Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

504
FXUS62 KMHX 071118
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
618 AM EST Wed Jan 7 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures dominate with mostly dry conditions
for ENC through the rest of the week. A cold front will move
through this weekend and bring chances for scattered showers.
A return to colder and drier early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 3 AM Wed...Mostly sunny and very warm today as a weak and
dry cold front tracks across the area but brings westerly
downsloping winds. Highs will reach the 70 degree mark for many,
including the Crystal Coast due to the offshore wind flow, and
60s on the OBX with onshore westerly flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
As of 3 AM Wed...Quiet and mild tonight with temps cont above
climo. Lows range from the upper 30s to lower 40s for most, with
near 50 on the beaches and OBX. Backdoor cool front moves
through with winds becoming northerly but remaining less than 5
mph or so.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 2 PM Tuesday...

Thursday through Friday...This fropa won`t bring much of a
change in sensible weather as highs only drop a little bit, with
readings in the 60s inland to 55-60 on the OBX. The boundary
will quickly lift back north as a warm front and increase temps
on Friday to the mid 70s across the coastal plain and 60s at the
beaches.

Saturday through Sunday...Our next cold front will approach the
area this weekend. Very light and spotty rain showers on Sat as
weak prefrontal trough affects the coast, but most of the day
will remain dry. Temps will reach their warmest marks of the
week ahead of the front on Saturday with highs in the mid to
perhaps a few upper 70s across the coastal plain and 60s at the
beaches. Front moves through on Sunday, but QPF remains light
and showers more sct in nature, thus pops remain in the 30-40%
range. CAA on Sunday with falling temps late in the day as front
moves through in the afternoon.

Early next week...Cool but seasonable temperatures and mostly
dry weather is forecast for early next week behind the
aforementioned front as an upper level trough moves overhead.
But, overall no significant weather is currently forecast for
this period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 620 AM Wednesday...

Key Messages

 - Chance for brief MVFR/IFR low stratus and fog early this
   morning

Predominantly VFR conditions anticipated with a brief period of
MVFR to IFR conditions possible early this morning. High
pressure remains offshore with southwesterly flow across the
area. While winds are diminishing slightly across ENC, the low-
levels will not completely east of hwy 17. West of hwy 17, a
break in the clouds and better chances of decoupling will allow
some shallow fog to form over the next 1-3 hours, until 9 AM. HREF,
which has been very bullish on an expansive low stratus deck,
has backed off a bit with the 00Z run, with the time lag models
incorporated into the 00Z run really the only ones showing the
expansive stratus deck. With this in mind, I expect the low
stratus to be more transient and scattered in nature, with
shallow fog becoming more widespread west of hwy 17. Have
continued backing off a bit on the low stratus messaging in
this round of TAFs, but added vis reduction mentions to TAFs for
the next couple hours. Later this morning into the afternoon,
skies clear out and winds at 5-10 kt remain SW, becoming NW
around 5 kt behind a dry cold front Wednesday night.

Outlook:
Predominant VFR conditions expected beyond Wednesday as dry cold
front moves through and high pressure builds in to end the work
week into Saturday. Rain chances this weekend could bring
reductions in flight categories.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 3 AM Wed...

Key Messages...

 - Strong SCA winds and high seas on the Gulf Stream waters
   through this morning.

 - Improving conditions this afternoon into Thu as high
   pressure builds back in.

 - Another round of SCA conditions, esp on the Gulf waters south
   of Oregon Inlet Friday into the weekend with approaching
   strong cold front.

 - Frontal passage on Sunday with ensuing cold advection gusty
   northwest winds all waters and sounds possible.

Today...Ongoing w to sw winds 20-30 kt on the mixed Gulf stream
waters cont this morning. Stable marine layer tempering winds to
10-20 kt on the sounds and northern waters. Winds and seas
diminish through this afternoon. Backdoor front tonight with
winds becoming north but only 5-15 kt.

Thursday through Friday...High pressure will build back in on
Thursday with 5-10 kt NE winds and 1-3 ft seas. Winds will veer
to the S on Friday out ahead of the next approaching cold front
and increase to 10-20 kt with seas building to 3-4 ft.

Saturday through Sunday...A strong cold front will approach this
weekend, increasing S to SW winds and building seas to SCA
levels on the warmer gulf waters.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for AMZ152-154-156.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...TL/RCF
AVIATION...RJ
MARINE...TL