Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

952
FXUS62 KMHX 021845
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
245 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) High pressure remains in place today with light winds and
near-record high temps.

2) Moisture returns with a cold front and low pressure system
bringing scattered to numerous showers this weekend.

3) Cool high pressure leads to more fall-like temps next week,
but a prolonged period of moderate onshore winds poses localized
coastal flooding concerns for areas along the OBX with
compromised dune structures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Southerly low-level flow beneath ridging aloft,
plus strong heating with clear skies will support well above to
near- record highs this afternoon. Please see the CLIMATE
section for more details. For reference, normal highs in early
October are around 80 degrees, and forecast highs are in the 80s
to low 90s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A plume of anomalous, and deep, moisture will
get pulled north through the Southeastern U.S. in advance of a
cold front this weekend. The front will initially move through
ENC on Saturday, then stall offshore before lifting back north
on Sunday. This will occur as a weak area of low pressure rides
NE along the front. As the low moves off the coast, it will drag
the front back south through ENC later Sunday into Sunday
night.

Modest heating of a moist boundary layer should allow moderate
instability to build ahead of the front on Saturday, especially
across our southern counties south of HWY 70. It`s there where
we expect the greatest coverage of showers and thunderstorms to
be focused Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Guidance
differ some on the progression of the front on Saturday, but
with strong ridging centered offshore, it stands to reason that
the progress of the front will be slowed, favoring a frontal
passage during peak heating for our southern counties. Moderate
instability plus 2"+ PWATs suggests a risk of high rainfall
rates at times. Ensemble guidance suggests 0.50-1.50" of rain,
on average, in this area. However, where convection is the most
persistent, rainfall totals may reach as high as 2-3". This may
support a risk of urban and poor drainage flooding. 3-hr flash
flood guidance is 3-4" in this area, which suggests the risk of
flash flooding is low based on the potential higher-end amounts
being below FFG. It`s worth watching, though, given such high
moisture content.

On Sunday, guidance differ on how far north the front will get
as it briefly lifts back north as a warm front. This doesn`t
appear to impact the ENC from a coverage standpoint. However, if
the front were to lift further north, it could open up the
potential for more instability to be available, which could
support higher rainfall rates and amounts. This could also have
an impact on temperatures. Regardless, increased low-mid level
convergence interacting with a very moist airmass should lead to
a widespread area of showers and isolated thunderstorms. For
the area at large, the greatest coverage of showers and
thunderstorms is expected on Sunday.

In total, 1-3" of rain appears likely for much of ENC over the
weekend. The highest rainfall amounts should be across the
southwestern counties of ENC where there will be the potential
for heavy rain both Saturday and Sunday (compared to just Sunday
for the northeastern counties of ENC).

The risk of severe thunderstorms continues to look low due to
weak shear and weak mid-level lapse rates. However, perhaps a
few water- loaded downdrafts of 30-40 mph will occur Saturday
afternoon when instability is at its peak.

KEY MESSAGE 3...In the wake of the weekend front, a stiff
NEerly breeze will develop and peak MON night into TUE. This
will lead to building seas and elevated water levels.
Astronomical tide levels will luckily be on the way down, but
seas building to 7ft, though relatively choppy periodicity of 7
sec, but enough to lead to further beach and dune erosion
concerns across the areas with severely diminished dune
structures. Strongest winds of 20-25 kt with higher gusts
expected MON night into TUE morning. Winds remain out of the
N-NE into late- week, but speeds diminish to 10-15kt late TUE
and beyond.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecast confidence is moderate over the next 24 hours.

VFR conditions this afternoon will eventually give way to the
development of low CIGs on Saturday as a cold front begins to
move slowly south into ENC. Just prior to the arrival of the
front, there may be a window of opportunity for BR/MIFG/FG to
develop, and this continues to be reflected in the latest TAF
forecast. While the TAFs only show MVFR/low VFR conditions for
now, the potential exists for a period of IFR, or lower,
conditions to develop early Saturday morning. The front, itself,
is then expected to be accompanied by a more widespread area of
IFR/MVFR CIGs in low stratus. However, guidance differ some on
the timing of the front. A northeast wind shift will accompany
the front as well.

Outlook: A risk of low CIGs and TSRA will accompany a wavy
frontal boundary that will waffle north and south across ENC
over the weekend. The front will finally shift fully offshore
and away from the area Sunday night into Monday. The wind
direction will vary during this time as well, but will become
predominantly north to northeast behind the front Sunday night
into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Benign boating conditions continue across ENC with light S-SWerly
5-10 kt winds and 1-2 ft seas across our area waters as high
pressure persists offshore. S-SW winds build to 10-15kt late
this afternoon Seas generally remain around 1-3 ft at 9-10 sec
into early SAT morning.

Outlook (Sat through Tue): A front will be approaching the area
from the NW and pass through with winds turning NNE and inc a
bit to 10-20 kt for Nern marine zones by SAT afternoon.
Increasing moisture plus weak instability lead to widespread
showers with a few storms. At this time, conditions look to
remain below SCA levels through the weekend, but a secondary
front moves through Monday with SCA winds appearing likely later
Mon into Tue with 15-25 kt winds and seas of 6+ ft.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for 10/02 (Friday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern      93/1986  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 89/1986  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville    94/1986  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 88/1954  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston       95/1986  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville  93/1986  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RM/CEB
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...CEB