Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

519
FXUS62 KMHX 222329
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
629 PM EST Mon Dec 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure shifts offshore tonight. A cold front will then
cross through the area late Tuesday. High pressure then rebuilds
offshore Christmas day and will remain in place through late
week. Another frontal system will move through the region this
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Mon...With high pressure right overhead this
evening, clear skies, and nearly calm winds, good radiational
cooling conditions are expected to develop with temps quickly
cooling into the 30s. As high pressure shifts offshore overnight
ahead of a cold front increasing high clouds from this system
will help curb cooling, and keep temps mostly in the 30s
overnight with a levening off or rising temps towards sunrise.
The typical sheltered locations in the vicinity of the Croatan,
Hoffman, and Holly shelter along with Pungo Lakes region will
drop to around freezing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
As of 3 PM Mon...Scattered areas of light rain will move into
northern NC Tuesday morning as a cold front slides south into
the Carolinas. Limited moisture with this front will result in
only very light or trace amounts of rain, with coverage looking
to be fairly scattered with only a 20-40% chance, highest
north of the Hwy 264 corridor. SW to W winds will rapidly
develop Tuesday morning and gust to around 20-25 mph, advecting
in warmer temperatures, and resulting in highs in the upper 50s
to low 60s despite the widespread cloudiness.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 PM Mon...

Key Messages...

- Mostly dry conditions expected into this weekend with only
  some minor chances for light rain this weekend.

- Above normal conditions expected, with highs in the 65-70
  Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.

Behind a weak cold front Tuesday night a stronger surface high
will develop across the Gulf Coast Christmas Eve through this
weekend, which will push highs up well into the 60s, and
possibly into the 70s as ENC will be under wswrly flow. The
next chance of rain looks to hold off until this weekend, but a
soaking/wetting rain remain unlikely as flow will be generally
zonal through the period with the GOM cut off.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 6:15 PM Monday...VFR conditions will persist through the
overnight hours with light to calm winds and scattered high
clouds. Tomorrow, a cold front will approach the area and may
produce some light rain or sprinkles across northern portions of
the CWA during the afternoon hours. Confidence was not high
enough to include a mention of precip in the TAFs, but PGV and
EWN would be the TAF sites most likely to see rain (15-20%
chance). BKN clouds at 3500 to 4500 ft will move in late
morning then diminish to a few mid-level clouds by the evening.
Southwest winds will be around 10 kt with gusts to 15-20 kt
during the afternoon, and there is a possibility of 35 kt of
low-level wind shear at 20,000 ft for PGV and EWN (mainly
between 15-17z).

Outlook: Generally quiet Tuesday night through the end of the
week with VFR conditions expected.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 3 PM Mon...

Key Messages...

- Gales over the Gulf Stream waters Tuesday afternoon and
  evening, with small craft conditions for Pamlico sound and the
  northern coastal waters.

Tonight...Winds will continue to weaken through tonight as high
pres approaches. Seas currently in the 6+ ft range south of
Oregon Inlet will also subside through late this afternoon into
early evening.

Tuesday...Cold front drops into ENC through the day, and wrly to
swrly wind gradient inc rapidly in the afternoon. Gale
conditions are likely now for the warm Gulf Stream waters south
of Oregon Inlet, with gusts of 35-40 kt developing. For Pamlico
sound, model soundings indicate a stout but shallow marine
inversion in place, though marginal SCA conditions appear
likely, esp for sern portions of the sound towards Ocracoke and
srn Hatteras Island where sound temperatures are a bit warmer.
SCAs in effect for Pamlico sound and the northern waters north
of Oregon Inlet. Seas will rebuild rapidly Tue afternoon south
of C Hatteras into the 6-7 ft range, with choppy periodicity of
8 seconds or so

Wednesday through Friday...Improving conditions expected
Christmas Eve, with decent boating conditions persisting through
Christmas Day. Increasing swrly flow Thu night into early Fri
may bring SCA to the ctrl/srn outer waters.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to midnight EST Tuesday
     night for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Tuesday to midnight EST Tuesday
     night for AMZ150.
     Gale Warning from 1 PM Tuesday to midnight EST Tuesday night
     for AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...DAG/OJC
MARINE...TL