Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

967
FXUS62 KMHX 051000
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
600 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Lowered max temps but increased pops and dewpoints slightly for
the beginning of the week.

Aviation discussion updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Oppressive heat and humidity continues into the beginning of
the work week.

2) A more active pattern takes shape, especially Monday and
Tuesday, where showers and storms are expected each day.

3) Another round of dangerously high heat and humidity builds
mid to late week into the weekend.

4) A very unstable atmosphere develops in tandem with the high
heat and humidity mid to late in the week, and could produce a
few strong to severe thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Today`s fcst calls for lower Max temps by
several degrees compared to yesterday`s records, and thus
apparent t`s will drop a few degrees as TD`s remain the same.
This will bring marginal heat adv criteria with vals around 105
for inland areas of ENC. No changes to current heat headlines.

Have continued to blend NBM with ECS/MAV/MET guide which is
closer to reality as NBM continues several degrees too high
with MaxTs.

For tonight, increasing moisture with rising TD`s will make for
a very oppressive overnight with min T`s around the 80th% per
latest EFI. Lows range from the mid/upr 70s interior to low 80s
coast.

Monday, temps cont to drop a few degrees again, with highs
mainly in the low 90s inland to upper 80s coast. However, with
the aforementioned higher TD`s in place, heat indices may
actually be a few degrees higher than Sunday`s readings.
Contemplated extending the heat advisory through the Sunday
night into the Monday afternoon period, though held off as
convective initiation may occur by as early as noon Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Return to a pattern of increased shower and
tstorms chances Mon into Tue, possibly into Wed as well. A
series of shortwaves, inland troughing, and a very slow moving
backdoor front will converge to produce higher than climo
coverage of showers and storms each afternoon to early evening,
and pops cont in the 50-70% range, with much needed rain across
a good portion of ENC expected. No severe expected, as wind
shear will be very low. With any summer storm, cannot rule out
some wet microbursts as PW`s will be quite high, in the 2.25"
range. Another round of decent covg of afternoon showers/storms
possible Wed as the aforementioned boundaries may still be in
place.

Beyond mid week, pops return back to climo (20-40%) as more
typical seabreeze showers/storms return. Hts/thicknesses slowly
build in the process as ridging begins to build once again, with
heat indices 100-105 in the forecast.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Aforementioned ridging builds mid to late week
into the weekend, as ensemble mean heights rise back to above
normal, and forecast temps reach well into the 90s, pushing heat
indices to potentially AoA 105 deg again as a very humid
atmosphere will be in place as well. EFI for both min and max
t`s are pushing into the 80th percentile esp late in the week.

KEY MESSAGE 4...With the aforementioned high heat and humidity
expected, a very unstable atmosphere develops per med range
guidance hinting at ML CAPES aoa 3.5k J/KG, and SFC based
instability between 4-5k J/KG. As is typical this time of year,
deep layer shear will not be too strong, but any storms that can
develop with some upper level support could produce strong
downdraft/microburst winds and very heavy rain characterized by
PW`s exceeding 2".

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Patchy fog will  linger up to 12Z at OAJ where winds will be
lighter, and thus far have seen vsbys bounce between 1/2sm and
3sm. Have maintained the fog potential in OAJ`s tempo group.
Some low level stratus will develop in respoonse to a steadily
moistening atmosphere, but will scour out quickly this morning
leading to a VFR day with just some patchy diurnal cu. Have
added a tempo group for several hours as the afternoon through
early evening sea breeze pushes through, with gusts approaching
20 just behind the sea breeze passage.

Outlook (Mon through Thurs): Upper ridge breaks down Monday
with shortwave energy bringing good chances for showers and
thunderstorms and sub-VFR conditions Mon into Tue, possibly into
Wed as well. Beyond mid week, more typical iso to widely sct
activity expected as ridging rebuilds into ENC.

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds generally 5-15 kt will cont today, with the
lightest winds in the morning, inc in the afternoon to evening
as thermal gradient tightens, but gusts generally remain at or
below 20 kt. Seas cont around 2-3 ft with up to 4 ft possible
across the outer zones.

Outlook (Mon through Wed): Bermuda high pulls offshore into
Monday with a front slowly dropping south across the Mid-
Atlantic serving to tighten gradient a bit and expect winds to
increase to around 15-20 kt and seas building to 3-5 ft.
Guidance forecasting gusts around 25 kt for Mon night esp
Pamlico sounds and adjacent nearshore waters, so will have to
watch for potential future SCA issuance for a time. The gradient
relaxes Tue morning with winds returning to 5-15 kt. Weakening
front moves into the waters on Wed, though as is typical in
July, the front appears to wash out, with any nern flow behind
it short lived with return flow developing as early as Wed
evening.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for 7/5 (Sunday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        99/1990  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   92/2018  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville     100/2002  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   93/2020  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston        104/1902  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    97/1990  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TL/CEB
AVIATION...TL/RCF
MARINE...TL/CEB