Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

551
FXUS62 KMHX 020021
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
821 PM EDT Fri May 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Update to T/Tds and subsequent grids. Aviation disco updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rain arrives this weekend as a coastal low develops off of the
southeast coast on Saturday and drags a frontal system through the
area Saturday night.

3) Cold front moves through the middle to late next week

Marine: Small Craft Advisories in effect Saturday into Sunday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A weak mid level shortwave is lifting north
across the area which has produces isolated to widely scattered
light showers. Models are handling this poorly, so have done a
blanket 20% PoP for much of the CWA to cover this. QPF amounts
will be minimal this afternoon and early evening.

Guidance remains in good agreement with a low pressure system
passing just off the coast Saturday bringing much needed
rainfall to the region. Upper level low sitting over eastern
Canada this weekend will act to deepen an incoming positively
tilted trough as it moves across the Mid-Atlantic Sat into Sun.
Associated mid level shortwave strengthens as it nears and
pushes off the coast this weekend as it rounds the base of this
deepening trough. At the same time, a progressive southern
stream jet stream will bring a second, slightly weaker shortwave
across the Deep South and Southeast eventually merging with the
northern stream shortwave. At the surface this will kick off
cyclogenesis off the Southeast coast on Sat along a stalled
frontal boundary located to the south of NC. As the two
aforementioned shortwaves merge this low will begin to deepen as
it tracks NE`wards offshore of the OBX Sat afternoon and
evening bringing widespread rainfall to ENC with highest
rainfall amounts currently forecast along the coast, decreasing
inland.

Probabilities for at least an inch of rainfall along the coast are
still high, and have decreased substantially inland across the
board. While NBM probs for precip greater than one inch inland
are still around 70%, the deterministic NBM has finally keyed
into the lesser totals suggested by hi-res guidance and some
long range guidance inland the past couple days. Deterministic
NBM has closer to half an inch of precip inland, so elected to
stick with this outcome for the forecast. Chances for precip >
1" along the coast S of Oregon Inlet along OBX are now greater
than 70%, and this area will likely be the focus for highest
precip totals.

As far as convection is concerned, currently most of the
instability remains offshore with northerly flow keeping
profiles more stable over land. This should keep rainfall rates
low enough to preclude any flash flooding threat, especially
when paired with the drought conditions in place. While there is
still some uncertainty with how strong the low will get as it
passes by the OBX on Sat, current thinking is the low remains
above 1000 mb as it passes by the area before deepening further
and at a much quicker pace to the north and east of the area.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The next timeframe we are monitoring will be
mid to late week next week. A cold front moves across the
Eastern Seaboard, with an upper level trough digging towards the
Mid-Atlantic and SE. There remains a fair amount of uncertainty
with the timing, as ECMWF has the frontal passage coming
through Thu morning into the afternoon, and the GFS has the
frontal passage Wed night/Thu morning and the Canadian has the
front moving through Thursday night. Ensemble probs for PWATs
greater than 1.5" ahead of this front remain around 30-50%. If
the model consensus shifts to the afternoon Thursday, and the
upper level support remains just as impressive, instability
would be maximized and we would have to start thinking about
severe potential. Machine learning severe probs are highest in
the Mid-Atlantic and SE US Thursday. At this point there is
enough uncertainty to just take a wait and see approach.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Pred VFR conditions expected through this evening, though some
pesky clouds ~FL025-030 may allow some bounces in and out of
MVFR flight cat. Later tonight, flight conditions deteriorate
as low pressure takes shape offshore. MVFR likely to develop
after midnight, becoming widespread IFR towards 12z Sat morning.
IFR likely to continue through much of SAT, gradually improving
from W to E in the evening. Isolated to widely sct showers will
continue through late evening, becoming widespread overnight
and Saturday with reductions to VIS expected as well with the
lowering CIGs.

Outlook: Conditions will continue to grad improve from west to
east Sat night. VFR conditions expected Sunday into early next
week.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds 10-15 knots for most wil veer to an E and eventually a SE
direction out ahead of an approaching low to the south. Seas
along the coast have lowed down to 3-5 ft, ending SCA
conditions across the central waters. However, as the
aforementioned low begins to approach from the south and deepens
winds will increase to 10-20 kts with our next round of small
craft conditions then expected later Saturday as the low makes
its closest point of approach and winds switch to become
northerly.

The aforementioned low will pass across or just south
of the waters Saturday afternoon into Sunday bringing our next
round of SCA`s which have been issued on this shift. For now it
looks like outside of any thunderstorms that impact the waters
which could bring locally enhanced winds and seas, winds will
remain around 20-25 kts with gusts up around 30 kts with a few
gusts up near 35 kts especially along the Gulf Stream and waters
outside of 20 nm. For now it appears gusts would be infrequent
enough and isolated enough to preclude any gale products but
will have to monitor trends today to make sure it stays that
way.


Outlook: High pressure settling to our east keeps winds
south/southwest and below 25 knots Sunday night onwards. Next
cold front moves through mid to late week, with increasing winds
and seas expected both ahead and behind it.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Saturday through
     Saturday evening for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 2 AM EDT Sunday
     for AMZ131-135-156-158-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 10 AM EDT Sunday
     for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 8 PM EDT Sunday
     for AMZ152-154.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RCF/RJ
AVIATION...CQD/CEB
MARINE...RCF/RJ