Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

236
FXUS62 KMHX 191112
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
712 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation Disco Updated.

Previous disco...Heat Advisory has been issued for most of
mainland ENC.

Marine Headlines have been slightly tweaked for timing, largest
change was the extend the PamSound SCA into tonight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Hot and humid for the next few days. Heat headlines active
for today and potentially again on TUE and WED.

2) Unsettled pattern through middle of the upcoming week. Risk
of strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall.

3) After a strong front moves through the area late WED into
THU, a brief reprieve from the heat end of next week, though
showers and tstorms chances remain above CLIMO until next
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot and humid conditions will continue through
the weekend. Heat Adv in place for SUN for all but one zone of
mainland ENC. Heat index values 105-110 deg through early
evening. We will see a dip in heat MON with greater cloud
coverage through the day and more rain helping bump down MaxTs
into the upper 80s and low 90s, but SWern zones may still
require heat headlines. TUE and WED MaxTs climb back into the
low 90s for most and afternoon Tds approaching 80deg will bring
heat headlines back into play.

KEY MESSAGE 2...There are several factors expected to support
an increasingly active pattern into next week.

Upper level troughing will continue to strengthen over the
Eastern U.S. with ridging shifting away from the area. Persistent
S-SWerly flow E of the trough, potentially with a subtropical
connection, should act to enhance low-mid level moisture across
the area. Meanwhile, heating of a moistening boundary layer
should lead to sufficient instability and reduced inhibition in
support of periods of convection.

Lee- side troughing and, eventually, a frontal boundary that
will reach the FA by MON should provide areas of enhanced low-
level forcing today with gradually improving mid and upper
level flow becoming more conducive to organized storm modes as
trough aloft sharpens.

Today, the SFC front will approach the FA, though model to
model timing differences still in place. General trend appears
to be a slight slow down of the front entering the Nern FA,
sometime this evening or the first half of tonight. SPC`s
outlook for today features a Slight Risk (lvl 2/5) for the bulk
of the area. Moisture pooling and low level convergence will be
maximized this afternoon into tonight as the cold front
approaches. PWATs peak on the order of 2 and 3/4in in
conjunction with increasing afternoon and evening instability.
First round of convection is expected across the Inner and Outer
Banks and inland waters, initiated with the seabreeze. SBCAPEs
on the order of 4kJ/kg are expected just ahead of the seabreeze
which could lead to quickly developing tstorms. Main concerns
will be the potential for damaging wind gusts, heavy rain and
freq lightning late afternoon into tonight. WPC continues its
Slight Risk for excessive rainfall today.

Additionally, while guidance remains mixed, there is a modest
signal for low pressure development across the northeastern
Gulf. The National Hurricane Center has increased probability
of development a bit to 60/60% over the next 2/7 days. Though
no explicitly tropical impacts are expected from this system
locally, this low should act to enhance rainfall along the SE
coast by further increasing Gulf moisture transport from its
Eern half through early next week while the stalled lingers
across the region.

Tropics aside, deterministic and machine learning guidance
continue to show a good signal for some strong to marginally
severe thunderstorm potential during this period of active
weather. Right now the strongest signal for severe potential
through TUE is today. Given increased forcing from the
approaching front and the potential tap of subtropical moisture,
heavy rain and some hydro impacts may eventually be realized.

MON, the stalled boundary located somewhere between the Neuse
River and the NC/VA border, inland troughing persisting, and
plenty of moisture influx from the S and SW will keep cloudy and
active forecast in place. Fortunately, the mid and upper level
trough over NECONUS will be pushing offshore, ending the little
mid and upper level dynamic support system for organized
convection. MON night, the boundary lifts back N, "warm-
sectoring" the FA once again for TUE and WED.

A stronger front is forecast to approach and cross the area WED
into THU, posing the next threat for severe weather later in the
forecast period. Upper level pattern for this FROPA appears more
supportive of stronger storms than the SUN/MON front with a
sharper trough aloft digging further S than the weekend trough,
with the base of this trough actually crossing directly
overhead.

KEY MESSAGE 3...WED/THU stronger front is forecast to make it
through the entirety of the land area of ENC, but still stall
offshore. This will lead to mostly N-NEerly flow late week into
the weekend, cutting down on the heat (mid to upper 80s/upper
60s splits into the weekend). Severe threat appears minimal
behind the midweek front, but the multi day period of showers in
the forecast could lead to hydro issues.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR flight cats expected outside of storms into tonight with SW
breeze. Better convective coverage expected today in two
rounds, first along the seabreeze this afternoon into the
evening and a second round of more organized convection ahead of
and along a front pushing from N to S later this evening into
tonight. Both rounds of storms could lead to periods of sub-
VFR. A few stronger storms are also possible, with potential for
damaging wind gusts, heavy rain, and frequent lightning.

Guidance is hinting at post-frontal stratocu and potentially
dense fog along and immediately behind (north) of the front.
Will include FEW to SCT cloud groups047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ195-196-
     199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154-156-
     158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CQD/CEB
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...CQD/CEB