Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

206
FXUS62 KMHX 110018
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
818 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Hrly Ts adjusted due to cooling from rain. Aviation Disco
updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Summertime pattern continues over the next several days with
daily chances for shower and thunderstorm activity. An extended
period of hot temperatures are also expected this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered thunderstorm coverage is observed over
eastern NC in a very unstable, very moist environment. A weak
shortwave sitting over the region and deep shear of 20-30 knots
is providing enough forcing and maintenance out along and ahead
of the sea breeze for a risk of deep cores in thunderstorms.
This brings a risk of locally heavy rainfall, frequent
lightning, and gusty winds with the strongest of storms. Threat
of storms quickly wanes with a loss of daytime heating late this
evening.

Heat will be the name of the game over the next few days as the
Bermuda high centered off the coast will slide S`wards towards
the Gulf Coast States while a thermal trough remains over the
Piedmont. This will keep low level flow generally SW to W over
the next several days. As a result, some weak WAA will allow low
level thicknesses to increase closer to 1430m. Based off the
offices climatological study this is forecast to result in highs
in the low to mid 90s across the inland areas and upper 80s to
low 90s along the OBX and coast through much of the week before
a front impacts the region resulting in cooler temperatures late
week into the weekend.

Heat indices are peaking around 100-105 this afternoon, but are
expected to climb to around 105-110 Tue through Thurs, and
potentially lingering into Fri with heat headlines probably for
much of the area. In fact, have issued a Heat Advisory for
southern portions of the CWA with the afternoon update. Areas
north could get there, but uncertainty is higher as MCS
currently moving through the Ohio Valley may bring more cloud
cover and lower Tds with any remnant outflows that move into the
region. Lows will be in the 70s which won`t provide much relief
from the heat in the coming days. We encourage anyone planning
on spending alot of time outdoors this week to take proper
precautions and stay hydrated.

Otherwise, a typical summer time pattern will be in place
through much the week. Near zonal flow aloft with a series of
shortwave troughs pushing across the area will result climo
precip chances for the next several days with best chances
through peak heating and seabreeze related for the most part but
will also depend on timing and exact location of individual
shortwave troughs. The severe threat appears minimal for the
next couple of days with limited shear, though somewhat better
shear develops toward the middle of the week. We do look to have
increased precipitation chances closer to Fri and into next
weekend with the approach of an incoming cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AMD NOT SKED has been added to EWN again. Obs briefly came back
today but have disappeared again this afternoon after a tstorm
rolled through. Have no knowledge at this time of cause of the
issue and do not want to speculate. TAFs will continue to be
issued while the issue is troubleshooted. NKT is the closest
ASOS. EWN is able to be dialed into to receive METARs, last
checked at 2354Z.

Fog and low stratus concerns are low tonight with winds
expected to remain elevated enough. However, in a worst case
scenario, spots that saw enhanced rainfall totals today could
be at risk of seeing some low stratus or very shallow, non-
impactful ground fog with higher near surface moisture to play
with. The almost always pessimistic NAM shows IFR or lower
stratus across the coastal plain in the early morning hours.
Conceptual model says there is certainly a possibility, but
lack of guidance solutions that show this keep probs low, but
worth mentioning the potential here and in TAFs. Because of
this, I have included FEW IFR cloud groups for ISO/PGV and FEW
MVFR cloud groups for coastal terminals in the early morning
hours.

Outlook (Tuesday through Friday): Primarily VFR conditions and
light winds are expected into mid week as high pressure builds
into the area. Given ample low level moisture, there is a low
end chance for patchy ground fog to develop each morning.
Isolated to scattered convection will be possible each day that
could bring brief periods of sub- VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
A typical summertime pattern across the waters with S-SW winds
around 5-15 kt during the morning hours, increasing to around
10-20 kt during the afternoon and evening each day this week as
temps warm inland bringing a tightening of gradients between the
thermal trough inland and the offshore high. Gusts may approach
SCA conditions across the Pamlico, Croatan/Roanoke Sounds and
coastal waters north of Cape Hatteras at times but currently not
anticipating any SCA headlines for any waters given the short
and infrequent nature of any stronger gusts. Seas will remain
around 2-4 ft into the end of the week as well.

A series of shortwave troughs will push across the coastal waters
through the week continuing to bring periods if showers and
thunderstorms, most prevalent being nocturnal driven over the
Gulf Stream waters.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ090-092-
     094-194>196-198-199.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SK/RJ
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...SK/RJ