Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

691
FXUS62 KMHX 091904
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
304 PM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Marine Dense Fog Advisory issued for coastal waters from Cape
Lookout to Surf City.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Well above normal to near record conditions expected through
mid week

2) Strong cold front moves through the region Thursday with
widespread showers and the potential for thunderstorms

Marine...Elevated winds and seas expected with a strong cold
front Wednesday through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Notable upper level ridging will build over the
Southeastern U.S. through mid-week. Beneath the ridge, south to
southwesterly low-level flow will continue to support very warm
low- level thicknesses. In fact, thicknesses may approach 2-3
standard deviations above the mean for this time of year.
Synoptically, this favors well above normal to record level
temperatures. Adding support to this potential is forecast aids
like the ECMWF EFI guidance, which show a very strong signal for
record, or near- record, temperatures. This will be most
apparent inland away from the influence of local water bodies.
However, even along the coast, water temperatures have now
warmed into the 60s, and it will still be warm there, especially
prior to the diurnal seabreeze. For perspective, normal highs
this time of year are in the low 60s. The equates to highs
Tuesday and Wednesday running a solid 10-20 degrees above
normal. Please see the CLIMATE section below for additional
information on records at some select locations.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A neutral to slightly negative upper level
shortwave is forecast to move through the Carolinas on Thursday.
At the surface, a cold front will move SE across ENC during the
day, reaching the coast by the afternoon hours. Strong moisture
transport ahead of the front, plus strong frontal forcing and
enhanced upper level dynamics should support an area of
scattered to numerous showers along the front Thursday.
Additionally, low to mid 60s dewpoints beneath modest lapse
rates may allow a narrow ribbon of modest instability to
develop. While deep layer shear is forecast to be more than
sufficient for thunderstorm organization, a diurnally
unfavorable timing of the frontal passage and limited
instability should keep the severe thunderstorm risk muted. Some
machine learning guidance show a weak signal for severe
weather, though, so the risk isn`t zero. Something to watch, but
for now the key message is that the risk is low. This front
will briefly usher in a notably cooler and drier airmass across
ENC Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions for most this afternoon, although a lingering 3
kft ceiling is present in some inland terminals. These should
rise above 3kft in the next 1-2 hours with the warming this
afternoon. Areas of fog may re- develop again overnight into Tue
morning as light to calm winds spread over the region. We do
have some drier air with a very shallow inversion, so expecting
the nature of fog to be more patchy and shallow, with potential
for stratus instead of winds struggle to go calm. Regardless,
the forecast for tonight is of lower confidence with the range
of possibilities going from LIFR to VFR. Tomorrow, fog and low
stratus should lift by 13-15Z, leading to another day of light
SW winds and VFR ceilings.

Outlook...Sub-VFR may return Thursday with scattered to
numerous showers and gusty winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Sea Fog:
Sea fog has moved in to coastal waters between Cape Lookout and
Surf City, with visibilities dropping below 1 SM. A marine
dense fog advisory has been issued until 22Z for this, with low
confidence on how long it will linger this afternoon. Tonight as
the surface layer saturates sea fog chances increase across the
CWA outside of the Gulf Stream. There is a scenario where the
sea fog currently observed between Cape Lookout and Surf City
continues through tomorrow morning.

Outside of sea fog impacts, fairly benign boating conditions
are expected to continue through Tuesday night. During this
time, southwest winds of 5-10kt are expected, along with seas of
2-3 ft.

Outlook: On Wednesday, the pattern will begin to change as the
gradient tightens ahead of an approaching cold front. This will
lead to building winds and seas on Wednesday, continuing into
Thursday. Prefrontal, southwesterly winds of 10-20kt are
expected Wednesday- Thursday morning, followed by northerly
winds of 15-25kt behind the font. This is expected to support an
increased risk of hazardous conditions for small craft.
Additionally, the warmest waters may see wind gusts approach
gale force behind the front on Thursday. Barring significant
changes, marine headlines will eventually be needed for most, if
not all, waters. High pressure builds in behind the front,
allowing winds and seas to lay down some by Friday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for 3/10 (Tuesday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        86/1974  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   74/2000  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      84/2000  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   86/1974  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         85/2009  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    84/1974  (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 3/11 (Wednesday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        86/2015  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   73/1982  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      83/2016  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   83/1974  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         84/2000,2015  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    86/2015  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for AMZ158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RM
AVIATION...RJ
MARINE...RM/RCF/RJ