Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

337
FXUS62 KMHX 121923
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
223 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Strong cold front to bring breezy and colder conditions this
weekend, along with a risk of widespread frost/freeze conditions.

Marine: Gale-force winds to continue across the outer coastal waters
through late this evening from Oregon Inlet south through Surf
City.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A pair of cold fronts will traverse ENC over the
next couple of days as an unusually strong upper level trough
develops over the Eastern U.S. The first cold front is currently
moving through central NC. This front will move across ENC between
4pm-10pm. Recent radar imagery shows scattered, high-based showers
developing along the front, and hi-res guidance suggests some of
this activity may make it into ENC this evening. While low-level
moisture is lacking, modest mid-level moisture, weak instability,
and strong forcing along the front appears to support this idea. In
light of the potential, the chance of showers was slightly increased
over the next several hours. No lightning has been observed yet, but
a few strikes cannot be ruled out. Breezy southwest winds will
continue for a few more hours ahead of the front, then a thump of
winds behind the front is possible. Winds were increased for a few
hours just behind the front to account for the enhanced mixing as
strong CAA ensues.

The strong CAA will usher in a noticeably colder airmass compared to
what we have had the past couple of days. This initial front will
knock highs down into the 50s and 60s, with lows in the 40s and 50s.
The second front, which will move through late Friday, will
reinforce the cold airmass. In the wake of that front, highs will
only manage to reach the 50s, while lows tumble into the 20s and 30s
inland, and 30s and 40s along the coast. There was some
consideration for a Freeze Watch for a part of the area Friday
night. However, even the 10th percentile of guidance keeps most of
the area above 32 degrees. While a few sheltered areas may fall
below freezing, the risk of freezing temperatures looks more
marginal Friday night. Additionally, while some areas will fall into
the low to mid 30s, there should be enough wind to prevent frost
development. Therefore, no frost/freeze headlines are planned for
that time period. Looking ahead, there is a much better chance of
frost/freeze conditions Saturday night and Sunday night as a strong
surface high builds in and winds decrease. Headlines will likely be
needed at some point this weekend, and potentially into early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecast confidence is high over the next 24 hours.

A cold front will move through ENC between 21z-03z this evening.
Gusty southwest winds ahead of the front will become westerly as the
front moves through. A period of gusty northwest winds are then
likely to occur for at least a few hours in the wake of the front.
SCT to BKN mid-level clouds and isolated SHRA will be possible
associated with the front as well. Throughout the 18z TAF cycle, VFR
conditions are expected to prevail.

Outlook: Another cold front will move through ENC late Friday with
another round of gusty winds, mid-level clouds, and a few SHRA.
Lighter winds are then expected by early next week. Mostly VFR
conditions are expected over the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds have quickly increased to 15-25kt ahead of an
approaching cold front this afternoon. These winds may build a
little further, peaking now through around 12am-2am tonight. Gale-
force gusts are ongoing across the outer southern coastal waters,
and this risk is still expected to expand northeast across more of
the central outer coastal waters. The Gale Warning covers this
potential nicely, and no changes were needed with this forecast
update. Closer to the coast, there will be a risk of 25kt winds
through tonight, and a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect south
of Oregon Inlet.

Where gale-force winds are ongoing, seas have already reached 5-8ft.
Seas are expected to continue to build, and peak at 6-9ft south of
Cape Hatteras. North of Hatteras, seas of 3-5ft are expected through
tonight. Seas will begin to lay down to 2-5ft for all coastal waters
by Friday afternoon.

A risk of scattered thunderstorms may accompany the cold front as it
moves through the central and southern waters this evening. Areas of
enhanced wind gusts may accompany any thunderstorm that develops.

Outlook: A brief decrease in winds and seas Friday afternoon will be
short-lived as yet another cold front moves through Friday evening
and night. This is expected to be accompanied by a northerly surge
of winds. Guidance have backed off on the winds some with this
surge, but there still appears to be a decent signal for 25kt+ gusts
and elevated seas, especially north of Cape Hatteras. Additional, or
new, marine headlines may be needed for that front. Winds and
seas should lay down by early next week as high pressure builds in.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for AMZ156-158.
     Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Friday for AMZ182-184-186-188.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RM
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...RM