Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

387
FXUS62 KMHX 062349
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
749 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation disco updated.

Previous Disco...Winds were increased across the waters
through Sunday, which prompted the issuance of Small Craft
Advisories starting this evening for all zones except the
Alligator River

Temperatures were decreased on Monday and Tuesday

A Climate section was added for potentially record breaking
temperatures tomorrow

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Hot and dry conditions expected through the weekend.

2) Increased Fire Danger risk across the area this weekend.

3) Low-end thunderstorm risk Sunday evening into Monday
afternoon

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A downsloping low-level flow beneath ridging
aloft will combine with notably warm low-level thicknesses to
support hot, above normal temperatures areawide through the
weekend. Despite periods of high clouds overspreading the area
today, highs should manage to reach the mid-90s inland, with
80s along the coast. Tomorrow will be slightly warmer (mid to
upper 90s inland, low to mid 80s beaches) with inland
temperatures flirting with records. See the Climate section for
more information. While it will be hot, mixing of a dry airmass
will keep dewpoints and humidity levels down, making it more of
a "dryish" heat.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The combination of hot temperatures, seasonally
low relative humidities, and ongoing drought conditions is
expected to support an increased fire danger across all of ENC
through the weekend. Of note, rainfall is running about 10-25
percent of normal over the past week across much of ENC. This,
combined with the hot and dry conditions, is leading to dry
fine fuels and less impact from live fuels. These conditions
are noteworthy for this time of year, and is the reason for
elevated fire concerns. In collaboration with the NCFS, an
Increased Fire Danger Statement is in effect for today, with a
continuation into Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...An upper level shortwave will traverse the
Great Lakes and New England over the next 48 hours. This will
push a cold front south through the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday,
reaching northeast NC by Sunday night/early Monday. The front
is then forecast to cross ENC during the day Monday. On Sunday,
the greatest chance of thunderstorms is expected to reside to
our north where forcing along the front will coincide with
reduced inhibition and moderate instability. Sunday is expected
to remain dry until the evening when chances for showers and
thunderstorms will increase to 15-30% across northern zones. It`s
expected that any convection to the north in Virginia will be
moving southeast into a stabilizing airmass across NE NC.
Despite increasing inhibition, some elevated/weak thunderstorms
may survive into the Albemarle Sound vicinity after sunset. On
Monday, the front is expected to be through most of ENC by the
time peak heating rolls around, and this is expected to keep the
convective risk more muted. If the front were to slow down at
all, then the chance of thunderstorms would likely increase.
However, for now the most likely scenario is that scattered,
weak thunderstorms will develop across the far southwestern
counties of ENC, with dry conditions elsewhere. Weak shear and
modest instability should keep the risk of severe thunderstorms
low on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR flight cats are forecast through the TAF period. Gusty winds
in place through the remainder of the evening easing overnight,
but light breeze and dry low levels precludes fog development
again tonight. SUN, almost a copy paste forecast with gusty
SWerly winds during peak heating, SCT upper level clouds and
maybe some FEW fairweather and non-impactful diurnal cu
developing. Will see an increase in lower level cloud coverage
from N to S as the front approaches, initially around FL070,
SUN night into MON morning.

Outlook: A cold front is forecast to move through ENC on Monday
with a northeasterly wind shift and the potential for 3-4k ft
CIGs. A TSRA risk may accompany this front as well, but mainly
for areas in the vicinity of KOAJ.

&&

.MARINE...
This weekend will feature a very typical summertime pattern
with elevated winds and seas during the peak thermal gradient
each afternoon and evening. Given that winds trended up today,
SCAs were issued for all zones except the Alligator River. This
evening, SW winds are expected to increase to 15-20 kt with
gusts to 25-30 kt. There will be a slight reprieve in the morning
before the thermal gradient increases gusts back up to 25-30 kt
tomorrow afternoon. These conditions are expected to last into
early Monday morning with seas building to 3-5 ft in response.

Outlook: A cold front will move through area waters on Monday
with a northeasterly wind shift. While a thunderstorm risk may
accompany this front, the risk looks low, and mainly confined to
the coastal and offshore waters south of Cape Lookout, as well
as inland waterways around the Crystal Coast (New River, Bogue
Sound, White Oak River, etc.). A typical summertime pattern
returns by the middle of next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for 06/07 (Sunday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern      98/2008  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 90/1988  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville    100/2008  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 94/2008  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston       99/1914, 2008  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville  99/2001  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196-
     204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ136-137.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154-156.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for AMZ158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ230-231.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RM/OJC
AVIATION...CEB/OJC
MARINE...RM/OJC