Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

373
FXUS62 KMHX 041830
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
230 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Lowered min temps for the coolest nights mid week.

Lowered dewpoints/RH with the dry air mass building in early to
mid week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cool and dry high pressure finally brings a return to
seasonable fall conditions to ENC early through mid week.

2) Moderating conditions brings a warming trend back to the
region later this week and into the weekend, along with next
chance for rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...After the second day in a row that the KMHX
sounding broke a record high PW, some lingering coastal showers
tonight will be shunted off the coast by early Monday as cool
front pushes through. In the wake of the front, a reinforcing
front from the north brings breezy nerly winds that usher in dry
and seasonably cool weather. Mo cloudy to ovc skies on Mon will
keep temps on the cooler side, with highs in the low/mid 70s
despite dry weather ensuing. The reinforcing front Mon night
will bring a much drier airmass in and clearing skies, and as
high pres builds Tue into Wed, very pleasant mild and dry days
with highs near climo in the 75-80 range (low 70s OBX), but
cooler than normal lows well down into the 50s for the mainland,
and perhaps a few 40s for the normally cooler sheltered locales
as strong radiational cooling is maximized Wed morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Atms moderates Thu into the weekend as zonal
flow ensues, and this will bring a warming trend back to ENC,
WIth several days of warming, eventually upper level flow
becomes swrly, and a return of Gulf moisture on tap by Fri or
the beginning of the weekend. Timing in synoptic features
becomes less certain this far out, so introduced only chc pops
attm for the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Most TAF sites to remain IFR throughout the day, as sfc boundary
is confined to the coast, and only KMRH scattering out to MVFR
or higher. Any improvement will not be long lived with CIGs
lowering again overnight to likely LIFR or lower as weak
subsidence inversion builds with plentiful low level moisture
lingering. Think the chance for dense fog is low however, and
will be mainly driven by very low cigs 200-300 ft and 2-4sm BR.
Cigs gradually lift through the late morning Mon, though may
take till afternoon to finally lift to MVFR.

Outlook (Mon night through Fri): Winds will become
northeasterly behind a reinforcing front Mon night, surge
peaking TUE morning, though this will also usher in dry air and
hence a return to mainly VFR conditions, both day and night with
lowered dewpoints.

&&

.MARINE...
Wind fcst cont to trend down, though enough of a signal for SCA
winds/seas south of Oregon Inlet, so have issued a SCA for these
zones where probs for SCA conditions are greatest. Winds more
marginal for Pamlico sound and nrn waters, so have left out of
headlines, with just ocnl gusts to 25 kt poss. Seas of 2-4 ft
cont through Mon, then build to 5-7 ft south of OR Inlet Mon
evening, eventually subsiding back below 6 ft by late Tue
afternoon.

Outlook: Northeasterly flow of 10-15kt expected mid week as high
pres will be anchored to the north, and winds/seas remain below
SCA thresholds.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Monday to 2 PM EDT Tuesday for
     AMZ152-154-156.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Monday to 5 PM EDT Tuesday for
     AMZ158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TL/CEB
AVIATION...TL
MARINE...TL/CEB