Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

381
FXUS62 KMHX 190627
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
127 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Model guidance continues to trend colder and wetter for this
coming weekend, increasing the potential for snow and/or ice
impacts.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 130 AM Mon...

1) Areas of black ice this morning.

2) Another Arctic blast expected early through mid week with
lows and wind chills in the 15 to 20 range each morning through
Wednesday. Wednesday morning will be the coldest day with lows
in the teens for all areas away from the beaches with high
pressure overhead.

3) Though there is still alot of uncertainty, the threat for
winter weather impacts is increasing for this weekend. Snow
and/or ice accumulations will be possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 130 AM Mon...

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Any moisture or puddles remaining on roads will freeze this
morning, leading to patchy black ice through mid morning for
most of the area. Lows of 25 to 30 deg expected. SPS continues
through mid morning highlighting the threat.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Another Arctic blast is expected behind the reinforcing front,
leading to well below normal temps through Wednesday. Low temps
will reach the low to mid 20s tonight, and when factoring in
wind chills it will feel like 15 to 20 each morning. We will be
close to Cold Weather Advisory criteria both Tuesday morning
(wind chills), and Wednesday morning (air temps). Wed morning is
the coldest with high pressure directly overhead with lows in
the teens for all areas away from the immediate coast.

Key MESSAGE 3...

Deep troughing over the Eastern US is expected through the rest
of the week into the weekend, keeping below normal temps in
place. A southern stream system brings the next chance for
precipitation to ENC. Still alot of uncertainty this weekend,
in the synoptic and mesoscale details. However, most 00z model
guidance continues to trend colder and wetter. There is potential
for this system to bring snow and/or ice impacts to the area.
Will continue to keep p-types rain and/or snow in the forecast,
though still potential for freezing rain and/or sleet,
depending on the warm nose aloft. Stay tuned to the forecast
over the next several days with the increasing threat for wintry
wx.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions have returned for most of ENC early this morning,
with the exception of the immediate coast where MVFR ceilings
remain. As drier and colder air continues to move in behind the
departing storm system, VFR conditions should return within the
next couple of hours to the coast, and continue elsewhere.

Across extreme southern NC low level moisture pooling behind
this system has produced some areas of fog, and forecast
guidance shows this slowly drifting eastward through the rest of
the overnight hours, which could clip portions of Duplin and
Onslow counties right around sunrise. Have some MVFR 3-5 mile
visibilities for these areas right now, but there is a low
probability that more dense fog could reach these areas, and
with temps below freezing, freezing fog (while unlikely) can`t
be ruled out.

Mostly sunny skies on tap today with light winds less than 10
kts, keeping conditions VFR present through tonight.

Outlook: Pred VFR conditions are expected across ENC through mid
week as high pressure builds in.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 130 AM Mon...Latest obs show NW winds 10-20 kt with seas
3-6 ft, highest across the outer central waters. SCA remains in
effect for the coastal waters from Oregon Inlet to Surf City for
the next few hours.

Conditions will temporarily improve this morning with winds W
5-15 kt, and seas 2-4 ft, but winds will again increase tonight
to WNW 15-20 kt behind a reinforcing cold front. Marginal SCA
conditions may re-develop across the warmer Gulf Stream waters,
with occasional gusts to 25 kt.

Tuesday through Friday: Lighter winds expected Tuesday through
much of the rest of the week with speeds generally 5-15 kt with
mainly high pressure in control. The next system will impact the
area this weekend and could bring SCA conditions.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for
     AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CQD
AVIATION...SGK
MARINE...CQD