Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

924
FXUS62 KMHX 311820
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
220 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Extended the Small Craft Advisory across the near shore coastal
waters a few hours.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A cooler post-frontal airmass and northeast flow will lead
to a drop in temperatures over the weekend.

2) Next chance of appreciable rain comes mid to late next week
with a low pressure system moving out of the Deep South.

Marine: Northeasterly winds and seas will gradually subside
through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...High pressure will continue to build in from
the north through the weekend bringing northeast flow and
cooler but seasonable temperatures with highs in the upper 60s
to near 70 degrees. Along the Outer Banks, highs may struggle to
reach the mid-60s. Away from bodies of water, lows should fall
into the 40s tonight thanks to a drier airmass and lighter
winds. High pressure won`t be directly overhead, though, and
there will be a lot of high clouds streaming through, which
should prevent lows from getting as low as they otherwise could.

KEY MESSAGE 2...An amplified upper level trough is forecast to
move into the Central U.S. early next week, but that is where
confidence begins to drop. By the middle to latter half of next
week, medium range guidance continues to vary drastically with
the evolution of the upper trough as it shifts towards the
Eastern U.S. Most guidance point towards at least a piece of the
upper trough getting cutoff from the flow, but where that
cutoff occurs, and if it occurs at all, is a big question mark.
Meanwhile, for comparison, AI guidance suggests a more
progressive and less amplified evolution of the trough as it
reaches the East Coast, with less cutoff potential.

While the upper level differences equate to much different
sensible weather outcomes, the general theme appears to a
pattern that favors a period of southerly flow with milder
temperatures, increasing moisture, and the potential for showers
and thunderstorms. The forecast is very much subject to change
during this timeframe, though, so stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure building in from the north is bringing gusty NE
winds this afternoon with gusts around 15-20 kt inland and to
around 25 kt along the coast. Winds will diminish tonight but
light winds and a sufficiently dry airmass is expected to
preclude fog development. NE winds continue Sunday but won`t
be quite as gusty. VFR conditions expected to prevail through
the TAF period with sct-bkn mid and high clouds.

Outlook: The northeast flow across the area this weekend will
transition to an easterly flow as we move into early next week.
Increasing moisture within this flow appears supportive of low
CIGs and the potential for BR/FG development (not unlike what
was experienced the past few days locally). Some SHRA will be
possible as well, especially for coastal terminals (KEWN, KMRH).
Of note, confidence is lower regarding the potential for low
CIGs and SHRA during this time, but it`s worth mentioning the
potential.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will continue to build into the region into early
next week bringing NE winds across the waters. Winds currently
around 15-20 kt. Gusts to around 25-30 kt are mainly confined
to the coastal waters closer south of Cape Hatteras, especially
near the Gulf Stream. Seas are currently around 5-7 ft for the
nearshore waters and up to around 8 ft across the offshore
waters.

Winds diminish to around 10-20 kt overnight into Sunday, highest
across of Onslow Bay where gusts up to 25 kt may continue. Seas
are a foot or so higher than wave guidance across the nearshore
waters and have extended the SCA a few hours to allow for a
slower subsidence. Seas will be around 3-5 ft across the
nearshore coastal waters Sunday into Monday, though continue
around 5-7 ft across the outer coastal waters south of Cape
Hatteras.

Outlook: Northeast flow is expected to last through at least
Tuesday, along with elevated seas. By the middle of next week,
the pattern is forecast to begin changing, and this should
eventually least to an east to southeast flow developing for a
change. Guidance is mixed on whether or not a period of stronger
east to southeast winds will develop or not mid next week. For
now the forecast reflects sub-25kt winds mid to late next week,
but the forecast is subject to change, so stay tuned.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203-
     205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ152-154-156-
     158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RM/SK
AVIATION...RM/SK
MARINE...RM/SK