Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

962
FXUS62 KMHX 111049
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
649 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation Disco Updated.

Previous Disco...Marine headlines have been updated for SW wind
gusts to 25kt due to thermal gradient this afternoon and
evening.

No heat headlines for today, but more than likely a Heat
Advisory will be needed for FRI.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Risk of dangerous heat FRI.

2) Pattern expected to become more conducive for showers and
thunderstorms for the weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...High pressure will remain centered off the Mid-
Atlantic coast allowing for steady SWerly flow outside of daily
seabreezes. This will result in rather warm low-level
thicknesses overspreading the Carolinas. While NBM guidance
continues to be too warm with temps, records will still be in
jeopardy on FRI (see climate section below for record high
info). The caveats each day through this weekend will be the
coverage of convection (see KEY MESSAGE 2 for additional
details), and the potential for high clouds/convective debris.
Both of those factors can have significant impacts on the
temperature forecast each day. Regardless, persistent SWerly
flow will allow dewpoints to steadily rise into the upper 60s to
low 70s each day with the highest Td being found behind the
daily seabreeze as it works its way inland. This will lead to
higher humidity and increasing "feels like" temperatures even on
the days with convection/clouds. There does look to be a chance
for a few showers and thunderstorms today and FRI, mainly
during the afternoon and evening each day. Today, MaxTs will top
out in the upper 90s leading to AppTs in the 100-104deg range,
which is just below local Heat Advisory criteria. Fri will
start already relatively warm with early morning MinTs 10deg
above Normal, mid to upper 70s, and low level thicknesses will
continue to increase. Probabilistic guidance currently shows a
70-90% chance of exceeding 95 degrees for inland areas away from
the coast. This combined with dewpoints in the low 70s suggests
a widespread area of AppTs of ~105deg. This setup could lead to
the first heat headlines of the summer season. The NWS`
experimental Heat Risk guidance shows much of ENC in the major
category, with a few areas nearing the extreme category.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Synoptic pattern is expected to shift towards
something more favorable for convection across ENC this weekend
with a weak front crossing the FA SAT and stalling to the S of
the area into early next week when troughing aloft develops,
opening moisture transport from the Gulf. However, this
shouldn`t be read as a high coverage of thunderstorms each day.
In fact most of the day will be rain free, but as is typical in
convective season in ENC, hit and miss storms are going to dot
the area each afternoon through early evening. As long as the
midlevel ridge holds on, very warm temps aloft will continue to
cap a greater coverage of convection into FRI, and thus
afternoon spotty rain chances are only 20%, so slightly below
climo. Slightly higher chances of showers and tstorms FRI,
mainly due to more instability from greater heating, but still
20-25%.

Friday night, stronger showers and thunderstorms developing to our W
may reinvigorate over the area when the prefrontal trough interacts
with the seabreeze as it works over the Coastal Plain. However,
now that this timeframe is in the HiRes window, guidance has a
lot of the strongest convection weakening before it reaches our
inland tier of counties thanks to the midlevel ridge keeping a
chokehold on shear, preventing the cells from remaining too
organized overnight. Because of this, SPC has removed the
Marginal Risk of severe storms for the bulk of the state and the
FA, keeping us in General Thunder. Have strayed away from the
NBM 6hrly PoPs that have advertised LKLY with some of the HiRes
CAMs 3hrly PoPs which keeps the coastal plain area under 40-50%
PoPs for the first half of the night with lower PoPs (20-40%)
over the coast in the early morning hours SAT as momentum
carries the weakening showers and storms offshore.

Temps aloft "cool" slightly as heights aloft fall ahead of the front
and the stout mid level ridge begins to weaken, and this may support
at least a risk of higher coverage seabreeze convection on SAT,
particularly along the Crystal Coast seabreeze where LKLY PoPs
are now mentioned.

Early next week, higher than climo shower and storm chances are in
the forecast with the greater moisture content through the column
leading to PWATs in excess of 2in. Additionally, deep layer shear of
around 30-35kt along the front and low pressure system may
support a modest increase in the potential for organized
convection, some of which could be on the strong side. High
pressure returns late next week when high pressure builds in
behind a mid-week front.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR flight cats are forecast through the TAF period. Winds will
remain out of the SW at around 10-15 kt with scattered high
clouds and diurnal cu. SChc of isolated pop up showers in the
afternoon and early evening, but coverage will be limited with
little consensus among model suite for location, so no explicit
mention of precip in TAFs.

Outlook: Risk of showers/storms is quite low Thu and Fri, but
not 0. Better chance for afternoon/evening showers/storms this
weekend when a front crosses the region SAT, stalling to the S
and into early next week, with tempo reductions in vsby and/or
cigs accompanying the heavier showers and at least a chance of
MVFR CIGs directly along the front as it crosses the area early
SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
Rinse and repeat forecast. Current obs showing light winds over
far inland rivers increasing to 15-20G25kt over larger Sounds
and Coastal Waters. Thermal gradient will develop again this
afternoon allowing winds to increase across far Eern Pamlico
Sound and central coastal waters. Seas are generally 2-4 ft
with the weakening 1-2ft swell out of the E @ 8sec, with the
2-3ft wind waves out of the SW on top. Don`t expect much change
over the next 24 hours with steady SW winds forecast across our
area waters at 10-20 kts with gusts up to 25kt this afternoon
into tonight.

Outlook (FRI through MON): A typical summertime regime, with
swrly gradient flow maxing out between 21Z and 06Z each evening
leading to marginal 25+ kt winds gusts in the favored areas
mentioned above. Seas of 2-4ft will be common. The risk of
thunderstorms will increase late- week into early next week,
with best chances in the late afternoon to evening hours. A
front will cross Sat and stall to the S. Low pressure will
develop along the boundary and lift back Nward across the
Carolinas early next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for 06/12 (Friday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        95/2016  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   89/1922  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      98/1914  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   92/1952  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         95/1986  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    95/2016  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ195-196-
     199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EDT
     this evening for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for AMZ152-154.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CEB
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...CEB