Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

183
FXUS62 KMHX 212300
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
700 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Lowered pops and the chance of thunder for tonight. Model
guidance much too high on nocturnal pops, with diurnal activity
waning with loss of heating, and no real `trigger`mechanisms
for remainder of the night, esp for thunder potential. Kept chc
showers in the fcst, esp coastal areas and northern tier, with
coastal areas seeing the showers after midnight, but limited
any thunder mention to 20% or less through Fri AM.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Weak surface low to bring an increased risk of moderate to
heavy rain and breezy conditions to northeastern ENC counties
today.

2) Stalled front to lead to increasingly unsettled weather into
this weekend.

3) Typical summertime pattern develops by next week with a
daily thunderstorm risk and warming temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A well-defined, but compact, surface low is
currently moving through the western Pamlico Sound vicinity. An
area of moderate to heavy rain is accompanying this low, along
with an increase in southerly winds along and just to the east
of it. Southerly low-level steering flow will take this low
north towards the Albemarle Sound vicinity by 5-8pm this
evening. Along the track of the low, there will be a continued
risk of moderate to heavy rain, a few lightning strikes, and
breezy southerly winds. Given the trends with this low, I`ve
increased the chance of rain along its track, and also bumped
winds up. Based on obs from this morning, some areas just west
of the track of the low could pick up a quick 0.25"-0.50" of
rain.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A slow-moving frontal boundary is forecast to
reach ENC sometime this evening or tonight. Of note, some
guidance have trended even slower, suggesting the front may just
barely get into ENC late tonight. Regardless, there is good
model agreement regarding the front stalling over ENC through at
least Saturday morning. A deep layer of moisture pooling along
this front plus modest instability and increased low-level
convergence should support scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms off and on both day and night.

Deep layer shear beneath ridging aloft points towards a reduced
risk of thunderstorm organization. At large, this should also
lead to a reduced risk of severe thunderstorms. The one
exception is during peak heating each day as steepening low-
level lapse rates in a high PWAT airmass may support some water-
loaded downdrafts capable of 40- 50 mph wind gusts and minor
tree damage. This may especially be the case right along
wherever the front sets up each day, as the area along the front
will have the strongest convergence and "best" shear.

PWATs increasing to 1.75"-2.00" within a weakly-steered
environment should support periods of heavy rain. The recent
stretch of dry weather and ongoing drought should help to offset
any hydro concerns. However, if heavy rain trains over any one
area, especially urban areas, then a flooding risk could
materialize.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Once this weekend`s front lifts north, ENC will
get back into a typical late-spring/early summer pattern
characterized by moderate instability and weak to moderate deep
layer shear. Convective initiation should primarily be
seabreeze-driven. Given the expected shear/instability combo,
there should be a daily risk of marginally severe thunderstorms,
especially from Monday onwards. This potential is also
supported by both machine learning and analog guidance.

Near-climo temperatures are expected during this time, with
highs in the mid to upper 80s inland, and low to mid 80s along
the coast. It should be noted that while the forecast will
reflect an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms on
Memorial Day, an all-day washout is not expected. It will be
more unsettled than what we have seen the past few weeks,
though.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A slow-moving cold front will settle south into ENC, esp around
the Albemarle Sound region, ewrd towards northern Pitt and
Martin counties. Will not have a mention of thunder in the fcst
tonight, as activity is mainly diurnally driven, but may cont to
see some sct showers, esp around KPGV. Cigs may drop to IFR esp
for PGV invof of the front, but remaining sites should remain in
the MVFR to VFR range as will be warm sectored. CIGs should
rise some during the day Friday, but guidance may be too quick
to improve conditions, especially with the front expected to
stall over ENC. Along and north of wherever the front stalls is
where the greatest risk of IFR, or lower, conditions is
expected.

Outlook (Saturday through Tuesday): A stalled frontal boundary
will support a continued risk of ocnl sub-VFR conditions and
on and off shra with some thunder, esp during the afternoon to
early evening time frames with the sea breeze active each day
with warm, moist airmass in place. Winds will be light,
generally in the 5-15 kt range.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak area of low pressure will move through the Albemarle
Sound vicinity over the next few hours with an increased risk of
thunderstorms, and gusty south winds up to 20kt. In the wake of
this low, typical summerlike conditions will prevail, with
breezy thermal gradient winds, and seas of 3-5ft.

A cold front is forecast to slide slowly south into ENC
tonight, with north or northeast winds developing behind it.
Guidance suggests the front will stall around the central
waters, with the northerly winds being focused primarily across
the northern rivers/sounds/coastal waters. A weaker gradient
along the front should keep the risk of 25kt winds lower for
those waters. Along the front there will be a continued risk of
thunderstorms.

Outlook: A cold front will remain stalled across the area
through Saturday morning. The front will then shift north as a
warm front Saturday afternoon, leaving behind a more typical
summerlike pattern.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RM/TL
AVIATION...TL
MARINE...RM