Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

479
FXUS62 KMHX 052300
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
600 PM EST Wed Nov 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push across the region late tonight with high
pressure building into the area Thursday, then slides offshore
on Friday. A weak disturbance moves across the area Friday night
which may bring a few showers along the coast. An Arctic front
will approach the region Sunday bringing a chance of showers and
isolated thunderstorms. A much colder airmass builds into the
region early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 6 PM Wed...

Key Messages...

 - Milder temps tonight with a dry cold front crossing the area
   late tonight.

A weak shortwave and attendant cold front will push across the
area late tonight but moisture and dynamics remain poor and
expect a dry frontal passage. SW winds will bring much milder
min temps than the past few morning with lows expected around 50
inland and mid to upper 50s along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM Wednesday...

Key Messages...

 - High pressure dominates with dry and seasonable temperatures.

High pressure builds into the area on Thursday with weak CAA
during the morning, which quickly wanes through the afternoon.
Temps will be a few degrees cooler with highs in the mid to
upper 60s under mainly sunny skies. Light winds and clear skies
will bring good radiational cooling conditions Thursday night
with lows expected in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Could see some
patchy frost develop in the typically colder locations,
especially across NW portions of the FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 2 PM Wednesday...

Key Messages...

 - A few coastal showers possible Friday night.

 - Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms possible Sunday
   ahead of a strong cold front.

 - An Arctic front will push across the area Sunday night with
   much colder temperatures early next week. Near or below
   freezing temperatures expected Monday and Tuesday nights.

Friday through Saturday...
High pressure slides offshore Friday with a mid-level shortwave
approaching the area which pushes across the area Friday night.
SW return flow bring modest warming with highs in the low to mid
70s. Could see a few coastal showers or perhaps an isolated
thunderstorm Friday night as a weakening coastal trough lifts
across the area, otherwise deep westerly downslope flow and weak
dynamics will keep precip chances minimal through Saturday.
Southerly flow will bring additional warming Saturday with highs
climbing into the mid to upper 70s inland and lower 70s along
the coast. Overnight temps mild Friday and Saturday nights with
lows in the 50s.

Sunday through Wednesday...A strong northern stream trough digs
into the central CONUS this weekend then moves to the East
Coast early next week bringing the coldest airmass of the
season. Moderate southerly flow persists Sunday head of the
attendant Arctic front with scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms developing. Temps will remain well above normal
with high in the mid to upper 70s (lower 70s coast) once again.
The Arctic front is progged to push across the area Sunday night
with strong CAA and gusty NW winds developing on Monday. Monday
and Tuesday will likely see highs in the low to mid 50s, which
is more than 15 degrees below normal for this time of year. Lows
on Monday night expected to drop below freezing with upper
20s/lower 30s across most inland areas and mid 30s to around 40
along the coast. The high pressure axis slides offshore late
Tuesday with SW return flow developing which may keep temps from
dropping quite as cool Tuesday night, but with light winds and
clear skies, areas that decouple could drop below freezing once
again. High pressure remains centered across the Southeast
Wednesday with southerly flow bringing warming temperatures, but
still 5-10 degrees below normal with highs around 60.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 6 PM Wed...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
period. A cold front will then push through the area after
midnight tonight, bringing a windshift to northwesterly and
eventually northerly. VFR conditions will persist, with winds
and dry conditions precluding any fog threat. Some southwesterly
LLWS (~40 knots) is possible ahead of the front tonight for a
few hours. Northerly winds will pick back up Thu, with gusts of
15-20 knots again possible beginning late morning.

Outlook: Predominately VFR conditions are anticipated into this
weekend with high pressure over the area. There may be some
potential for patchy fog Friday morning. Increasing clouds and
moisture expected late this weekend with an approaching frontal
system, but it`s unclear if it will lead to sub-VFR conditions
at the moment.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 6 PM Wed...

Key Messages...

 - Small Craft Advisory conditions continue through Thursday
   morning with improving conditions Thursday afternoon.

 - The potential for Small Craft Advisory conditions returns
   late Sunday becoming likely Monday behind a strong cold
   front.

Through Thursday...Latest obs show SW winds 15-25 kt and seas
3-6 ft. Gradients will continue to tighten through the evening
ahead of a dry cold front with winds increasing to 15-25 kt
with gusts to around 30 kt, and could see occasional gusts near
Gale Force near the Gulf Stream late this evening. Seas will
respond building to 3-6 ft northern waters and 4-8 ft across the
southern and central waters. The front is progged to push
through late tonight with winds veering to N with a brief post
frontal surge around 15-25 kt, however high pressure quickly
builds in with winds and seas progged to drop below SCA criteria
by mid afternoon.

Thursday night and Friday...High pressure will transit the area
bringing good boating conditions with wind veering to Ely
Thursday night and then southerly Friday as the high moves off
the coast. Winds will generally be less than 15 kt with seas
around 2-4 ft.

Friday night through Monday...High pressure remains offshore
with primarily S to SW winds across the waters. A weak
shortwave will serve to tighten the gradients Friday night with
winds increasing to 15-20 kt and seas building to 3-5 ft,
otherwise winds will be around 10-15 kt and seas around 2-4 ft.
A strong Arctic front will approach the area late in the weekend
and is currently progged to push across the waters Sunday
night. SW winds increase to around 15-20 kt on Sunday and could
see minimal SCA conditions develop with gusts around 25 kt and
seas approaching 6 ft, with best chances near the Gulf Stream.
Winds become NW behind the front with the true Arctic surge
developing late Monday with winds increasing to 20-30 kt with a
potential for Gales Force winds, especially in gusts, and seas
building to 4-7 ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Thursday for AMZ131-137-
     230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST Thursday for AMZ150-152-
     154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD/SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CQD/ZC
MARINE...CQD/SK