Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

374
FXUS62 KMHX 220954
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
554 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Marginal risk of strong to severe thunderstorms inland this
evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Marginal risk for strong to severe storms inland this
evening. Better coverage of showers and storms Tuesday afternoon
and evening with frontal passage. Dry again for Wed into Thu.
Next precip chance is Fri.

3) Becoming hot and humid again this week with highs in the
90s, and heat indices in the lower 100s each afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...High pres shifts offshore today while another
shortwave swings ewrd acrs the Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic
region. This will drag a cold front into the Southeast, but as
is typical this time of year, the front gets hung up or at least
slows down before reaching ENC. Isolated to widely scattered
showers and storms today, best chances along the coast this
morning then transitioning inland this afternoon with the
seabreeze. Breezier today as thermal gradient inc in addition
to the cold front moving into the Piedmont. Some models indicate
some weakening MCS activity arriving into interior ENC this
evening, but this activity running into dry air should limit
chances to no higher than 30-50% and mainly for our nwrn FA.
Best chance for a storm would be from around 8pm to 2am. Any
storms that enter our nwrn counties could be on the stronger
side as some renegade instability and shear of 20+ kt will be
found here, with strong wind gusts the main threat.

The aforementioned stalled front will then get kicked through
ENC as a backdoor cold front Tue evening as stronger shortwave
exits the Mid Atlantic coast. Have cont to fcst lower than NBM
pops, as convective coverage will be more sct in nature. Have
retained the likely pops from previous forecast to the nern
zones, where best convergence and forcing will be for more
widespread thundershowers. Svr threat still looks low as shear
is lacking. Further inland, the chances decrease to 30-40% with
lack of appreciable forcing and a bit more dry air in place.
Front will sweep offshore Tue evening, taking any precip with
it. Dry conditions return for Wed into Thu with high pres
dominating. Next chance of showers and storms on Friday as next
shortwave swings through the sern CONUS.

KEY MESSAGE 2...With the return swrly flow, hot and humid
conditions combine to produce uncomfortably warm heat indices,
though most likely remaining below heat adv thresholds, with
readings in the lower 100s each day early to late week. Brief
break from the heat expected on Wed behind the fropa, when
afternoon highs only in the low 80s OBX zones to upper 80s
inland with lowered RH`s as well. Heating back up Thu into Fri
as return swrly flow returns.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Patchy fog and stratus has developed across western portions of
the area early this morning, impacting all four terminals. VFR
expected to return shortly after 12z. SSW winds inc further this
afternoon as tight thermal gradient develops along with inland
trough ahead of cold front. Gusts upwards of 20 kt by afternoon.
May be a isolated shower or storm along the inland seabreeze
this afternoon. Best chances for showers and storms still look
like this evening, mainly at ISO and PGV.

Outlook (Tue through Fri): Front will sweep through Tue
afternoon and evening, with another shot for sct afternoon
showers and storms, esp along the eastern terminals. Winds turn
nrly to nerly behind the front Tue evening with any precip
threat ending. Mostly dry for Wed and Thu with high pres
rebuilding. Next precip chance on Fri with another system
approaching.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs show SW winds 5-15 kt with seas around 2 ft. High
pressure strengthens offshore along with inland trough combined
with approaching cold front, will lead to increasing winds
through the day. SSW winds will increase to 15-20 kt with
occasional gusts to 25 kt late this afternoon and evening,
peaking between 8pm and 3am. Still looks too marginal for SCA at
this time. Moderate to gusty SW winds 10-20 kt will continue
into Tue ahead of the approaching front with seas building to
3-5 ft.

Outlook (Tue through Fri): The front will move through the
waters Tue night with flow becoming N-NE 5-15 kt behind it.
Return swrly winds for Thu into Fri though looks to remain below
SCA conditions.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CQD/TL
AVIATION...CQD
MARINE...CQD