Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

327
FXUS62 KMHX 211900
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
300 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Lowered pops from NBM values on Tuesday.

Lowered max T`s on NOBX through the forecast period.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Only small chances for showers or storms early week, with
best chances Tuesday afternoon and evening with frontal passage.
Dry again for Wed into Thu. Next precip chance is Fri.

3) Becoming hot and humid again next week with highs in the 90s,
and heat indices in the lower 100s each afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...High pres shifts offshore on Mon while another
shortwave swings ewrd acrs the Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic
region. This will drag a cold front into the Southeast, but as
is typical this time of year, the front gets hung up or at least
slows down before reaching ENC tomorrow. The fcst has trended
drier with 00z model suite Monday with only slgt chc (20%)
inland. More breezy on Mon as thermal gradient inc in addition
to the cold front moving into the Piedmont. Some models indicate
some weakening MCS activity arriving into interior ENC Mon
evening, but this activity running into dry air should limit
chances to no higher than 30-40% Mon evening and mainly for our
nwrn FA. Best chance for a storm would be from around 8pm to
2am. Any storms that enter our nwrn counties could be on the
stronger side as some renegade instability and shear of 20+ kt
will be found here, with strong wind gusts the main threat.

The aforementioned stalled front will then get kicked through
ENC as a backdoor cold front Tue evening as stronger shrtwave
exits the Mid Atlantic coast. Have cont to fcst lower than NBM
pops, as convective coverage will be more sct in nature. Have
retained the likely pops from previous forecast to the nern
zones, where best convergence and forcing will be for more
widespread thundershowers. No severe expected as shear is
lacking. Further inland, the chances decrease to around 40% with
lack of appreciable forcing and a bit more dry air in place.
Front will sweep offshore Tue evening, taking any precip with
it. Dry conditions return for Wed into Thu with high pres
dominating. Next chance of showers and storms on Friday as next
shortwave swings through the sern CONUS.

KEY MESSAGE 2...With the return swrly flow, hot and humid
conditions combine to produce uncomfortably warm heat indices,
though most likely remaining below heat adv thresholds, with
readings in the lower 100s each day early to late week. Brief
break from the heat expected on Wed behind the fropa, when
afternoon highs only in the low 80s OBX zones to upper 80s
inland with lowered RH`s as well. Heating back up Thu into Fri
as return swrly flow returns.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Pred VFR conditions expected through the period. High pressure
shifts offshore today, with strengthening sea breeze in the
afternoon bringing southerly wind gusts upwards of around 15 kt
in it`s wake as it progresses inland. SSW winds inc further on
Monday afternoon as tight thermal gradient develops along with
inland trough ahead of cold front. Gusts upwards of 20kt by
afternoon. May be a isolated shower or two along the inland
seabreeze, but not enough of a chance to mention in the TAF fcst
attm.

Outlook (Tue through Fri): Best bet for showers and storms will
be Mon night, mainly for KPGV as some convection from the west
may sneak into ENC in the evening hours. Front will sweep
through Tue afternoon and evening, with another shot for
afternoon showers and storms, esp along the eastern termainals.
Winds turn nrly to nerly behind the front Tue evening with any
precip threat ending. Dry again for Wed and Thu with high pres
rebuilding. Next precip chance on Fri with another system
approaching.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs show very weak flow with high pres in vicinty. The
flow becomes onshore, or south to southeast this afternoon as
high shifts offshore with speeds of 10-15 kt. The winds inc late
Monday as cold front approaches and tightening thermal gradient
builds, with ssw winds of 15-20 kt, nearing 25 kt late Monday
afternoon.

Outlook (Mon night through Fri): Aforementioned approaching cold
front produce gusty sswrly winds Mon night, peaking between 9pm
and 3am. Will hold off on any SCA issuance, as gusts around 25
kt will be sporadic, and last generally only a few hours, as
well as seas remaining below 6 ft for the coastal waters. Most
likely areas to see some 25 kt gusts are across the now very
warm Pamlico and Croatan/Roanoke sounds, as well as the
adjacent nearshore areas of the coastal watersThe front will
move through the waters Tue night with flow becoming N-NE 5-15
kt behind it. Return swrly winds for Thu into Fri though looks
to remain below SCA conditions.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CQD/TL
AVIATION...CQD/TL
MARINE...CQD/TL