Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

019
FXUS62 KMHX 201837
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
237 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Lowered pops Fri and Sat.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Areas of fog and low stratus possible for portions of ENC
late tonight and Thu morning.

2) Unsettled weather expected Thu into early next week, bringing
sct to numerous showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...With a similar setup to the past couple nights,
low stratus and areas of fog likely to develop over the SW
portions of the area late tonight and Thu morning. Best chances
are in Onslow/Duplin county, decreasing as you go further north
and east. Fog and low stratus will quickly scour out by 9 AM.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Thursday we will have a bit more moisture to
play with as the front approaches from the north. As a result,
we may see some isolated to scattered convection along the sea
breeze. Best chances along the coast in the morning, then
transitioning inland during the afternoon. Where the sea breeze
collides with the approaching cold front PoPs and QPF are
maximized. Temps likely a few deg cooler with better convective
chances and increased cloud cover.

The mid-upper level ridge will begin to break down some
Thursday and continue into the weekend, allowing a front to
drop south late Thursday into Friday and then stall as it
encounters the persistent ridging that has been over the region
for much of the past week. Confidence continues to increase on
the front reaching our CWA, with the most likely outcome being
the front briefly stalling over NC. The front will likely linger
over the area for a couple days before the boundary eventually
lifts back northward over the weekend with ridging building back
in its wake. The trend of a slower frontal passage has held
tonight, with the front not reaching our area from the north
until Thu evening. Increasing moisture and instability along
the frontal zone should support an increased risk of showers and
thunderstorms Thursday into the weekend. Probabilistic guidance
depicts a 30-40% chance of over a quarter inch of rainfall,
especially along and north of Highway 64 along the frontal
boundary on Thursday. Ahead of the front, the pre-storm
environment should be sufficiently unstable for a few storms as
CAPE peak at 750-1500 J/kg. With forecast steep low-level lapse
rates and modest dry air aloft, combined with PWATs in the
1.5-1.75" range, the environment would be marginally conducive
for the risk of a strong downburst in a more organized storm.
Said organization, however, would require some amount of deep
level shear and this appears lacking with 0-6 km values under 15
kt. Overall svr risk still looks low at this time for the next
few days. Main change through Sat was to lower pops, especially
Fri and Sat, with coverage likely remaining more sct in nature.
Beyond Sat, the front becomes weak enough that diurnal sea and
sound breezes become dominant, focusing the highest shower and
thunderstorm chances inland. Each of these days carries a low,
highly conditional severe risk as well per ML guidance.

Notably high PWATs along the frontal zone should support higher
rainfall rates in convection. However, notable hydro impacts are not
expected due to the recent dry stretch and ongoing drought
conditions. While probs are low, if we do see training storms over
urban areas, minor flooding impacts could be seen despite the
ongoing drought.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions across the area this afternoon, with few-sct
diurnal cu. Similar set up overnight with potential for another
round of fog and low stratus, especially across the SW forecast
area. Models have struggled with the fog and low stratus the
past few nights, being too passive compared to what has actually
occurred. Expect this to occur again tonight, so leaned towards
persistence. Best chances of VLIFR-IFR late tonight are for
OAJ, decreasing as you go north and east. VFR will return for
most of Thu, with sct showers and storms developing in the
afternoon.

Outlook: A frontal boundary sagging south into ENC is expected
to bring an increasing risk of SHRA, TSRA, and sub-VFR
conditions into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs show SSW winds 5-15 kt with seas 2-3 ft. Summer-
like pattern will continue through Thursday, with lighter winds
in the mornings then increasing to 10-20 kt in the afternoon
and evenings as the thermal gradient tightens. Seas will
continue around 2-3 ft, potentially up to 4 ft during the
afternoon and evening.

Outlook: A frontal boundary is forecast to sag south into the
area Thursday evening/night, then linger near the waters into
Saturday. This leads to lower confidence regarding winds and
seas, but especially wind direction. NE-E winds will develop
behind the front, while remaining SSW ahead of it, generally
5-15 kt. In general, the risk of 25kt+ winds appears low during
this time ahead of the front. There will be an increased risk
of thunderstorms in the region Thursday through Monday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CQD
AVIATION...CQD
MARINE...CQD