Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

336
FXUS62 KMHX 010029
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
829 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Fresh winds/gusts in grids through FRI to better capture winds
going light and variable ahead of the high pressure surge
working from N to S through the area after midnight local.

Aviation disco updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rain chances decreasing from SW to NE this afternoon and
evening as remnants of MCS move offshore.

2) Rain arrives this weekend as a low pressure system develops
off of the southeast coast on Saturday and drags a frontal
system through the area Saturday night.

3) Cold front moves through the middle of next week

Marine: Small craft advisory for the central waters continues
into Friday. Low pressure passing off the coast will bring
heightened winds and seas this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Remnants of a MCS have moved offshore, with
lingering stratiform rain slowly ending from SW to NE through
the rest of this afternoon and evening. About 0.1"-0.25" of
precip has been observed so far south of hwy 70, decreasing as
you go inland. No thunder expected over land for the remainder
of today.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Guidance remains in good agreement with a low
pressure system passing just off the coast Saturday bringing
much needed rainfall to the region. As this is happening, an
upper level low centered over Ontario and Quebec will work to
deepen an upper level trough that will begin to push a
supporting wave out of Texas which will eventually elongate into
the frontal system that will accompany the coastal low. The
merged systems will push through Saturday into Sunday and move
offshore but not before some significant rainfall. Probabilities
for at least an inch of rainfall are still high, and decreased a
tad inland. While NBM probs for precip greater than one inch
inland are greater than 60%, GEFS and EPS show a different
story, generally in the 20-60% range. With the best moisture,
instability, and forcing along the coast and offshore, the
current thinking is rainfall totals inland will trend towards
the lower end of guidance. Chances for precip > 1" along the
coast S of Oregon Inlet are now 60-90%, decreasing a bit to
30-60% inland west of hwy 17.

As far as convection is concerned, currently most of the
instability remains offshore with northerly flow keeping
profiles more stable over land. This should keep rainfall rates
low enough to preclude any flash flooding threat, especially
when paired with the drought conditions in place. Still a lot of
uncertainty in the models regarding how strong the low will get
and will have to monitor as the system gets closer.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A cold front moves through the middle of next
week, with an upper level trough digging towards the mid-
atlantic and SE. Still some uncertainty with the timing, as
ECMWF has the frontal passage coming through Thu afternoon, and
the GFS has the frontal passage Wed night/Thu morning. Ensemble
probs for PWATs greater than 1.5" ahead of this front are
currently 30-50%. If the model consensus shifts to the afternoon
Thursday, and the upper level support remains just as
impressive, instability would be maximized and we would have to
start thinking about severe potential. Machine learning severe
probs are highest in the mid-atlantic and SE US Thursday. At
this point there is enough uncertainty to just take a wait and
see approach.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR flight cats expected through the 00Z TAF period with all
showers now offshore. The one exception to this will be a brief
period when winds are expected to be light and variable,
potentially decoupling before high pressure begins to build
Sward across the region, picking winds back up mixing the near
SFC levels out. With the rainfall earlier today, terminals have
a small window where patchy fog may develop ahead of this Nerly
wind surge should skies be clear enough to radiate well. Have
introduced 6sm MIFG for a few sites and advertise the calm winds
to show the potential. VIS guidance isn`t hinting at this, but
given their performance over the past 3-4 days, don`t trust
leaning on them too much for completely counting this
possibility out. Winds pick back up 6Z-ish, which should limit
the density with which any potential fog achieves. Thin mid and
high clouds will linger overnight, increasing Fri morning ahead
of the next system.

Outlook: Conditions will deteriorate Friday night into Saturday
as widespread rain, low VIS and CIGs overspread ENC. Expect VFR
to return Sunday and continue into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Thunderstorm chances for warm Gulf Stream waters are decreasing
as the MCS moves further offshore. A northerly surge around
15-20 kt develops tonight behind the departing MCS and some of
the strongest HiRes models suggesting a brief period of winds
approaching SCA criteria. Seas have been around 3-5 ft for
waters but the central waters are expected to rise at or above 6
ft again tonight. Despite the relatively lower seas right now,
the anticipated increase later today keeps the inherited SCA
unchanged.

Outlook: Another low pressure system will pass across or just
south of the waters late in the week which will likely bring
another round of Small Craft Advisory conditions Saturday into
Sunday. Still high uncertainty on gale potential for coastal
waters and the Pamlico Sound, with EPS probs of gale force gusts
> 60%, but GEFS probs < 20%.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Friday through Friday
     evening for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for AMZ152-154.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SK/RJ
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...SK/RJ