Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

049
FXUS62 KMHX 100949
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
549 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Issued SCAs for late this afternoon and into tonight for select
ENC waters.

Aviation disco updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Risk of dangerous heat late this week.

2) Pattern expected to become more conducive for showers and
thunderstorms for the weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Very warm low-level thicknesses are forecast to
overspread the Carolinas from mid-week on as we get into a WSW
low- level flow pattern. NBM guidance continues too warm with
temps, however, records will still be in jeopardy, esp FRI (see
climate section below for record high info). The caveats each
day will be the coverage of convection (see KEY MESSAGE 2 for
additional details), and the potential for high
clouds/convective debris. Both of those factors can have
significant impacts on the temperature forecast each day.
Regardless, persistent SWerly flow will allow dewpoints to
steadily rise through the 70s each day. This will lead to higher
humidity and increasing "feels like" temperatures even on the
days with convection/clouds. The chances for afternoon
convection remain Thu and Fri, but coverage is expected to be
limited. FRI will start already relatively warm with early
morning MinTs 10deg above Normal, and low level thicknesses will
continue to increase. Probabilistic guidance currently shows a
50-70% chance of exceeding 95 degrees for inland areas away from
the coast. This combined with dewpoints in the low 70s suggests
a widespread area of AppTs of ~105deg. This setup could lead to
the first heat headlines of the summer season. The NWS`
experimental Heat Risk guidance shows much of ENC in the major
category, with a few areas nearing the extreme category.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Synoptic pattern is expected to shift towards
something more favorable for convection across ENC esp this
weekend with a weak front crossing the FA SAT and stalling to
the S of the area, and into early next week when troughing
aloft develops, opening moisture transport from the Gulf.
However, this shouldn`t be read as a high coverage of
thunderstorms each day. In fact most of the day will be rain
free, but as is typical in convective season in ENC, hit and
miss storms are going to dot the area each afternoon through
early evening.

Firstly, an upper level shortwave is forecast to move through
the Mid- Atlantic and Carolinas late tonight and push offshore
in the early morning THU. This wave is forecast to interact with
a moistening and gradually destabilizing airmass, supporting
clusters of convection from VA S into the Piedmont of NC.
Locally, temps aloft will be very warm, with 850 temps of
15-20C. This will have a tendency to support some residual
capping, and may tend to lead to a weakening trend with any
convection that approaches our area from the W/NW. Given the
increased forcing with the wave, though, it stands to reason
that at least some weak, elevated convection could survive into
the area, and the forecast reflects this potential for WED
evening for a potential weakening MCS with 30% chances for
showers or storms. Very warm temps aloft may continue to cap a
greater coverage of convection into FRI, and thus afternoon
spotty rain chances are only 20%, so slightly below climo.

Friday night, stronger showers and thunderstorms developing to
our W may reinvigorate over the area when the prefrontal trough
interacts with the seabreeze as works over the Coastal Plain.
Some of these storms may be strong enough to carry strong winds
and maybe some hail, and as such, SPC has outlined the bulk of
the state of NC in a marginal risk (lvl 1/5) for severe
thunderstorms.

Temps aloft "cool" slightly as heights aloft fall ahead of the
front and the stout mid level ridge begins to weaken, and this
may support at least a risk of higher coverage seabreeze
convection.

Early next week, higher than climo shower and storm chances are
in the forecast with the greater moisture content through the
column leading to PWATs in excess of 2in. Additionally, deep
layer shear of around 30-35kt along the front may support a
modest increase in the potential for organized convection, some
of which could be on the strong side.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Fun nocturnal TAFs tonight with increased moisture compared to
previous nights potentially brining an end to the long period of
VFR flight cats we`ve had for the last few days. Cirri likely
to plague skies through the period in light south to SWerly
flow, which should preclude fog formation for the bulk of the
area. Where winds go light, mainly over SWern corners of the
FA, fog could develop. Any fog that does develop is expected to
be patchy, but could be enough to bounce VIS to MVFR or IFR
levels. As such, have introduced a TEMPO IFR BR group for OAJ,
though MVFR VIS may persist longer. There is a signal for low
stratus (MVFR with a low risk of IFR level) to advect from S to
N in a pool of low- level moisture, most prominent along and
west of the I-95 corridor, which could threaten inland TAF sites
PGV/ISO. Will continue sct mention of MVFR decks for these
sites, but will monitor conditions closely with tempo IFR groups
potentially needed. Any stratus likely to burn off by 14z with
increasing southwesterly flow after sunrise today, gusting up
to 15 kt at times in the afternoon. Surface trough and attendant
mid-level disturbance will pose a threat for sct showers and
thunderstorms after sunset and into tonight over Nern rtes. Have
introduced VCSH mention for PGV this cycle.

Outlook (Thu through Mon): Risk of showers/storms is quite low
Thu and Fri, but not 0. Better chance for afternoon/evening
showers/storms this weekend into early next week, with tempo
reductions in vsby and/or cigs accompanying the heavier
showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Entering a more typical summertime pattern through the end of
the work-week with high pressure centered offshore. SWerly winds
10-15kt and seas 2-3ft@ predominantly 8-9sec. Thermal gradient
leads to increase in nearshore winds, strongest over Eern
Pamlico Sound, Croatan/Roanoke Sounds and adjacent coastal
waters around Cape Hatteras and NOBX. SCAs have been issued for
these areas. SChc to Chc of showers and thunderstorms crossing
Nern inside waters after sunset and pushing offshore after
midnight

Outlook (Thu through Mon): A typical summertime regime, with
swrly gradient flow maxing out between 21Z and 06Z each evening
leading to marginal 25+ kt winds gusts in the favored areas
mentioned above. Seas of 3-5ft will be common. The risk of
thunderstorms will increase late- week into early next week,
with best chances in the late afternoon to evening hours. A
front will cross SAT and stall to the S. Low pressure will
develop along the boundary and lift back Nward across the
Carolinas early next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for 06/12 (Friday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        95/2016  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   89/1922  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      98/1914  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   92/1952  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         95/1986  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    95/2016  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM EDT
     Thursday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT
     Thursday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT
     Thursday for AMZ152-154.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CEB
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...CEB