Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

716
FXUS62 KMHX 211014
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
614 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Only slight chances for showers or storms early week, with
best chances Tuesday afternoon and evening.

3) Becoming hot and humid again next week with highs in the 90s,
and heat indices in the lower 100s each afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...High pres shifts offshore early next week,
while another shortwave swings ewrd acrs the Great Lakes and Mid
Atlantic region. This will drag a cold front into the
Southeast, but as is typical this time of year, the front gets
hung up inland from the coast. The fcst has trended drier with
00z model suite Monday with only slgt chc (20%) inland. More
breezy on Mon as thermal gradient inc in addition to the cold
front moving into the Piedmont. Some models indicate some
weakening MCS activity arriving into interior ENC Mon evening,
but this activity running into dry air should limit chances to
no higher than 30% Mon evening. Front will move through Tuesday
night, and have increased pops slightly for Tue afternoon and
eve ahead of it. Lesser precip chances Wed and Thu. Cont hot
with the offshore flow and highs in the 90s again. Covg of
showers/storms may inc late week as next shortwave enters the
region.

KEY MESSAGE 2...With the return swrly flow, hot and humid
conditions combine to produce uncomfortably warm heat indices,
though most likely remaining below heat adv thresholds, with
readings in the lower 100s each day early to late week.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Pred VFR conditions expected through the period, other than
lingering high clouds this morning. High pressure shifts
offshore today, with strengthening sea breeze in the afternoon
bringing southerly wind gusts upwards of around 15 kt in it`s
wake as it progresses inland.

Outlook (Mon through Thu): Rain and storm chances have decreased
for early next week, and have 20% or less for Mon, inc to just
30-50% for Tue. Chances may inc a bit for Thu as next shortwave
trough approaches the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs show SW-WSW winds 5-10 kt with seas around 2 ft.
High pressure will grad shift offshore today, with increasing
southerly flow 10-15 kt this afternoon and evening and seas 2-3
ft.

Outlook (Mon through Thu): Tightening of the thermal gradient
for Mon as conditions become hotter, and weakening cold front
approach ctrl NC. The winds have dec a bit with this forecast
update, and widespread 25+ kt winds do not appear likely attm.
However, with late afternoon/early evening thermal gradient
inc, the areas that typically see these stronger gusts like
eastern Pamlico and Croatan/Roanoke sounds, as well as the
adjacent nearshore areas of the coastal waters may see ocnl
gusts over 25 knots. Seas should remain below 6 ft. The front
will move through the waters Tue night with flow becoming N-NE
5-15 kt behind it.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CQD/TL
AVIATION...CQD
MARINE...CQD/TL