Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

910
FXUS62 KMHX 081905
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
205 PM EST Sun Nov 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Small Craft Advisories issued for waters north of Ocracoke Inlet
Monday morning and afternoon.

Aviation Disco Updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cooler, drier, and more seasonable behind the frontal
passage this weekend.

2) Well below normal temperatures expected late next week and
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Cooler airmass continues to build into the area
behind yesterday`s cold front as high pressure expands in from
the west. Today will be the coolest day of the week until next
weekend (see the next key message) with highs in the low to mid
60s. With a second cold front moving through tonight, it will be
difficult for winds to remain calm, and as a result radiational
cooling should be reduced. No widespread frost is expected
tonight, although some patchy frost can`t be ruled out in
sheltered locations.

Monday night continues to look like the best candidate for more
widespread frost as skies remain clear and winds inland will
likely be calm as the high crests overhead. Continued nudging
overnight lows down from NBM, closer to NBM 10th percentile.
Added patchy frost for some inland locales Monday night. Tuesday
night there remains a bit of uncertainty on how effectively we
radiationally cool as the forecast calls for higher cloud cover
than Monday night. With that being said, decided to stick with
NBM for now. However, if we end up being clear Tuesday night,
another round of frost is possible.

Beyond this period, guidance continues to depict an
increasingly unsettled pattern as complex mid-level low deepens
over the eastern CONUS and likely drives coastal low development
off the east coast. Evolution and strength of the low remain
uncertain, but it will at least bring our best chances of rain
for the period and breezier westerly winds across the Outer
Banks. Stay tuned for more details in the coming days.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Guidance continues to strongly hint at
unseasonable cold temperatures next weekend behind the low
pressure system. While there is inherent uncertainty 7 days out,
CPC does have a slight risk of much below normal temperatures
for our coastal plain counties next weekend. This will be worth
monitoring for any freeze headlines, as the end of the growing
season is Nov 25 for our land forecast zones.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure expands over terminals from the west with low
departing to NE. VFR flight cats with generally clear skies and
light winds in place through today. Dry front crosses late
tonight without any significant impacts, and this should help
reduce the chance of shallow fog formation as winds struggle to
remain calm. Monday we will be decently mixed and we could see
gusts approaching 20 knots out of the NW in the late morning and
afternoon hours.

Outlook: An extended period of VFR conditions is expected with much
drier airmass and high pressure over the region through midweek.

&&

.MARINE...
NW winds 5-15 kt today, with seas 3-5 ft. Main feature of
interest is a second dry cold front expected to transit the
waters tonight into early Monday morning, with guidance
trending upward in SW to W winds ahead of the front at 15-20 kt
with higher gusts. This surge also looks marginal for gusts, but
considering higher antecedent seas it will likely be enough to
boost seas back above 6 feet for much of Monday. Therefore,kept
the SCA for the waters north of Ocracoke Inlet.

Outlook: Benign boating conditions expected through the period
with NW winds backing W to SW by mid-week ahead of the next
storm system expected to impact the region beyond Wednesday.
Magnitude of impacts remains uncertain but at least SCA
conditions and elevated seas are likely for most waters into the
weekend.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MS/RJ
AVIATION...RJ
MARINE...MS/RJ