Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

227
FXUS62 KMHX 121033
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
633 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Lowered PoPs for today and tomorrow given recent trends.

Updated Aviation Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Hot and humid conditions will continue into the end of the
workweek bringing high probabilities for major heat risk impacts
over much of the area.

2) Summertime pattern continues over the next several days
with daily chances for shower and thunderstorm activity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Warm and muggy with temps in the 70s across ENC
and some debris clouds from shower and thunderstorm activity
well to the west overspreading portions of the CWA this morning.
These debris clouds likely have some impact on rain chances
today as well as high temps. Either way, still expecting it to
be hot and muggy across ENC for yet another day with highs in
the low to mid 90s inland and mid 80s across the OBX. Temps will
be slightly muted and how hot we get today will largely depend
on how long debris clouds from overnight activity hang around
the area this morning. For now, expect the area to be partly to
mo cloudy this morning with some clearing this afternoon.
Combined with dewpoints in the 70s expecting heat indices
between 95-104F this afternoon. While this will be just below
heat advisory criteria, it will still remain rather hot today.

Expecting hot and humid conditions to continue into the end of
the workweek across ENC. Low level thicknesses will remain
around 1430m and based off the offices climatological study,
this is forecast to result in highs in the mid to upper 90s
across the inland areas and upper 80s to low 90s along the OBX
and coast Thurs/Fri before a front impacts the region Fri
evening into Sat resulting in cooler temperatures this weekend.
Temps may briefly warm up once again early next week as well.

Heat indices are expected to peak around 105-110F Thurs and Fri
with heat headlines possible for much of the area both days. We
encourage anyone planning on spending alot of time outdoors
this week to take proper precautions and stay hydrated.

KEY MESSAGE 2...There have been some changes to the precip
forecast over the next few days. While we still expect chances
for showers and thunderstorms each day across ENC into this
weekend, chances look to have lowered a fair amount at least in
the near term (today/tomorrow) given the latest trends. While
we still expect several shortwaves to ride along the northern
periphery of an upper level ridge centered across the Gulf
Coast this week, a mix of cloud cover today and some subsidence
aloft today and into the early part of tomorrow, may put a
damper on precip chances with any MCS`s that ride along the
surface ridging remaining to our west today. Because of this
have only kept SChc PoPs along the sea breeze this afternoon as
a result. Have a slightly better chance tomorrow evening but
even that has higher uncertainty than normal given it is highly
dependent on if an MCS can track far enough east to bring
precip to ENC. Either way, with a moist and unstable airmass in
place, could see isolated seabreeze storms develop this
afternoon and again on Thurs afternoon.

A stronger northern stream shortwave is progged to push across
the Mid-Atlantic Friday with the attendant cold front pushing
into the area Fri evening into Sat bringing the best forcing
and chances for widespread showers and storms across the area.
High pressure build into the area over the weekend bringing
bringing a drier airmass and minimal chances for storms.
However, a second frontal boundary looks to approach next week
which could once again bring increased chances for showers and
storms early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AMD NOT SKED is kept for EWN with spotty observations. TAFs
will continue to be issued while the issue is troubleshooted.
NKT is the closest ASOS. EWN is able to be dialed into to
receive latest observations.

A primarily VFR TAF through the period as a mix of light S to
SW`rly winds and high clouds persist this morning across ENC.
Winds look to turn more westerly later this morning and into the
afternoon, but will remain light. Outside of the daily
seabreeze, diurnal Cu develops around 4-5 kft this afternoon.
Recent trends also suggest precip chances remain low for today
and as a result have precluded any mention of precip in the TAFs
today. Expect VFR ceilings/vis to continue through tonight as
well.

Outlook (Thursday through Sunday): Primarily VFR conditions and
light winds are expected Thurs and into Fri, but there will be
isolated to widely scattered convection possible each afternoon
and evening that could bring periods of sub-VFR conditions. A
cold front is progged to push through the area late
Friday/Friday night that will bring the best chances for
prolonged sub-VFR conditions. VFR conditions return Sun as high
pressure briefly builds into the area. In addition, there is a
low end chance for patchy ground fog to develop each morning
with best chances in areas that saw significant rainfall the
previous afternoon/evening.

&&

.MARINE...
No real changes to the forecast as rather benign boating
conditions are expected through at least Fri morning across
ENC. W-SW winds around 5-15 kt during the morning hours, will
increase each afternoon to around 10-20 kt and become S-SW
today, Thurs, and again on Fri as temps warm inland bringing a
tightening of gradients between the thermal trough inland and
the offshore high. Gusts may approach SCA conditions across the
Pamlico, Croatan/Roanoke Sounds and coastal waters north of Cape
Hatteras at times but currently not anticipating any SCA
headlines for any waters given the short and infrequent nature
of any stronger gusts. Seas will remain around 1-3 ft into Fri.
As we get into Fri afternoon and evening an approaching cold
front will strengthen the gradient and while not explicitly
stated, bring the potential for stronger and near SCA force wind
gusts and 3-5 ft seas to our waters. Will have to monitor
trends incase SCA`s are needed in the coming days. A return to
more benign boating conditions are then forecast Sat night into
Sun as high pressure ridging builds into the area.

A series of shortwave troughs will push across the coastal waters
through the end of the week continuing to bring periods of
showers and thunderstorms, most prevalent being nocturnal driven
over the Gulf Stream waters. A cold front is progged to push
across the waters late Friday/Friday night bringing the best
chance to see showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RCF
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...RCF