Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

964
FXUS62 KMHX 101900
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
300 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Continued to trend lower on rain totals.

Trended lower on inland thunder chances overnight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Wet and breezy weekend is expected as deep tropical moisture
overruns the Carolinas. Periods of heavy rain likely, focused
along the coast, with gusty winds along the coast.

2) An isolated tornado risk in embedded thunderstorms is
possible tonight for southern/eastern areas, and for inland
areas Sunday afternoon.

3) Elevated water levels and high surf concerns for coastal
communities this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A plume of tropical moisture characterized by
2"+ PWATs and dewpoints in the 70s is forecast to continue to
overspread the Carolinas to the east of the northward-advancing
remnants of TC Isaias. At the surface, a warm front/coastal
trough will trudge north along the southeastern coastline,
likely with a weak, non- tropical area of low pressure
developing along it. Now it appears the main axis of convection
will remain over the Gulf Stream, with heavy storms offshore
robbing some of the rich moisture advection into ENC. This has
been a notable trend with most of the CAMs, and the 10/12Z
guidance continues this trend. For this reason, have cont to
trend down with QPF for the area. Most model estimates of
several inches along the immediate coast, with much lower amts
less than an inch or so for the interior Coastal Plain counties.
Will continue Flood Watch for areas along the coast, effective
through through early Sun afternoon, though bulk of widespread
rain will be over by Sun morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Possibility of convective elements reaching the
coast would warrant a tornado risk later this evening and esp
overnight as the aforementioned warm front lifts through ENC.
Plenty of low level helicity in place with the inc serly flow in
place and strong veering wind profile downstairs. The greatest
tor threat would likely be focused near the srn/sern coast where
some better instability advects onshore. For Sunday, flow
becomes more unidirectional with swrly low level winds ensuing
during the afternoon. While helicity wanes, better instability
will be in place due to daytime highs expected in the low 80s
and TD`s surging through the mid 70s. Will have to watch for
a severe threat Sunday afternoon ahead of the cold front, with
best chances appearing for the interior zones, where NCAR/HRRR
svr probs are highest.

The remnants of Isaias are forecast to round the upper level
ridge and move off the Northern Mid-Atlantic Coast early next
week. Drier air then moves in behind it with drying conditions
developing Sun night into Mon.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Strengthening onshore erly winds, building
seas, and higher than normal astronomical tides may support some
coastal impacts through early Mon. There remains uncertainty on
the magnitude of impacts, especially given the shorter-duration
of the stronger winds, as well as what should be a weaker swell
and periodicity compared to the recent Nor`easter. With that in
mind, there will be an increased risk of rip currents and large
waves, at a minimum. High Surf Advisory remains in effect
between Ocracoke and Oregon Inlets focused overnight into
Sunday. Additionally, some of the most vulnerable locations
along the Outer Banks may see at least some minor issues,
especially with Sunday morning`s high tide (7-9am). There may
also be some very minor (sub advisory) coastal flooding around
sounds and tidal waterways around the Crystal Coast due to the
higher astronomical tides.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A mix of IFR/MVFR/VFR early this afternoon should become
primarily MVFR and then IFR for all locales this evening through
the overnight. Periods of rain will bring vsbys down to 3-5 sm
ocnl, with thunder threat mainly east of the TAF sites
overnight. Nerly gradient winds through this evening with ocnl
gusts to around 20 kt, somewhat higher for KMRH. The east winds
will veer arond to the south late tonight and into Sun morning,
though IFR will be slow to erode through the morning hours. Some
thunder is possible Sun afternoon ahead of an approaching cold
front, though coverage and chances will be dicated by how much
cloud cover there is in the morning. More clouds will act to
suppress the thunder threat.

Outlook (Mon through Thu): The shower threat will end by Sun
evening as the front sweeps east and eventually off the coast
later Sun night. Mostly VFR conditions will ensue for beginning
to mid week as high pres builds in.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs show E winds continuing but strengthening across the
waters. Speeds range from 25-35 kt south of C Lookout to 15-25
kt to the north. The stronger E winds will advect northward and
spread up the NC coast with gales eventually reaching the
northern waters, albeit brief, late tonight. For the sounds and
rivers, SCA winds develop with these nerly pinched gradient
winds though remain below gale force. Seas will peak at 7-11 ft
tonight. The stronger East winds will grad weaken from south to
north overnight and early Sun, gradually veering se and then
south behind the northward advancing warm front. Gales remain
for the outer waters with this swrly flow through Sunday night.

For the convection threat, strong to severe thunderstorms
containing waterspouts are possible tonight into early Sun
morning over the Gulf Stream waters as low pres travels along a
slow moving warm front. After a break in storms Sunday morning,
additional showers and storms are possible later Sun afternoon
into the evening ahead of a cold front, with precipitation
finally clearing eastward later Sun night.

Outlook (Mon through Thu): Behind a cold front Sunday night,
gusty wrly winds are expected to develop, with SCA conditions
for most of the sounds and nearshore coastal waters through
Monday morning. High pres eventually builds in later Mon through
mid week, with winds and seas diminishing.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for NCZ047-081-092-094-
     194>196-198-199-203>205.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-199-203>205.
     High Surf Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Sunday
     for NCZ204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT
     Sunday for AMZ131-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Sunday night for
     AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ136-137.
     Gale Warning from midnight tonight to noon EDT Sunday for
     AMZ150-180.
     Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Sunday for
     AMZ152-154.
     Gale Warning until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ156-158-186-188.
     Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Sunday for
     AMZ182-184.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CQD/TL
AVIATION...TL
MARINE...CQD/TL