Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

143
FXUS62 KMHX 141719
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1219 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Freeze Warning is now in effect Sun morning and expanded to the
interior portions of the Crystal Coast (S Craven, W Carteret, E
Onslow).

Lowered min T`s through at least the early part of the week
each night as dry high pres will dominate with excellent rad
cooling.

Marine: SCA remains in effect for all but the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers through Sat.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered showers through early Sat morning, then some
potential for patchy to areas of frost deep inland by sunrise
Sat.

2) First freeze of the season for much of ENC away from bodies
of water Sun morning, with cont cold mornings through at least
early in the work week.

3) Dry high pres continues through mid week with warm days but
chilly nights and continued ongoing drought conditions.

Marine: Gusty N to NW winds with strongly mixed CAA into Sat
morning with SCA`s for all zones except the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Shortwave and backdoor reinforcing cold front
dropping through ENC tonight with moderate low- mid level
frontogenesis. The area of enhanced lift associated with the
wave and frontal forcing will overlap with an area of moderate
moistening and steep lapse rates through late tonight before dry
air rushes in. While moisture isn`t great, the forcing is enough
to squeeze out some sct rain showers falling through a 6-10k ft
cloud deck. Very little measurable rain is expected for most
areas, and with a drying column commencing pre dawn, showers
will quickly erode from nw to se and off the coast by daybreak.

By sunrise Sat, some areas far inland may still see enough
clearing and decoupling winds to get some frost, though temps
should remain safely above freezing limiting impacts. The frost
adv for the coastal plain counties remains in effect.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong surface high will build in over the
weekend and will be accompanied by a colder than normal airmass.
This should support below to well below normal temperatures,
both during the day and at night.

The coldest thicknesses associated with this airmass will
settle in late Sat night into Sun morning. With strong high
pressure overhead and good radiational cooling conditions, the
stage is set for lows in the upper 20s to low 30s for many
inland areas away from the influence of water. This includes
areas adjacent to Croatan and Hoffman forest, and the freeze
watch that was in effect has been upgraded to a freeze warning
and expanded to include the interior areas of the Crystal Coast,
which typically outpace even the coolest guidance in these very
dry airmass regimes. Sun morning may very well end the
frost/freeze program for many areas, but for the rest, some
frost/freeze potential may continue into early next week as high
pressure continues to support good radiational cooling
conditions each night in tandem with cont anomalously cold low-
level thicknesses and low TD`s in place.

KEY MESSAGE 3...The aforementioned very dry airmass and low TD`s
each day over the coming week will exacerbate the worsening
drought conditions in place across ENC, and fortunately winds
are not expected to be strong with the high nearby. However,
fire weather concerns may grow with the curing vegetation
combined with low RH values each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecast confidence is high over the next 24 hours.

Northwest flow, gusty at times, will persist into this afternoon,
then winds are expected to quickly decrease after sunset, and remain
light into Sunday morning. Scattered diurnally-driven cumulus clouds
around 5,000ft are expected to develop through this afternoon,
potentially reaching BKN at times. However, SHRA are not expected
today. Clouds should quickly decrease in coverage tonight with the
loss of daytime heating.

Outlook: A weak cold front will move through ENC Sunday evening and
night with a weak northeast wind shift. There may be a brief bump up
in winds as well, but at this time a significant increase in winds
is not expected. Light north to northeast winds are expected to
continue into much of next week as high pressure remains centered to
the north of the area. Scattered low clouds may accompany Sunday`s
weak cold front, but the risk of sub-VFR CIGs is low (<10% chance).

&&

.MARINE...
Have inc winds across the marine domain with strong CAA
expected tonight into early Sat. 13/12Z REFS probs for SCA gusts
(>25 kt) are 80-90% for the sounds and Alligator, and with well
mixed boundary layer with relatively warm SST`s and cold
incoming airmass, the strong mixing from aloft will easily allow
for wind gusts into the 25-30 kt range overnight into Sat
morning. Ocnl gusts to 25 kt are possible at the mouth of the
Neuse, though not-ideal fetch from the N to NW will leave out of
the SCA suite attm. In addition, have inc seas by several ft
for the nrn and ctrl waters due to the N winds being up to
several ft too low on NWPS. Used a blend of NBM/WWIV for seas,
which will build to 6 ft (nearshore) to 8 ft (offshore) with the
strong nrly winds. SCA conditions in effect for the sounds and
srn waters through Sat morning, and into Sat evening for the
nrn/ctrl waters n of Ocracoke before seas subside below 6 ft.

Outlook (Sun through Wed): High pres will dominate through the
period. With low pres trough well offshore and high pres ridging
in, general winds will be from the N and NE though speeds should
remain sub-SCA levels, with speeds generally 10-20 kt, lower for
the inland rivers and sounds. Seas will generally be 2-4ft
nearshore, and 3-5ft offshore.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Sunday for NCZ029-044-045-
     079-080-090>092-193>195-198-199.
     Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Sunday for NCZ046-047-081-
     094-196.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ135-
     156-158-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for AMZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RM/TL
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...TL