Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

288
FXUS62 KMHX 101915
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
215 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Precip chances have decreased on Thursday and Friday. Winds have
also trended downwards as well this weekend.

Updated Aviation Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Above normal temperatures through Thursday.

2) Surface low passes to the north with its associated cold front
tracking across ENC near the end of the week bringing breezy
conditions to the area. Behind the cold front well below normal
temperatures are forecast this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Another great fall day across ENC under clear
skies, steady SW`rly winds, and temps in the 70s this afternoon
as high pressure centered offshore remains the main weather
feature across the area.

As we get into tonight, zonal flow aloft pushes offshore as a
weak upper level trough out ahead of a second and stronger
upper level trough noted well to the west in the Upper Midwest
pushes across the Southeast late tonight into Wednesday.
Associated weak shortwave also pushes across the Carolinas
tonight into Thurs morning as well. While there will be forcing
in place, with ample dry air over the Mid-Atlantic, outside of
high cirrus overspreading ENC tonight not expecting any precip
with this shortwave. Winds look to decouple tonight as well, so
if cirrus remains thin enough another threat for some non
impactful ground fog will be possible especially along the coast
where the lightest winds will be in place. Dry weather
continues across ENC through Fri with slightly above avg temps
as highs get into the 70s Wed/Thurs.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Biggest change in the forecast for later this
week and weekend is that both precip chances and winds have
been trending down for this weekends system. Deep upper level
trough in the Upper Mid-West will dive SE`wards into the Ohio
River Valley Thurs into Fri with associated jet streak pushing
off the east coast and strengthening during this timeframe.
At the same time, strong shortwave also rounds the base of this
trough Thurs into Fri as well promoting lift across the Eastern
Seaboard. At the surface, low pressure in the Upper Mid-West on
Wed pushes SE`wards on Thurs while deepening and then
transferring its energy to a second offshore low south of Long
Island. This has been where the biggest change in the forecast
has occured as ensemble, AI, and deterministic guidance has
trended towards a more northern track for this surface low
which as a result has trended precip chances down once again to
sub-mentionable levels and has lowered the winds. So while the
30-40+ mph gust risk has lowered it will still be breezy across
ENC Thurs and again on Fri with steady 10-20 mph W-NW winds and
gusts up to 25-35 mph possible. While winds have trended
downward, if the strongest gusts are realized over a longer
amount of time Thurs/Fri we could still see some minor coastal
flooding concerns across the soundside OBX mainly north of
Oregon Inlet, though confidence is low that this is more than
nuisance water level rises given the decreasing trend in wind
guidance.

Behind the system, unseasonably cool air will flood into the
area as Canadian high pressure system builds into the Eastern
Seaboard this weekend behind the departing low knocking highs
down into the 50s for the weekend and into early next week and
offer the first real opportunity for a freeze Sat night and Sun
night as lows get into the 30s each night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are noted across ENC this afternoon with steady
SW`rly winds as high pressure remains centered offshore. Expect
continued VFR conditions for the most part across ENC through
the next 24 hours as the high offshore remains the primary
weather feature across the region. Will note much like last
night we will likely decouple, which could once again lead to
some patchy non-operationally impactful ground fog Wed morning
mainly along the same TAF sites that saw it last night. Though
guidance continues to suggest a blanket of high clouds over
much of ENC tonight so that could limit this threat. For now
have put in a line for 5SM MIFG at OAJ/EWN/MRH for now after 09Z
as this area looks to have the best shot at seeing ground fog.
Either way, no impact to operations is forecast. VFR conditions
return regardless on Wed under light S`rly winds.

Outlook: Mainly VFR conditions are forecast through Wed night
as high pressure and a much drier airmass remain in place, but
shallow patchy fog will remain possible if winds go calm.
Approaching storm system at the end of the week brings an
increase in gusty winds though given the latest guidance with a
lack of precip we could remain VFR into early next week for the
most part.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure has pushed offshore this afternoon bringing light
SW`rly winds and 2-4 ft seas across our waters this afternoon.
Winds will continue to remain light, generally around 5-15 kts out
of the W to SW with seas lowering further closer to 10-3 ft on
Wed.

Outlook: Have made some changes to the extended period for our
waters with the biggest change being that the gale force wind
potential has gone down on Fri night into Sat across our coastal
waters. Strong front approaches from the west on Thurs allowing
for SW`rly winds to increase to 10-20 kts with gusts up to
25-30 kts bringing our first threat for small craft conditions
to our waters Thurs. Front tracks across the reason on Fri
shifting winds to a NW`rly direction at 10-20 kts with gusts up
around 25-35 kts. As noted before, wind forecast has trended
down over the last day or so as strong low pressure looks to
track well to the north of the area so while gale force wind
potential has gone down, there still looks to be a solid chance
at seeing widespread SCA conditions north of the Raleigh Bay
area this weekend.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CQD/RCF
AVIATION...CEB/RCF
MARINE...CQD/RCF