Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

697
FXUS62 KMHX 060649
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
149 AM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Little changes from the previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread showers and a few severe thunderstorms possible
ahead of a cold front on Friday.

2) Cooler, drier, and more seasonable behind the frontal
passage this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Current analysis this morning depicts a complex
mid-level pattern with three distinct shortwaves digging across
portions of the Great Lakes, Midwest and MS Valley while primary
jet axis sits just to their east over the spine of the
Appalachians. At the surface, main feature of interest for us
is a stalled to slow moving front sitting across far western NC
which is just now beginning to push eastward. Pre-frontal
trough ahead of it is driving a broken band of showers and a few
embedded thunderstorms extending roughly along the I-85
corridor.

The forecast for today has changed little, with widespread
showers and a few thunderstorms developing late this afternoon
as the aforementioned front finally makes its way through our
area. Most CAMs continue to depict some isolated showers
migrating NEward off the water along the pre-frontal trough.
This is certainly possible although it is worth noting this is a
common artifact in guidance that has a very mixed history of
being realized. If such activity does develop, it could modestly
hamper destabilization through the day. In either scenario, a
minimum of around 500 J/kg MLCAPE (worst case scenario 1000 J/kg
as suggested by the HRRR) to be in place this afternoon across
the region fueled by above average moisture and temperatures in
the mid to upper 70s. This is unusually high for early November,
supported by EFI highlighting CAPE values in the 75-80th
percentile.

In addition to instability, respectable low-level shear will be
present ahead of the front with 0-1 km values potentially
reaching 20-25 kt. This will support a pre-storm environment
that could support organized convection and possibly low-topped
supercells in the afternoon and evening hours. The primary
hazard would be damaging winds, but model hodographs do show
low-level veering suggesting a brief tornado is not implausible.

The main threat window runs from early afternoon to around
sunset inland, lingering slightly longer over the Outer Banks
but with a diminishing severe risk as instability collapses. The
main front sweeps offshore late tonight with any remaining
showers exiting the OBX around or shortly after midnight. There
will likely be a delay between the main front coming through and
the dry air surge, so would not be surprised to see a period of
low stratus Fri night into Sat morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A more seasonably dry airmass will be ushered
in for the weekend behind the front. Expect a return to mostly
sunny skies and highs in the upper 60s to low 70s Sat, then
cooler yet for Sun with 60-65. Lows will be in the 40s, with
some 30s for some of the normally colder spots. We will have to
monitor the temp forecast for any frost concerns Sunday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecast confidence is moderate over the next 24 hours.

SCT low clouds will continue to stream north across ENC overnight in
the ongoing moist southerly flow. Meanwhile, to the west there are
SCT TSRA ongoing from central NC into central VA. The expectation is
that these TSRA will eventually expand in coverage overnight and,
especially, on Friday as they move east. The TSRA were hit harder in
the TAFs for Friday given high confidence in occurrence. There is
still some uncertainty regarding the evolution of the TSRA activity,
mainly regarding whether there will be one solid line of TSRA or a
couple of broken lines. Either way, the risk of TSRA impacts is high
for all TAF sites Friday afternoon and evening. The strongest TSRA
may produce strong winds in excess of 40kt. Brief, but significant,
reductions to LIFR/IFR VIS will be possible as well. A tornado risk
may develop as well, although that hazard is much less certain. In
the wake of the TSRA, SCT to BKN low CIGs look to linger into Friday
night, with a mix of IFR/MVFR conditions. One other note is that a
period of gusty southerly winds (up to 20-25kt) will be possible
from 15z through around 22z on Friday ahead of the cold front.

Outlook: An extended period of VFR conditions is expected after
today`s TSRA as a much drier airmass builds in across the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Light to moderate southerly winds will continue through the
period (strongest across the outer southern and central waters).
Seas will persist at 3-5 ft nearshore and near 4-6 ft offshore
through today. A cold front moves through this evening into the
overnight hours for our waters, and ahead of this boundary
strong thunderstorms capable of gusty winds and a brief
waterspout are possible. Behind the front, winds switch to the
north/northwest, gusting to near 20 knots. Gusts exceeding 25 kt
will likely be concentrated beyond 20nm offshore, so no
headlines were offered this morning.

Outlook (Saturday through Tuesday): High builds in this weekend
into next week, keeping winds below 20 kts and skies rain-free.
Despite the decrease in winds, elevated seas may linger through
the weekend for 20-60nm zones at around 4-6 feet, and an
isolated 6 foot wave is possible just within 20nm primarily for
waters in Raleigh Bay.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MS
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...MS