Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

115
FXUS62 KMHX 120708
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
208 AM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in today through mid-week. A low
pressure system will then move through the Mid-Atlantic region
mid-to-late week followed by the potential for another system
late this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 130 AM Monday...Temperatures have fallen through the
overnight hours amidst continuing cold air advection following
yesterday`s cold frontal passage. Temperatures will bottom out
around sunrise in the upper-20s inland (30s beaches). Winds will
continue to relax through the rest of the overnight, becoming
light and variable today as high pressure continues to build in
from the west. Temps will be below normal today, with highs
45-50 F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 130 AM Monday...High pressure ridging in from the
southwest will keep skies mostly clear tonight and allow winds
to remain calm. The low-levels will be quite dry, which will
preclude the risk of any fog development. Lows will again range
from the upper-20s inland to near-40 along the OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 AM Monday...

Key Messages

- Cooler temperatures and dry conditions linger through mid-week

- A low pressure system mid-to-late week will bring the next
  chance of rain, with some potential (10-30%) for a wintry mix
  or light snow as it moves offshore Thursday night

- Another system will impact the region late this coming weekend

Early this week...High pressure will prevail over the region,
bringing cooler temperatures and drier conditions. High temps
warm into the upper-50s Tuesday/Wednesday, with overnight lows
in the 30s and 40s.

Mid week into next weekend...Guidance suggests that a weak wave
of low pressure will travel up the East Coast Wednesday into
Wednesday night, bringing the next potential chances of rain to
ENC. Guidance differs on the coverage of precipitation and its
proximity to shore, but some guidance has trended a bit wetter
on Wednesday. Thus, have PoPs ranging from slight chance inland
to likely along the coast Wednesday into Wednesday night. A cold
front is then likely to push through ENC before advancing
offshore Thursday, bringing additional rain chances. In
addition, a stronger low pressure system is forecast to form
near the Mid-Atlantic region on Thursday. There continues to be
large differences in the location, timing, and strength of this
low within available guidance, but potential (10-30%) remains
for a change over to a wintry mix or light snow as the system
pulls away from the coast Thursday night. It is still too early
for any discussion on impacts or accumulation potential,
especially given continuing large spread amongst available
guidance. Another system may then impact the area late next
weekend. Temps will remain slightly below climo.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 12 AM Monday...

Key Messages

 - Gusty conditions lessen through the night

VFR flight cats expected through the TAF period with some gusty
winds currently being only concern. NWerly winds 10G15-25kt
inland right now, increasing to 15-20G20-30kt along OBX. Winds
will decrease to around 5 knots inland, 10G15-20kt along OBX by
daybreak. SKC in place through Monday with significantly
lighter NWerly winds becoming SWerly by sunset.

Outlook: Pred VFR flight cats expected through much of the
longterm with high pressure in control. Winds become light
overnight MON but airmass should be too dry for any fog
development. While there is still a lot of uncertainty, a low
pressure system Thursday could bring precip, lower ceilings, and
gusty winds with it.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 200 AM Monday...

Key Messages...

- SCA conditions linger into late this morning across most area
  waters. Conditions improve through the day as high pressure
  builds into the region.

- SCA conditions possible Wednesday and Thursday, with gale
  force winds possible Thursday night

Winds have gradually trended downward through the first portion
of the overnight hours, with the latest obs showing winds
generally 15-25 kt with gusts 20-30 kt. All Gale Warnings have
been converted to SCA`s as gusts have fallen below Gale
criteria. SCA conditions will linger through late this morning,
with winds diminishing to 10 kt or less by the afternoon as high
pressure builds into the area. Winds will remain light through
Monday night, becoming southwesterly at 10 kt with gusts to 15
kt on Tuesday. Seas 4-7 ft will subside to 2-4 ft by this
afternoon. Seas 2-3 ft then expected on Tuesday.

Outlook: The next round of SCA conditions is likely to develop
Wednesday and Thursday as the next low pressure system passes
through the area, with the potential for gale force winds
Thursday night.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST early this morning for
     AMZ131-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ135-
     156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...ZC
SHORT TERM...ZC
LONG TERM...ZC
AVIATION...RJ
MARINE...ZC