Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

164
FXUS62 KMHX 030725
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
325 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant chances with this forecast package.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dangerously hot and humid conditions through the 4th of July
weekend into early next week.

2) A more active pattern takes shape next week, bringing rain
back into the forecast early to at least the middle of next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Heat and humidity will build into ENC from the
north and west today into early next week. High impact heat and
humidity is expected, as the peak of it will be during the busy
4th of July holiday weekend (Saturday through Monday) with
highs expected to reach well into the 90s inland, possibly
reaching 100 in some locales, with upper 80s to mid 90s beaches.
The combination of the heat and humidity will push heat indices
towards the 105-110 degree range or slightly higher this
weekend. Overnight lows will also be warm due to the increased
Tds, with MinTs around 80 near the coast, and mid 70s interior.

A Heat Advisory remains in effect for much of ENC today, only
locations not included in the advisory are Hatteras and Ocracoke
Islands, and immediate coastal zones of the Crystal Coast,
where the seabreeze circ is expected to keep advisory criteria
just out of the forecast, but MaxAppTs in these zones will still
be hot,in the 90s to lower 100 degree range.

An Extreme Heat Watch also remains in effect for SAT in zones
generally N of HWY70 where MaxAppT values reach into the
110-115deg range. Another Heat Advisory WILL be needed for the
Holiday and remain probable SUN through MON, possibly lingering
into TUE of next week.

NWS probabilistic Heat Risk values peak Saturday into Monday in
the major range with some extreme risk areas inland. The
probability for extreme heat risk has increased slightly on
Saturday with highest probs around 60-80% across northern
counties. The probabilities remain similar Sunday through
Monday peaking around 40-60% across northern sections and
20-40% south with the compounding days and little relief during
the nighttime periods. Those sensitive to heat and anyone
planning on spending ample amounts of time outside this weekend
into early next week should monitor the forecast trends. With
the ridge of high pressure overhead, a cap will bring little to
no shower or thunderstorm relief through Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Return to a pattern of increased shower and
tstorms chances next week. A series of shortwaves, inland
troughing, and a very slow moving backdoor front will eventually
cross the FA mid-week leading to a diurnally driven, summer-
time PoP forecast through much of the long-term period. TUE
currently has the highest PoPs (50-70% TUE afternoon) when
moisture peaks ahead of the front and a pair of shortwave
troughs aloft traverse NE CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Pred VFR expected through the TAF period with high pressure
dominating. Cannot rule out shallow ground fog developing
during the pre-dawn hours at a few locations but should have
little impact to operations and dissipate quickly after sunrise.
Guidance showing southern sections (inc. OAJ) having the best
chance of seeing reduced vsbys this morning.

Outlook (Saturday through Tuesday): Dry weather is expected to
prevail with pred VFR conditions through Sunday, but could see
patchy fog during the early morning hours. Upper ridge breaks
down Monday with shortwave energy bringing increasing chances
for showers and thunderstorms and sub-VFR conditions both Mon
and Tue.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs show S to SW winds 5-10 kt with seas 2-3 ft, which
will continue through the morning. Thermal gradients tighten
some this afternoon and evening with winds increasing to around
10-15 kt with seas around 2-3 ft with up to 4 ft possible across
the outer zones.

Outlook (Saturday through Monday): The Bermuda high remains
dominant into the weekend with light winds 5-15 kt and seas
around 2-3 ft. Bermuda high pulls offshore late Sunday into
Monday with a front slowly dropping south across the Mid-
Atlantic serving to tighten gradients a bit and expect winds to
increase to around 10-20 kt and seas building to 3-5 ft.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for 7/3 (Friday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        98/1954  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   93/2014  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville     100/2019  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   92/1998  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston        102/1954  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    96/2019  (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 7/4 (Saturday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        95/2023  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   94/2020  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      99/2002  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   93/1997  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston        104/1902  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    98/1993  (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 7/5 (Sunday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        99/1990  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   92/2018  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville     100/2002  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   93/2020  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston        104/1902  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    97/1990  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198-203.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for NCZ029-044>047-080-094-193.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SK/CEB
AVIATION...SK/CEB
MARINE...SK/CEB