Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

629
FXUS62 KMHX 080520
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
120 AM EDT Fri May 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Rain chances have decreased a bit this weekend.

There is a chance of scattered severe thunderstorms on Monday
along with periods of heavy rain.

Extended the SCA for the central waters through 6 AM and the
southern waters through 2 AM.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rain exits this evening, with dry weather expected Friday.

2) Pops have decreased a bit for the weekend, as it appears the
bulk of showers or storms will remain mostly to the south of
Eastern NC.

3) A strong cold front will move through on Monday. Depending on
the time of day it moves through, scattered severe thunderstorms
and some heavy rain may accompany the frontal passage.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread showers through this afternoon is
keeping the thunderstorm threat at bay, and little to no chance
of severe storms are expected through the rest of the afternoon
and into the evening, before the rain ends and pushes offshore.

Surface high pressure will build in tomorrow leading to a mild,
mostly dry day with MaxTs in the low 70s (60s OBX). The high
shifts offshore FRI night with seasonably cool overnight lows
continuing in the 50s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Latest 07/12Z model suite has trended drier for
the weekend, as several low amplitude and weakly sheared
shortwaves sweep across the Mid Atlantic. GOM is cutoff from
moisture, and thus precip looks to be much more spotty in
nature. Have trended pops down to no higher than 30-50%, but
these Pops have room to go even lower if the trend holds.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Decent agreement on next stronger shortwave
and attendant cold front moving through the region on Monday.
This system will have decently strong dynamics and potentially
steeper lapse rates. Depending on diurnal timing, a severe
thunderstorm threat is possible with this system, with the main
threats appearing to be severe wind gusts and large hail, along
with heavy downpours.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The primary aviation challenge overnight will be the potential
for IFR conditions and whether or not BR/FG can develop.
Presently, a mid-level cloud layer continues to reside over much
of ENC. Mid- level drying is expected to commence soon, which
should lead to an erosion of the mid-level clouds. This will
probably allow for some breaks in the clouds, which then favors
low stratus/fog development thanks to a residually moist low-
level airmass and light winds. We`re already seeing evidence of
this upstream across central NC. Through the overnight hours, I
hit the IFR potential a bit harder, but used TEMPOs to message
when the greatest risk appears to be. Stay tuned for amendments
through the night.

VFR conditions should quickly return during the day Friday as
high pressure moves overhead. The presence of the high will be
short- lived as it quickly moves offshore by Friday night. Light
southerly flow and weak lift may support low stratus or BR/FG
development once again.

Outlook: On Saturday, a warm front is forecast to lift north
through the area in the morning, and may be accompanied by
isolated SHRA and TSRA. In the wake of this warm front, weak to
modest instability and increasing moisture may allow for a
continued risk of isolated to scattered SHRA and TSRA through
the weekend. A greater TSRA risk may develop with a frontal
boundary on Monday. Sub-VFR conditions will be possible with any
SHRA or TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
The cold front is pushing through the southern most waters late
this evening. Have see a Nly surge with gusts around 25-30 kt
for a few hours behind the front but winds are beginning to
diminish across the northern waters. Have seen gusts in the
25-30 kt range in the Pamlico Sound this evening but guidance
has winds diminishing in the next hour or two, so will forego
issuing a SCA here. Have extended the SCA until 2 AM for the
southern waters as front is just pushing to the south and expect
the surge to continue a few more hours, and also until 6 AM for
the central waters.

Seas build to 5-7ft coastal waters, 7-9ft offshore waters. Some
gale force gusts possible for several hours on the offshore
waters this evening. Showers and storms will end after around
midnight as dry air filters in. Winds slowly diminish through
the overnight, with seas subsiding by early Friday as high pres
builds in.

Outlook (Saturday through Tuesday):
The improvement will be short lived as swrly SCA winds expected
on the Gulf waters south of Oregon Inlet later Sat through Sat
night, with seas building up to 6+ ft. Winds and seas diminish
on Sunday, with next fropa expected Monday with SCA conditions
possible once again with this front.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
     AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TL/CEB
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...TL/CEB