Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

020
FXUS62 KMHX 170009
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
709 PM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 2 PM Fri...

Removed any light snow accums over the wrn counties
Sunday/Sunday evening, as now expecting mostly a cold rain for
the duration of the event.

Lowered max temps Sunday as an all day rain with low clouds and
nwrly breezes keep temps only in the low/mid 40s for most of us.

Another Arctic blast expected early through mid next week with
lows/winds chills in the teens to lower 20s.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 2 PM Fri...

1) Cold rain expected Sunday into early Sunday eve. Some
inconsequential wet flakes may mix in across the west before
ending Sunday evening but no accums or impacts.

2) Another Arctic blast expected early through mid next week
with lows and wind chills in the teens Monday through Wednesday
mornings. Wednesday morning the coldest with arctic high
pressure overhead and lows in the teens all areas away from the
beachfront.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 2 PM Fri...

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A deep upper trough will dig down to the GOM, though
thicknesses/hts are favoring mainly rain for ENC, albeit a cold
and miserable rain, as any mixed precip or snow remains to the
west and southwest of ENC through the duration of the event. As
this trough pivots eastward Sunday, a weak surface low is
expected to form along a boundary off the SE coast, and deepen
as it moves offshore Sunday into Sunday night. The last
remaining cold and snowy outlier GFS has caught up with the rest
of the guidance (EC/UKMET/ICON) in forecasting mainly rain for
the bulk of the event. It should be noted however, that even the
ECM has a handful of it`s 51 members that still bring
accumulating snow to parts of ENC, though the chances of any
accums based on the ensemble mean have trended down to 20-30%.
Even so, with a warmer ground on top of the daytime highs in the
60s tomorrow, the chance of snow accumulating are quite slim. The
much needed rain will start early Sun morning, then rapidly inc
in coverage acrs ENC through the morning and into the afternoon
as deep isentropic ascent in place. ENC remains on the cool
side of the boundary so a cold widespread light to moderate rain
event with amts in the 0.25-0.50" expected, which won`t do much
to the severe drought now in place across the region. Temps
don`t budge much and remain in the low/mid 40s for most of us
all day.

By Sun evening, colder air finally begins to ooze into ENC as
column cools to wet bulbs nearing 0C. However, a typical cold
air chasing moisture scenario in place as rapid drying taking
place as the column cools. Still can`t rule out a few
inconsequential wet flakes mixing in with the rain acrs nwrn
zones, but certainly no impacts expected, esp on top of the warm
temps that are in place tomorrow. Something that may bear
watching is the development of black ice through the overnight
into the Mon AM commute time however, if any remaining water
remains on the roads and freezes as temps drop through the 20s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Another Arctic blast is expected behind the front, leading to
well below normal conditions Monday through Wednesday. Low temps
will reach the upper teens to low 20s, and when factoring in
wind chills it will feel like the teens each morning. Tuesday
morning looks to be the breeziest coupled with lows around 20,
and best chance at reaching apparent T`s around 15 or lower.
Wednesday morning the coldest of the period as arctic high pres
settles overhead, and excellent rad cooling all the way to the
coast and lows well down into the teens.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 710 PM Fri...No sub-VFR conditions expected over TAF
terminals over the next 24 hours. Southwesterly winds will ease
tonight as high pressure continues to shift offshore tonight,
but despite decoupling airmass will be far too dry to support
any fog formation. The gradient aloft will begin to pinch,
however, which could bring a risk for some LLWS to some
terminals tonight, primarily PGV and ISO. Confidence is too low
to include in TAFs this cycle.

A developing coastal trough could bring some increasing low-to-
mid level clouds along portions of the OBX and southern coast
tonight. Low chances (10-30%) for an isolated shower or two to
clip the OBX Saturday morning. Guidance is in good agreement
that any ceilings and showers will stay well east of TAF sites.
SW winds will again increase to around 10 kts with gusts to 20
kts across inland areas tomorrow, with increasing high clouds
expected through the day as the aforementioned cold front pushes
closer. Some lower cigs will likely bleed into the coastal
plaina after 18z.

Outlook: A weak low pressure system and cold front couple to
produce rain Sunday into Sunday evening, with the potential for
some snowflakes to mix in briefly Sunday evening, especially
for ISO/PGV. Sub-VFR conditions will be possible with this
system, but confidence is increasing that snow will not result
in any impacts. Dry high pressure returns Monday/Tuesday,
bringing a return to VFR conditions across all of ENC.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 2 PM Fri...

Tonight through Saturday...SCA conditions will return to the
Gulf waters overnight as inc swrly gradient brings good mixing
to the warmer waters. Remaining nrn waters and sounds too cold
to realize the stronger wind gusts and will remain in the 10-15
kt gusting 20 kt range tonight through Sat. A period of choppy 6
ft seas are likely tonight into Sat over the Gulf Stream
waters.

Sunday through Sunday night...Winds turn nwrly but appear to
remain sub SCA for the bulk of the marine areas. Some gusts to
25+ kt possible esp over the warmer waters south of Oregon Inlet
with better mixing.

Monday through Wednesday...Arctic high pres builds over the
waters with lighter winds of 5-15 kt expected and lowered seas
of 2-4 ft or so.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST Saturday for AMZ152-154-
     156.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TL
AVIATION...MS/ZC
MARINE...TL