Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

579
FXUS62 KMHX 081115
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
715 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
High Surf Advisory has been expanded to NOBX. All beaches from
Duck to Cape Lookout are under a High Surf Advisory through
tonight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Stiff winds over ENC and low pressure passing offshore will
build seas today and into late week bringing high surf criteria
to the OBX. This high surf will pose wave run up and ocean
overwash concerns for vulnerable portions of the OBX, mainly
Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands.

2) Warming trend in the wake of yesterday`s front. Below normal
temps through FRI morning. Near normal temps FRI, but
continuing to warm to well above normal temperatures this
weekend and into next week.

3) Fire weather conditions will continue to be monitored closely
due to no appreciable rainfall, a dry airmass, and drying of
fuels as temps warm into next week.

Marine...Mix of gales and small craft advisory conditions over
all area waters today. Though winds begin to relax today, sea
driven SCAs to follow the gales for coastal waters, potentially
lasting into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Strong NEerly winds over ENC owing to ridging
building down from the N and a low pressure wave traveling
along yesterday`s front passing offshore. These strong winds
have led to large waves which will last through tonight. As the
winds relax through the day, wave period will increase, leading
to wave runup concerns and ocean overwash at particularly
vulnerable locations along the OBX coast from Oregon Inlet S
through Cape Lookout at times of high tide. Existing high surf
advisory has been expanded to cover the NOBX. Latest deterministic
guidance has backed off on the depth and definition of the low
traveling along the front as well as keeping it further
offshore. This trend has cut down on the longevity of the
coastal concerns due to the strong swell, but has not eliminated
the risk for today and tonight. For the high surf advisory,
there will be the potential for breaking waves around 8 ft along
the affected beaches. As mentioned above, this could lead to
some minor ocean overwash due to wave runup.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Cool high pressure builds down NECONUS before
sinking S of the FA FRI. This will keep a NEerly flow regime in
place through the remainder of the work-week, continuing to
advect a relatively cool maritime airmass over ENC through then.
Temps below average Today with MaxTs in the upper 50s NEern
zones, low 60s in the SW. MinTs tonight in the upper 30s
inland where skies are expected to remain clear and winds will
be lighter, and around mid 40s Inner Banks where stratus
advecting onshore and slightly stronger winds will dampen
cooling. Some potential for frost development overnight and
tomorrow morning inland, especially should winds decouple,
which would make the current MinT forecast in a slightly mixed
airmass too warm. Building low level thicknesses through the
end of the work week allows warming temps despite the light
NEerly flow regime, upper 60s THU, mid 70s FRI. Sun afternoon,
stout SFC high rotates off the Mid- Atlantic coast, veering
local winds more Eerly SUN and then becoming Serly early next
week allowing further warming; MaxTs approaching 90 inland at
the end of the forecast period (next WED).

KEY MESSAGE 3...Further offshore solutions of a weaker low
traveling along yesterday`s front and a lower likelihood of
a coastal trough developing has continued to trend the late-
week forecast drier. Relaxing winds through the remainder of the
work-week should preclude any fire weather headlines, but the
precip-free and warming forecast will lead to the rapid drying
of fuels through the long term., This will lead to the potential
for fire weather concerns next week when stronger winds are
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR flight cats are expected through the period. NE winds at
5-10 kt will become 10-15 kt with gusts to 15-20 kt later this
morning (15-20 kt, gust 25-30+ kt OBX). Skies will remain clear
or mostly clear for the majority of the area until later this
afternoon when few to scattered high clouds will develop.
Tonight, NE winds will decrease to 5-10 kt (10-20 kt OBX) and
broken to overcast CIGs will develop. Areas near the coast will
see low-level clouds (3-5 kft) while areas farther inland will
see mainly high clouds.

Outlook: Low VFR or MVFR CIGs are possible tonight into
Thursday morning for terminals near the coast. After improvement
during the day Thursday, a risk of sub-VFR conditions may once
again develop Thursday night, this time due to BR/FG.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure building down the coast behind the front has led
to strong NEerly winds. Current obs show 20-30G35-40kt over all
coastal waters and Pamlico Sound with 15-25G30kt over the
remaining inside waters. Seas have built to 7-13 ft at 8-9sec
across the coastal waters with wind chop on the top. Highest
seas over the Gulf Stream where wind wave and swell direction
opposes the current. Mix of small craft and gale force
conditions to our waters. These elevated winds and seas will
continue into Wed morning before gradually easing as NE`rly
winds lower to 15-25 kts with gusts up to 25-35 kts. Seas will
continue to remain elevated at 7-11ft with periods increasing
further closer to 9-10 sec. This will bring an end to the gales
across the Pamlico Sound and central waters by this evening,
though gales will likely persist across our Sern waters into
tonight. SCAs across all other waters will also remain in place
as well into Wed night.

Outlook: Winds easing by THU morning will allow all Gale
Warnings to expire with SCA to follow behind. 6+ft seas will
remain in place across our coastal waters through at least
Saturday. Winds become generally 10-15kt, still out of the N-NE
THU night. 10kt or less, briefly becoming SEerly across all
waters FRI as high pressure sinks south of regional waters.
Another ridge shifts across NECONUS over the weekend once again
leading NEerly winds SAT night and SUN, continuing to veer to
become S and then SWerly early next week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ196-
     203>205.
     High Surf Advisory from noon today to 11 AM EDT Thursday for
     NCZ196-203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ131-
     230-231.
     Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ136.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ137.
     Gale Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for AMZ150.
     Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ152-154.
     Gale Warning until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CEB
AVIATION...OJC
MARINE...CEB