Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

977
FXUS62 KMHX 090530
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
130 AM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor adjustments to hourly sensible data through tomorrow
night.

Previous Update...Lowered max t`s by 5-10 degrees for the
northern OBX through the next 4 days. Lowered max t`s by several
degrees overall for ENC through the next 4 days. Increased pops
for shower/storm potential Wed night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Risk of dangerous heat later this week.

2) Pattern expected to become more conducive for showers and
storms late week into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Guidance continues high with low level
thicknesses later this week, with the warmest temperatures
expected Thursday and especially Friday. While temperatures may
flirt with records at best, forecast aids and ensemble guidance
suggest multiple days of well above normal temperatures. This
combined with increasing humidity is forecast to support
widespread "feels like" temperatures of 100-105 degrees, with
the best chance of reaching records and/or heat indices above
105 on Friday. Additionally, the NWS` experimental Heat Risk
guidance shows a moderate to major heat risk for much of ENC
from Friday into the weekend. The one caveat (discussed in more
detail in KEY MESSAGE 2) is the potential for afternoon
showers/storms late in the week as this could provide relief
from the heat for some areas each day.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Increasing moisture and instability beneath
weakening ridging aloft is expected to support a pattern that is
more conducive to a daily risk of convection. Initially this
may be mostly seen as a more active seabreeze. However, by the
weekend there may be some added large-scale forcing from various
upper level impulses forecast to move through, or glance, the
region. While the strongest shear looks to be removed from the
area, moderate to strong instability may support a daily risk of
marginally severe, pulse convection (fairly typical for this
time of year).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A dry, post-frontal airmass is now fully entrenched across ENC.
On the fringe of this airmass is a ribbon of low CIGs that
stretches from SE North Carolina north through SW Virginia.
These low CIGs may get nudged east overnight, but satellite
trends and model guidance suggest the greatest risk of sub-VFR
CIGs will remain just west of our local TAF sites.

On Tuesday, light and variable winds will increase and become
southeasterly by mid to late afternoon into the early evening
hours as the seabreeze moves inland. SCT cumulus development
appears likely along the seabreeze, but the risk of SHRA and
TSRA looks low (<5% chance).

Outlook (Wednesday through Sunday): A warm front will lift
northeast across ENC Tuesday night and may be accompanied by a
few SHRA. A period of low VFR CIGs may develop along this front
as well. From Wednesday into Thursday, an upper level wave may
combine with a moistening and destabilizing airmass to support a
TSRA and sub-VFR risk. Occasionally gusty south to southwest
winds are expected mid-week as well. In general, the weather
pattern looks to continue to be supportive of a daily TSRA risk
into the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
A backdoor cold front has passed through with occasional gusts
of 20-25kt through early evening. Waters favored in northeast
flow (Pamlico Sound, mouth of the Neuse River) appear to have
the highest chance to reach 25kt. It looks a bit marginal and
brief with the wind gusts of aoa 25kt, so will hold off on SCA
issuance attm. Seas of 4-5ft will be common, with some 6-7ft
waves possible for the offshore waters with the flow against the
Gulf Stream. Winds will diminish to 10-15 kt later tonight, and
veer srly to swrly on Tue with speeds remaining in the 10-15 kt
range.

Outlook (Tue night through Sat): High pressure continues to
dominate. From mid to late week, a strengthening swrly flow is
forecast to develop due to the strengthening thermal gradient.
A daily risk of 25kt winds appears likely during this time,
especially Wednesday and Thursday afternoon and evenings when
the thermal gradient is expected to be the strongest.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TL
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...TL