Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

180
FXUS62 KMHX 101431
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1031 AM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
AM Update to lower rainfall totals, and lower thunder chances.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Wet and breezy weekend is expected as deep tropical moisture
overspreads the Carolinas. Periods of heavy rain likely,
focused along the coast, with gusty winds along the coast.

2) An isolated tornado risk in embedded thunderstorms is
possible tonight into Sunday.

3) Coastal flooding and high surf concerns for coastal
communities this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Update: Have lowered rainfall totals, as now
expected bulk of heavier convective elements remain mostly
offshore with much of ENC remaining in stable sector. Have thus
lowered thunder chances quite a bit, removing mention of thunder
for most mainland zones today, with widespread overrunning
precip and cloud cover limiting destabilization. Coastal areas
may still pick up upwards of 3-5", esp Downeast and ctrl/srn OBX
nearest the warmer Gulf waters through the overnight.

A plume of tropical moisture characterized by 2"+ PWATs and
dewpoints in the 70s is forecast to get pulled north through the
southeastern CONUS over the weekend to the east of the
northward-advancing remnants of TC Isaias. At the surface, a
warm front/coastal trough will trudge north along the
southeastern coastline, likely with a weak, non-tropical area of
low pressure developing along it. Along and ahead of the warm
front, a strong southeasterly LLJ will develop, supporting
increasing WAA and moisture transport into the area with a
shield of moderate to heavy rain developing across the coastal
Carolinas. Along and just behind the warm front, the precip will
likely become more banded and contain some embedded convective
elements with very heavy rain. It`s these bands that will pose
the greatest risk of flooding. The time period of most concern
for these heavy rates and flooding potential are overnight
tonight into early Sun morning. Convective guidance suggests
rainfall amounts as high as 4-6"+ are possible if those bands
manage to reach the coast. As is often the case with convection
nearing the coast, whether some of the moisture transport will
be cutoff by strong convection over the Gulf Stream is in
question. If this happens, amounts would be quite a bit less for
areas outside of the coastal waters. 10/00Z REFS LPPM continues
to show amounts in the 3-6+" range possible for the immediate
coast and OBX zones. Will continue Flood Watch for areas along
the coast, effective later this afternoon through early Sun
afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Possibility of convective elements reaching the
coast would warrant a tornado risk later this evening as the
aforementioned warm front lifts through ENC. Plenty of low level
helicity in place with the inc serly flow in place and strong
veering wind profile downstairs. The greatest tor threat would
likely be focused near the srn/sern coast where better
instability advects onshore. For Sunday, flow becomes more
unidirectional with swrly low level winds ensuing during the
afternoon. While helicity wanes, better instability will be in
place due to daytime highs expected in the low 80s and TD`s in
the 70s. Will have to watch for continued severe threat Sunday
afternoon ahead of the cold front, esp if there are some breaks
in the cloud cover.

The remnants of Isaias are forecast to round the upper level
ridge and move off the Northern Mid-Atlantic Coast early next
week. Drier air then moves in behind it with drying conditions
developing Sun night into Mon.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Strengthening onshore winds, building seas, and
higher than normal astronomical tides may support some coastal
impacts this weekend. There remains uncertainty on the magnitude
of impacts, especially given the shorter-duration of the
stronger winds, as well as what should be a weaker swell
compared to the recent Nor`easter. With that in mind, there will
be an increased risk of rip currents and large waves, at a
minimum. High Surf Advisory remains in effect between Ocracoke
and Oregon Inlets focused overnight into Sunday. Additionally,
some of the most vulnerable locations along the Outer Banks may
see at least some minor issues, especially with Sunday morning`s
high tide (7-9am). There may also be some minor coastal
flooding around sounds and tidal waterways around the Crystal
Coast due to the higher astronomical tides.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecast confidence is moderate to high over the next 24 hours.

VFR conditions currently across the terminals early this
morning, with widespread mid clouds blanketing the area. Clouds
will steadily lower through the day as low- mid level moisture
advection increases. Expect MVFR to develop mid morning to
afternoon, then IFR late afternoon and evening. Guidance
continues to differ quite a bit regarding the timing of lower
cigs. Light rain this morning, becoming more widespread, heavy
at times expected this afternoon into tonight, with potential
for embedded storms esp along the coast tonight. The gradient
will begin to strengthen as a frontal zone strengthens to the
south of ENC. It`s expected that this will lead to increasing
east winds, with gusts of 20-30kt likely today.

Outlook (Sun through Wed): Widespread rain, heavy at times, and
gusty nerly to erly winds along with likely IFR conditions will
continue through the first part of Sunday...with potential for
embedded TSRA. Clearing conditions expected Sunday night into
Monday but with gusty wrly to nwerly winds behind it.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs show NE-E winds 5-15 kt with seas 2-4 ft. Conditions
will quickly deteriorate this morning and through the day.
Nerly gradient strengthens through the day, with winds ramping
up to gales 20-30 kt gusting 30-35 kt later in the afternoon
from S to N across the coastal waters. For the sounds and
rivers, SCA winds develop with these nerly pinched gradient
winds. Seas will peak at 7-11 ft tonight. East winds will grad
weaken from south to north overnight and early Sun, grad
veering. Gales remain for the outer waters with this swrly flow
on Sunday. For the rivers and sounds, winds should remain in the
strong SCA range with speeds of 20-30 kt expected.

Outlook (Sun through Wed): Strong winds will turn further to
the s and sw Sun. Gales remain for the outer waters with this
swrly flow on Sunday. For the rivers and sounds, winds should
remain in the strong SCA range with speeds of 20-30 kt expected.
In addition to the winds, nearshore seas are expected to peak
in the 6-10ft range at 7-8s. For the outer coastal waters, seas
may reach 8-11ft.

Thunderstorms capable of strong winds and waterspouts will be
possible as well, mainly overnight into Sunday. Conditions
gradually improve by Sun evening with clearing returning by
Monday morning as high pressure begins to build in.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through Sunday
     afternoon for NCZ047-081-092-094-194>196-198-199-203>205.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-199-203>205.
     High Surf Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Sunday
     for NCZ204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT
     Sunday for AMZ131-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT
     Sunday night for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT
     Sunday for AMZ136-137.
     Gale Warning from midnight tonight to noon EDT Sunday for
     AMZ150-180.
     Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Sunday for
     AMZ152-154.
     Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT tonight
     for AMZ156-158-186-188.
     Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Sunday for
     AMZ182-184.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CQD/TL
AVIATION...CQD
MARINE...CQD/TL