Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

234
FXUS62 KMHX 281839
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
239 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Issued a Small Craft Advisory through tonight for the Duck to
Oregon Inlet zone for seas to 6 feet.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) King Tides will bring the potential for continued minor
coastal flooding through Thursday.

2) Warming temps to above climo mid to late week with mainly dry
dry conditions expected. Small rain chances late Sunday into
beginning of the work week.

Marine: Elevated seas will cont the SCA conditions through
Thursday evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Quasi stationary high pres sprawling across the
Mid- Atlantic and low pressure well off the FL coast will
result in cont northeasterly flow across the region today. The
high waves combined with King Tides this week will lead to
additional minor coastal flooding impacts on the OBX.

For Hatteras Island, seas offshore are in the ~6-7 foot range,
but the long period swells will continue to cause issues for
vulnerable areas. For ocean-side: high tide is around 0945 PM
EDT this evening. The National Parks Service and NCDOT have
reported substantial beach erosion from south Nags Head to
Buxton, along with significant overwash occurring on side
streets in Rodanthe. Due to hazardous road conditions and
flooding, NC-12 remains closed from the Marc Basnight Bridge to
Rodanthe.

Minor coastal flooding of vulnerable locations will be likely
well into this week despite the diminishing of winds, with
"sunny day" flooding across much of the tidal regions of
coastal ENC around times of high tide, then slowly improve as
the King Tides ease later in the week and into the weekend.
Coastal flood advisories continue through the high tide cycle on
Thursday with the potential to be extended further in time.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Quasi stationary dry high pres cont to sprawl
across the region with weak coastal troughing offshore. Some
moisture has pushed inland today bringing a few sprinkles or
light rain showers to locations south of highway 70, as well
as portions of the OBX. For the latter half of the week into
the weekend, hts/thicknesses build further, and temps climbing
back to ~10 degrees above climo with highs upr 70s to near 80
inland to low 70s OBX. Low temps will warm above climo as well
with readings in the mid 50s for most locales away from the
immediate coast.

High pres ridge may begin to break down as early as Sunday, but
recent runs from EC/AIFS cont to keep a stronger high in place.
May have to wait until a stronger srn stream system sweeps
across the Deep South and into the region later next week to
see next good chance for appreciable rain. For now, pops remain
quite low for late Sun into Mon ~30% to account for the small
shower chances.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Pred VFR across rtes this afternoon but an area of light
showers moving across rtes south of Hwy 70 bringing a brief
period of MVFR cigs. Plenty of low level moisture in place and
expect low stratus and patchy fog to develop once again tonight
bringing sub-VFR conditions. Inland locations have the highest
probabilities (60-80%) of seeing IFR or lower conditions,
highest probabilities west of highway 17. Greatest restrictions
expected from low cigs with vsbys mainly 3-5 mi as clouds will
limit radiational cooling. Stratus will gradually lift through
the morning Thursday with pred VFR expected around mid-day.

Outlook (Thu night through Sun): Expect VFR conditions to
continue during the daytime through at least Sun with quasi-
stationary high pres over the region. Coastal sections could see
ocnl MVFR STCU at times with flow cont off the Atlantic, as
well as bouts of overnight fg and low stratus inland with winds
quite calm the next several nights.

&&

.MARINE...
Currently seeing E to NE winds around 10-20 kt across the waters
with gust around 25-30 kt near the Gulf Stream, and seas around
5 to 7 ft. Buoys east of Nags Head reporting 6 ft seas, so have
added the waters from Duck to Oregon Inlet to the SCA through
tonight. SCA continues through Thursday evening south of Oregon
Inlet as it will take a while longer for seas to subside near
the Gulf Stream. Winds will gradually diminish tonight into
Thursday.

Outlook (Thu night through Sun): Winds/seas diminish by Thu
evening, though respite may be rather short-lived, as building
seas are possible once again later in the weekend into early
next week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ195-196-
     199-203>205.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196-
     203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Thursday night for
     AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SK/TL/RJ
AVIATION...SK/TL
MARINE...SK/TL/RJ