Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

480
FXUS62 KMHX 271123
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
723 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The SCA has been cancelled for the inland rivers.

SPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe storms
for the Wednesday into Wednesday night system.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A progressive pattern continues this week with additional
opportunities for rain mid week and again next weekend. There is
a Marginal Risk of Severe Thunderstorms with the mid week
system.

Marine: Hazardous marine conditions continues across all our
waters into tonight with elevated seas persisting across our
coastal waters into midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A progressive pattern will continue through the
week with another low pressure system progged to push across
the area late Wednesday followed by another southern stream
system potentially impacting the area next weekend.

Ridging across the area early this week will breakdown Wednesday
as shortwave energy rotating around an upper low north of the
Great Lakes pushes across the area. The attendant low will pass
north of the area Wednesday with the trailing cold front pushing
across the area Wednesday night. A high shear/modest CAPE
environment will be in place ahead of the front that could
produce strong to severe thunderstorms across the region.
0-6km bulk shear progged to be around around 40 kt, however
instability is a bit more uncertain with global models showing
mainly around 500-1000 J/Kg, although some HiRes models are over
1000 J/Kg. SPC has the region in a Marginal Risk of severe
storms for Wednesday (level 1 of 5). Best forcing will be north
of the area and most guidance keeps precip amounts around a
quarter inch, however could see higher amounts in thunderstorms.

Run to run consistency among the models continues to be poor
for the system next weekend with the possibility for it to be
suppressed to the south, so confidence is not that high in the
forecast details but it is encouraging to see a more active
pattern in the models. While rainfall amounts through the week
will not have much impact with alleviating the drought,
hopefully precipitation and higher humidities will help reduce
the wildfire threat across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR cigs are expected to last until mid morning, then rapid
clearing is expected from W to E. Winds will remain out of the
NE at 10-15 kt with gusts to 15-20 kt through this afternoon,
becoming light 5 kt or less tonight.

Outlook (Tuesday through Friday): High pressure and generally
VFR conditions are expected through early Wed. Another front
and weak low may bring sub VFR with some showers and isolated
storms Wed afternoon through evening, exiting later Wed night
with a return to VFR through the rest of the week. Winds
generally in the 5-15 kt range through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
N to NE winds around 15 to 25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt with
seas around 5-8 ft continues across the waters early this
morning but conditions will gradually improve through tonight.
Have cancelled the SCA for the inland rivers and expect the
northern sound and Alligator River to drop below SCA early this
afternoon with the Pamlico Sound this evening. Elevated seas
will keep SCA conditions across the nearshore coastal waters
into mid week.

Outlook: Northerly winds continue to ease on Tue becoming less than
15 kt as high pressure builds overhead. Seas will remain elevated,
however, with SCA conditions persisting across portions of the
nearshore coastal waters into Wednesday. Another low pressure system
is progged to pass north of the area Wednesday night and could see
low end SCA conditions over portions of the nearshore coastal
waters redevelop Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ196-
     203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ131-
     230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SK
AVIATION...TL
MARINE...SK