Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

549
FXUS62 KMHX 291037
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
637 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Lowered rain chances for today.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unsettled weather continues into today as stalled frontal
boundary remains near the region, although coverage remains
uncertain.

2) Increasing mid-level ridging next week cuts down on rain
chances but brings a return of uncomfortable heat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Unsettled pattern will linger through this
weekend across eastern NC as upper trough continues to linger
over the eastern CONUS and stalled front sits to our north and
west. Ahead of the frontal boundary, a deep plume of Gulf
moisture continues to stream northeastward along the coast of
the Carolinas, characterized by PWATs of 2"+ per mesoanalysis.
As is typical overnight, focus of convection is waning over the
Albemarle Peninsula with loss of heating while activity begins
to blossom offshore.

Main focus in the near term is development of low stratus and
some patchy fog with very weak winds and saturated boundary
layer. Observations are already showing some spotty development
across the inner coastal plain and expect this to expand as we
near dawn, with highest probabilities of low clouds west of
Highway 17.

Later today, this will play a role in the amount of convective
coverage. Stalled front will remain in the area and provide a
potential focal point for development and upper troughing will
linger (although it is forecast to begin lifting out of the area
later in the day, limiting overall coverage). However, like
yesterday, with very weak flow lower clouds will likely take
their time eroding and could significantly hamper overall
instability. NBM probabilities for rainfall are likely too
aggressive and capped at high-end chance for now. Best chances
for more robust convection will likely be farther north along
the edge of the stratus deck where differential heating zones
will develop - this favors areas along and north of Highway 264
particularly in the afternoon and evening. Given weak shear, a
strong storm is unlikely but deep moisture continues to point to
a torrential rainfall threat. WPC has retained our area in a
Marginal (Level 1 of 4) risk of excessive rainfall for today to
account for this.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Shower and thunderstorm coverage gradually wanes
next week as upper ridging builds into the region from the west.
Cannot completely rule out an isolated shower or storm through
the period along sea and sound breezes although activity will
likely be short-lived. The main story will be the building heat
with highs expected to climb into the 90s early next week and
peaking in the mid to upper 90s as we move into the middle of
the week. Heat headlines may be needed as early as Wednesday
with forecast heat indices climbing above 105, especially along
the coast and inland counties along and south of US70.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
# --- AMD NOT SKED has been appended to EWN TAFs as the site is
not transmitting through normal channels. The site is still
reporting via telephone so it will be monitored, but not as
frequently as when it is completely operational. The next
closest ASOS is at Cherry Point (KNKT). --- #

Coverage of MVFR cigs and visibility remained largely localized
overnight instead of being particularly widespread, and most
terminals outside of PGV sit at VFR. Thick cirri remains
overhead with band of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms
straddling the Outer Banks and the southern coast this hour. A
few spotty showers and storms may near OAJ/EWN in the next
couple hours, but the best chances will be after 15-16z
migrating from south to north. Skies clear tonight into Sun AM,
and with weak winds and lingering moisture another round of fog
and low stratus is likely.

Outlook: High pressure builds in from the west on Sun and
beyond resulting in more benign flying conditions. Iso shower or
storm cannot be ruled out along area sea and sound breezes.

&&

.MARINE...
Regional observations show benign boating conditions continue
with generally variable winds of 5-10 kts over soundside waters
while further offshore a steady SW wind remains at 10-15 kt.
Seas sit at 2-3 feet with a period of 8-9 sec. Weakening front
will continue to linger near area waters through today,
promoting ongoing chances for showers and thunderstorms focused
in the overnight and early morning hours. Cannot rule out an
isolated stronger storm or two capable of producing gusts in
excess of 35 kt.

Outlook: Latter half of the weekend and early next week, front
pushes offshore and away from the area as high pressure builds
in from the W allowing for more benign marine conditions and
lower chances for precip.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SK/MS
AVIATION...MS
MARINE...SK/MS