Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

085
FXUS62 KMHX 291048
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
648 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant forecast changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Elevated water levels and minor street and property tidal
flooding will continue to impact some coastal communities,
mainly Downeast, thanks to ongoing high astronomical tides.

2) High pressure remains in place through Friday with light
winds and above normal temperatures.

3) Moisture returns with a cold front and low pressure system
bringing next chance of rain this weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...While wind and seas have come down, minor
soundside flooding (1 ft or less) is still possible for mainly
Downeast Carteret county through the next several high tide
cycles. The high astronomical tides peak today, and already high
water levels due to last week`s wind event will keep water
levels elevated mainly around the high tide cycles through the
next couple days. Standing water on roadways, and in low lying
or poor drainage areas, could have minor impacts for travelers
in especially vulnerable areas prone to the tidal flooding.
Elevated water levels will persist through Wednesday, but levels
are not expected to be as high as they were the last several
days. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for the areas most
at risk through today.

KEY MESSAGE 2...An upper level ridge will expand east across
the Southeastern U.S. through the week. Beneath the ridge, light
southerly flow and increasing low-level thicknesses should
support a period of above to well above normal temperatures,
especially on Thursday and Friday. Forecast aids are now showing
an increasing signal for above normal temperatures, especially
on Friday, adding confidence to the potential. For reference,
normal highs in early October are around 80 degrees, and
forecast highs are in the mid to upper 80s for much of ENC, with
some 90s possible inland. Persistent southerly flow and
increasing low-level moisture should help to keep overnight lows
higher as well, and well above the normal lows of around 60.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Over the weekend, a weak area of low pressure
is forecast to lift NE along a cold front that will be advancing
southeast through the Eastern U.S. Ahead of the front and low,
a pool of moisture over the Gulf is forecast to get pulled north
into the Carolinas, supporting an increased risk of showers.
There may be just enough instability present to support a risk
of thunderstorms as well, especially on Sunday. For now,
ensemble guidance is showing about a 30-50% chance of exceeding
1" of rain with this system. Any rain will be helpful,
especially for the coastal plain of ENC that is currently in
moderate to extreme drought.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecast confidence is moderate to high over the next 24 hours.

Early this morning, MIFG will continue to impact all TAF sites
with sub-VFR conditions, but VIS should quickly improve by
12-13z. Despite the LIFR/IFR conditions being reported, webcams
and satellite suggest this is a very shallow fog with not much
depth to it, and the TAFs reflect this.

During the day today, a moistening easterly flow is expected as
a weak area of low pressure moves away from the coast. Within
this flow, SCT to BKN low CIGS (4-5k ft) are likely to develop.
These CIGs should scatter out by this evening, setting up the
potential for another night of good radiational cooling
conditions. With a more moist boundary layer in place, the setup
appears more favorable for BR/FG compared to this morning, and
potentially a fog with more depth/impact. Ensemble guidance
shows a 30-50% chance of sub-VFR conditions due to reduced VIS.

Outlook: Other than a nightly risk of reduced VIS in
BR/MIFG/FG, a low-impact aviation period is expected through the
end of the work week.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak area of low pressure will move east through the outer
coastal waters south of Cape Hatteras this morning. Strong winds
are not expected with this low due to the weak nature of the
low (currently around 1015mb). In the wake of this low, a 5-10kt
easterly flow is expected to develop across all waters. Of
note, some funneling through the Albemarle Sound may allow a
period of 10-15kt winds there. East to southeast flow persists
into Wednesday, but will remain light.

For the coastal waters, seas of 2-3ft will be common through
Wednesday.

Outlook: Good boating conditions are expected through at least
Friday. By the weekend, a front will be approaching the area
from the NW, and this is expected to lead to a modest increase
in south to southwest winds. Increasing moisture plus weak
instability may eventually lead to a risk of thunderstorms as
well, especially on Sunday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NCZ195-196.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RM/TL
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...RM