Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

368
FXUS62 KMHX 092314
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
714 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Forecast on track.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Patchy dense fog possible early tomorrow morning over the
northern coastal plain, especially Pitt and Martin counties.

2) Warming trend this weekend, followed by well above normal
conditions developing next week.

3) Worsening drought and fire weather conditions anticipated
over the next 7 days with no rainfall forecasted, and well
above normal temperatures expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...The axis of the ridge of high pressure will
settle over northern NC tonight, allowing for good radiational
cooling conditions. This will result in the potential for patchy
dense fog, with best chances for dense fog (1-2 miles) likely
along and north of US 264 in Pitt and Martin counties. Lighter
fog is possible south and east of here, but the key to all this
will be if and when winds calm early tomorrow morning to allow
for fog to form. Any fog that does form will be quick to burn
off tomorrow morning after sunrise.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Building low level thicknesses tomorrow through
the weekend will allow warming temps to near and slightly above
normal. By SUN afternoon, stout SFC high rotates off the Mid-
Atlantic coast, veering local winds more Eerly SUN and then
becoming Serly early next week allowing further warming; MaxTs
are forecast to reach the 90 deg mid to late next week.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Forecast continues to be dry for the
foreseeable future. Relaxing winds through the remainder of the
work-week should preclude any fire weather headlines, but the
precip-free and warming forecast will lead to the rapid drying
of fuels through the long term. This will lead to the potential
for fire weather concerns next week when stronger winds are
forecast.

Worsening drought conditions are possible by early next week as
soils continue to dry after a soaking rain last weekend. The
forecast area remains in a Severe Drought (D2), with some
pockets of Extreme Drought (D3) emerging over the northern NC
coastal plain. Precipitation deficits over the last 60 days
range from 3-6 inches, which will only increase in the upcoming
rain-free week. Growing vegetation and leaf out will only
increase the strain on ground water in the coming weeks.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue through late evening, with
potential for patchy dense fog to develop over the coastal
plain late tonight and Fri morning. Best fog chances along and
north of US 264 in closer proximity to the high pressure ridge
axis. KPGV will likely see at least some MVFR fog, with a higher
potential for IFR vsbys and cigs. Farther south and west,
including ISO and EWN could see MVFR conditions briefly before
sunrise. Closer to the coast, a light breeze should limit any
fog development. Fog will burn off quickly after sunrise, with
VFR conditions expected for the remainder of the day.

Outlook: Pred VFR conditions expected through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft conditions continue across all the coastal waters
and Pamlico Sound early this evening due to both hazardous seas
and strong NE winds. Winds will gradually subside tonight, but
SCAs will continue for seas through the weekend.

Latest obs show NE winds 15-25 kt and seas 5-9 ft. NE winds
continue tomorrow but will continue to weaken, and will be 10-15
kts in the morning, and 5-10 kts by late tomorrow afternoon.
Seas will be very slow to subside with persistent NE winds
continuing. Seas should come down to 6-8 ft by tomorrow
afternoon, but look to stay above 6 ft through much of the
weekend.

Outlook: Another ridge shifts across NECONUS over the weekend
once again leading NEerly winds SAT night and SUN, continuing to
veer to become S and then SWerly early next week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196-
     203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Sunday night for
     AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SGK/CEB
AVIATION...CQD
MARINE...SGK