Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

483
FXUS62 KMHX 301055
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
655 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Decreased temps and dewpoints a bit through the rest of this
week.

Updated Aviation discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Seasonably warm conditions through Thursday.

2) Dangerously hot and humid conditions for this 4th of July
weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A weak area of low pressure meandering off the
NC coast will continue to slowly drift away from the region.
Before that happens, light nerly flow and partly sunny conditions
will make for seasonably pleasant temperatures the next several
days. Highs will be in the mid 80s to around 90 inland to low
80s coast on Tuesday, and warm slowly into the low 90s inland by
Wednesday and mid 90s on Thursday. Despite the warming, relatively
low TD`s in the 60s to around 70 will not make it feel much
hotter, with heat indices no higher than the 90s through
Wednesday, possibly reaching around 100 by Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The advertised heat and humidity build into ENC
from the north and west Friday into the weekend. High impact
heat and humidity is expected, as the peak of it will be during
the busy 4th of July holiday weekend (Saturday through Monday)
with highs expected to reach well into the 90s inland, possibly
reaching 100 in some locales, with upper 80s to mid 90s
beaches. The combination of the heat and humidity will push heat
indices towards the 105 degree mark or slightly higher this
weekend. Overnight lows will also be warm due to the increased
TD`s, with lows around 80 near the coast, and mid 70s interior.

NWS probabilistic Heat Risk values peak Saturday and Sunday in
the major (coast) to extreme (inland) range. The chance for
extreme heat risk has come down a bit on Saturday and Sunday to
around 40-60% inland with the compounding days and little
relief during the nighttime periods. Those sensitive to heat and
anyone planning on spending ample amounts of time outside this
weekend into early next week should monitor the forecast trends.

With the ridge of high pressure building in, a cap will develop
with little to no shower or thunderstorm relief esp on Saturday.
On Sunday, the ridge may break down just enough for some
scattered storms to develop mainly inland zones, but the chance
for rain is only 20-40% at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR stratus has expected across rtes and is affecting all TAF
sites except ISO but is advecting toward them, so a period of
IFR cigs is probable through 13-14z. Cigs will begin to lift and
scatter out by mid morning with daytime heating. Otherwise
expect VFR conditions through the TAF period with NE winds
around 10 kt this afternoon. Probs for status are even lower
late tonight, around 20-30% in the HREF.

Outlook (Wednesday through Sat): Dry weather is expected to
prevail with pred VFR conditions, but could see patchy fog and
low stratus each morning. Winds will be light through the period
with high pres in vicinity.

&&

.MARINE...
The weak low offshore will continue to produce nerly winds
around 10-20 kt early this morning, then will gradually
diminish and veer to Ely late today and tonight. Seas will
generally be around 3-5 ft but have seen occasionally up to 6 ft
at Diamond Shoals Buoy so will continue the SCA for the central
waters through Tuesday night with WNA wave and NWPS keeping 6-7
ft seas across the outer portions of the zones.

Outlook (Wednesday through Saturday): The Bermuda high becomes
dominant mid to late week with light winds 5-15 kt and seas
around 2-4 ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ152-154.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SK/TL
AVIATION...SK/TL
MARINE...SK/TL