Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

563
FXUS62 KMHX 011814
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
114 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Small Craft Advisories cancelled for the central waters but
remain for the coastal waters south of Ocracoke Inlet through
the afternoon.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warm with showers and thunderstorms possible Wednesday-
Friday

Marine: Elevated winds and seas continue into today, especially
south of Ocracoke.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Little change to the forecast reasoning with
medium range guidance continuing to converge on a solution for
the mid to late-week period, but notable differences remain.
Where guidance is fairly well clustered is with an amplified
upper trough that will be shifting east out of the Central U.S.
While there is still some potential for a cutoff low to develop,
most guidance have now trended towards more of a progressive
and open wave as it moves through the Eastern U.S. Guidance
differ on the timing, which leads to differences in
precipitation placement, temperatures, etc. But, most guidance
is now centering on the best chance of showers and thunderstorms
coming Thursday and/or Friday. Of note, some guidance are
showing anomalous moisture and higher-than-normal instability
for early November. This would support the potential of some
higher rainfall rates and totals should this materialize. It may
even support at least a marginal risk of strong to severe
thunderstorms. While there is some synoptic support for this
potential, machine learning guidance doesn`t show that strong of
a signal. It`s something worth keeping an eye on as the
evolution of the upper level, and surface, pattern become more
clear.

The other aspect of the forecast that appears to be coming more
clear this week is the potential for above to well above normal
temperatures, especially Wednesday and Thursday. While record
highs may not be broken, warming low-level thicknesses in
advance of the approaching trough should support highs warming
into the 70s, with some low 80s possible inland. Meanwhile,
overnight lows are forecast to be closer to our normal highs for
this time of year. Some record warm lows may be in jeopardy.
For reference, normal highs are around 70 in early November,
with normal lows in the 40s inland and 50s along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecast confidence is high over the next 24 hours.

Pred VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Moderate
NE winds continue across rtes this afternoon but will diminish
this evening, especially inland where many locations will likely
decouple. Probs for fog remain low tonight with mid and high
clouds expected to limit radiational cooling, though cannot rule
out patchy shallow fog if sufficient breaks in the clouds
develop. REFS has the highest probs around 20-40% across the
western portions of the Albemarle/Pamlico Peninsula, though
remain less than 20% at the TAF sites.

Outlook: While the weather pattern doesn`t drastically change,
a moistening easterly flow and a weak upper level wave may
support a risk of sub-VFR CIGs and SHRA Monday through Monday
night, especially for coastal TAF sites. Confidence in this risk
developing is moderate. Drier air is expected to move in on
Tuesday, likely lowering the risk of sub-VFR CIGs and SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
A pinched surface gradient remains in place between a coastal
troughing offshore and a strong surface high anchored over the
Mid-Atlantic States. This has supported elevated northeast
winds of 15-25kt through much of the day, highest across the
southern waters. Guidance showing gradients relaxing this
evening with NE winds around 5-15 kt overnight into Monday. Seas
remain around 3-5 ft with up to around 6 ft across the outer
waters south of Cape Hatteras. Have cancelled the Small Craft
Advisory for the central waters but continue south of Ocracoke
through 7 pm.

Outlook: Coastal troughing is forecast to remain intact through
at least the middle of the week, with the strongest gradient
and highest winds focused across the central and southern
waters. The coastal trough may drift inland by Wednesday with
more of a dominant easterly flow developing for most waters. The
flow then begins to become southeasterly by Thursday in the
wake of the inland-advancing coastal trough. Guidance continue
to keep probs for 25kt+ winds low through Thursday. However,
there is a broad signal for low pressure development over the
Southwest Atlantic later in the week. Should this occur, there
may be an accompanying risk of 6ft+ long-period swell
development.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RM/SK
AVIATION...RM/SK
MARINE...RM/SK