Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

249
FXUS62 KMHX 240741
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
341 AM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Continued trend of increasing winds Sunday afternoon into
Monday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Severe drought conditions remain across North Carolina and
elevated fire concerns persist.

2) Showers and thunderstorms this weekend as front moves
through. Rain chances decreasing for Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Latest update from the NC climate office keeps just
about the entire area under severe drought (D2) conditions with a
small sliver of Martin county under extreme drought (D3) conditions.
The lack of rain continues to be rather noticeable across the
Southeastern US, with rainfall amounts since March 23 running about
10-50% below normal. Locally here in ENC, this equates to rainfall
totals running about 2-5" below normal over that same time period.

Given the ongoing drought, fire weather will continue to be a
concern until a more substantial rain event occurs. A continued
warming and drying trend is forecast into the early part of this
weekend as temps get into the 80s to low 90s through Sat. While Min
RH`s each day will remain low (25-35%), winds gusts are currently
forecast to be below 20 mph outside of a brief period behind the
daily seabreeze which may preclude additional Increased Fire Danger
Statements for the remainder of the week.

Either way, a statewide burn bans remains in effect for all of North
Carolina, with additional fire restrictions at all four national
forests in NC. Please see statements from the Forest Service for
additional information.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A somewhat complex setup in the extended range, as
minor tweaks to the upper level pattern have downstream impacts to
the surface pattern later this weekend and early next week. There
have been some noticeable drying trends between the ensemble
and AI guidance mid next week.

Will see a weak mid level shortwave transit SE`wards along the
periphery of an upper low near the Canadian Maritimes. At the
surface this will leave a stalled frontal boundary over the area
stretching from NW to SE across the Mid-Atlantic. With
increasing moisture advecting into the Carolinas, could see a
few isolated showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and
evening along and just to the south of this front. It is worth
noting that the front is expected to linger further north than
initially forecast. As a result, areas with the best chance to
see some precipitation tomorrow have also shifted north, mainly
north of the CWA. Still, some isolated showers with minimal
precip amount are possible in the vicinity of the Albemarle
Sound. Areas to the south should remain dry and have little to
no forcing for any accumulating rainfall. Further to the west,
our next feature of note will be a surface low and its
associated frontal boundaries which will track E`wards on Sat
and into Sun as a mid level shortwave quickly transits across
the Mid- Atlantic. With low level moisture continuing to
increase, expect scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
across ENC Sat late afternoon and into the overnight hours.
Guidance continues to suggest any storms that do develop will
likely remain sub-severe as deep layer shear generally remains
25 kts or less, instability is meager, and greatest forcing from
the approaching front is located to the north. Rainfall totals
still look to generally remain below 0.5 inches overall.

This will be the beginning of our more active pattern over the
next several days with the upper low to the east pushing out
into the Atlantic and a southern stream jet stream overspreading
the Mid-Atlantic and bringing several mid level disturbances
quickly east into our area. Latest guidance favors a more
progressive pattern overall with quick hitting disturbances
across ENC into late next week.

Guidance has come into some better agreement that as the front on
Sunday pushes offshore a low will develop along this front and
deepen as it slowly tracks east into the central Atlantic. While
precip will finish by Sunday, a decent N`rly surge of winds will
move over the area Sun afternoon into Monday as well.

Trends for Tuesday have become a lot drier, with precip chances
and amounts dwindling. This is due to ridging in the wake of the
low offshore lingering, substantially weakening the approaching
front. There is a scenario at play now where we get no rainfall
on Tuesday. Late week next week will also be worth monitoring
for rainfall probabilities but given general uncertainty in the
upper level pattern and surface features will continue to just
monitor the chances.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Pred VFR conditions expected through the period. SW winds will
become westerly during the day Friday. Once again, a southerly
wind shift is expected this afternoon as the seabreeze advances
inland. Additionally, isolated SHRA and TSRA may develop across
parts of the area this afternoon as moisture, lift, and
instability gradually return to the area.

Outlook: A wetter pattern develops over the weekend and early next
week that could bring periods of sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
The thermal trough is maximized and W/SW winds are gusting to
25-34 knots south of Cape Hatteras. With elevated winds and
seas expected to linger a bit longer than initially forecast,
the SCA south of Cape Hatteras has been extended until Friday
afternoon. Elsewhere, 15 to 20 kt winds with occasional 25 kt
gusts are being observed. Winds and seas will then ease once
again br Fri afternoon down to 5-15 kts with seas lowering to
3-5 ft. There is a chance than another extension of the SCA`s
will be needed as it appears yet another thermal trough will set
up on Fri night allowing for a several hour period of gusty SW
winds to impact the coastal waters between Cape Hatteras and
Cape Lookout but will continue to monitor the situation for now
given it is borderline current forecast wind gusts are just
under 25 knots south of Cape Hatteras.


Outlook: An area of low pressure and its associated fronts are
forecast to move through the ENC waters this weekend with elevated
winds and seas and the potential for thunderstorms. The greatest
thunderstorm risk appears to be on Saturday. Northerly winds
and seas have trended higher with this forecast update, with
still some room to go higher if the above mentioned low ends up
deepening offshore as some guidance suggests.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ154-
     156-158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RCF/RJ
AVIATION...CQD
MARINE...RCF/RJ