Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

211
FXUS62 KMHX 121904
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
304 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Tweaked PoP forecast over the next few days to align with
current trends.

Added a small craft advisory to our southern waters.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dangerous heat continues this afternoon.

2) Strong to severe thunderstorms possible this evening and tonight

3) Pattern expected to become more conducive for showers and
thunderstorms for the weekend into early next week. Another chance
for severe thunderstorms on Sunday.

4) Potential for hazardous heat and windy conditions late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...As expected we have gotten rather hot across ENC
today with temps in the upper 90s to near 100 across inland areas
with mid 80s to low 90s across the OBX today. This will threaten
records (see climate section below for record high info), and as a
matter of fact we look to have already broken New Bern`s record high
as New Bern has already gotten to 96 breaking the previous record of
95 with the potential to climb even higher before we cool off.
Combined with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s heat indices in
the 100-109 range are prevalent across inland areas where the
ongoing heat advisory is. The NWS experimental Heat Risk guidance
shows much of ENC in the major category, with a few areas nearing
the extreme category which lends further confidence in impactful
heat across ENC through this afternoon. We will cool down slightly
in the following days with highs in the low to mid 90s into early
next week so while heat headlines are not anticipated, it will still
feel like full swing summer, and any precautions you can take if you
plan to be outside for longer durations are encouraged. While it`s a
lower end potential (less than 20%) the caveat to the current
forecasted heat and heat indices through this weekend will be the
coverage of convection (see KEY MESSAGE 2 for additional details),
and the potential for high clouds/convective debris. Both of those
factors can have significant impacts on the temperature forecast
each day.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Besides the heat we continue to watch for the threat
for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and into tonight.
Latest mesoanalysis shows a weak shortwave pushing offshore with
attendant subsidence directly behind the departing shortwave. A
second shortwave is noted further west out towards Appalachia moving
east. With 850C temps generally around 20-21C this afternoon
subsidence aloft has held on strong which has limited thunderstorm
potential along the seabreeze this afternoon. However, outside of
this we do currently note MLCAPE values between 1500-2500 J/kg,
DCAPE values above 1000 J/kg, and decent mid level lapse rates
around 6-7 C/km. This could counterbalance at least somewhat the
ongoing subsidence as these values tend to promote quick developing
updrafts if they can overcome the subsidence aloft. So while there
is still a low end threat for thunderstorms along the seabreeze
currently putting a ~20% threat max, if a storm could take advantage
of the environment and overcome the subsidence, brief but strong
down burst winds (40-60 mph) would be the main hazard within the
strongest storms. Then as we get into tonight, stronger showers and
tstorms develop to our W and approach the area near sunset.
This activity could hold on long enough, and potentially
reinvigorate over the area when the prefrontal trough interacts with
the seabreeze as it works over the Coastal Plain. While MLCAPE
values may be on the downtrend Fri evening lowering to 1000 J/kg or
less by about 9-11PM, ongoing activity could be more cold pool
dominated and sustain itself as it enters into ENC. Greatest risk is
generally north of Hwy 70 with wind (40-60 mph) being the primary
hazard. SPC has also highlighted this area under a Slight Risk (lvl
2/5) given the attendant wind threat. The storms over this area
could also bring periods of heavy downpours. By the time the storms
reach areas near the coast, they are expected to be weakening and
mostly cold pool dominated, but still pose a threat of bringing
strong winds along the outflow boundaries, and as such, SPC has
outlined the rest of the FA in a Marginal Risk (lvl 1/5).

KEY MESSAGE 3...Synoptic pattern is expected to shift towards
something more favorable for convection across ENC this weekend and
into early next week with a weak front crossing the FA SAT and
stalling to the S of the area into early next week when troughing
aloft develops, opening moisture transport from the Gulf. However,
this shouldn`t be read as a high coverage of thunderstorms each day.

