Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

080
FXUS62 KMHX 051114
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
614 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Front has passed through the area with weak high pressure
wedging in over ENC in its wake. A low pressure system will
develop and travel along the boundary stalled offshore to the
south, impacting the Carolinas this morning into Saturday. The
front will remain stalled off the southern NC coast behind this
system leading to unsettled weather through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 0200 Friday...

Key Messages

 - A brief wintry mix possible, but not likely, across extreme
   NW sections of ENC Friday morning

 - Below normal temperatures to continue into this weekend

Cold front has sagged south of the FA, currently located south
of Cape Fear near the SC/NC border. T/Tds behind the front are
less than impressive than previously forecast, which has led to
a higher MinT forecast, as well as a further decrease in
likelihood of any wintry precip, which was already low to begin
with. Overcast skies as moisture streams overhead from the Gulf
on the Eern side of trough aloft from Wern MEX. Rain has been
held at bay through the first half of tonight as sub-cloud layer
air started the evening fairly dry, as evident on the 00Z MHX
sounding. A weak area of low pressure is forecast to develop
along the stalled front just off the GA coast, scooting quickly
east to the south of ENC today. North of the stalled front, a
quick- hitting round of WAA-driven precipitation is expected to
overspread the area late in the early morning hours through this
evening. In addition to the strong WAA, strong isentropic
ascent and modest low-mid level frontogenesis within a deep
layer of moisture should support a period of moderate
precipitation rates today, with liquid equivalent amounts of
0.50"-1.50" expected. The highest rainfall totals (amts
approaching one in) are expected along the immediate coast
where the greatest moisture and strongest low- level forcing
will overlap. Inland areas W of HWY17 are forecast to receive
~half in.

Given the Ts behind the front are a solid 5-7deg warmer than
previously expected, the likelihood of precip freezing and
sticking has gone down from their already low chances. For now,
the forecast will reflect a categorical chance of light to
moderate rain with an overly gracious SChc of snow mixing in
across extreme Martin Co for only an hr or two just before
sunrise this morning, allowing for possibility of CAA through
the lower levels really ramping up. This is a cutback in both
duration and areal coverage of the wintry mix.

By this afternoon, troughing offshore continues to sharpen
eventually becoming a weak low pressure system working NEward
along the stalled boundary to the S, passing ~60 SE of Cape Fear
around 18Z, and ~50mi SE of Cape Hatteras by 21Z. Precip wanes
from NW to SE through the evening as the low reaches our
latitude. MaxTs remain cool inland under OVC skies and NEerly
flow, low to mid 40s inland, low to mid 50s Inner and Outer
Banks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 0245 Friday...

Low will continue departing to NE through the period starting
~60-80mi E of the coast somewhere near the NC/VA border. Some
light rain/drizzle lingers along the immediate coast with
moisture continuing to lift over the strengthening high
pressure cool wedge entering the Carolinas from the N. Light
winds back to become more NWerly as the low pulls away.
Overnight Lows in the mid to upper 30s inland, mid to upper 40s
coast.

Same boundary is forecast to remain stalled just south of ENC
on Saturday. Given the close proximity, and various upper level
waves moving through the region, there`s the potential for areas
of very light precipitation at times, mostly across the Crystal
Coast and through Hatteras. All precip is expected to remain
liquid with delayed arrival of subfreezing temps leading to a
"cold air chasing the moisture" scenario.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 0300 Friday...

Key Messages

 - Lull in wet weather Sunday
 - Another round of rain starting Sunday night into Monday
 - Cold front passes Monday
 - Dry and warming through midweek

High pressure center reaches the Carolinas from the N on Sunday,
providing a brief break in the wet weather. Partial clearing of
skies with a decrease in moisture and increasing heights allow
MaxTs to reach back into the low 50s Sunday. The start of next
week looks to remain unsettled along the eastern half of the CWA
with lingering PoPs with passage of cold front expected Monday
and an area of low pressure passing well offshore. Dry
conditions across the board return Tuesday as high pressure
builds back in at the SFC behind Monday`s front and trough axis
aloft finally pushes E of the coast. Highs will be in the mid
40s to low 50s MON/TUE with widespread sub- freezing MinTs away
from the immediate coast each night, coldest MON night/TUE am
with lows well into the 20s, to around freezing along the
mainland coast. Warming into the mid to upper 50s WED and THU.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 615 AM Fri...

Key Messages

- Prolonged period of sub-VFR conditions expected today and
  tonight, with periods of light to moderate rain.

VFR conditions currently across the terminals, with conditions
gradually deteriorating this morning. Light to moderate rain and
IFR/LIFR cigs will overspread the area today. Rain will grad
taper off from west to east late this afternoon and this
evening. However, expect sub-VFR conditions to continue with
low stratus and areas of light rain, drizzle and fog.

Outlook: Widespread sub-VFR conditions likely to continue
Saturday with periods to drizzle and rain. VFR conditions likely
to return Saturday night.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 0300 Friday...

Key Messages

 - Rain lasting into Saturday evening
 - Elevated winds and seas through this evening
 - Lull latter half of this weekend with brief high pressure SUN
 - N-NEerly winds strengthen again early next week, possibility
   of Gale still exists, but trending downward

Cold front has passed well S of area waters and is expected to
stall south of NC tonight. A weak area of low pressure is then
forecast to ride along the front today, moving away from the
NOBX tonight. The tightening pressure gradient north of the low
appears supportive of a period of 20-25kt winds and elevated
seas, mainly north of Ocracoke Inlet. While a bit marginal, the
setup still appears worth keeping a Small Craft Advisory in
effect for the central and northern coastal waters through
this evening. Guidance did trend down with winds, though, and
the forecast reflects a slight adjustment down. Lighter winds
are then expected on Saturday as high pressure builds in.

Seas are forecast to build to 4-6 ft north of Ocracoke Inlet
as winds continue to strengthen. South of there, seas of 3-5ft
are expected. For all waters, seas should lay down to 2-4ft by
late Saturday.

Outlook: Expecting rain through Saturday with stalled front to
the south, and plentiful moisture lifting over the incoming high
pressure. Sunday will be best boating day of weekend with drying
trend and Nerly winds decreasing. Conditions deteriorate once
again early next week with FROPA expected MON while a low
pressure system also passing well offshore. Guidance has backed
off on depth of MON`s low and keeps it further offshore than
previously forecast. While winds are still expected to
strengthen on the backside of MON`s low, the probability of
Gales is on the downward trend. SCAs remain likely over all ENC
waters, inside and outside, with Gales possibility becoming
confined to warmer Gulfstream waters offshore.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for AMZ152-
     154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CEB
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...CQD
MARINE...CEB