Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

908
FXUS62 KMHX 272041
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
341 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Progression of rain in the near term has sped up leading to a
longer dry period over the weekend lasting into early next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Overcast skies with relatively light rain lingering along
the coast into Saturday morning before a weak low pushing out to
sea can pull moisture away from the area leading to clearing
conditions with warming temps for remainder of weekend.

2) Growing signal for a fast moving low traversing the eastern
CONUS early next week bringing brief rainfall.

Aviation...Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions likely to last into
Saturday morning.

Marine...Marginal SCA conditions possible over far outer
coastal waters Cape to Cape tonight and Saturday. Next period
of likely widespread SCA conditions SUN night into TUE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Cold front pushed S of the FA earlier this
morning, shifting winds from SW to N behind it. Area of heaviest
and most widespread rainfall is currently pushing off the coast
with some lighter though more scattered precip will remain
possible into SAT morning. SAT, the shortwave aloft begins to
push offshore which will aid in the further organization of a
weak low to develop and ride the Gulf Stream slowly NEward
through the day SAT. This low will act to pull clouds and
moisture offshore away from the the area through the day SAT
and SAT night, which will help dry out the next frontal passage
expected SUN night into MON. Winds briefly become SWerly ahead
of the next front, allowing MaxTs SUN to get into the low 70s
under sunny skies.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The next potential system will come through the
area early next week as a quick moving low zips across the
central plains and mid- Atlantic. Precipitation amounts look to
be a bit lower for this system compared to today`s with the low
traveling along the boundary passing to the W and N of the FA.
Limited coverage of SChc to Chc PoPs late MON and TUE with dry
weather mid to late-week. Temps warm in generally Serly flow
this period with MaxTs getting into the upper 70s and maybe even
80s FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Light to moderate showers are ongoing east of Highway 17 due to
a lingering frontal boundary. The rain and cool northeasterly
flow are sustaining widespread sub-VFR conditions with the
majority of terminals reporting IFR/LIFR. The rain is expected
to move offshore this evening, but IFR/LIFR stratus will hang
on through tomorrow morning. Areas of fog are expected to
develop late tonight with VIS down to 1-3 SM at times. Some
guidance is more aggressive with lower VIS, but light winds may
keep us mixed enough to preclude dense fog. Flight cats should
improve to MVFR by late morning/early afternoon tomorrow.

Outlook: Away from the OBX, conditions should improve to VFR by
late Saturday afternoon. Along the OBX, sub-VFR CIGs may linger
through the day with fog developing along the NOBX and expanding
southwestward through the evening. A cold front will then move
through Sunday afternoon or evening, bringing a northerly wind
shift and our next chance for sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
NEerly winds 10-15G20kt behind front to the S of area waters. moving
through the region. Rain lingering into early SAT until low
pressure traveling along the boundary works NEward up the
GStream through the day pulling moisture away from the area.
Some sea fog possible, most notably over Nern waters overnight
into SAT morning. NEerly winds will approach SCA criteria over
FAR outer waters Cape to Cape overnight and through much of the
day SAT. Would issue SCA if areal coverage coverage or duration
were more sustained, but the 25kt gusts are forecast to bounce
in and out of the 20nm zones through the near term. Nerly winds
weaken to be AoB 10kt SUN before becoming SWerly ahead of the
next front the cross area waters SUN night into MON morning.

Buoy data show seas generally 3-4ft@5-8sec with some increase
overnight into SAT with the winds. Seas fall into SUN becoming
2-3ft before quickly building again.

Outlook: Next period of widespread SCA likely SUN night into
early next week as strong NEerly surge fills in behind front.
NEerly winds 15-25G30KT building seas 6-8ft, 8-9ft over Cape to
Cape outer waters.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CEB
AVIATION...OJC
MARINE...CEB