Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

876
FXUS62 KMHX 032336
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
736 PM EDT Sun May 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Added a slight chance of thunderstorms Wednesday. No other
significant changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Mostly quiet weather with steadily increasing moisture to
start the week. Sea breeze worth monitoring for Wednesday.

2) A cold front will move through on Thursday, bringing gusty
winds and increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms, some
of which could be strong to severe.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1..Clear skies and steadily decreasing NW winds
today as high pressure moves overhead. Winds shift back to the
southwest tomorrow allowing dewpoints to climb back up as high
pressure expands across the SE.

As we get into Wednesday, profiles continue to moisten as high
offshore funnels in moist air. There may some residual dry air
at around 700-850 mb, and the state of this dry layer will be
something worth monitoring. Wednesday afternoon`s sea breeze
will encounter an environment with decent bulk shear and LLJ
and some impressive low level helicity. If this dry layer
moistens, it could provide enough instability for isolated
convection to fire up along the sea breeze. With the 40-50kt
LLJ in place the convection would make it easier for strong wind
gusts to slip down, and with the low level helicity in place a
quick spin up would also be in the cards. HOWEVER, this is a
low probability outcome at this point. Things working against
this are the aforementioned dry layer and a lack of upper level
support to produce more organized convection. With the low
probability, but potentially impactful setup at play, elected to
go above NBM thunder probs and add schc thunder mentions
Wednesday PM.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The pattern becomes active again by mid-week. A
positively tilted upper-level trough will move across the
Midwest on Thursday, becoming neutral to negatively tilted over
the eastern US Thursday evening. At the surface, a cold front
will cross the Midwest on Tuesday before stalling
Wednesday/early Thursday across the Appalachians. A low will
develop along this front, but there are slight model
differences in the speed of the front and the strength and track
of the low. General consensus is that the front will cross ENC
late Thursday afternoon/evening.

Isolated showers could start as early as Wednesday night with
increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms through
Thursday, although forcing is the biggest question at that point.
The latest NSSL severe probs show a 10-30% chance of severe
storms with greatest chances being near the coast. Given the
favorable FROPA timing of late afternoon/evening, ample bulk
shear (60+ kt) and sufficient instability, a few strong to
potentially severe storms will be possible. Showers and
thunderstorms ahead of the front could dampen destabilization
and decrease the severe threat, but it`s still too far out to
determine coverage.

In addition to showers and storms, Thursday will bring strong SW
winds with gusts to approximately 30 mph inland and 35-40 mph
along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will move overhead this evening, then shift
quickly offshore later tonight. Light and variable winds beneath
the high will then become southerly by sunrise on Monday as the
high shifts offshore. Those southerly winds are likely to be
gusty at times, especially as the seabreeze develops and moves
inland.

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hrs.
However, overnight tonight, moisture gradually returning within
the developing southerly flow may allow some shallow fog
development, especially at KOAJ and KISO. The FG is not expected
to be impactful, and for now the TAFs will not reflect this
potential due to the marginal nature of the risk.

Outlook: Predominantly VFR flight conditions should persist into
early this week.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas gradually continue decreasing through the day.
Tonight, winds will return to the SW and relax to 5-10 kt with
seas subsiding to 3-4 ft. SW winds will increase to 10-20 kt
tomorrow with seas at 2-3 ft.

Outlook: 10-20 kt SW winds will continue through Wednesday.
A cold front will cross the area on Thursday, increasing winds
and seas both ahead of and behind it. There`s potential for SW Gale
force gusts ahead of the front for most of Thursday across the
coastal waters and Pamlico Sound. Additionally, strong to
potentially severe thunderstorms will be possible.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203-
     205.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...OJC/RJ
AVIATION...RM/MS
MARINE...OJC/RJ