Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

310
FXUS62 KMHX 240645
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
145 AM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No changes to headlines this morning. Probability of rain
Thursday evening into Friday continues to slowly increase.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry and cool with increasing clouds expected today into
tonight.

2) Front approaches the region late Thursday into Friday with
rain likely, although rainfall amounts remain uncertain.

Marine...SCAs continue for the Pamlico sound and coastal waters
into today with breezy NW winds and elevated seas. Gusty SW
winds develop mid week ahead of approaching front with a low
risk of Gales over the Gulf Stream.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Upper trough responsible for yesterday`s
powerful and historic Nor`easter is now pushing off the coast
this morning, leaving the Carolinas in increasing northwesterly
mid-level flow, which will gradually become more zonal into
tomorrow as weaker but quick-moving shortwave transits the Great
Lakes. At the surface, cooler high pressure centered over the
lower MS River Valley is attempting to build eastward but a
respectable pressure gradient remains, keeping winds elevated
this hour.

Dry, cool, and low-impact weather expected today with mainly
clear skies as aforementioned high shifts to our south. NW winds
will gradually subside with temps rising into the 40s (coolest
northern OBX), then back southwesterly and increase overnight as
low pressure driven by Great Lakes shortwave races towards the
northeast CONUS.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The next rainmaker for our area arrives late
Thursday into Friday as cold front approaches from the west,
driven by a shortwave diving out of the northern Rockies.
Precipitation will be all liquid with temps well into the 60s,
with some limited thunder potential confined to near the Gulf
Stream. There is still a healthy amount of spread on forecast
rain amounts with the Euro ensemble sitting on the wetter side
of the envelope and the Canadian ensembles making up the dry
side. The forecast trend overall has been shifting towards
modestly higher amounts, with the odds of at least a quarter
inch now up to 70-80% and half an inch at around 50%. Still
think these might be a bit generous given the consistent under-
performance of precipitation as of late with ongoing drought
conditions, but at least measurable rainfall is likely and
maintained categorical PoPs.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will slide south through the Gulf Coast States
through Tuesday, then shift east into the Gulf and Southwestern
Atlantic Tuesday night. Locally, this will allow northwesterly
winds to become southwesterly by Tuesday evening. A very dry
airmass in place throughout the column is expected to support
VFR conditions over the next 24 hr.

Outlook: Gusty southerly winds are expected Wednesday and
Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. LLWS impacts will
be possible during this time as well. The cold front will bring
an increased risk of SHRA and sub-VFR conditions Wednesday night
through Friday. Additionally, a northerly wind shift can be
expected along the front as it moves through on Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions will continue to gradually improve across the waters
this morning. Latest obs still show NW winds 10-20 kt gusting
25-30 kt, but seas have dropped slightly to 6-8 ft north of
Ocracoke and 3-6 ft south. No changes were made to previous
headlines, with SCAs for Pamlico Sound and southern waters
slated to drop off around sunrise as winds continue to weaken.
Northwesterly winds will continue to subside today, gradually
backing southwesterly and then increasing overnight as quick-
moving low pressure races across the Great Lakes.

Outlook: Offshore waters likely to remain poor through late
week as southwesterly winds increase ahead of an approaching
cold front forecast to cross late this week into the weekend.
SCA conditions likely to be back across waters south of Oregon
Inlet and Pamlico Sound by daytime Wednesday. There is a low
risk of Gales (around 10-20%) over the Gulf Stream waters Wed
afternoon, but this is too low to warrant any Watch headlines
this package. Poor boating conditions likely to persist for
offshore waters into Friday before the front crosses the region.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for
     NCZ203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ150-
     152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MS
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...MS