Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

274
FXUS62 KMHX 071045
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
645 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Have introduced a heat advisory south of Beaufort and Pitt
County today.

Have updated the Aviation discussion.

Small Crafts Advisories have been cancelled.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Another warm and muggy day is on tap across ENC today.

2) A more active pattern persists into midweek, with showers
and storms expected each day, some of which could bring gusty
winds and heavy rain.

3) Another round of dangerously high heat and humidity builds
mid to late week into the weekend.

4) A very unstable atmosphere develops in tandem with the high
heat and humidity mid to late in the week, and could produce a
few strong to severe thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Warm and muggy this morning is the name of the
game with temps only getting down into the 70s to low 80s. A
rather similar setup across ENC for today as compared to
yesterday as weak upper ridging centered off the GA/FL coast
extends N towards ENC keeping the area under a hot airmass.
Temps across inland areas get into the mid 90s while temps along
the OBX get into the upper 80s this afternoon. At the same
time, expect dewpoints to remain around 75-80 with the highest
dewpoints noted directly behind the seabreeze today. This is
forecast to result in heat indices around 100-105F today across
much of ENC. While the seabreeze will likely kick off convection
once again today, much like yesterday think there is some time
for heat indices to reach heat advisory criteria prior to
thunderstorm initiation. Have issued a heat advisory mainly
along and south of Greene and Pamlico County today starting at
11AM as I have the highest confidence of reaching criteria here.
This foot print also follows the major heat risk footprint
pretty well. Will note an expansion could be needed this morning
like yesterday if we quickly heat up out ahead of thunderstorm
activity. Even if we dont reach explicit criteria it will be
hot and muggy today so make sure you are taking proper
precautions if headed outside for an extended time period
today.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Isolated showers noted across the OBX and the
offshore waters this morning and expect precip to continue to
wane in coverage through daybreak as yesterdays mid level
shortwave pushes further offshore. However, still expecting an
active precip pattern into Wed. An additional shortwave is
forecast to track across the region this evening while the
seabreeze pushes inland. At the same time, surface troughing
remains in place to the west. The seabreeze and surface trough
remain the focus for thunderstorm activity today. Then tomorrow
a backdoor cold front/seabreeze combo will be the focus for
thunderstorm activity. Guidance continues to suggest PoPs remain
around the 50-80% range each day with highest PoPs noted in the
afternoon/evening. Much like yesterday, precip will certainly
be very hit or miss across ENC.

No real changes to forecast thinking for today and tomorrow. A
rather moist airmass is expected to remain in place across ENC
over the next few days with PWATs generally ranging from 2-2.5
inches through Wed. Combined with ample heating across ENC,
instability will rapidly build each day with MLCAPE values
generally expected to be between 1500-2500+ J/kg each afternoon.
While instability will certainly be plentiful, deep layer shear
will not be, as wind shear struggles to get above 25 kts. This
will likely limit any significant storm organization, but
cannot rule out some wet microbursts or stronger winds (40-60
mph) within the strongest storms along the seabreeze and surface
trough today. Because of this, SPC has outlined a good portion
of ENC in a Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe tstorms today.
Another round of afternoon showers/storms is possible Wed as the
aforementioned front moves through, once again bringing a
severe threat to ENC given the similar airmass. SPC has portions
of ENC under a marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe weather as
well on Wed with damaging winds (40-60 mph) being the main
hazard within the strongest storms. In addition to the severe
threat today and tomorrow, there will also be a heavy rain
threat with any thunderstorm that develops given the high PWAT`s
(2" +) and slow storm motions which could lead to some
localized flooding mainly in poor drainage and urban areas. As a
result WPC also has kept much of the area under a marginal risk
for excessive rainfall over the next two days as well.

Beyond mid week, PoPs return back to climo (20-40%) as more
typical seabreeze showers/storms return. Hts/thicknesses slowly
build in the process as ridging begins to build once again, with
heat indices 100-105 in the forecast.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Not much change in forecast thinking from Thurs
onwards as low level thicknesses remain around normal values
which places inland temps in the mid to upper 90s across ENC.
With dewpoints in the 70s there could be widespread heat
indices around 100-110 each afternoon from Thurs into Sat.
Probabilistic heat risk shows a 60% + chance for reaching major
heat risk values with the greatest risk coming on Thurs/Fri so
additional heat advisories may come into play later this week.

KEY MESSAGE 4...With the aforementioned high heat and humidity
expected Thurs into this weekend, a very unstable atmosphere
develops with the potential for ML CAPES to near 3500 J/KG each
day, and SFC based instability between 4000-5000 J/KG. As is
typical this time of year, deep layer shear will not be too
strong, but any storms that can develop with some upper level
support could produce strong downdraft/microburst winds and very
heavy rain characterized by PW`s exceeding 2". Will also be
monitoring Sunday as the next potential front makes an
appearance across ENC which could help to focus thunderstorm
activity and bring more shear to the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Some patchy low stratus and ground fog remains across portions
of our NW`rn zones this morning but this should quickly lift
within the next hour or so. All TAF sites are currently VFR as
of this update and should remain that way over the next few
hours. Outside of the TAF sites, some brief periods of sub-VFR
conditions are possible near MRH as a line of heavy showers
moves through. Once this rain activity pushes off the coast
expect VFR conditions across all of ENC until the next round of
thunderstorms this afternoon. Much like yesterday, expect
increasing shower and thunderstorm chances late this morning and
afternoon. Have maintained the PROB30/TEMPO groups to mention
this threat with general timing at all TAF sites after 18Z
today. Any TSRA that develop today will be capable of 30-45kt
winds and significant reductions to VIS. Showers and
thunderstorms once again wane tonight with another round of low
stratus and patchy fog possible.

Outlook (Wed through Sat): A backdoor cold front will track
across the region on Wed bringing yet another chance for
showers and thunderstorms and potential for sub-VFR conditions.
Beyond Wed, more typical iso to widely sct activity expected as
ridging rebuilds into ENC so a much lower threat for sub-VFR
conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
As expected 15-25 kt SW`rly winds with gusts up to 25-30 kts
are occuring across the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet
and the Pamlico Sound this morning where ongoing SCA`s are
noted. Weaker winds at 5-15 kts are noted elsewhere while seas
remain around 2-5 ft offshore. These conditions will persist
into daybreak before easing this morning thus ending the ongoing
SCA`s. Expect 10-20 kt SW winds today with 2-5 ft seas keeping
things just below SCA levels for the most part. There will be
the potential for another round of SCA conditions across the
coastal waters and Pamlico Sound tonight, though this looks less
likely than this mornings SCA`s so have not added additional
SCA`s across these waters just yet. Regardless do expect winds
to ease close to daybreak Wed once again. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will also be possible across our waters today and
tonight as a shortwave moves through bringing a threat for
locally enhanced winds and seas.

Outlook (Wed through Sat): Weakening front moves into the
waters on Wed, though as is typical in July, the front appears
to wash out, with any N`rly flow behind it short lived with
return flow developing Wed evening. SW`rly winds look to
strengthen some on Thurs/Fri as a thermal trough strengthens
across the area bringing our next potential threat for SCA`s to
the waters.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for NCZ079-090>092-094-193>196-198-199.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RCF
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...RCF