Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

778
FXUS62 KMHX 301038
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
638 AM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Extended slight chance of shower and thunderstorm mention into
Monday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Locally dense fog and low stratus likely this morning,
especially across the coastal plain.

2) Stalled front over the area dissipates today with less
coverage of showers and storms today focused along sea and sound
breezes.

3) Increasing mid-level ridging next week cuts down on rain
chances but brings a return of uncomfortable heat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Weak remnant front is dissipating early this
morning as high pressure gradually builds in from the north and
west. Low levels remain very saturated and local observations
show a growing area of fog and low stratus developing over
central and eastern NC. Coverage is likely to expand into dawn
hours, and some locally dense fog is possible especially west of
Highway 17 after 4-5 AM. A DFA may need to be considered for
these counties later this AM.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Front will completely wash out later this
morning, leaving weak high pressure in control and convective
chances largely dictated by sea and sound breezes today.
Aforementioned fog and low stratus will be slow to dissipate
owing to weak mixing, which will probably hamper instability
recovery. Still, guidance hints at MLCAPEs at around 1000-1500
J/kg by afternoon which should support isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms into the evening hours. Activity is
expected to quickly dissipate by sunset.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Shower and thunderstorm coverage wanes early
this week as upper ridging builds into the region from the
west. Cannot completely rule out an isolated shower or storm
through the period along sea and sound breezes although activity
will likely be short-lived. The main story will be the building
heat with highs expected to climb into the 90s early next week
and peaking in the mid to upper 90s as we move into the middle
of the week. Heat headlines may be needed as early as Wednesday
with forecast heat indices climbing above 105, especially along
the coast and inland counties along and south of US70.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
# --- AMD NOT SKED has been appended to EWN TAFs as the site is
not transmitting through normal channels. The site is still
reporting via telephone so it will be monitored, but not as
frequently as when it is completely operational. The next
closest ASOS is at Cherry Point (KNKT). --- #

Fog and low stratus entrenched across a large portion of the
coastal plain and central NC this morning as remnant frontal
boundary continues to sit over the area. Weak winds today means
a slow return to VFR for many spots this morning, likely not
until 14-15z. Once VFR returns, focus turns to renewed round of
convection, although coverage will be less than yesterday and
quickly diminish by sunset.

Airmass changes little tonight, so another round of fog and low
stratus appears probable early Mon morning although area of best
coverage remains a point of uncertainty. For now, opted to leave
this round of vis restrictions out of TAFs.

Outlook: High pressure builds in from the west next week resulting
in more benign flying conditions. Iso shower or storm cannot be
ruled out along area sea and sound breezes.

&&

.MARINE...
A front stalled across the waters will continue dissipate
today with light and variable winds mainly less than 10 kt and
seas around 1-3 ft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
persist south of Cape Hatteras into this morning. Similar
pattern expected Sun night into Monday, albeit with more
isolated coverage of convection Mon AM.

Outlook: High pressure builds in from the west early this week
allowing for more benign marine conditions and lower chances for
precip. Although SCA conditions are not expected, with building
heat inland thermal gradient winds out of the SW will return
starting mid-week each afternoon and evening at 10-15 kt with a
few gusts up to 20 kt possible.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MS
AVIATION...MS
MARINE...MS