Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

631
FXUS62 KMHX 222344
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
644 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Winter Storm Watch has been trimmed in timing a bit to end early
Sunday afternoon, as a warmer and drier airmass will lift into
Eastern NC Sunday afternoon ending the icing threat.

Gale Watch has been converted to a Gale Warning for all of the
coastal waters, with Small Craft Advisories now in effect for
Pamlico/Roanoke/Croatan/Albemarle sounds and the inland rivers.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) An Arctic front will push through the area Friday night with
a low pressure system passing through ENC this weekend,
bringing a wintry mix of some snow, but mostly sleet and
freezing rain to ENC, especially inland areas. Winter Storm
Watch remains in effect for the western counties of the Coastal
Plain of ENC.

2) Cold airmass builds in behind the system through much of next
week with below normal temperatures with highs in the 35-45
degree range and lows 15-25.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
An arctic cold front will push through the area late Friday,
with scattered areas of light rain ahead of it during the day.
Temps will be in the 50s and precip will be all liquid. Arctic
high pressure builds into the area from the north Friday night
behind the front and sets the stage for overrunning wintry mix
on Sat as isentropic ascent increases and wet bulbing keeps
surface temps only in the 30 degree range or so throughout the
day for much of the region. Cold apparent temperatures will be
in place Friday night into Saturday morning with values below 15
degrees possible for northern and western counties. Mix of snow
and sleet will likely break out across ENC late Saturday morning
but increasing into the afternoon and evening hours as
isentropic ascent increases. Limited accums expected during the
day as QPF amounts will be quite light, amounting to only
several hundredths of an inch. However, with cold air and ground
temps, some slick spots will likely begin to develop on some of
the elevated surfaces away from the coast where temps hover
around in the upper 20s to lower 30s much of the day.

By Saturday night, low pressure will develop along stalled
front, coastal trough offshore and begin to more northeastward
and penetrate into Eastern NC through the overnight. The big
change with this forecast is Sat night into Sun. This brings
substantial warming aloft, with 850mb temps fcst to reach
between 5-10C by daybreak Sunday, while stubborn CAD remains at
the sfc west of Hwy 17. Consensus from other 22/12Z model
guidance appears to be converging on the consistent Euro
solution from the last several cycles, which brings sfc warming
above freezing from E to W across ENC through the overnight,
limiting duration of icing for areas along and east of Hwy 17.
West of Hwy 17, the CAD holds strong through Sunday morning,
leading to more prolonged QPF at below freezing temps, and the
watch area looks very good and no changes to areal extent.
At this time fzra amounts look to be in the .20"-.30" range,
with locally higher amounts up to around 0.50" for far western
communities. Have adjusted end time to 2pm for two reasons.
Number one, CAD will erode further inland and temps rise above
freezing in the afternoon, and the warm sector dry slot will
overspread ENC as the low moves through the area.

Regarding winds with arctic front Fri night and Sat morning, it
appears the surge will be brief enough and a bit more marginal
for wind adv headlines on the OBX attm. Water level rises may
rise a bit above normal for southern areas of Pamlico Sound, but
the drought that has been in place and the below average water
levels already in place should prevent any impacts.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Arctic high pressure will build in behind the departing system
through much of next week. Temperatures will be quite a bit
below normal, with highs in the 35-45 degree range, and lows in
the 15-25 degree range. Wind chill values will possibly dip down
through the teens each night and morning beginning Monday night
through much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through most of the TAF period with
deteriorating CIGs tomorrow. Tonight, skies will be OVC with
CIGs around 6-7 kft and scattered light showers. Light westerly
winds will veer to the NNE by sunrise. Tomorrow, scattered
light showers will continue as CIGs lower through the remainder
of the period. OAJ will be flirting with CIGs near MVFR by the
afternoon and is expected to drop below 3 kft around or just
after 00z. EWN and ISO will be hovering just above MVFR CIGs by
tomorrow evening, but they`ve been kept VFR with this TAF
cycle. Light NW winds will back to the NNW through the day.

Outlook: An extended period of sub-VFR conditions is likely
this weekend as a significant winter storm impacts the area. All
winter precip types are possible through the weekend, although
it looks like a mix of rain/freezing rain will be the dominant
P-Types. KISO and KPGV are expected to receive the greatest
impacts due to ice accumulation but ice will be possible at all
terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs show SW winds 5-15 kt with some higher gusts on the
warmer gulf waters Light to moderate winds cont through tonight
with seas mainly 2-4 ft.

Friday through Monday: Gales have been upgraded to warnings for
the coastal waters late Friday night into Saturday, with small
craft advisories for the sounds and rivers. An arctic front will
push through Friday night into Saturday and the resultant strong
northerly winds will quickly build seas to 6+ ft. Winds become
E-SE Sat night then swrly on Sunday as low pressure tracks just
inland from the coast. SCA conditions likely for the warmer and
well mixed gulf stream waters, with sub 20 kt winds elsewhere.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday
     afternoon for NCZ029-044-079-090-091.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Saturday to midnight EST
     Saturday night for AMZ131-135>137-230-231.
     Gale Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Saturday for AMZ150.
     Gale Warning from 1 AM to noon EST Saturday for AMZ152-154.
     Gale Warning from 3 AM to noon EST Saturday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TL
AVIATION...OJC
MARINE...TL