Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

923
FXUS62 KMHX 131132
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
732 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Small Craft Advisories in effect for the Pamlico Sound and coastal
waters between Oregon Inlet and Cape Lookout

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A strong cold front on Monday evening poses a risk of severe
weather.

Marine...Winds and seas improve through today before a brief period
of Small Craft Advisory conditions returns this evening/tonight

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...An impressive upper level trough will dig across
the Plains on Sunday and will become more negatively tilted as
it moves east across the Mississippi River Valley on Monday.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase through
Sunday and into Monday. A pre-frontal surface trough will
develop through the day on Sunday, bringing increased chances
for showers and thunderstorms and backing low level winds.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue to increase
through Monday and peak with the FROPA Monday night. This front
will produce a strongly forced line of convection, and with
ample deep layer shear and 0-3 km SRH at play, there`s
potential for damaging wind gusts and a few brief isolated
tornadoes. Destabilization could be significantly inhibited due
to cloud cover, showers, and thunderstorms associated with the
pre- frontal surface trough, but even meager instability could
still produce strong to severe thunderstorms with the FROPA. So,
this will be a highly conditional high shear/low CAPE scenario.
SPC has all of Eastern North Carolina outlined in a 15% chance
for severe weather, and the NSSL ML Total Severe Probability
guidance shows a 15-30% chance.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Areas of fog has expanded across much of ENC this morning, most
concentrated near rivers and creeks with a cold air over warmer
waters. With temperatures at or just below freezing, may see
minor freezing fog on elevated surfaces. The fog will dissipate
fairly quickly this morning with conditions quickly improving
between 9-10 am. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail
through the rest of the TAF period under mainly clear skies.

High pressure slides offshore today allowing winds to veer through
the morning hours, becoming southerly this afternoon and SSW by
evening. Gradients tighten a bit this afternoon with a system
passing across the northern Mid-Atlantic states and could see gusts
around 20-25 kt.

Outlook...Pred VFR conditions expected through Saturday. The next
frontal system is expected to impact ENC Sunday through Monday
bringing periods of sub-VFR conditions in showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions have significantly improved over the past few hours
as high pressure builds in. Conditions will remain sub-SCA
through most of today as the winds veer from NE to SW. Once they
return to the SW this evening, a brief uptick is expected. SW
winds will increase to 20-25 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt, mainly
across the Pamlico Sound and the coastal waters from Oregon
Inlet to Cape Lookout. Seas will respond by building back to 4-6
ft across the central waters. Occasional gusts to 25 kt are
possible north of Oregon Inlet and south of Cape Lookout, but
this is expected to be brief and isolated. Conditions will
improve by late tonight with winds becoming westerly and
decreasing to 15-20 kt by sunrise.

Outlook: Pleasant conditions will stick around through Saturday
but deteriorate once again on Sunday ahead of a strong cold
front forecast to cross the area on Monday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT
     Saturday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT
     Saturday for AMZ156.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...OJC
AVIATION...SK
MARINE...OJC