Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

112
FXUS62 KMHX 080009
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
809 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Heat Advisory has been allowed to expire.

The forecast has trended somewhat drier overnight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A more active pattern persists into midweek, with showers
and storms expected each day, some of which could bring gusty
winds and heavy rain.

2) Another round of dangerously high heat and humidity builds
mid to late week into the weekend.

3) A very unstable atmosphere develops in tandem with the high
heat and humidity mid to late in the week, and could produce a
few strong to severe thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...As of 740pm, there was an ongoing cluster of
strong to severe thunderstorms impacting portions of Beaufort,
Hyde, and Washington Counties. The storms appear to be hitting
their peak, and should gradually weaken with time as the airmass
gradually stabilizes with increasing inhibition. Meanwhile,
there is another convective cluster near Raleigh that is
generally tracking slowly east. The downstream airmass across
our northwestern coastal plain counties is still unstable, but
with increasing inhibition, we expect that convection to
gradually weaken as it shifts east this evening. In light of
this, it appears that we will have another night with a reduced
risk of convection (like last night).

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: At first glance today had a rather similar
setup across ENC compared to yesterday as weak upper ridging
extends N towards ENC keeping the area under a hot airmass. With
that in mind, initial thought was substantial coverage of
showers and storms along and ahead of the sea breeze this
afternoon. However, this has not materialized to this point.
Current thinking is slightly drier conditions above 500mb noted
on the 12Z sounding today compared to yesterday, paired with
less instability (2-3k instead of 4-6k) might be the reason for
the lesser coverage. Still, scattered showers and tstorms are
expected ahead of the sea breeze as updrafts slowly saturate the
air above 500, eating way at the "cap" aloft. Of note, near
Alligator River and NOBX there is enough convergence to overcome
the drier air aloft, and this region is still expected to see
numerous to widespread tstorms. Weak shear keeps storms more
"pulse-like" with weak steering flow making the storms slow
moving and back building. With all this in mind, storms will be
capable of heavy rain, frequent lightning, gusty winds, and
small hail. Where heavy rain rates linger, flash flooding will
be a concern today.

Tomorrow a backdoor cold front/seabreeze combo will be the
focus for thunderstorm activity. Guidance continues to suggest
PoPs remain around the 50-80% range as the back door cold front
provides some additional forcing. Instability however should be
less as more cloudy skies get in the way. SPC has portions of
ENC under a marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe weather as well
on Wed with damaging winds (40-60 mph) being the main hazard
within the strongest storms. WPC has kept much of the area
under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall tomorrow as well.

Beyond mid week, PoPs return back to climo (20-40%) as more
typical seabreeze showers/storms return. Hts/thicknesses slowly
build in the process as ridging begins to build once again, with
heat indices 100-110 in the forecast.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Not much change in forecast thinking from Thurs
onwards as low level thicknesses remain around normal values
which places inland temps in the mid to upper 90s across ENC.
With dewpoints in the 70s there could be widespread heat indices
around 100-110 each afternoon from Thurs into Sat.
Probabilistic heat risk shows a 60% + chance for reaching major
heat risk values with the greatest risk coming on Thurs/Fri so
additional heat advisories may come into play later this week.

KEY MESSAGE 3...With the aforementioned high heat and humidity
expected Thurs into this weekend, a very unstable atmosphere
develops with the potential for ML CAPES to near 3500 J/KG each
day, and SFC based instability between 4000-5000 J/KG. As is
typical this time of year, deep layer shear will not be too
strong, but any storms that can develop with some upper level
support could produce strong downdraft/microburst winds and very
heavy rain characterized by PW`s exceeding 2". Will also be
monitoring Sunday as the next potential front makes an
appearance across ENC which could help to focus thunderstorm
activity and bring more shear to the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TSRA activity continues to primarily impact areas of ENC east
of the TAF sites, and it appears that the risk of additional
TSRA will remain low the remainder of the night. Therefore, TSRA
have been taken out of the TAFs until tomorrow afternoon.
Another round of SCT TSRA appears likely again then. In the
meantime, there may be another risk of sub-VFR stratus and/or
reduced VIS tonight, especially for areas that saw rainfall
today.

Outlook (Wednesday night through Sunday): Beyond Wed, more
typical iso to widely sct activity expected as ridging rebuilds
into ENC so a much lower threat for sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
15-25 kt SW winds this evening with 2-5 ft. Expect winds to
ease close to daybreak Wed once again. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will also be possible across our waters again on
Wednesday as a shortwave moves through bringing a threat for
locally enhanced winds and seas.

Outlook (Wednesday through Sunday): Weakening front moves into
the waters on Wed, though as is typical in July, the front
appears to wash out, with any N`rly flow behind it short lived
with return flow developing Wed evening. SW`rly winds look to
strengthen some on Thurs/Fri as a thermal trough strengthens
across the area bringing our next potential threat for SCA`s to
the waters.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RM/RCF/RJ
AVIATION...RM/RCF
MARINE...RCF/RJ