Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

675
FXUS62 KMHX 020706
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
206 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
SCAs trimmed slightly with winds not expected to be as strong
today.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Light rain possible today and tomorrow (20-50%) with highest
chances over northern NC (50-60%).

3) Well above normal conditions return midweek through this
weekend with high pressure ridging offshore.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Behind a backdoor cold front cold air damming
will setup today due to the building surface high to our
northeast. This will keep cool and overcast conditions with
breezy northeast winds, limiting highs to the low to mid 50s.
Chances for light rain (20-50%) will increase this afternoon and
linger into tomorrow, driven by a few shortwaves moving through
aloft and a developing coastal trough. Highest chances for rain
will be along and north of US 64 (50-60%). CAD (and low clouds)
looks to break down tomorrow afternoon with temps rebounding
into the mid to upper 60s


KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong ridge of high pressure will set up over
the SE US and eventually off the Atlantic coast later this week
and into the weekend. This will bring well above normal
conditions to the Carolinas with highs reaching the upper 70s
to low 80s inland, and upper 60s to low 70s along the coast. The
immediate coast will remain cooler due to still very cold
ocean/sound temps. Given the sharp temperature contrast between
the cold waters and warm land, there`s potential for a few
isolated showers to develop along any river/sound/sea breezes in
the afternoons.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR/MVFR cloud deck spreading south along/east of hwy 17 behind
the cold front which is now located near Cape Fear. IFR probs
are highest along the immediate coast, with MVFR further inland
impacting EWN and OAJ. west of hwy 17, mostly VFR conditions are
expected through the night, although brief drops to MVFR are
possible for ISO between 7-9Z. A tempo MVFR group has been put
in to cover this. Behind this cold front, NE winds around 10
knots can gust to 15-20 knots at times inland, increasing to
sustained 15-20 kt gust 25-30 kt along the coast. Clouds will
fill in inland as well after sunrise, with the entire CWA at
overcast MVFR skies through the entire day Monday. Monday night,
a shortwave moves into the mid- atlantic and brings lower
ceilings and light rain, with all sites forecasted to reach IFR
levels.

Outlook: Probabilistic guidance shows a 50-70% chance of IFR
conditions from Monday night into Tuesday. Periods of -RA look
to accompany the low CIGs as well. Improving aviation conditions
are expected by the middle of next week. As we get into late
week, moist southerly flow moves into the region as high sits
offshore. If radiational cooling conditions occur during the
night thanks to clear skies and calm winds, fog potential will
be worth monitoring.

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft conditions have developed across most of the marine
area early this morning behind a cold front. Small craft
conditions will continue through much of the day, with improving
winds expected by early tonight, while hazardous seas linger
into tomorrow.

Winds will generally be NE at 15-25 kts today with gusts to
around 30 kts. Winds will weaken tonight to around 10-20 kts as
a coastal trough offshore pivots into the nearshore waters.
Winds will remain 10-15 kts tomorrow but wind direction will
vary from NE to SE depending on the location of the trough.

Seas will continue to increase this morning and eventually reach
5-8 ft. Seas will then be mostly 4-7 ft tonight, with 6 ft seas
lingering along the nearshore waters north of Ocracoke through
most of tomorrow.

Outlook: Pleasant boating conditions are expected for the rest
of the week and into this weekend. Winds generally be 10-20 kts
out of the S/SW as high pressure remains offshore.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ131-
     137-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SGK
AVIATION...RJ
MARINE...SGK