Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

708
FXUS62 KMHX 061420
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1020 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Have adjusted PoPs based on latest trends in Guidance.

Expanded Heat Advisory to cover all of eastern NC.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Oppressive heat and humidity continues today across ENC.

2) A more active pattern takes shape today and persists into
midweek, with showers and storms expected each day, some of
which could bring gusty winds and heavy rain.

3) Another round of dangerously high heat and humidity builds
mid to late week into the weekend.

4) A very unstable atmosphere develops in tandem with the high
heat and humidity mid to late in the week, and could produce a
few strong to severe thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Another warm and muggy day is expected with
ridging aloft decaying across the region and a surface trough
developing this afternoon across central NC. An inland moving
seabreeze will also develop later this morning. Have blended in
some Hi-Res and MOS guidance with the NBM temps today which has
lowered MaxTs by a degree or two especially along the OBX and
immediate coast. Shower and thunderstorm activity is forecast to
develop later this morning and afternoon along the seabreeze
and to the west along the aforementioned surface trough which
should help to keep highs today slightly cooler than previous
days. Given all of the above, have a temp gradient from W to E
across the CWA with mid 90s noted across the western Coastal
Plain which should see the most sun today and upper 80s noted
along the coast and OBX where showers and thunderstorms start
the earliest. With dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s (highest
along the coast), this is forecast to bring heat indices around
100-105F across all zones today with the highest heat indices
noted across our SW`rn zones. As a result the heat advisory has
been expanded to include the entire county warning area. The
one spoiler to the heat advisory will be the potential for
shower and thunderstorm activity to develop earlier in the day
across these counties.

KEY MESSAGE 2...An active precip pattern finally sets up again
today and persists into Wed as a series of shortwaves, inland
troughing, and a very slow moving backdoor front will converge
to produce higher than climo coverage of showers and storms each
afternoon to early evening. Guidance continues to suggest PoPs
remain around the 50-70% range each afternoon and evening.
While PoP`s will be higher than they have been the past several
days, precip will certainly be very hit or miss across ENC, but
much welcome none the less.

Will see PWATS jump to 2+ inches across ENC starting today with
this very moist airmass remaining in place over the next few
days. Combined with ample heating across ENC, instability will
rapidly build each day with MLCAPE values generally expected to
be between 2000-3000+ J/kg each afternoon. While instability
will certainly be plentiful, deep layer shear will not be, as
wind shear struggles to get above 25 kts. This will likely limit
any significant storm organization over the next few days but
cannot rule out some wet microbursts or stronger winds (40-60
mph) within the strongest storms along the aforementioned
seabreeze and surface trough. Because of this, SPC has outlined
a good portion of ENC in a Marginal Risk (1/5) of severe tstorms
today and tomorrow. Another round of decent covg of afternoon
showers/storms possible Wed as the aforementioned boundaries may
still be in place. In addition to the severe threat today and
tomorrow, there will also be a heavy rain threat with any
thunderstorm that develops as well given the high PWAT`s (2" +)
which could lead to some localized flooding mainly in poor
drainage and urban areas. As a result WPC also has much of the
area under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall over the next
two days as well.

Beyond mid week, PoPs return back to climo (20-40%) as more
typical seabreeze showers/storms return. Hts/thicknesses slowly
build in the process as ridging begins to build once again, with
heat indices 100-105 in the forecast.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Aforementioned ridging builds mid to late week
into the weekend, as ensemble mean heights rise back to above
normal, and forecast temps reach well into the 90s, pushing heat
indices to potentially at or above 105F again as a very humid
atmosphere will be in place as well. EFI for both Min/MaxTs are
pushing into the 80th percentile esp late in the week.

KEY MESSAGE 4...With the aforementioned high heat and humidity
expected, a very unstable atmosphere develops per med range
guidance hinting at ML CAPES aoa 3.5k J/KG, and SFC based
instability between 4-5k J/KG. As is typical this time of year,
deep layer shear will not be too strong, but any storms that can
develop with some upper level support could produce strong
downdraft/microburst winds and very heavy rain characterized by
PW`s exceeding 2".

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A mixed bag of ceilings and visibility across the Coastal Plain
this morning as patchy fog and low stratus has overspread the
area bringing a mix of MVFR to LIFR conditions. Currently as
expected OAJ and adjacent areas are seeing LIFR vis with a mix
of IFR/MVFR ceilings noted at ISO/EWN this morning. All fog and
low stratus is forecast to burn off within the next hour or so
resulting in widespread VFR across ENC later this morning.

Then as we get into the late morning and afternoon hours
guidance continues to suggest scattered shower and thunderstorms
develop along the seabreeze with activity starting closer to
the coast first then spreading inland this afternoon. This
activity will result in brief periods of sub-VFR ceilings/vis
as storms move over TAF sites. Have handled this with TEMPO
groups for all TAF sites with EWN/OAJ starting between 18-22Z
and ISO/PGV between 19-23Z today. After sunset any leftover
showers and storms will dissipate bringing VFR conditions back
briefly. Another round of fog and low stratus will once again be
possible later tonight as the area remains under a moist
airmass.

Outlook (Tue through Fri): Shortwave energy tracking cross the
region into midweek brings good chances for showers and
thunderstorms and potential for sub-VFR conditions into Tue,
possibly into Wed as well. Beyond mid week, more typical iso to
widely sct activity expected as ridging rebuilds into ENC.

&&

.MARINE...
Steady 10-15 kt SW`rly winds with gusts up around 15-20 kts is
noted across our waters this morning while seas along the
coastal waters remain around 2-4 ft. These conditions should
continue to persist today as Bermuda high remains offshore and a
front slowly begins to approach. As this front begins to get a
little closer tonight winds especially across the Pamlico Sound
and coastal waters south of Oregon inlet should increase
slightly with gusts up to 25 kts possible across the
aforementioned waters. As a result have kept the SCA`s up across
these waters starting around 10PM tonight and persisting into
Tue morning. Seas will also build to about 3-5 ft during this
timeframe with some 6 ft seas possible 20+ NM away from shore.

Outlook (Tue through Fri): The gradient relaxes Tue morning
with winds returning to 5-15 kt. Weakening front moves into the
waters on Wed, though as is typical in July, the front appears
to wash out, with any N`rly flow behind it short lived with
return flow developing as early as Wed evening. SW`rly winds
look to strengthen some on Fri as a thermal trough strengthens
across the area bringing our next potential threat for SCA`s to
the waters.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ029-044>047-
     079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
     Tuesday for AMZ135-156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Tuesday
     for AMZ152-154.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RCF
AVIATION...RTE/RCF
MARINE...RCF