Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

954
FXUS62 KMHX 011204
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
804 AM EDT Fri May 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Added in some slight chance PoP`s to today`s forecast.

Adjusted PoPs and QPF values down across the far inland zones
on Saturday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rain arrives this weekend as a coastal low develops off of the
southeast coast on Saturday and drags a frontal system through the
area Saturday night.

3) Cold front moves through the middle to late next week

Marine: Small craft advisory for the central waters continues into
Friday evening. Low pressure passing off the coast will bring
hazardous marine conditions this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Minor tweaks were made to the forecast for this
weekend and a few minor things will need to be monitored today
as well. For today, we will have a weak mid level shortwave lift
north across the area later this morning into this afternoon
which could spark a few isolated showers, mainly along our far
western Coastal Plain. Otherwise, will continue to monitor the
development of a passing coastal low this weekend which will
bring some very beneficial rainfall to much of the area.

Otherwise guidance remains in good agreement with a low pressure
system passing just off the coast Saturday bringing much needed
rainfall to the region. Upper level low sitting over eastern
Canada this weekend will act to deepen an incoming positively
tilted trough as it moves across the Mid-Atlantic Sat into Sun.
Associated mid level shortwave strengthens as it nears and
pushes off the coast this weekend as it rounds the base of this
deepening trough. At the same time, a progressive southern
stream jet stream will bring a second, slightly weaker
shortwave across the Deep South and Southeast eventually
merging with the northern stream shortwave. At the surface this
will kick off cyclogenesis off the Southeast coast on Sat along
a stalled frontal boundary located to the south of NC. As the
two aforementioned shortwaves merge this low will begin to
deepen as it tracks NE`wards along the OBX Sat afternoon and
evening bringing widespread rainfall to ENC with highest
rainfall amounts currently forecast along and east of Hwy 17.

Probabilities for at least an inch of rainfall are still high,
and decreased a tad inland. While NBM probs for precip greater
than one inch inland are greater than 70%, HREF probs are closer
to 10-50% inland. With the best moisture, instability, and
forcing along the coast and offshore, the current thinking is
rainfall totals inland will trend towards the lower end of
guidance. Chances for precip > 1" along the coast S of Oregon
Inlet are now 70-90%, decreasing a bit to 20-50% inland west of
hwy 17.

As far as convection is concerned, currently most of the
instability remains offshore with northerly flow keeping
profiles more stable over land. This should keep rainfall rates
low enough to preclude any flash flooding threat, especially
when paired with the drought conditions in place. While there is
still some uncertainty with how strong the low will get as it
passes by the OBX on Sat, current thinking is the low remains
above 1000 mb as it passes by the area before deepening further
and at a much quicker pace to the north and east of the area.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The next timeframe we are monitoring will be
mid to late week next week. A cold front moves across the
Eastern Seaboard, with an upper level trough digging towards the
Mid-Atlantic and SE. There remains a fair amount of uncertainty
with the timing, as ECMWF has the frontal passage coming
through Thu morning into the afternoon, and the GFS has the
frontal passage Wed night/Thu morning and the Canadian has the
front moving through THursday night. Ensemble probs for PWATs
greater than 1.5" ahead of this front remain around 30-50%. If
the model consensus shifts to the afternoon Thursday, and the
upper level support remains just as impressive, instability
would be maximized and we would have to start thinking about
severe potential. Machine learning severe probs are highest in
the Mid-Atlantic and SE US Thursday. At this point there is
enough uncertainty to just take a wait and see approach.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Flight conditions will remain VFR through the rest of the day
with winds veering from NE to SE. Cloud cover will increase
throughout the day as well, becoming OVC by tonight with CIGs
lowering to around MVFR around midnight. PoPs will start to
increase along the southern coast this afternoon/early evening,
spreading north overnight as a low approaches the area. As
showers and thunderstorms overspread the area tonight and into
Saturday, further reductions in VIS and CIGs are expected. The
heaviest rainfall will occur near the coast Saturday morning
with CIGs potentially lowering to IFR.

Outlook: Conditions will continue to deteriorate into Saturday as
widespread rain, low VIS, and low CIGs overspread ENC. Periods of
moderate to heavy rain are possible, especially within
thunderstorms, which will be most likely near the coast. VFR
conditions will return Sunday and continue into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
A northerly surge of winds is gradually making its way south
across our waters this morning with light N`rly winds at about 5
kts ahead of the surge becoming N-NE at 15-20 kts with a few
gusts up to 25 kts at times directly behind this surge. Much of
the HiRes guidance continues to suggest any 25+ kt gusts we are
currently seeing will be short lived in nature precluding
additional small craft issuance outside of the central waters
where seas are forecast to build to 4-7 ft while seas remain 3-5
ft elsewhere along the coast. Winds will gradually ease through
the morning and into the afternoon to 5-10 kts and veer to an E
and eventually a SE direction out ahead of an approaching low
to the south. Seas along the coast will also lower down to 3-5
ft briefly ending SCA conditions across the central waters.
However, as the aforementioned low begins to approach from the
south and deepens winds will increase to 10-20 kts with our next
round of small craft conditions then expected later Saturday as
the low makes its closest point of approach.

Outlook: The aforementioned low will pass across or just south
of the waters Saturday afternoon into Sunday bringing our next
round of SCA`s. For now it looks like outside of any
thunderstorms that impact the waters which could bring locally
enhanced winds and seas, winds will remain around 20-25 kts
with gusts up around 30 kts with a few gusts up near 35 kts
especially across the waters outside of 20 NM. For now it
appears gusts would be infrequent enough and isolated enough to
preclude any gale products but will have to monitor trends today
to make sure it stays that way.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for AMZ152-
     154.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RCF/RJ
AVIATION...OJC
MARINE...RCF/RJ