Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

976
FXUS62 KMHX 040143
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
943 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Heat advisory  remains in effect for interior zones as well as
the northern OBX for Friday.

Pops and thunder chances have been increased for both Friday
evening for nrn zones, and the rest of ENC for Saturday.

Aviation Discussion has been updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dangerous, potentially record-breaking heat to impact the
area through Saturday.

2) Several impulses ahead of a cold front bring rounds of
potential severe thunderstorms both late Friday, and again for
Saturday.

3) Return to more seasonable September temps for the beginning
of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Anomalously warm low-level thicknesses and
dewpoints beneath strong ridging aloft will continue to keep
temperatures well above normal with potential record breaking
heat continuing through Saturday, with heat index values
peaking at 105-110 deg Friday for inland and nrn OBX zones, and
possibly again for srn zones on Saturday.

Friday continues to have the strongest signal for the peak of
this week`s heat wave, with highs ranging 95-100 for the
interior coastal plain, with low 90s coast. Thermal gradient
should be strong enough to allow for fast seabreeze progression
and thus preclude heat indices reaching 105 for immediate coast
outside nrn OBX, with HREF probs indicating this as well, but
the combo of hot temps well above 90 inland coupled with TD`s
well into the 70s bring heat indices 105+ once again inland.
Some locales may once again flirt with vals above 110 again, but
not long enough or widespread for issuance of heat warnings.
HREF probs remain below 20%.

Saturday a cold front will begin sinking in, but at the same
time TD vals inc with moisture gradient tightening ahead of it,
and with temps fcst to reach into the mid to possibly upper 90s
in swrn zones, another day of heat indices 105-110 degrees is
possible before expected numerous showers and storms ends the
heat later in the day. Best chances to reach criteria are
generally along and s of Hwy 70.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong upper level trough will develop off
the U.S. East Coast over the weekend, and this will help drive a
strong cold front south through the Carolinas on Saturday.
Strong heating of a moist boundary layer ahead of the front
should allow strong instability to develop from the Mid-
Atlantic south into North Carolina on Friday. While some
residual subsidence/capping may be present beneath the ridge,
especially across NC, guidance show a decent signal for
convection developing upstream of ENC, and making a run towards
the nrn zones as early as late afternoon, but esp through the
evening hours. If convection can arrive early enough, severe
potential is there, esp north of Hwy 70 and best chances north
of Hwy 264. CAMs have generally inc in covg here, and thus
raised pops and thunder chances to likely after 22Z. Instability
is above the climo max for the first week of September, and
deep layer shear above 25 kt.

On Saturday, the ridge will continue to get suppressed further
south and west with less influence across the Carolinas. This
plus increased forcing along the cold front should support an
improved risk of deep convection, and less limiting factors,
compared to Friday. PW`s/TD`s inc further and with lowering hts
aloft, instability will be very strong. In fact, vals will be
well above the avg max for first week of September according to
the KMHX sounding climatology, with ML CAPE vals advertised by
the 03/12Z RRFS/ECM/NAM3k reaching or exceeding 4,000 J/KG! If
convective timing aligns with fropa/shortwave passage in the
afternoon, a significant severe weather signal may be met as
this aligns with deep layer shear of 35-45kt. CSU severe probs
for damaging wind have increased to over 30% for parts of ENC
and may suggest a higher risk than the current Day 3 `slight`
risk from SPC if aforementioned parameters are met together.

In addition to the severe threat, will have to watch for
potential ff threat, as PW`s surge to 2.25" or higher, and with
the expected numerous convection, very heavy rain rates are
possible with deeper convection and lend to instances of flash
flooding.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Behind the front, temperatures and humidity
will finally get knocked down closer to normal for early
September, with more comfortable conditions lasting into early
next week. Still some residual moisture lingering on Sunday and
may see some sct showers, but overall trend is for drier esp as
we begin the work week with pops less than 20% lasting through
mid week. Highs in the mid 80s with lows in the 60s is fcst and
is where our temps should be for the first half of September.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
No real change to the aviation forecast as primarily VFR
conditions are expected across ENC through much of the period.
Any storms this evening should remain north and west of all TAF
sites. The biggest challenge tonight will be where patchy fog or
low stratus may develop especially along the Crystal Coast.
Guidance is fairly muted on this threat, but the NAM/GLAMP show
at least a low end threat for some low stratus and with the
CONSHORT AND HREF showing low end probs for patchy fog/low
stratus as well, kept the TEMPO group of 5SM vis and BKN003
ceilings at OAJ between 08-12Z and added a TEMPO group at EWN to
account for the threat. Probs are too low to the north and west
so have kept a VFR TAF at ISO/PGV tonight. Light swrly winds
again expected on Friday. Any patchy fog/low stratus quickly
dissipates by about 13Z with VFR conditions then returning to
all of ENC through Fri evening. Afterwards potential for
showers/tstms bringing sub VFR conditions begin to increase
across our far northern zones, especially after 21-00Z. Still a
touch to early to add in any mention of tstms at the TAF sites
but one could be included in future updates depending on trends.
Greatest risk would be to PGV/ISO terminals.

NOTE: AMD NOT SKED has been appended to the EWN TAFs as the
site is not transmitting through normal channels. The site is
still reporting via telephone so it will be monitored, but not
as frequently as when it is completely operational. The next
closest ASOS is at Cherry Point (KNKT).

Outlook (Fri night through Tue): Chance of TSRA Fri evening for
mainly KPGV as some storms from VA make a run into nrn parts of
ENC. Better chances for widespread showers and storms on Sat as
cold front drops through the area. Sub-VFR conditions will be
possible with any TSRA during this time. Behind the front, a
northeasterly wind shift will occur, with northeasterly flow
continuing into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs show S-SW winds 5-15 kt with seas 2-3 ft. SE long-
period swell (2-3ft at 10-11s) from the remnants of "Dolly" will
continue to diminish across the waters today. Stronger thermal
gradient develops with some gusts aoa 20 kt this evening. Yet
stronger winds expected later Fri afternoon into evening with
several hours of 25+ kt winds possible esp for eastern
sounds/Alligator river and nearshore ctrl waters. Will hold off
on any SCA headlines attm however due to uncertainty. Strong to
severe thunderstorms could affect nrn sounds and waters late Fri
afternoon and esp evening as storms move south into the region
from VA. Strong wind gusts are the main threat with these
storms.

Outlook (Sat through Tue): More widespread storms could affect
the remainder of the ENC waters Saturday as a cold front moves
through. The front will bring winds around to the NE for Sun
into early next week with seas building to 4-6 ft for the
nearshore waters north of Ocracoke. Winds and seas will begin to
ease Tuesday as high pressure builds in.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures for 09/04 (Friday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern         98/1944  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    92/2020  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville       98/1930  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    93/1959  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston          98/1983  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     96/2020  (NCA ASOS)

Record High Temperatures for 09/05 (Saturday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern         96/2023  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    91/1983  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville       99/1921  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    91/2020  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         100/1983  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     96/1983  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for NCZ029-044>047-
     079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198-203.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CQD/TL
AVIATION...CQD/TL/RCF
MARINE...CQD/TL