Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

929
FXUS62 KMHX 150759
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
259 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Cold and dry today behind a cold front.

Gale Warnings issued for the coastal waters south of Oregon
Inlet for strong SW winds early this morning and strong NW
winds which will develop this evening through most of tonight.

Increasing chances (but still low confidence) for wintry
mix/snow Sunday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Arctic air returns to ENC and wind chills drop to 10-15
   degrees early tomorrow morning behind a strong cold front.
   A Cold Weather Advisory may be needed.

2) Increasing chances (but still low confidence) for wintry
   mix/snow Sunday.

3) MARINE: Gale conditions to develop across the coastal waters
   south of Oregon Inlet this evening through tonight, while
   strong Small Craft conditions develop elsewhere.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A strong cold front will move through ENC later this morning
with an Arctic airmass building in behind it today. Temperatures
will fall into the 30s by daybreak and will struggle to warm
much past the low 40s this afternoon. Increasing NW winds will
make it feel like the 20s to low 30s for most of the day.
Tonight, CAA continues with temps falling into the upper teens
to low 20s overnight, and wind chills will range from 10-15
degrees after midnight through about 8-9 am Friday. A Cold
Weather Advisory may need to be issued later today, but
confidence wasn`t high enough at this juncture to issue.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A potentially favorable upper air pattern for winter weather
will develop this weekend with a very deep and cold upper level
trough reaching down to the GOA. As this trough pivots eastward
Saturday into Sunday, a surface low is expected to form along a
surface boundary off the SE coast, and deepen as it moves
offshore Sunday. Exactly how far south (of ENC) this front
reaches, where the low forms along the front, and how strong the
low becomes are the main questions at this time frame. If the
low forms too close to the coast not enough cold air will be in
place for any wintry precip except for across the northern
coastal plain, while a solution farther offshore would allow for
sufficient cold air to change rain to snow across much of ENC.

The current forecast favors a colder solution, somewhat similar
to the GFS and GEFS, but is well away from the even colder ECMWF
and EPS solutions. Other deterministic guidance remains much
warmer. Also, precip amounts show a wide range of solutions from
as little as 0.1"-0.2", to nearly an inch. We will continue to
closely monitor the trends for this system.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecast continues to trend more optimistic overall, and now
expecting VFR ceilings/visibility through the entire period as a
cold front tracks across the region this morning and high
pressure builds in behind the departing front tonight. While we
generally expect VFR ceilings and vis, could see a brief period
of MVFR ceilings generally between 07-13Z this morning with the
greatest risk of seeing sub-VFR conditions along the OBX this
morning. TAF terminals could also potentially go down for 2-3
hours before quickly returning to VFR conditions. Given low
probability (<20%) have just left a SCT deck at 2.5 kft at all
TAF terminals between 07-13Z. Once the front pushes offshore,
expect clear skies across the region into Fri morning. Behind
the front, breezy northwesterly winds will kick in with gusts
to 20-25 kt possible especially across the coastal plain mid
morning Thurs through Thurs evening before winds gradually begin
to ease.

Outlook: High pressure returns for Friday into Sat resulting in
VFR conditions Fri and Sat. No changes to Sun as we continue to
monitor for potential low pressure development and sub-VFR
flight categories Sun, with a return to VFR conditions likely
on Mon.

&&

.MARINE...

Gale conditions have developed under SW winds across the warmer
nearshore waters south of Oregon Inlet this morning, and are
expected to continue until the cold front crosses through the
area. Thereafter, a brief lull is anticipated when winds will
dip down to 20-25 kts, until winds restrengthen out of the NW
this evening to 25-30 kts, with gusts to 35 kts.

Marginal Small craft conditions will continue across most of the
other marine areas this morning ahead of the cold front.
Stronger winds behind the front this evening through tonight
will bring Small Craft conditions to all the remaining waters,
and there could be some Gale Force gusts across the Pamlico
Sound and nearshore waters north of Oregon Inlet.

Seas will be 5-7 ft through tonight, and then subside to below 6
ft by mid tomorrow morning.

Outlook: After a brief improvement Friday, Small Craft
conditions will likely redevelop Saturday ahead of a cold
front, and then again late Sunday behind the front.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 7 AM EST
     Friday for AMZ131-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for AMZ135-150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 4 AM EST Friday
     for AMZ136-137.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ152-
     154-156-158.
     Gale Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 3 AM EST Friday for
     AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SGK
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...SGK