Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

322
FXUS62 KMHX 031839
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
239 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes since the previous update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unsettled weather pattern persists into mid week as multiple
rounds of showers and thunderstorms impact ENC bringing a low end
flash flooding risk.

Marine: SCA conditions continue into Monday for the coastal
waters.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Consider us underwhelmed by the overall progression
of things these past 24 hours. Synoptically there has not been much
change in the setup with several boxes already checked for the
potential for heavy rainfall. This includes a deep warm cloud
layer, ample moisture throughout the atmospheric column, and
PWATs of greater than 2" which would typically point towards a
heavy rain event across ENC. However, the continued trend
depicting a lack of organized surface convergence/boundaries
suggests more scattered activity which will be more progressive
in nature thus lowering the heavy rainfall threat. As a result
have cancelled the flood watch that was out for portions of ENC.
While their will be periods of torrential downpours and heavy
rainfall think the flooding risk has continued to trend down
today and will be more isolated in nature.

As mentioned above there is little change in the synoptic setup as
an upper level trough currently in the Tennessee River Valley has
stalled across the area and will remain there into midweek before
weakening and eventually getting absorbed by a passing northern
stream trough Wed/Thurs. This should keep the moisture channel open
from the Gulf into at least midweek as upper level S-SW`rly winds
remain in place advecting moisture N`wards. This second trough
should remain well enough to the north to preclude any impacts to
the area later this week. At the same time we still expect a few
shortwaves to transit around the base of this trough and lift north
through the Carolinas this afternoon into tonight, Tues and
potentially again on Wed. As the upper trough dissipates/gets
absorbed later this week any mid level forcing does look to shift
further inland away from ENC.

What does this mean for us as far as ambient weather goes through
Wed? Stalled surface front to our west will move little before
dissipating on Wed. Ongoing isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected this continue this afternoon with
periods of even lower coverage this evening before the next
shortwave transits across the area tonight into Tue morning
bringing a renewed threat for more widespread shower and
thunderstorm activity. Given the trends, expect widespread
rainfall amounts around 0.5-1.5" across ENC over the next 48
hours. REFS and HREF probs for greater than 2" of rainfall over
a 48 hour period continue to go on the downtrend with chances
now closer to 30-50%, thus lending credence to a lower flooding
risk. While the flooding risk is lower than previously
anticipated, that does not mean it is zero as any shower or
storm will have a chance to produce rainfall rates of at least
1-2" an hour which could yield an isolated and localized threat
for flooding in slower moving storms. Areas of concern appear
to be along the Crystal Coast and along the OBX south of Oregon
Inlet if this did occur.

We are now in a Marginal (level 1/4) Excessive Rain Outlook for
today and tomorrow.

By the end of the week it looks like we return back to climo or
below climo PoPs as a lack of mid level shortwaves or significant
forcing will be noted across ENC. This will likely result in chances
for showers and thunderstorms along the daily seabreeze but once
again these chances should be isolated at best given the overall
setup. After a cool start to the week given widespread cloudcover
and rain as highs only get into the low to mid 80s and lows in the
low 70s through Wed, we do begin to warm back up with temps
returning to the upper 80s to low 90s inland and mid 80s along the
OBX.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A mix of VFR to MVFR ceilings/vis are noted across ENC this
afternoon as scattered showers and thunderstorms impact the
region. Have used a mix of VCTS and TEMPO groups to account for
this threat across all terminals with the threat for reduced
vis and ceilings at least briefly lowering this evening as
shower and thunderstorm activity weakens and dissipates tonight.
Much like last night another round of low stratus appears
likely with MVFR to IFR ceilings increasingly likely after about
06Z. Low stratus is forecast to remain in place until Tue
morning before it lifts and VFR conditions return to ENC.
Finally yet another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms
are possible Tue afternoon keeping elevated chances of sub-VFR
conditions in place.


Outlook (Tuesday night through Saturday): Periods of sub-VFR
ceilings/vis are possible Wednesday with a chances for showers
and thunderstorms with a stalled upper trough off to the west.
Precip chances and thus the threat for sub-VFR conditions look
to decrease beyond Wed and into the weekend as high pressure
builds into the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas have continued to ease today as a stalled front to
our west has continued to weaken with high pressure ridging building
into the area. Ongoing S-SW winds at 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20
kts are noted across the inland waters with 15-20 kt S-SW winds and
gusts up to 25 kts noted across the coastal waters south of Oregon
Inlet this afternoon. In addition to this seas of 4-7 ft are noted as
well along the coastal waters. As a result all inland small crafts
have ended with lingering small crafts noted along the coastal
waters south of Oregon Inlet this afternoon. As the aforementioned
front gradually dissipates tonight into Tue and high pressure
ridging builds further over the area, winds and seas will ease with
winds falling to 5-10 kts out of the S-SW and seas falling to 2-5 ft
by Tue afternoon ending any leftover SCA threat. Will note while
winds and seas will decrease there will continue to be daily chances
for showers and thunderstorms across our waters through Tue.

Outlook (Tuesday night through Saturday): Expect more benign winds
and seas for the period as high pressure remains the dominant
feature across the region. Winds generally remain below 15 kts and
seas persist around 2-4 ft into the weekend.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ152-
     154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RCF
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...RCF