Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

869
FXUS62 KMHX 211053
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
653 AM EDT Thu May 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Lowered PoPs and PotThunder Friday. Front trended slower, so
updated fcst to reflect this.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Areas of fog and low stratus possible for portions of ENC
this morning

2) Unsettled weather expected Thu into next week, bringing sct
to numerous showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...With a similar setup to the past couple nights,
low stratus and areas of fog likely to develop over the SW
portions of the area late this morning. Best chances are in
Onslow/Duplin county, decreasing as you go further north and
east. A weak meso low approaching the crystal coast will bring
scattered cloud cover along the Crystal Coast and coastal Onslow,
potentially dampening the fog threat in this region. As a
result, there is some higher uncertainty for coastal counties on
fog potential. Fog and low stratus will quickly scour out by 9
AM.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The persistent ridging aloft will break down a
tad today into the weekend, slowly increasing our moisture in
mid and upper levels. As a result, we will have a bit more
moisture to play with today as the front approaches from the
north. The front has trended a bit slower with this update, now
entering the CWA around 00Z. This will allow southerly flow
through much of the day, warming us up to near 90F inland, 80s
along the coast. The sea breeze will kick off late this morning,
and we are expecting to produce isolated to scattered
convection with the increased moisture in place. Best chances
along the coast in the morning, then transitioning inland during
the afternoon. While moisture is increased, we still have some
dry air aloft which could inhibit deep convection. However, if
storms overcome this dry layer, steep lapse rates could bring
some gusty winds in the most organized of storms. Where the sea
breeze collides with the approaching cold front in the NW
portion of the CWA PoPs and QPF are maximized.

The front will drop into our CWA this evening and tonight,
eventually stalling across NC through Friday as it encounters
ridging. With the front stalling, easterly flow to the north
of it will keep us a bit cooler and more stable. As a result,
thunder probs are lower for the northern half of the CWA. Along
the Crystal Coast, southerly flow may persist south of the
stalled boundary, and thunder probs are higher here as
instability builds. Weaker lapse rates should keep storms more
tame on Friday and coverage should be more isolated to scattered
compared to today and Saturday. Saturday the front lifts north
again, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected
along it.

Beyond Sat, the front becomes weak as it sits to our north and
diurnal sea and sound breezes become dominant, focusing the
highest shower and thunderstorm chances inland. Each of these
days carries a low, highly conditional severe risk as well per
ML guidance.

Notably high PWATs along the frontal zone should support higher
rainfall rates in convection. However, notable hydro impacts are not
expected due to the recent dry stretch and ongoing drought
conditions. While probs are low, if we do see training storms over
urban areas, minor flooding impacts could be seen despite the
ongoing drought.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Fog and low stratus is impacting much of the coastal plain this
morning, bringing widespread VLIFR obs. This will scour out in
the next 2-3 hours, leading to VFR conditions for most of today,
with sct showers and storms developing in the afternoon. Front
approaches from the north in the evening, with showers and
thunderstorms along it and low ceilings (MVFR becoming IFR)
moving in behind it. Tonight wherever the front stalls we could
see fog in addition to the low stratus as winds will be light to
calm in this region. Any rainfall we get today would make this
outcome more likely.

Outlook: A frontal boundary sagging south into ENC is expected
to bring an increasing risk of SHRA, TSRA, and sub-VFR conditions
Thursday night into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs show SSW winds 5-15 kt with seas 2-3 ft. Summer-
like pattern will continue through today, with lighter winds in
the mornings then increasing to 10-20 kt in the afternoon and
evenings as the thermal gradient tightens. Seas will continue
around 2-3 ft, potentially up to 4 ft during the afternoon and
evening. A frontal boundary is forecast to sag south into the
area this evening/night, then linger near the waters into
Saturday. This leads to lower confidence regarding winds and
seas, but especially wind direction. NE-E winds will develop
behind the front, while remaining SSW ahead of it, generally
5-15 kt. In general, the risk of 25kt+ winds appears low during
this time ahead of the front. There will be an increased risk
of thunderstorms in the region Thursday through Monday.

Outlook: The front lifts back north Saturday, with southerly
flow continuing through the rest of the period. A coastal trough
is expected to set up late this weekend into next week, but
winds are expected to remain below 25 knots through the period.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RJ
AVIATION...RJ
MARINE...RJ