Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

902
FXUS62 KMHX 131900
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
200 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Removed thunder chances for all but the Outer Banks.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1) A low pressure system will bring widespread beneficial rain
Sunday through early Monday morning.

2) Well above normal temperatures are expected for inland areas
next week.

MARINE...Monitoring the potential for hazardous marine
conditions late Sunday through Monday

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A low pressure system will track E across the
Gulf states on Sunday and ENE and off the coast of the
Carolinas Sunday night/Monday. Most models continue with a low
track just south of ENC, keeping the region in the cool sector,
and thus limited thunder chances. Have trimmed back the 20%
thunder to just the OBX zones, as some elevated instability may
be advected in off the Gulf Stream, though most of ENC will
receive a stratiform very welcome soaking rain. Large- scale
forcing, with decent vorticity advection, along with above climo
PW`s, a general 1-1.5" inches of rain is expected for most of
ENC, with locally higher amounts closing in on 2" possible, best
chances for nearing 2" on the OBX. This will be a beneficial
rain for ENC with severe drought conditions across the coastal
plain and abnormally dry conditions along the coast.

Of note, a risk of sea fog may develop within the moistening return
flow ahead of Sunday`s system, though the window for that is
short, as while TD`s are moistening through the 30s on light
southwesterly winds late Sat night/early Sun morning, wind
direction will be veering around to the northeast through later
Sunday morning.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Swrly low-mid level flow beneath anomalous
ridging aloft should support an increased chance of above normal
temperatures for much of next week. For reference, normal highs
this time of year are in the upper 50s to low 60s, with normal
lows in the 30s. The Climate Prediction Center 6-10 day
temperature outlook now shows a 70-80% chance of above normal
temperatures, along with a good chance of below normal rainfall,
which may lead to some fire weather concerns.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours.
With high pressure overhead, winds are generally expected to be
light and variable.

Outlook: Sub VFR conditions are expected Sunday and Monday as
low pressure passes south of the area, bringing widespread RA,
low CIGs, and reduced VIS. A period of sea fog may develop late
Saturday night into Sunday morning, potentially impacting
runways near the Crystal Coast (KNJM, KMRH) with reduced VIS.

&&

.MARINE...
Good boating conditions will persist through Saturday. As the
high shifts offshore tomorrow, winds will back to the SW at 5-15
kt and seas will subside to 1-3 ft.

Sunday through Monday: A low moving near the coast of the
Carolinas late this weekend will bring hazardous marine
conditions starting Sunday evening. Strong winds over the Gulf
Stream may lend to Gale conditions here, both with strong srly
flow ahead of the low Sunday night, then strong nrly winds
behind the departing low on Monday. Elsewhere, SCA winds and
seas are expected. Some thunderstorms may accompany areas of
heavy rain over the Gulf waters south of C Hatteras on Sunday
night.

Of note, ahead of the low, moistening flow over cooler waters
could bring a period of sea fog concerns for the coastal waters
and inland sounds/rivers Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Tuesday through Wednesday: Winds and seas relax as low pressure
pulls away with general southwesterly breezes, but staying sub
SCA speeds.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TL
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...EH/RM/TL