Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

693
FXUS62 KMHX 041110
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
610 AM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Winter Wx Advisory has been issued for portions of the area,
with the potential for light snow and/or ice accumulations
tonight into Thursday morning.

SCAs issued for the coastal waters and sounds, with northerly
surge developing behind the front tonight and early Thu morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Travel will remain treacherous, especially on secondary
roads, through the next few days due to black ice and lingering
snow cover.

2) Light snow and/or ice accumulations expected for portions of
the area tonight into early Thu morning. The main concern is
light ice accretion for areas along and west of Hwy 17. Very
light snow or sleet accumulations possible across the northern
tier. A Winter Wx Advisory has been issued. Only minor impacts
expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Impacts from this past weekend`s winter storm
will continue through the next few days as black ice and
remaining snow pack will make travel hazardous, particularly
during overnight and morning hours when temperatures are
expected to be fall below freezing. Special Weather Statement
continues through this morning to highlight the potential for
black ice on the roads.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Models are in fairly good agreement on a low
pressure system moving across the northern Great Lakes and
Quebec and dragging a cold front through the Ohio Valley and
across the mid-Atlantic and the Carolinas by Thursday morning.
Radar shows light returns developing to the west early this
morning, though likely more virga right now given the dry air in
place. Given current sfc temps expect precip to remain mostly
light rain/drizzle though a brief wintry mix will be possible
before temps warm as weak boundary lifts through the area early
this morning. Mainly a cool rain expected today as light to
moderate rain will continue to overspread the area. Rainfall
totals 0.10-0.5" should hopefully aid in eroding the snowpack in
place across ENC. Below normal temps will continue today, with
highs generally 40-50 deg.

A cold front will push south through the area this evening and
tonight with waves of low pressure developing along it, while
strong shortwave approaches from the west. Expect precip to
gradually transition from rain to a wintry mix from north to
south tonight into Thursday morning (everywhere except the
Outer Banks, Mainland Dare and Downeast Carteret County where
temps will remain abv freezing). Model soundings depict
boundary layer temperatures falling the quickest while a warm
nose aloft hangs on for a few hours, resulting in a thermal
profile favorable for freezing rain for a few hours, with
potential for light snow/sleet as well (mainly across the
northern tier). By mid-morning on Thursday, precip will likely
be pushing off the coast. While some flurries can`t be ruled out
for most of the coastal plain, areas north of Highway 264 are
those most likely to see very light snow accum (light dusting
possible). A light glaze of ice is possible for much of the CWA
with a 30-40% chance of more than a tenth of an inch of ice
accretion roughly along Highway 17 (locally higher amounts
possible).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Pred VFR conditions continue through much of the early morning
as mid level clouds continue gradually lowering over ENC and
light rain is moving into the region ahead of an approaching
frontal system. MVFR ceilings have been trending slower for the
onset, so now expecting MVFR conditions to move in from the NW around
13-17Z for areas along/west of hwy 17, and 16-22Z for areas
east of hwy 17, not reaching Hatteras Island until closer to
00Z. Have reflected this slower trend in the 12Z TAFs. IFR
ceilings have also trended a bit later as a result, and will
continue through tonight. Rain over the snow pack could also
aid in producing fog with lower vsbys through the day today.
Winds expected to generally be light SW 5-10kt through this
morning, then a slow moving front will push south across the
area during the afternoon with wind becoming Nly behind the
front. A moderate LLJ expected to bring LLWS concerns early this
morning. Early thursday morning freezing light rain and snow
chances pick up behind the front, and have now added FZRA
mentions in all TAFs. Kept SN of TAFs from now given lesser
probs during the TAF period compared to FZRA, but may need to be
added in future updates. Icing amounts are expected to be at or
less than 0.10" through the event, and will be focused in the
area currently under a Winter Weather Advisory.

Outlook: Predominantly VFR conditions return late Thursday and
expected to persist through the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs show S-SW winds 5-15 kt across the northern portions
of the waters, and 10-20 kt across the southern and central
waters. Brief period of gusty winds will be possible through mid
morning across the outer central and southern waters with
occasional gusts to 25 kt with sea 3-5 ft. A cold front will
push through the waters from north to south this evening into
early Thu morning. Moderate to strong northerly surge will
develop behind the front 15-25 kt with seas responding and
building to 4-6 ft, peaking at 5-9 ft Thu and Thu evening. Occ
gale force gusts possible Thu afternoon and eve.

Outlook: Conditions will slowly improve through the day Friday.
This will be short lived though, with winds increasing Fri
night and into the weekend. Strong SCA conditions likely to
develop, with potential for Gale Force winds Sat and Sat night.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Thursday for NCZ029-044-045-079-080-090-091.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Thursday for
     NCZ046-081-092-094-193>195-198-199.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM EST Thursday for AMZ131-
     230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Thursday to 1 AM EST Friday for
     AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Thursday to 6 AM EST Friday for
     AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Thursday to 2 PM EST Friday for
     AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Thursday to 6 AM EST Friday for
     AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CQD
AVIATION...RCF/RJ
MARINE...CQD