Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

512
FXUS62 KMHX 160005
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
705 PM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast this cycle.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Arctic air returns to ENC and wind chills drop to 15-20
degrees early Friday morning. Conditions expected to remain just
above Cold Weather Advisory criteria.

2) Low pressure will pass off the coast Sunday bringing rain
with the potential for a change over to a rain/snow mix or snow.

3) MARINE: Gale conditions to develop across the coastal waters
south of Oregon Inlet this evening through tonight, while strong
Small Craft conditions elsewhere.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

The front has pushed well offshore early this morning and high
pressure will build into the Southeast from the west tonight and
Friday. Strong CAA will continue through this evening then will
wane late tonight as the upper trough axis slides offshore and
high pressure begins to ridge into the area allowing winds to
diminish. Very cold temps expected tonight with lows dropping to
the upper teens to lower 20s late tonight. Wind chill values
will drop into the mid to upper teens after midnight but model
guidance keeps values just above Cold Weather Advisory criteria
(less than 15 degrees) as winds will become light/calm late
tonight, and will forego issuing an advisory at this time.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A potentially favorable upper air pattern for winter weather
will develop this weekend with a very deep and cold upper level
trough reaching down to the GOA. As this trough pivots eastward
Saturday into Sunday, a surface low is expected to form along a
surface boundary off the SE coast, and deepen as it moves
offshore Sunday. Models continue to show a wide range with the
sfc low track along/off the NC coast which will ultimately
determine the extent of snowfall across the region, which has
not lead to increasing confidence with this system. If the low
forms too close to the coast not enough cold air will be in
place for any wintry precip except for across the northern
coastal plain, while a solution farther offshore would allow for
sufficient cold air to change rain to snow across much of ENC.

Current thinking is that precip will begin as rain early Sunday,
then potentially chance over to a rain/snow mix or all snow for
a time as the low pulls away from the area and low level NW
flow increases allowing the column to cool sufficiently.
Guidance still showing wide range of liquid precip amounts from
as little as 0.1"-0.2", to nearly an inch in the wettest model.
As for accumulating snowfall, a majority of the models keep the
region free of accumulating snow, while a few solutions show up
to 1-2" inland from the coast. Despite the very cold temps
tonight, we do get a descent warm up on Saturday with temps
climbing into the low to mid 60s, which will help limit any snow
accumulation with warmer ground temps. We will continue to
closely monitor the trends for this system.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 705 PM Thu...No sub-VFR restrictions expected through the
TAF period. NW winds subside tonight as high pressure expands
over terminals from the south and west, with a period of calm
winds likely after 07-08z. High moves offshore tomorrow and
winds back southwesterly with some gusts to 15-20 kt. Other than
some spotty cirri, skies remain clear.

Outlook: High pressure moves offshore on Sat with inc cloud
cover and cont swrly breezes. A weak low pres system and cold
front couple to produce rain possibly changing to a ra/sn mix
later Sun before ending Sun evening. Sub VFR with this system,
but quite a bit of uncertainty on whether any snow accums at
this time. Dry high pres returns Mon/Tues with a return to VFR
mostly SKC.

&&

.MARINE...
The front has pushed well offshore this afternoon and currently
seeing NW winds around 15-20 kt with gusts around 20-25 kt and
seas around 3-6 ft. Winds will increase late this afternoon and
evening as an upper trough pushes across the region with strong
SCA across most waters and frequent gusts to gales across
coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet, especially across the
outer waters near the Gulf Stream. Winds will peak around
midnight, then diminish rather quickly late tonight and Friday
morning as high pressure ridges in from the west. Seas will peak
around 4-7 ft late tonight then diminish to below 6 ft early
Friday morning. Conditions are expected to drop below SCA
criteria by mid morning Friday.

Outlook: After a brief improvement Friday, Small Craft
conditions will likely redevelop Saturday ahead of a cold front,
and then again late Sunday behind the front. CAA behind a dry
cold front may bring SCA conditions Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for AMZ131-135-150-
     230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Friday for AMZ136-137.
     Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Friday for AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SK
AVIATION...TL/MS
MARINE...SK