Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

278
FXUS62 KMHX 041104
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
704 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Only minor adjustments downwards from NBM temps through early
next week.

Increased pops for shower/storm chances Monday and Tuesday.

Aviation discussion was updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dangerously hot and humid conditions through early next week.

2) A more active pattern takes shape, especially Monday and
Tuesday, where showers and storms are expected.

3) Another round of dangerous heat and humidity may build late
next week into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Heat and humidity will continue to build into
ENC from the north and west. The heat will peak today, as
low level thicknesses soar to around 1440M, indicative of high
temps around 100 for interior areas of ENC, threatening some
record highs (see Climate section below). These temps combined
with TD`s around 70 will push heat indices into the 105-110
degree range, and heat advisory remains in effect for inland ENC
and the NOBX. Beach locales will escape the high heat as a
seabreeze develops by around noon and begins pushing inland,
with heat indices expected to remain in the 100-105 range here.

Have continued to blend NBM with ECS/MAV/MET guide which is
closer to reality as NBM cont several degrees to high with Max
T`s. TD`s also running a bit high with NBM, and thus ENC will
escape extreme heat warn criteria.

However, as we move into Sun and esp early next week, we will
lose the extremely hot temps as bndry layer moistens and TD`s
creep higher. Despite the lowered temps only in the low/mid
90s, the higher TD`s well into the 70s to approaching 80 on the
coast by Monday will act to produce oppressively warm overnight
lows, and may need to extend heat advisories through the
overnight periods as little relief will be seen at night.
Afternoon heat indices will cont aoa 105 due to the higher TD`s
even though max T`s will be lower.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Return to a pattern of increased shower and
tstorms chances early next week (Mon and Tue). A series of
shortwaves, inland troughing, and a very slow moving backdoor
front will converge to produce higher than climo coverage of
showers and storms each afternoon to early evening, and have
increased pops a bit into the 50-70% range, with much needed
rain across a good portion of ENC expected.

Beyond Tue, pops return back to climo (20-40%) as more typical
seabreeze showers/storms return. Hts/thicknesses slowly build in
the process as ridging begins to build once again, with heat
indices 100-105 in the forecast.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Aforementioned ridging builds further towards
the end of next week and esp next weekend, as ensemble mean hts
rise back to above normal, and forecast temps reach the mid to
possibly upper 90s, pushing heat indices to potentially aoa 105.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mainly VFR SKC with only some patchy cirrus and diurnal cu
expected. No fog is forecast, as any patchy fog that does
develop will quickly dissipate by sunrise. Sea breeze picks
winds up and turning them from sw to s during the afternoon
hours Sat, but remaining below 10 kt

Outlook (Sun through Wed): Dry weather is expected to prevail
with pred VFR conditions through Sunday, but could see patchy
fog during the early morning hours. Upper ridge breaks down
Monday with shortwave energy bringing good chances for showers
and thunderstorms and sub-VFR conditions Mon into Tue. By Wed,
more typical iso to sct showers and storms are expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds generally 5-15 kt will cont, with the lightest winds
in the morning, inc in the afternoon to evening as thermal
gradient tightens, but gusts generally remain at or below 20
kt. Seas cont around 2-3 ft with up to 4 ft possible across the
outer zones.

Outlook (Sun through Wed): The Bermuda high remains dominant
through the weekend with light winds 5-15 kt and seas around
2-3 ft. Bermuda high pulls offshore late Sunday into Monday with
a front slowly dropping south across the Mid- Atlantic serving
to tighten gradients a bit and expect winds to increase to
around 10-20 kt and seas building to 3-5 ft, but at this time no
SCA conditions are expected through at least mid week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for 7/4 (Saturday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        95/2023  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   94/2020  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      99/2002  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   93/1997  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston        104/1902  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    98/1993  (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 7/5 (Sunday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        99/1990  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   92/2018  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville     100/2002  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   93/2020  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston        104/1902  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    97/1990  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198-203.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TL/CEB
AVIATION...TL
MARINE...TL/CEB