friday as the gradient tightens across the area. Winds are
expected to build to 10-20kt during this time, but are currently
expected to stay below 25kt, and marine headlines appear
unlikely. Attention then turns to the weekend as the remnants of
TC Isaias move inland through the Gulf Coast States. While the
system is forecast to remain well west of ENC, the gradient will
further tighten between that system and a strong surface high
over New England. This is expected to support southeast to south
winds building to 20-30kt for most waters with higher gusts.
Marine headlines are likely from this weekend into early next
week. For most waters, this looks like a strong small craft
advisory type of event. For the outer coastal waters, winds may
be strong enough to support gale headlines. Winds are expected
to peak Saturday night into Monday morning. In addition to the
winds, seas are forecast to build to at least 6-8ft at 7-8s. A
warm front lifting north through the area appears supportive of
a risk of thunderstorms as well.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RM
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...RM