Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

040
FXUS62 KMHX 200823
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
423 AM EDT Tue Oct 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Allowed the Coastal Flood Advisory to expire for Tyrrell,
Pamlico and Southern Craven Counties.

Extended the Wind Advisory to Midnight tonight for the Outer
Banks.

Cancelled the Small Craft Advisory for the Pamlico/Pungo Rivers.

Converted the Gale Warning to a Small Craft Advisory for the
Albemarle Sound, Alligator River and waters south of Cape
Lookout out to 20 nm.

Made minor adjustments to the Gale Warning end times for the
remaining coastal zones.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A slow moving nor`easter continues to take shape well off
the coast, bringing a long duration wind and swell event with
high impacts for parts of Outer Banks and adjacent waters well
into the work week.

2) Cooler than avg conditions continue through the week.

Marine: Gale Warnings continue in effect. Prolonged period of
strong winds and high seas as nor`easter lingers offshore
through at least mid week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Vertically stacked low pressure will meander off
the NC and Mid-Atlantic coast through mid week bringing
prolonged strong north to northeasterly winds across ENC. The
sfc low was approx 200 mi east of Cape Hatteras last evening but
has since drifted eastward to around 260 mi from Cape Hatteras
early this morning allowing winds to diminish some across the
region. However, guidance continues to wobble the low off the
coast while deepening as it slowly lifts northward off the Mid-
Atlantic coast as the system remains cut-off from the mean flow
aloft. Winds are expected to increase again this afternoon and
evening, with another surge potentially on Wednesday, so am
reluctant to make many wholesale changes to the current
headlines at this time. It is not until Thursday that the low
will begin to accelerate away from the East Coast as a northern
stream shortwave digs into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

Tight pressure gradients between the offshore low and high
pressure across the Eastern CONUS will bring strong north to
northeast winds across the region with the strongest winds
across the Outer Banks where gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible. A Wind Advisory remains in effect from Duck to
Ocracoke through this evening.

The strong winds continue to bring large surf along the coast
as well as coastal flooding impacts along vulnerable locations
of the coast, especially along Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands
where dune structure is fragile. The National Parks Service and
NCDOT have recently reported substantial beach erosion from
south Nags Head to Buxton, along with significant overwash
occurring on side streets in Rodanthe. Due to hazardous road
conditions and flooding, NC-12 remains closed from the Marc
Basnight Bridge to Rodanthe, and ferry service remains
suspended.

Each subsequent high tide cycle will continue to threaten the
dunes, further, and the threat of additional impacts to Hwy 12
remain. Minor soundside flooding is also a concern along
southern portions of the Pamlico Sound, including Frisco,
Ocracoke, areas of Downeast Carteret Co. A Coastal Flood
Warning remains in effect for Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands and
a Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for the Northern
Outer Banks and East Carteret County. Additionally, a high surf
advisory continues for Cape Lookout and points north through
the OBX.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Pleasantly cooler air mass that has advected in
will remain with us through at least mid week with temps a bit
below climo. Maximum temperatures through the period are
expected to remain in the 60-70 degree range. Overnight lows
will range from the 40s inland to the 50s coast.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure will continue to slowly lift nwd off the Mid-
Atlantic coast bringing breezy northerly winds through the TAF
period. Inland terminals have decoupled sufficiently with winds
diminishing below 10 kt with early this morning bringing a risk
of LLWS impacts with a strong LLJ in place. Wind shear threat
will end by mid morning as deeper mixing ensues with gusts to
around 20 kt inland. Coast terminals will see the strongest
winds with gusts around 25-35 kt today, strongest along the
Outer Banks.

Otherwise, pred VFR conditions are expected to prevail with
mainly clear skies across most rtes, though the Outer Banks may
see periods of STCU that may occasionally drop to MVFR.

Outlook (Wednesday through Saturday): VFR and breezy conditions
are expected to continue through much the week as the offshore
low remains well east of the coast and high pressure to the
north. Inland winds would be highest during the daytime with
better mixing and gusts up to around 20 kt each day.

&&

.MARINE...
Very dangerous marine conditions will continue through the week
as low pressure deepens well off the NC coast but continue to
supply a steady fetch of strong n-nerly winds into ENC with
large east- northeasterly swells.

The low has drifted a bit eastward early this morning allowing
winds to diminish some and latest obs show N-NE winds around
15-25 kt with gusts 25-35 kt. Seas continue 10-15 ft closest to
shore and 12-20 ft likely offshore. While winds have dropped
below Gales for much of the waters, guidance increases winds
again this afternoon and evening and potentially again on
Wednesday as the low will continue to deepen as it wobbles off
the coast while slowly drifting northward over the next couple
of days, so will maintain the Gale Warning for most of the
coastal waters as well as the Pamlico, Croatan and Roanoke
Sounds at this time. Will not see much improvement in the seas
through mid week.

Outlook (Thursday through Saturday):
Winds will diminish sufficiently Thursday that the sounds and
rivers are expected to briefly drop below SCA criteria, however
very large seas as high as 10-15 ft will continue over the
coastal waters. Winds and seas increasing again Friday into the
weekend as strong high pressure builds in from the north.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ195-196-199-203>205.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ196-204.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NCZ203.
     High Surf Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for NCZ203-205.
     Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ203>205.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NCZ204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ131-230.
     Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ135-186.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ137.
     Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ150-152-154.
     Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ156.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ158.
     Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ180-182-184.
     Gale Warning until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ188.
     Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ231.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RM/CQD/SK
AVIATION...RM/SK
MARINE...RM/CQD/SK