Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

754
FXUS62 KMHX 221028
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
628 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Heat Advisory issued from late this morning into early evening
for near-coastal zones.

Flood Watch issued for the entire region through Friday.

625 AM Wed...Aviation discussion updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected to
impact eastern NC through at least Friday and potentially into
the weekend as a slow-moving and moisture-laden front slowly
moves across the area and stalls. Rainfall totals of up to 4-6"
possible.

2) A few strong thunderstorms are possible this afternoon mainly
along and north of Highway 64 with damaging winds being the
primary risk. An isolated tornado is possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Latest analysis depicts broad troughing over the
eastern CONUS this morning with a slow moving cold front
oriented from southeastern Canada to just west of the spine of
the Appalachians and into the southern plains. The cold front is
expected to slowly make its way eastward towards the Carolinas
and eventually stall, while multiple shortwaves migrate through
the upper trough. This alone would already be a concern for an
extended period of unsettled weather, but an additional factor
to consider is a plume of deep tropical moisture, associated
with TS Bertha roughly 750 mi to our WSW, forecast to advect
and pool ahead of the front resulting in PWATs north of 2.25"
across much of the area.

With the aforementioned synoptic setup, as well as model
soundings depicting a deep warm cloud layer, ample instability
but skinny CAPE profiles, and likely training storm motions, the
local environment is primed for a flash flooding threat despite
long-term antecedent drought conditions. Timing of rainfall
onset remains uncertain with a decent amount of spread still
present in CAMS, although general consensus is the threat
beginning overnight Wednesday along and north of Highway 64,
gradually filling in to the south into the day Thursday.
Guidance points to a drier airmass intruding into northern
zones late Thursday night, but deeper moisture remains pooled
south of this line and especially over the Crystal Coast through
Friday-Saturday and potentially longer.

Forecast storm total amounts for the area currently range from
4-6" through Saturday night. The most likely period for the
most intense rainfall is Thursday into Thursday night, and this
is supported by the ECMWF EFI which continued its trend from
yesterday of exceeding the 80-90% percentile of forecast
precipitation. SOT values of 1-2 point to some risk for a
higher-end event beyond what is forecast. It should be noted
that since this will be a convective episode, showers and
thunderstorms will be hit-and-miss through the period in
contrast to a total washout. That being said, the environment
will be highly favorable for rainfall rates of 2-3" an hour,
potentially higher in more robust thunderstorms. In urban areas
or highly vulnerable locations, this could quickly bring
flooding concerns.

Despite uncertainty in frontal progression timing, the highly
favorable environment for flash flooding necessitated a Flood
Watch for the entire FA. Areas along and north of Highway 64 are
valid until 12Z Friday, while areas south are valid until 00z
Saturday. Extensions are possible into the weekend, especially
along the southern coast. WPC maintains our area in a Slight
(Level 2/4) risk of excessive rainfall for tonight, and a
Moderate (Level 3/4) risk on Thursday. Slight risk remains for
the area into Friday and Saturday as well.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The front tonight will be accompanied by an
uptick in shear, although there will be poor forcing across our
area as well as potentially limited instability with lingering
cloud cover. Still, CAMs and AI NWP point to a marginal risk of
a stronger storm or two, most likely across southeastern VA but
potentially extending into the Albemarle Peninsula and areas
north of Highway 264. Most likely timing is after 20z with
damaging wind gusts being the primary threat, but an isolated
tornado is possible as surface winds back ahead of the
approaching front.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions across TAF terminals this morning with plenty of
cirrus still aloft and low stratus still trying to creep
northward especially across the inner coastal plain. Low stratus
will likely linger into mid-morning before increased mixing
boosts cigs back to VFR. Iso scattered showers and storms
possible in the afternoon and evening, but coverage likely to
increase from north to south after 06z as front pushes south and
interacts with deeper moisture. MVFR cigs likely to follow, but
with expected torrential rainfall frequent drops of visibility
to IFR or worse levels is possible.

Outlook (Thu morning through Sunday): A stronger front
approaches into Thurs, renewing stronger shower and thunderstorm
chances WED. This front will stall offshore on Thurs evening
where it will linger into the weekend, keeping rain and subVFR
flight cat threat up through this weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Regional observations depict robust small craft conditions
across all area waters with southwest winds of 20 to 30 kt with
occasional gusts to 35 kt. Offshore, seas have responded by
building up to 6-8 feet with likely higher waves beyond 20-40 nm
especially north and east of Cape Hatteras. Little change was
made to existing headlines apart from an extension of most SCAs
for a few hours, as timing of front responsible for the strong
gradient winds has slowed somewhat. A few gusts to 35 kt remain
possible across portions of the Pamlico Sound through sunrise.

Stronger winds ebb after sunrise but SCA conditions likely to
persist across all zones into tonight. Shower and thunderstorm
coverage likely to be limited but blossom overnight into
Thursday ahead of the approaching front.

Outlook (Wednesday night through Sunday): For the outer waters,
elevated winds and seas will continue into Thurs as front slowly
pushes across area waters, keeping elevated winds and seas in
place and increased tstorm chances. Front moves through by Thurs
afternoon and evening with winds shifting to a NE`rly direction
and easing to a 10-15 kts with seas falling to 2-5 ft. Winds
will remain benign but front will linger over area waters into
Saturday promoting an elevated risk of showers and thunderstorms
over the region, especially along and south of Cape Hatteras.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for
     NCZ029-044>047-079>081-203.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening
     for NCZ080-081-090-092-094-193-194-198-199.
     Flood Watch from Thursday morning through Friday evening for
     NCZ090>092-094-193>196-198-199-204-205.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ195-196-
     199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ131-230-
     231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ135-152-
     154-156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ136-137.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ150.
     Gale Warning until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ180-182-184.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MS
AVIATION...MS
MARINE...MS