Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

669
FXUS62 KMHX 300734
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
334 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast. Aviation disco up dated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) High pressure remains in place through Friday with light
winds and above normal temperatures.

2) Moisture returns with a cold front and low pressure system
bringing next chance of rain this weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...As a weak upper level trough exits the eastern seaboard
today, it will be replaced by an upper level ridge with high
pressure and southerly flow at the surface. Center of the SFC
slides off the coast near the VA/NC border this afternoon, This
will keep conditions dry but we will see a return of warmer
temperatures and higher humidities each day, culminating with
some very warm temperatures by the end of the week.

For reference, normal highs in early October are around 80 degrees,
and forecast highs are in the mid to upper 80s for much of ENC, with
some 90s possible inland THU, likely low 90s MaxTs FRI. Next
iteration of AFD will include CLIMATE section for FRI`s record
highs. Persistent southerly flow and increasing low- level
moisture should help to keep overnight lows higher as well, and
well above the normal lows of around 60.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Precipitation chances return for the weekend as
Gulf moisture opens up and a cold front drapes across the
southern Appalachians and pushes southeastward slowly on
Saturday. This will squeeze moisture into eastern NC elevating
rain chances for the weekend. While thunderstorms will be
possible, the threat for severe weather is low at this time.

The front loses steam as it approaches the coast, potentially
briefly stalling over Coastal Carolinas, ahead of a second
reinforcing front spurred from the Great Lakes by a stronger
trough aloft.

For now, ensemble guidance is showing about a 30-50% chance of
exceeding 1" of rain with this system. Any rain will be helpful,
especially for the coastal plain of ENC that is currently in
moderate to extreme drought.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Cloud cover continues to linger along the cool side of a
stubborn front analyzed along the Carolina coastline this
evening, with background wind fields light but generally SEerly
south of the boundary but east to northeasterly flow to its
north. Gradual dissipation of clouds is expected through the
overnight with majority of obs in the FA showings winds have
already decoupled. Modest uptick in low- level moisture
suggests a better chance for fog compared to yesterday morning
- LAMP probabilities are a bit higher as well, sitting at 20-30%
for IFR or worse for all terminals.

Continued previous TAFs showing an immediate drop to IFR after
07-08z and the introduction of potential low stratus as well.
Inland terminals are slightly more favored to see VIS issues.
Fog should lift back to VFR conditions fairly quickly after
sunrise Wednesday. VFR prevails through WED with diurnal CU
field and winds becoming SE through the day as high pressure
slides offshore aiding the seabreeze circulation through.

Outlook: Other than a nightly risk of reduced VIS in BR/MIFG/FG, a
low-impact aviation period is expected through the end of the work
week. Precipitation chances increase for the weekend as a frontal
system approaches from the northwest. Showers and thunderstorms are
possible Saturday and Sunday with the potential for more extended
periods of sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Buoys across the area showing 2 ft seas prevailing across all
waters with 9-10s periods common. Light easterly winds at around
5 kts gusting to 10 kts in most locations. In the wake of an
exiting low pressure system, a 5-10kt easterly flow is expected
to continue across all waters. Of note, some funneling through
the Albemarle Sound may allow a period of 10-15kt winds there.
East to southeast flow persists into Wednesday, but will remain
light. For the coastal waters, seas of 2-3ft will be common
through Wednesday.

Outlook: Good boating conditions are expected through at least
Friday. By the weekend, a front will be approaching the area from
the NW, and this is expected to lead to a modest increase in south
to southwest winds, 10-15G20KT FRI afternoon. Increasing
moisture plus weak instability may eventually lead to a risk of
thunderstorms as well, especially on Sunday. At this time
conditions look to remain below small craft advisory levels
through the weekend, becoming increasingly more likely early
next week behind a stronger reinforcing cold front on MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CEB
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...RM/CEB