Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

617
FXUS62 KMHX 182331
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
731 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The aviation forecast has been updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Above normal to near-record high temperatures and rain-free
conditions to continue through mid-week.

2) A frontal system approaches the area late week, bringing the
next appreciable chance of showers and thunderstorms

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Notably warm low-level thicknesses beneath an
anomalous mid-upper level ridging will continue to support above
to well above normal temperatures across the Carolinas through
Wednesday. Guidance shows similar low-level thicknesses each
afternoon yielding highs generally in the lower 90s across the
coastal plain but some warmer spots may reach mid 90s, remaining
just shy of records. It will be closest across the coastal
plain, however.

Additionally, despite increasing low-level moisture, ridging
aloft should provide sufficient subsidence to suppress
convective activity outside of perhaps a rogue shower or
thunderstorm where convergence is maximized along the seabreeze.
Still, probs of this occuring are low enough to keep out of the
forecast with this update.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The mid-upper level ridge is forecast to break
down some late-week and into the weekend. This should allow a
front to drop south into the Thursday into Friday. There
continues to be some uncertainty regarding whether or not the
front fully makes it through ENC, whether it stalls, or whether
it lifts quickly back north as a warm front. Given the strength
of the ridge, it stands to reason that the front will struggle
to get fully through ENC, and the forecast continues to
reflect this scenario. Then, ridging may try to build back late
in the weekend, which would favor the front lifting back north
as a warm front by early next week.

Based on the above, increasing moisture and instability along
the frontal zone should support an increased risk of showers and
thunderstorms. Probabilistic guidance shows a solid chance of
0.25"- 0.75" each day from Thursday into the weekend. However,
it should be noted that those amounts will be highly dependent
on the evolution of the frontal zone. Initially when the front
drops into the area, there may be just enough flow aloft to
support some thunderstorm organization and perhaps a marginal
risk of strong to severe thunderstorms. Machine learning and
analog guidance support this potential as well. However, no one
day stands out as having a higher risk of severe thunderstorms.

Notably high PWATs along the frontal zone should support higher
rainfall rates in convection. However, notable hydro impacts
are not expected due to the recent dry stretch and ongoing
drought conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Pred VFR conditions remain in place across all of ENC this
evening as the area remains under the influence of a ridge of
high pressure centered in the Atlantic. However, our attention
once again turns to later tonight as we are forecast to have a
rinse and repeat of last night, with patchy fog/low stratus
likely developing after midnight.

S-SW winds at 5-10 kts with gusts up around 15-20 kts early
this evening are forecast to ease and become light late tonight.
With clear skies also in place, a good radiational cooling
setup brings a fog and low stratus threat. Greatest chance at
seeing fog and low stratus looks to be across SW`rn zones and
along the Crystal Coast where highest HREF probs for low vis are
(around 40-60%). With this in mind, have MVFR vis developing
across the OAJ/EWN terminal and adjacent areas around 07-08Z and
then going to IFR vis between 08-09Z. Further north have
limited vis to just MVFR starting between 08-10Z. A SCT deck of
low stratus at 0.3 kft is also noted in all TAFs given potential
threat for low stratus. Vis and ceilings quickly lift with VFR
conditions then forecast after about 12-13Z.

Another rinse and repeat day on tap for Tue with mostly clear
skies outside of diurnal Cu field and breezy S`rly winds with
gusts up to 15-20 kts in the afternoon behind the incoming
seabreeze.

Outlook: A dry seabreeze pattern looks to continue through
Wednesday. Beyond then, a frontal boundary sagging south into
ENC is expected to bring an increasing risk of SHRA, TSRA, and
sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
A summer-like pattern continues through the middle of the week,
with a daily building of winds to 10-20kt each afternoon and
evening as the thermal gradient tightens. This will especially
be the case for the inland rivers and sounds and the nearby
coastal waters within 20nm of the coast. Seas will continue
around 2-3ft, potentially up to 4 ft during the afternoon and
evening.

Outlook: A frontal boundary is forecast to sag south into the
area late-week, then meander around the area through the
upcoming weekend. This leads to lower confidence regarding winds
and seas, but especially wind direction. In general, the risk
of 25kt+ winds appears low during this time ahead of the front,
with slightly higher chances of seeing 25+kt gusts behind the
front. There will be an increased risk of thunderstorms along
the front as well.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SK/RJ
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...SK/RJ