Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

691
FXUS62 KMHX 311841
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
241 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Seasonable and mostly dry through Saturday.

2) Warm front/coastal trough moves through Sunday morning, with
above average rain chances Sunday into midweek.

Marine: SCA conditions likely to develop Sunday into Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...No real changes to forecast thinking through
Saturday as high pressure will gradually build overhead today
bringing light and variable winds to the area before pushing
offshore tonight. Could see a few isolated sea breeze showers
this afternoon and again on Sat afternoon but confidence is too
low to include any mentionable PoPs either day given ample dry
air and subsidence over ENC. Otherwise seasonable temps forecast
today as highs reach the upper 80s to low 90s inland, and mid
80s along the coast. Lows tonight get into the upper 60s to 70s.
Southerly onshore flow begins in earnest on Sat allowing
atmospheric profile to gradually moisten. As a result while we
likely wont see much in the way of rain on Sat, we should see
an increase in cloud cover, which will keep Highs in the upper
80s to low 90s inland, mid 80s along the coast once again.

KEY MESSAGE 2...No real changes to forecast thinking as ENC once
again enters into a period of unsettled weather starting on Sunday.
An upper trough will be deepening over the Ohio Valley Sun morning
as it moves towards the Eastern Seaboard, while at the surface
an associated closed low is expected to traverse the Great Lakes
region. As these features move east, they will encounter the
Bermuda high which is expected to stall this upper trough,
surface low, and its associated fronts before they reach the
Eastern Seaboard. While the upper trough stalls, embedded
shortwaves rounding the base of the trough are forecast to
advect into the region Sun through at least Mon/Tue. These
features, in addition to the sea breeze each afternoon/evening,
will be the main forcing present for a notable increase in
precip chances.

There will be two areas of focus for shower and thunderstorm
activity on Sunday. The first will be Sun morning along and behind a
N`ward moving warm front/coastal trough with much of the activity
occuring near and east of Hwy 17. The second will be in the
afternoon/evening with shower and thunderstorm activity coming in
from the west associated with the stalled upper trough. Cloud cover
will play a big role in how high instability can truly get, but with
the dewpoints rising there should be enough instability entering the
region for 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE Sunday. While shear is not too
impressive with the unidirectional SE flow, the combination of long,
skinny CAPEs, PWATs over 2", and slow storm motions could result in
heavy rainfall rates and wet microbursts where storms develop. Will
note shower and thunderstorm activity will be scattered in nature on
Sun so showers and storms will be "hit or miss".

Monday the trough is still stalled to our west, but is just a little
bit closer allowing for weak height falls and weak embedded
shortwaves to move through aloft. This better forcing, paired with
another day of long skinny CAPEs and PWATs north of 2" brings high
precip chances with heavy rainfall rates and a low end wet
microburst threat and slow storm motion vectors. The better forcing
likely brings with it better coverage of precip. All this brings
flash flooding concerns to mind, especially with how much rain has
been observed in many locations in the past 1-2 weeks. We are
currently in a Marginal (level 1/5) Excessive Rain Outlook for
Sunday. What prevents it from being higher is likely the uncertainty
on instability with antecedent cloud cover and the lack of
substantial ground-level forcing. With high temps forecast to only
be in the low to mid 80s Sunday, the sea breeze may be weak in
nature.

Beyond Monday, the trough/low is still expected to linger to our
west until eventually it gets picked up and shifted to our north by
another trough moving through the Great Lakes region. As a result,
daily elevated precip chances continue through mid-week with a low
end risk for flash flooding.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
No sig changes in forcast thinking as the forecast once again calls
for light winds and VFR ceilings/vis through tonight. Weak seabreeze
pushes inland this afternoon, but outside of a minor direction
change wind speeds remain light. Some patchy ground fog isn`t out of
the question tonight once again across the terminals and surrounding
areas mainly after 06Z, but confidence is not high enough to include
this threat in the TAFs. As we get into Sat high pressure ridge
pushes offshore allowing winds to become S`rly at 5-10 kts though
VFR conditions continue.

Outlook (Saturday night through Wednesday): It remains dry with
primarily VFR conditions forecast through Sat evening as high
pres remains offshore. Periods of sub-VFR may develop Sun into
early next week as ENC enters into a more unsettled period of
weather with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms with a
stalled upper trough off to the west. Precip chances and thus
the threat for sub- VFR conditions look to decrease beyond Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
Benign boating conditions continue across our waters today as
latest obs show widespread 5-10 kt winds and 2-3 ft seas across
our waters today. Expect benign conditions to continue through
Saturday with winds becoming S`rly as high pressure builds
overhead and pushes further offshore on Sat.

Outlook (Saturday night through Wed): Southerly flow continues
through Sat night with seas persisting at 2-3 ft. Southerly
winds will strengthen Sunday to 15-25 kts with gusts up to 25-30
kts ahead of an approaching front. Seas will also respond
building closer to 4-7 ft across the coastal waters bringing an
increasing chance of SCA conditions to much of our waters Sun
into Mon. In addition to this, increasing chances for showers
and thunderstorms will be possible as well starting Sun.
Winds/Seas begin to ease later Mon night into Tue with weak
high pressure building overhead and aforementioned front
dissipating to the west.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RCF/RJ
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...RCF/RJ