Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

339
FXUS62 KMHX 051020
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
620 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes from the previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dreary conditions today give way to cooler and dry high
pressure finally bringing a return to seasonable fall
conditions to ENC through mid week.

2) Moderating conditions brings a warming trend back to the
region late this week and into the weekend, along with next
chance for rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Latest analysis this morning depicts a stalled
frontal boundary stalled just off the coast of the Carolinas,
extending over portions of the Deep South and settling along the
northern Gulf coast. Large-scale cyclonic flow aloft continues
to swirl over the Great Lakes and southeastern Canada, but some
weaker vort maxes migrating along the frontal boundary are
providing enough lift to promote a broad area of rain and
embedded showers across the southeastern CONUS and into the
Carolinas. Some light rain is spreading south of US 70 this
hour and will likely be present for this morning`s commute
especially in the vicinity of the Crystal Coast.

Pool of low-level moisture trapped under the frontal inversion
will keep cloudy and occasionally drizzly conditions in place
for most of ENC today, which will also keep temps from climbing
much beyond the low to to mid 70s. Later this afternoon, dry air
advecting in with a reinforcing boundary and building high
pressure will begin a clearing trend from NW to SE with TDs
diving well into the 50s and even upper 40s inland by this time
Tues AM.

High pres builds further tomorrow into Wed, resulting in very
pleasant mild and dry days with highs near climo in the 75-80
range (low 70s OBX), but cooler than normal lows well down into
the 50s for the mainland, and perhaps a few 40s for the normally
cooler sheltered locales. The strongest signal for this is on
Wednesday when the high crests overhead and environment is most
favored for radiational cooling.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Mid-level zonal flow returns Thu into the
weekend, and this will bring a modest warming trend back to
ENC. SW flow returns by Friday as a broad but weak mid-level low
develops and meanders over the southern plains, bringing a
return of Gulf moisture by the end of the week. There are still
plenty of details to sort out and some timing differences, but
general ensemble consensus is that frontal boundary still
stalled to our south will be pulled northward as one or
potentially multiple lows develop along it and lift northward.
This will bring a return for rain chances, and with the moisture
having Gulf origins some heavier rainfall is not implausible.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
All terminals remain socked in under IFR or LIFR conditions
this morning as low-level moisture remains pooled under a strong
frontal inversion with spotty fog closer to I-95. Current
conditions will change little through this morning, but by this
afternoon dry air will advect in from the NW as high pressure
builds into the area. Guidance has trended a bit faster on the
onset of VFR conditions compared to 06z, especially for
terminals closer to the coast. After 20-21z, VFR expected to be
prevailing for the remainder of the period for all terminals.

Outlook (Tues through Fri): Mainly VFR conditions expected from
Tuesday onward, both day and night with lowered dewpoints.
Overall fog chances appear low each night at around 10% or less.
In the wake of the boundary Tuesday, NE winds may gust up to 20
kt at times especially for near-shore terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA headlines remain unchanged from this afternoon as
reinforcing boundary migrates across area waters tonight with
high pressure building in its wake. 00z suite has continued to
trend downward just slightly, but at least some period of SCA
conditions remain likely from Oregon Inlet southward but more
likely beyond 5-10 nm offshore.

Seas of 2 to 4 ft continue through today, then build to around 6
feet south of Oregon Inlet overnight. Seas eventually subside
back below 6 ft by late tomorrow afternoon.

Outlook (Tues through Friday): Northeasterly flow of 10-15 kt
expected mid week as high pres will be anchored to the north,
and winds/seas remain below SCA thresholds. Deteriorating
conditions likely on Friday and extending into the weekend as
frontal boundary begins to lift back northward from the Gulf
coast with increasing NE winds particularly over Onslow Bay.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT
     Tuesday for AMZ152-154-156.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT
     Tuesday for AMZ158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MS
AVIATION...MS
MARINE...MS