Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

017
FXUS62 KMHX 030614
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
114 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Continued the trend of increasing pops Friday ahead of a cold
front.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warm with increasing moisture and isolated showers through
Thursday.

2) Chance of more widespread showers and a few thunderstorms on
Friday ahead of a cold front.

3) Cooler, drier, and more seasonable behind the fropa for this
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Little change to the forecast reasoning and
synoptic setups through the period. Where guidance is fairly
well clustered is with an amplified upper trough that will be
shifting east out of the Central U.S. While there is still some
potential for a cutoff low to develop, most guidance has now
trended towards more of a progressive and open wave as it moves
through the Eastern U.S. Before that happens, low level flow
will be from a moist easterly direction over the next several
days, which will advect favorable regime for on and off light
rain, esp for the coastal areas through Thursday. Continued to
increase pops a bit along the coast to account for isolated to
widely scattered showers, best chances during diurnal heating,
through mid week. ENC will cont under influence of e to se flow
and hence a daily chance for widely sct showers. Don`t expect
much in the way of accums, but enough to wet the ground in
places, esp the further east in ENC.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Most guidance is now centering on the best
chance of showers and even a few thunderstorms moving in Friday.
Perhaps some WAA showers on Thu with warm front migrating
through, as well as perhaps a rumble of thunder as well, but
main forcing mechanism for showers and storms arrives Friday
ahead of a cold front. Of note, some guidance shows anomalous
moisture and higher- than- normal instability for early
November, as indicated by EFI highlighting CAPE vals nearing the
80th percentile. This would support the potential of some
higher rainfall rates and totals should this materialize. A few
stronger storms may even materialize if timing of showers
arrives in the afternoon coinciding with peak heating. The other
aspect of the forecast that appears to be coming more clear
this week is the potential for above to well above normal
temperatures, especially Wednesday and Thursday, and esp during
the overnight periods. While record highs may not be broken,
warming low- level thicknesses in advance of the approaching
trough should support highs warming into the 70s, with some low
80s possible inland. Meanwhile, overnight lows are forecast to
be closer to our normal highs for this time of year. Some record
warm lows may be in jeopardy. For reference, normal highs are
65-70 for early November, with normal lows in the 40s inland and
50s along the coast.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Better agreement amongst 00z model guidance
with fropa now late Friday, which will usher in a more
seasonably dry airmass for the coming weekend. Return to mo
sunny skies and highs in the 60s and lows generally in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecast confidence is moderate to high over the next 24 hours.

An area of stratus clouds at 4-5k ft has persisted for awhile over
KISO, KEWN, and KOAJ, and will likely linger for at least another 1-
2 hours. Eventually, more of an easterly flow should help push this
stratus west of those TAF sites, but it`s unclear how long this will
take. Meanwhile, clear skies and light winds around the area of
stratus have already led to temporary reductions to VIS at times.
The setup overnight appears favorable for longer periods of
reductions to VIS due to BR/MIFG/FG through early Tuesday morning,
and the TAFs continue to reflect this expectation. Drier air above
the surface should lead to less low-level cloudcover on Tuesday. By
Tuesday night, another round of BR/MIFG/FG appears possible thanks
to radiational cooling of a moist boundary layer. At the same time,
though, it is unclear whether stratus or BR/MIFG/FG will be favored.
A sharpening coastal trough edging towards the coast suggests more
of a stratus setup vs BR/FG. Regardless, the key takeaway is that
there is a potential for sub-VFR conditions once again during that
time.

Outlook: Periods of low CIGs and SHRA will be possible off and on
Wednesday and Thursday. A more notable risk of SHRA, as well as
TSRA, comes on Friday as a cold front moves through. A risk of sub-
VFR conditions will likely accompany this front as well. SE/S/SW
flow will generally dominate through Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will remain in place to the north with coastal
troughing along the coast. Latest obs show NE-E winds 5-15 kt
with seas mainly 3-4 ft. Light to moderate NE-E winds will
continue through Tuesday (strongest across the southern and
central waters). Seas 2-4 ft will continue nearshore and 3-5 ft
offshore. Iso to widely sct light showers will be possible
through mid week.

Outlook (Wed through Sat): Coastal troughing is forecast to
remain in place through at least the middle of the week, with
the strongest gradient and highest winds focused across the
central and southern waters. The flow then begins to become
southeasterly by Thursday in the wake of the inland-advancing
coastal trough and warm front. Winds will cont in the 10-20 kt
range with sub SCA seas. Thursday and beyond, a better chance
for some advected 6+ ft seas as weak low pres develops well
offshore, though winds will remain below 20 kt. Cold front
passes through late Friday, with winds turning nwrly behind the
fropa but should cont remaining below SCA thresholds. High 6+
ft seas may linger into Sat however.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CQD/TL
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...CQD/TL