Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

842
FXUS62 KMHX 151850
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
150 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cold mornings continue through mid week, then temperatures
moderate by late-week.

2) Dry high pres continues through much of the coming week with warm
days but chilly nights and continued ongoing drought conditions.
Afternoon relative humidities will be quite low but winds light.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A sprawling area of high pressure will reside over
much of the Eastern U.S. through the upcoming week. Beneath the
high, cool low-level thicknesses and mostly clear skies should
support great radiational cooling conditions. Blended guidance
struggles to capture lows in good radiational setups like this, and
lows were dropped below blended guidance over the next few nights to
account for this. The coldest nights look to be Monday night and
Tuesday night. Despite many areas seeing frost/freeze impacts, the
program has been ended for much of ENC due to the widespread freeze
that occurred this morning. In light of that, any frost/freeze
headlines will be confined to Downeast Carteret County, Pamlico
County, Hyde County, and coastal Dare County. For those areas, it
looks like there will be just enough wind to prevent widespread
frost formation tonight. Lighter winds are expected Monday night and
Tuesday night, though, and frost headlines may be needed for those
nights where the frost/freeze program is still ongoing.

Low-level thicknesses will steadily warm mid to late week, and even
though high pressure will remain in place, highs and lows each day
should respond by trending up. By Thursday and Friday, 70s should
make a return appearance, especially away from the OBX. For the OBX,
highs will likely be tempered by a northeast or east flow off the
cooler waters of the Labrador Current.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A very dry airmass remaining in place over the
coming week will exacerbate the worsening drought conditions across
ENC. Fortunately winds are not expected to be strong with the high
nearby. However, fire weather concerns may grow with the curing
vegetation combined with low RH values each afternoon. Highs will
warm back to above climo in the upper 60s to low 70s mid to late
week, but overnight lows will continue quite chilly and below
climo.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecast confidence is high over the next 24 hours.

High pressure will remain in control of the weather throughout the
current TAF cycle. However, later this evening and tonight a subtle
surface trough is still forecast to move through the area with a
subtle wind shift and potentially a FEW/SCT layer of stratocumulus
clouds. The impact to aviation looks minimal.

Outlook: A sprawling area of high pressure is forecast to remain in
place throughout much of the upcoming week, keeping winds mostly
light and generally out of the north or northeast. There may be some
instances of reduced VIS due to MIFG/BR, but significant aviation
impacts are not anticipated.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure centered to the NW of ENC will keep a modest,
northerly flow (10-15kt) in place through Monday. Higher gusts can
be expected at times, especially this evening through Monday morning
as a weak surface boundary moves through. Seas of 3-5ft will be
common through Monday across the nearshore coastal waters, with 5-
7ft seas across the outer coastal waters.

Outlook: High pressure will assert its influence more by Tuesday and
Wednesday with winds laying down to 5-15kt out of the N or NE. Seas
will follow suite, eventually laying down to 2-4ft by Wednesday. 5-
15kt NE winds and seas of 2-5ft will then be common through the end
of the work week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RM/TL
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...RM