Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

886
FXUS62 KMHX 091833
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
233 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation Disco updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Summertime pattern continues over the next several days with
daily chances for shower and thunderstorm activity. An extended
period of hot temperatures are also expected this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Heat will be the name of the game over the next few
days as the Bermuda high centered off the coast will slide S`wards
towards the Gulf Coast States while a thermal trough remains
over the Piedmont. This will keep low level flow generally SW to
W over the next several days. As a result, some weak WAA will
allow low level thicknesses to increase closer to 1430m. Based
off the offices climatological study this is forecast to result
in highs in the low to mid 90s across the inland areas and upper
80s to low 90s along the OBX and coast into the end of the week
before a front impacts the region resulting in cooler
temperatures late week into the weekend. The hottest days will
be on Tue through Thurs. With dewpoints forecast to range from
the lower 70s to upper 70s will result in heat indices around
95-104F this afternoon and again on Mon with heat indices closer
to 100-110F on Tue through Thurs resulting in a chance for heat
headlines later this week. Lows each night will be in the 70s
which won`t provide much relief from the heat either. Even if we
don`t reach official criteria in the coming days it will be hot
and humid resulting in ENC reaching major heat risk thresholds
on Monday with some of the area potentially seeing extreme heat
risk levels Tue/Wed. We encourage anyone planning on spending
alot of time outdoors this week to take proper precautions and
stay hydrated.

Otherwise, a typical summer time pattern will be in place through
much the week. Near zonal flow aloft with a series of shortwave
troughs pushing across the area will result climo precip chances for
the next several days with best chances through peak heating and
seabreeze related for the most part but will also depend on timing
and exact location of individual shortwave troughs. The severe
threat appears minimal for the next few days with limited shear,
though somewhat better shear develops toward the middle of the week.
We do look to have increased precipitation chances closer to Fri
and into next weekend with the approach of an incoming cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AMD NOT SKED continues to be appended to the KEWN TAF due to an
ongoing FAA comms issue that is impacting dissemination of the
observation information. However, TAFs will continue to be issued
while the issue is troubleshooted. NKT is the closest ASOS. EWN is
able to be dialed into to receive METARs.

Primarily VFR conditions forecast through the period as the area is
under the influence of high pressure centered offshore. Could see an
isolated shower or thunderstorm develop along the sea breeze this
afternoon but most guidance keeps probs around 20 percent or less.
HREF probs for fog/stratus development is a bit lower tonight at
less than 15% so have precluded a mention of low vis at all TAF
sites.

Outlook (Monday night through Friday): Primarily VFR conditions and
light winds are forecast into mid week as high pressure builds into
the area. Given ample low level moisture there is a low end chance
for patchy ground fog to develop each morning. Isolated to scattered
convection will be possible each day that could bring brief periods
of sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
No real changes in forecast thinking as the weather wont change
much into next weekend. S-SW winds around 5-15 kt during the
morning hours, increasing to around 10-20 kt during the
afternoon and evening each day this week as temps warm inland
bringing a tightening of gradients between the thermal trough
inland and the offshore high. Gusts may approach SCA conditions
across the Pamlico, Croatan/Roanoke Sounds and coastal waters
north of Cape Hatteras at times but currently not anticipating
any SCA headlines for any waters given the short and infrequent
nature of any stronger gusts. Seas will remain around 2-4 ft
into the end of the week as well.

A series of shortwave troughs will push across the coastal waters
through the week continuing to bring periods if showers and
thunderstorms, most prevalent bring nocturnal driven over the Gulf
Stream waters.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SK/RCF
AVIATION...SK/RCF
MARINE...SK/RCF