Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

229
FXUS62 KMHX 311835
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
235 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant forecast or messaging changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) High pressure builds in through mid to late week bringing
anomalous heat and humidity across the area

2) Strong cold front to bring relief from the heat this weekend
into early next week, along with a risk of strong thunderstorms

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A notable upper level ridge, currently centered
over the Midwest, will shift east this week with anomalous
heights overspreading the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. Beneath
the ridge, an expansive area of anomalously warm low-level
thicknesses are forecast to reside across the Southeast U.S.,
with 850mb temperatures reaching around 20C. Meanwhile,
southerly flow will help hold dewpoints in the 70s most days,
especially Wednesday through Friday. The combination of highs in
the 90s and dewpoints in the 70s will make it feel like 100 to
110 degrees during that time. Forecast aids like the ECMWF`s EFI
show an impressive signal for anomalous heat mid to late-week,
adding confidence to the impact. Lastly, the NWS` experimental
Heat Risk puts most of ENC in the "Major" impact category.
Bottom line, it will be dangerously hot and humid for much of
the upcoming week, with impacts expected to peak Wednesday-
Friday.

Assuming the forecast holds, heat headlines will likely be
needed for portions of the area. To give some context to the
anomaly of this incoming heat wave, heat headlines a fairly rare
this late in the season. Since 2005, heat headlines have been
issued in September only once (2020). If dewpoints mix out some,
then heat indices may not get as high, despite the anomalous
temps. Based on the latest guidance, though, headlines appear
likely.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong cold front is forecast to move through
the Carolinas Friday night or Saturday. At minimum, this will
knock down the heat, bringing a refreshing break from the
anomalous heat and humidity. Additionally, guidance show a
decent signal for convection with the front. Synoptically, the
setup appears favorable for strong to severe thunderstorms
depending on the timing of the passage of the front. Machine
learning guidance shows a decent signal for this potential as
well. From a probabilistic standpoint, the risk appears to be
the highest on Saturday.

Behind the front, highs are forecast to drop back down into the
80s, with lows in the 60s. Adding to this will be dewpoints
falling back into the 50s and 60s making it feel more
comfortable.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecast confidence is moderate to high over the next 24 hours.

The seabreeze is expected to be more muted today, with a much
lower risk of TSRA compared to yesterday. For this reason, I
kept TSRA out of all TAF sites for the remainder of the
afternoon. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this
evening. Then, later tonight into early Tuesday morning,
guidance shows a moderate signal for sub- VFR VIS due to
BR/MIFG. In light of this, I added MVFR conditions for KOAJ and
KEWN where confidence in highest. All TAF sites may see reduced
VIS, but the signal in guidance isn`t quite as strong inland as
it is closer to the coast. Dry conditions and a continued
reduction in TSRA is expected on Tuesday.

NOTE: AMD NOT SKED has been appended to the EWN TAFs as the
site is not transmitting through normal channels. The site is
still reporting via telephone so it will be monitored, but not
as frequently as when it is completely operational. The next
closest ASOS is at Cherry Point (KNKT).

Outlook: Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the end of
the week along with a reduced risk of TSRA. Occasional sub-VFR
conditions may occur during the early morning hours in BR/MIFG
each day.

&&

.MARINE...
Good boating conditions are ongoing at this time with winds
around 5- 10kt and seas of 1-2ft. These conditions are expected
to continue through Tuesday morning. By Tuesday afternoon, a
strengthening thermal gradient should lead to southwesterly
winds building to 10- 15kt, with seas building to 2-3ft.

The risk of thunderstorms looks very low (<10% chance) through
Tuesday afternoon for most waters. The one exception is the far
outer central and southern waters along the Gulf Stream, where
scattered thunderstorms will continue to be a risk.

Outlook: Generally good boating conditions are expected through
Friday. It will be breezy each afternoon and evening with the
diurnal max of the thermal gradient, and some waters may come
close to 25kt at times, especially Thursday and Friday. Over the
weekend, a strong cold front is forecast to move through with a
chance of thunderstorms and winds flipping around to
northeasterly.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures for 09/02 (Wednesday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern         96/2014  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    91/2018  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      101/1932  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    91/1998  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston          98/1993  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     95/1998  (NCA ASOS)

Record High Temperatures for 09/03 (Thursday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern         95/2020  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    91/2018  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      101/1921  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    93/1959  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston          98/1980  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     96/2020  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RM
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...RM