Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

996
FXUS62 KMHX 102008
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
408 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with the latest forecast package.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Hot and humid conditions continue this afternoon with the
area in the major heat risk category.

2) There is a chance for some strong thunderstorms this evening
and continuing into the weekend as a cold front approaches the
area from the north.

3) Increasing chances for hot and humid conditions to return
next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Another hot afternoon with temperatures in the
mid to upper 90s inland and upper 80s/lower 90s along the
coast. Dew point temps have dropped into the mid to upper 60s
well inland and low to mid 70s closer to the coast. The lower
dewpoints have made it feel slightly more comfortable, but it
is still quite hot with heat indices generally around 100-105
but a few warmer locations have climbed into the 105-110 degree
range. Will continue the Heat Advisory through the afternoon as
advertised.

Low level thicknesses decrease several meters on Sat with temps
a few degrees lower while dewpoints begin to creep back up resulting
in another day with heat index values around 100 degrees with
the heat risk in the moderate range for most of the area with
just a small area near the coast reaching the major criteria.
Given the lower heat risk and heat index values, a Heat Advisory
will not be issued for Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Showers and thunderstorms associated with an MCV
is pushing across the Carolina piedmont this afternoon and is
progged to pushing to ENC early this evening, though isolated
thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon. With MLCAPE
currently around 1500-2000 J/Kg and 0-6km bulk shear around
20-25 kt, a few storms will have the capability of becoming
strong to marginally severe. Damaging wind gusts are the primary
threat with the storm with DCAPE as high as 1300 J/Kg across
the region. SPC has increased ENC to a marginal risk (level 1
of 5) for severe weather this afternoon and evening.

A mid level shortwave and surface front approaching from the
north and west Saturday and move through the area late Saturday
night into Sunday morning before pushing off the coast. A moist
and unstable environment persists ahead of the front with
improving upper level forcing and could see strong to severe
thunderstorms again Saturday afternoon and evening. Instability
generally ranges from 1000-2000 J/kg of ML CAPE Sat with deep
layer shear increasing slightly to 25-30 kts. Combined with
greater upper level support, thunderstorms could become more
organized Sat afternoon bringing a damaging wind threat (40-60
mph gusts) to much of ENC on Sat. SPC has also outlined ENC
under a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather again
on Saturday.

Upper level troughing continues across the area on Sunday
bringing the continued threat of showers and thunderstorms
across the area, however northeast post frontal flow will keep
a bit lower and the severe thunderstorm threat is limited. PW
values do increase to around 2" and storm motions favorable for
training/or slow moving cells that could produce locally heavy
rainfall with the potential for localized flooding in low-lying
areas.

KEY MESSAGE 3...While we cool down at the beginning of next
week under NE`rly flow, hot and humid conditions return to the
area bringing yet another threat for an extended period of hot
and humid conditions late next week. NWS probabilistic heat
risk guidance suggests much of the area has a 50% + chance at
seeing major heat risk levels starting around Thurs/Fri next
week and CPC has put ENC under a moderate risk for hazardous
temperatures during this timeframe as well.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Pred VFR conditions across rtes this afternoon. A line of
showers and thunderstorms will push across rtes this evening
bringing the threat of sub-VFR conditions. Some storms may also
bring heavy rain and strong wind gusts. Conditions improve
after midnight but some guidance shows a few showers lingering
into the early morning hours. Probabilities for fog and stratus
remains low tonight with HREF and REFS showing less than 10%
chance. An active pattern continues on Saturday as an upper
trough and sfc cold front approach the region with strong to
severe storms possible in the the afternoon. SW winds will
prevail ahead of the front and expect gusts around 15-20 kt
during the afternoon.

Outlook (Saturday night through Tuesday): An upper level trough
and associated surface front push through the area early Sunday
bringing increasing chances for showers and storms as well as
sub-VFR conditions to ENC. Could see improving conditions on
Monday with mainly VFR conditions forecast Mon and Tue under
clearing skies and light NE winds.

&&

.MARINE...
SW wind increase late this afternoon and evening to around
15-25 kt with seas building to around 4-7 ft. Strongest winds
will occur over the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet and
continue the SCA in these zones through late tonight.
Conditions gradually improve through the day Saturday.

Outlook (Saturday night through Tuesday): A backdoor cold front
drops through the waters late Saturday night and Sunday with
winds becoming NE around 10-20 kt with seas building to 3-5 ft.
A weak area of low pressure may form along the stalled front to
the south Monday keeping E-NEly flow across the waters through
early next week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ045>047-080-
     081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SK/RCF
AVIATION...SK/RCF
MARINE...SK/RCF