Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

776
FXUS62 KMHX 030713
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
313 AM EDT Sun May 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Increased PoPs Wednesday afternoon through Thursday

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) The post-frontal airmass will bring cooler and drier
conditions with below normal temperatures through Monday.

2) A cold front will move through on Thursday, bringing gusty
winds and increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms, some
of which could be strong to severe.

Marine: Small Craft Advisories in effect for portions of the
waters through early this afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...This morning`s temperatures will be the coldest
of the week (low 40s inland/low 50s Outer Banks) as cooler,
drier air spills in behind the front that`s now offshore. Today,
skies will be clear and highs will be well below normal (mid/upper
60s inland/mid 60s Outer Banks). Winds shift back to the
southwest tomorrow as high pressure expands across the SE. Skies
will remain clear and highs will be about 10 degrees warmer
than today (mid/upper 70s inland, low 70s Outer Banks).

KEY MESSAGE 2...The pattern becomes active again by mid-week. A
positively tilted upper-level trough will move across the
Midwest on Thursday, becoming neutral to negatively tilted over
the eastern US Thursday evening. At the surface, a cold front
will cross the Midwest on Tuesday before stalling
Wednesday/early Thursday across the Appalachians. A low will
develop along this front, but there are model differences in the
speed of the front and the strength and track of the low.
General consensus is that the front will cross ENC late Thursday
afternoon/evening.

Isolated showers could start as early as Wednesday night with
increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms through
Thursday. The latest NSSL severe probs show a 10-30% chance of
severe storms with greatest chances being near the coast. Given
the favorable FROPA timing of late afternoon/evening, ample
bulk shear (60+ kt) and sufficient instability, a few strong to
potentially severe storms will be possible. Showers and
thunderstorms ahead of the front could dampen destabilization
and decrease the severe threat, but it`s still too far out to
determine coverage.

In addition to showers and storms, Thursday will bring strong SW
winds with gusts to approximately 30 mph inland and 35-40 mph
along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low clouds continue to pull away from the area leaving just about
all of ENC under VFR conditions as of this update with clearing
skies noted along our western coastal zones pushing east. However,
this will lead to the forecast challenge for tonight which will be a
threat for fog. Off to the west where a combination of clear skies,
ample low level moisture, and calm winds has persisted the longest,
a mixed bag of patchy MVFR to LIFR visibility has been noted. With
this airmass pushing east into ENC current forecast has at least a
brief period of decoupling tonight allowing for some ground fog to
develop across the terminals. Have kept in the inherited 5SM BR
through about 6AM with tempo groups for IFR between 2-5AM across the
temrinals given some uncertainty with how widespread this ground fog
will be. Either way minimal impacts to operations is anticipated
with the approaching ground fog. As we near daybreak forecast calls
for mixing to increase thus ending any fog threat with VFR
conditions forecast across all of ENC through the rest of the period
with clear skies and NWerly winds ~10G15kt through peak heating.

Outlook: Predominantly VFR flight conditions should persist into
early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect from Oregon Inlet to
Ocracoke Inlet until 2 PM today for lingering 25+ kt northwest
gusts and 6 ft seas. Tonight, winds will return to the SW and relax
to 5-10 kt with seas subsiding to 3-4 ft. SW winds will increase
to 10-20 kt tomorrow with seas at 2-3 ft.

Outlook: 10-20 kt SW winds will continue through Wednesday.
A cold front will cross the area on Thursday, increasing winds
and seas both ahead of and behind it. There`s potential for SW Gale
force gusts ahead of the front for most of Thursday across the
coastal waters and Pamlico Sound. Additionally, strong to
potentially severe thunderstorms will be possible.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT early this morning for
     AMZ135-156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ152-
     154.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...OJC
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...OJC