Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

201
FXUS62 KMHX 091018
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
618 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Marine Dense Fog Advisories issued for the northern and central
waters, Pamlico Sound and the Croatan/Roanoke Sounds.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Well above normal to near record conditions
expected mid week with high pressure ridging offshore.

2) Strong cold front moves through the region Thursday.

Aviation...LIFR conditions possible tonight into Monday morning
(50-70% chance).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Some weak upper troughs will traverse the
Mid-Atlantic today and tonight promoting diurnal showers across
ENC, though any precip that falls today will be light at best.
However, the general trend is for an anomalously strong ridge to
overspread the Southeastern CONUS later tonight into Tuesday
with this ridge not moving through Wednesday. NAEFS standardized
anomalies continue to suggest this ridging is about 2-3
standard deviations above normal for the time of year across the
area. As a result this will continue to bring well above avg
temperatures to Eastern North Carolina with near record to
record high temperatures possible on Tue/Wed out ahead of an
even stronger cold front (See CLIMATE Section below). Biggest
threat for breaking records will be across inland locations as
relatively cool water temps should moderate high temps in the
60s and 70s near the coast.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Really not much change in forecast thinking for
Thursdays front. Across the upper levels, a cut off low near
the Baja Peninsula will steadily trek E`wards across Texas and
the Gulf States this week eventually getting absorbed within an
incoming positively to neutrally tilted upper level trough
which will be moving across the Northern Plains and Ohio River
Valley. This trough then tracks across the Northeast and Mid-
Atlantic on Thursday potentially gaining a negative tilt. At the
surface, a deepening low pressure system will be tracking
NE`wards across the Great Lakes and Interior Northeast while its
associated strong cold front sweeps E`wards across the
Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. Ahead of this front, strong
southwesterly winds will help bring up moisture, with PWATs
modeled to be in the 1.25-1.5" range. The speed and how quickly
the upper level low gets absorbed by the incoming trough will
have an impact on how strong the aforementioned surface low
will get and how quickly the incoming cold front moves across
the region. Latest guidance has the GFS and its ensembles the
most progressive with this system, moving the front through the
area Thurs morning with the ECMWF and Canadian guidance slightly
slower progressing the front across the region closer to Thurs
afternoon. With this in mind, there is some discrepancy with how
much instability there is available across ENC, but general
thinking is CAPEs will remain quite low, and thus a threat for
thunder is less than 20% for most areas, with 20% or higher
thunder risks relegated to areas east of Hwy 17 and south of
Oregon Inlet and in vicinity of the warmer Gulf waters. Given
the impressive dynamics of this system, elected to not use NBM
winds for Thursday as they appear to be much too low. Current
forecast has wind gusts 30-35 mph. Behind the front cool, dry
air moves in for Thursday night/Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mix of VFR, MVFR and LIFR across the terminals early this
morning, in combo of fog and low stratus. Guidance shows a
strong signal for IFR conditions continuing through mid morning.
Best chances for areas of denser fog will be across the
SW...along with sea fog along the coast. LIFR PROBABILITY
(through this morning): 50-70% for all terminals. Low CIGs/VIS
should improve during the day today, with VFR conditions
expected by this afternoon. Areas of fog may re- develop again
overnight into Tue morning.

Outlook...A front will likely stall near the region continuing
to bring chances for sub-VFR conditions to ENC through Tue
(mainly periods of fog and stratus) before widespread VFR
conditions officially return on Wed. Sub-VFR may return Thursday
with scattered to numerous showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Ongoing rain and isolated thunderstorm activity continue to
impact our marine waters this morning but should come to an end
soon. Overall much of this activity is very weak, but locally
elevated winds and seas are possible within any thunderstorms.
Otherwise, winds and seas continue to ease across our waters
with S`rly winds fallen to about 5-10 kts with gusts up to 15
kts and 3-5 ft seas across the coastal waters currently noted.
As a result, the ongoing Small Craft Advisories have ended and
expect benign boating conditions to persist across our waters
today as winds remain light (generally at 5-10 kts coming from
the S-SW) and seas along our coastal waters lower further to 2-4
ft with 1 ft seas noted inland and along the immediate coast
through tonight.

Sea fog has re-developed across the northern and central waters
this morning and will likely continue through at least this
afternoon, possibly into tonight and Tuesday. Marine DFA has
been issued. Will continue to watch the southern waters for
reduced vsbys. Fog may become denser closer to sunrise with
winds laying down.

Outlook (Tuesday through Friday): Benign boating conditions
forecast through Wed with widespread 5-10 kt winds and 2-4 ft
seas forecast. However, a stronger front will likely cross the
waters Thursday. SW winds will strengthen ahead of the front Wed
night with SCA conditions likely (Gales over the warmer Gulf
Stream). Winds turn NW and then NE and remain gusty Thursday
afternoon into Thursday evening behind the front. Winds and
seas diminish rapidly Thursday night and Friday as dry high
pressure ridge builds overhead. Benign boating conditions then
persist into the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for 3/10 (Tuesday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        86/1974  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   74/2000  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      84/2000  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   86/1974  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         85/2009  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    84/1974  (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 3/11 (Wednesday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        86/2015  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   73/1982  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      83/2016  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   83/1974  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         84/2000,2015  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    86/2015  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ135-150-
     152-154-231.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RCF
AVIATION...CQD
MARINE...RCF