Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

544
FXUS62 KMHX 100749
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
349 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Confidence increasing on a front stalling between the NC/VA
border and hwy 70 Friday PM.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Hot today and Friday, with heat indices near 100F.

2) More unsettled pattern expected Friday through the weekend as
front stalls near the area.

3) Back to a more typical summertime pattern next week with high
draped over the southeast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Temperatures peak today and Friday as flow
turns more southwesterly and low-level thicknesses peak, with
highs in the low to mid 90s. Dew points also peak on Friday,
resulting in maximum heat index values returning to around 100F.
At this time the odds of issuing a Heat Advisory continue to be
less than 10%, but trends will continue to be monitored.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Mid- level subsidence continues aloft, keeping
low end shower chances (15%) confined to areas where
sea/sound/river breezes converge today. Brought down PotThunder
to keep thunder mentions out of the forecast today, as a notable
dry layer above 700mb will make it difficult for updrafts to
grow tall enough for lightning.

Friday the high continues to shift offshore and a front sweeps
south through the Mid-Atlantic region. Ahead of this front,
continuous warm, moist advection in southerly flow will help
build PWATs to near 2". This will bring scattered sea breeze
showers/tstorms back into the forecast. Coverage may be limited
as models are suggesting mid level subsidence and a dry layer
lingering into Friday. Guidance continues to lock in on a
solution where the front largely bisecting eastern NC by
Friday, although a small minority still shows it stalling
farther north along the VA border. Wherever the boundary ends up
setting up will be the focus for the highest risk of training
showers and thunderstorms contributing to a localized flash
flooding threat. Forecast 0-6km shear looks to be around 15-25
knots along the front, giving the northern tier of counties (hwy
264 and areas north, the best chance of organized convection and
higher rainfall totals.

The front lifts back north Saturday into Sunday as a shortwave
moves through NC. This shortwave will bring slightly better
chances for showers and thunderstorms this weekend. Like Friday,
flooding concerns remain the primary risk with PWATs still
around 2" but effective shear slightly higher at 15-20 kt.
Available instability remains a question mark for that day given
potential convective evolution on Friday and the risk for
lingering convective debris overnight and/or low stratus that
may develop on the cooler side of the frontal boundary. The NBM
probabilistic envelope has shifted slightly cooler for Saturday
but still remains high compared to both deterministic and MOS
guidance, suggesting a cooler and therefore lower instability
solution will prevail. If more instability can develop, the
modest uptick in shear may provide a slightly more favorable
environment for an isolated stronger storm or two. One deviation
from previous model run iterations of note is the potential for
the shortwave to move through to our west. This would decrease
overall forcing in eastern NC and confine storms to areas
generally west of hwy 17. This trend has been reflected in
slightly lower PoPs for Saturday afternoon/evening (down from
80% to 70% inland), and a PoP free forecast for much of the
coastline.

There is higher confidence on a low- CAPE outcome Sunday (less
than 2000 J/kg). While heavy showers and some thunderstorms are
possible with the shortwave, the severe threat appears to be
more muted.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A more typical summertime pattern will settle in
again early next week as a large high sits over the southeast.
Based on current model outputs, we have enough moisture and
instability present for some afternoon/evening sea breeze
convection early next week, but there are no larger scale
synoptic features of note that would promote any additional
forcing.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail at the terminals through the TAF
period. There is a low chance (10-20%) for shallow fog
development late tonight near Onslow and Duplin counties,
roughly 8-11z, where decoupling occurs. Have a TEMPO

Breezier day tomorrow as front approaches the north, and a few
gusts to 15-20 kt are likely both inland and across OBX
terminals especially after 18z. Could see an isolated
thunderstorm tomorrow, mainly along the sea breeze, although
the risk of a strong storm is minimal.

NOTE: AMD NOT SKED has been appended to the EWN TAFs as the
site is not transmitting through normal channels. The site is
still reporting via telephone so it will be monitored, but not
as frequently as when it is completely operational. The next
closest ASOS is at Cherry Point (KNKT).

Outlook (Friday through Monday): A front is expected to
approach the region and stall Friday and Saturday bringing a
chance of showers and thunderstorms with periods of sub-VFR
conditions possible. Shower and isolated thunderstorm threat
extends into Sunday before more typical summertime weather
returns Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Benign marine conditions ongoing with winds generally out of
the south to southwest at 5-15 kt and seas around 2-3 feet. Conditions
deteriorate slightly later today as southwest winds increase
ahead of an approaching front. SW winds will peak around 15-20
kt late Thurs into Friday morning, and a few gusts to 25 kt are
possible across the Albemarle Sound and northern waters.
Probabilities of 25+ kt are still around 20% and elected not to
issue a SCA. If conditions look to be exceeding the forecast
later today, a MWS or last minute SCA is not out of the
question.

Outlook (Fri through Mon): A coastal trough may also set up
Thursday night into Friday, bringing increased tstorm chances
along the Gulf Stream. Front bisects area waters on Friday then
lifts northward on Saturday. Sub-SCA conditions expected but
shower and thunderstorm risk will continue at least into Sunday.
High pressure builds in early next week with benign boating
conditions returning.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MS/RJ
AVIATION...MS/RJ
MARINE...MS/RJ