Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

769
FXUS62 KMHX 062000
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
300 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to build over the Carolinas this
weekend, as a front remains stalled offshore. A cold front will
move through early next week with low pressure developing along
it. High pressure will build back over the area mid week.
Another low and cold front move in late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Sat...Area of isentropically driven -RA cont to
sweep eastward through ENC, with most widespread south of Hwy 70
and little to no rain to the north. This band of lift and
associated rain will shift eastward and weaken by evening, with
a quiet and cool night ensuing. Some patchy to areas of fog
again tonight, with the potential for some patches of fzfg acrs
the nwrd coastal plain counties. Lows in the low 30s away from
the beaches, and in the 30s to near 40 beachfront.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
As of 3 PM Sat...High pres dominates with temps warming back
into the 50s, still below climo but closer to where we should be
for early Dec. Skies will be partly cloudy to the north, to
mostly cloudy south where an active subtropical jet cont to
stream mid/high clouds through the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...
As of 3 PM Sat...Small precip chances Mon, with dry and
seasonably cold mid week. Another weather maker possible by
week`s end.

Monday...The start of next week brings another chc of precip
with passage of cold front expected. Aloft, upper low will swing
through, and spur offshore cyclogenesis late in the day and
evening. Typical cold air chasing moisture scenario, where temps
tumble through late afternoon, but moisture is coming to an end.
There may be some overlap where rain mixes with and changes over
to some snow, but very limited to no impacts expected even if
this low end scenario pans out, as daytime highs will be in the
40s and a `warm` ground would be in place. Mon night lows will
be the coldest of the period, with 20-25 on the mainland, and
30-35 on the beaches and immediate coast.

Tuesday through Thursday...Dry conditions across the board
return as high pressure builds back in at the surface behind
Monday`s front and trough axis aloft finally pushes E of the
coast. Highs in the 40s Tue warming back into the 50s Wed as
winds become Sw. Good radiational cooling will bring lows into
the 20s for most of Mainland ENC, with 30s on the beaches and
OBX Tue night/Wed morning.

Friday through Saturday...Next chc for appreciable precip
arrives by week`s end, as next shortwave trough swings through
the Ern CONUS in a cont active synoptic pattern. Due to
uncertainty this far out in details and timing, pops kept at low
chc (30%) or lower for now.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 2 PM Sat...

Key Messages...

- IFR/LIFR ceilings will hang on this afternoon with little to
  no improvement expected

- Conditions are expected to improve to MVFR levels this
  evening, and could even become VFR for a few hours early
  tonight

- IFR/LIFR conditions are likely to return overnight in the form
  of fog and/or low stratus

- Freezing fog is possible across some inland areas if fog
  becomes dense early tomorrow morning

Low ceilings remain across ENC with cloud bases only ranging
from 200-700 ft. Recent forecast trends show that IFR/LIFR
conditions will hold on through the rest of the afternoon as
light rain moves back in across the southern 2/3rds of the
forecast area. Temporary improvement is likely this evening for
all but the immediate coast, and ceilings will come up to MVFR
levels, and clouds could even become scattered for a few hours
with VFR conditions developing. Unfortunately this will be
short lived as partial clearing overnight will promote the
development of fog, which could become dense early tomorrow
morning with IFR conditions likely returning for most inland
areas. Additionally, IFR level ceilings could also redevelop
both along the coast and inland, but it`s unclear at this time
if flight restrictions will be mostly from reduced visibilities
or ceiling heights (or both). Finally, with temperatures
dropping below freezing overnight, areas that have dense fog
could also see freezing fog forming, which could produce some
additional impacts. Improving conditions are expected later
tomorrow morning with VFR conditions returning at last.

Outlook: VFR conditions likely persist the rest of Sunday. By
Monday, pattern becomes wet again return to sub-VFR flight cats
likely as the developing low pressure makes it closest point of
approach. VFR conditions are then once again expected Tue into
Wed across ENC.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 3 PM...Latest obs show light nwrly winds in the 5-15 kt
range, and seas of 3-5 ft, highest outer waters. High pressure
will build in from the north through the weekend with stalled
front offshore. Winds become N-NE tonight and Sunday but remain
light. Seas will subside to mainly 2-4 ft tonight, occasionally
up to 5 ft across the outer central waters.

Mon...Backdoor front passes through with a sharp ramp up in nrly
winds. Solid SCA conditions expected, with the possibility for
gales, esp the better mixed Gulf waters offshore south of Cape
Hatteras. A gale watch has been issued where probs for gales
exceed 80%. Seas will quickly inc to 6-10 ft during the day Mon
and remain there through early Tue.

Tue through Thu...Winds and seas relax a bit, though by late
Wed winds turn swrly and inc to 15-25 kt for the sounds and
nearshore waters, and 20-30 kt with potential gale gusts for
the warmer outer waters south of Hatteras.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for
     AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...SGK
MARINE...TL