Temps aloft "cool" slightly as heights aloft fall ahead of the front
and the stout mid level ridge begins to weaken, and this may support
at least a risk of higher coverage seabreeze convection on Sat,
particularly along the Crystal Coast seabreeze where likely PoPs are
mentioned. The ample moisture noted by PWATs rising to 2-2.5in,
strong destabilization due to typical summer time heating and the
height falls aloft poses a threat for the development of tstorms
which could be strong to marginally severe. On Sunday a prefrontal
trough develops around the coastal plain providing the necessary
focus for shower and thunderstorm development Sun afternoon and
evening. Activity likely starts off to the north and west and
progresses E`wards as the afternoon wears on. With strong
instability forecast to be in place and increase shear with values
closer to 25-35 kts a few of these storms could become strong to
severe in nature with the strongest activity likely noted along our
northern tier. Damaging wind gusts would be the primary hazard
within the strongest storms.

Early next week, higher than climo shower and storm chances are in
the forecast with the greater moisture content through the column
leading to PWATs in excess of 2". Additionally, deep layer shear of
around 30-35kt with weak cyclogenesis along another front set to
approach and stall over the area Mon may support a modest increase
in the potential for organized convection, some of which could be on
the strong side. The last of a series of fronts finally pushes off
the coast by midweek allowing for lower precip chances outside of a
daily seabreeze. We will be monitoring the approach of yet another
front late next week as well.

KEY MESSAGE 4...Heat and humidity look to crank up a notch once
again late next week which could bring the potential for hazardous
heat indices and related health impacts. Probabilistic heat risk
guidance suggests a 40-60% chance at reaching major level heat risk
thresholds on Thurs/Fri. In addition to this, with the approach of a
front associated with a deepening low located well to the north,
breezy conditions would be possible as well if current trends
hold.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Once again VFR flight cats are forecast for a majority of the
forecast period. SW winds continue this afternoon with a few
gusts up to 15-20 kts especially after the seabreeze pushes
through. Could see a chance for showers and thunderstorms after
00z Sat with broken linear segments of thunderstorms approaching
from the NW. Storms will be strongest over NWern portions (PGV)
and weakening as they approach the coast. These storms could
bring reduced VIS and strong winds. Have kept the PROB30 groups
for PGV, ISO, EWN, and OAJ with the greatest chance for flight
op impacts at PGV. After showers/storms roll through, light
SWerly breeze and VFR CIGs and VIS are forecast through the rest
of the forecast period.

Outlook: Better chance for afternoon/evening showers/storms this
weekend when a front crosses the region Sat, stalling to the S and
into early next week, with tempo reductions in vsby and/or cigs
accompanying the heavier showers (best chance SAT afternoon over
SWern zones/OAJ). Another front approaches and stalls over the area
MON leading to a wet period early next week with greater chances for
subVFR flight cats until the front clears through mid-week.
&&

.MARINE...
Steady SW winds at 10-20 kts with a few gusts up near 25 kts are
noted across our coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet and the
Pamlico Sound with lighter and more variable winds noted across
the northern sounds and coastal waters as of this update. The
thermal gradient will continue to tighten this afternoon
allowing for more frequent gusts up to 25 kts, mainly along the
coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet and across the Pamlico
Sound resulting in small craft advisories across these waters
into this evening. Winds are then forecast to ease tonight
allowing for the SCA`s to end closer to 11PM. Seas will
generally remain around 2-4 ft through this timeframe. However,
will note while background winds do ease there will be a low end
threat for a line of showers and thunderstorms to impact our
waters tonight as a decaying line of thunderstorms approaches
from the west after 11PM. Locally enhanced winds and seas will
be possible within the strongest storms that impact our waters.
Afterwards a weak cold front will begin moving through our
waters from north to south with 10-15 kt SW`rly winds with gusts
up to 20 kts noted to the south of the front with winds
shifting to a NE-E direction at 5-10 kts behind the front. This
front is forecast to continue south through the day and stall
just south of the area by SAt evening. Seas remain around 2-4 ft
through the rest of the period.


Outlook (Sat night through Wed): The risk of thunderstorms will
increase into early next week, with best chances in the late
afternoon to evening hours. A front will cross Sat and stall to
the S. SWerly flow returns SUN with another chance for more SCAs
ahead of a front set to approach and then stall over ENC on
MON. This front will clear through by midweek with high pressure
briefly returning thereafter.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for 06/12 (Friday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        95/2016  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   89/1922  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      98/1914  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   92/1952  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         95/1986  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    95/2016  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ029-044>047-
     079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ135-
     152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CEB/RCF
AVIATION...CEB/RCF
MARINE...CEB/RCF