Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

743
FXUS62 KMHX 031036
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
636 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Extended high surf advisory into this afternoon to account for
lingering elevated seas.

Updated Aviation Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Breezy again today with gradually improving conditions into
Thursday with a coastal low off the coast.

2) Hotter conditions return this weekend with next chance of
precip early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Cool temps this morning with mid to upper 40s
noted across the Coastal Plain and 50s noted closer to the
coast bringing what feels more like fall than spring to ENC.
This was notably below just about all available guidance and as
such have trended highs today and lows tonight in a similar
direction. A well defined low that had brought hazardous marine
conditions and elevated surf to the OBX on Tue is currently
noted about 200 miles to the SE of Morehead City this morning
and has continued to meander S`wards while high pressure ridge
continues to build in from the north. This has allowed for winds
to ease and become light and variable inland with stronger
winds noted along the immediate coast and OBX.

As we get further into the day today upper level trough in the
Mid-Atlantic digs further south eventually cutting off this
morning and then pulls away from the area tonight into Thurs.
At the surface, this will allow the previously mentioned
surface low to meander offshore today before pushing out to sea
tonight while deepening. While the pressure gradient will
remain tight, it will be weaker than yesterday. On top of the
tighter pressure gradient, inland areas will be well mixed as
well allowing for widespread 20-30 mph NE`rly wind gusts across
ENC later this morning and afternoon with the strongest gusts
across the OBX. Seas look to remain elevated through the
morning. So while borderline, have extended the high surf
advisory into this afternoon to account for any lingering swell,
though the main impacts would likely be across the more
vulnerable locations across Hatteras Island.

Temps are slightly warmer today getting into the 80s inland and
70s along the OBX. As we get into tonight high pressure builds
overhead allowing the pressure gradient to relax and winds to
ease. With a dry airmass overhead expect clear skies and thus
another great radiational cooling night. With this in mind have
gone on the low end of guidance below the NBM. Lows tonight get
into the low 50s inland to low 60s across the OBX.

KEY MESSAGE 2...As we get into Friday and this weekend, low
offshore is forecast to push further out to sea with high
pressure becoming anchored off the coast this weekend. This will
bring steady S-SW`rly flow, increasing low level thicknesses,
and warming temps with highs forecast to get back into the 90s
inland and 80s along the coast and OBX bringing a return to more
summer like temps. Long term probabilistic guidance continues to
suggest a probability of a Moderate or higher HeatRisk to be
about 60-80%+ on Saturday/Sunday across portions of ENC, so
those sensitive to heat issues are encouraged to keep an eye on
the forecast over the next few days. Next potential frontal
passage looks to occur early next week with typical longer range
timing and location uncertainty with this feature. THis could
bring our next best chance at some wetting rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue through the period as high pressure
builds overhead and brings ample dry air to ENC. With this in
mind, the main weather impact across all routes will be the wind
forecast. Low pressure that had brought strong winds to ENC
yesterday continues to meander offshore today. As of this update
this has resulted in 15-20 kt NE`rly gusts across the OBX with
lighter winds across inland areas. Expect this to continue into
late this morning before wind gusts increase to about 15-20 kts
across all inland routes as the area mixes rather efficiently.
Winds then ease for good tonight as the low pulls away from ENC
with light and variable winds forecast tonight. Given the dry
airmass not expecting any MIFG or low clouds tonight either.

Outlook: High pressure will gradually push offshore by the end
of the week, with winds becoming S`rly by late Thursday and
into Friday. Winds will remain light into this weekend.
Predominantly VFR conditions are expected for the remainder of
the period with high pressure in control of the ambient
weather.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs show the surface low that had brought gale force
winds and hazardous seas to our waters on Tuesday is now
meandering about 200 miles to the SE of ENC this morning. This
has allowed for the pressure gradient to weaken some as high
pressure ridging builds in from the NW thus ending the last of
the gales this morning. Latest obs show widespread 15-25 kt NE
winds with gusts up to 30 kts noted along our coastal waters
with 10-15 kt NE winds with gusts up to 20 kts noted inland.
This has resulted in the end of SCA`s across all inland waters
with ongoing SCA`s persisting across our nearshore coastal
waters. Seas this morning have generally remained around 7-11 ft
near shore and 10-15 ft across the offshore waters. As the low
slowly meanders away from the area winds should continue to ease
today and tonight with NE`rly winds falling to 10-20 kts with a
few gusts up near 25 kts at times by Thurs morning. Seas will
also be on the downtrend later today and tonight as the
aforementioned low pulls away falling to 5-8 ft by tonight.
While this will keep SCA`s out across all our coastal waters
conditions will have markedly improved since yesterday.

Outlook: A return to more typical warm-season patterns late in
the week and through this weekend with south to southwesterly
flow and localized surges in the late afternoon and evening
associated with thermal gradients.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ196-
     203>205.
     High Surf Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RCF
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...RCF