Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

892
FXUS62 KMHX 260805
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
405 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Forecast continues on track with only minor adjustments to the
timing of the Small Craft Advisories from some zones.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Much needed rainfall will continue today with much cooler
temperatures.

2) A progressive pattern continues this week with additional
opportunities for rain mid week and again next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Much needed rainfall continues across ENC today
offering some temporary relief to elevated fire weather
conditions the region has been experiencing. As of 3 AM, MRMS
rainfall estimates showing the greatest rainfall totals across
the coastal plain west of a line from Plymouth to Kenansville
and also along the coast from Swansboro to Cedar Island.
Estimated amounts in these areas range from 1/4 to 3/4 inches
with pockets of higher amounts in the 1 to 2 inch range while
the rest of the FA has seen less than 1/4 inch so far.

Rainfall chances continue today ahead of a mid level shortwave
trough pushing south across the Mid-Atlantic states with
guidance showing additional rainfall amounts around 1/4 to 1/2
inches inland to 1/2 to 1 inches along the coast possible. Could
see a few elevated thunderstorms bringing locally higher precip
rates this morning but the severe threat will be curtailed by
limited instability, especially after the front pushes through
and a strong low level inversion develops.

A sfc low will push east of the Delmarva Peninsula today with
the attendant cold front pushing south across ENC this morning
with a northerly surge developing this afternoon bringing wind
gusts around 20-30 mph. Strong CAA with clouds and precip will
keep temps from warming much today with highs in the mid to
upper 60s this morning with temps falling this afternoon behind
the front.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A progressive pattern will continue through the
week with another low pressure system progged to push across
the area late Wednesday followed by another southern stream
system potentially impacting the area next weekend. Latest
guidance in best agreement with the mid week system while run
to run consistency among the models continues to be poor for
the system next weekend with the possibility for it to be
suppressed to the south, so confidence is not that high in the
forecast details but it is encouraging to see a more active
pattern in the models. While rainfall amounts through the week
will likely not have a tremendous impact with alleviating the
drought, hopefully precipitation and higher humidities will help
reduce the wildfire threat across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An upper level shortwave and an associated cold front will move
through ENC through Sunday morning. Showers will continue to
move through the region overnight into Sun morning, with a few
thunderstorms yet possible esp for southern terminals OAJ and
EWN through around 16Z. A final cold front will push south
through the area Sunday afternoon with a notable northerly wind
shift. Gusty north winds are expected behind this front as
well.

VFR CIGs this evening are expected to gradually lower through
tonight, with most guidance falling to IFR after 11z Sun morning.
Low CIGs are then expected to last well into the day Sunday
before lifting back to MVFR later in the afternoon and evening.
IFR may redevelop later Sun night, esp for KEWN.

Outlook (Monday through Friday): High pressure builds close
enough from the NW to bring all areas up to VFR levels Monday as
drier air begins filtering in and lasts through mid week.
Another front and weak low may bring sub VFR with some showers
on Thursday, exiting on Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure will deepen as it pushes east of the Delmarva
Peninsula with a cold front pushing south across the water this
morning. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue
across the waters today with best chances for thunderstorms
across the outer coastal waters. A northerly surge around 20-25
kt with gusts to around 30 kt will develop this afternoon and
continue through tonight. Cannot rule out a few gusts
approaching Gale force this evening but overall probabilities
are less than 50%. Seas will build this afternoon peaking around
7-10 ft north of Cape Hatteras and 5-8 ft south of Cape
Hatteras tonight. Continue the SCA for all waters with just some
minor timing adjustments.

Outlook: Northerly winds gradually diminish Monday, becoming
less than 15 kt Tuesday into Wednesday as high pressure builds
overhead. Seas will remain elevated, however, with SCA conditions
persisting across portions of the nearshore coastal waters into
Tuesday night. Another low pressure system is progged to pass
north of the area Wednesday night and could see minor SCA
conditions over portions of the nearshore coastal waters
redevelop Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ196-203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT
     Monday for AMZ131-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EDT
     Monday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EDT
     Monday for AMZ136-137.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 4 AM EDT
     Wednesday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EDT
     Wednesday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT
     Tuesday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SEK
AVIATION...TL
MARINE...SEK