Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

951
FXUS62 KMHX 301049
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
649 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast. Aviation disco updated.
Added CLIMATE section.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) High pressure remains in place through Friday with light
winds and above normal temperatures.

2) Moisture returns with a cold front and low pressure system
bringing next chance of rain this weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...As a weak upper level trough exits the eastern seaboard
today, it will be replaced by an upper level ridge with high
pressure and southerly flow at the surface. Center of the SFC
slides off the coast near the VA/NC border this afternoon. This
will keep conditions dry but we will see a return of warmer
temperatures and higher humidities each day, culminating with
some very warm temperatures by the end of the week.

For reference, normal highs in early October are around 80 degrees,
and forecast highs are in the mid to upper 80s for much of ENC, with
some 90s possible inland THU, likely low 90s MaxTs FRI. Next
iteration of AFD will include CLIMATE section for FRI`s record
highs. Persistent southerly flow and increasing low- level
moisture should help to keep overnight lows higher as well, and
well above the normal lows of around 60.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Precipitation chances return for the weekend as
Gulf moisture opens up and a cold front drapes across the
southern Appalachians and pushes southeastward slowly on
Saturday. This will squeeze moisture into eastern NC elevating
rain chances for the weekend. While thunderstorms will be
possible, the threat for severe weather is low at this time.

The front loses steam as it approaches the coast, potentially
briefly stalling over Coastal Carolinas, ahead of a second
reinforcing front spurred from the Great Lakes by a stronger
trough aloft.

For now, ensemble guidance is showing about a 30-50% chance of
exceeding 1" of rain with this system. Any rain will be helpful,
especially for the coastal plain of ENC that is currently in
moderate to extreme drought.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Cloud cover continues to linger along the cool side of a
stubborn front analyzed just the Carolina coastline this
morning, with background wind fields light but generally SEerly
south of the boundary but east to northeasterly flow to its
north. Modest uptick in low- level moisture and decoupled lower
levels has led to some fog development this morning, mostly MVFR
VIS but some bounces down to IFR or lower when the shallow fog
lines up with the sensor just right. This will burn off quickly
after sunrise, but have included a 1hr TEMPO group. VFR
prevails through WED with diurnal CU field and winds becoming SE
through the day as high pressure slides offshore aiding the
seabreeze circulation through. Another round of fog potential
tonight, with winds going calm after being onshore adding more
moisture, and mostly clear skies expect IFR VIS impairments
early morning THU.

Outlook: Other than a nightly risk of reduced VIS in BR/MIFG/FG, a
low-impact aviation period is expected through the end of the work
week. Precipitation chances increase for the weekend as a frontal
system approaches from the northwest. Showers and thunderstorms are
possible Saturday and Sunday with the potential for more extended
periods of sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Buoys across the area showing 2 ft seas prevailing across all
waters with 9-10s periods common. Light easterly winds at around
5 kts gusting to 10 kts in most locations. In the wake of an
exiting low pressure system, a 5-10kt easterly flow is expected
to continue across all waters. Of note, some funneling through
the Albemarle Sound may allow a period of 10-15kt winds there.
East to southeast flow persists into Wednesday, but will remain
light. For the coastal waters, seas of 2-3ft will be common
through Wednesday.

Outlook: Good boating conditions are expected through at least
Friday. By the weekend, a front will be approaching the area from
the NW, and this is expected to lead to a modest increase in south
to southwest winds, 10-15G20KT FRI afternoon. Increasing
moisture plus weak instability may eventually lead to a risk of
thunderstorms as well, especially on Sunday. At this time
conditions look to remain below small craft advisory levels
through the weekend, becoming increasingly more likely early
next week behind a stronger reinforcing cold front on MON.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Highs for October 2nd.
Site....................Record.....Year
Beaufort (KMRH).........84.........2019
Cape Hatteras (KHSE)....89.........1986
Greenville (COOP).......94.........1986
Kinston (COOP)..........95.........1986
Manteo (KMQI)...........90.........2019
New Bern (KEWN).........93.........1986
New River (KNCA)........93.........1986
Ocracoke (COOP).........85.........2019
Washington (COOP).......89.........1905

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CEB
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...RM/CEB