Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

550
FXUS62 KMHX 130554
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
154 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Heat Advisory issued for today south of Highway 70. Aviation
discussion updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Pattern expected to become more conducive for showers and
thunderstorms for the weekend into early next week. Another
chance for severe thunderstorms on Sunday.

2) Potential for hazardous heat and windy conditions late next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Synoptic pattern is expected to shift towards
something more favorable for convection across ENC this weekend
and into early next week with a weak front crossing the FA SAT
and stalling to the S of the area into early next week when
troughing aloft develops, opening moisture transport from the
Gulf. However, this shouldn`t be read as a high coverage of
thunderstorms each day.

Temps aloft "cool" slightly as heights aloft fall ahead of the front
and the stout mid level ridge begins to weaken, and this may support
at least a risk of higher coverage seabreeze convection on Sat,
particularly along the Crystal Coast seabreeze where likely PoPs are
mentioned. The ample moisture noted by PWATs rising to 2-2.5in,
strong destabilization due to typical summer time heating and the
height falls aloft poses a threat for the development of tstorms
which could be strong to marginally severe. On Sunday a prefrontal
trough develops around the coastal plain providing the necessary
focus for shower and thunderstorm development Sun afternoon and
evening. Activity likely starts off to the north and west and
progresses E`wards as the afternoon wears on. With strong
instability forecast to be in place and increase shear with values
closer to 25-35 kts a few of these storms could become strong to
severe in nature with the strongest activity likely noted along our
northern tier. Damaging wind gusts would be the primary hazard
within the strongest storms.

Early next week, higher than climo shower and storm chances are in
the forecast with the greater moisture content through the column
leading to PWATs in excess of 2". Additionally, deep layer shear of
around 30-35kt with weak cyclogenesis along another front set to
approach and stall over the area Mon may support a modest increase
in the potential for organized convection, some of which could be on
the strong side. The last of a series of fronts finally pushes off
the coast by midweek allowing for lower precip chances outside of a
daily seabreeze. We will be monitoring the approach of yet another
front late next week as well.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Heat and humidity look to crank up a notch once
again late next week which could bring the potential for
hazardous heat indices and related health impacts. Probabilistic
heat risk guidance suggests a 40-60% chance at reaching major
level heat risk thresholds on Thurs/Fri. In addition to this,
with the approach of a front associated with a deepening low
located well to the north, breezy conditions would be possible
as well if current trends hold.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions prevail across ENC TAF terminals early this
morning with a weak frontal boundary edging into the area, while
across OBX poorly organized clusters of showers and storms has
brought periods of IFR. Overall trend is for improvement to or
continuation of VFR with dry low levels limiting fog/stratus
risk. Cluster of showers and storms will continue to migrate
offshore, fully clear of OBX sites by 06-07z.

Stalled frontal boundary will be the focal point for shower and
thunderstorm redevelopment tomorrow afternoon with highest risk
focused south of line from OCW to ISO. Environment does not
appear as favorable for stronger storms but torrential rainfall
remains a risk which could result in brief but severe reductions
in visibility. Threat will be diurnal with full convective
cessation by 00-01z at the latest. Environment appears slightly
better for low stratus overnight with better low-level
saturation, but uncertainty is too high to include in TAFs this
cycle.

Outlook: Better chances for afternoon/evening showers/storms
continues through weekend with front sliding off the coast and
stalling into early next week, bringing tempo reductions in
vsby and/or cigs accompanying the heavier showers. Another front
approaches and stalls over the area Mon leading to a wet period
early next week with greater chances for sub VFR flight cats
until the front clears through mid-week.

&&

.MARINE...
Steady SW winds at 10-20 kts with a few gusts up near 25 kts are
noted across our coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet and the
Pamlico Sound with lighter and more variable winds noted across
the northern sounds and coastal waters as of this update. The
thermal gradient will continue to tighten this afternoon
allowing for more frequent gusts up to 25 kts, mainly along the
coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet and across the Pamlico
Sound resulting in small craft advisories across these waters
into this evening. Winds are then forecast to ease tonight
allowing for the SCA`s to end closer to 11PM. Seas will
generally remain around 2-4 ft through this timeframe. However,
will note while background winds do ease there will be a low end
threat for a line of showers and thunderstorms to impact our
waters tonight as a decaying line of thunderstorms approaches
from the west after 11PM. Locally enhanced winds and seas will
be possible within the strongest storms that impact our waters.
Afterwards a weak cold front will begin moving through our
waters from north to south with 10-15 kt SW`rly winds with gusts
up to 20 kts noted to the south of the front with winds
shifting to a NE-E direction at 5-10 kts behind the front. This
front is forecast to continue south through the day and stall
just south of the area by SAt evening. Seas remain around 2-4 ft
through the rest of the period.


Outlook (Sat night through Wed): The risk of thunderstorms will
increase into early next week, with best chances in the late
afternoon to evening hours. A front will cross Sat and stall to
the S. SWerly flow returns SUN with another chance for more SCAs
ahead of a front set to approach and then stall over ENC on
MON. This front will clear through by midweek with high pressure
briefly returning thereafter.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM EDT this
     afternoon for NCZ090>092-094-193>195-198-199.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
     AMZ152-154.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MS
AVIATION...MS
MARINE...MS