Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

081
FXUS62 KMHX 042331
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
731 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Active SCA will be allowed to expire as previously scheduled.
Minor adjustments to sensible Wx grids for tonight. Updated
aviation disco for 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Below normal temps expected again overnight, warming up
Friday into the weekend.

2) Next chance of precip Sun evening into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Low pressure well offshore will continue to push
N-E away from coast overnight. Trended towards the cooler
temp guidance overnight with strong radiational cooling
conditions expected...with lows generally 55-60 deg.

Friday into the weekend...low offshore is forecast to push
further out to sea with high pressure becoming anchored off the
coast. This will bring steady S-SW`rly flow, increasing low
level thicknesses, and warming temps with highs forecast to get
back into the low to mid 90s inland and 80s along the coast and
OBX Fri, Sat, and Sun bringing a return to more summer like
temps. Lows only get down into the 60s/70s each night not
providing much relief from the heat each day. While we will stay
below heat headline criteria, the culmination of hot temps in
the day and warm temps at night are forecast to lead to an
elevated risk of seeing moderate HeatRisk impacts which would
affect those sensitive to heat and those without proper cooling
or hydration.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Guidance is coming into better agreement that a
cold front will track across ENC Sunday night into Monday. This
front would bring our next best chance at some precipitation to
ENC Sun evening into Mon/Tue. Depending on the exact timing of
the front there would be an attendant thunderstorm risk as well,
though latest guidance does suggest with a nocturnal frontal
passage the thunderstorm threat would be minimal. Either way we
are monitoring trends in the fronts timing in case the
thunderstorm risk increases. Winds look to become NE`rly behind
this front and with low level thicknesses also lowering, this
will result in temps lowering towards the middle of next week
closer to seasonal norms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR flight cats overnight. The afternoon seabreeze has pushed
through the Inner Banks and is currently approaching inland TAF
sites, winds shifting SEerly behind it, lasting through the
evening. Winds become light and variable to calm as high
pressure moves overhead and gradually shifts offshore. 00Z
sounding shows moisture starved atmosphere through the lower
levels and with no recent rainfall, not expecting any fog
formation despite the SKC, calm winds, and temps cooling below
normal again through the overnight. VFR continues FRI under SKC
with light W-SWerly breeze developing by midmorning becoming
more Serly behind the afternoon seabreeze.

Outlook: High pressure will remain centered offshore this
weekend before pushing out to sea ahead of an approaching cold
front. Predominantly VFR conditions are expected through the
weekend with high pressure in control. As we get into early
next week a chance at some sub-VFR conditions is noted as
showers and tstms associated with an incoming cold front could
bring some reduced vis/ceilings to ENC Sun night and Mon.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs show N-NE winds 5-15 kt with seas 3-5 ft (highest
across the central waters). SCA continues for one more hour over
the central waters with lingering 6 ft seas over outer portions
of these zones. Low pressure will continue to slowly pull away
from the coast tonight as high pressure builds in from the W.
Winds will continue to veer and grad diminish tonight, becoming
variable less than 10 kt with seas 2-5 ft. Light and variable
winds to start Fri, becoming S 5-15 kt in the afternoon with 2-4
ft seas.

Outlook: A more typical warm-season pattern persists through the
weekend with south to southwesterly flow and localized surges
in the late afternoon and evening associated with thermal
gradients. A frontal passage early next week will bring the
next wind shift and threat for showers and thunderstorms to our
waters.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through Friday evening for NCZ196-204-
     205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ152-
     154.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CQD/RCF
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...CQD