Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

776
FXUS62 KMHX 290700
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
300 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Raised max temps on the OBX through the period.

Took out most of the pops through early next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) One last day of elevated King Tides today before water levels
subside.

2) Continued warming through the weekend with dry conditions
expected to continue.

3) Next rain chance arrives by mid next week with a low pressure
system moving out of the Deep South.

Marine: Elevated seas will cont the SCA conditions through
Thursday evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Quasi stationary high pres sprawling across the
Mid- Atlantic and low pressure well off the FL coast will
result in cont northeasterly flow across the region today. The
high waves combined with King Tides this week will lead to
additional minor coastal flooding impacts on the OBX.

Minor coastal flooding of vulnerable locations still possible
through today with "sunny day" flooding across much of the
tidal regions of coastal ENC around times of high tide. Coastal
flood advisories continue through the high tide cycle today to
account for these elevated water levels.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Hts/thicknesses build further to round out the
week and temps climbing back to ~10 degrees above climo with
highs upr 70s to near 80 inland to low 70s OBX through Friday. A
reinforcing back door cool front will bring temps down closer to
climo (low 70s most locales) on Sunday. Low temps will also
remain above normal through much of the period with readings in
the 50s. Normal lows for most of the FA are in the 45-50 range
now.

KEY MESSAGE 3...High pres ridge finally begins to break down by
Tuesday and esp Wednesday as next potential low pres area and
cold front make it`s way into the region on active sub tropical
jet. Still timing differences on latest 29/00Z model suite, but
it appears this system could bring beneficial widespread rain to
the area. For now, due to timing differences, pops are in the
30-40% range at this time for the mid week period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecast confidence is moderate over the next 24 hours.

A moist easterly flow, plus weak low-level lift, appears to be what
is supporting SCT to BKN MVFR/VFR level clouds and SCT -SHRA. The
SHRA should decrease in coverage overnight, but the expectation is
that low CIGs will remain a potential impact. Like last night, there
is some uncertainty regarding stratus vs FG. However, the signal for
stratus appears to be stronger tonight, and the TAFs reflect this.
The greatest risk of a longer period of IFR, or lower, conditions is
at KISO and KPGV, with a modest risk at KOAJ and KEWN. At KMRH, the
risk of IFR, or lower, conditions appears the lowest. Low clouds are
likely to linger into the day Thursday, but heights should
gradually rise back to MVFR/VFR.

Outlook (Thu night through Sun): Expect VFR conditions to
continue during the daytime through at least Sun with quasi-
stationary high pres over the region. Coastal sections could see
ocnl MVFR STCU at times with flow cont off the Atlantic, as
well as bouts of overnight fg and low stratus inland with winds
quite calm the next several nights.

&&

.MARINE...
Currently seeing E to NE winds around 10-20 kt across the waters
with gust around 25-30 kt near the Gulf Stream, and seas around
5 to 7 ft. Buoys east of Nags Head reporting 6 ft seas, so have
added the waters from Duck to Oregon Inlet to the SCA through
tonight. SCA continues through Thursday evening south of Oregon
Inlet as it will take a while longer for seas to subside near
the Gulf Stream. Winds will gradually diminish tonight into
Thursday.

Outlook (Thu night through Sun): Winds/seas diminish by Thu
evening, though respite may be rather short-lived, as building
seas are possible once again later in the weekend into early
next week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NCZ195-196-199-203>205.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ196-
     203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SK/TL
AVIATION...TL
MARINE...SK/TL