Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

289
FXUS62 KMHX 060610
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
110 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Higher confidence in scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday
and into early next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dense fog threat will return along the coast tonight and
persist for the next few overnight periods.

2) Well above normal to near record conditions expected
through early next week with high pressure ridging offshore.

Aviation...Increased risk of IFR/LIFR conditions late this
evening into Friday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Pattern across the CONUS remains stagnant,
especially over the eastern portion of the country with
pronounced mid-level ridging and persistent moist low-level
southwesterly flow. After hanging on for much of the morning,
lingering near-shore sea fog has lifted and all areas have good
visibility today. Persistence forecast is the name of the game
day with no change in the pattern except for even higher dew
points, with fog developing close to midnight and hanging on
into the morning hours with coastal areas likely socked in
longer. Highest risk for lowest visibilities is areas along and
south of US 70.

A similar pattern will continue for the next couple of days,
and sea fog will likely persist in some fashion into Sunday
morning. Expect the most widespread areas of fog to develop at
night, especially after midnight, and fog could extend inland
from the coast at times.

KEY MESSAGE 2...An anomalously strong ridge remain in place over
the southeastern CONUS into early next week. This will bring
near record temperatures possible for some inland zones some
afternoons, especially tomorrow through this weekend (see
Climate Section below). Highs will reach the upper 70s/low 80s
generally along and west of US 17, and upper 60s/low 70s closer
to the coast. The immediate coast will remain cooler due to very
cold ocean/sound temperatures.

Latest forecast trends show a weak front moving into the
Carolinas late this weekend and into early next week, bringing
the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms...though
it looks like well above normal temps will continue.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Not much has changed since the previous update as yet another
round of fog and low stratus is forecast across ENC especially
across areas along and south of Hwy 70 where there is greatest
confidence in this occuring. We have already seen a few ASOS
sites in Duplin County begin to show low stratus with IFR
ceilings noted at KDPL as of this update and some isolated
seafog noted across Onslow Bay. Current expectation is for this
to expand with most of the low stratus and fog developing after
07-10Z across the CWA. Latest HREF probs show a 40-60% chance of
seeing visibilities of less than 0.5 miles at EWN/OAJ and a
20-30% chance closer to the ISO/PGV terminals. As a result,
have lowest visibility and cigs noted along and south of Hwy 70
this morning. Seafog is not as widespread as it was last night
but expect at least a chance at some seafog across the same
areas that saw it last night which could also push inland along
the Crystal Coast and adjacent airfields. Inland areas may not
see fog develop until early tomorrow morning, but a brief drop
to LIFR VIS is still possible around sunrise. Vis and cigs
should return to VFR by mid-morning (13-15Z) except for the
immediate coast where lingering sea fog could keep MVFR VIS
through early afternoon (15-17Z). Once conditions go VFR outside
of some diurnal Cu at 3.5-4 kft, expect to remain VFR once
again until Fri night when yet another chance at some IFR/LIFR
cigs/vis will occur as fog and seafog potentially develop yet
again. Winds will remain southwesterly at 5-15kt across much of
the area into Fri night. The lone exception will be across the
NOBX near KFFA where a backdoor cold front may shift winds to
more of an E-NE direction.

Outlook: A cold front will move into the area on Sunday,
leading to a change in the weather pattern, but also bringing
with it an increased risk of SHRA and TSRA. This risk may linger
into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
SEA FOG: Persistence forecast remains for sea fog tonight,
following the pattern of the previous nights. Sea fog will
likely redevelop this evening in moist and anomalously warm
southwesterly flow, eventually expanding overnight and bleeding
into inland areas. A similar pattern will continue for the next
couple of days, and sea fog will likely persist in some fashion
into Sunday morning. Expect the most widespread areas of fog to
develop at night, especially after midnight.

WINDS/SEAS: Pleasant boating conditions are expected (outside of
fog) for the next couple of days with high pressure offshore.
Winds will be SSW/SW at 5-15 kts and seas 3-5 ft.

Outlook: Good boating conditions continue into this weekend.
Winds generally be 10-20 kts out of the S/SW as high pressure
remains offshore. The pressure gradient will tighten Sunday and
into early next week as a front move into the area, and
winds/seas will approach Small Craft criteria for portions of
the marine area. A stronger front may cross the region in the
middle of next week, although significant timing and intensity
differences remain.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for 03/06 (Friday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern      85/1961  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 76/1992  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville    84/1961  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 74/1992  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston       85/1976  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville  82/1961  (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 03/07 (Saturday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern      89/1974  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 74/2022  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville    84/1961  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 74/1991  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston       86/1908  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville  85/1974  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SGK
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...SGK