Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

684
FXUS62 KMHX 110802
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
402 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Expanded the Heat Advisory to also include Northern Craven,
Pamlico, Beaufort, Washington, Tyrrell, Mainland Dare and
Mainland Hyde counties.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Hot and humid conditions will prevail through the workweek
with bringing high probabilities for a major heat risk over much
of the area.

2) Summertime pattern continues over the next several days
with daily chances for shower and thunderstorm activity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
An elevated heat risk will be the name of the game over the
next few days low level flow generally SW to W over the next
several days. As a result, some weak WAA will allow low level
thicknesses to increase closer to 1430m. Based off the offices
climatological study this is forecast to result in highs in the
low to mid 90s across the inland areas and upper 80s to low 90s
along the OBX and coast through much of the week before a front
impacts the region resulting in cooler temperatures late week
into the weekend.

Heat indices are expected to peak around 100-110 each afternoon
through Thurs, and potentially lingering into Fri with daily heat
headlines probable for much of the area. For today, have
expanded the Heat Advisory to include the Inner Banks, which
leaves NW counties the the OBX out as they are expected to
remain just below criteria. We encourage anyone planning on
spending alot of time outdoors this week to take proper
precautions and stay hydrated.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
A typical summer time pattern will remain in place through much
the week with a series of shortwaves/MCS`s moving through WNW
flow aloft bringing periods of showers and thunderstorms across
the region. With a moist and unstable airmass in place, could
see daily seabreeze related storms developing each afternoon,
however best forcing will occur as individual shortwaves move
across the region, which at this time appears to be late
afternoon and evening hours for the next couple of days and SPC
has portions of the FA in a marginal risk of severe
thunderstorms for both Day 1 and Day 2 as these systems push
across the area. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary severe
threat with these storms. A stronger northern stream shortwave
is progged to push across the Mid-Atlantic Friday with the
attendant cold front pushing into the area bringing the best
forcing and chances for widespread showers and storms across the
area. High pressure build into the area over the weekend
bringing bringing a drier airmass and minimal chances for
storms.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AMD NOT SKED has been added to EWN again. Obs briefly came back
yesterday but have disappeared again overnight. Have no
knowledge at this time of cause of the issue. TAFs will
continue to be issued while the issue is troubleshooted. NKT is
the closest ASOS. EWN is able to be dialed into to receive
latest observations.

Fog and low stratus concerns are low tonight with winds
expected to remain elevated enough. However, locations that
experienced enhanced rainfall today could be at risk of seeing
some low stratus or very shallow, non-impactful ground fog with
higher near surface moisture. OAJ briefly reported IFR vsybs and
think this TAF site will have the best chance to sub-VFR
conditions this morning. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
expected this afternoon and evening as a convective system
pushes across the Mid-Atlantic. Some storms could produce strong
wind gusts.

Outlook (Wednesday through Saturday): Primarily VFR conditions
and light winds are expected mid to late week, but there will be
scattered convection possible each afternoon and evening hours
that could bring periods of sub-VFR conditions. A cold front is
progged to push through the area late Friday/Friday night that
will bring the best chances for prolonged sub-VFR conditions. In
addition, there is a low end chance for patchy ground fog to
develop each morning with best chances in areas that saw
significant rainfall the previous afternoon/evening.

&&

.MARINE...
A typical summertime pattern across the waters with S-SW winds
around 5-15 kt during the morning hours, increasing to around
10-20 kt during the afternoon and evening each day this week as
temps warm inland bringing a tightening of gradients between the
thermal trough inland and the offshore high. Gusts may approach
SCA conditions across the Pamlico, Croatan/Roanoke Sounds and
coastal waters north of Cape Hatteras at times but currently not
anticipating any SCA headlines for any waters given the short
and infrequent nature of any stronger gusts. Seas will remain
around 2-4 ft into the end of the week as well.

A series of shortwave troughs will push across the coastal waters
through the week continuing to bring periods if showers and
thunderstorms, most prevalent being nocturnal driven over the
Gulf Stream waters. A cold front is progged to push across the
waters late Friday/Friday night with N to NE winds developing
over the weekend as high pressure builds in from the north.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for NCZ045>047-080-081-090-092-094-193>196-198-199.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SK/RJ
AVIATION...SK/CEB
MARINE...SK/RJ