Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

337
FXUS62 KMHX 031049
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
649 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes since the previous update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Marginal risk of increased fire danger across the coastal
plain today.

2) Mostly dry with above normal temperatures through Saturday.

3) A cold front will push through the area late this weekend
into early next week, bringing increasing rain chances, cooler
temperatures, and the next best chance for marine headlines.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...NCFS burn ban remains in effect statewide until
further notice. Fire weather risk will be marginal for the next
few days, and IFD issuance may still be needed in subsequent
forecasts. Fire weather concerns could continue next week as
drier airmass settles in. Concerns will likely hinge on
rainfall amounts Sun and Sun night.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Mostly dry with above normal temps will continue
through Sat, with high pressure anchored offshore. Though
isolated diurnal showers will be possible each day given the
pattern, the chance is too low to include in explicit forecast.
Above normal temperatures will continue into the weekend, with
high temps mostly in the low to mid 80s inland and 70s for the
beaches. MinTs generally around 60. A few records could be
threatened the next few days - see the CLIMATE section for
details.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A cold front will approach the area Sunday,
moving through later Sunday evening into early Monday.
Increasing shower chances Sunday and Sunday night, along with
isolated thunderstorm potential ahead of the front. Instability
still looks meager at best, so svr risk still looks low at this
time. QPF amounts are trending somewhat lower from the previous
forecast but forcing still appears strong enough to warrant
continued categorical PoPs for the period. NBM has caught on to
the trend in deterministic guidance of the low pressure system
expected to develop and travel along the front early next week,
passing far enough offshore to keep the area mostly dry early
next week. Low level thickness values and N-NE flow behind the
front will lead to below normal temps with highs mostly in the
60s early next week, then warming late week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As expected some patchy ground fog has developed along the
Crystal Coast with no impact to operations at the affected TAF
sites (EWN/OAJ). Any leftover ground fog is forecast to quickly
dissipate by 13Z at the latest.

Otherwise expecting a primarily VFR TAF through the period.
Much like the previous few days, a diurnal Cu field develops
across ENC by mid morning. Ceilings likely remain somewhere
between 3.5-4.5 kft and cloud deck is either SCT/BKN this
afternoon before clouds dissipate this evening giving way to mo
clear skies tonight. South winds may occasionally gust up to
15-20kt during the afternoon, but sustained, and frequent,
gusts to 20kt are not expected. Winds quickly ease after sunset
falling to 5-10 kts tonight. Once again may see a threat of yet
another round of ground fog/seafog tonight into Sat as well
given similar weather pattern. Given overall low end impact have
not put it in the TAFs just yet but this may become necessary on
incoming TAF cycles.

Outlook: We do remain under VFR conditions through Sat. Best
chance for sub VFR conditions occurs Sun into Sun night with a
frontal passage. This front will bring a threat for low clouds
and reduced visibility as SHRA/TSRA impacts the area. Gusty
winds out ahead of the front on Sun will also be possible with
gusts up around 20-25 kt currently forecast. Winds do ease Sun
night but will shift from a SW to NW direction behind the
frontal passage. Lighter winds and VFR conditions then return
early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs show S winds generally 5-15 kt with seas 2-5 ft.
High pressure will remain anchored offshore through the first
half of the weekend, keeping light to moderate S-SWerly winds in
place through the period. SSW winds 5-15 kt will continue into
tonight, gusting up to 20kt during peak heating. Patchy sea fog
will be possible across the northern waters overnight into later
this morning. This fog could be dense at times and conditions
will need to be monitored for possible Marine Dense Fog Advisory
issuance.

Outlook (Saturday into Wednesday): SSW winds will increase
through the day Sat into Sunday ahead of an approaching cold
front. FROPA is expected late SUN into MON, which is the next
best chance of SCA conditions both ahead of and behind the
front. SCA conditions could begin as early as Saturday night. A
minority of guidance does depict a minor risk of gales (10-20%),
although this is confined to the warmer Gulf Stream waters.
Front will be accompanied with showers and tstorms. N-NE winds
will develop behind the front and continue through mid next
week, which could bring more SCA conditions.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for 4/3 (today)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        89/1963   (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   79/1974   (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      90/1967   (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   81/2007   (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         90/1934   (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    89/1967   (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 4/4 (Saturday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        92/1934   (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   78/1945   (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      90/1967   (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   80/2007   (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         92/1934   (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    89/1963   (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CQD
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...CQD