Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

656
FXUS62 KMHX 111152
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
652 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will pass through the area early this morning,
bringing chances of rain to ENC today. Much cooler conditions
return for early this coming week following the front. A low
pressure system will then move through the Mid-Atlantic region
mid to late this coming week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 215 AM Sunday...

Key Messages...

 - Showers expected to push NW to SE through early afternoon as
   a cold front pushes across ENC

 - Early morning highs (60s) with temps falling through the day
   (50s) behind the front thanks to strong cold air advection

Breezy southwesterly winds have kept WAA in place overnight
tonight, with temperatures remaining in the mid-60s across ENC.
A cold front currently analyzed passing through the
Greensboro/Winston-Salem area will continue to push eastward
across ENC, eventually entering the northwestern portion of the
forecast area a couple of hours prior to dawn. Forcing for
ascent from the approaching front coupled with jet streak
dynamics aloft is expected to yield an increase in coverage of
rain showers as the front approaches ENC this morning. This
shower activity will gradually push eastward along with the
front, eventually clearing offshore by mid to late afternoon
today. Rainfall on the order of a couple tenths of an inch is
expected, with locally higher amounts up to half an inch
possible, especially across the northern portions of the
forecast area. Cannot rule out a rumble of thunder along
portions of the Outer Banks or Gulf Stream where meager
instability will be present, but limited CAPE values (generally
less than 100 J/kg) will prevent more widespread thunderstorm
activity. Sharp veering of winds to northwesterly behind the
cold front will bring CAA, with temperatures falling from
morning highs in the the 60s into the low-to-mid 50s by the
afternoon/evening. Winds will remain breezy behind the front,
with gusts up to 35 mph possible behind the front this afternoon
(gusts 35-45 mph possible along the OBX later this evening).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
As of 230 AM Sunday...

Key Messages...

- Cold air advection behind today`s frontal passage will bring
  low temperatures in the upper-20s tonight

Skies will clear late this afternoon and into the evening as the
front and associated precipitation slide offshore. Winds will
gradually slacken through the overnight hours tonight as high
pressure begins to build into the area, but CAA through today
and into the overnight will bring falling temperatures, with
lows expected in the upper-20s (low-30s Outer Banks).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 AM Sunday...

Key Messages

- Return to cooler temperatures early this coming week with dry
  conditions

- Low pressure system mid to late this coming week will bring
  the next chance of rain, with some potential (10-30%) for a
  wintry mix or light snow as it moves offshore

Early this coming week...High pressure builds back into the
area behind today`s cold frontal passage, bringing the return of
cooler temperatures and drier conditions. Highs around 50 for
Monday rise to the upper-50s Tuesday/Wednesday. Overnight lows
will be in the upper-20s Monday night. Southwesterly winds will
increase ahead of the next frontal system Tuesday night, which
will bring more moderate lows in the upper-30s.

Mid-to-late this coming week...The next front is forecast to
push offshore, with the potential for multiple weak lows/waves
of low pressure to travel along this front mid-week, which may
bring the next chances of rain to ENC. There is a building
signal that a stronger low pressure system will then move across
the region Thursday or Friday bringing additional chances for
precipitation. Guidance continues to struggle with the
strength, timing, and location of the system, but there is
potential (10-30%) for a changeover to a wintry mix or snow as
the system pulls away from the coast, but it is still too early
for any discussion on impacts or accumulation potential.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 7 AM Sunday...

Key Messages

 - Brief period of low stratus (MVFR) and light rain this
   morning

 - Gusty SW winds early this morning become very gusty NW winds
   late morning onwards

Primarily VFR ceilings and visibility are noted across much of
ENC. Cold front with scattered light showers is at our doorstep,
will sweep E`wards and track across the area through the morning
hours today. This is forecast to bring a brief period of MVFR
ceilings 1.5-3 kft starting from W-E. MVFR ceilings should
quickly progress E`wards and eventually push offshore by late
morning as the front pushes offshore. Once the area goes VFR
conditions will remain VFR through the rest of the period Sun
into Sunday night. SW wind gusts 15-25 kt ahead of the front
this morning, becoming NW gusting 20-30 kt behind the front
through the remainder of today. This could lead to crosswind
issues on ISO and EWN runways with the NW flow. Winds will
decrease to 5-10 knots Sunday night with the loss of daytime
mixing.

Outlook: Pred VFR conditions expected through much of the
period with high pressure in control. While there is still a lot
of uncertainty, a low pressure system Thursday could bring
precip, lower ceilings, and gusty winds with it.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 3 AM Sunday...

Key Messages...

- Gale Force winds expected over the coastal waters south of
  Oregon Inlet through this morning as SW winds increase ahead
  of a cold front

- A second round of Gale conditions will develop Sunday
  afternoon as NW winds surge behind a secondary cold front.
  These Gales will be more widespread, covering all the coastal
  waters and the Pamlico Sound at least

Southwesterly winds have continued to pick up as the gradient
tightens ahead of an approaching cold front, with gusts noted up
to around 35 kts at Diamond Shoals and over the Gulf Stream
waters. Gale Force gusts are expected to continue over the
coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet through this morning. The
cold front will then cross through ENC this morning, passing
offshore around noon today. Winds will quickly veer to
northwesterly behind the front. High-res guidance shows a brief
dip in wind speeds and gusts to sub-SCA across the sounds/rivers
and to sub-Gale across the coastal waters early this afternoon,
but a northwesterly surge behind a secondary cold front will
bring a rapid increase in winds/gusts beginning mid-afternoon
today. These winds will be the strongest of the day, with gusts
to 40-45 kts expected across the coastal waters and gusts to
Gale Force expected across the Pamlico Sound. Currently have
SCA`s in effect for the remaining sounds and rivers, but some
guidance depicts moderate chances (40-50%) for a brief period of
Gales across the Ablemarle, Croatan, and Roanoke Sounds this
evening. Will continue to monitor this potential for an
expansion to the Gale Warnings.

In additional to elevated winds, showers and an isolated
thunderstorm will accompany the frontal passage this morning
through the early afternoon. Drier conditions then return later
today, with winds gradually decreasing through Sunday night as
high pressure builds into the region.

Current obs show seas 5-8 ft south of Oregon Inlet and 3-5 ft to
the north. With the wind direction switching to offshore flow
today, seas across the coastal waters will remain 5-8 ft
through tonight, becoming 3-5 ft Monday.

Outlook: Marine conditions improve early week as high pressure
builds over the region, with sub-SCA conditions expected to
return Monday and last until mid week when another low pressure
system will bring increased winds and seas.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Monday for AMZ131-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ135-
     150.
     Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Monday for
     AMZ135-150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST
     Monday for AMZ136-137.
     Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...ZC
SHORT TERM...ZC
LONG TERM...ZC
AVIATION...RJ
MARINE...ZC