Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

182
FXUS62 KMHX 040955
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
555 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes since the previous update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unsettled weather pattern persists Wednesday as multiple
rounds of showers and thunderstorms impact ENC bringing a low
end flash flooding risk.

2) Return to a more typical summertime pattern Thursday onwards.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...There is little change in the synoptic setup as
an upper level trough currently in the Tennessee River Valley
has stalled across the area and will remain there into midweek
before weakening and eventually getting absorbed by a passing
northern stream trough Wed/Thurs. This should keep the moisture
channel open from the Gulf into at least midweek as upper level
S-SW`rly winds remain in place advecting moisture N`wards. This
second trough should remain well enough to the north to preclude
any impacts to the area later this week. At the same time we
still expect a few shortwaves to transit around the base of this
trough and lift north through the Carolinas today and potentially
again on Wed. As the upper trough dissipates/gets absorbed
later this week any mid level forcing does look to shift further
inland away from ENC.

What does this mean for us as far as ambient weather goes through
Wed? Stalled surface front to our west will move little before
dissipating on Wed. A shortwave transits across the area
this morning bringing a renewed threat for more widespread
shower and thunderstorm activity, initially along the coast but
slowly progressing inland. While the flooding risk is localized
to areas where heavy rain rates stall, that does not mean it is
zero as any shower or storm will have a chance to produce
rainfall rates of at least 1-2" an hour which could yield an
isolated and localized threat for flooding in slower moving
storms. In fact, a Flash Flood Warning is in effect for Northern
Hatteras Island as 3-6" inches of rain have fallen in the past
2-3 hours in the area. Any addition areas where localized flash
flooding could occur are confined to along the Crystal Coast
and along the OBX south of Oregon Inlet.

We are now in a Marginal (level 1/4) Excessive Rain Outlook for
today.

KEY MESSAGE 2...By the end of the week it looks like we return
back to climo or below climo PoPs as a lack of mid level
shortwaves or significant forcing will be noted across ENC. This
will likely result in chances for showers and thunderstorms
along the daily seabreeze but once again these chances should be
isolated at best given the overall setup. After a cool start to
the week given widespread cloudcover and rain as highs only get
into the low to mid 80s and lows in the low 70s through Wed, we
do begin to warm back up with temps returning to the upper 80s
to low 90s inland and mid 80s along the OBX.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conds are noted across ENC early this morning. Much like
last night another round of low stratus and maybe even some
patchy fog inland appears likely with MVFR to IFR ceilings
increasingly likely just before sunrise. Low stratus is forecast
to remain in place once it sets up through the early morning
hours before it lifts and MVFR to possibly VFR sometime in the
afternoon. Finally yet another round of scattered showers and
some thunderstorms are possible today keeping elevated chances
of at least TEMPO sub- VFR conditions in place.

Outlook (Wednesday through Saturday): Periods of sub-VFR
ceilings/vis are possible Wednesday with a chances for showers
and thunderstorms with a stalled upper trough off to the west.
Precip chances and thus the threat for sub-VFR conditions look
to decrease beyond Wed and into the weekend as high pressure
builds into the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas have continued to ease this morning as a stalled
front to our west has continued to weaken with high pressure
ridging building into the area. Ongoing S-SW winds at 10-15 kts
and seas 3-5 ft are noted across across the coastal waters
south of Oregon Inlet early this morning. As the aforementioned
front gradually dissipates today and high pressure ridging
builds further over the area, winds and seas will ease with
winds falling to 5-10 kts out of the S-SW and seas falling to
2-4 ft by this afternoon. Will note while winds and seas will
decrease there will continue to be daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms across our waters.

Outlook (Wednesday through Saturday): Expect more benign winds
and seas for the period as high pressure remains the dominant
feature across the region. Winds generally remain below 15 kts
and seas persist around 2-4 ft into the weekend.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ195-196-
     199-204-205.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RCF/RJ
AVIATION...RCF/RJ
MARINE...RCF/RJ