Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

900
FXUS62 KMHX 051743
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
143 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes through the period.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Precip chances wane this afternoon.

2) Return to a more typical summertime pattern Thursday onwards.
However, the heat returns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Last day of above average precipitation chances as a
stalled upper trough that had brought multiple days of heavy rain
and thunderstorm activity to the area finally shifts north and gets
absorbed by an incoming upper level trough moving through the Great
Lakes region. At the same time, mid level shortwave energy shifts to
the north and west as well. On top of this, for the rest of the
afternoon, surface boundary to the north and west of the area
continues to gradually dissipate while S`rly flow keeps PWATs around
the 2-2.5" range today. Any leftover upper level forcing combined
with the daily seabreeze should be enough to kick start additional
rounds of isolated showers and weak thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening with heavy to torrential rainfall
possible. While storm motions should be progressive, storms will
be capable of dropping a quick 1-2", resulting in minor
flooding concerns. After we lose daytime heating, rain chances
go down drastically. Highs today have gotten into the mid 80s
with lows tonight forecast to be in the 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A more zonal pattern aloft sets up as upper troughs
and mid level shortwaves generally remain to the north of the
Carolinas. This will result in a return to more avg to below avg
rain chances across ENC from Thur on into next week as main forcing
will be from the daily seabreeze. While chances will certainly be
lower ample instability will build across the region given the
partly cloudy skies and moist environment so wouldn`t be shocked at a
daily 20-30% chance of shower or thunderstorm activity from Thurs
onwards along he inland moving seabreeze each afternoon. Given the
lower precip chances the main story from Thurs onwards will be the
return of the heat with highs getting into the upper 80s to low 90s
each day into next week. COmbined with dewpoints generally in the
70s each day will bring heat indices between 95-105F each day. While
below heat headline criteria this will make it feel uncomfortably
hot over the next few days. Not much relief overnight as lows get
into the 70s each night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Primarily VFR conditions are noted across ENC outside of any ongoing
shower/tstm activity where a mix of MVFR vis/ceilings are
currently seen. This will continue into the evening before
shower and tstm chances end. Have kept the persistence forecast
going at TAF sites with PROB30 groups this afternoon. As we get
into tonight, guidance once again suggests we have the potential
for periods of low stratus and patchy fog after 06Z Thurs
across much of ENC with NBM/HREF probs of ceilings below 3 kft
at about 20-40%. However, will note, guidance has been
pessimistic these last few nights and despite the ample low
level moisture most areas have remained VFR outside of
shower/tstm activity. Given this, have kept all sites VFR
through Thursday afternoon with just a FEW/SCT deck of MVFR
ceilings tonight at all TAF sites between 09-12Z Thurs. Winds
remain light and S`rly through the period.

Outlook (Thursday night through Monday): Primarily VFR conditions
and light winds are forecast into early next week as high pressure
builds into the area. Given ample low level moisture there is a low
end chance for patchy ground fog to develop each morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside of ongoing shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon,
benign boating conditions are noted with S`rly winds at 10-15 kts
across all waters and 2-4 ft seas across the coastal waters.
Conditions wont change much over the next few days as a Bermuda high
nudges in from the east resulting in lower precip chances across our
waters from Thurs into early next week and steady S-SW`rly winds at
5-15 kts with 2-4 ft seas. Will note there is a low end chance for a
thermal trough to set up starting Fri and going through the weekend
as inland areas heat up. This could result in brief periods of near
SCA conditions across the Pamlico, Croatan/Roanoke Sounds and
coastal waters north of Cape Hatteras at times each afternoon and
evening.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-199.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RCF
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...RCF