Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

997
FXUS62 KMHX 090016
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
716 PM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Record highs will be threatened for some on Friday and Saturday
as very warm high pressure dominates. A cold front will move
through Sunday and bring showers to the area Sat night into Sun
morning. A return to colder and drier early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 7 PM Thurs...Made some tweaks to temps and dewpoints
given recent trends and mo clear skies outside of some thin
cirrus. While this has allowed temps to lower rather quickly
this evening into the upper 40s to 50s across ENC, a slower
decrease in temps is forecast for the rest of tonight as light
onshore flow persists. In addition to this given the increasing
signal, have added in some patchy fog/low stratus across much of
ENC outside of the NE`rn zones and the OBX as we should reach
our crossover temps tonight given the current temps trends. In
addition to this, light winds and moist low levels should also
help promote this threat. Only caveat is if any thicker cirrus
develops later tonight this may spoil the patchy fog/low stratus
threat.

Prev Disc...Lows will be well above normal tonight with mild
temps in the low to mid 40s across the coastal plain and low 50s
at the beaches. With near saturated surface conditions and
light winds overnight, fog and low stratus will be possible.
Areas south of Highway 70 have the greatest chance at seeing fog
late tonight/early tomorrow morning, but our coverage of mid
and high clouds overnight will play a large role in whether or
not fog is able to develop.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
As of 3 PM Thu...The dry cold front that moved through last
night/early this morning will lift back north as a warm front
tomorrow. This will bring increasing heights/thicknesses as
winds return to the SW, which will send high temps into the mid
70s across interior zones and 60s along the coast. Some record
highs may be possible for some (see record section below). With
this front lifting north and a weak prefrontal trough developing
along the coast, some light showers or sprinkles will be
possible along the OBX, but PoPs remain below slight chance
(<15%).

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 2:50 PM Thursday...

Saturday...The aforementioned prefrontal trough will continue
to threaten the area with some light showers during the first
half of Saturday with the immediate coast and inland zones
having the best chances (30-50%). Cloud cover will dissipate
some by the afternoon as stronger deep layer SW flow and brief
riding takes over ahead of a strong cold front. Record highs
will be possible once again with highs in the mid to upper 70s
inland and upper 60s at the beaches.

Sunday...Aforementioned cold front sweeps through on Sunday.
Shower chances maximize during the morning, and although QPF not
expected to be overly impressive, strong forcing and lift in
place and have raised pops as a result into the low end likely
range (50-75%). CAA during the afternoon with falling temps
late in the day behind fropa.

Early next week...Cool but seasonable temperatures and mostly
dry weather is forecast for early next week as deep trough
swings through with lowered hts/thicknesses. Highs in the 40s
for Mon then 50s on Tue as moderating airmass ensues. Lows will
be in the 20s to near 30.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 715 PM Thursday...

Key Messages

 - Patchy fog and stratus bringing sub-VFR conditions becoming
   increasingly likely tonight, most probable south of Highway
   70.

High pressure near the Delmarva Peninsula will continue to
slide offshore tonight as a warm front lifts north across the
region Fri morning. As of right now VFR conditions persist
across ENC under a mix of sct to bkn high cirrus and should
continue over the next several hours. However, after midnight as
skies clear a bit more, low level moisture remains in place,
and winds remain light, fog and low level stratus become a
concern. Latest Hi-Res guidance has trended slightly more
aggressive with the fog threat with both RRFS and HREF showing
a 40-60% chance at sub VFR fog and low stratus along and south
of Hwy 70 with a 30-50% chance north of Hwy 70%. While the
increase is minimal in nature as far as threat, then trend is
noticeable, and with HRRR and NAM also showing a threat for a
mix of fog/low stratus have elected to add fog and a SCT deck of
IFR stratus into all TAF sites starting between 07Z-09Z and
persisting into about 15Z Fri before VFR conditions return to
ENC for the rest of the day Fri under steady S`rly flow.

Outlook: Fog and stratus bringing sub-VFR conditions possible
once again Friday night into Saturday morning with HREF probs
around 70% area-wide. Sub-VFR conditions possible again Saturday
night into Sunday morning with showers associated with an
approaching cold front. High pressure builds back into the area
early next week bringing a much drier airmass and expect pred
VFR conditions with limited fog potential.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 3 PM Thursday...

Key Messages...

 - Sub-SCA conditions through Saturday morning

 - 25-30 kt winds develop Saturday afternoon ahead of a strong
   cold front (near Gale force gusts along the Gulf Stream
   Saturday night/Sunday morning)

 - Cold front swings through on Sunday with gusty nwrly winds
   keeping SCA conditions through Sunday night.

 - Seas peak Saturday night at 5-8 ft, dropping below 6 ft by
   Monday morning

Through tomorrow...10-20 kt NE winds will veer to the SE
overnight and to the SW by tomorrow evening as a warm front
lifts north across the area. Seas will be 2-3 ft across all
coastal zones.

Saturday through Sunday...Two rounds of strong winds are
expected as a cold front impacts the area this weekend. The
first round will occur Saturday afternoon - early Sunday
morning, peaking Saturday night. SW winds increase to 20-30 kt
with gusts to near gale force along the Gulf Stream waters. Seas
will build to 5-8 ft during this time. Early Sunday, there will
be a slight reprieve in winds and seas as winds continue to veer
towards the west, but hazardous boating conditions will
continue. The second round of strong winds will start Sunday
night as NW winds surge behind a potent cold front. Winds will
once again be 20-30 kt with gusts to near gale force across the
Gulf Stream waters (peaking Sunday night) and seas building
back up to 4-6 ft during this time.

Boating conditions will improve to sub-SCA by Monday morning as
high pressure builds back in.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for 01/09 (Friday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        79/1937  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   73/1937  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      75/1930  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   70/2013  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         71/2013  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    77/1974  (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 01/10 (Saturday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        78/1974  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   70/2020  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      79/1937  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   73/1983  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         75/1974  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    80/1974  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF/OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...OJC
AVIATION...SK/RCF
MARINE...OJC