Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

548
FXUS62 KMHX 111852
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
252 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Forecast trending drier tomorrow morning.

Marine...Gale Warnings and SCA advisories issued for area waters
tomorrow afternoon and evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A strong cold front on Thursday will bring gusty winds,
widespread rain, and a few thunderstorms - some which could be
strong. Low probability (10-20%) of flurries tomorrow evening.

2) Temperatures rebound this weekend ahead of a strong cold
front early next week

Marine...Confidence is increasing for a strong cold front to bring
hazardous marine conditions to the area tomorrow afternoon and
evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...As a potent upper level shortwave moves east
through the Mid-Atlantic tomorrow, a strong cold front will
track across ENC and bring gusty winds, widespread rain, and a
few thunderstorms. Given that the FROPA is expected to reach the
area ahead of peak heating, instability will be limited - the
HREF average SBCAPE is under 500 J/kg, but a worst case scenario
could see values closer to 750 J/kg in more robust pre-frontal
warming. SRH and deep layer shear, on the other hand, will be
plentiful with average forecast 0-6 km shear in excess of 50-55
kt. While this high shear/low CAPE environment is not a slam
dunk for severe storms, there`s still a non-zero risk of a few
strong gusts north of 50 mph. Hodographs to not appear very
favorable for tornadoes, but a brief tornado is not out of the
question in mesoscale boundary interactions. The most likely
scenario is widespread showers with a few embedded thunderstorms
during the afternoon and evening tomorrow.

Of note, a small minority of guidance (WRF ARW and NSSL) is
showing a brief changeover to winter precip tomorrow evening on
the backside of the front. In regimes where cold air is chasing
the moisture, forecasts for winter precip is usually too
aggressive. For now, our forecast calls for all rain but trends
will continue to be monitored overnight.

KEY MESSAGE 2...We`ll still be warmer than average behind
tomorrow`s front, but we`ll feel a notable drop in
temperatures with a change as high as 10F/hr immediately behind
the front. Friday will reach the low/mid 60s and we`ll rebound
to the mid 60s to mid 70s on Sunday and Monday. A deep upper
level trough will dig across the CONUS late this weekend and
reach the East Coast by early next week. At the surface, a
strong cold front will cross the area late Monday/early Tuesday.
This system will bring increased shower and thunderstorm
chances Sunday through Monday night with a slightly stronger
signal for severe thunderstorms than Thursday`s front. A
significantly cooler airmass will build in behind this front
with highs on Tuesday and Wednesday forecast to be in the 40s
and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Pred VFR conditions expected at the TAF sites through much of
the TAF period. SW winds have become gusty this afternoon with the
inversion breaking with gusts to around 20-25 kt. Moderate SW
winds around 10-15 kt continue tonight with higher gusts
possible at times. The low level jet at 1-2kft increases
tonight as a frontal system approaches from the west. The LLWS
threat subsides a bit after 14Z Thursday as daytime heating
erodes the inversion and gusty winds 20-30 kt reach the surface
instead of being stuck at the 1-2 kft level. Along a cold front
passage Thursday we will see a line of quick moving moderate to
heavy showers, and a few thunderstorms. In these showers, drops
in vis/cigs to IFR levels are possible. Just behind the front
Thursday afternoon, gusty SW winds quickly shift to become gusty
N/NW winds.

Outlook...Sub-VFR expected Thursday with scattered to numerous
showers, isolated storms and gusty winds along a cold front. Low
stratus may build in behind the front for Thursday night/Friday
morning. Pred VFR to return Fri later Friday into the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Light southerly winds of 10-15 kt and 2-3 ft seas are expected
to continue into early this evening. Conditions will then
deteriorate ahead of an approaching cold front that will pass on
tomorrow. Tonight, southwesterly winds will increase to 20-25
kt with gusts to 25-30 kt. Seas will build to 4-6 ft north of
Cape Hatteras and 4-7 ft to the south. Early tomorrow afternoon,
a cold front will move across the area and veer the winds to
the north-northwest. The post- frontal north-northwesterly winds
will surge to 25-30+ kt with gusts to 35 kt, which will peak
tomorrow afternoon/evening. In response, seas will build to 4-8
ft. Gale Warnings have been posted for all offshore waters and
the Pamlico Sound. Predominantly SCA conditions will prevail
over remaining sounds and waters. For the Albemarle, Croatan and
Roanoke sounds, a short jump of winds up to 35 kt are possible
in the immediate hour following frontal passage.

Additionally, the cold front will be accompanied by a risk of
thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon and evening, the strongest of
which may produce enhanced wind gusts and brief waterspouts.

Outlook: Winds and seas will lay down Friday and Saturday with more
benign marine conditions expected. Winds and seas will rebuild
Sunday into Monday associated with the next strong cold front.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for 3/11 (Wednesday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        86/2015  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   73/1982  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      83/2016  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   83/1974  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         84/2000,2015  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    86/2015  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ131-
     136-137-230-231.
     Gale Warning from 3 PM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ135-150.
     Gale Warning from 3 PM to 11 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MS/OJC
AVIATION...RJ
MARINE...MS/RJ