Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

811
FXUS62 KMHX 121111
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
711 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation Disco updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dangerous heat today.

2) Pattern expected to become more conducive for showers and
thunderstorms for the weekend into early next week. Couple of
chances for severe thunderstorms this evening and tonight and
again on Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...SFC drifts further E with midlevel ridging
centered to the S allows for thickness values to peak today,
allowing MaxTs well into the upper 90s for most, a low triple
digits away from the coast. This will threaten records (see
climate section below for record high info). Tds continue to
creep upwards today, low to mid 70s in the afternoon, AppTs/heat
indices/"feels like" temps to reach 105-109degF across all
mainland zones away from the coast. We have issued a heat
advisory across these areas from 1100-2000edt. The NWS
experimental Heat Risk guidance shows much of ENC in the major
category, with a few areas nearing the extreme category which
lends further confidence in impactful heat across ENC today. We
will cool down slightly in the following days with highs in the
low to mid 90s into early next week so while heat headlines are
not anticipated, it will still feel like full swing summer, and
any precautions you can take if you plan to be outside for
longer durations are encouraged. While it`s a lower end
potential (less than 20%) the caveat to the current forecasted
heat and heat indices through this weekend will be the coverage
of convection (see KEY MESSAGE 2 for additional details), and
the potential for high clouds/convective debris. Both of those
factors can have significant impacts on the temperature forecast
each day.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Synoptic pattern is expected to shift towards
something more favorable for convection across ENC starting
tonight with a weak front crossing the FA SAT and stalling to
the S of the area into early next week when troughing aloft
develops, opening moisture transport from the Gulf. However,
this shouldn`t be read as a high coverage of thunderstorms each
day. Stronger showers and tstorms develop to our W and approach
the area near sunset. This activity could hold on long enough,
and potentially reinvigorate over the area when the prefrontal
trough interacts with the seabreeze as it works over the Coastal
Plain. While MLCAPE values may be on the downtrend Fri evening
lowering to 1000 J/kg or less by about 9-11PM, ongoing activity
could be more cold pool dominated and sustain itself as it
enters into ENC. Greatest risk is generally north of Hwy 70 with
wind (40-60 mph) being the primary hazard. SPC has also
highlighted this area under a Slight Risk (lvl 2/5) given the
attendant wind threat. The storms over this area could also
bring periods of heavy downpours. Hourly NBM PoPs keep the area
under 40-50% PoPs for the first half of the night with lower
PoPs (20-40%) over the coast in the early morning hours SAT as
momentum carries the weakening showers and storms offshore. By
the time the storms reach areas near the coast, they are
expected to be weakening and mostly cold pool dominated, but
still pose a threat of bringing strong winds along the outflow
boundaries, and as such, SPC has outlined the rest of the FA in
a Marginal Risk (lvl 1/5).

Temps aloft "cool" slightly as heights aloft fall ahead of the front
and the stout mid level ridge begins to weaken, and this may support
at least a risk of higher coverage seabreeze convection on Sat,
particularly along the Crystal Coast seabreeze where likely PoPs are
mentioned. The ample moisture noted by PWATs rising to 2-2.5in,
strong destabilization due to typical summer time heating and
the height falls aloft poses a threat for the development of
tstorms which could be strong to marginally severe. Greatest
threat lies N of the FA closer to the jet aloft, but storms in
the area could bring strong winds.

Early next week, higher than climo shower and storm chances are in
the forecast with the greater moisture content through the column
leading to PWATs in excess of 2". Additionally, deep layer shear of
around 30-35kt with weak cyclogenesis along another front set to
approach and stall over the area MON may support a modest
increase in the potential for organized convection, some of
which could be on the strong side. High pressure returns late
next week when high pressure builds in behind a mid-week front.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR flight cats are forecast through the bulk of the period.
SW winds continue today with gust around 15-20 kt, especially
after the sea breeze pushes through. Could see isolated
seabreeze thunderstorms during the afternoon, but coverage not
enough to mention in the TAF at the moment, less than 25% chance.
A better chance for showers and thunderstorms after 00z
Saturday with an MCS approaching from the NW. Storms will be
strongest over NWern portions (PGV) and weakening as they
approach the coast. These storms could bring reduced VIS and
strong winds. Have introduced PROB30 groups for PGV, ISO, and
EWN with the greatest chance for flight op impacts at PGV. After
showers/storms roll through, light SWerly breeze and VFR CIGs
and VIS ahead of an approaching cold front set to cross through
the FA early SAT.

Outlook: Better chance for afternoon/evening showers/storms
this weekend when a front crosses the region Sat, stalling to
the S and into early next week, with tempo reductions in vsby
and/or cigs accompanying the heavier showers (best chance SAT
afternoon over SWern zones/OAJ) and at least a chance of MVFR
CIGs directly along the front as it crosses the area early Sat.
Another front approaches and stalls over the area MON leading to
a wet period early next week with greater chances for subVFR
flight cats until the front clears through mid-week.

&&

.MARINE...
SW winds around 10-20 kt with gusts slight above 20kt. Thermal
gradients will relax some in early morning, but are expected to
tighten up again this afternoon with near record temps inland.
Afternoon and evening SCAs have been issued again for PamSound
and central coastal waters. Seas along the coastal waters
generally remain around 2-4 ft through Friday with very weak 1ft
swell out of the E at 8-9sec and the bulkier windwaves on top
~2-4ft at 5sec.

Outlook (Fri night through Tue): The risk of thunderstorms will
increase Fri night into early next week, with best chances in
the late afternoon to evening hours. A front will cross Sat and
stall to the S. SWerly flow returns SUN with another chance for
more SCAs ahead of a front set to approach and then stall over
ENC on MON. This front will clear through by midweek with high
pressure briefly returning thereafter.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for 06/12 (Friday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        95/2016  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   89/1922  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      98/1914  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   92/1952  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         95/1986  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    95/2016  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ195-196-
     199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT
     this evening for AMZ135-152-154.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CEB
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...CEB