Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

639
FXUS62 KMHX 071139
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
639 AM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation disco updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cooler, drier, and more seasonable behind the frontal
passage this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Seasonably dry and temperature airmass (perhaps
a couple degrees below normal) will be ushered in behind this
morning`s cold front as it pushes further offshore. In the near
term, low stratus will continue to plague eastern NC as moisture
remains pooled under the frontal inversion. Stronger surge of
dry air, combined with mixing after daybreak, should usher in
sunny skies. The high will become the dominant weather feature
for the weekend and much of next week. Cooler temperatures with
highs in the 60s prevail today and tomorrow before a slight
warm-up next week into the low 70s, although humidity will
remain low. We will have to watch for the risk of some frost
over the upcoming nights, particularly tonight and Mon night as
lows dip towards the upper 30s and skies remain clear and winds
light. Will defer to day shift to determine whether advisories
are needed.

Beyond mid-week most guidance depicts an increasingly unsettled
pattern as complex mid-level low deepens over the eastern CONUS.
There is at least some signal for a developing low off our coast
beyond Wednesday, although its evolution and timing remain
highly uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mixed bag of flight cats across the area behind the cold front
that is now offshore. Cold front is just about completely
offshore, but the drier air is lagging behind a few hours. TAF
sites likely to bounce around flight cats as pockets of IFR-MVFR
fog and/or stratus ~FL002-FL008 drifting lazily behind the front
slowly mixes with leftover areas of subsidence. Push of drier
air spills over ENC in the early morning hours combined with
sunrise burning some of this low level moisture off leading to
the typical post frontal clearing. Only some cirri to contend
with today as high pressure takes control with NW winds up to 10
kt. Winds tonight are not currently forecast to decouple, which
would be the saving grace for any fog development overnight
SAT/early SUN. Should winds calm, fog will be on the table as
well as some patchy frost inland where MinTs will drop into the
30s.

Outlook: An extended period of VFR conditions is expected much
drier airmass remains over the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Cold front is making its way across area waters this hour with
winds quickly turning northwesterly and increasing to 10-20 kt
at times. A few infrequent gusts to 25 kt are possible with a
secondary surge of NW winds later this morning, especially north
of Cape Hatteras, but this is not expected to be prominent
enough to warrant SCA headlines. Seas will persist at around 3-5
ft nearshore and 4-6 ft offshore.

Behind the front, high pressure will build in with weakening
winds and therefore slowly subsiding seas.

Outlook (Sunday through Wednesday): High builds in this weekend
into next week, keeping winds below 20 kts and skies rain-free.
Despite the decrease in winds, elevated seas may linger through
the weekend for 20-60nm zones at around 4-6 feet, and an
isolated 6 foot wave is possible just within 20nm primarily for
waters in Raleigh Bay.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MS/RJ
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...MS/RJ