Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

762
FXUS62 KMHX 180616
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
116 AM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Inc max T`s rest of today and lowered TD`s resulting in lowered
RH`s by 5-10% with dry wsw mixing down the drier air from the
lingering dry atms in place.

Increased rain totals a bit Sunday, with most or all of ENC
receiving between 0.5-1.00" of rain. Highest totals are forecast
for the OBX zones.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A storm system will bring a cold rain to the area Sunday, and
there remains a chance that rain mixes with or changes to snow
at the end of precipitation for Coastal Plain zones. However,
with temps above freezing no accumulations or impacts are
expected.

2) Any remaining wet roads or bridges will freeze Sunday night
into the Monday morning commute, as temperatures fall through
the 20s late Sunday night.

3) Another Arctic blast expected early through mid next week
with lows and wind chills in the teens Monday through Wednesday
mornings. Wednesday morning coldest day of the week with lows
in the teens all areas away from the beaches with high pressure
overhead.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 2 PM Sat...

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Deep upper trough in the Deep South all the way to the GOM will
pivot eastward Sunday, with a weak surface low expected to form
along a surface boundary off the SE coast moving northeastward
late Sunday. Despite checking several boxes for wintry weather
across the Carolinas, especially a lack of cold air in place,
will keep precipitation from this system as a cold rain for most
of the day Sunday. Rain may mix with or change to snow before
ending acrs the Coastal Plain but surface temps will still be
above freezing and no accumulations or impacts are expected.

The much needed rain will start late tonight towards dawn
Sunday morning, then rapidly increase in coverage across ENC
through the day with deep isentropic ascent in place. Rainfall
amounts of 1/2"-1" are expected, which may only put a slight
dent in the severe drought now in place, but any wetting rain is
more than welcome at this point.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

There remains some potential for the development of black ice
overnight into the Mon AM commute time if heavier rainfall
totals are seen and leave wet roads and bridges, as temps will
crash hard into the 20s overnight. First ones to ice up will be
bridges and overpasses.

Key Message 3...

Another Arctic blast is expected behind the front, leading to
well below normal temps Monday through Wednesday. Low temps
will reach the low 20s, and when factoring in wind chills it
will feel like the teens each morning. We will be close to Cold
Weather Advisory criteria both Tuesday morning (wind chills),
and Wednesday morning (air temps). Wed morning is the coldest
with high pressure directly overhead with lows in the teens
areas away from the immediate coast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Pred VFR conditions are currently noted across ENC as of this
update and should continue over the next few hours. However,
conditions rapidly deteriorate near daybreak as rain begins to
overspread the area and expect a prolonged period of IFR
conditions on Sunday. While rain will likely persist through
most of the day could see a brief changeover to snow around
20-21Z for our terminals west of Hwy 17 but minimal impact is
expected even if this does occur.

As moisture increases behind a stalled frontal boundary and weak
low pressure system lifts NE`wards along this stalled front,
expect ceilings to quickly lower to MVFR levels (2-3 kft)
between about 10-12Z this morning. In addition to this, light
rain is expected to begin as early as 09z becoming steadier and
heavier as the morning progresses. As this occurs, also expect
ceilings to continue to lower to IFR/LIFR levels between 13-17Z.
Vis also likely drops to around 3-4 sm after sunrise Sun and
linger at those levels through 00z, although more localized
severe drops are possible in heavier rain. After 21z, colder
post-frontal air will catch up to deeper moisture and will
likely see a mix of rain and snow for terminals west of Highway
17 after 21z. This changeover will not last long, and given
expected rainfall prior and warm surface temps little to no
accum is forecast. Winds will be 5-10 kt out of the NW through
the afternoon. As we get into tonight, any leftover rain and
snow quickly push offshore between 0-3Z and skies quickly clear
behind the departing low and associated fronts. This however
then leads to the next forecast challenge which is potential
freezing fog overnight Sun. Winds ease and skies will be clear
while dry air works its way into ENC. However, given rainfall
amounts the low levels will likely be saturated so this would be
a prime setup for fog development around 6Z Mon to daybreak.
With temps below freezing can`t rule out the development of
freezing fog. Given inherent uncertainty in this threat have
elected to keep fog out of the forecast for now but if guidance
continues to hint at this threat, may need to add it into the
forecast in the coming forecast cycles.

Outlook: Outside of the freezing fog threat expect primarily VFR
conditions across ENC from late Sun night and beyond. While no
snow accumulations are expected, there`s concern for black ice
Sunday night/Monday morning. Some freezing fog may also be
possible Mon morning especially for OAJ and potentially EWN. Dry
high pressure returns Monday, bringing a return to VFR
conditions across all of ENC through mid week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 2 PM Sat...
Small craft conditions over the gulf waters from Oregon Inlet
to C Lookout through early evening thanks to strong and gusty W
to SW winds (25+ kts) ahead of a frontal system. Sub SCA winds
below 20 kt expected elsewhere as WAA inc over stable marine
layer.

Winds temporarily subside tonight as a cold front crosses the
region, but NW winds pick up again Sunday afternoon through
evening to 15-25 kts (30 kt Gulf waters), and a brief period of
Small Craft conditions will be possible esp coastal waters s of
Oregon Inlet.

Outlook: Arctic high pressure builds over the waters with
lighter winds of 10-20 kt expected through Wednesday with seas
2-4 ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TL
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...TL