Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

793
FXUS62 KMHX 132245
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
545 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Update: Expanded SCA`s to Pamlico/Albemarle sounds and
Alligator River tonight into Sat morning.

A Frost Advisory has been issued for the far western row of ENC
counties for late tonight into early Saturday morning.

The chance of showers was slightly increased for this evening and
early tonight.

Small Craft Advisories were issued for portions of the central and
northern waters for late tonight into Saturday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered showers to accompany a cold front this evening.

2) Frost/freeze impacts expected this weekend.

Marine: Gusty N to NW winds with strongly mixed CAA winds tonight
into Sat morning with SCA`s for all zones except the Neuse and
Pamlico Rivers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A potent upper level shortwave will pivot through
the Carolinas this evening, with an accompanying area of moderate
low-mid level frontogenesis. The area of enhanced lift associated
with the wave and frontal forcing will overlap with an area of
moderate low-mid level moistening and steep lapse rates this
evening. While moisture isn`t great, short-term guidance insists on
shower development from around sunset this evening to around
midnight tonight. This appears to be a scenario where lift and
slantwise instability should be able to overcome the lack of better
moisture, and make use of whatever moisture is available. Elevated
instability is forecast to be lower than last evening, therefore the
risk of lightning looks to be lower. Significant rainfall is not
expected with these showers.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong surface high will build in over the weekend
and will be accompanied by a colder than normal airmass. This should
support below to well below normal temperatures, both during the day
and at night. Behind tonight`s cold front, it now looks like there
is just enough of a chance for winds to decouple well inland as lows
fall into the low to mid 30s. This increases the odds for frost
development, and a Frost Advisory has been issued for late tonight
into early Saturday morning for the western row of ENC counties.
East of there, low to mid 30s appears possible as well, but
confidence in winds decoupling enough for frost formation is lower,
therefore the Advisory does not include those counties.

The coldest thicknesses associated with this airmass will settle in
Saturday night. With strong high pressure overhead and good
radiational cooling conditions, the stage is set for lows in the
upper 20s to low 30s for many inland areas away from the influence
of water. A Freeze Watch remains in effect for those areas for
Saturday night into Sunday morning. A Frost Advisory may be needed
for some counties bordering the watch area if winds decouple enough.
This weekend may end the frost/freeze program for some counties, but
for the rest, some frost/freeze potential may continue into early
next week as high pressure continues to support good radiational
cooling conditions in tandem with cold low-level thicknesses. The
airmass is forecast to moderate some, though, but probably not
drastically so given a mostly unchanged synoptic pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cold front drops through tonight and will be accompanied by an
area of enhanced low- mid level lift, weak instability, and
modest moisture. Similar to yesterday and last evening, another
round of SCT SHRA appears likely this evening into the early
portion of tonight. Where SHRA occur, brief reductions in VIS
are likely, and PROB30s have been added where confidence in SHRA
is the highest acrs nrn terminals. For now, though, the risk of
sub- VFR CIGs appears low. The front will be accompanied by a
modest WNW to NW wind shift. Winds will gust on Sat with strong
mixing in place.

Outlook (Sun through Wed): Yet another weak front/surface
trough is forecast to move through late Sunday into Sunday night
with a NW to NNE wind shift. This front isn`t forecast to have
nearly as much lift or moisture with it, and the risk of SHRA
appears much lower. Otherwise, VFR conditions look to prevail
into next week with dry airmass in place.

&&

.MARINE...
Update: Have inc winds across the marine domain with strong CAA
expected tonight into early Sat. 13/12Z REFS probs for SCA gusts
(>25 kt) are 80-90% for the sounds and Alligator, and with well
mixed boundary layer with relatively warm SST`s and cold
incoming airmass, the strong mixing from aloft will easily allow
for wind gusts into the 25-30 kt range overnight into Sat
morning. Ocnl gusts to 25 kt are possible at the mouth of the
Neuse, though not-ideal fetch from the N to NW will leave out of
the SCA suite attm. In addition, have inc seas by several ft for
the nrn and ctrl waters due to the N winds being much too
underdone on NWPS. used a blend of NBM/WWIV to populate seas
which will build to 6-8 ft with the strong nrly winds.

Relatively light winds of 5-15kt this afternoon will rebuild to 15-
25kt by tonight as yet another cold front moves south through the
area. The greatest risk of 25kt winds with this next surge of wind
looks to be across portions of the central and northern waters, and
a new suite of Small Craft Advisories have been issued to account
for this. Of note, the only non-coastal waters included in the
advisory for now are the Croatan and Roanoke Sounds as some
funneling may enhance winds in that area. It`s possible the advisory
will need to be expanded west some to include other inland
rivers/sounds, but guidance has been fairly consistent showing sub-
25kt winds west of the current advisory area.

For the coastal waters, seas of 3-5ft this afternoon will build to 5-
8ft across the central and northern waters, and the outer coastal
southern waters. Elsewhere, seas of 3-5ft will be common.

Outlook: Modest north to northeast winds of 10-15kt, with higher
gusts, will be the theme going into next week as high pressure is
anchored to the north, and low pressure develops well offshore to
the SE of ENC. Seas will generally be 2-4ft nearshore, and 3-5ft
offshore.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM EST Saturday for NCZ029-044-
     079-090-091.
     Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning
     for NCZ029-044-045-079-080-090>092-193-198.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST
     Saturday for AMZ131-230.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to noon EST
     Saturday for AMZ135-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight EST
     Saturday night for AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RM/TL
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...RM/TL