Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

812
FXUS62 KMHX 171400
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
900 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Update Marine headlines to cancel SCA for srn waters south of C
Lookout, as winds should remain below 25 kt over the cooler
shelf waters today/tonight. Lowered winds on the Pamlico Sound
with WAA stable flow.

Moderate potential for rain to briefly mix with or changeover
to snow Sunday evening, but confidence is high that there will
be no accumulations or impacts.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A storm system will bring a cold rain to the area Sunday, and
there remains a moderate chance that rain mixes with or changes
to snow at the end of precipitation. However, with temps above
freezing no accumulations or impacts are expected.

2) Another Arctic blast expected early through mid next week
with lows and wind chills in the teens Monday through Wednesday
mornings.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A very deep and cold upper level trough down to the GOA will
pivot eastward Sunday, with a surface low expected to form
along a surface boundary off the SE coast, and deepen as it
moves offshore Sunday. Despite checking several boxes for
wintry weather across the Carolinas, a lack of cold air in place
(highs will be in the 60s today), will keep precipitation from
this system as a cold rain for most of the day Sunday. There
remains a moderate potential for rain to mix with or change to
snow briefly before precip ends across the coastal plain, and
points east along US 64 towards the NOBX, but surface temps will
still be above freezing and no accumulations or impacts are
expected.

The much needed rain will start early Sunday morning, then
rapidly increase in coverage across ENC through the day with
deep isentropic ascent in place. Rainfall amounts of 1/2"-3/4"
are expected, which may only put a slight dent in the severe
drought now in place.

There remains some potential for the development of black ice
overnight into the Mon AM commute time if heavier rainfall
totals are seen, as temps will crash hard into the 20s
overnight.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Another Arctic blast is expected behind the front, leading to
well below normal conditions Monday through Wednesday. Low temps
will reach the upper teens to low 20s, and when factoring in
wind chills it will feel like the teens each morning. We will be
close to Cold Weather Advisory criteria both Tuesday morning
(wind chills), and Wednesday morning (air temps).

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Given the latest trends in guidance and observations, expecting
VFR conditions to persist across the TAF terminals and ENC as a
whole for much of the next 18-24 hours. Coastal trough
currently located offshore continues to produce scattered
showers. But, all of this activity is forecast to remain
offshore so any potential MVFR threat associated with this
activity for the OBX is minimal at best. By this afternoon and
evening, high and mid clouds will be on the increase behind a
cold front that will stall just off the coast tonight allowing
for coastal low development late tonight. Clouds continue to
lower throughout the overnight hours and potentially reach MVFR
levels (2-3kft) as early as 9-12Z Sun morning across all
terminals. Further reductions to IFR ceilings look likely by
mid morning Sun as well.

SW`rly winds at 5-10 kts with gusts up to 15 kts are forecast
this morning. Winds then increase to 10-15 kts with gusts up
around 15-20 kts Sat afternoon before becoming light and
variable once again tonight.

Outlook: A weak low pressure system and cold front couple to
produce rain Sunday into Sunday evening, with the potential for
some snowflakes to mix in briefly Sunday evening, especially
for ISO/PGV. Sub-VFR conditions will be likely with this
system, but confidence is increasing that snow will not result
in any impacts. Dry high pressure returns Monday, bringing a
return to VFR conditions across all of ENC through mid week.

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft conditions over the gulf waters from Oregon Inlet
to C Lookout through this evening thanks to strong and gusty W
to SW winds (25+ kts) ahead of a frontal system. Sub SCA winds
below 20 kt expected eleswhere as WAA inc over stable marine
layer.

Winds temporarily subside tonight as a cold front crosses the
region, but NW winds pick up again Sunday afternoon to 15-25
kts, and a brief period of Small Craft conditions will be
possible overnight.

Outlook: Arctic high pressure builds over the waters with
lighter winds of 10-20 kt expected through Wednesday with seas
2-4 ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EST this evening for AMZ152-
     154-156.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SGK
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...TL/SGK