Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

645
FXUS62 KMHX 030750
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
350 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated Aviation Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Moisture returns with a cold front and low pressure system
bringing scattered to numerous showers this weekend.

2) Cool high pressure leads to more fall-like temps next week,
but a prolonged period of moderate onshore winds poses localized
coastal flooding concerns for areas along the OBX with
compromised dune structures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A plume of anomalous, and deep, moisture will
get pulled north through the Southeastern U.S. in advance of a
two cold fronts this weekend. The front will initially move
through ENC on Saturday, then stall offshore before lifting back
north on Sunday. This will occur as a weak area of low pressure
rides NE along the front. As the low moves off the coast, it
will drag the front back south through ENC later Sunday into
Sunday night.

Modest heating of a moist boundary layer should allow moderate
instability to build ahead of the front today, especially
across our southern counties south of HWY 70. It`s there where
we expect the greatest coverage of showers and thunderstorms to
be focused this afternoon and evening. Guidance differ some on
the progression of the front on Saturday, but with strong
ridging centered offshore, it stands to reason that the progress
of the front will be slowed, favoring a frontal passage during
peak heating for our southern counties. Moderate instability
plus PWATs AoA climo maximums for early October, suggests a
risk of high rainfall rates at times. Ensemble guidance suggests
0.50-1.50" of rain, on average, in this area. However, where
convection is the most persistent, rainfall totals may reach as
high as 2-3". This may support a risk of urban and poor drainage
flooding. 3-hr flash flood guidance is 3-4" in this area, which
suggests the risk of flash flooding is low based on the
potential higher- end amounts being below FFG. It`s worth
watching, though, given such high moisture content. As such, WPC
has included this area, where the seabreeze and front will meet
this afternoon, in a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall.

On Sunday, guidance differs on how far north the front will get
as it briefly lifts back as a warm front. This doesn`t appear
to impact the ENC from a coverage standpoint. However, if the
front were to lift further north, it could open up the potential
for more instability to be available while the FA is warm
sectored, which could support higher rainfall rates and
amounts. This could also have an impact on temperatures.
Regardless, increased low- mid level convergence interacting
with a very moist airmass should lead to a widespread area of
showers and isolated thunderstorms. For the area at large, the
greatest coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected on
Sunday.

In total, 1-3" of rain appears likely for much of ENC over the
weekend, 2-4" over the area from Greenville S and W. The
highest rainfall amounts expected in an area roughly outlining
Duplin Co to New Bern to Newport/Havelock to Jacksonville,
where there will be the potential for heavy rain both Saturday
and Sunday (compared to just Sunday for the northeastern
counties of ENC). Highly localized weekend totals of 4-6" aren`t
out of the realm of possibility in this area.

The risk of severe thunderstorms continues to look low due to
weak shear and weak mid-level lapse rates. However, perhaps a
few water- loaded downdrafts of 30-40 mph will occur Saturday
afternoon when instability is at its peak.

KEY MESSAGE 2...In the wake of the weekend front, a stiff
NEerly breeze will develop and peak MON night into TUE. This
will lead to building seas and elevated water levels.
Astronomical tide levels will luckily be on the way down, but
seas building to 7ft, though relatively choppy periodicity of 7
sec, but enough to lead to further beach and dune erosion
concerns across the areas with severely diminished dune
structures. Strongest winds of 20-25 kt with higher gusts
expected MON night into TUE morning. Winds remain out of the
N-NE into late- week, but speeds diminish to 10-15kt late TUE
and beyond.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Main forecast concern tonight is the potential for fog/stratus
development. Guidance is less bullish with developing it tonight
compared to last night with winds still AoA 4kt for most of ENC.
HREF/REFS probs reflect this with only around 30-50% chance of
IFR or lower at best. Skies are expected to be mainly clear for
most of the night with mainly thin high clouds, though could see
increasing low clouds toward daybreak ahead of a cold front.
Despite the ongoing low level mixing, SWern zones are likely to
decouple in the early morning hours. Confidence for fog
development is low giving the pluses and minuses and generally
have MVFR vsbys late tonight but there is some potential for
lower cigs/vsbys than forecast. Any fog that develops is
expected to dissipate fairly quickly after sunrise.

A cold front will drop into northern rtes this morning and
stall somewhere south of the Pamlico River in the afternoon.
North of the front, expect MVFR to develop late morning and
persist through the afternoon with the post frontal low level
inversion. Along and south of the front there will be sufficient
instability for shower and thunderstorm development bringing
periods of sub-VFR conditions. PW values will be surging to well
above 2" and some storms could bring locally heavy rainfall.
The front will push south through the area late afternoon and
evening with convection waning with loss of instability.
IFR/LIFR conditions expected to spread from N to S across all
rtes with scattered showers continuing through this evening.

Outlook: A risk of low CIGs and TSRA will accompany a wavy
frontal boundary that will waffle north and south across ENC
over the weekend. The front will finally shift fully offshore
and away from the area Sunday night into Monday. The wind
direction will vary during this time as well, but will become
predominantly north to northeast behind the front Sunday night
into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Boating conditions start with winds SW generally 5-10kt early and
seas around 1-2 ft. A cold front moves through the area today
with a modest northerly surge of wind behind it tonight. Showers
and storms possible over GStream waters. Southerly flow then
briefly returns on Sunday as a weak area of low pressure moves
through ENC, higher chances of more widespread showers and tstorms
SUN.

Outlook (Sat through Tue): At this time, conditions look to
remain below SCA levels through the weekend, but a secondary
front moves through Monday with SCA conditions likely developing
behind it across all coastal waters and larger inside waters, with
winds 15-25 kt and coastal seas building to to 4-6ft, offshore
7-9ft. Winds peak TUE morning and remain NEerly and generally
10-15kt through the rest of the work-week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RM/CEB
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...RM/CEB