Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

230
FXUS62 KMHX 091028
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
628 AM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation section updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Gradual warming through the rest of the week, peaking on
Thursday and Friday.

2) More unsettled pattern expected Friday through the weekend as
front stalls near the area.

3) Back to a more typical summertime pattern next week with high
draped over the southeast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...As the high moves offshore, southerly to
southwesterly flow will resume across the Carolinas bringing a
gradual return of temps into the 90s as well as a jump in
humidity with Tds gradually working back into the 70s. Mid-
level subsidence aloft will keep precipitation chances very
subdued through today despite the uptick in instability,
although cannot completely rule out an isolated shower or two
along typical sound and sea breeze convergence zones. Shortwave
approaches from the central plains on Thursday, weakening the
ridge and aiding in a slightly more favorable environment for
isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Friday the high continues to shift offshore and
a front sweeps south through the Mid-Atlantic region. Ahead of
this front, continuous warm, moist advection in southerly flow
will help build PWATs to near 2". This will bring scattered to
numerous sea breeze showers/tstorms back in the forecast.
Meanwhile, despite the high shifting offshore, some residual
ridging should slow down the progression of the front as it
moves south. Where the front ends up stalling remains a point of
uncertainty in the forecast. However it is worth noting that
more models are suggesting a front draped across eastern NC
compared to 24 hours ago. Regardless, being 3 days out there is
still too much uncertainty to buy into any one outcome.
Wherever the boundary sets up, along it training showers/thunderstorms
are possible, and a narrow swath of deep layer shear right
along the front would bring both a low end hydro and severe
threat. The extent of the hydro and severe threat are dependent
on the frontal location and will continue to be monitored. As of
this afternoon, hydrologic concerns remain the primary hazard
but a low-end severe risk remains in the cards.

The front lifts back north Saturday into Sunday as a shortwave
moves through the region. This shortwave will bring slightly
better chances for showers and thunderstorms this weekend.
Shear doesn`t look to be impressive, but ample moisture will
promote a marginal hydro threat. There is some uncertainty with
how much instability is in play Saturday, as it is dependent on
cloud cover and associated surface heating. In a low-end CAPE
outcome, (500-1000J/kg) we would have long skinny CAPEs that
suggest just a hydro threat and less frequent lightning.
Meanwhile a high- end CAPE outcome (2000-4000 J/kg) would bring
more pulse- like thunderstorms capable of producing some gusty
winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall rates. Regardless
of how Saturday plays out, there is higher confidence on a low-
CAPE outcome Sunday. While heavy showers and some thunderstorms
are possible Sunday with the shortwave, the severe threat
appears to be more muted.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A more typical summertime pattern will settle in
again early next week as a large high sits over the southeast.
Based on current model outputs, we have enough moisture and
instability present for some afternoon/evening sea breeze
convection early next week, but there are no larger scale
synoptic features of note that would promote any additional
forcing.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are observed early this morning, with potential
for some patchy ground fog persist until 12Z. Even if fog does
develop it is not expected to impact operations. Later today,
winds veer south to southwest as high moves further offshore.
While unlikely, cannot completely rule out an isolated shower or
storm along area sea and sound breezes.

NOTE: AMD NOT SKED has been appended to the EWN TAFs as the
site is not transmitting through normal channels. The site is
still reporting via telephone so it will be monitored, but not
as frequently as when it is completely operational. The next
closest ASOS is at Cherry Point (KNKT).

Outlook (Thursday through Sunday): Primarily VFR conditions are
expected to continue into Thursday but with an uptick in shower
and thunderstorm coverage. A front is expected to approach the
region Friday and Saturday bringing a chance of showers and
thunderstorms with periods of sub-VFR conditions possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Benign marine conditions early this morning with winds variable
at 5-10 knots and seas 2-3 feet with periods of 8-11 seconds.
Conditions will remain pleasant the remainder of today,
eventually veering south to southwesterly today through
Thursday.

Outlook (Thu through Sun): SW winds expected to be around 10-20
kt Thu with seas building 2-4 ft as a front approaches the
area. Winds have trended up slightly ahead of the front Thursday
afternoon into evening, and there is a slightly increasing
chance (30%) of SCA conditions across northern waters.

A coastal trough may also set up Thursday night into Friday,
bringing increased tstorm chances along the Gulf Stream. The
front is forecast to stall to our north, but with the proximity
of the front and additional shortwaves moving through this
weekend, we are expecting a more unsettled pattern Friday-
Sunday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RJ
AVIATION...RJ
MARINE...RJ