Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

633
FXUS62 KMHX 181052
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
652 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated aviation discussion for 18/12Z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Above normal to near-record high temperatures and rain-free
conditions to continue through mid-week.

2) A frontal system approaches the area late week, bringing the
next appreciable chance of showers and thunderstorms

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Notably warm low-level thicknesses beneath
anomalous mid-upper level ridging will continue to support above
to well above normal temperatures across the Carolinas through
the middle of the week. While well above normal temperatures are
expected, temperatures look to stay just shy of records. It may
be close across the coastal plain, though.

Additionally, despite increasing low-level moisture, ridging
aloft should tend to suppress convective activity outside of
perhaps a rogue shower or thunderstorm where convergence is
maximized along the seabreeze (Albemarle Sound/NRN OBX
vicinity). Still, probs of this occuring are low enough to keep
out of the forecast with this update.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The mid-upper level ridge is forecast to break
down some late-week and into the weekend. This should allow a
front to drop south into the Thursday into Friday. There
continues to be some uncertainty regarding whether or not the
front fully makes it through ENC, whether it stalls, or whether
it lifts quickly back north as a warm front. Given the strength
of the ridge, it stands to reason that the front will struggle
to get fully through ENC, and the forecast reflects this
scenario. Then, ridging may try to make a comeback late in the
weekend, which would favor the front lifting back north as a
warm front by early next week.

Based on the above, increasing moisture and instability along
the frontal zone should support an increased risk of showers and
thunderstorms. Probabilistic guidance shows a solid chance of
0.25"- 0.75" each day from Thursday into the weekend. However,
it should be noted that those amounts will be highly dependent
on the evolution of the frontal zone. Initially when the front
drops into the area, there may be just enough flow aloft to
support some thunderstorm organization and perhaps a marginal
risk of strong to severe thunderstorms. Machine learning and
analog guidance support this potential as well. However, no one
day stands out as having a higher risk of severe thunderstorms.

Notably high PWATs along the frontal zone should support higher
rainfall rates in convection. However, notable hydro impacts
are not expected due to the recent dry stretch and ongoing
drought conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR VIS/CIG for SW portions of eastern NC become VFR this
morning, expected to remain VFR through the day. Sub-VFR chances
return tonight into Tuesday morning with another round of
fog/low stratus.

Generally clear skies today, with a shift in winds from SW to S
associated with the daily seabreeze, gusting to 15-20 knots
behind it.

Tonight, chances for decoupling are higher, and solid low level
moisture primes us for another fog/low stratus night. Like this
morning, expect things to initiate along SW portions of the
CWA, before slowly progressing north and east. As a reasonable
worst case scenario IFR/LIFR VIS and CIG are possible. Highest
chances for OAJ, decreasing as you go north.

Outlook: A dry seabreeze pattern looks to continue through
Wednesday. Beyond then, a frontal boundary sagging south into
ENC is expected to bring an increasing risk of SHRA, TSRA, and
sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
A summer-like pattern continues through the middle of the week,
with a daily building of winds to 10-20kt each afternoon and
evening as the thermal gradient tightens. This will especially
be the case for the inland rivers and sounds and the nearby
coastal waters within 20nm of the coast. This should also
support periods of 3-5ft seas.

Outlook: A frontal boundary is forecast to sag south into the
area late-week, then meander around the area through the
upcoming weekend. This leads to lower confidence regarding winds
and seas, but especially wind direction. In general, the risk
of 25kt+ winds appears low during this time ahead of the front,
with slightly higher chances of seeing 25+kt gusts behind the
front. There will be an increased risk of thunderstorms along
the front.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RJ
AVIATION...RJ
MARINE...RJ