Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

873
FXUS62 KMHX 082314
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
714 PM EDT Thu Oct 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation section updated for 00Z TAF issuance

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Wet weekend is expected as moisture associated with TC
Isaias overspreads the Carolinas. Heavy rain is likely with
highest amounts focused along the coast.

2) A few stronger thunderstorms are possible on Sunday.

3) Coastal impacts possible this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A plume of tropical moisture characterized by
2"+ PWATs and dewpoints in the 70s is forecast to get pulled
north through the Southeast U.S. over the weekend to the east of
the northward-advancing remnants of TC Isaias. At the surface,
a warm front will trudge north along the Southeast U.S. coast,
potentially with a weak, non-tropical area of low pressure
developing along it. Along and ahead of the warm front, a strong
southeasterly LLJ will develop, supporting increasing WAA and
moisture transport into the area with a shield of moderate to
heavy rain developing across the coastal Carolinas. It`s
expected that this initial swath of precip should support 1-2"
of rainfall for much of ENC. Along and just behind the warm
front, the precip may become more banded in nature, including
with some embedded convective elements. It`s these bands that
will pose the most intense rainfall rates, as well as the
greatest risk of flooding. Convective guidance suggests rainfall
amounts as high as 3-6"+ are possible if those bands manage to
reach the coast. As is often the case in these scenarios, it`s
unclear how far inland the instability axis and, consequently,
the heaviest rates will get. The higher end rainfall scenario is
worth mentioning, but it should also be understood that those
amounts are unlikely to be realized if the instability axis
remains offshore.

As far as model guidance goes, it`s also worth noting that the
majority of guidance has trended higher with rainfall totals,
and the latest forecast amounts reflect this trend.
Additionally, various ensemble and forecast aids show a notable
signal for heavy rain. A Flood Watch may eventually be needed
for a portion of the area if confidence increases regarding the
higher end rainfall totals.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Steady increase in moisture through the weekend
peaks on Sunday contributing to an increase in instability
across portions of ENC, greatest south of Highway 264. Factors
like cloud cover will determine how much we end up getting, but
ensemble averages suggest CAPEs as high as 1000+ J/kg in some
spots. While low- level forcing is in question, it`s a setup
that bears watching for a conditional severe thunderstorm risk.
Machine learning guidance and EFI guidance have changed little
from yesterday, still suggesting at least a marginal threat.

The remnants of Isaias are forecast to round the upper level
ridge and move off the Northern Mid-Atlantic Coast early next
week. Drier air then moves in behind it with a lower chance of
showers and thunderstorms by Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Strengthening onshore winds, building seas, and
higher astronomical tides may support some coastal impacts this
weekend. There is some uncertainty on the magnitude of impacts,
especially given the shorter-duration of the stronger winds, as
well as what should be a weaker swell compared to the recent
Nor`easter. With that in mind, there will be an increased risk
of rip currents and large waves, at minimum. Additionally, some
of the most vulnerable locations along the Outer Banks may see
at least some minor issues, especially with Sunday morning`s
high tide (7-9am). There may also be some minor coastal flooding
around sounds and tidal waterways around the Crystal Coast due
to the higher astronomical tides.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecast confidence is high over the next 24 hours.

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 00z TAF
cycle, with mostly high level cirrus overhead. A few low cumulus
clouds may develop at times, but low CIGs are not expected.
Once again, some MIFG/BR may develop overnight, especially in
the vicinity of OAJ, but a deep/impactful FG is not expected.
Light SW winds today are expected to become northeasterly on
Friday.

Outlook: Conditions change over the weekend as tropical
moisture gets pulled north off the Gulf and into the Carolinas.
This will support periods of low CIGs, widespread RA, and
potentially a TSRA risk. Gusty southeast to south winds are
likely as well, especially Saturday into Sunday along the Outer
Banks.

&&

.MARINE...
Good boating conditions are expected to continue for at least 1
more day as high pressure remains overhead and winds are
generally at, or below, 10-15kt. The one caveat is that
northeasterly winds will build some during the day Friday, and
may approach 15-20kt by the afternoon hours, especially north of
Cape Hatteras.

Outlook: A strong pressure gradient develops in advance of a
warm front and a weak, non-tropical, low that is forecast to
lift north along the Southeast U.S. coastline this weekend. It`s
likely that this will support a period of moderate to strong
east to southeast winds Saturday into Saturday night, followed
by a period of moderate to strong south to southwest winds
Sunday into Sunday night. Most waters should reach Small Craft
Advisory criteria (25kt gusts), but there is the potential for
some waters to reach gale-force winds. Confidence in gales is
highest south of Cape Lookout, and a Gale Watch is now in effect
for those coastal waters. Additional marine headlines will
eventually be needed, including the potential for the Gale
headline to be expanded. In addition to the winds, seas are
expected to peak in the 6-9ft range at 7-8s. For the outer
coastal waters, seas may reach 8-10ft.

Thunderstorms capable of strong winds and waterspouts will be
possible as well, mainly Saturday night into Sunday.

Conditions gradually improve early next week as high pressure builds
in behind the weekend system.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday morning for
     AMZ158-188.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RM/MS
AVIATION...RM/MS/RJ
MARINE...RM