Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

383
FXUS62 KMHX 081109
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
709 AM EDT Fri May 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
SCA for central waters has been cancelled a little early, and
patchy fog was added early this morning to our NW counties.
The rest of the forecast remains unchanged.

Previous:
Rain chances have decreased a bit this weekend.

There is a chance of scattered severe thunderstorms on Monday
along with periods of heavy rain.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry weather and below Normal temps today.

2) PoPs have decreased a bit for the weekend, as it appears the
bulk of heaviest showers or storms will remain mostly to the
south of Eastern NC or offshore.

3) A strong cold front will move through on Monday. Depending on
the time of day it moves through, scattered severe thunderstorms
and some heavy rain may accompany the frontal passage.

4) A warm front lifts through the Carolinas followed by a cold
front midweek representing the next wave of precip.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Cold front has pushed S of the FA leading to a
Nerly flow CAA regime through the bulk of the day today as SFC
high pressure builds across TN and eventually ENC. This will
result in a mild, dry day to end the work-week with MaxTs in
the low 70s (60s OBX). The high shifts offshore this evening
with seasonably cool overnight lows continuing in the 50s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Guidance continues to trend slightly drier for
the weekend, as several low amplitude and weakly sheared
shortwaves sweep across the Mid Atlantic. GOM is cutoff from
moisture with low pressure aloft currently over Sern AZ/NM
eroding as it travels Eward across TX tonight, and thus precip
looks to be much more spotty in nature. Continue downward trend
in PoPs currently peaking around 40ish%. Low level moisture
transport about the high pressure offshore and the afternoon
seabreeze may get enough help aloft from the s/w discussed above
to lead to weak isolated to scattered showers across the
mainland with heavier showers and greater tstorm chances over
coastal and offshore waters.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Decent agreement on next stronger shortwave
and attendant cold front moving through the region on Monday.
This system will have decently strong dynamics with fairly sharp
troughing aloft pivoting over ECONUS to become more negatively
tilted and potentially steeper lapse rates. Depending on
diurnal timing, a severe thunderstorm threat is possible with
this system, with the main threats appearing to be severe wind
gusts and large hail, along with heavy downpours. Still outside
of HiRes guidance resolution window, but global guidance suggest
another half inch of rain or so is possible with this FROPA.

KEY MESSAGE 4...Stacked low cutting across the Sern extent of
the Great Lakes and high pressure offshore brings warm and moist
air across the Carolinas ahead of the next front set to cross
the area midweek. Will need to watch this system for severe
potential as well.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A stripe of low stratus (IFR/MVFR CIGs) will continue to push
south and off the ENC coast early this morning. There will be a
brief opportunity for reduced VIS in BR/FG through about 13z
this morning, then VFR conditions should prevail into this
evening. Southerly return flow develops tonight bringing low-
level moisture back into the area. This may support an area of
FG or stratus developing. Recent guidance suggests stratus is
the most likely scenario. A few SHRA or TSRA may approach the
southern coastal runways by sunrise Saturday as well, but any of
this activity should stay south of the TAF sites through 12z
Saturday.

Outlook: On Saturday, a warm front is forecast to lift north
through the area in the morning, and may be accompanied by
isolated SHRA and TSRA. In the wake of this warm front, weak to
modest instability and increasing moisture may allow for a
continued risk of isolated to scattered SHRA and TSRA through
the weekend. A greater TSRA risk may develop with a frontal
boundary on Monday. Sub-VFR conditions will be possible with any
SHRA or TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
The cold front has pushed S of the FA with high pressure
building in from the W. Nerly winds slowly diminish through the
morning becoming 10kt or less around midday. Winds become
SEerly with the seabreeze circulation getting going in
conjunction with the SFC high pushing off the coast in the
evening.

Outlook (Saturday through Tuesday):
The improvement will be short lived as SWerly winds approach,
but expected to remain under SCA criteria SAT. Weak shortwaves
aloft may lead to showers and storms, particularly over Gulf
Stream waters. Winds and seas diminish on Sunday, with next
fropa expected Monday with SCA conditions possible once again
with this front.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CEB
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...CEB