Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

964
FXUS62 KMHX 020747
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
247 AM EST Fri Jan 2 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front currently situated just south of the area will
lift back north as a warm front today before again shifting
southward Friday night as a cold front. An area of low pressure
will develop along the front Saturday before pushing farther
offshore on Sunday. High pressure then builds back in by early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 2 AM Friday...

Current observations and analysis depict a cold front stalled
just south of ENC. This front will gradually shift back
northward through Friday morning amidst developing
southwesterly, warm air advection across the region. Coupled
with westerly downslope flow, this will yield warmer highs today
compared to yesterday, with temperatures forecast to push into
the low-60s across much of ENC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 215 AM Friday...

A shortwave moving off the Mid-Atlantic Coast later tonight
should then push the above-mentioned warm front back southward
through ENC as a cold front Friday night. Concurrently, a second
shortwave will traverse eastward across the Southern Plains and
Southeastern US, with an attendant, weak surface low also
tracking eastward. Increasing low-to-mid level frontogenesis is
expected to develop in advance of the approaching shortwave and
an associated area of low pressure. This combined with
increasing mid-level moisture along the frontal zone may lead to
light rain developing prior to sunrise Saturday morning. Current
guidance suggests that at least some low-level dry air will
remain entrenched across the region through Friday night,
however. Coupled with the timing of better forcing and moisture
expected later Saturday, this will likely result in any
precipitation that does develop late tonight remaining on the
light side until later Saturday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 AM Friday...

Key Messages...

 - A coastal low will likely bring rain to much of ENC this
   weekend

Saturday...The aforementioned shortwave will swing eastward
across the Southeast on Saturday, with a weak surface low
forecast to strengthen along the stalled frontal boundary
along/just south of the Crystal Coast into Saturday night
before pushing farther offshore Sunday. Warm air advection and
an increase in low-to-mid level frontogenesis will combine to
yield better forcing for ascent across ENC during the day on
Saturday, with the best chances of rain currently forecast
Saturday afternoon through the early overnight hours. 00Z
guidance has trended slightly southward with the location of
this low, but rainfall amounts are still forecast to be
generally a quarter to three quarters of an inch; although, the
amounts will be dependent on the final track of the low (closer
to or farther from shore). Temps are forecast to remain
seasonable (highs in the 50s) ahead on Saturday.

Sunday/Monday...Rain chances drop off early Sunday morning as
the low pulls offshore. High pressure building into the region
will bring clearing skies and slightly cooler temps, with highs
near 50 Sunday/Monday.

Tuesday/Wednesday...High pressure shifts offshore early-to-mid
next week. In response, winds swing to southwesterly, which will
allow temps to climb well into the 60s Tuesday and Wednesday. A
weak cold front may then approach the region on Thursday ahead
of the next potential chances for rain late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1 AM Friday...Pred VFR conditions expected through the TAF
period.

Clear skies and light/calm winds is allowing for good radiational
cooling conditions early this morning and many sites are at or
near saturation. However, temps are expected to remain 7-10
degrees above crossover temps this morning leading to only very
low chances for fog this morning. Latest HREF probs are less
than 10% across the area while REFS has a bit higher at around
30-50% across the Albemarle-Pamlico Peninsula but less than 10%
elsewhere, including all TAF sites. If fog does develop, expect
it will be shallow with limited impacts to aviation.

A low pressure system will approach the area tonight and will
see increasing high clouds gradually lowering through the
overnight but remaining VFR through early Saturday.

Winds through the TAF period will generally be light, mainly
less than 10 kt from the SW to W today, then becoming NE late
tonight behind a dry front pushing south across rtes.

Outlook: A low pressure system will track along the coast late
Saturday and Saturday night bringing widespread rain with sub-
VFR conditions beginning Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.
Precip moves offshore late Saturday night but guidance showing
low clouds persisting through Sunday morning. High pressure
builds into the region early next week with pred VFR conditions
returning.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 AM Friday...

Key Messages...

 - Occasional gusts to 25 knots possible along the Gulf Stream
   this morning

 - Low pressure traversing along the coastline Saturday/Sunday
   will bring another round of elevated winds and seas

Current observations show generally light southwesterly winds
across area waters with a few gusts to 20 kts observed across
the edge of the Gulf Stream. A warm front is beginning to lift
back northward through the region, with breezy south to
southwesterly flow expected to develop behind this boundary.
High-res guidance depicts a brief wind this morning where
occasional gusts to 25 kts will be possible over the warmer
central and southern coastal waters. Have opted to hold off on
issuing any SCAs for now as any period of SCA gusts is expected
to remain rather brief this morning, but the potential for SCA
conditions will continue to be monitored. Seas will be generally
3-5 ft today with a few 6 footers possible across the outer
central waters.

The warm front then dips back south through the area Friday
night, with an associated northerly wind shift. Weak low
pressure will then work eastward across the Southeastern US
before strengthening along/just south of the ENC coastline
Saturday into Saturday night before pulling offshore Sunday.
Expecting elevated northeasterly winds and seas along with rain
across area waters, with SCA conditions likely developing
Saturday evening. As the low strengthens while pulling farther
offshore, there is a chance for Gale conditions to develop
across the coastal waters, mainly between Capes Lookout and
Hatteras Saturday night. This potential will continue to be
monitored.

High pressure then builds back in late Sunday as winds shift to
northwesterly and conditions begin to improve. Winds will then
gradually shift to southwesterly Monday night into Tuesday as
high pressure shifts offshore.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...ZC
SHORT TERM...ZC
LONG TERM...ZC
AVIATION...SK
MARINE...ZC