Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

471
FXUS62 KMHX 021927
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
227 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong low pressure system will exit off the Carolina coast
today. High pressure then rebuilds into the area from the north
through midweek before another low pressure system impacts the
region late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 205 PM Tuesday...

Key Messages...

 - Rain threat rapidly diminishing through this afternoon

After a healthy dousing of rain (up to 2" reported so far for
OBX and Crystal Coast), compact but quick moving area of low
pressure is rapidly lifting towards the Delmarva Peninsula and
taking precipitation with it as WAA weakens and gives way to
strengthening CAA overnight. Precipitation axis is focused
roughly along Highway 17 and will be fully off the coast of the
Outer Banks by about 20z, although it will only add a tenth or
two of additional precip. Low-level moisture will linger for a
few hours longer so expecting a cloudy close to the evening.
Once more robust CAA kicks in, skies will clear overnight as
temps fall to around freezing Wed AM.

Ongoing rough surf may continue to pose a minor overwash risk to
vulnerable sites between Capes Hatteras and Lookout - see the
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING section for details.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
As of 210 PM Tuesday...

Key Messages..

 - No hazardous weather expected

High pressure firmly in control tomorrow results in clear skies
inland with subsiding northwesterly winds. Exception will be OBX
where CAA strato-cu will straddle the coastline for most of the
day. As is typical in northerly flow, high temps across
Albemarle Sound and northern Outer banks likely overstated by a
few degrees and knocked forecast temps here to the mid to upper
40s. South of Highway 70, temps will jump into the low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1 AM Tuesday...

Key Messages

 - High pressure brings dry conditions and below normal
   temperatures Wednesday and Thursday

 - Another low pressure system is expected to impact the region
   late in the week

High pressure will keep things cool and dry through Thursday
with highs rebounding to the mid 50s.

An unsettled period will start Friday and linger through early
Sunday as another low lifts along the southeast coast and a
series of shortwaves move through aloft. Uncertainty still
remains regarding how close to shore the low will track, but
trends will continue to be monitored. At this time, highest PoPs
are Friday night and into early Saturday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Tuesday...

Key Messages

 - Widespread LIFR conditions to continue for several more
   hours

 - Improving aviation conditions tonight

The last round of moderate to heavy RA is moving through ENC
now, and should exit the area by 22z/5pm. A period of LIFR/IFR
conditions will accompany the RA. Conditions should improve from
west to east later this evening and into tonight as drier air
filters in. The TAFs reflect a somewhat more optimistic timing
of improvement, and this will be monitored for possible updates
later. As we move into tonight, clearing skies, light winds, and
recent rainfall may lead to a risk of BR/FG. However, the
current expectation is that there may be just enough cloudcover
and wind to prevent a higher risk of BR/FG. We`ll continue to
monitor this potential through the night. Regardless, VFR
conditions are then expected throughout the day on Wednesday
with light winds as high pressure moves overhead.

Outlook: The next weather system is slated to move through ENC
Friday and Saturday with another risk of sub VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 225 PM Tuesday...

Key Messages...

 - Gale warning continues into this afternoon; SCA conditions
   linger into Wednesday morning

After a brief but intense period of gales earlier today (Diamond
Shoals appears to be our windiest spot with a gust up to 44 kt
late morning), winds are beginning to ease and veer out of the
west as low pressure lifts off to the north and east. Seas have
responded in kind, currently 8-10 feet south of Cape Hatteras
and 5-8 feet north.

Gale conditions are now likely confined to the warmer waters of
the Gulf Stream, and a downgrade to SCA is likely by late
afternoon. Expecting a relatively brief surge of northwesterly
winds later tonight as stronger CAA takes hold behind the
departing low, and this will impact all waters except for the
inland rivers. Added the Albemarle Sound to the SCA suite
running through Wed morning.

All headlines forecast to end by Wed midday as broad surface
high establishes itself over much of the eastern CONUS. Winds
tomorrow fall to 5-10 kt out of the northwest with seas 3-5
feet.

Outlook: The current forecast should keep all waters headline
free through the weekend. Very marginal SCA conditions are
possible across area waters late Thursday into Friday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 225 PM Tuesday...High Surf Advisory remains in effect
between the Capes through 10 pm tonight. Rough surf threat will
subside through tonight as Gale force winds fall off late this
afternoon, but until then some isolated overwash is possible in
areas with vulnerable dune structure, particularly along
Highway 12 in Ocracoke.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Surf Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NCZ196-204-
     205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ135-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ150.
     Gale Warning until 5 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ152-154-156-
     158.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 4 AM EST
     Wednesday for AMZ230.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...OJC
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...MS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX