Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

253
FXUS62 KMHX 142340
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
740 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Multiple coastal lows consolidate into a broader low pressure
system that will push further offshore tonight. High pressure
builds in mid through late week. A cold front moves through late
this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 7 PM Tue...No significant changes to the forecast for
tonight as there may be some coastal drizzle along the OBX but
outside of that we generally remain dry tonight. Did hedge
towards a clearer solution tonight given cloudcover appears to
be eroding just off to the west but other than that left
everything else alone as the forecast appears to be tracking
well.

Prev Disc...Nrly winds relax and become light this evening
with some clearing across Coastal Plain as drier air associated
with incoming ridge begins to overspread the area as SFC low
and trough aloft departs Eward. Dry overnight, with some ocnl
sprinkles or drizzle along the OBX where clouds and shallow
moisture will reside. MinTs mid50s inland, low 60s beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
As of 3 PM Tue...High pres ridges into ENC, with a mix of sun
and clouds. Best chance for bkn strato cu will be along/east of
hwy 17, but no rain expected. It will be much warmer with a
return of the sun, with highs in the mid 70s interior to around
70 coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Tue...

Key Messages...

- After a warm and dry Wednesday, we will turn breezy and cooler
  later this week with highs below normal and lows bottoming
  out in the upper 30s/low 40s Friday and Saturday mornings

- Dry and breezy conditions continue through this weekend with
  above normal temps returning. Next chance of rain possible
  late Sunday into early Monday as a cold front moves through

Cooler airmass will move in Thursday and Friday (highs in the
60s) thanks to a reinforcing cold front. High pressure re-
centers over the southern Mid-Atlantic Saturday, and then
offshore Sunday signaling a return to above normal conditions.
The next chance of rain may come late Sunday night into early
Monday as a quick moving and moisture-starved front moves across
the Southeast.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Wed/...
As of 7 PM Tue...Starting out the period with widespread MVFR
ceilings across ENC with 1.5-2.5 kft cloud decks generally
noted across the region outside of a few isolated patches of IFR
along the OBX. Have a pretty sharp cutoff between MVFR and VFR
conditions just to the west as skies rapidly clear just west of
Duplin/Lenoir/Greene/Pitt/Martin Counties. Current trends
suggest we will gradually clear from west to east tonight with
PGV/ISO becoming VFR something between 01-03Z and EWN/OAJ and
areas east likely taking a bit longer to clear out with MVFR
conditions likely sticking around here until Wed morning before
skies clear out. Once skies do clear out expect VFR conditions
to persist through the rest of the period. 5-10kt NW`rly winds
expected inland through the period with 10-20 kt N`rly winds
with higher gusts expected across the OBX.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 3 AM Tue...Mostly VFR conditions are likely through the
week with cooler and drier high pressure over the region.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Wed/...
As of 730 PM Tue...Will allow the SCA to end across the
Albemarle Sound and Alligator River shortly and leave the rest
of the marine products currently out alone as the forecast is
tracking well tonight.

Prev Disc...Steady nrly breezes persist. SCA`s all zones
through this evening, then winds diminish below SCA for
Albemarle/Alligator, with winds relaxing for Croatan/Roanoke
sounds late tonight. Pamlico and coastal waters will remain in
SCA conditions through Wed. Seas will generally be 5-8 ft
through tonight and into Wed.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 3 AM Tue...

Key Messages

 - A tight pressure gradient will keep hazardous marine
   conditions in the forecast through at least Friday with
   strong Small Craft conditions expected

As low pressure pulls away from the region, strong high
pressure will build in from the NW, with a tight pressure
gradient expected through most of the week. Winds will be NNW/N
at 15-25 kts, with gusts 25-30 kts. Winds will subside quickly
late Friday to 5-15 kts, and will become SW on Saturday. Seas
will be 6-10 ft through Friday morning, and then subside to 5-7
ft.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 740 PM Tue...All coastal flood warnings have been dropped
since the previous update. With conditions continuing to
gradually ease have cancelled the Coastal Flood Advisories
across Craven and Pamlico County as well and currently have
Coastal Flood Advisories ongoing through tonight across the OBX
and Downeast Carteret County. High surf advisory remains in
effect north of Cape Hatteras through Wednesday.

Outer Banks: Now have a Coastal Flood Advisories out for the
Outer Banks. The northern most Coastal Flood Advisory is for
areas north of Oregon Inlet and currently extends out until Wed
morning as large surf in the surf zone may cause some minor
ocean overwash issues with tonight`s high tide across areas
with a more vulnerable dune structure.

Further south across Hatteras Island a combination of steady
N`rly winds and the potential for some minor ocean overwash over
the next few days will result in a threat for some minor (1-2
ft AGL) coastal flooding for both soundside and oceanside
locations. Seas will gradually diminish over the next few days,
though with long period swell still impacting the beaches and a
compromised dune structure could see some minor oceanside level
water rises through Thursday. Steady N`rly winds will also
continue leading to at least a low end threat for some minor
coastal flooding soundside as well into Thursday.

Finally across Ocracoke a steady N`rly wind will persist
through Thursday resulting in a low end threat here for some
soundside coastal flooding. Generally expecting 1 to 2 feet max
of coastal flooding especially around the more vulnerable areas
of Ocracoke.

Downeast Carteret: Coastal Flood Advisory remain in place, and
an extended period of minor flooding (1-2 ft AGL) is
anticipated due to steady northerly winds. Flooding may be
worsened around high tide this week with minor flooding impacts
lasting through at least Wednesday.

Finally high surf advisory continues for the beaches north of
Cape Hatteras through at least Wednesday as seas should remain close
to 6-9ft in the surf zone as winds gradually decrease and
aforementioned low pulls away from the East Coast. On top of
the higher seas, wave periods will be 10+ sec resulting in
another round of powerful swell impacting the area potentially
enhancing impacts to already weakened dune structures. The High
surf advisory goes out until Wed evening but could be extended
if needed.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ196-204-
     205.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203-
     205.
     Beach Hazards Statement from Wednesday morning through
     Wednesday evening for NCZ203-205.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ203.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ131-
     230.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for AMZ135-156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Friday night for
     AMZ150-152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ231.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL/RCF
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...SGK/RJ
AVIATION...SGK/RCF
MARINE...TL/SGK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX