Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

151
FXUS62 KMHX 010804
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
404 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes, quiet and warming until a series of fronts
impact the area this weekend and early next week. Progression of
these fronts has slowed from previous forecast iterations
leading to PoPs coming down FRI- FRI night. Aviation Disco
updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) High pressure remains in place through Friday with light winds
and above normal temperatures. Chance for widespread fog tonight.

2) Moisture returns with a cold front and low pressure system
bringing next chance of rain this weekend into early next week.

3) Cool high pressure behind the early week FROPA leads to more
fall-like temps, but a prolonged period of N-NEerly winds poses
coastal flooding concerns for areas along the OBX with
compromised dune structures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Fog development likely tonight with mostly SKC,
decoupled winds, and RHs already around 100%. Fog may become
dense at times and a dense fog advisory may be needed in spots.
REFS and HREF data suggest A 50-70% chance for VIS<1mi across
most of ENC outside of the far Nern tier of counties and OBX.
As a result, have a mix of patchy and areas of fog in the grids
across much of ENC in the early morning hours.

Trough axis aloft will continue to push further off the coast
with heights building in its wake as ridge expands from the
Gulf. In the lower half, high pressure meanders off the coast
allowing SEerly winds to veer further to a S-SWerly direction
through the overnight. Upper ridging will be over the Mid-
Atlantic into the end of the week before pushing offshore with
the approach of an upper level trough in the Ohio River Valley
that will push east as well. Pocket of dry air will be
entrenched over SECONUS leading to quiet weather and a
continued warming trend into the end of the week. By the end of
the week the area could flirt with record highs given the set up
(SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS).

For reference, normal highs in early October are around 80 degrees,
and forecast highs are in the mid to upper 80s for much of ENC, with
some 90s possible inland today, likely low 90s on FRI.
Persistent southerly flow and increasing low- level moisture
will lead to muggier lows as well, well above Normal, mid to
upper 60s FRI and SAT mornings.

KEY MESSAGE 2...No real changes in forecast thinking this weekend
and into next week as precipitation chances return as Gulf
moisture opens up and a cold front drapes across the Sern
Appalachians and pushes SEward slowly on SAT. This moisture
transport opening up has slowed down slightly with the SECONUS
ridge holding on a little bit longer into FRI night when the
ridge axis aloft finally pivots off the coast, allowing Gulf
moisture to reach ENC late FRI night. As the next wave aloft
approaches, the moisture will squeeze into ENC, elevating rain
chances for the weekend. While thunderstorms will be possible,
the threat for severe weather is low at this time.

The front loses steam as it approaches the coast, potentially
briefly stalling over Coastal Carolinas, ahead of a second
reinforcing front spurred from the Great Lakes by a stronger trough
aloft. For now, ensemble guidance is showing about a 30-50% chance of
exceeding 1" of rain with this system. Any rain will be helpful,
especially for the coastal plain of ENC that is currently in
moderate to extreme drought.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Precip chances do look to diminish by TUE next
week as the fronts push offshore and a strong high pressure
builds in from the N and W. Stiff NEerly breeze (peaking MON
night into TUE) will lead to building seas and elevated water
levels. Astronomical tide levels will luckily be on the way
down, but seas building to 7ft in mid length periods (7-9sec)
could lead to further beach and dune erosion concerns across
NOBX, Hatteras, and Ocracoke Islands due to severely diminished
dune structures here. Winds remain out of the N-NE into late-
week, but speeds diminish to 10-15kt WED onward. For now, TUE
will probably pose the greatest risk for coastal flooding
concerns.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR flight cats currently, with considerably less cloud cover
this evening than prior. Another round of fog is possible
across all TAF sites with calm winds and an uptick in low-level
moisture. Probabilistic guidance remains bullish on low
VIS with the REFS, HREF and LAMP probabilities all AoA 50% for
VIS<= IFR. Maintained fog with VIS as low as 1 mile for now at
all TAF sites, mainly between 07Z-13Z. After daybreak, expect
any fog to dissipate and VFR conditions to return to all of ENC
and persist through the day.

Outlook: Other than a nightly risk of reduced VIS in BR/MIFG/FG, a
low-impact aviation period is expected through the end of the work
week. Precipitation chances increase for the weekend as a frontal
system approaches from the northwest. Showers and thunderstorms are
possible Saturday and Sunday with the potential for more extended
periods of sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Benign boating conditions continue across ENC this afternoon with
widespread 5-10 kt E-SEerly winds and 1-3 ft seas across our
area waters as high pressure ridging continues to gradually push
offshore. Winds will veer to a S-SW direction by Thurs evening
while remaining at about 5-10 kts. Seas generally remain around
1-3 ft at 9-10 sec into THU.

Outlook: Good boating conditions are expected through at least
Friday. By the weekend, a front will be approaching the area from
the NW, and this is expected to lead to a modest increase in south
to southwest winds, 10-15G20KT FRI afternoon. Increasing moisture
plus weak instability may eventually lead to a risk of thunderstorms
as well, especially on SUN. At this time, conditions look to
remain below SCA levels through the weekend, becoming
increasingly more likely early next week behind a stronger
reinforcing cold front on MON.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for 10/02 (Friday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern      93/1986  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 89/1986  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville    94/1986  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 88/1954  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston       95/1986  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville  93/1986  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CEB/RCF
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...RM/CEB/RCF