Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

592
FXUS62 KMHX 192339
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
639 PM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
We continue to closely watch guidance for a potentially
significant winter weather event this weekend. A lot of
uncertainty remains with this system, especially in regard to
precipitation types across ENC. Over the past 12 hours, the
probabilities for snow has changed little, however the
probabilities for freezing rain has increased.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) An Arctic blast will bring below normal temperatures through
Wednesday. Wind chills values are expected to drop to around 15
to 20 range tonight and again Tuesday night. The coldest
temperatures will come Tuesday night with lows in the teens for
all areas away from the beaches with high pressure overhead.

2) An Arctic front will push through the area late Friday with
a low pressure system passing along the coast over the weekend
bringing a threat threat for winter weather impacts across ENC.
Confidence is increasing that winter weather will occur over the
area that may bring impactful snow and ice accumulations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A dry front/trough will push south across the area this evening
with Arctic high pressure building into the area through
Wednesday bringing well below normal temps. Lows tonight
expected in the mid 20s away from the coast and upper 20s to mid
30s along the beaches with light winds bringing wind chill
values into the upper teens to mid 20s. Highs Tuesday will
struggle to reach the low to mid 40s. The coldest night of the
week will come Tuesday night with clear skies and light/calm
winds allowing for good radiational cooling with low expected
around 15-20 degrees inland from the coast and 20s along the
coast. Wind chill values will be similar to temps with little
wind to speak of. Probabilities are low for reaching Cold
Weather Advisory criteria (apparent Temp <15 degrees) either
night but will be closest to threshold on Tuesday night.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
A series of northern stream shortwaves will reinforce deep
troughing over the Eastern US late this week through early
next week. A strong cold front will push through the area late
Friday with Arctic high pressure building into the area from the
north setting the stage for maintaining cold temperatures
across the region. Low pressure will then develop along the
stalled front offshore and pass offshore late Saturday and
Saturday night bringing the moisture across the region with
increasing chances for seeing wintry precip across the region.
There is quite a bit of uncertainty with precipitation types as
there is expected be a warm nose that will allow for a melting
layer around 850mb and the depth of the cold air below. There is
increasing potential for a significant impacts with snow, sleet
and freezing rain all possible over the weekend, however it is
much too early to try to pinpoint where specific p-types will
set up. Stay tuned to the forecast over the next several days
with the increasing threat for wintry wx.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR flight cats will persist through the TAF period. High
pressure builds Eward over Eastern NC behind a reinforcing cold
front, which will be accompanied with some thin upper level
clouds, passing through the first half of tonight. Light SWerly
winds ahead of the front, becoming NWerly behind it. Slightly
stronger winds TUE with some gustiness (but less than 15kt)
during peak heating. SKC persists TUE.

Outlook: Predominant VFR conditions expected across Eastern NC
through late week as high pressure persists. Next chance for
flight restrictions this weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs show SW winds 10-15 kt with seas 2-4 ft. A
reinforcing front will drop through the waters this evening with
winds becoming NW around 10-20 kt, strongest across the northern
coastal waters where frequent gust to 25 kt is possible. Made a
slight adjustment to the SCA from Duck to Ocracoke for slightly
later timing with the strongest surge expected between 06-12z.

Tuesday through Friday: Lighter winds expected Tuesday
through much of the rest of the week with speeds generally 5-15
kt with mainly high pressure in control. The next low pressure
system will impact the area this weekend which will likely bring
strong SCA conditions and a chance for Gale Force winds over
portions of the waters.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SK
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...SK