Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

311
FXUS62 KMHX 052332
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
632 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated Aviation Discussion

Increased PoPs through this evening. Wintry mix remains
possible inland into tonight.

Added Gale Watches for this weekend for waters not currently
covered by Gale Warnings.

Cold Wx Advisory also skipped due to brevity and marginality of
conditions.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Black ice and snow/ice refreeze remains a threat to travel,
though lesser impacts are expected with extensive melting
yesterday.

2) Snow/sleet may still mix in to precip into this evening.

3) Potential Record Breaking cold Sunday and Monday mornings.

MARINE...Gale Warnings are up for coastal waters S of Oregon
Inlet with SCAs in place across almost all of the rest of area
waters. Another period of stronger Gales expected Saturday,
Storm Force gusts possible over far outer coastal waters.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Though we`ve seen extensive melting of the snow
pack yesterday from a combination of rain and warm temperatures,
there remains a threat to black ice and snow/ice refreezing the
next few days as temperatures drop well below freezing at night.
Have opted not to issue SPS for black ice tomorrow morning with
coverage expected to be spotty, but even one patch can cause
issues. Early morning drivers FRI should use extra caution,
especially in areas that saw rain today, near bridges, and
areas next to accumulations of snow that melted some more today.
Evening shift may still opt to issue an SPS for this threat.

Key Message 2...Earlier model runs had precip ceasing a few
hours ago but light returns remain on radar as moisture flowing
in stout mid and upper level trough continues to slide over the
incoming SFC high in the wake of the front. Have increased PoPs
to the SChc- Chc range for the vast majority of the FA. This
means that wintry mix of precip remains possible across the area
into tonight with little to no accumulation, and therefor
minimal impacts expected. Chances wane from W to E through this
evening. This precip threat should end as the trough axis aloft
shifts offshore after sunset. Have all land areas, including
OBX, dry from midnight onward.

Key Message 3...A series of fronts cross the area this weekend
leading to a brief warm up FRI with MaxTs getting back into the
mid to upper 40s as SFC flow shifts to prefrontal SWerly WAA
regime second half of the day. This wind shift and mostly sunny
skies should get rid of a large amount of the lingering
snowpack across the FA. Strong CAA develops behind the front
with gusty NWerly SFC winds aided by rapidly strengthening
MidLevel Jet directly overhead. This will usher in another round
of very cold air which could break Record MinTs Sun and Mon
morning. See CLIMATE section below for a few local records.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Primarily VFR conditions are noted across ENC with ceilings at
about 3.5-5.5 kft with the lone exception being across the OBX
and immediate coast seeing MVFR ceilings at 2-3 kft this
evening. Any left over MVFR ceilings are forecast to push
offshore over the next several hours with MVFR potentially
hanging around as late as 06Z across Hatteras Island. In
addition to the low end VFR and MVFR ceilings, widely scattered
light rain or a SNPL mix is noted generally along and east of
Hwy 17 as a mid level shortwave tracks across the area. Don`t
expect much impact from any of this activity as ENC has remained
above freezing this evening so any SNPL mix would melt on
contact with the ground but this activity could briefly reduce
ceilings/vis before pushing offshore by about 03/04Z.

Once leftover MVFR ceilings are gone, expect VFR conditions
into Fri evening with skies clearing towards daybreak before
high and mid clouds begin to enter the picture again from the NW
Fri afternoon. Then as a potent mid level disturbance dives
SE`wards across the Mid-Atlantic expect ceilings to begin to
lower further potentially to MVFR heights as early as Fri
evening with a chance at some light rain mainly across our
northern tier, though showers could get as far south as EWN/OAJ
overnight Fri. Winds remain light through the period generally
10 kts or less.

Outlook: Predominantly VFR Saturday morning a cold front moves
through bringing gusty winds and potentially a drop to MVFR
ceilings ahead of it. High pressure builds in later Saturday
bringing back VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Behind a cold front winds have increased to N 15-25 kts with
gusts to 30 kts across larger inland waters, 20-30G35-40kt
coastal waters S of Oregon Inlet. Gale Warnings in effect where
appropriate. Conditions will begin to improve by early tomorrow
morning, and winds will subside quickly to NW 10-20 kts after
sunrise. Seas are mostly 6-8ft late this afternoon and will
increase slightly more until winds begin to subside after
midnight local. Waves subside to 4-6 ft by late tomorrow
morning.

Outlook: After a brief window of improving conditions, strong
winds will again develop over the coastal waters Friday night as
a strong Arctic front moves through the region. Strong Gale
conditions are expected, and will persist into Sunday morning.
Storm Force gusts possible over outer reaches of coastal waters.
Seas peak 7-12ft overnight Saturday night. Gale Watches have
been issued for waters not currently under any Gale Headlines
for this weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record low temps for 2/8 (Sunday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern         15/1947  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    11/1985  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville       14/1977  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    15/1977  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston          10/1977  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     15/1977  (NCA ASOS)

Record low temps for 2/9 (Monday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern         12/1970  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    15/1970  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville       12/1934  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    10/1970  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston          16/1995  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     18/1995  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EST Friday for AMZ131-137-230-
     231.
     Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday morning for
     AMZ131-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for AMZ135.
     Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday morning for
     AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Friday for AMZ150.
     Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday morning for
     AMZ150.
     Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Friday for AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CEB
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...CEB