Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

355
FXUS62 KMHX 031937
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
337 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Winds have slightly decreased Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Periods of moderate to heavy rain to continue through Sunday
along with a risk of flooding

2) Cool high pressure leads to more fall-like temps next week,
but a prolonged period of moderate onshore winds poses localized
coastal flooding concerns for areas along the OBX with
compromised dune structures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...An area of enhanced low-mid level convergence
along a frontal zone will interact with moderate instability and
a plume of rich, deep, anomalous moisture, supporting scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms with rainfall rates of
1-3"/hr. Convection is not expected to be all that deep, and may
not contain much lightning, but PWATs above the 90th percentile
for early October and slow storm motions will pose a risk of
some hydro concerns, including at least a modest risk of a few
instances of flash flooding. The highest rainfall rates, and
greatest risk of hydro impacts, looks to be focused along and
southwest of a Greenville to Morehead City line. It`s this area
where the highest instability will overlap with the greatest
forcing and lift. Ensemble guidance continue to suggest 1-3" of
rain, on average, in this area. Where convection is the most
persistent/trains, the potential exists for amounts as high as
3-6". Across the northeastern counties of ENC, and the OBX,
weaker instability should limit rainfall rates and amounts, with
a much lower flooding risk.

Convection may wane some tonight, although there should still
be sufficient lift and elevated instability to keep a risk of
showers and thunderstorms going through the night. On Sunday, a
weak area of low pressure will ride along the stalled frontal
zone and will continue to support periods of moderate to heavy
rain and a few thunderstorms. Instability should take a step
down tomorrow, and rainfall rates may not get quite as high.
However, given the anomalous moisture present, there may
continue to be some hydro impacts, especially for areas that see
repeated rounds of heavier rain on top of what falls today. The
heaviest rain is expected to end from north to south late
Sunday into Monday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...In the wake of the weekend front, a stiff
NEerly breeze will develop and peak MON night into TUE. This
will lead to building seas and elevated water levels.
Astronomical tide levels will luckily be on the way down, but
seas building to 7ft, though relatively choppy periodicity of 7
sec, may be enough to lead to further beach and dune erosion
concerns across the areas with severely diminished dune
structures. However, this risk appears to be decreasing some due
to the strongest winds and highest seas shifting south of
Hatteras Island. Strongest winds of 20-25 kt with higher gusts
expected MON night into TUE morning. Winds remain out of the
N-NE into late- week, but speeds diminish to 10-15kt late TUE
and beyond.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecast confidence is low to moderate over the next 24 hours.

Periods of SHRA and TSRA will continue to impact the ENC TAF
sites through Sunday with occasional drops to IFR VIS in +RA.
With time, CIGs are expected to steadily fall as well, with
widespread LIFR/IFR CIGs this evening through Sunday. Later this
evening through Sunday morning, areas of BR/FG may develop in
between periods of RA (due to lots of low-level moisture and
light winds). The TSRA risk is modest today, not so much from a
coverage standpoint, but because of weaker instability and
limited lightning. The risk should take a step down on Sunday,
and may tend to be confined to KOAJ, KEWN, and KMRH. While
confidence in low CIGs/VIS in SHRA and TSRA is high, confidence
in the timing of individual drops to IFR, or lower, is low.

Outlook: RA and a few TSRA will gradually end from north to
south late Sunday night into Monday morning as a cold front
moves through. Behind the front, the winds will become
northeasterly. CIGs should improve by Sunday evening, with VFR
conditions then prevailing into the middle of next week.

&&

.MARINE...
A modest northerly wind of 10-15kt is ongoing across much of
the central and northern waters in the wake of a slowing cold
front. South of that front, light southwest winds of 5-10kt are
ongoing across the southern waters. The front is slowing down
and may not get through the southern waters through tonight. The
front then lifts back north on Sunday as a weak area of low
pressure moves along it. As the low moves offshore, it will drag
the cold front back south through all waters Sunday night into
Monday. The northerly surge behind that front will be stronger
than today`s surge, with marine headlines likely needed for some
waters. Guidance has trended down some with the winds during
this time, but still appear supportive of a period of 20-30kt
winds. A few gusts to gale- force will be possible south of Cape
Lookout. Seas of 2-3ft this weekend should eventually build to
4-7ft by Monday and Tuesday as the above-mentioned northerly
surge moves through.

Outlook: Northeasterly flow of 10-15kt continues into the
middle of next week, but should be lighter than Monday/Tuesday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RM/CEB
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...RM