Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

978
FXUS62 KMHX 091900
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
300 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Gale Warnings now in effect for much of the coastal waters.

Flood Watch issued for coastal counties.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Wet and breezy weekend is expected as deep tropical moisture
overspreads the Carolinas. Heavy rain is likely, focused along
the coast, with gusty winds along the coast.

2) An isolated tornado risk in embedded thunderstorms is
possible Saturday night into Sunday.

3) Coastal flooding and high surf concerns for coastal
communties this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A plume of tropical moisture characterized by
2"+ PWATs and dewpoints in the 70s is forecast to get pulled
north through the southeastern CONUS over the weekend to the
east of the northward-advancing remnants of TC Isaias. At the
surface, a warm front/coastal trough will trudge north along
the southeastern coastline, likely with a weak, non-tropical
area of low pressure developing along it. Along and ahead of the
warm front, a strong southeasterly LLJ will develop, supporting
increasing WAA and moisture transport into the area with a
shield of moderate to heavy rain developing across the coastal
Carolinas. Along and just behind the warm front, the precip
will likely become more banded and contain some embedded
convective elements with very heavy rain. It`s these bands that
will pose the greatest risk of flooding. The time period of most
concern for these heavy rates and flooding potential are
overnight Sat night into early Sun morning. Convective guidance
suggests rainfall amounts as high as 4-6"+ are possible if those
bands manage to reach the coast. As is often the case with
convection nearing the coast, whether some of the moisture
transport will be cutoff by strong convection over the Gulf
Stream is in question. If this happens, amounts would be quite
a bit less for areas outside of the coastal waters. 09/12Z REFS
LPPM has come up with amounts however, suggesting amounts in
the 4-6+" range possible for the immediate coast and OBX zones.
For this reason, have gone ahead and issued a Flood Watch for
all but the interior ENC zones effective later Sat afternoon
through early Sun afternoon.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Possibility of convective elements reaching the
coast would warrant a tornado risk later Sat evening as the
aforementioned warm front lifts through ENC. Plenty of low level
helicity in place with the inc serly flow in place and strong
veering wind profile downstairs. The greatest tor threat would
likely be focused near the srn/sern coast where better
instability advects onshore. For Sunday, flow becomes more
unidirectional with swrly low level winds ensuing during the
aftrernoon. While helicity wanes, better instability will be in
place due to daytime highs expected in the low 80s and TD`s in
the 70s. Will have to watch for continued severe threat Sunday
afternoon ahead of the cold front, esp if there are some breaks
in the cloud cover.

The remnants of Isaias are forecast to round the upper level
ridge and move off the Northern Mid-Atlantic Coast early next
week. Drier air then moves in behind it with drying conditions
developing Sun night into Mon.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Strengthening onshore winds, building seas, and
higher than normal astronomical tides may support some coastal
impacts this weekend. There remains uncertainty on the magnitude
of impacts, especially given the shorter-duration of the
stronger winds, as well as what should be a weaker swell
compared to the recent Nor`easter. With that in mind, there will
be an increased risk of rip currents and large waves, at a
minimum. High Surf Advisory remains in effect between Ocracoke
and Oregon Inlets focused on Sunday. Additionally, some of the
most vulnerable locations along the Outer Banks may see at least
some minor issues, especially with Sunday morning`s high tide
(7-9am). There may also be some minor coastal flooding around
sounds and tidal waterways around the Crystal Coast due to the
higher astronomical tides.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High level clouds will cont to stream through the region as
upper level winds pull moisture from Isiais across ENC. Clouds
will lower to around 10k ft by Sat morning, then further to
MVFR levels late Sat morning and esp afternoon, along with rain
breaking out. Winds strengthen out of the ne late tomorrow
morning with gusts approaching 20 kt by noon.

Outlook (Sat night through Wed): Widespread rain, heavy at
times, and gusty nerly to erly winds Sat night along with likely
IFR conditions. Potential for embedded TSRA Sat night, esp
coasstal terminals. Clearing conditions expected by Monday but
with gusty wrly to nwerly winds behind it.

&&

.MARINE...
Good boating conditions are expected to continue through tonight
with nerly winds gradually inc overnight to 10-20 kt. Nerly
gradient strengthens through the day Sat, with winds ramping up
to gales later in the afternoon from S to N across the coastal
waters. For the sounds and rivers, SCA winds develop with these
nerly pinched gradient winds.

Outlook (Sat night through Wed): Strong nerly winds turn to the
east and gradually weaken below gales later Sat night as winds
turn further to the s and sw. Gales remain for the outer waters
with this swrly flow on Sunday. For the rivers and sounds, winds
should remain in the strong SCA range with speeds of 20-30 kt
expected. In addition to the winds, nearshore seas are expected
to peak in the 6-10ft range at 7-8s. For the outer coastal
waters, seas may reach 8-11ft.

Thunderstorms capable of strong winds and waterspouts will be
possible as well, mainly Saturday night into Sunday. Conditions
gradually improve by Sun evening with clearing returning by
Monday morning as high pressure begins to build in.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon
     for NCZ047-081-092-094-194>196-198-199-203>205.
     High Surf Advisory from midnight Saturday night to 8 PM EDT
     Sunday for NCZ204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to midnight EDT Sunday
     night for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 2 AM EDT Sunday for
     AMZ136-137.
     Gale Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for
     AMZ150-180.
     Gale Warning from 5 PM Saturday to 2 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ152-
     154.
     Gale Warning from 2 PM Saturday to midnight EDT Saturday night
     for AMZ156-158-186-188.
     Gale Warning from 5 PM Saturday to 2 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ182-
     184.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Saturday to 8 PM EDT Sunday for
     AMZ230-231.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TL/MS
AVIATION...TL/MS
MARINE...TL/MS