Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

625
FXUS62 KMHX 020549
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1249 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warm with showers and thunderstorms possible Wednesday-
Friday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Little change to the forecast reasoning with
medium range guidance continuing to converge on a solution for
the mid to late-week period, but notable differences remain.
Where guidance is fairly well clustered is with an amplified
upper trough that will be shifting east out of the Central U.S.
While there is still some potential for a cutoff low to develop,
most guidance have now trended towards more of a progressive
and open wave as it moves through the Eastern U.S. Guidance
differs on the timing, which leads to differences in
precipitation placement, temperatures, etc. But, most guidance
is now centering on the best chance of showers and thunderstorms
coming Thursday and/or Friday. Of note, some guidance are
showing anomalous moisture and higher-than-normal instability
for early November. This would support the potential of some
higher rainfall rates and totals should this materialize. It may
even support at least a marginal risk of strong to severe
thunderstorms. While there is some synoptic support for this
potential, machine learning guidance doesn`t show that strong of
a signal. It`s something worth keeping an eye on as the
evolution of the upper level, and surface, pattern become more
clear.

The other aspect of the forecast that appears to be coming more
clear this week is the potential for above to well above normal
temperatures, especially Wednesday and Thursday. While record
highs may not be broken, warming low-level thicknesses in
advance of the approaching trough should support highs warming
into the 70s, with some low 80s possible inland. Meanwhile,
overnight lows are forecast to be closer to our normal highs for
this time of year. Some record warm lows may be in jeopardy.
For reference, normal highs are around 70 in early November,
with normal lows in the 40s inland and 50s along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecast confidence is high over the next 24 hours.

Widespread mid and high clouds will accompany a slow-moving
upper level trough as it continues to advance east across ENC
through Monday. Some -SHRA may accompany this feature as well,
especially on Monday (when moisture and lift will be maximized).
Significant reductions to VIS are not expected with any SHRA
activity.

Overnight, guidance continue to favor VFR conditions and no FG
or stratus development at any TAF site. By Monday evening and
night, the probability for reduced VIS in BR/MIFG/FG increases
to about 30- 50% as a moistening easterly low-level flow begins
to take hold across the area. Widespread, impactful FG appears
unlikely during that time, though.

Outlook: Coastal troughing near ENC may support periods of low
CIGs and SHRA along the coast, mainly impacting KMRH. With
increased low- level moisture, there may also be a nightly risk
of BR/MIFG/FG at all TAF sites. Later in the week, a slow-moving
frontal system may lead to a risk of TSRA and a more
appreciable risk of sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
A pinched surface gradient remains in place between a coastal
troughing offshore and a strong surface high anchored over the
Mid-Atlantic States. Latest obs show NE-E winds 10-20 kt gusting
25-30 kt across the outer central and southern waters, with seas
3-5 ft nearshore and 4-6 ft offshore. Gradients will continue to
grad relax overnight into Monday.

Outlook: Coastal troughing is forecast to remain in place
through at least the middle of the week, with the strongest
gradient and highest winds focused across the central and
southern waters. The coastal trough may drift inland by
Wednesday with more of a dominant easterly flow developing for
most waters. The flow then begins to become southeasterly by
Thursday in the wake of the inland-advancing coastal trough.
Guidance continue to keep probs for 25kt+ winds low through
Thursday. However, there is a broad signal for low pressure
development over the Southwest Atlantic later in the week.
Should this occur, there may be an accompanying risk of 6 ft+
long-period swell development.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RM/CQD/SK
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...RM/CQD/SK