Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

707
FXUS62 KMHX 301131
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
731 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast this cycle.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A weakening line of showers and thunderstorms will push
offshore early this morning followed by an MCS moving through
the Carolinas today bringing chances of rain.

2) Rain arrives this weekend as a low pressure system develops
off of the southeast coast on Saturday and drags a frontal
system through the area Saturday night.

Marine: Small craft advisory for the central waters continues
into Friday. Low pressure passing off the coast will bring
heightened winds and seas this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A line of showers and thunderstorms pushing
across ENC early this morning will continue to weaken as it
moves off the coast. Have seen gusts as high as 25-35 mph
earlier as a stronger cell moved through Duplin Co but recently
have mainly been less than 20 mph as the line continues to
weaken. A cold front will follow the line of storms pushing off
the coast shorty after daybreak. Another weak shortwave will
rotate through the upper low centered just north of the Great
Lakes with an attendant MCS pushing from northern GA and across
the Carolinas today. Best chances for precip will be along
southern coastal sections with PoPs decreasing the further
north you go. Could see an isolated elevated thunderstorm along
coastal sections but should remain weak.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Guidance remains in good agreement with a low
pressure system passing just off the coast Saturday bringing
much needed rainfall to the region. As this is happening, an
upper level low centered over Ontario and Quebec will work to
deepen an upper level trough that will begin to push a
supporting wave out of Texas which will eventually elongate into
the frontal system that will accompany the coastal low. The
merged systems will push through Saturday into Sunday and move
offshore but not before some significant rainfall. Probabilities
for at least an inch of rainfall ave increased some, especially
inland which is now around 50-60% to around 75% along the coast.

As far as convection is concerned, currently most of the
instability remains offshore with northerly flow keeping
profiles more stable over land. This should keep rainfall rates
low enough to preclude any flash flooding threat, especially
when paired with the drought conditions in place. Still a lot of
uncertainty in the models regarding how strong the low will get
and will have to monitor as the system gets closer.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Prevailing VFR conditions are expected through the period. An
MCS will bring a 30-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms to
OAJ and EWN (15-25% chance of showers for ISO and PGV) by late
morning/early afternoon. Winds will remain northerly at 5-10 kt
with precip chances for all TAF sites dropping below mentionable
by mid afternoon. High clouds will linger overnight, increasing
to BKN tomorrow morning ahead of our next front.

Outlook: Flight conditions will deteriorate Friday night through
Saturday as widespread rain and low VIS and CIGs overspread ENC.
We`ll dry out on Sunday and return to VFR with winds remaining in
the 5-15 kt range for the next several days.

&&

.MARINE...
A line of weakening showers and isolated thunderstorms will push
across the waters during the pre-dawn hours which could bring a
few brief gusts around 20-30 kt. A cold front will push across
the waters behind the line of showers with winds becoming
northerly around 10-15 kt today. Late this morning through the
afternoon a MCS moves through our waters, with thunderstorm
chances returning for warm Gulf Stream waters where instability
is the highest. A northerly surge around 15-20 kt develops
tonight behind the departing MCS and some of the strongest
HiRes models suggesting a brief period of winds approaching SCA
criteria. Seas have been around 3-5 ft for most waters but the
central waters continues to report seas as high as 6-7 ft. Wave
guidance suggests 6 ft seas continue across the outer portions
of the central waters through Friday, building some with the
wind surge tonight, so will keep the SCA going.

Outlook: Another low pressure system will pass across or just
south of the waters late in the week which will likely bring
another round of Small Craft Advisory conditions Saturday into
Sunday. Currently probs for Gales remains quite low at less
than 15%.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for AMZ152-154.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SK
AVIATION...OJC
MARINE...SK