Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

896
FXUS62 KMHX 110528
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1228 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
SCAs issued for the central and southern nearshore coastal
waters Thu into Fri.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Above normal temperatures through Thursday.

2) Surface low passes to the north with its associated cold front
tracking across ENC near the end of the week bringing breezy
conditions to the area. Behind the cold front well below normal
temperatures are forecast this weekend. Widespread freezing
temperatures possible this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Zonal flow aloft pushes offshore as a weak
upper level trough out ahead of a second and stronger upper
level trough noted well to the west in the Upper Midwest pushes
across the Southeast late tonight into Wednesday. Associated
weak shortwave also pushes across the Carolinas tonight into
Thurs morning as well. While there will be forcing in place,
with ample dry air over the Mid-Atlantic, outside of high cirrus
overspreading ENC tonight not expecting any precip with this
shortwave. Winds look to decouple tonight as well, so if cirrus
remains thin enough another threat for some non impactful ground
fog will be possible especially along the coast where the
lightest winds will be in place. Dry weather continues across
ENC through Fri with slightly above avg temps as highs get into
the 70s Wed/Thurs.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Biggest change in the forecast for later this
week and weekend is that both precip chances and winds have
been trending down for this weekends system. Deep upper level
trough in the Upper Mid-West will dive SE`wards into the Ohio
River Valley Thurs into Fri with associated jet streak pushing
off the east coast and strengthening during this timeframe.
At the same time, strong shortwave also rounds the base of this
trough Thurs into Fri as well promoting lift across the Eastern
Seaboard. At the surface, low pressure in the Upper Mid-West on
Wed pushes SE`wards on Thurs while deepening and then
transferring its energy to a second offshore low south of Long
Island. This has been where the biggest change in the forecast
has occured as ensemble, AI, and deterministic guidance has
trended towards a more northern track for this surface low
which as a result has trended precip chances down once again to
sub-mentionable levels and has lowered the winds. So while the
30-40+ mph gust risk has lowered it will still be breezy across
ENC Thurs and again on Fri with steady 10-20 mph W-NW winds and
gusts up to 25-35 mph possible. While winds have trended
downward, if the strongest gusts are realized over a longer
amount of time Thurs/Fri we could still see some minor coastal
flooding concerns across the soundside OBX mainly north of
Oregon Inlet, though confidence is low that this is more than
nuisance water level rises given the decreasing trend in wind
guidance.

Behind the system, unseasonably cool air will flood into the
area as Canadian high pressure system builds into the Eastern
Seaboard this weekend behind the departing low knocking highs
down into the 50s for the weekend and into early next week and
offer the first real opportunity for a freeze Sat night and Sun
night as lows get into the 30s each night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions ongoing across eastern NC today as high pressure
remains in control, with a weak surface trough draped along the
lee of the Appalachians. Main concern for aviation interests is
fog, although any coverage will be shallow and transient given
extremely dry near-surface soundings. Passing cirri overhead may
also limit coverage, especially from EWN south. Made some minor
adjustments to previous TAFs based on observational cloud and
moisture trends.

VFR conditions ongoing tomorrow with an uptick in cirri coverage
and SW winds as high shifts offshore.

Outlook: Some patchy fog remains possible early Thurs AM if
skies can remain clear enough. Approaching storm system at the
end of the week brings an increase in gusty winds. Precip
probabilities have continued to trend downward now favoring a
more prolonged period of VFR into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs show W-SW winds 5-15 kt with seas 2-4 ft. High
pressure will continue to shift offshore as next frontal system
slowly approaches from the west. Light winds this morning
becoming S-SW 5-15 kt this afternoon and tonight with seas
mainly 1-3 ft. Winds and seas will grad increase late tonight
into Thu morning.

Outlook: Have made some changes to the extended period for our
waters with the biggest change being that the gale force wind
potential has gone down on Fri night into Sat across our coastal
waters. Strong front approaches from the west on Thurs allowing
for SW`rly winds to increase to 10-20 kts with gusts up to
25-30 kts bringing our first threat for small craft conditions
to our waters Thurs. Issued SCA for the central and southern
nearshore waters for prefrontal SW winds and seas building to
4-7 ft. There is still a small potential for 35 kt gusts across
the offshore waters ahead of the front, but that threat also
appears to have trended downward. Front tracks across the
region Thu night, with winds on Fri shifting winds to a NW`rly
direction at 10-20 kts with gusts up around 25-35 kts. As noted
before, wind forecast has trended down over the last day or so
as strong low pressure looks to track well to the north of the
area so while gale force wind potential has gone down, there
still looks to be a solid chance at seeing widespread SCA
conditions north of the Raleigh Bay area this weekend.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 10 AM EST Friday
     for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 7 AM EST Friday
     for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CQD/RCF
AVIATION...MS
MARINE...CQD/RCF