Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

499
FXUS62 KMHX 301758
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
158 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Seasonable and mostly dry into the weekend.

2) A cold front will approach the area this weekend, becoming
unsettled again late weekend into next week.

Marine: SCA conditions may develop for portions of the coastal
waters late Sunday and early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1... High pressure over the Great Lakes vicinity
continues to gradually slide SE`wards this afternoon, while aloft
troughing remains overhead. This will keep enough dry air in place
and subsidence aloft to preclude much in the way of a rain threat
for the next few days outside of a stray seabreeze shower or
two. Have kept the forecast precip free through Sat given lack
of confidence in any precip occuring. Otherwise light winds and
seasonable temps are forecast into the weekend. Highs today have
gotten into the mid 80s and expect highs through Sat to
generally remain between the mid 80s to low 90s while lows
remain in the mid 60s to low 70s. Will note, with calm winds
and mo clear skies tonight and low level moisture from the
recent rains sticking around, can`t rule out some patchy shallow
ground fog tonight, though not expecting much in the way of
impacts from this regardless of development.

KEY MESSAGE 2... We get into a more unsettled pattern starting on
Sunday as an upper level trough dives SE`wards from the Upper
Midwest and tracking into the Tennessee River Valley this weekend
with multiple shortwaves then rotating around the trough axis from
Sunday into midweek next week. At the surface, a weak warm front
will lift north through the area Sat, while associated weakening sfc
low approaches the Mid-Atlantic. Guidance has begun keying in on a
weak coastal trough lifting north across the region on Sun bringing
the first initial round of showers and thunderstorms to the area with
additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms possible into mid week
next week as the aforementioned boundary likely stalls west of the
area and eventually dissipates. Will note given the scattered
nature of the activity showers and storms will be hit or miss.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Continued light winds and VFR conditions are forecast this
afternoon as high pressure gradually nudges in from the north
and west. Expect this to continue through the period. The one
caveat to all of this is there is a low end chance for some
patchy ground fog overnight tonight (after 06Z) across much of
the Coastal Plain including all the TAF sites. Will note, while
the HREF AND REFS are not too enthused with ground fog potential
tonight, the GLAMP has somewhat higher probs and given the
overall setup of light to calm winds, mo clear skies, and a
moist near surface layer due to recent rains, I can`t completely
rule out some patchy ground fog. Given the uncertainty have not
mentioned this in any of the TAFs outside of the discussion for
now, but will monitor trends this evening and ground fog could
be included on TAFs in future cycles. Either way not expecting
any significant impacts to operations even if patchy ground fog
does develop. After sunrise on Fri regardless of fog potential,
expecting VFR conditions and light winds through the day.

Outlook (Friday night through Tuesday): It remains dry with
primarily VFR conditions forecast Fri night through Sat as high pres
builds overhead and eventually pushes offshore. Periods of early
morning fog and/or stratus possible each night. Periods of sub-VFR
may develop Sun into early next week with increasing precip chances
ahead of an approaching front.

&&

.MARINE...
Benign boating conditions are noted across our area waters this
afternoon as high pressure continues to build in from the north and
west bringing widespread 5-10 kt winds coming from variable
directions and 2-4 ft seas to ENC. Expect winds to remain variable
in nature through Friday remaining around 5-10 kts while seas across
our offshore waters remain around 2-4 ft with dry conditions
forecast.

Outlook (Fri night through Tue): Flow becomes more southerly by Fri
night and remains around 5-10 kts through Sat with seas persisting
at 2-4 ft as high pressure pushes offshore. Southerly winds will
strengthen Sunday to 10-20 kts with gusts up to 25 kts across
portions of the coastal waters ahead of an approaching front. Seas
will also respond building closer to 4-6 ft across the offshore
waters bringing our next chance at SCA conditions to portions of our
waters Sun into Mon. In addition to this, increasing chances
for showers and thunderstorms will be possible as well starting
Sun. Conditions then ease Mon into Tue with weak high pressure
building overhead and aforementioned front dissipating to the
west.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CQD/RCF
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...CQD/RCF