Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

950
FXUS62 KMHX 101143
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
743 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Forecast on track.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warming trend this weekend, followed by potentially record
breaking above normal conditions developing next week.

2) Worsening drought and fire weather conditions anticipated
over the next 7 days with no rainfall forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Building low level thicknesses today through
the weekend will allow warming temps to near and slightly above
normal. By Sunday afternoon, stout surface high rotates off the
Mid- Atlantic coast as anomalously strong ridging anchors itself
aloft, veering local winds more easterly Sunday and then
becoming SE early next week allowing further warming. Highs will
climb into the 90s by next week, with potentially multiple days
of records being threatened starting Tuesday and Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Forecast continues to be dry for the
foreseeable future. Relaxing winds through the remainder of the
work-week should preclude any fire weather headlines, but the
precip-free and warming forecast will lead to the rapid drying
of fuels through the long term. This will lead to the potential
for fire weather concerns next week when stronger winds are
forecast.

Worsening drought conditions are possible by early next week as
soils continue to dry after a soaking rain last weekend. The
forecast area remains in a Severe Drought (D2), with some
pockets of Extreme Drought (D3) emerging over the northern NC
coastal plain. Precipitation deficits over the last 60 days
range from 3-6 inches, which will only increase in the upcoming
rain-free week. Growing vegetation and leaf out will only
increase the strain on ground water in the coming weeks.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Patchy fog has developed to the N and W of the area with PGV
showing shallow fog showing up as MVFR on obs. Have 1hr tempo
group here. VFR with mostly SKC. Light NEerly winds early veer
through the day to become SWerly overnight tonight. Of note is
some seafog and stratus working SW from 40mi off the VA coast
which could lead to reduced flight cats for NOBX terminals
through the period.


Outlook: Pred VFR conditions expected through the period with a
dry backdoor front working through the area late tomorrow with a more
summertime pattern taking shape in warming Serly flow regime in
its wake. No flight restrictions expected with tomorrow`s FROPA.

&&

.MARINE...
# --- Update --- #
Seafog seen on satellite working SW from ~40+nm off the VA
coast. Could reduce VIS to as low as 1mi over Nern waters should
it not burn off through the day

Previous discussion...
Small craft conditions continue across all the coastal waters
as seas remain at 6-8 feet across all offshore waters. NE winds
are steadily easing, now down to 10-15 kt with only infrequent
gusts to 25 kt. This will continue to trend downward through
today, with winds eventually becoming light and variable tonight
and then turning SW to W on Saturday ahead of an approaching
backdoor cold front. A brief jump of winds near 25 kt is
possible immediately behind this front late Saturday, but likely
less than 6 hours.

Seas will still take some time to subside, falling below 6 feet
first across Onslow Bay on Sat AM and then remaining offshore
waters on Sunday.

Outlook: Largely benign boating conditions expected next week,
although with a spring heatwave on the horizon strengthening
thermal gradient winds could near 25 kt at times during the
overnight hours and nudge seas near 6 feet.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ196-203-
     205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SGK/MS
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...SGK/MS