Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

128
FXUS62 KMHX 261913
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
313 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Issued a SCA for the rivers and sounds. Issued a Gale Watch for
the coastal waters and the Pamlico Sound.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Record highs possible ahead of a frontal system impacting
ENC Friday.

2) Front brings a risk of showers and a few thunderstorms Fri
night into Saturday but severe risk is low.

3) Risk of frost returns behind the front Saturday night.

Marine: SCA headlines in effect for offshore waters and Pamlico
Sound tonight through Friday. Strong SCA to Gale Force winds
possible Friday night into Saturday behind the front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Strong but slow-moving cold front will approach
the Carolinas Friday as disorganized shortwave energy over the
Northern Plains phases over the Great Lakes and digs across the
mid-Atlantic. Mid-level heights will remain well above average
for late March (up to 1-2 sigma), with low level thicknesses
supporting highs in the mid to upper 80s inland on Friday, which
may threaten a few records - see the CLIMATE section for
details.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Increased moisture advection along the
southward-advancing frontal zone looks to support the next
appreciable chance of showers and a few thunderstorms, focused
mainly Friday night into Saturday with the best chances north of
US Highway 70. Instability continues to look meager with less
than 500 J/kg MLCAPE, and the severe thunderstorm risk appears
to be very low (less than 2%). Overall moisture does not look to
be deep enough to support significant rainfall, although several
12z models are showing higher QPF amounts to around a quarter
inch with some HiRes models showing up to a half inch. Highest
amount still appear to be across the northern tier.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Behind this front, another surge of northerly
winds is expected Friday night and Saturday, along with cooler,
below normal temperatures returning over the weekend. There is a
potential for frost Saturday night with latest NBM probs
showing greater than 70 percent across inland counties.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR flight cats across the board this afternoon with CIGs>FL040
Skies expected to clear overnight THU. SWerly winds will
continue 10G15-20kt through this evening, relaxing to AoB 10kt
overnight, but not completely calm. Cold front crosses the
region FRI afternoon with gusty SWerly winds again ahead of the
front and diurnal CU AoA FL040.

Outlook: The next cold front is forecast to reach ENC late
Friday, pushing offshore by Saturday morning. Similar to this
recent front, there will be a risk of SCT SHRA, isolated TSRA,
and a notable northerly wind shift. Once again it looks like
there will be a risk of 20-35kt wind gusts behind the front. Sub
VFR conditions may develop as well, especially where SHRA
develop with CIGs forecast to decrease to MVFR after sunset
Friday night, and potentially IFR by the early morning hours
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Currently seeing SW winds around 10-20 kt and seas around 2-4
ft but winds will continue to increase to around 15-25 kt with
seas building to 4-6 ft this evening and continue through
Friday ahead of a strong cold front. The front will push south
across the waters late Friday afternoon and evening with a
strong northerly surge developing behind the front. The
strongest CAA will occur after midnight Friday through much of
Saturday when Gale Force conditions are possible with highest
chances across the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound. Seas will
build to 6-10+ ft peaking during the day Saturday. Have added
an SCA for the Pamlico Sound for gusts to 25 kt in pre-frontal
SW winds. Also issued a Gale Watch from late Friday night for
the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound.

Outlook: Seas will likely remain elevated into at least Sunday.
Mostly benign conditions expected for much of next week with
high pressure centered off the coast.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for 03/27 (Friday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern         86/2020     (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    77/2017     (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville       88/1929     (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    77/1989     (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston          88/1938     (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     87/2020     (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Friday to 8 PM EDT Saturday for
     AMZ131-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT
     Saturday for AMZ135.
     Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon
     for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Friday to 8 PM EDT Saturday for
     AMZ136-137.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
     Saturday for AMZ150.
     Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon
     for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 3 AM EDT
     Saturday for AMZ152-154-156.
     Gale Watch from late Friday night through Saturday evening for
     AMZ152-154-156.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 3 AM EDT
     Saturday for AMZ158.
     Gale Watch from late Friday night through Saturday afternoon
     for AMZ158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SK/MS
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...SK/MS