Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

950
FXUS62 KMHX 122334
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
734 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Reduced thunder and precip chances through the overnight.

Updated 13/00Z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unsettled pattern expected through Monday

2) Warm and mostly dry conditions expected for much of next
week with high draped over the Southern U.S.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

The environment on Sunday looks fairly similar to today`s.
However, deep layer shear is forecast to be ever-so-slightly
higher (25kt Sunday compared to 15kt today). This may allow a
slightly improved storm organization potential and perhaps a
slightly better chance of a few storms reaching severe, or near-
severe, levels. The primary risk should be strong winds, but
perhaps some hail can occur in the tallest, most sustained,
cores. The focus for convection should be the seabreeze and an
inland trough. The low-level flow may veer to southwesterly,
helping keep the seabreeze less progressive compared to today,
and storms may not be as progressive. With a high PWAT airmass
still in place, this could allow a slight bump up in the risk
for urban and poor drainage flooding, with at least a low-end
risk of flash flooding.

Finally, a cold front will sweep south through the area on
Monday. Guidance continues to trend on the slower side with the
passage, and now this sets up the potential for the front to
move through during peak heating on Monday. This will be
something to watch as deep layer shear is forecast to be higher
(~30kt), and may support a strong/severe thunderstorm risk
conditional on sufficient instability being realized.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Upper level ridging quickly rebuilds across the
Southern U.S. next week. Meanwhile, a notably strong surface
high will nose south along the lee of the Appalachians.
Synoptically this is a very dry pattern for the region. Despite
warming low-level thicknesses beneath the ridge, the
northeasterly flow around the high should help to hold temps
down some. Additionally, the airmass will be drier with less
humidity, making it feel not as hot. It will feel a little more
like fall, especially at night and in the morning.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
In the wake of the earlier scattered showers, another round of
MVFR to IFR cigs appears likely overnight into Sunday morning.
For now, stratus is favored over BR/FG. The TAFs will continue
to show as low as IFR, esp wrn TAF sites. Low CIG should
scatter out and eventually rise to VFR conditions between
15-16z.

Outlook (Sunday through Thursday): Another risk of scattered
showers Sun afternoon with some producing gusty winds, but main
threat is heavy rain. Drier air begins to move in Sunday night
behind cold front, but reinforcing cold front brings more
showers or some storms on Monday, then dry Tuesday. VFR
conditions are then expected to prevail through mid-week.

&&

.MARINE...
South winds of 15-20kt are common across most waters this
afternoon, with some enhancement noted in the vicinity of
various thunderstorm outflow boundaries moving north through the
area. Occasional gusts of 25-30kt will be possible where those
outflows move through. Meanwhile, seas are generally 2-3ft at
5-7s. These conditions are expected to last into Sunday as the
overall weather pattern remains about the same. There will
continue to be a risk of thunderstorms during this time as well.

Outlook: Winds will become westerly Sunday night and lay down
to 5- 15kt for a short time. Stronger northerly winds then
develop from north to south across all waters Monday afternoon
and evening as a reinforcing cold front moves through. The
northerly surge of wind is expected to be accompanied by an
increased risk of 20-30kt winds. Marine headlines will likely be
needed for a portion of the waters Monday into Monday night for
the increased winds. For the coastal waters, seas will quickly
build to 5-8ft with the northerly wind surge. Guidance suggests
an extended period of northeasterly winds and elevated seas, and
marine headlines may be needed for much of the upcoming week
for the nearshore coastal waters for 6ft+ seas.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RM
AVIATION...RM/TL
MARINE...RM