Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

398
FXUS62 KMHX 020108
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
908 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Have issued small craft advisories for our waters starting on
Sunday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Last dry day today.

2) Warm front/coastal trough moves through Sunday morning, with
above average rain chances Sunday into midweek.

Marine: SCA conditions develop Sunday into Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1..Southerly onshore flow and a mix of high clouds and
diurnal Cu will be the name of the game this afternoon as high
pressure continues to shift further offshore. This mornings upper
air sounding still shows pretty widespread dry air across ENC today
so outside of some increasing cloud cover as moisture continues to
advect in moistening up the atm profile, not expecting much in
the way of rain this afternoon. Highs get into the low 90s to
upper 80s inland and mid 80s along the coast and OBX today.

KEY MESSAGE 2...We enter into an unsettled pattern once again
starting tonight into Sunday with daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms into at least mid week. Upper level trough currently
in the Midwest will dive SE`wards into the Tennessee River Valley
Sun into Mon eventually stalling as an upper level ridge blocks
this troughs forward progress. At the mid levels, will see
multiple shortwaves round the base of this trough promoting
periods of lift across ENC and the offshore waters with the
first weak mid level shortwave tracking along the coast starting
tonight into Sun morning with additional shortwaves coming in
from the west Sun afternoon and again on Mon/Tue. At the
surface, closed low in the Midwest will gradually shift E`wards
into the Ohio River Valley with its associated surface front
stalling just to the west. These features, in addition to the
sea breeze each afternoon/evening, will be the main forcing
present for a notable increase in precip chances.

Starting later tonight into Sun there will be two areas of
focus for shower and thunderstorm activity. The first will be
overnight into Sun morning along and behind a N`ward moving warm
front/coastal trough with much of the activity occuring near
and east of Hwy 17. We should still be too dry aloft inland as
the boundary moves through, so thunder chances remain low inland
Sun morning. Proximity to the gulf stream could allow isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms to reach coastal
communities south of Oregon Inlet. The second will be in the
afternoon/evening with shower and thunderstorm activity coming
in from the west associated with the stalling upper trough.
Cloud cover will play a big role in how high instability can
truly get, but with the dewpoints rising there should be enough
instability entering the region for 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE
Sunday. While shear is not too impressive with the
unidirectional SE flow, the combination of long, skinny CAPEs,
PWATs over 2", and slow storm motions could result in heavy
rainfall rates and wet microbursts where storms develop. The
best coverage is expected to be to our west closer to I-95, with
more isolated to scattered coverage across the Coastal Plain
but will continue to monitor trends in the CAM guidance and
adjust PoPs accordingly.

Monday the trough will remain stalled to our west and gradually
weaken. This reduces the potential for height falls over the region
despite the trough creeping a bit closer. Still, we should see
embedded shortwaves moving through aloft. Slightly better
forcing, paired with another day of long skinny CAPEs and PWATs
north of 2" brings higher precip chances compared to Sunday with
heavy rainfall rates, a low end wet microburst threat, and slow
storm motion vectors. All this brings flash flooding concerns
to mind, especially with how much rain has been observed in many
locations in the past 1-2 weeks.

We are currently in a Marginal (level 1/5) Excessive Rain Outlook
for Sunday and Monday with best chances at seeing flash flooding
likely along Hwy 17 and points east. What prevents it from
being higher is the uncertainty on instability with antecedent
cloud cover and the lack of substantial ground-level forcing.
With high temps forecast to only be in the low to mid 80s
Monday, the sea breeze may be weak in nature.

Beyond Monday, the trough/low is still expected to linger to our
west until eventually it gets picked up and shifted to our north by
another trough moving through the Great Lakes region. As a result,
daily elevated precip chances continue through mid-week with a low
end risk for flash flooding. By the end of the week it looks like we
return back to climo or below climo PoPs as a lack of mid level
shortwaves or significant forcing will be noted across ENC though we
do begin to warm back up with temps returning to the upper 80s to
low 90s inland and mid 80s along the OBX.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through much of the TAF period,
however there will be opportunities for sub-VFR conditions at
times. A wetter pattern will begin to develop late tonight into
Sunday bringing an increased chance showers that could bring
occasional sub-VFR conditions to the terminals. Initially,
coastal sections will have the better chance for showers with
onshore flow, then will expand inland through the day Sunday.
May also see a period of MVFR cigs as the LCL`s rise from around
daybreak through the morning hours with highest probs across
western rtes. Southerly flow will also increase Sunday with
gusts around 20-25 kt during the afternoon.

Outlook (Sunday night through Thursday): Periods of sub-VFR
ceilings/vis are possible Sun night into early next week as ENC
enters into a more unsettled period of weather with daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms with a stalled upper
trough off to the west. Precip chances and thus the threat for
sub-VFR conditions look to decrease beyond Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
Biggest chance on this update was the inclusion of small craft
advisories starting on Sunday across all near shore coastal
waters and inland waters. Ongoing 5-10 kt S-SE`rly winds with
gusts up to 15 kts will continue into tonight with winds
becoming more S-SW`rly and increasing to 15-25 kts with gusts up
to 25-30 kts late Sun morning into Sun afternoon. IN response to
the strengthening winds Sun, expect ongoing 1-3 ft seas across
our coastal waters to build late Sun morning to 4-8 ft by Sun
evening, thus resulting in widespread SCA conditions. In
addition to this as a weak warm front/ coastal trough lifts
north across the area increasing shower and thunderstorm chances
are likely starting from south to north Sun morning and
persisting into the end of the period.


Outlook (Sunday night through Thursday): Southerly winds remain
elevated into Monday before gradually decreasing Mon afternoon
and evening keeping SCA in place. Winds will ease first across
the inland waters and N`rn sounds thus ending SCA`s by Mon
morning here with SCA`s ending across the coastal waters south
of Oregon Inlet by Mon evening. Expect more benign winds and
seas from Tue onwards as weak high pressure builds over the
area. In addition to the above, elevated chances for showers and
thunderstorms will remain possible into midweek.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday evening for NCZ195-196-
     199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for
     AMZ131-150-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for
     AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ136-
     137.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 11 PM EDT Monday for
     AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RCF/RJ
AVIATION...SK/RCF
MARINE...RCF/RJ