Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

073
FXUS62 KMHX 102244
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
644 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Climate section added with potential for record temps next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Above normal temperatures will prevail through the next week
with the potential for record breaking temperatures next Tuesday
through Friday.

2) Worsening drought and fire weather conditions anticipated
over the next 7 days with no rainfall forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Temps will be 5-10 degrees above normal
Saturday ahead of a backdoor front that will push through mid to
late afternoon. Highs expected in the low to mid 80s inland
with 70s near the coast and upper 60s OBX. Temps will be around
5 degrees cooler Sunday with sfc high pressure to the north
bringing easterly flow across the region, but still above normal
away from the coast.

The high migrates off the Mid-Atlantic coast late Sunday and
persists through the week while upper ridging builds over the
Southeast bringing a significant warm up and a prolonged period
of near record breaking temperatures. Temperatures inland are
forecast in the upper 80s Tuesday and peak in the lower 90s
Wednesday, Thursday, and possibly into Friday. Current
deterministic NBM high temperature forecast is in good
agreement with low level thickness tools, however it is around
the 25th percentile of the blend of models, so there is
potential for even warmer temperatures than currently forecast.
Some uncertainty with the forecast Friday as some guidance push
a dry backdoor front through the area which would result in
lower temperatures, but other guidance keeps southwest flow and
very warm temperatures. Deterministic NBM temperatures are
around the 10th percentile for Friday. Record highs next week
are in the low to mid 90s inland and around 80 along the coast,
so some records may certainly be challenged, especially inland.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Worsening drought conditions are likely through
the foreseeable future with no rain in the forecast through next
week. The forecast area remains in a Severe Drought (D2), with
some pockets of Extreme Drought (D3) emerging over the northern
NC coastal plain. Precipitation deficits over the last 60 days
range from 3-6 inches, which will only increase in the upcoming
rain-free week. Growing vegetation and leaf out will only
increase the strain on ground water in the coming weeks. While
the forecast currently has conditions not meeting criteria for
fire danger statements, the very dry conditions will continue to
bring an elevated threat for wildfires. The NCFS continues a
statewide burn ban until further notice.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Pred VFR conditions expected through the period. The only exception
may be the northern Outer Banks overnight, with potential for patchy
sea fog and low stratus. Overnight, winds may briefly become
calm before a southerly breeze develops. There may be a brief
window where radiational fog could develop, but with no guidance
support, the potential looks to be very isolated. A backdoor
front will push through the terminals late Sat morning and early
afternoon, with winds becoming northerly.

Outlook: Pred VFR conditions expected through the period with a
more summertime pattern taking shape Sunday into early next
week.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs show NE-SE winds 5-10 kt with seas 4-7 ft. Long
period easterly swell will keep elevated seas through much of
the weekend and continue the SCA through tonight across the
southern waters and into midday Sunday across the central and
northern waters. Earlier sea fog along the northern waters has
dissipated, but may re-develop overnight, will continue to
monitor. Westerly winds will be around 10-15 kt Saturday
morning, then a backdoor front will push through the area Sunday
with winds shifting to N to NE around 10-20 kt and could see a
brief period of gusts to around 25 kt just behind the front.
Winds become Ely around 15 kt or less Saturday night into
Sunday, then veer to SE Sunday afternoon.

Outlook: Largely benign boating conditions expected next week,
although with a spring heatwave on the horizon strengthening
thermal gradient winds could near 25 kt at times during the
overnight hours and nudge seas near 6 feet.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for 4/14 (Tuesday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        89/1948   (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   80/1994   (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      93/1922   (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   80/1996   (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         99/1930   (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    88/1977   (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 4/15 (Wednesday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        94/1972   (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   84/1922   (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      96/1922   (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   80/1964   (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         92/1941   (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    93/2006   (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 4/16 (Thursday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        92/1972   (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   78/1994   (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      92/1972   (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   82/2006   (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         92/2006   (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    91/1972   (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196-
     203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SK
AVIATION...CQD
MARINE...SK