Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

654
FXUS62 KMHX 222300
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
700 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 1900 EDT...Have lowered pops again for tonight through
Sat, as ENC will be warm sectored and little in way of forcing
for precip is evident. Latest guidance has trended even lower
than advertised NBM pops, with most places remaining rain free
for a bulk of the day Sat.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Stalled front to lead to unsettled weather into this
weekend.

2) Typical summertime pattern develops by next week with a
daily thunderstorm risk and warming temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...CAD has set up across the Carolinas today
resulting in a rather difficult temperature forecast overall.
Warmest temps have set up across our southern zones with temps
in the mid 70s noted, while mid 60s low 70s are noted along our
northern zones. In addition to this, the CAD setup has helped
keep a stalled front centered along the Crystal Coast up to the
OBX this afternoon with ongoing rain and weak thunderstorm
activity noted along this boundary. Instability has failed to
build across ENC today outside of the immediate coast as
cloudcover from the ongoing CAD has limited breaks in the
clouds. As a result no longer expecting strong thunderstorms
today, though any ongoing activity could bring heavy rainfall
and a few rumbles of thunder to the region this afternoon.

As we get into tonight, things have trended drier and wouldn`t
be surprised if much of the area remained precip free for a few
hours after midnight. With CAD locked into place for now low
stratus looks to be the primary weather across the area, though
can`t rule out some patchy fog where rain has fallen today
across ENC.

As we get into Saturday, forecast calls for the aforementioned
front to begin to lift N`wards as a warm front with a wave of
low pressure developing to the west and lifting NE`wards. Once
again, the challenge will be how long does CAD hang on tomorrow
as this will have an impact on how warm we get and if we will
see stronger thunderstorm activity develop Sat afternoon. For
now have the inland areas reaching the low 80s with the NOBX
only reaching the mid 70s on Sat for high temps. This may be too
warm depending on how things pan out. We will once again see a
chance for showers and thunderstorms in the morning along the
lifting warm front, with a second round of showers and storms
possible along the seabreeze Sat afternoon as well. Once again
much like today instability will be somewhat limited with MLCAPE
values around 500-1000J/kg noted. With a lack of wind shear
across ENC, once again expecting disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity through the day with lightning, heavy
rain, and a few stronger wind gusts (40-50 mph) being the main
concern.

KEY MESSAGE 2... No significant changes to forecast thinking from
Sunday onwards as once this weekend`s front lifts north, ENC will
get back into a typical late-spring/early summer pattern
characterized by moderate instability and weak to moderate deep
layer shear. Convective initiation should primarily be seabreeze-
driven. Given the expected shear/instability combo, there should be
a daily risk of marginally severe thunderstorms, especially from
Monday onwards. This potential is also supported by both machine
learning and analog guidance.

Near-climo temperatures are expected during this time, with highs in
the mid to upper 80s inland, and low to mid 80s along the coast. It
should be noted that while the forecast will reflect an increased
chance of showers and thunderstorms on Memorial Day, an all-day
washout is not expected. It will be more unsettled than what we have
seen the past few weeks, though.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A mix of low stratus (IFR/LIFR) and patchy fog (MVFR) is
in the fcst tonight into Sat AM especially across areas that
saw rain today as winds remain light and low level moisture
plentiful. Given the thick layer of clouds currently out across
ENC, expect MVFR ceilings will lower to IFR levels between
02-04Z tonight. Clouds are slow to lift Sat morning but will
lift once the stalled boundary along the Crystal Coast lifts
north as a warm front later Sat morning into Sat afternoon. This
is forecast to bring a mix of MVFR/VFR conditions to ENC by Sat
afternoon. Litte in the way of precip expected later this
evening and into the day Sat, and have left out any mention of
shra from the fcst, as the chc is 30% or less. Chances for
thunder are even lower.

Outlook (Sunday night through Wednesday): Chances for sub- VFR
conditions and shra with ocnl thunder will persist each day
into midweek next week as an active sea breeze will persist each
day under a warm, moist airmass. Winds will be light, generally
in the 5-15 kt range.

&&

.MARINE...
Showers and thunderstorms continue across our coastal waters
along a stalled boundary bringing a low end threat for locally
enhanced winds and seas as well as a low end waterspout threat.
The aforementioned front is currently bisecting the OBX
resulting in 5-10 kt S-SW`rly winds to the south and east of
this front with N`rly winds at 5-10 kts noted to the north of
this front. These winds are forecast to change little through
tonight and as a result the ongoing 3-5 ft seas across our
coastal waters will persist through tonight as well. As we get
into Saturday this stalled front will lift north as a warm front
bringing a renewed threat for showers and thunderstorms to the
area. In addition to this, winds across all our waters are
forecast to veer and become S`rly at 5-15 kts with a few gusts
up near 20 kts at times. Seas will remain at 3-5 ft into Sat
evening.

Outlook: A more summer like pattern resumes across our waters as
the area remains under the influence of the Bermuda high. This
will bring 5-15 kt S`rly winds and 3-5 ft seas to our waters as
well as a daily chance for showers and thunderstorms to the
waters into mid-week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TL/RCF
AVIATION...TL
MARINE...RCF