Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

456
FXUS62 KMHX 100021
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
721 PM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Record highs will once again be threatened for some tomorrow.
A cold front will move through Sunday and bring scattered
showers into Sunday morning. A return to colder and drier
weather early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 7 PM Friday...Minimal tweaks to the forecast for tonight.
Of note however, is the record high that was tied at Hatteras
as KHSE hit 73 today which ties the old record set in 1937. We
will have to wait to see how close we got at other sites but we
were a few degrees below record temps at another climate site
New Bern.

Prev Disc...Impressive early January temps that have
been flirting with records are being observed across ENC (see
records section below). Latest obs show the mid to upper 70s
across the coastal plain and low 70s at the beaches. Lows will
be quite mild tonight with temps only dropping into the mid to
upper 50s (low 50s NOBX), which is warmer than the average high
temperature for this time of year. Light winds and an increase
in moisture overnight will set the stage for fog across the FA.
Guidance is hitting areas roughly east of Highway 17 the hardest
with visibilities down to 1/4 mi possible late tonight/early
tomorrow morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
As of 2:15 PM Friday...With winds remaining light through the
morning, fog may be slow to mix out and could linger several
hours after sunrise. The first part of the day may also include
some scattered light showers thanks to a weak prefrontal trough
moving through, but QPF is only a few hundredths. WAA will
continue working hard as the prefrontal ridge builds in through
the afternoon, putting ENC firmly in the warm sector and sending
temps into record breaking territory once again (see records
section below). The current forecast has highs in the mid to
upper 70s across the coastal plain and low to mid 70s at the
beaches, but with 1000-850 mb heights notably higher than today,
there`s room for these temps to be warmer if cloud cover is
less than forecast. SW winds will be pretty breezy with gusts up
to 20-30 mph possible during peak mixing.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 2:30 PM Friday...

Key Messages

 - Cold front brings light showers Saturday night through Sunday
   morning

 - Return to seasonably cool temperatures and dry weather early
   next week

Saturday Night - Sunday night...PoPs will increase Saturday night
and peak Sunday morning with the passing of a potent cold front.
PoPs are likely to categorical for most of the FA given the strong
forcing that will be in place, but unimpressive QPF in the 0.1-0.25
inch range is all that`s expected. Ahead of the front on Sunday,
temps will warm into the low to mid 60s. In the post-frontal air
mass on Sunday night, temps will tank to the mid to upper 20s across
the coastal plain and 30s along the beaches.

Early to mid next week...Cool but seasonable temperatures and mostly
dry weather is forecast for early next week as deep trough swings
through with lowered hts/thicknesses and sfc high pres moving in.
Highs 45-50 for Mon, then into the 50s through mid week. Cold lows
in the 20s for interior zones Mon night, then moderating into the
30s through mid week. Coastal system may bring some rain by Wed,
with pops ranging from 25% interior to 40% coast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 715 PM Friday...

Key Messages

 - Fog and stratus expected to bring sub-VFR conditions tonight
   into Saturday

High pressure remains well offshore this evening while steady
S`rly flow remains in place. This is forecast to continue
through the TAF period as a frontal boundary approaches from
the west on Saturday. VFR conditIons currently prevail across
ENC this evening and should continue over the next few hours.
However as winds ease this evening low level moisture advection
will set the stage for advection fog/low stratus later tonight
as a combination of sea fog and fog/low clouds to the south and
west roll into ENC and spread NE`wards late tonight into Sat
morning. This is forecast to bring IFR/LIFR conditions
overnight, mainly after midnight. NO real changes in guidance
trends for tonight as HREF has probs around 70-90% chance for
sub-VFR conditions area wide and nearly that high for IFR and
below. Guidance is slow to dissipate the fog Sat morning and may
not see VFR conditions return until the afternoon. Conditions
are also favorable for sea fog development which would impact
terminals along the coast, which could continue through the
afternoon and early evening hours as well. However, the sea fog
not expected to impact the TAF sites. We gradually clear by mid
to late morning from SW to NE as S`rly winds increase further
and fog mixes out, though we may still hold on to some MVFR/VFR
ceilings Sat afternoon into early Sat evening out ahead of the
incoming cold front.

Outlook: Sub-VFR conditions possible again Saturday night into
Sunday morning with showers associated with an approaching cold
front. High pressure builds back into the area early next week
bringing a much drier airmass and expect pred VFR conditions
with limited fog potential.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 2:45 PM Friday...

Key Messages...

 - Sea fog possible late tonight into Saturday

 - Sub-SCA conditions through Saturday morning

 - SCA winds/seas and periods of Gale force winds expected
   Saturday afternoon through early Monday with the passage of
   a strong cold front

Through tonight...5-15 kt SW winds and 2-3 ft seas. Conditions will
be favorable for sea fog development across all waters late tonight
with visibility down to 1/4 mi at times. Winds will remain light
through the morning, so fog may be slow to mix out and decreased
visibility could linger several hours after sunrise. Obs will be
monitored for the need of a Marine Dense Fog Advisory.

Saturday through Sunday...Two rounds of strong winds are expected as
a cold front impacts the area this weekend. The first round will
occur Saturday afternoon - early Sunday morning. SW winds will reach
SCA levels near the Gulf Stream Saturday afternoon, with the
remaining coastal waters and Pamlico Sound following suit Saturday
night. Gale force gusts are expected across the Gulf Stream waters
Saturday night with seas reaching 5-9 ft. There will then be a
slight reprieve in winds and seas on Sunday as winds veer towards
the W, but hazardous boating conditions will continue. The second
round of strong winds will be a northwesterly surge behind a potent
cold front, which will increase winds across all coastal waters and
sounds to Gale force and SCA along the rivers by Sunday night.
Boating conditions will improve to sub-SCA by Monday morning as high
pressure builds back in and winds/seas rapidly decrease.

Outlook: Sub-SCA conditions are expected until mid to late week when
another FROPA will bring increased winds and seas.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for 01/09 (Friday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        79/1937  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   73/1937  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      75/1930  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   70/2013  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         71/2013  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    77/1974  (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 01/10 (Saturday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        78/1974  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   70/2020  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      79/1937  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   73/1983  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         75/1974  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    80/1974  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Saturday to 4 PM EST Sunday
     for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Saturday to 6 PM EST Sunday for
     AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon Saturday to midnight EST
     Saturday night for AMZ152-154-156.
     Gale Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for
     AMZ152-154-156.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Saturday to 6 PM EST Sunday for
     AMZ158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF/OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...RCF/OJC
AVIATION...SK/RCF
MARINE...OJC