Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

112
FXUS62 KMHX 122030
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
430 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Issues a Small Craft Advisory for central coastal waters.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Increased risk of scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms through Monday, some of which could be strong to
marginally severe, along with a risk of heavy rainfall and
scattered instances of flooding.

2) Brief reprieve from the dangerous heat early next week, then
hot and humid conditions return by the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...The frontal boundary is slowly pushing across
southern portion of the FA this afternoon will move south of the
area overnight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have
blossomed over the north and eastern portion of the area this
afternoon. While SPC continues to have ENC in marginal risk of
severe storms today with modest instability and shear present,
DCAPE is much lower than yesterday, less than 700 J/Kg, and
storms have remained relatively weak with strongest gusts only
around 30 kt. While cannot rule out an isolated storm producing
strong wind gusts, the over all severe threat appears minimal.

The storms have produced locally heavy rainfall to some areas,
however. Highest rainfall totals so far today has been across
western Hyde Co where 1-1.5" has fallen this afternoon. Anomalous
moisture, moderate instability, and areas of enhanced
convergence will continue across the Carolinas early this week.
Guidance differ on where the most persistent convection will
occur, but the pattern supports the potential for bands of
training convection. If these bands do, indeed, develop, short-
term hi-res guidance suggests a reasonable worst-case scenario
is for rainfall totals of upwards of 3-5". Amounts aside, the
anomalous moisture plus enhanced lift and moderate instability
suggests rainfall rates of 1-3"/hr at times. All of this
supports the potential for isolated to scattered instances of
flash flooding. Still considering a Flood Watch for portions
of the area, but there remains some uncertainty regarding the
placement of the heaviest rainfall and where the greatest risk
of training convection will be. Ensemble guidance show the
strongest signal across coastal sections of the FA, but
probabilities for greater than 3" over the next 48 hours are
only around 20-40% for this area. Given the drought conditions,
most of the area should be able to handle this amount but hydro
concerns may be focused in urban areas where rainfall rates may
overcome drainage systems for short bursts of time. Periods of
moderate to heavy rain may linger into Monday, but instability
is forecast to wane by then, and this may lead to lower rainfall
rates compared to today.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Low pressure developing off the coast of NC on
Monday is expected to keep a "cooler" northeasterly flow going
across ENC through Tuesday. This should keep temps below normal
for a couple of days, and consequently lower the heat risk. This
looks to be short-lived, though, as a warming southwesterly
flow regime returns mid to late-week. Guidance continue to show
a strong signal for above normal temperatures and an increased
heat risk once again.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A very moist and moderately unstable airmass will combine with
increasing lift along a stalled frontal boundary draped across
the Carolinas will support an increased risk of TSRA across
rtes through the TAF period. Heavier shower will bring periods
of sub-VFR conditions this afternoon. Fairly high probabilities
for sub-VFR conditions (mainly MVFR to IFR) developing this
evening and continuing through Monday with periods of showers
potentially bringing lower cigs/vsbys.

Outlook (Monday night through Thursday): Moisture and lift
along a stalled front should continue to support periods of SHRA
into Tuesday with periods of low CIGs (IFR/MVFR). A more
predominant period of VFR conditions looks to return by the
middle of next week.

&&

.MARINE...
A front is slowly pushing across the southern waters late this
afternoon and will push south of the area overnight. An area of
low pressure will develop along the front near Cape Fear and
slowly slide eastward through Tuesday. While significant
deepening of the low is not expected, the tightening gradient
will lead to building easterly winds, especially for waters
north of Ocracoke Inlet. South of there, winds are expected to
lighter and more variable as the low moves slowly east away from
Cape Fear. From Ocracoke Inlet north, easterly winds of 15-
20kt are expected with some guidance suggesting some gusts to
around 25 kt possible at times, mainly across the central
waters. Will see building seas with a decent easterly fetch off
the coast with 3-5 ft seas across most of the nearshore
waters, however guidance is bringing seas up to 4-7 ft across
the outer waters and central nearshore waters. Have issued a SCA
for the central waters from Oregon Inlet to Ocracoke Inlet
Monday and Monday evening.

Outlook (Tuesday through Friday): Low pressure will slowly
weaken and move east on Tuesday with high pressure building in
mid to late week bringing improved boating conditions.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Monday to midnight EDT Monday
     night for AMZ152-154.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RM/SK
AVIATION...RM/SK
MARINE...RM/SK