Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

050
FXUS62 KMHX 121046
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
646 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Increased risk of scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms through Monday, some of which could be strong to
marginally severe, along with a risk of heavy rainfall and
scattered instances of flooding.

2) Brief reprieve from the dangerous heat early next week, then
hot and humid conditions return by the end of the week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Anomalous moisture, moderate instability, and
areas of enhanced convergence will develop along a frontal zone
stalled across the Carolinas today. It`s expected that this will
lead to scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, first
along the NRN OBX this morning, then eventually expanding to the
rest of ENC by this afternoon and into tonight. Guidance differ
on where the most persistent convection will occur, but the
pattern supports the potential for bands of training convection.
If these bands do, indeed, develop, short-term hi-res guidance
suggests a reasonable worst-case scenario is for rainfall totals
of upwards of 3-5"+. Amounts aside, the anomalous moisture plus
enhanced lift and moderate instability suggests rainfall rates
of 1-3"/hr at times. All of this supports the potential for
isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding. A Flood Watch
was considered for portions of the area. However, while the
pattern supports the potential, there remains some uncertainty
regarding the placement of the heaviest rainfall and where the
greatest risk of training convection will be. Ensemble guidance
show the strongest signal across NE NC, which is also where
observed rainfall over the past 7-10 days is running around
100-300% of normal. Elsewhere, hydro concerns may also develop,
but may tend to be focused in urban areas where rainfall rates
may overcome drainage systems for short bursts of time. Periods
of moderate to heavy rain may linger into Monday, but
instability is forecast to wane by then, and this may lead to
lower rainfall rates compared to today.

In addition to the heavy rain threat, we will also be
monitoring the potential for scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms. Deep layer shear is forecast to be enhanced some
thanks to the front in the area, and this should support some
better storm organization at times. In fact, right along the
front, it wouldn`t be surprising to see some transient, weak
supercell structures at times. The overall risk will probably be
muted some by a lack of stronger instability. However, the
strongest cores may produce strong winds, hail, or a brief/weak
tornado. The severe thunderstorm risk is expected to drastically
lower on Monday as instability weakens significantly within the
developing northeasterly onshore flow.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Low pressure developing off the coast of NC on
Monday is expected to keep a "cooler" northeasterly flow going
across ENC through Tuesday. This should keep temps below normal
for a couple of days, and consequently lower the heat risk. This
looks to be short-lived, though, as a warming southwesterly
flow regime returns mid to late-week. Guidance continue to show
a strong signal for above normal temperatures and an increased
heat risk once again.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A very moist and moderately unstable airmass will combine with
increasing lift along a stalled frontal boundary draped across
the Carolinas. This is expected to support an increased risk of
TSRA over the next 24+ hours across ENC. Initially, the risk is
expected to be focused east of the TAF sites early this morning.
However, by this afternoon the risk is expected to expand
across all of ENC, including all of the TAF sites. Of note, this
is likely to be a longer duration TSRA risk from this afternoon
through tonight. However, TSRA are not expected for that entire
time. Just be aware of the extended risk period. TSRA are
expected to be accompanied by sub-VFR conditions. Due to the
potential for very heavy rain at times, there will be a risk of
IFR/LIFR VIS as well.

After 06z tonight, low CIGs are expected to develop across the
area along, and behind, the stalled front. With this TAF
issuance, I`ve added a SCT IFR layer and an OVC MVFR layer to
account for this potential.

Outlook (Monday through Thursday): Moisture and lift along a
stalled front should continue to support periods of SHRA through
Monday. With time, the TSRA risk is expected to lower,
especially by Monday and Tuesday. Periods of low CIGs (IFR/MVFR)
are expected through early next week as moisture continues to
wrap around an area of low pressure forecast to develop off the
coast of NC. A more predominant period of VFR conditions looks
to return by the middle of next week.

&&

.MARINE...
A front will settle south through the central and norther
waters by this afternoon, with low pressure developing along it
near Cape Fear. While significant deepening of the low is not
expected, the tightening gradient will lead to building easterly
winds, especially for waters north of Ocracoke Inlet. South of
there, winds are expected to lighter and more variable as the
low moves slowly east away from Cape Fear. From Ocracoke Inlet
north, easterly winds of 15- 20kt are expected, with seas of
3-5ft.

Outlook (Monday through Thursday): Low pressure will stall just
off the coast of NC Monday, then eventually weaken and move
further out to sea on Tuesday. At the peak of the low, a period
of east to northeast winds of 15-20kt are expected, especially
for the waters north of Cape Lookout. A period of 4-7ft seas
also appears likely. Small Craft Advisories may eventually be
needed for some waters for Monday through Monday night. Much
improved boating conditions are then expected to return by the
middle of the week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RM
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...RM