Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

354
FXUS62 KMHX 231209
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
709 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes made to the public forecast.

Remaining Gale Warnings for inside waters have been converted to
SCAs. Headlines for coastal waters remain unchanged.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rapidly deepening low pressure lifts northward today, leaving
cool but still breezy conditions in its wake. Low fire weather
concerns this afternoon.

2) Next front approaches the region late Thursday into Friday

Marine...Gale Warnings remain in effect for all but inland
rivers today. Gusty SW winds develop mid week ahead of
approaching front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Complex but deep mid-level trough continues to
swirl over the eastern CONUS this morning with rapidly deepening
low pressure lifting along the mid-Atlantic coast towards New
England. Skies have rapidly cleared in the low`s wake save for
the Outer Banks where low stratus lingers. Precipitation threat
has come to an end and today will be dry, although expect lower
clouds to fill back in into the afternoon hours. Some guidance
depicts development of very light rain over the far northeastern
Outer Banks in the afternoon as a secondary shortwave pivots
over the region, but odds of this are low (<10% probability) and
kept out of the forecast for now.

With such a strong low and expansive low, gusty winds will
remain present today. Wind Advisory is still slated to drop
after sunrise, but gusts up to 30-35 kt are expected to persist
well into tomorrow afternoon even for inland areas. This raises
some slight concern for fire weather issues as forecast RHs will
fall to around 30-35% in the afternoon, especially west of
Highway 17, and rainfall totals from today underperformed
sitting at well under a quarter inch in some spots. For now,
conditions too marginal to issue any relevant headlines.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The next rainmaker for our area arrives late
mid to late week as another cold front pushes across the
eastern CONUS while weak low pressure lifts across the mid-
Atlantic. Guidance is beginning to converge on timing, now
favoring Thursday night into Friday. Precipitation will be all
liquid with temps well into the 60s, with some limited thunder
potential confined closer to the coast. Probabilities of seeing
over a quarter inch of rain with this system are moderate
(60-70%), and low to moderate (30-40%) for a half inch. Given
the consistent under-performance of precipitation as of late
with ongoing drought conditions, these odds may be generous.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Main aviation concern through the TAF cycle will be strong WNWerly
winds. All TAF sites currently VFR, which is expected to persist
through the period. Gusty WNWerly winds through the day MON,
G20kt in am, G25-30kt midday. Some mid to lower level clouds
will sink from N to S over the Nern half of the FA midday before
being pulled off the coast as the low continues to depart.
Lowest cloud decks expected to remain AoA FL035 at the lowest.

Outlook: VFR persists through midweek. FROPA Thursday into Friday
will bring another round of precip, wind shifts, and SubVFR
flight cat potential.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong winds and elevated seas expected through today. Gale
Warnings remain in effect for all waters but the inland rivers
where SCA is now in effect.

Latest observations show winds have likely hit their peak, now
out of the northwest at around 25-35 kt with gusts up to 40-45
kt especially offshore. Seas have responded in kind, now rising
well above 10 feet especially along and north of Cape Hatteras.
Winds will slowly fall through today with all Gales likely
ending by midday, but SCA conditions will then likely extend
into Tue.

Outlook: Offshore waters likely to remain poor through late
next week as southwesterly winds increase ahead of an
approaching cold front forecast to cross late this week into the
weekend. Gale force winds possible along the Gulf Stream Wed,
with seas building to 5-10 ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for NCZ196-203>205.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for NCZ203.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for NCZ204-
     205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ136-
     137-230-231.
     Gale Warning until 11 AM EST this morning for AMZ150-152.
     Gale Warning until noon EST today for AMZ154-156-158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MS
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...MS