Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

103
FXUS62 KMHX 310824
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
424 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Rain and Small Craft Advisory chances increasing for
Sunday/Monday.


&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Seasonable and mostly dry through Saturday.

2) Warm front moves through Sunday morning, with above average
rain chances Sunday through early next week.

Marine: SCA conditions likely to develop Sunday into Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1... High pressure continues to keep enough dry air
in place and subsidence aloft to preclude a rain threat through
Saturday outside maybe a stray, short lived seabreeze shower.
In fact, the 7/31 00Z KMHX sounding had PWATs of around 1",
which is climatologically near the 10th percentile for the time
of the year. Light winds and seasonable temps again today, with
light westerly winds become southerly behind the sea breeze.
Temps near 90s inland, mid 80s along the coast. High gradually
shifts offshore tonight, with the return of synoptically
southerly flow Saturday. With the onshore flow, atmospheric
profile gradually moistens, but given how dry we are the
moisture will not rebound fast enough for an appreciable rain
chance Saturday. Despite the low chances for rain Saturday, we
should see an increase in cloud cover, which will keep temps
Saturday similar to today (near 90 inland, mid 80s along the
coast) despite the southerly flow.

Despite the calm winds and mostly clear skies paired with recent
rainfall, the subsidence should be strong enough to prevent
impactful fog formation this morning and Saturday morning.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Sunday morning an upper trough will be deepening
over the Ohio Valley as it moves towards the eastern seaboard,
while at the surface an associated closed low is expected to
traverse the Great Lakes region. As these features move east,
they will encounter the Bermuda high and the upper trough over
the Ohio Valley is expected to stall before reaching the
eastern seaboard. While the main trough stalls, embedded
shortwaves rounding the base of the trough may advect into the
region Sunday through at least Monday. These features, in
addition to the sea breeze each afternoon/evening, will be the
main forcing present for a notable increase in precip chances.


Sunday morning the warm front will be moving through, with maybe
some more stratiform along it and dewpoints increasing behind
it. As the day progresses and the profile moistens, the
environment becomes more favorable for more robust convection to
occur. In the afternoon/evening hours, we could see enough
recovery paired with forcing aloft for showers and
thunderstorms. Cloud cover will play a big role in how large
CAPEs can truly get, but with the dewpoints rising there should
be enough instability entering the region for CAPE values of
1000-2000 J/kg Sunday. While shear is not too impressive with
the unidirectional SE flow, the combination of long, skinny
CAPEs, PWATs over 2", and slow storm motions could result in
heavy rainfall rates. where storms develop. Precip coverage
Sunday is expected to be more scattered in nature with two foci
for convection. First is along the coast where showers can tap
into Gulf Stream instability throughout the day along and behind
the warm front, and second is in the afternoon/evening hours
along the Coastal Plain west of hwy 17 where forcing is a bit
better thanks to closer proximity to the trough.

Monday the trough is still stalled to our west, but is just a
little bit closer allowing for weak height falls and weak
embedded shortwaves to move through aloft. This better forcing,
paired with another day of long skinny CAPEs and PWATs north of
2" brings high precip chances with heavy rainfall rates and slow
storm motion vectors. The better forcing likely brings with it
better coverage of precip. All this brings flash flooding
concerns to mind, especially with how much rain has been
observed in many locations in the past 1-2 weeks. We are
currently in a Marginal (level 1/5) Excessive Rain Outlook for
Sunday. What prevents it from being higher is likely the
uncertainty on instability with antecedent cloud cover and the
lack of substantial ground-level forcing. With high temps
forecast to only be in the low to mid 80s Sunday, the sea
breeze may be weak in nature.

Beyond Monday, the trough/low is still expected to linger to our
west until eventually it gets picked up and shifted to our north
by another trough moving through the Great Lakes region. As a
result, daily elevated precip chances continue through mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Pred VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with mainly
diurnal Cu through peak heating. Given calm winds and clear
skies overnight, cannot completely rule out patchy shallow
ground fog but given a very dry airmass just above the surface,
any impacts will be minimal. HREF and REFS probs are less than
15 percent for vsbys less than 5SM. Winds remain light today,
less than 10 kt, with the sea breeze pushing inland during the
afternoon.

Outlook (Friday night through Tuesday): It remains dry with
primarily VFR conditions forecast tonight through Sat as high
pres builds overhead and eventually pushes offshore. Periods of
shallow early morning fog and/or stratus possible Friday and
Saturday nights. Periods of sub- VFR may develop Sun into early
next week with with a warm front moving through.

&&

.MARINE...
Benign boating conditions are noted across our area waters early
this morning as high pressure continues to build in from the
north and west bringing widespread 5-10 kt winds coming from the
west and 2-3 ft seas to ENC. Expect winds to remain light
through today remaining around 5-10 kts while seas across our
offshore waters remain around 2-3 ft with dry conditions
forecast. Flow becomes more southerly tonight and remains
around 5-10 kts as high shifts offshore.


Outlook (Saturday through Tue): Southerly flow continues
through Sat with seas persisting at 2-3 ft as high pressure
pushes offshore. Southerly winds will strengthen Sunday to 15-25
kts with gusts up to 25-30 kts across ahead of an approaching
front. Seas will also respond building closer to 4-7 ft across
the coastal waters bringing an increasing chance of SCA
conditions to much of our waters (outside maybe inland rivers) Sun
into Mon. In addition to this, increasing chances for showers
and thunderstorms will be possible as well starting Sun.
Winds/Seas begin to ease later Mon into Tue with weak high
pressure building overhead and aforementioned front dissipating
to the west.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RJ
AVIATION...RJ
MARINE...RJ