Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

199
FXUS62 KMHX 181930
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
230 PM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Rain with brief mix with snow acrs the far nw, but snow amts
remain at 0 as air temps will remain well above freezing.
Bigger concern remains threat for black ice later tonight
through the Monday AM commute time with lingering moisture on
roads and temps in the 20s.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 230 PM Sun...

1) Rain today with a brief mix with some wet non accumulating
snowflakes late today to early evening before precip ends. Temps
remain well above freezing through early evening so no travel
impacts through around midnight.

2) Any remaining wet roads or bridges will freeze tonight into the
Monday morning commute, as temperatures fall through the 20s late
tonight.

3) Another Arctic blast expected early through mid next week with
lows and wind chills in the 15 to 20 range Monday through
Wednesday mornings. Wednesday morning coldest day of the week
with lows in the teens all areas away from the beaches with high
pressure overhead.

4) Next system to watch could bring wintry weather by next
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 230 PM Sun...

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Rainy miserable day continues with widespread but much needed
rain! Early evening could see a few flakes mix in esp north of
Hwy 264 and west of Hwy 17 but even by this evening temps well
above freezing so no travel impacts. Latest air and ground temps
are in the mid 40s, so despite a mix to some snow, road temps
will be well above freezing.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Rain amounts of a half to 3/4 of an inch are possible before
ending. Any moisture or puddles remaining on roads will freeze
after midnight, leading to patchy black ice late tonight through
the Monday AM commute with lows 25 to 30 expected.

Key MESSAGE 3...

Another Arctic blast is expected behind the front, leading to well
below normal temps Monday through Wednesday. Low temps will reach
the low to mid 20s tonight and Monday night, and when factoring
in wind chills it will feel like 15 to 20 each morning. We will
be close to Cold Weather Advisory criteria both Tuesday morning
(wind chills), and Wednesday morning (air temps). Wed morning
is the coldest with high pressure directly overhead with lows in
the teens for all areas away from the immediate coast.

KEY MESSAGE 4...

Deep troughing over the Eastern US is expected through the rest
of the week into the weekend, keeping below normal temps in
place. A southern stream system brings the next chance for
precipitation across ENC. If cold air remains deep enough,
wintry weather could be a threat, as latest 18/12Z ECM plume
p-type meteograms indicate an equal threat of rain, freezing
rain, and snow to ENC. Stay tuned as the system is a long way
off and great uncertainty remains with synoptic details and
especially mesoscale details.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Current flight cats across ENC range from MVFR to LIFR with ongoing
widespread light to moderate rain. Temps are sitting in the mid 40s
but will continue to drop, which will open the door for some
snowflakes to mix in this afternoon and evening, especially across
the inner and northern coastal plain. Therefore, a mention of RASN
continues to be included in the PGV and ISO TAFs from 22-00Z. Precip
will move offshore this evening, improving VIS and CIGs to VFR by
tonight. Freezing fog is a potential concern for the inner coastal
plain (PGV and ISO) early tomorrow morning, but confidence is low
given a split in model guidance. With confidence in fog development
low at this time, fog was not mentioned in this TAF cycle but trends
will be closely monitored. Also of concern tonight and tomorrow
morning will be patchy black ice, especially on elevated surfaces.
Dry Arctic air will build in tomorrow with SKC and 5-10 kt SW winds.

Outlook: Pred VFR conditions are expected across ENC through mid
week as high pressure builds in.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 PM Sun...

SCA remains in effect for Pamlico Sound and the coastal waters
as a surge of CAA nrly winds develop late this afternoon through
this evening. Winds drop below 25 kt after around midnight.

Conditions will temporarily improve tomorrow morning with winds
W 5- 15 kts, and seas 2-4 ft, but winds will again increase
Monday night to WNW 15-20 kts with marginal Small Craft
conditions possibly redeveloping across the warmer Gulf waters.

Tuesday through Thursday: Lighter winds expected Tuesday through
much of the rest of the week with speeds generally 5-15 kt as
high pres remains in the vicinity. Next weather maker may bring
SCA conditions by next weekend.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for AMZ135-150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for AMZ152-154-156-
     158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TL
AVIATION...OJC
MARINE...TL