Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

880
FXUS62 KMHX 092306
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
706 PM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Lowered temps a couple degrees for Thu and Fri.

Lowered N OBX temps 5+ degrees through next four days.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Risk of dangerous heat later this week.

2) Pattern expected to become more conducive for showers and
thunderstorms for the weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Very warm low-level thicknesses are forecast to
overspread the Carolinas from mid-week on as we get into a WSW
low- level flow pattern. NBM guidance continues too warm with
temps, however, records will still be in jeopardy, esp Fri (see
climate section below for record high info). The caveats each
day will be the coverage of convection (see KEY MESSAGE 2 for
additional details), and the potential for high
clouds/convective debris. Both of those factors can have
significant impacts on the temperature forecast each day.
Regardless, persistent swrly flow will allow dewpoints to
steadily rise through the 70s each day. This will lead to
higher humidity and increasing "feels like" temperatures even on
the days with convection/clouds. The chances for afternoon
convection are quite low Thu and Fri, with low level thicknesses
peaking on Fri and suggesting the hottest day of the week.
Probabilistic guidance currently shows a 50-70% chance of
exceeding 95 degrees for inland areas away from the coast. This
combined with dewpoints in the low 70s suggests a widespread
area of "feels like" temperatures of ~105 degrees. This setup
could lead to the first heat headlines of the summer season. The
NWS` experimental Heat Risk guidance shows much of ENC in the
major category, with a few areas nearing the extreme category.

KEY MESSAGE 2...From a 50,000ft perspective, the synoptic
pattern is expected to shift towards something more favorable
for convection across ENC esp this weekend into early next
week. However, this shouldn`t be read as a high coverage of
thunderstorms each day. In fact most of the day will be rain
free, but as is typical in convective season in ENC, hit and
miss storms are going to dot the area each afternoon through
early evening.

Firstly, an upper level shortwave is forecast to move through
the Mid- Atlantic and Carolinas late Wednesday into Thursday.
This wave is forecast to interact with a moistening and
gradually destabilizing airmass, supporting clusters of
convection from Virginia south into the Piedmont of NC.
Locally, temps aloft will be very warm, with 850 temps of
15-20C. This will have a tendency to support some residual
capping, and may tend to lead to a weakening trend with any
convection that approaches our area from the west/northwest.
Given the increased forcing with the wave, though, it stands to
reason that at least some weak, elevated convection could
survive into the area, and the forecast reflects this potential
for Wed evening for a potential weakening MCS with 30% chances
for showers or storms. Very warm temps aloft may continue to
cap a greater coverage of convection into Friday, and thus
afternoon rain chances are only 20%, so slightly below climo.

Over the weekend, temps aloft "cool" slightly, and this may
support at least a risk of higher coverage seabreeze
convection.

Early next week, guidance is now hinting at the potential for a
front to move through with higher than climo shower and storm
chances. Additionally, deep layer shear of around 30-35kt along
the front may support a modest increase in the potential for
organized convection, some of which could be on the strong side.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Typical summertime pattern expected to persist through the TAF
period as high pressure remains anchored offshore. Cirri likely
to plague skies through the period in light south to
southwesterly flow, which should preclude fog formation. There
is a signal for low stratus (MVFR with a low risk of IFR level)
to advect from south to north in a pool of low-level moisture,
most prominent along and west of the I-95 corridor. However,
cannot rule out some formation for inner coastal plain terminals
and introduced this threat to the 00z TAFs.

Any stratus likely to burn off at 14z with increasing
southwesterly flow after sunrise Wed, gusting up to 15 kt at
times in the afternoon. Surface trough and attendant mid-level
disturbance will pose a threat for sct showers and
thunderstorms, but this is most likely after 00z.

Outlook (Thu through Mon): Risk of showers/storms is quite low
Thu and Fri, but not 0. Better chance for afternoon/evening
showers/storms this weekend into early next week, with tempo
reductions in vsby and/or cigs accompanying the heavier
showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds cont to veer to serly, then srly overnight with speeds
remaining in the 5-15 kt range. Seas in the 2-4 ft range. Then
tomorrow (Wed) afternoon, thermal gradient leads to inc in
nearshore winds (eastern Pamlico/Croatan sounds and adjacent
coastal waters N of C Hatteras), where SCA may be needed after
21Z tomorrow. Probs for 25+ kt winds are above 60% for these
areas, and due to it being 3rd period, will hold off on any
headlines for this attm.

Outlook (Thu through Mon): A typical summertime regime, with
swrly gradient flow maxing out between 21Z and 06Z each evening
leading to marginal 25+ kt winds gusts in the favored areas
mentioned above. Seas of 3-5ft will be common. The risk of
thunderstorms will increase late- week into early next week,
with best chances in the late afternoon to evening hours.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for 06/12 (Friday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        95/2016  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   89/1922  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      98/1914  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   92/1952  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         95/1986  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    95/2016  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TL
AVIATION...MS
MARINE...TL