Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

152
FXUS62 KMHX 222335
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
735 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Additional Small Craft Advisories issued for the inland rivers
and gale watches have been upgraded to Gale Warnings.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Well above normal to near record high temperatures will be
possible this afternoon

2) Strong cold front expected Monday with scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible, best chances near Crystal Coast

4) Another frontal system moves through late-week.

Marine: SCA to low end Gale likely Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...As expected temperatures have warmed steadily into
the 80s inland and into the 70s along the immediate coast and
OBX with an ongoing seabreeze making its way inland as of this
update. With steady SW`rly flow persisting this afternoon and
low level thicknesses ~1400m this supports highs in the mid to
upper 80s across our inland counties with record high temps
being threatened today. See CLIMATE section below for records.
Once again, did use a blend of MOS guidance to keep temps along
the NOBX higher than the NBM given SW flow regimes bring a
warmer continental airmass over the NOBX and the NBM typically
under does these regimes. This results in mid- upper 70s across
the NOBX.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Minor tweaks to the forecast for Monday but the
overall flavor of the forecast remains. An upper level trough
quickly tracks east-southeast across the Upper Midwest and into the
Ohio River Valley/Northeast tonight into Monday. The base of this
upper troughing will extend southwards into the Mid-Atlantic Mon and
into Tue. Its associated mid level shortwave rounds the base of this
trough at the same time. At the surface, this brings a backdoor cold
front quickly through the area on Mon. While the strongest upper
level forcing likely remains to the north, steep low level lapse
rates should be sufficient enough to promote low level forcing. Still
seeing moisture pooling out ahead of the front with PWATs jumping to
1.25-1.75 inches on Monday morning/afternoon especially across the
Crystal Coast where the highest PWAT values will likely be found.
With the late morning to afternoon timing of cold front, this will
allow us to warm up, especially across areas south of Hwy 264 where
cloud cover will be slightly delayed in getting to these areas thus
allowing for slightly more warming as compared to our northern
zones. Highs get into the low 80s south of Hwy 264 with 60s to upper
70s along our northern tier and OBX forecast. Either way, this
allows for increasing instability ahead of the front, with
500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPEs forecast. Ahead of this front, 0-6km
bulk shear is forecast to be 30-40kt, sufficient for structured
tstorm development. As the front collides with the afternoon sea
breeze, numerous showers and some tstorms are likely to form at
the intersection point. Steep low level lapse rates can help
bring some stronger winds down to the surface in the strongest
of storms. Latest Hi-Res guidance does suggest that areas
especially across our northern tier could remain dry all day
with the Crystal Coast and areas along and south of Hwy 264
having the highest chance at seeing precip. With this in mind
have structured the PoP forecast to reflect this with SChc to
Chc PoPs along our norther tier and Chc to Likely PoPs further
south.

A low confidence aspect of this event is the chance for brief, weak
tornadoes or waterspouts. Current model hodographs aren`t too
supportive of anything spinning up, but as the front interacts with
the sea breeze, it is possible for the front to slow down a tad at
the surface due to the collision, but still progressing SE`ward
above the sea breeze. This would cause some more curvature to the
hodograph than models indicate, as SW winds at the surface are
superimposed by N winds aloft. Localized enhancements of low level
SRH could occur, should this setup happen. Again, this is a LOW
confidence outcome, but was worth a mention as a "worst case"
scenario. Behind the front, we will see a rapid increase of
northerly winds with temps dropping through the afternoon and
into evening. With this afternoon progression of the winds, the
only concern fire wx wise is the abrupt shift in wind direction
from north to south Mon afternoon.

Behind this front a second upper level reinforcing shortwave will
dive SE`wards across the Southeastern CONUS bringing a shot at
cooler temps Wed morning as high pressure builds overhead. While
temps briefly get into the mid 30s across our NW`rn zones Wed
morning, not expecting a frost threat but it is something to
monitor.

KEY MESSAGE 3: A positively tilted upper trough moves through the
eastern seaboard late week as a shortwave/low crosses the Great
Lakes, rounding the base of a more potent low over Hudson Bay. A
weak cold front trails from this weaker of the two lows, progged to
move through the Carolinas late week. There remains a fair amount of
uncertainty with front timing on the deterministic guidance but
ensemble guidance does show this front moving through at some point
this weekend. While this is a broader timeframe than usual of
frontal timing this front could bring some much needed rain, though
exact timing of this rainfall is still up in the air. As of right
now, no major concerns are expected.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to continue through tomorrow morning
at least, and then a brief period of MVFR conditions will be
possible as a cold front moves through the area.

Strengthening winds aloft will lead to LLWS impacts tonight
into Mon morning. A cold front will move through the terminals
Monday afternoon, bringing a wind shift along with sct showers
and iso tstms. Ceiling heights will lower to 2000-3000 ft for a
couple hour period as the front and shower activity move
through, with MVFR visibilities also possible in any convective
showers. SW winds early Monday, becoming WNW with gusts 20-25
kt behind the front.

Outlook: Pred VFR conditions expected Monday night through mid
week. Another front will approach the area late week, which
could bring periods of sub-VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Steady SW winds at 10-15 kts with a few gusts up towards 20 kts
and 2-4 ft seas are currently noted across area waters this
afternoon as ENC remains between high pressure ridging to the
south and east and an approaching cold front well to the west.
Expect SW winds to continue to increase tonight as the pressure
gradient begins to tighten across the region as the cold front
begins to approach, with small craft advisory conditions being
met across the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet as winds
increase to 20-25 kts with gusts up to 30 kts and seas build to
4-7 ft. Elsewhere winds increase closer to 15-20 kts with a few
gusts up towards 25 kts across the Pamlico Sound. Given the
weaker winds here, elected to not issue small crafts elsewhere.
Aforementioned cold front then moves through the area on Monday
quickly shifting SW`rly winds to a N-NE`rly direction behind
the front. Winds increase even further to 20-30 kts across our
waters Mon afternoon and evening with gusts up around 30-40kts.
As a result have added the inland rivers to the small craft
advsiory`s along with the northern sounds, Pamlico Sound and
Northern Coastal Waters. Once again could see a few infrequent
gusts to 35 kts in the Pamlico Sound Mon night after the frontal
passage but confidence is too low to upgrade from a small craft
advisory to a gale warning. However, confidence is high we see
gales along our coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet so have
upgraded gale watches to Gale Warnings here. Seas build to 6-10
ft behind the front as well, highest over the Gulf Stream. These
hazardous marine conditions then persist through Mon night
before gradually easing on Tue.

Outlook: By Tuesday evening conditions ease further and more
benign boating conditions are forecast by midweek as high
pressure ridging builds in from the north and west. Late week
frontal system may bring another round of elevated wind gusts
and seas.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for 03/22 (Sunday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern         89/1948  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    75/2011  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville     87/1936  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City  82/2011  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston        95/1907  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville  86/2011  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Monday to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for
     AMZ131-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Monday to 2 PM EDT Tuesday for
     AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Monday to 5 AM EDT Tuesday for
     AMZ136-137.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for
     AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154-156-
     158.
     Gale Warning from 5 PM Monday to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-
     154-156-158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RCF/RJ
AVIATION...CQD/SGK
MARINE...RCF/RJ