Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

122
FXUS62 KMHX 021826
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
226 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Heat advisory has been issued for most of ENC for FRI. Extreme
Heat Watch has been issued for portions of ENC for SAT.

Aviation and Marine Discos updated, little changes here.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dangerously hot and humid conditions for this 4th of July
weekend into early next week.

2) A more active pattern takes shape next week, bringing rain
back into the forecast early to at least the middle of next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Heat and humidity will build into ENC from the
north and west Friday into the weekend. High impact heat and
humidity is expected, as the peak of it will be during the busy
4th of July holiday weekend (Saturday through Monday) with highs
expected to reach well into the 90s inland, possibly reaching
100 in some locales, with upper 80s to mid 90s beaches. The
combination of the heat and humidity will push heat indices
towards the 105-110 degree range or slightly higher this
weekend. Overnight lows will also be warm due to the increased
Tds, with MinTs around 80 near the coast, and mid 70s interior.
Heat index values remain just below advisory criteria through
this afternoon. A Heat Advisory has been issued for the bulk of
ENC for FRI, only locations not included in the advisory are
Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands, and immediate coastal zones of
the Crystal Coast, where the seabreeze circ is expected to keep
advisory criteria just out of the forecast, but MaxAppTs in
these zones will still be hot, low to mid 90s. An Extreme Heat
Watch has been issued for SAT in zones generally N of HWY70
where MaxAppT values reach into the 110-115deg range. Another Heat
Advisory WILL be needed for the Holiday and remain probable
SUN through MON, possibly lingering into TUE of next week.

NWS probabilistic Heat Risk values peak Saturday into Monday in
the major range with some extreme risk areas inland Sunday and
Monday. The chance for extreme heat risk remains similar
Sunday through Monday with probabilities peaking around 40-60%
across northern sections and 20-40% south with the compounding
days and little relief during the nighttime periods. Those
sensitive to heat and anyone planning on spending ample amounts
of time outside this weekend into early next week should monitor
the forecast trends.

With the ridge of high pressure building in, a cap will develop
with little to no shower or thunderstorm relief through
Saturday. The ridge begins to break down Sunday but guidance has
backed off with extent of late day showers and storms to less
than 15 percent.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Return to a pattern of increased shower and
tstorms chances next week. A series of shortwaves, inland
troughing, and a very slow moving backdoor front will eventually
cross the FA mid-week leading to a diurnally driven, summer-
time PoP forecast through much of the long-term period. TUE
currently has the highest PoPs (50-70% TUE afternoon) when
moisture peaks ahead of the front and a pair of shortwave
troughs aloft traverse NECONUS.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Pred VFR conditions through the TAF period. Cannot rule out
shallow ground fog developing in some locations again late
tonight but it should have little impact to operations and
dissipate quickly after sunrise. Winds will generally be light
with the sea breeze developing this afternoon with winds around
5-10 kt. Have added 6sm MIFG for terminals where forecast calls
for winds to decouple tonight, and have added TEMPO MVFR fog
groups for EWN and OAJ. Rinse and repeat forecast for FRI; light
winds early with some diurnal cu until the seabreeze rolls
through.

Outlook (Friday through Monday): Dry weather is expected to
prevail with pred VFR conditions through Sunday, but could see
patchy fog and low stratus each morning. Winds will be light
through the period with high pres in vicinity. Upper ridge
breaks down Monday with shortwave energy bringing increasing
chances for showers and thunderstorms and sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs show E-SE winds 5-10 kt with seas 2-4 ft. Similar
conditions expected through tonight with SE-S winds less than 15
kt and seas around 2-4 ft.

Outlook (Friday through Monday): The Bermuda high remains
dominant into the weekend with light winds 5-15 kt and seas
around 2-3 ft. Bermuda high pulls offshore late Sunday into
Monday with a front slowly dropping south across the Mid-
Atlantic serving to tighten gradients a bit and expect winds to
increase to around 10-20 kt and seas building to 2-4 ft.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for 7/3 (Friday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        98/1954  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   93/2014  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville     100/2019  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   92/1998  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston        102/1954  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    96/2019  (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 7/4 (Saturday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        95/2023  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   94/2020  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      99/2002  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   93/1997  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston        104/1902  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    98/1993  (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 7/5 (Sunday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        99/1990  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   92/2018  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville     100/2002  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   93/2020  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston        104/1902  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    97/1990  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Friday for NCZ029-044>047-
     079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198-203.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for NCZ029-044>047-080-094-193.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CEB
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...CEB