Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

491
FXUS62 KMHX 021909
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
309 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Another Heat Advisory has been issued for much of ENC for
Thursday

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dangerous, potentially record-breaking heat to impact the
area through Friday

2) Strong cold front to bring relief from the heat this weekend
into early next week, along with a risk of thunderstorms

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Anomalously warm low-level thicknesses beneath
anomalous ridging aloft has allowed temperatures to reach the
low to mid 90s as of this afternoon. The one exception is along
the OBX where an onshore flow is keeping temperatures in the
upper 80s. Meanwhile, dewpoints in the mid 70s is supporting
heat indices of 105-110 degrees away from the coast. The setup
remains mostly unchanged on Thursday, and another Heat Advisory
has been issued for most of ENC for then. The one difference on
Thursday is that a stronger southerly onshore flow and stronger
seabreeze is expected along and just inland of the Crystal
Coast. It`s expected that this will hold temperatures down just
enough to keep coastal Onslow County and most of Carteret County
below Heat Advisory Criteria. In light of this, those area will
be excluded from tomorrow`s advisory.

Friday continues to have the strongest signal for the peak of
this week`s heat wave, with highs approaching 100 degrees across
the coastal plain, and low to mid 90s along the coast. Even
with another strong seabreeze and southerly onshore flow, it
should get hot enough to reach Heat Advisory criteria even along
the coast. Of note, some inland locations may flirt with
Extreme Heat Warning criteria. Regardless, this will continue to
be a notable, and unusual, late-season heat wave for all of
ENC.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong upper level trough will develop off
the U.S. East Coast over the weekend, and this will help drive a
strong cold front south through the Carolinas on Saturday.
Strong heating of a moist boundary layer ahead of the front
should allow moderate to potentially strong instability to
develop from the Mid-Atlantic south into North Carolina on
Friday. While some residual subsidence/capping may be present
beneath the ridge, especially across NC, guidance show a decent
signal for convection developing upstream of ENC, and making a
run towards the coast during the evening or overnight hours.
While the pattern is supportive of severe weather, the timing is
less favorable for ENC, and there is added uncertainty
regarding any residual influence of the ridge. Consequently,
machine learning guidance have actually backed off some on the
severe weather potential on Friday, which lowers overall
confidence.

On Saturday, the ridge will continue to get suppressed further
south and west with less influence across the Carolinas. This
plus increased forcing along the cold front should support an
improved risk of deep convection, and less limiting factors,
compared to Friday. Interestingly, machine learning guidance has
pulled back some on Saturday as well, and this may be related
to some uncertainty regarding the timing of the front and how
much instability can develop along/ahead of it. Of the two days,
though, Saturday appears to have a better chance than Friday.
We`ll continue to monitor the potential over both days. In
general, the setup favors clusters of thunderstorms, perhaps an
MCS or two, impacting the area with strong to damaging wind
gusts.

Behind the front, temperatures and humidity will get knocked
back down closer to normal for early September, with more
comfortable conditions lasting into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecast confidence is high over the next 24 hours.

Once again, scattered cumulus are developing with the heating
of the day, especially from KISO to KFFA where a weak boundary
is leading to an area of better lift. Along this area, an
isolated SHRA or TSRA appears possible, but confidence is too
low to include a PROB30 mention at KISO or KPGV. Skies should
clear out tonight and, with light winds, this may allow a period
of reduced VIS in BR/MIFG. Probabilistic guidance doesn`t show
much of a signal, but I opted to keep a mention in the TAFs to
keep consistent with the previous forecast. Thursday should be a
repeat of today`s conditions, with afternoon cumulus and VFR
conditions.

NOTE: AMD NOT SKED has been appended to the EWN TAFs as the
site is not transmitting through normal channels. The site is
still reporting via telephone so it will be monitored, but not
as frequently as when it is completely operational. The next
closest ASOS is at Cherry Point (KNKT).

Outlook: The risk of TSRA is likely to increase late Friday
into Saturday as a cold front moves through the area. Confidence
is moderate regarding the timing of the greatest TSRA risk. For
now, the latest guidance shows the strongest signal on
Saturday. Sub-VFR conditions will be possible with any TSRA
during this time. Behind the front, a northeasterly wind shift
will occur, with northeasterly flow continuing into early next
week.

&&

.MARINE...
Southeasterly long-period swell (2-3ft at 10-11s) from the
remnants of "Dolly" will continue to impact the coastal waters
through this evening. Seas may briefly lay down overnight, then
build again on Thursday as a strengthening thermal gradient
supports building south to southwest winds. Those winds are
expected to peak Thursday afternoon into Thursday night at
10-20kt. The risk of thunderstorms is expected to remain LOW
(<10% chance) through Thursday night.

Outlook: A strong thermal gradient will continue to support
moderate southwesterly winds of 10-20kt Friday and Friday night.
A cold front will then move through on Saturday with a
northeasterly wind shift. Winds are expected to remain moderate
through Monday, then lay down as high pressure builds in on
Tuesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures for 09/02 (Wednesday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern         96/2014  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    91/2018  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      101/1932  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    91/1998  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         103/1932  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     95/1998  (NCA ASOS)

Record High Temperatures for 09/03 (Thursday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern         95/2020  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    91/2018  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      101/1921  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    91/1998  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston          98/1993  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     96/2020  (NCA ASOS)

Record High Temperatures for 09/04 (Friday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern         98/1944  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    92/2020  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville       98/1930  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    93/1959  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston          98/1980  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     96/2020  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ029-044>047-
     079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ029-
     044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RM
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...RM