Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

227
FXUS62 KMHX 071856
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
156 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Expanded Small Craft Advisories to include coastal waters from
Ocracoke Inlet to Surf City. Increased wind gusts for Sunday and
Thursday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Well above normal to near record conditions expected
through mid next week with high pressure ridging offshore.

2) Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms possible Sunday
afternoon and evening.

3) Strong cold front moves through the region Thursday

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...An anomalously strong ridge remain in place
over the southeastern CONUS into early next week. This will
bring near record temperatures possible for some inland zones
during the afternoon today (see Climate Section below). Highs
will reach the upper 70s/low 80s generally along and west of US
17, and upper 60s/low 70s closer to the coast. Approaching front
Sunday and Monday may keep temps a few deg cooler, but still
well above normal. After this front lifts back to the north,
potentially even warmer conditions are likely to develop by mid
next week ahead of a stronger frontal system Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A weak front will enter the Carolinas Sunday
and linger through Monday, leading to scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Modest instability and shear will support the
threat for isolated strong to possibly severe thunderstorms
Sunday afternoon and evening. SPC has most of the area in a
Marginal Svr risk (mainly along and west of Hwy 17). Coverage is
expected to be scattered as the line of showers and tstorms
enters the CWA, but becomes more widespread once interacting
with the sea breeze along hwy 17. For this reason, kept PoPs as
likely west of hwy 17, increasing to categorical along and east
of hwy 17. Rainfall amounts still do not look to exceed half an
inch due to the progressive nature of the line.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A deep neutral to negatively tilted upper
trough is modeled to approach the eastern seaboard Thursday as
a surface low sweeps through the Great Lakes region. Trailing
from this low, a strong cold front moves through ENC Thursday.
Ahead of this front, strong southwesterly winds will help bring
up moisture, with PWATs modeled to be in the 1.25-1.5" range.
While there will be ample forcing, there is still a lot of
uncertainty on timing and amount of CAPE available. An earlier
progression of the precip (Thursday Morning) would keep
instability on the lower end, reducing a severe threat. However,
an afternoon progression of the precip would maximize the
available instability. This front will be worth monitoring for
severe weather concerns as it gets closer. Given the impressive
dynamics of this system, elected to not use NBM winds for
Thursday as they appear to be much too low. Current forecast has
wind gusts around 30 mph inland, 35mph along the coast. Behind
the front cool, dry air moves in for Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Expect VFR conditions to continue to persist into Sat evening
with diurnal sct VFR strato cu through this afternoon and swrly
winds 5-15 kt. Tonight, with inc swrly gradient winds, fog will
not be a concern, though IFR to MVFR stratus looks like a good
possibility, with probabilities for IFR stratus of 60-80% late
tonight, generally after 08Z. For this reason, have a prevailing
IFR deck developing after 08Z for all terminals. Low stratus
will mix out after 14Z Sun. Showers with sct thunderstorms
develop on Sunday afternoon into early evening as a cold front
approaches.

Outlook...Monday through Thursday: Once this front pushes
through the area it will likely stall near the region continuing
to bring chances for sub-VFR conditions to ENC Mon and Tue
before widespread VFR conditions officially return on Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs show south to southwest winds at 10-15 kt or less
with seas 2-4 ft with high pressure offshore. Pleasant boating
conditions will continue today with SSW winds increasing to
10-20 kt tonight. SW winds will mix well over the warmer
central waters late tonight, increasing to 15-20 kt gusting to
25-30 kt with seas building locally up to 6-7 ft. Expanded the
SCA to southern waters as well with this update, with satellite
imagery indicating warm gulf stream waters encroaching into our
southern marine zones. These warm waters will help mix down
stronger wind gusts.

Minor sea fog persists along some of our waters early this
afternoon. However, it is not expected to be widespread or dense
enough for a Marine Dense Fog Advisory. Tonight, we could see
another round of sea fog, although strengthening SW winds may
work against dense fog formation.

Outlook: SCA conditions likely to continue for the central
waters through Sunday night for gusts to 25 kt and seas around 6
ft. A stronger front will likely cross the waters Thursday. SW
winds will strengthen ahead of the front Wed and Wed night with
SCA conditions likely.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for 03/07 (today)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern      89/1974  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 74/2022  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville    84/1961  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 74/1991  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston       86/1908  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville  85/1974  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Sunday to 4 AM EST Monday for
     AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Sunday to 2 AM EST Monday for
     AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CQD/RJ
AVIATION...TL
MARINE...CQD/RJ