Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

362
FXUS62 KMHX 041815
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
115 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Inc pops again for rest of today with widely sct waa showers
blossoming.

Relegated highest thunder chances for coastal plain counties
Friday with potential severe.

Raised max temps on the OBX through Friday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warm with increasing moisture and isolated showers through
Thursday.

2) Widespread showers and a few severe thunderstorms possible
ahead of a cold front.

3) Cooler, drier, and more seasonable behind the fropa for this
weekend.

Aviation: Another risk of LIFR tonight into early Thu morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Little change to the forecast reasoning and
synoptic setups through Thu. Where guidance is fairly well
clustered is with an amplified upper trough that will be
shifting east out of the Central U.S. A progressive and open
wave will sweep through the Eastern U.S at the end of the week.
Before that happens, low level flow is currently veering
southeast to south today as weak warm front/coastal trough
lifts through, which is producing some widely sct showers.
Any showers dissipate by evening, then a fog and low stratus
threat later this evening to Thu morning as moistening boundary
layer continues. Area is firmly entrenched in srly flow Thu,
but with no forcing in place, pops are generally less than 20%,
though can`t rule out a quick light shower anywhere. Very warm
through Thursday with highs around 80 interior to 70s beaches.
Overnight lows will be especially above climo, with readings in
the 60s the next few nights, and where we should be for
afternoon highs.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Friday - Still looks like widespread showers
and a few thunderstorms breaking out during the afternoon into
evening with a wet cold front moving through. Anomalous
moisture and higher- than- normal instability for early
November is expected, as indicated by EFI highlighting CAPE
vals nearing the 80th percentile. Have increased the thunder
threat for inland areas where the EFI is highlighting the higher
CAPE/Shear indices inland, and where highest instability and
shear will reside. If best forcing lines up with peak heating,
a strong to severe thunderstorm threat would materialize for
areas esp west of Hwy 17 Fri afternoon. Main threat would be
damaging winds.

Front sweeps offshore late Fri evening with any remaining
showers exiting the OBX before daybreak Sat.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Good agreement amongst models with fropa late
Fri, which will usher in a more seasonably dry airmass for the
coming weekend. Return to mo sunny skies and highs in the upper
60s to low 70s Sat, then cooler yet for Sun with 60-65. Lows
will be in the 40s, with some 30s for some of the normally
colder spots.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions with widely sct showers for today. Then overall
pattern looks very similar tonight, and the expectation is that
another round of fog and very low stratus (LIFR) will develop
tonight into early Thu. Dry conditions for Thu with the low
clouds lifting to MVFR and then eventually VFR as strong mixing
occurs with a slight uptick in srly breezes.

Outlook (Thursday night through Monday): On Friday, a cold
front is forecast to move through with an increased risk of
widespread SHRA with a few TSRA embedded. Some of the strongest
TSRA may be accompanied by a risk of strong winds of 40kt+. Very
heavy rain and IFR/LIFR VIS will be possible as well. The
northwest wind shift along the front is expected to occur Friday
night. A drier northwesterly flow behind the front should then
support mainly VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Light to moderate winds will continue through the period
(strongest across the outer southern and central waters). Seas
2-4 ft will grad build through tonight with developing SE winds
and increasing swell from low pressure well offshore. Seas will
build to 3-5 ft nearshore and 4-6 ft offshore. Sct light
showers will be possible through Thursday.

Outlook (Fri through Mon): Srly winds will cont in the 5-15 kt
range, though a better chance for some advected 6+ ft seas as
weak low pres develops well offshore on Friday into the weekend.
Cold front passes through late Friday, with winds turning nwrly
behind the fropa but should cont remaining below 25 knots,
though high seas around 6 ft or greater may cont.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CQD/TL
AVIATION...TL
MARINE...CQD/TL