Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

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FXUS62 KMHX 062359
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
659 PM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Severe potential all but over across eastern NC this evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Waning shower and thunderstorm threat through the rest of the
evening with lingering low clouds.

2) Cooler, drier, and more seasonable behind the frontal
passage this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Main front is now making its way across eastern
NC this hour with band of showers and an isolated thunderstorm
now focused east of Highway 17. All precipitation should work
offshore by midnight, and until then overall environment does
not support an ongoing severe threat. Lingering low clouds are
likely into the overnight hours before a surge of dry air ushers
in mainly clear skies to start Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A more seasonably dry airmass will be ushered
in for the weekend behind the front. Expect a return to mostly
sunny skies and highs in the upper 60s to low 70s Sat, then
cooler yet for Sun with 60-65. Lows will be in the 40s, with
some 30s for some of the normally colder spots. We will have to
monitor the temp forecast for any frost concerns Sunday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecast confidence is moderate over the next 6 hours and high
through 00z Sunday.

Main cold front is currently working its way across eastern NC
with waning band of precipitation primarily affecting areas east
of a line from OCW-EWN-NJM. Thunder threat will be confined
southeast of EWN, but overall severe threat appears to be done
with the main hazard being an isolated gust up to around 25-30
kt.

Beyond this threat, question remains on how long post-frontal
stratus will hang around before dry air scours it out. REFS
probabilities show rapidly declining CIGs through 06z, but LAMP
hangs on to at least MVFR until around sunrise. Normally would
give more credence towards the LAMP as this is more in line
with typical post-frontal patterns here, but upstream obs do
show a strong clearing trend. Therefore, leaned forecast towards
a faster erosion of sub-VFR cigs and improvement to VFR
overnight.

Only some cirri to contend with tomorrow as high pressure takes
control with NW winds up to 10 kt.

Outlook: An extended period of VFR conditions is expected much
drier airmass remains over the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Increasing southerly winds through all area waters as a cold
front approaches from the west later today. Gusts should remain
generally below 25 knots ahead of the front. Behind the front,
winds switch to the north/northwest, gusting to near 20 knots.
Gusts exceeding 25 kt will likely be concentrated beyond 20nm
offshore, so no headlines are in effect. Seas will persist at
3-5 ft nearshore and near 4-6 ft offshore through today. The
cold front moves through this evening into the overnight hours
for our waters, and ahead of this boundary strong thunderstorms
capable of gusty winds and a brief waterspout are possible.
Behind the front, high builds in and winds gradually lighten
through Saturday.

Outlook (Saturday night through Tuesday): High builds in this
weekend into next week, keeping winds below 20 kts and skies
rain-free. Despite the decrease in winds, elevated seas may
linger through the weekend for 20-60nm zones at around 4-6 feet,
and an isolated 6 foot wave is possible just within 20nm
primarily for waters in Raleigh Bay.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MS/RJ
AVIATION...MS
MARINE...MS/RJ