Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

918
FXUS62 KMHX 141037
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
637 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Temperatures have trended warmer for Friday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Above to well above normal temperatures will prevail through
the entire week with the potential for record breaking
temperatures each day through Saturday.

2) Worsening drought and fire weather conditions anticipated
over much of the upcoming week, with the next meaningful chance
of rain not until Sunday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Persistent upper level ridging and a warm
southwest low-level flow regime will continue to strongly favor
well above normal temperatures through the remainder of the
week. Each day will carry at least some potential for record-
tying or record-breaking temperatures. For a little context, one
of our forecast aids (the ECMWF`s Extreme Forecast Index -or-
EFI) continues to show a very strong signal for a stretch of
highly anomalous temperatures, with a focus from Wednesday
through Saturday. While above normal temperatures seem to be a
foregone conclusion, there may be some subtle, but important,
features that could impact just how hot each day gets. One is
cloudcover. The upper level ridge will flatten some today and
tomorrow, which will allow convective debris clouds from the
Plains to overspread the Carolinas. Like yesterday, that could
hold temps down some, preventing them from reaching the full
potential of the low-level thicknesses present. By Thursday, the
ridge is forecast to amplify again, with more of a southwest
flow aloft redeveloping. This suggests that the warmest day of
the week may be Thursday if that southwest flow can divert high
level clouds away from the area. Another potential caveat is a
weak front that may try to edge close to the area on Friday.
Given the strength of the ridge, it`s unlikely that this front
gets this far south, but a small cluster of guidance suggests
this may happen. If so, this could put a small dent in temps,
and may even allow a very low risk of a few showers. This
scenario appears unlikely, but is something we`ll be monitoring
in guidance through the week.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Drought conditions are expected to persist
through the foreseeable future with no rain in the forecast
until Sunday. Even then, rainfall amounts on Sunday currently
look to be less than a half an inch, which won`t have much of an
impact on the drought. The forecast area remains in a Severe
Drought (D2), with some pockets of Extreme Drought (D3) emerging
over the northern NC coastal plain. Precipitation deficits over
the last 60 days range from 3-6 inches, which will only
increase in the upcoming rain-free week. Growing vegetation and
leaf out will only increase the strain on ground water in the
coming weeks. While the forecast currently has conditions not
meeting criteria for fire danger statements, the very dry
conditions will continue to bring an elevated threat for
wildfires. It is also worth noting that breezy afternoon/evening
winds will be paired with relative humidities in the 30-40%
range. Again, this is above Fire Danger Statement criteria, but
given the increased sensitivities, it is worth a mention. The
NCFS continues a statewide burn ban until further notice.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Apart from some very shallow mist at OAJ, VFR conditions
ongoing across area terminals as high pressure sits over the
western Atlantic and extends over much of the southeastern
CONUS. Typical warm season pattern continues today with
increasing southwesterly flow and diurnal cumulus fields
developing by midday. Sea breeze will cross late afternoon into
early evening ushering a brief period of gusty southerly winds
up to 20 kt at times. Shortly after midnight, winds will return
more southwesterly at around 5 kt. Like the past couple nights,
if localized decoupling occurs some patchy shallow fog may
develop around the hours of 10-12z Wed morning.

Outlook: Pred VFR conditions expected through the period with a
more summertime pattern persisting through the week. Stronger
winds likely in the coming days with tightening thermal
gradient, most likely felt in the afternoons and evenings.

&&

.MARINE...
A pattern more typical of summer continues, with a daily chance
of 20-25kt winds over waters favored in southwest flow where
the thermal gradient is the strongest. This includes the Pamlico
Sound and nearby rivers and sounds. The hottest days with the
strongest thermal gradient may necessitate short-fused Small
Craft Advisories, but it appears that today will not be one of
those days.

For the coastal waters, seas of 2-4 ft will be common through
mid- week. Seas may approach 5 ft at times late in the week,
especially from Cape Hatteras south.

Outlook: A cold front is forecast to move through area waters
on Sunday. Ahead of the front, there should be an increased risk
of 25kt winds, with an even higher chance behind the front late
Sunday into Monday. Of note, some of the stronger guidance
suggests the potential for gale-force winds behind the front.
Stay tuned for updates on this frontal passage and the potential
marine impacts late in the weekend into early next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for 4/14 (Tuesday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        89/1948   (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   80/1994   (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      93/1922   (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   80/1996   (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         99/1930   (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    88/1977   (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 4/15 (Wednesday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        94/1972   (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   84/1922   (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      96/1922   (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   80/1964   (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         92/1941   (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    93/2006   (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 4/16 (Thursday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        92/1972   (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   78/1994   (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      92/1972   (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   82/2006   (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         92/2006   (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    91/1972   (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 4/17 (Friday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        91/1976   (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   83/2012   (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      92/1972   (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   82/1976   (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         91/1972   (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    91/2006   (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ196-204-
     205.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RM/RJ
AVIATION...MS
MARINE...RM