Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

342
FXUS62 KMHX 231113
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
713 AM EDT Mon Mar 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Gale Warning has been expanded to include the Pamlico Sound.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Strong cold front to impact the area today with scattered
showers and thunderstorms

2) Another frontal system to impact ENC late-week

Marine: Elevated winds and seas expected through Tuesday, with
a period of gale-force winds expected for a portion of the area
late today into tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong cold front, currently oozing southeast
across the Ohio Valley, is expected to reach ENC late this
morning, then continue southeast through the day. The front may
slow down some as the strongest frontal forcing shifts away from
the area, but should move offshore by early this evening. A
warm westerly flow ahead of the front will lead to one more day
of well above normal temperatures. In fact, some areas along the
immediate coast, especially the Crystal Coast, could be warmer
today than yesterday thanks to a pinned seabreeze and the
westerly flow. I would not be surprised if a few areas just
inland of the Crystal Coast flirt with 90 degrees (ie.
Jacksonville to New Bern/James City).

Modest moisture advection ahead of the front should allow PWATs
to exceed 1" across the area. The westerly flow will tend to
offset low- level moisture advection, but dewpoints should
manage to reach the upper 50s to low 60s. These values beneath
modestly steep mid-level lapse rates should support an area of
pre-frontal weak instability (MLCAPE of 250-500j/kg). Meanwhile,
modest westerly flow aloft should support effective shear of
around 40kt. This combination is supportive of thunderstorm
organization. However, the lack of higher instability plus warm
low-level temps and some residual capping should tend to offset
deeper convection from developing. With this in mind, scattered
thunderstorms are still expected, but the risk of severe weather
continues to look low. The greatest risk looks to be strong
downburst winds (40-45 mph) thanks to very steep low-level lapse
rates. A reasonable worst case scenario is for a few 50-60 mph
wind gusts to occur should stronger instability develop.

Behind the front, a much colder and drier airmass will move in
on gusty northerly winds. Across the northern half of ENC,
temperatures are expected to fall through the afternoon as the
front moves through there first. In fact, the NRN OBX may fall
into the 40s by the afternoon (after starting the day near 70).

KEY MESSAGE 2...Another cold front is forecast to ooze south
across the Carolinas later this week (mostly likely on Friday).
Similar to today`s front, above to well above normal
temperatures are expected just ahead of the front, followed by
noticeably cooler conditions behind it. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms may accompany that front as well, although
guidance has trended a bit drier. A period of breezy northerly
winds can be expected along and behind the front as well.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front, currently moving through the central
Appalachians/Virginia area, is still on track to reach ENC by
this afternoon. The latest guidance continues to point towards
the front passing through ENC between 15z and 21z. Some guidance
have slowed down with the front just a touch, but not
drastically so. Ahead of the front, gusty SW to W winds are
expected, with peak gusts of 20- 25kt. A northerly wind shift
will occur with the front, and will be followed by a period of
gusty N to NE winds. Peak gusts behind the front are expected to
be in the 25-35kt range. Of note, SCT TSRA along the front may
lead to areas of enhanced wind gusts as high as 40kt. Brief
reductions to VIS and CIGs will be possible with any SHRA or
TSRA as well.

Outlook: There may be another risk of sub-VFR conditions
Tuesday night into Wednesday night associated with a coastal
trough that may develop offshore and attempt to migrate inland.
Guidance is mixed on whether or not this trough will develop,
though. If the trough does, indeed, develop, there would also be
an accompanying risk of SHRA, especially along the coast. After
mid-week, the next opportunity for sub-VFR conditions looks to
be Friday or Saturday as another cold front moves in with SCT
SHRA and TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
A strong cold front, currently moving through the Ohio Valley,
will reach the ENC waters by early this afternoon, then push
south of the area by this evening. Moderate southwesterly winds
(15-25kt) ahead of the front will continue into this afternoon.
Behind the front there will be a stout northerly wind shift,
with winds building to 20-30kt. Frequent gusts up to 35kt are
expected for a portion of the area. A Gale Warning remains in
effect where the risk of frequent 35kt gusts is the highest. Of
note, the water temperatures in the Pamlico Sound have warmed
well into the 50s and 60s, and wind gusts have been over-
performing in the pre-frontal regime this morning. With strong
mixing expected over the warmer waters behind the front, it
appears the risk of frequent gale-force gusts has increased over
the sound, and the Gale Warning has been expanded. Outside of
the Gale Warning, occasional gusts to 35kt will be possible, but
not as frequent or as long in duration.

Ahead of the front, seas of 3-5ft are expected. Behind the
front, seas are forecast to build to 6-9ft north of Cape
Lookout. South of there, seas of 3-6ft are expected.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to accompany the cold
front, with areas of enhanced wind gusts possible.

Outlook: High pressure builds in on Tuesday with winds and seas
gradually laying down. Coastal troughing may develop mid-week,
eventually leading to southerly winds returning as the trough
moves inland. The next notable cold front is forecast to move
through the ENC waters on Friday, with very similar impacts to
today`s front.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for 03/23 (Monday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
Morehead City  75/2012  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT
     Tuesday for AMZ131-230-231.
     Gale Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for
     AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
     Tuesday for AMZ136-137.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT
     Tuesday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ152-
     154-156-158.
     Gale Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for
     AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RM
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...RM