Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

542
FXUS62 KMHX 211830
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
230 PM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Have reintroduced small craft advisories for the
coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet starting Sunday night. Have
also added SChc of showers into the SW`rn zones this evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Isolated showers possible tonight as a weak shortwave moves just
to the south of the area

2) Well above normal to near record high temperatures will be
possible on Sunday

3) Strong cold front expected Monday with scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms possible (30%). Rain amounts appear
minimal.

Marine: SCA to low end Gale potential Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1... A subtle upper level trough and associated
weak shortwave will track SE`wards from the Ohio RIver Valley
and just to the south of ENC across SC and GA tonight. At the
same time, low level moisture is advected in from the south and
west as PWATs increase from 0.85 inches which was noted on this
mornings sounding to ~1 inch tonight. While there will still
likely be some dry air aloft, steepening lapse rates especially
along our SW`rn zones, and elevated forcing from the incoming
shortwave could result in some isolated showers and maybe a
rumble of thunder or two. Hi-Res guidance such as the HRRR, FV3,
AND WRF ARW do pick up on this low end chance and given at
least some semblance of consistency with this signal, have
included SChc PoPs in our SW`rn zones mainly after about 9/10PM.
Otherwise lows remain rather warm tonight with lows in the 50s
given scattered cloudcover and weak warm air advection.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Temperatures likely peak on Sunday across ENC with
near record to potentially record high temperatures. Upper level
that had been overhead in previous days finally pushes offshore
and low level E to NE`rly flow from Sat becomes SW`rly allowing
for warm air advection to begin in earnest. This will also
allow for above normal low level thicknesses across the region
for the time of year and therefore very warm temperatures on
Sunday. Dry conditions expected with temps reaching well into
the 80s across our interior zones and 70s along the coast. Once
again, did manually bring up temps for NOBX Sunday with SW flow
bringing a warmer continental airmass over the NOBX area so
relied more on MOS guidance as compared to the NBM as the NBM
typically under does these regimes. This results in mid-upper
70s across the NOBX. Some inland locales could exceed their
record temps for the day so a CLIMATE section has been kept in
place for Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 3... An upper level trough dives south from the central
Canadian Provinces and into the Ohio River Valley and Northeast,
extending as far south as the Mid-Atlantic on Mon and into Tue. Its
associated mid level shortwave rounds the base of this trough at the
same time. At the surface this brings a backdoor cold front quickly
through the area on Mon. Moisture remains lacking with this front,
but still have a chance to see some isolated to widely scattered
showers as the front moves through Mon morning/Mon afternoon so kept
the 20-40% chance of showers in the forecast. While instability is
rather low it is not zero as the front moves through keeping a low
end thunder threat in place. Right now with much of the guidance
bringing a slightly earlier frontal passage, thus limiting
instability think there is currently a less than 20% chance at
seeing thunderstorms with the frontal passage. So once again
kept thunderstorms out of the forecast for now. The main
sensible weather with this front will be a rapid increase of
northerly winds behind it with temps dropping through the
afternoon and into evening. If this front were to blow through
in the morning, we would have had some fire weather concerns
with stronger winds and drier air moving in, but an afternoon
progression prevents any fire issues outside of the wind switch.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions are present this afternoon and are expected to
continue through the TAF period with mostly mid and high levels
clouds around.

Skies are mostly clear this afternoon as a trough moves through
the Carolinas. A few isolated showers or thunderstorms are
possible as this trough swings through late this evening, but
this activity should mostly be west of the TAF sites, with KOAJ
and KISO having the best, albeit slim chance. High pressure
builds in from the south overnight and through tomorrow with dry
and mostly sunny conditions expected.

Outlook: The next chance of sub-VFR conditions comes Monday as
yet another cold front moves through. A TSRA risk may accompany
this front as well. Gusty north to northeast winds (20-25kt)
are expected with this front as well.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure centered to the south in the Gulf will move
little, while a weak low pressure system well to the north in
the Great Lakes gradually tracks E`wards tonight into the
Northeast. At the same time, previously mentioned cold front
continues to slowly drop south and will eventually stall and
dissipate over the area tonight. This has resulted in widespread
light winds, generally 5-10 kts varying in direction from south
to north with the southern waters seeing SW`rly winds still,
while across the northern waters NE`rly winds are noted. Winds
are forecast to become light and variable tonight before
becoming S`rly across all waters on Sunday at 5-15 kts. Seas
will lower to 2-4 ft during this timeframe. Then as we get into
Sunday night the pressure gradient will tighten with the
approach of a cold front increasing SW`rly winds to 15-20 kts
with gusts up to 25-30kts along the Gulf Stream, and 4-7 ft
seas. This will bring a return of the small craft advisories to
our coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet where the warmer Gulf
Stream Waters are.

Outlook: On Monday, SW winds increase further to 15-25 kts,
with some 30+ kt winds possible on the Gulf Stream waters, ahead
of approaching cold front. Front passes through Mon afternoon
with stout 25-35 kt northerly winds developing in its wake
through Mon night into Tue, with seas rapidly building to 6-9
ft behind the front later Monday. Gale force gusts not out of
the question, particularly on the Gulf waters. By Tuesday
evening conditions ease and more benign boating conditions are
forecast by midweek as high pressure ridging builds in from the
north and west.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for 03/22 (Sunday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern         89/1948  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    75/2011  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville     87/1936  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City  82/2011  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston        95/1907  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville  86/2011  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for
     AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RCF/RJ
AVIATION...SGK
MARINE...RCF/RJ