Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

507
FXUS62 KMHX 122323
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
723 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Heat Advisory issued for Thursday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Hot and humid conditions will continue through Friday
bringing high probabilities for major heat risk impacts over
much of the area.

2) Lower rain chances Thursday, increasing for Friday into the
Weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1..Highs in the low 90s inland and mid 80s across
the OBX expected this afternoon. Combined with dewpoints in the
upper 60s to low 70s we are observing heat indices between
95-100F this afternoon. While this is below heat advisory
criteria, it will still remain rather hot today.

Expecting hot and humid conditions to continue into the end of
the workweek across ENC. Low level thicknesses will remain
around 1430m and based off a local climatological study, this
is forecast to result in highs in the mid to upper 90s across
the inland areas and upper 80s to low 90s along the OBX and
coast Thurs/Fri before a front impacts the region Fri evening
into Sat resulting in cooler temperatures this weekend. Temps
may briefly warm up once again early next week as well.

Heat indices are expected to peak around 105-110F Thurs and Fri
with a Heat Advisory in effect Thursday for most of ENC. A Heat
Advisory will likely be needed Friday as well unless if the
forecast changes substantially. We encourage anyone planning on
spending alot of time outdoors this week to take proper
precautions and stay hydrated.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Low precip chances continue for today and
Thursday, with one or two isolated showers possible along the
sea breeze. While we still expect several shortwaves to ride
along the northern periphery of an upper level ridge centered
across the Gulf Coast this week, a mix of cloud cover today and
some subsidence aloft today and into the early part of tomorrow,
may put a damper on precip chances with any MCS`s that ride
along the surface ridging remaining to our west today. Because
of this have only kept SChc PoPs along the sea breeze this
afternoon as a result. Looks like shortwave tomorrow evening
will approach the mid-atlantic, bringing a slight chance of
weakening showers and tstorms into the region. Recent model
trends suggest the best energy remains to our north, and as a
result we may avoid all of the activity tomorrow night. However,
given low predictability of MCS`s, elected to add Schc PoPs
across the CWA late Thursday.

A stronger northern stream shortwave is progged to push across
the Mid-Atlantic Friday with the attendant cold front pushing
into the area Fri evening into Sat bringing the best forcing
and chances showers and storms across the area. High pressure
build into the area over the weekend bringing bringing a drier
airmass and minimal chances for storms. However, a second
frontal boundary looks to approach next week which could once
again bring increased chances for showers and storms early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
* VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Thursday
  morning

* Sub-VFR conditions will be possible in TSRA Thursday
  afternoon

A more stable and drier airmass in place should keep the risk
of SHRA and TSRA low through the remainder of the evening and
overnight hours. Any TSRA complexes upstream across the Ohio
Valley should stay west and southwest of ENC if they hold
together. On Thursday, moisture and instability begin to rebuild
across the area, enough so that a few TSRA should manage to
develop on the seabreeze. Where TSRA develop, there will be a
risk of sub-VFR conditions and gusty/erratic winds.

Outlook (Thursday night through Monday): Primarily VFR
conditions and light winds are expected into Fri, but there
will be isolated to widely scattered convection possible each
afternoon and evening that could bring periods of sub-VFR
conditions. A cold front is progged to push through the area
late Friday/Friday night that will bring the best chances for
prolonged sub-VFR conditions. VFR conditions return Sun as high
pressure briefly builds into the area. In addition, there is a
low end chance for patchy ground fog to develop each morning
with best chances in areas that saw significant rainfall the
previous afternoon/evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Benign boating conditions are expected through at least Fri
morning across ENC. W-SW winds around 5-15 kt during the morning
hours, will increase each afternoon to around 10-20 kt and
become S-SW today, Thurs, and again on Fri as temps warm inland
bringing a tightening of gradients between the thermal trough
inland and the offshore high. Gusts may approach SCA conditions
across the Pamlico, Croatan/Roanoke Sounds and coastal waters
north of Cape Hatteras at times but currently not anticipating
any SCA headlines for any waters given the short and infrequent
nature of any stronger gusts. Seas will remain around 1-3 ft
into Fri. As we get into Fri afternoon and evening an
approaching cold front will strengthen the gradient and while
not explicitly stated, bring the potential for stronger and near
SCA force wind gusts and 3-5 ft seas to our waters. Will have
to monitor trends in case SCA`s are needed in the coming days.
A return to more benign boating conditions are then forecast Sat
night into Sun as high pressure ridging builds into the area.

A series of shortwave troughs will push across the coastal waters
through the end of the week continuing to bring periods of
showers and thunderstorms, most prevalent being nocturnal driven
over the Gulf Stream waters. A cold front is progged to push
across the waters late Friday/Friday night bringing the best
chance to see showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ044-
     079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RCF
AVIATION...RM/RCF
MARINE...RCF/RJ