Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

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FXUS62 KMHX 081024
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
624 AM EDT Thu Oct 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Little change from the previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warmer weather today but still dry ahead of an approaching
cold front.

2) Wet weekend is likely as moisture associated with TC Isaias
overspreads the Carolinas. Heavy rain is likely with highest
amounts focused along the coast.

3) A few stronger thunderstorms are possible on Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Latest analysis this morning shows WNW to W low
level flow on the southern periphery of a broad mid-level
cyclone swirling over southeastern Canada. At the surface, high
pressure that has been in control for the past couple days is
beginning to weaken as it gives way to an approaching cold front
currently draped across the Midwest. Low-level thicknesses will
build today, aided by the aforementioned downsloping flow, will
aid in temperatures rising above climo into the low to mid 80s.
Closer to the coast, temperatures will be tempered a few
degrees by a thick cirrus shield being pulled off of TC Isaias
over the central Gulf.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The pattern begins to change after today as an
upper level ridge shifts east from the TN Valley to the
Carolinas. Meanwhile, a cutoff low is forecast to develop over
east Texas. The flow between these two features should help to
steer TC Isaias north through the Gulf and towards the Gulf
Coast, making landfall in the vicinity of Mobile Bay late
tomorrow evening.

East of Isaias, a plume of tropical moisture, with anomalous
2"+ PWATs, is forecast to surge north through the southeastern
CONUS over the weekend. The moisture, in tandem with enhanced
low- level convergence and strengthening WAA along a developing
warm front will support a period of moderate to heavy rain late
Saturday into Sunday across all of ENC. Guidance continue to
show a solid signal for around 1-2" of rain across much of the
area. Average amounts have changed little, but probabilities for
higher-end amounts continue to trend upward. This is especially
true along the coast where frictional convergence will likely
enhanced rainfall rates. NBM probabilities for amounts higher
than 3" are now between 50-60% here, and above 4" probabilities
are up to roughly 20-30% - only slightly higher than similar
odds from Euro and GFS ensembles.

6hr Flash flood guidance is around 2-4" for the areas of ENC
that saw heavy rainfall a few days ago, while the rest of the
area is 4"+. With area averages forecast to fall below these
ranges, and over a longer period of time, the risk of
significant hydro impacts appears low. That said, any convection
that develops will be capable of intense rainfall rates, with
rate-driven flooding of poor drainage and urban areas possible.
Areas from New Bern south remain in a Slight (Level 2 of 4) risk
of excessive rainfall from WPC.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Steady increase in moisture through the weekend
peaks on Sunday contributing to an increase in instability
across portions of ENC, greatest south of Highway 264. Factors
like cloud cover will determine how much we end up getting, but
ensemble averages suggest CAPEs as high as 1000+ J/kg in some
spots. While low- level forcing is in question, it`s a setup
that bears watching for a conditional severe thunderstorm risk.
Machine learning guidance and EFI guidance have changed little
from yesterday, still suggesting at least a marginal threat.

The remnants of Isaias are forecast to round the upper level
ridge and move off the Northern Mid-Atlantic Coast early next
week. Drier air then moves in behind it with a lower chance of
showers and thunderstorms by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Patchy shallow fog is gradually coming to an end this morning
per area webcams, although PGV may see another reported drop or
two before 12z. VFR conditions otherwise persist today with
winds slowly veering southwesterly as high pressure moves
offshore and a dry cold front approaches from the north. Dry
tonight but with plenty of high level clouds, which will aid in
keeping fog chances low - less than 10%.

Outlook: Generally VFR conditions are expected to persist
through at least tomorrow. Conditions change over the weekend
as tropical moisture gets pulled north off the Gulf and into the
Carolinas. This will support periods of low CIGs, widespread
RA, and potentially a TSRA risk. Gusty southeast to south winds
are likely as well, especially Saturday into Sunday along the
Outer Banks.

&&

.MARINE...
Light and variable winds under 5 kt in place over area waters
this morning with seas offshore hovering at 2-3 feet with
periods of 6-7 seconds. Winds slowly turn out of the southwest
later today ahead of an approaching dry cold front, but should
remain at 10 kt or less through the day. Winds will veer
northerly overnight as front pushes offshore, with a brief surge
of up to 15-20 kt possible for a few hours.

Outlook: Attention turns to the weekend as the remnants of TC
Isaias move inland through the Gulf Coast States. While the
system is forecast to remain well west of ENC, the gradient will
further tighten between that system and a strong surface high
over New England. This is expected to support easterly winds as
early as Sat PM up to 20-25 kt from Raleigh Bay south, then
turning southeast to south by Sunday as the low lifts north of
the Carolinas and overspreading 20-30 kt for most waters with
higher gusts.

Marine headlines are likely from this weekend into
early next week. For most waters, this looks like a strong
small craft advisory type of event. For the outer coastal
waters, winds may be strong enough to support gale headlines.
Winds are expected to be at their highest Saturday night into
Monday morning. In addition to the winds, seas are forecast to
build to at least 7-9ft at 7-8s. A warm front lifting north
through the area appears supportive of a risk of thunderstorms
as well, focused on Sunday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RM/MS
AVIATION...RM/MS
MARINE...RM/MS