Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

802
FXUS62 KMHX 061833
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
233 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increased PoPs through Wednesday. Added patchy fog mentions for
early Tuesday morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Oppressive heat and humidity continues today across ENC.

2) A more active pattern takes shape today and persists into
midweek, with showers and storms expected each day, some of
which could bring gusty winds and heavy rain.

3) Another round of dangerously high heat and humidity builds
mid to late week into the weekend.

4) A very unstable atmosphere develops in tandem with the high
heat and humidity mid to late in the week, and could produce a
few strong to severe thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Another warm and muggy day is occuring with
ridging aloft decaying across the region and a surface trough
developing this afternoon across central NC. Highs are slightly
cooler from previous days, but much higher dewpoints, near 80
along the coast and mid 70s inland, are bringing widespread heat
indices near 105F. Heat advisory remains in effect until 8 PM
for the entire CWA. As showers and thunderstorms fill in along
and ahead of the sea breeze this afternoon through the evening,
temps will drop with it.

KEY MESSAGE 2...An active precip pattern has set up today and
persists into Wed as a series of shortwaves, inland troughing,
and a very slow moving backdoor front will converge to produce
higher than climo coverage of showers and storms each afternoon
to early evening. Guidance continues to suggest PoPs remain
around the 50-80% range each afternoon and evening. While PoP`s
will be higher than they have been the past several days,
precip will certainly be very hit or miss across ENC, but much
welcome none the less.

A change from the previous update is the addition of PoPs
tonight. Scattered convection inland closer to I-95 this evening
will sweep east, potentially in a linear fashion, around or
after midnight. A quick burst of heavy rain is expected along
it, should the line materialize. Low level inversion overnight
should help prevent stronger winds from slipping down, but an
isolated 20-40 mph gust is not out of the question.

Have seen PWATS jump to 2+ inches across ENC today with this
very moist airmass remaining in place over the next few days.
Combined with ample heating across ENC, instability will rapidly
build each day with MLCAPE values generally expected to be
between 2000-3000+ J/kg each afternoon. While instability will
certainly be plentiful, deep layer shear will not be, as wind
shear struggles to get above 25 kts. This will likely limit any
significant storm organization over the next few days but cannot
rule out some wet microbursts or stronger winds (40-60 mph)
within the strongest storms along the aforementioned seabreeze
and surface trough. Because of this, SPC has outlined a good
portion of ENC in a Marginal Risk (1/5) of severe tstorms today
and tomorrow. Another round of decent covg of afternoon
showers/storms possible Wed as the aforementioned boundaries may
still be in place. In addition to the severe threat today and
tomorrow, there will also be a heavy rain threat with any
thunderstorm that develops as well given the high PWAT`s (2" +)
and slow storm motions which could lead to some localized
flooding mainly in poor drainage and urban areas. As a result
WPC also has much of the area under a marginal risk for
excessive rainfall over the next two days as well.

Beyond mid week, PoPs return back to climo (20-40%) as more
typical seabreeze showers/storms return. Hts/thicknesses slowly
build in the process as ridging begins to build once again, with
heat indices 100-105 in the forecast.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Aforementioned ridging builds mid to late week
into the weekend, as ensemble mean heights rise back to above
normal, and forecast temps reach well into the 90s, pushing heat
indices to potentially at or above 105F again as a very humid
atmosphere will be in place as well. EFI for both Min/MaxTs are
pushing into the 80th percentile esp late in the week.

KEY MESSAGE 4...With the aforementioned high heat and humidity
expected, a very unstable atmosphere develops per med range
guidance hinting at ML CAPES aoa 3.5k J/KG, and SFC based
instability between 4-5k J/KG. As is typical this time of year,
deep layer shear will not be too strong, but any storms that can
develop with some upper level support could produce strong
downdraft/microburst winds and very heavy rain characterized by
PW`s exceeding 2".

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Generally VFR ceilings this afternoon, with thunderstorm
coverage increasing along and out ahead of a sea breeze that is
progressing inland. Have TEMPO TS mentions at all TAF sites this
afternoon and evening with VCTS predominant. As we get into
tonight, another round of thunderstorms is possible as a cluster
or line moves west to east. have PROB30s in the TAFs to handle
this, as there is some uncertainty on how the afternoon
convection influences the potential overnight convection. Any
thunderstorms will be capable of producing reductions in
visibility and ceilings.

Another round of fog and low stratus will once again be
possible later tonight behind the convection as the area
remains under a moist airmass.

Outlook (Tue through Fri): Shortwave energy tracking cross the
region into midweek brings good chances for showers and
thunderstorms and potential for sub-VFR conditions into Tue,
possibly into Wed as well. Beyond mid week, more typical iso to
widely sct activity expected as ridging rebuilds into ENC.

&&

.MARINE...
Steady 10-15 kt SW`rly winds with gusts up around 15-20 kts is
noted across our waters this afternoon while seas along the
coastal waters remain around 2-4 ft. These conditions should
continue to persist today as Bermuda high remains offshore and a
front slowly begins to approach. As this front begins to get a
little closer tonight winds especially across the Pamlico Sound
and coastal waters south of Oregon inlet should increase
slightly with gusts up to 25 kts possible across the
aforementioned waters. As a result have kept the SCA`s up across
these waters starting around 10PM tonight and persisting into
Tue morning. Seas will also build to about 3-5 ft during this
timeframe with some 6 ft seas possible 20+ NM away from shore.

Outlook (Tue through Fri): The gradient relaxes Tue morning
with winds returning to 5-15 kt. Weakening front moves into the
waters on Wed, though as is typical in July, the front appears
to wash out, with any N`rly flow behind it short lived with
return flow developing as early as Wed evening. SW`rly winds
look to strengthen some on Fri as a thermal trough strengthens
across the area bringing our next potential threat for SCA`s to
the waters.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ029-044>047-
     079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
     Tuesday for AMZ135-156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Tuesday
     for AMZ152-154.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RCF/RJ
AVIATION...RCF/RJ
MARINE...RCF/RJ