Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

299
FXUS62 KMHX 031857
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
157 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Marine Dense Fog Advisory extended along the northern Outer
Banks through this evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Sea fog will continue to impact northern Outer Banks and
adjacent waters through tonight.

2) Well above normal to near record conditions expected
Wednesday through early next week high pressure ridging
offshore.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Zonal flow remains in place over eastern NC,
forecast to eventually give way to strong ridging over the
eastern CONUS later this week. At the surface, persistent wedge
of high pressure continues to linger over much of the mid-
Atlantic and Carolinas, but low level clouds have begun to erode
and consequently temperatures have rebounded inland.

Main focus this afternoon and tonight will be sea fog,
especially over the cooler waters along the Northern Outer
Banks where warmer airmass will continue to linger. Regional
webcams show low visibilities are persisting primarily over
offshore waters this afternoon while land-based areas are
clearing out, but expecting a return of lower visibilities after
sunset as winds weaken once again, bleeding into the Albemarle
Peninsula. Model guidance has handled current visibility trends
rather poorly so overall confidence is lower than average.

Farther inland, with calm winds and saturated low- levels more
widespread fog is forecast to develop overnight and linger
through the morning commute Wed.

KEY MESSAGE 2...An anomalously strong ridge will set up over
the southeast US tomorrow and remain in place into early next
week. This will bring near record temperatures possible for some
inland zones some afternoons, especially Thursday through this
weekend (see Climate Section below). Highs will reach the upper
70s/low 80s generally along and west of US 17, and upper 60s/low
70s closer to the coast. The immediate coast will remain cooler
due to very cold ocean/sound temperatures. A few isolated
showers may develop at times in the sea breeze circulation, but
overall expect strong subsidence and mostly dry conditions to
persist until at least late this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Starting to see some scattering out of earlier low stratus but
still showing sub-VFR conditions at most terminal sites outside
of OAJ this afternoon. Conditions are expected to gradually
improve this afternoon from south to north. Light and variable
winds continue this afternoon and continue to veer through the
night before settling on a more southwesterly direction on
Wednesday.

Guidance is increasing in confidence regarding fog overnight
tonight with KOAJ and KEWN the most at risk for IFR conditions
and below, but KISO and KPGV will also be at risk for at least
MVFR conditions.

Wednesday through Saturday: Improving aviation conditions are
expected by the middle of next week. As we get into late week,
moist southerly flow moves into the region as high sits
offshore. If radiational cooling conditions occur during the
night with to clear skies and calm winds, there is the potential
for fog.

&&

.MARINE...
Main concern this afternoon remains sea fog which webcams show
lingering over the offshore waters primarily north of Oregon
Inlet. Visibilities will likely oscillate between poor and fair
through the afternoon, but with light winds think poor will be
more predominant and likely under a mile at times. For that
reason, the DFA has been extended for northern waters until 00z
tonight. Further expansion may be needed tonight as winds weaken
but moist airmass remains and Td depressions remain near zero.
DFAs may need to be extended back over soundside waters after
sunset.

Weakening northerly winds this afternoon will trend light and
variable early this evening before light southerly flow
eventually develops tonight. Light S/SW flow 5-10 kts will
increase to around 10-15 kt tomorrow afternoon with increasing
thermal gradient. Despite the light winds, small craft seas
will linger over much of the coastal waters north of Ocracoke
through tomorrow, ranging from 4-6 ft.

Outlook: Pleasant boating conditions are expected for the rest
of the week and into this weekend. Winds generally be 10-20 kts
out of the S/SW as high pressure remains offshore.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for 03/05 (Thursday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern      84/2015  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 74/1976  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville    86/1923  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 76/2023  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston       87/1976  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville  83/1985  (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 03/06 (Friday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern      85/1961  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 76/1992  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville    84/1961  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 74/1992  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston       85/1976  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville  82/1961  (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 03/07 (Saturday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern      89/1974  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 74/2022  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville    84/1961  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 74/1991  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston       86/1908  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville  85/1974  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for AMZ152-154.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SGK/MS
AVIATION...RTE/RJ
MARINE...SGK/MS