Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

044
FXUS62 KMHX 101038
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
638 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Summertime pattern continues over the next several days with
daily chances for shower and thunderstorm activity. An extended
period of hot temperatures are also expected this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Heat will be the name of the game over the
next few days as the Bermuda high centered off the coast will
slide S`wards towards the Gulf Coast States while a thermal
trough remains over the Piedmont. This will keep low level flow
generally SW to W over the next several days. As a result, some
weak WAA will allow low level thicknesses to increase closer to
1430m. Based off the offices climatological study this is
forecast to result in highs in the low to mid 90s across the
inland areas and upper 80s to low 90s along the OBX and coast
through much of the week before a front impacts the region
resulting in cooler temperatures late week into the weekend.

Heat indices are forecast to peak around 100-105 this afternoon,
just shy of advisory criteria, but are expected to climb to
around 105-110 Tue through Thurs, and potentially lingering
into Fri with heat headlines probably for much of the area.
Lows will be in the 70s which won`t provide much relief from
the heat either. We encourage anyone planning on spending alot
of time outdoors this week to take proper precautions and stay
hydrated.

Otherwise, a typical summer time pattern will be in place through
much the week. Near zonal flow aloft with a series of shortwave
troughs pushing across the area will result climo precip chances for
the next several days with best chances through peak heating and
seabreeze related for the most part but will also depend on timing
and exact location of individual shortwave troughs. The severe
threat appears minimal for the next couple of days with limited
shear, though somewhat better shear develops toward the middle
of the week. We do look to have increased precipitation chances
closer to Fri and into next weekend with the approach of an
incoming cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AMD NOT SKED continues to be appended to the KEWN TAF due to an
ongoing FAA comms issue that is impacting dissemination of the
observation information. However, TAFs will continue to be
issued while the issue is troubleshooted. NKT is the closest
ASOS. EWN is able to be dialed into to receive METARs.

Pred VFR conditions expected through much of the day. Guidance
is mixed with convective coverage this afternoon with many HiRes
models keeping the area dry. However, shortwave energy will be
pushing across the area this afternoon and some guidance does
bring scattered thunderstorms this afternoon, with best coverage
east of Highway 17. Given the uncertainly in the models kept
prob30 for thunderstorms in coastal TAF sites.

Outlook (Tuesday through Friday): Primarily VFR conditions and
light winds are forecast into mid week as high pressure builds
into the area. Given ample low level moisture there is a low end
chance for patchy ground fog to develop each morning. Isolated
to scattered convection will be possible each day that could
bring brief periods of sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
A typical summertime pattern across the waters with S-SW winds
around 5-15 kt during the morning hours, increasing to around
10-20 kt during the afternoon and evening each day this week as
temps warm inland bringing a tightening of gradients between the
thermal trough inland and the offshore high. Gusts may approach
SCA conditions across the Pamlico, Croatan/Roanoke Sounds and
coastal waters north of Cape Hatteras at times but currently not
anticipating any SCA headlines for any waters given the short
and infrequent nature of any stronger gusts. Seas will remain
around 2-4 ft into the end of the week as well.

A series of shortwave troughs will push across the coastal waters
through the week continuing to bring periods if showers and
thunderstorms, most prevalent bring nocturnal driven over the Gulf
Stream waters.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SK/RCF
AVIATION...SK/RCF
MARINE...SK/RCF