Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

612
FXUS62 KMHX 010658
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
Issued by National Weather Service Wakefield VA
258 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increased fire danger statement is in effect from 11 AM to 7 PM
across the interior coastal plain.

Only minor changes have been made to the forecast this morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Increased fire danger statement is in effect from 11 AM to 7
PM across the interior coastal plain.

2) Mostly dry with above normal temperatures through the first
part of the weekend.

3) A cold front will push through the area late this weekend
into early next week, bringing increasing rain chances, cooler
temperatures, and the next best chance for marine headlines.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 250 AM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Increased fire danger statement is in effect
from 11 AM to 7 PM across the interior coastal plain.

No change with regards to the forecast or the ongoing burn ban,
as NCFS burn ban remains in effect statewide until further
notice. Despite moistening return flow which has brought MinRHs
levels above usual IFD criteria, given the ongoing drought
conditions, dry fuels, and strengthening afternoon winds,
another IFD has been collaborated for today through NCFS and
neighboring NWS offices. The IFD is in effect for 11 AM to 7 PM
for the interior coastal plain.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Mostly dry with above normal temperatures
through the first part of the weekend.

Dry and warming forecast through the remainder of the work-
week, with model consensus keeping the high anchored offshore,
precluding any precis associated with a weak frontal boundary
that is forecast to approach, but not reach, ENC. Though
isolated diurnal showers will be possible each day given the
pattern, the chance is too low to include in explicit forecast.
Best chance, albeit below mentionable in the grids, will be
later in the week (THU-SAT). This trend also favors warmer
conditions across ENC. Adding additional support for the drier
scenario is climatological guidance (CFC), which shows a strong
signal for below normal precipitation through the end of the
week. Consequently, NBM continues to keep PoPs below mentionable
all the way through FRI. Above normal temperatures will
continue this week and into the weekend, with highs mostly in
the low to mid 80s inland and 70s for the beaches.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A cold front will push through the area late
this weekend into early next week, bringing increasing rain
chances, cooler temperatures, and the next best chance for
marine headlines.

A cold front will approach the area Sunday, likely moving
through later Sunday evening into early Monday. Increasing
shower chances Sunday and Monday, along with isolated
thunderstorm potential ahead of the front. Rain chances along
the Sern coast may linger into mid-week with a low expected to
develop and travel along the front, passing somewhere off the
ENC coast. Latest 00z/01 deterministic guidance continues to
keep the low far enough offshore to keep showers off the coast,
but will allow NBM`s slight chance PoPs to remain in the grids
for now. Low level thickness values and N-NE flow behind the
front will lead to below normal temps with highs mostly in the
60s early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 AM EDT Wednesday...

Not much change in the TAF forecast across ENC. High pressure
remains centered offshore with primarily VFR conditions through
the period. Into this morning, steady SW winds at about 5 kts
are forecast. Given the similar setup as compared to last night,
have introduced a TEMPO group for some ground fog (MIFG) at OAJ
with the expectation that some minor reductions in visibility
are possible here. Either way no impact to operations is
forecast here. As we get into the mid to late morning hours
SWrly winds will increase slightly to 8-12 kts with gusts up
around 20 kts with slightly higher winds across the OBX. While
winds will primarily remain SWrly today, a shift to a Srly
direction behind the seabreeze is forecast this afternoon across
all terminals with winds once again lowering to about 5 kts and
becoming SWrly tonight. VFR conditions continue into tonight
as diurnal Cu field at about 4-5 kft sets up around 14/15Z
across ENC with diurnal Cu field quickly diminishing near
sunset.

Outlook (Thursday through Sunday): Mainly VFR, best chance for
sub VFR late Sun into Mon with rain associated with an incoming
front.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 250 AM EDT Wednesday...

Rinse and repeat. High pressure will remain anchored offshore
through the work- week, keeping light to moderate S-SWerly winds
in place through the period. Expect 15-25kt SWerly winds and
4-5 ft seas during the afternoon and evenings, winds calming
some to 10-15kt, allowing seas to lay down overnight and through
the early morning until the thermal gradient strengthens again
in the afternoon. Gulf Stream waters, far Eern portions of
Pamlico Sound, and Croatan and Roanoke Sounds most likely to see
gusts up to 25kt, but not strong enough to warrant the issuance
of a <6hr long SCA every afternoon. This cycle repeats into THU
morning.

Outlook (Late Weekend into Early next week): Winds become more
Serly THU and FRI and relax some, generally 10-15kt with gusts
up to 20kt during peak heating. FROPA is expected late SUN into
MON and represents the next best chance of SCA conditions both
ahead of and behind the front. Front will be accompanied with
showers and tstorms what PoPs remaining in- place potential into
middle of next week with an area of low pressure developing off
the FL coast and traveling along the boundary well out to sea.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MHX
AVIATION...MHX
MARINE...MHX