Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

576
FXUS62 KMHX 070049
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
849 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation disco Updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A return to more typical summertime pattern through much of
the forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
An upper ridge and Bermuda high pressure will be centered off
the coast through Saturday, becoming suppressed late in the
weekend as shortwave energy pushes across the mid- Atlantic.
More of a zonal pattern develops next week with a series of
shortwave troughs pushing across the area. Precip chances will
be near climo each day with widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms developing each afternoon, then dissipating with
loss of heating during the evening. The severe threat appears
minimal through the period with limited shear and forcing.

A gradual warming trend will continue through the period as well
with highs in the lower 90s inland through the weekend, then
warming in to the mid 90s next week. Temps generally in the mid
to upper 80s along the coast. The probabilities for Major Heat
Risk increase to around 60-80% Monday through Thursday of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AMD NOT SKED continues to be appended to the KEWN TAF due to an
ongoing FAA comms issue that is impacting dissemination of the
observation information. However, TAFs will continue to be
issued while the issue is troubleshooted. NKT is the closest
ASOS. EWN is able to be dialed into to receive METARs.

SHRA and TSRA have ended for tonight leading to VFR flight cats
across all terminals currently. A similar set up to last night
with mainly clear skies and light winds will bring a chance for
fog and stratus again in the early morning hours FRI. Guidance
shows low level stratus and fog developing in SW Duplin county
and spreading NEward into sunrise, almost directly along the
HWY17 corridor, best chances at ISO being impacted with the
remaining three TAF sites on the fringe of model consensus
footprints. OAJ has the next best chance of seeing impacts with
PGV and EWN slightly lower chances. ISO and PGV have prevailing
MVFR VIS and CIG lines with tempo IFR groups. OAJ has prevailing
MVFR VIS and tempo IFR, with EWN having a brief tempo group for
MVFR fog with SCT IFR deck.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are in play for all
terminals FRI afternoon, EWN and OAJ first then progressing
northwestward as the sea breeze pushes inland.

Outlook (Friday night through Monday): Primarily VFR conditions
and light winds are forecast into early next week as high
pressure builds into the area. Given ample low level moisture
there is a low end chance for patchy ground fog to develop each
morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Bermuda high will remains in control as it sits off the coast.
S to SW winds around 5-15 kt with seas around 2-4 ft continue to
prevail. As we move into tomorrow, somewhat stronger winds are
possible during the late afternoon and evening hours Friday
through the weekend as temps warm inland, bringing a tightening
of gradients between the thermal trough inland and the offshore
high. Gusts may approach SCA conditions across the Pamlico,
Croatan/Roanoke Sounds and coastal waters north of Cape Hatteras
at times.

Ongoing showers and thunderstorms over the inland rivers and
near the Gulf Stream are expected to dissipate late this
afternoon with quieter conditions into Friday night. Nearshore
coastal waters should have less convective coverage this
afternoon. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase Saturday
into early next week as a trough of low pressure rotates around
the Bermuda High and off the NC coast.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RTE/SK
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...RTE/SK