Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

648
FXUS62 KMHX 071920
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
220 PM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Small Craft Advisories issued through this evening.

Decreased temperatures Monday night

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cooler, drier, and more seasonable behind the frontal
passage this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Seasonably dry and temperature airmass (perhaps
a couple degrees below normal) is being ushered in behind this
morning`s cold front as it pushes further offshore. In the near
term, low stratus will continue dissipating, leading to clear
skies this evening.The high will become the dominant weather
feature for the weekend and much of next week. Cooler temperatures
with highs in the 60s prevail today and tomorrow before a
slight warm-up next week into the low 70s, although humidity
will remain low. We will have to watch for the risk of some
frost over the upcoming nights, although chances have decreased
for tonight and Sunday night, and increased for Monday night.
Tonight a mixture of high clouds and light winds should keep low
temps around 40 inland. NBM had low temps in the mid to upper
30s, but this seems to be an erroneous bias correction as all
other available guidance is not that low, and high clouds/light
winds should prevent proper radiational cooling. Tomorrow night
skies are clear, but light winds are still expected to continue,
once again lessening radiational cooling. Monday night however,
we have the high firmly overhead with clear skies and calm
winds, paired with dewpoints in the 30s. This results in the
best chance for frost concerns, and will have to be monitored in
subsequent updates. Manually brought the temps down by blending
in NBM/NBM10 for the typical radiational cooling areas in
Carteret, Onslow, Jones, and Duplin counties, with minTs in the
mid 30s Tuesday morning in those locations.

Beyond mid-week most guidance depicts an increasingly unsettled
pattern as complex mid-level low deepens over the eastern CONUS.
There is at least some signal for a developing low off our coast
beyond Wednesday, although its evolution and timing remain
highly uncertain.

Guidance is pretty locked in on unseasonable cold temperatures
next weekend behind the low pressure system. While there is
inherent uncertainty 7 days out, CPC does have a slight risk of
much below normal temperatures for our coastal plain counties
next weekend. This will be worth monitoring for any freeze
headlines, as the end of the growing season is Nov 25 for our
land forecast zones.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR for most with the last gasp of low stratus dissipating this
afternoon. Generally clear skies into the evening, until cirrus
spreads over the region tonight. Winds become light out of the
NW tonight, but are expected not to decouple as a surge of dry
air advection moves through the region keeping us mixed. As a
result, fog development is still unlikely tonight, and tomorrow
night as well.

Outlook: An extended period of VFR conditions is expected much
drier airmass remains over the region.

&&

.MARINE...
High is building in, with a surge in winds earlier this
afternoon having since lessened. However, despite winds now
below 25 knots, seas responded to the surge, and are now 5-7 ft
for coastal waters north of Ocracoke Inlet. The seas should
gradually subside with the winds now decreased, but there is
uncertainty on how long it takes to do so. As a result, have
issued a SCA until 3Z for the aforementioned coastal waters, but
a cancellation or extension may be necessitated depending on
observational trends. There is another surge in winds expected
tonight as dry air advection moves through the region. However,
at this point winds are expected to be below 25 knots with the
surge. Lighter winds 5-15kts expected Sunday.

Outlook (Sunday through Wednesday): Sunday night, another surge
in winds is expected, but at this point should be sub-SCA in
strength. High builds into next week, keeping winds below 20
kts and skies rain-free.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MS/RJ
AVIATION...RJ
MARINE...MS/RJ