Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

998
FXUS62 KMHX 202341
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
641 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Marine Dense Fog Advisory for coastal waters has been extended
into tonight.

Trended upwards with winds for Sunday-Monday, and introduced a
trace to 0.2" snowfall accumulations for Northern OBX and much
of the Pamlico-Albemarle Peninsula.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Sea fog risk to linger into tonight, especially for the
coastal waters and immediate coastal areas from Surf City to
Hatteras

2) A weakening cold front is approaching the area today with a
line of gusty pre- frontal showers and isolated thunderstorms
currently moving through the region

3) High temperatures may approach record values today.

4) Low pressure system is forecast to bring unsettled
conditions to ENC late this weekend into early next week.

Marine...Sea fog risk to linger into tonight, especially for
the coastal waters and immediate coastal areas from Surf City to
Hatteras. There is a chance for gale force winds late this
weekend into early next week across our waters as a rapidly
deepening low pushes off the Mid-Atantic Coast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)...Warm and moist SW flow across the much cooler
coastal waters should support a renewed risk of sea fog across
much of the ENC coastal waters this evening. This may lead to
reduced visibilities for some coastal communities, especially
from the Crystal Coast through the southern OBX. Winds shifting
to the E/NE late tonight should help scour out any lingering
sea fog.

KEY MESSAGE 2)...An upper low is tracking across the Great
Lakes today with an attendant cold front approaching from the
west. Embedded shortwave energy is pushing across the region
with warm and moist SW flow ahead of the front bringing a line
of showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. The warm
and moist conditions has allowed for modest instability across
inland locations with RAP mesoanalysis showing CAPE of around
1000 J/Kg this afternoon while strengthening deep layer SW winds
has brought 0-6 km bulk shear to around 50 kt. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to remain sub-severe but they could
bring locally gusty winds up to 40 knots. This is reinforced by
the 42 kt observed gust near Goldsboro at KGSB as the line went
through. The greatest threat for wind gusts 30-40 knots is
inland as the cold waters along the coast and sounds bringing
much more stable conditions along the coast.

KEY MESSAGE 3)...Increasing SW flow across the region today
will bring low level thickness around 1390-1395m across inland
locations this afternoon which brings the potential for temps to
reach the upper 70s to lower 80s if sufficient insolation is
realized. Clouds and showers moving through the region are
helping bring temps down from west to east, so best shot of 80F
would be for areas along hwy 17 where showers will move through
later on this afternoon. Record highs are in the lower 80s
inland from the coast and the record values for established
climate sites can be found in the CLIMATE section below. Across
the immediate coast and OBX, below normal water temperatures
will keep these areas cooler with highs in the 50s to 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 4)...Guidance remains in good agreement with a
positively tilted shortwave tracking across the Pacific
Northwest and into the Plains late this week with the trough
taking on a more negative tilt and deepening slightly as it
pushes off the coast early next week. At the mid levels southern
stream shortwave quickly traverses the CONUS reaching the
Southeast by Sun/Mon while a northern stream shortwave dives
S`wards at the same time potentially phasing with the southern
stream as it pushes off the Mid-Atlantic coast. At the surface,
cold front will drop SE`wards across ENC late tonight and stall
south of the area on Saturday with a wave of low pressure then
riding along this stalled front and deepening after it pushes
offshore bringing chances for rain across the region this
weekend. Precipitation gradually ends from west to east Sun
night into Monday with strong CAA ramping up behind the
departing low as it rapidly deepens off the Mid-Atlantic coast
allowing temps to fall into the 30s. There is a chance for a non
impactful rain/snow mix towards the end of the event this
weekend Sun night into Mon. While some of the more aggressive
models are suggesting over an inch of snowfall for the northern
tier of counties, this is expected to be the typical cold air
chasing the moisture setup. For this reason, confidence is still
moderate to high that we will see less than an inch of snow
around the Albemarle Sound. However, with a large amount of
ensemble members suggesting minor snowfall accumulations Along
the Albemarle Sound, have added T-0.2" of snowfall accumulations
with this update Sunday night/Monday morning. In addition, have
introduced a couple hours of chc/schc snow in the forecast for
this northern tier, as the previous forecast had rain/snow. A
shortwave rotating through the departing low may keep low clouds
and light precip lingering through much of Monday, although we
will have dried up a decent amount at that point. We will need
to be on the lookout for stronger winds on the backside of the
low as it departs and deepens as this could bring additional
coastal impacts as a worst case scenario.

Biggest challenge with this setup will be when the low begins
to deepen as a weaker and more out to sea low track will result
in lower impacts from this system while a stronger and closer to
the coast track will bring greater impacts to the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Light southwest winds will continue for several more hours this
evening in advance of a cold front approaching from the west.
Weak moisture advection within that flow, pre-conditioned low-
levels from earlier rain, and perhaps some radiational cooling
effects could support a risk of reduced VIS in BR/FG through
about 06z/1am tonight. After that time, drier air is forecast to
filter in behind the passing cold front. For now, the greatest
risk of FG appears to be along the coast, with less certainty
inland. Because of the uncertainty, the TAFs will show VFR
conditions through the night. This potential will be closely
monitored. Increasing moisture aloft behind the front should
support the development of widespread light to moderate RA late
tonight into Saturday. Rainfall rates look to be light, and this
should support mostly VFR VIS. There may be enough elevated
instability to support a very low-end TSRA risk near the Crystal
Coast on Saturday.

Moderate westerly winds above the low-level inversion will support
an increased risk of LLWS impacts through around 05z-07z this
evening, mainly from KISO east through KFFA.

Outlook: MVFR and IFR flight cats possible Sat night and Sun as
an area of low pressure travels through the area along tonight`s
front that will have stalled to the south, bringing likely rain,
lower CIGs/VIS, and stronger winds into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Warm and moist SW flow advecting over cool SSTs is expected to
support the redevelopment of sea fog this evening, with the risk
potentially lasting through much of the night, especially south
of Cape Hatteras. A Marine Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for
the waters most at risk. We`ll continue to re-evaluate this
potential through the night, as changes to the ongoing headlines
may be needed.

A stationary front located to our north has increasing SW flow
doe ENC this afternoon as a cold front approaches from the
west. SW winds around 10-20 kt across much of the cooler
waters, but offshore near the warmer Gulf Stream waters have
seen winds around 20-30 kt. Seas are forecast to build to around
4-7 ft along warmer waters in response with the stronger winds.
Winds and seas will diminish tonight with a cold front pushing
across the area and stalling offshore. An SCA remains in effect
south of Oregon Inlet until late tonight.

Outlook: A strong low pressure system is forecast to impact the
coastal waters on Sunday with strong SCA to Gale Force
conditions likely Sunday night into Monday as the low rapidly
deepens off the Mid-Atlantic coast. The strength and location of
the low will go a long way in determining what conditions our
coastal waters see so continue to keep a close eye on forecast
trends in the coming days in case the forecast trends more
optimistic or pessimistic. It is worth noting, with this update
the winds have trended up a notch, 35-40 knot gusts along much of
our coastal waters, 25-35 knot gusts elsewhere.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for Friday 02/20

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern         81/1991  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    74/2018  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville       81/2018  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    73/1994  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston          82/1939  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     82/1991  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ150-152-
     154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EST Saturday for AMZ152-154-
     156.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for AMZ156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for AMZ158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SK/RJ/RM
AVIATION...RM/CQD
MARINE...SK/RJ/RM