Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

115
FXUS62 KMHX 091449
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
949 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Winds trending slightly higher for end of week system. Aviation
Disco updated.

Ended small craft advisory along the northern coastal waters
given latest obs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cool and dry conditions linger for the next couple of days
with frost concerns tonight.

2) Approaching storm system near the end of the week will bring
well below normal temperatures, breezy conditions, and a chance
of rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Latest surface analysis depicts a weak surface
trough transiting central and eastern NC this hour with
sprawling high pressure centered over the southern plains
extending in behind it. The trough will do little more than keep
up winds just enough to hamper more robust radiational cooling
tonight as well as keep any patchy fog risk at bay. Behind it
during daytime hours today, steady NW winds at around 10 mph
with higher gusts are likely.

As we`ve been mentioning for the past couple todays, tonight
looks like the best candidate for fairly widespread frost,
especially west of NC 17 as skies remain clear and winds inland
will likely be calm with the high cresting overhead. As is
typical in these environments deterministic guidance for lows
are usually not aggressive enough, so blended in NBM 10th
percentile to knock forecast lows into the mid 30s. Tuesday
night is trending slightly warmer with an uptick in cloud cover,
so probability of frost that night is shifting lower albeit not
impossible.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Guidance is coming into better agreement for
increasingly unsettled weather across the eastern CONUS as
complex mid-level low deepens over the region and steers
multiple shortwaves over the mid-Atlantic. Although specific
details remain murky, it is increasingly likely that coastal low
development will occur off the eastern coast as early as
Thursday although its intensity and track remain uncertain.
Probabilistic guidance favors a more northern track, which
would keep heavier precipitation away from our area. NBM and
deterministic ensembles show this well with overall
probabilities of seeing more than a couple tenths of an inch
under 20%.

Forecast winds have been trending upwards with this system, and
probabilities for a period of W to NW winds as high as 25-30 kt
with higher gusts have increased from the previous forecast. If
this is realized, at least some coastal flooding concerns could
arise along the Outer Banks. Given spread of guidance, it is too
early to state the potential magnitude of impacts. Stay tuned
for future updates.

Behind the system, unseasonably cool air will flood into the
area knocking highs down into the 50s for the weekend and offer
the first real opportunity for a freeze as 850mb temps fall
below 0 C.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 0630est...
High pressure remains firmly in control over area terminals
with SKC and light and VAR winds. Surface trough will transit
the region bringing a shift and uptick in winds out of the
northwest. Increased mixing brings stronger NW winds at around
10G15kt with gusts up to 20 kt at times, especially for near-
shore sites. Tonight, SKC and winds likely decoupling opens the
door for fog and frost potential if there`s enough moisture
left in the lower levels. Have VFR MIFG mention for OAJ and EWN
with guidance that is showing fog keeps it closer to the coast.

Outlook: An extended period of VFR conditions is expected with much
drier airmass and high pressure over the region through midweek.
Approaching storm system at the end of the week brings an increase
in rain chances, some gusty winds, and sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Made some slight tweaks to the small craft advisory thats
currently out along the coastal waters north of Ocracoke Inlet.
Winds and seas have begun to ease rather quickly across the area
and have fallen below criteria north of Oregon Inlet so we have
dropped the small craft here. The ongoing small craft advisory
between Oregon Inlet and Ocracoke, though it may be allowed to
drop by this afternoon depending on trends. Otherwise the rest
of the forecast remains on track.

Prev Disc...Latest observations this morning depict an increase
in southwesterly winds as a surface trough approaches waters
with winds up to 15-20 kt and an occasional gust to 25 kt. Seas
are 4-5 feet for now, but expect seas to build further through
the morning hours especially beyond 10 nm. SCA advisories remain
in effect north of Ocracoke Inlet until 7 PM LT. This surge
will quickly fall after sunset as high pressure crests overhead
with winds across all waters falling to around 5 kt or less.

Outlook: Decent boating conditions expected through Wednesday
with winds backing SW Tuesday ahead of another approaching
trough, peaking at 10-15 kt. Attention then turns to a coastal
low likely to develop off the mid-Atlantic coast as early as
Thursday. Although magnitude of impacts remains uncertain, trend
has been for stronger winds and the probability for Gales has
increased from the previous forecast, especially so for the
waters from Raleigh Bay north. Timing and low intensity remains
a point of uncertainty, so mariners are encouraged to continue
monitoring future forecasts.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ152-
     154.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MS/RJ
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...MS/RCF