Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

346
FXUS62 KMHX 201750
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
150 PM EDT Tue Oct 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor adjustments to ongoing headlines.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A slow moving nor`easter continues deepen well offshore,
impacting the coastal areas.

2) Dry with cooler than avg conditions continue through the
week.

Marine: Gale Warnings continue in effect. Prolonged period of
strong winds and high seas as nor`easter lingers offshore
through at least mid week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Vertically stacked low pressure will meander off
the NC and Mid-Atlantic coast through mid week bringing
prolonged strong north to northeasterly winds across ENC.
Guidance continues to show the low wobbling a bit off the coast
while deepening tonight as it slowly lifts northward off the
Mid- Atlantic coast, as the system remains cut-off from the mean
flow aloft. Winds are expected to increase again this afternoon
and evening, with another surge potentially on Wednesday, so
will make very little change to winds at this time. It is not
until Thursday that the low will begin to accelerate away from
the East Coast as a northern stream shortwave digs into the Mid-
Atlantic and Northeast.

Tight pressure gradients between the offshore low and high
pressure across the Eastern CONUS will bring strong north to
northeast winds across the region with the strongest winds
across the Outer Banks where gusts 45-50 mph will be possible.
A Wind Advisory remains in effect from Duck to Ocracoke through
this evening.

The strong winds continue to bring large surf along the coast
as well as coastal flooding impacts along vulnerable locations
of the coast, especially along Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands
where dune structure is fragile. The National Parks Service and
NCDOT have recently reported substantial beach erosion from
south Nags Head to Buxton, along with significant overwash
occurring on side streets in Rodanthe. Due to hazardous road
conditions and flooding, NC-12 remains closed from the Marc
Basnight Bridge to Rodanthe, and ferry service remains
suspended in certain locations.

Each subsequent high tide cycle will continue to threaten the
dunes, further, and the threat of additional impacts to Hwy 12
remain. Minor soundside flooding is also a concern along
southern portions of the Pamlico Sound, including Frisco,
Ocracoke, areas of Downeast Carteret Co. A Coastal Flood
Warning remains in effect for Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands and
a Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for the Northern
Outer Banks and East Carteret County. Additionally, a high surf
advisory continues for Cape Lookout and points north through
the OBX.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Pleasantly cooler air mass that has advected in
will remain with us through the next several days with temps a
bit below climo. Maximum temperatures through the period are
expected to remain in the 60-70 degree range. Overnight lows
will range from the 40s inland to the 50s coast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Pred VFR conditions expected through the period. Winds will
continue to gust 15-25 kt through this evening, diminishing this
evening. Stratocu will increase along the coast late tonight and
Wed. Cigs along the Outer Banks may occasionally drop to MVFR.

Outlook (Thursday through Sunday): VFR and breezy conditions
are expected to continue through the next several days as the
offshore low remains well offshore and high pressure to the
north. Inland winds would be highest during the daytime with
better mixing and gusts up to around 20 kt each day.

&&

.MARINE...
Very dangerous marine conditions will continue through the week
as low pressure deepens well off the NC coast but continue to
supply a steady fetch of strong n-nerly winds into ENC with
large east- northeasterly swells.

Latest obs show N-NNE winds 15-25 kt across the rivers and 20-30
kt gusting 25-35 kt across the coastal waters, with seas 5-7 ft
south of Lookout and 10-15+ ft north. Most guidance shows winds
increasing a bit this evening and overnight as low pressure
continues to deepen as it wobble off the coast while slowly
drifting northward over the next couple of days. So will
maintain the Gale Warning for most of the coastal waters as well
as the Pamlico Sound. Will not see much improvement in the seas
through mid week.

Outlook (Thursday through Sunday): Winds will diminish sufficiently
Thursday that the sounds and rivers are expected to briefly
drop below SCA criteria, however very large seas as high as
10-15 ft will continue over the coastal waters. Winds and seas
increasing again Friday into the weekend as strong high pressure
builds in from the north.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-199-203>205.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ196-204.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NCZ203.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ203-205.
     Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ203>205.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NCZ204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ131-230-
     231.
     Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ135-186.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ137.
     Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ150-152-154.
     Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ156.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ158.
     Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ180-182-184.
     Gale Warning until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ188.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CQD/SK
AVIATION...CQD/SK
MARINE...CQD/SK