Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

228
FXUS62 KMHX 020624
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
224 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High shifts offshore today and a weak warm front will lift
through the area tonight. High pressure then remains anchored
offshore through the end of the week and into the first half of
the weekend. The next cold front then impacts the region late
this weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 225 AM Wed...Latest analysis shows high pressure centered
over southern Quebec/Ontario ridging southward through the Mid-
Atlantic and into the Carolinas. The high will gradually shift
offshore today as front lingers south of the area, gradually
advancing northward this afternoon and evening. Model guidance
remains insistent on low- level moisture increasing within
easterly flow this afternoon and into tonight. While skies
remain mostly clear early this morning, clouds will be
increasing through the day. Despite rising low-level thicknesses,
the increased cloud cover should offset how warm it gets, with
highs in the 60s along the Outer Banks and upper 60s to low 70s
inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 225 AM Wed...Weak warm front will lift northward through
the area tonight. While most of the models keep the area mostly
dry, there may be enough low level moisture and convergence to
support a few isolated showers. Clouds and developing southerly
flow will keep it very mild overnight with lows in the 60s
(10-15 deg above normal for early April).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 AM Tue...

Key Messages: - Near Record High Temperatures expected on
Thursday and Friday

Thursday through Sunday... Upper ridging remains in place into
the weekend, becoming amplified as we get into Sun out ahead of
a deepening positively tilted trough in the Plains. This trough
then tracks E`wards early next week eventually pushing offshore
by midweek. This trough will bring our next frontal boundary
across ENC early next week. High pressure ridging in the mid
levels and at the surface becomes entrenched offshore and moves
little into this weekend. This will continue to promote SW`rly
flow at the mid levels and at the surface bringing a steady WAA
regime to ENC, thus allowing temps to soar well above normal
Thurs and Fri with highs climbing well into the 80s inland
(potentially reaching the low 90s on Friday) and mid to upper
70s along the beaches. This is rather anomalous for the time of
year with ECMWF EFI values close to the 90th+ percentile for max
temps and NAFES surface and 850 mb temp anomolies generally at
1-2 SD above normal. Overnight lows will also be well above
average, with temps forecast to drop only as far as the mid-to-
upper 60s Thursday-Saturday nights. Forecast continues to show
temps to near record Highs for early April (see "Climate
Section" for more information). While we will likely remain mo
dry across ENC through the end of the workweek a weak mid level
shortwave that will be tracking along the northern periphery of
the mid level ridging may bring some isolated showers to
portions of ENC on Thurs. For now the threat is relatively low
so kept PoP`s at SChc at best across the area.

Temps look to remain well above normal on Sat and Sun as a
backdoor cold front stalls near the NC/VA border and then lifts
N`wards as a warm front this weekend. However, once again this
front may bring a low end threat for some shower activity and
maybe a rumble of thunder or two primarily across areas north of
Hwy 264 on Fri night into Sat morning before we dry out on Sun.
Once again given the lower end threat kept PoPs at Schc to Chc
at best.

Early next week...The next cold front then looks to impact the
area Sunday night into Monday as strengthening surface low moves
through the Mid-Atlantic. Still have a fair spread in the
overall evolution of the upper level pattern and how quickly the
cold front tracks across the area so once again capped PoP`s at
high end Chc for now until we gain better confidence in when
the rain threat will occur. Otherwise we do finally cool down
Mon into Tue as well with temps falling back closer to normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 225 AM Wed...VFR conditions across the terminals early
this morning. Guidance continues to suggest sufficient low-
level moistening within the developing easterly flow today,
supporting the risk for a prolonged period of sub-VFR cigs this
afternoon into tonight. IFR cigs will be possible overnight,
though with southerly flow developing will keep at MVFR for now.
A few isolated showers will be possible as well, with best
chances overnight with advancing warm front.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 330 AM Tue...Expect primarily VFR conditions with steady
SW`rly winds across ENC through the rest of the period as high
pressure builds into the area. Next significant frontal system
expected to impact ENC Sun night into Mon.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 225 AM Wed...Latest obs show E winds 10-15 kt gusting up
to 20 kt across the outer waters with seas 3-5 ft. High pressure
to the north will gradually shift offshore today as front
lingers south of the waters. E winds 10-15 kt will continue
gusting up to 20 kt at times. Weak warm front will lift back
northward through the waters this evening and tonight. This will
allow for SE winds 10-15 kt to veer becoming S 10-20 kt. Expect
seas to remain mostly 3-5 ft today and tonight...however there
is potential for the outer central and southern waters to
briefly build to 6 ft overnight.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 330 AM Tue...High pressure gradually becomes centered
offshore allowing winds to veer to a S`rly direction into Thurs.
Winds may also increase closer to 15-20 kts with a few gusts up
near 25 kts Thurs afternoon and into Friday as the pressure
gradient briefly tightens between this high and an approaching
front. This front stalls just to the north of our waters
allowing the pressure gradient to relax and winds to ease Fri
night into Sat down to 10-15 kts. Seas generally remain around
3-5 ft through the period with just a SChc for some showers and
thunderstorms Fri night as the front nears the area.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for Thursday 04/03

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern         89/1963  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    79/1974  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville       90/1967  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    81/2007  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston          90/1934  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     89/1967  (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for Friday 04/04

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern         92/1934  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    78/1945  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville       90/1967  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    80/2007  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston          92/1934  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     89/1963  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...CQD/RCF
MARINE...CQD/RCF
CLIMATE...MHX