Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

936
FXUS62 KMHX 050714
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
214 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Widely scattered showers along and just inland from the coast
overnight due to coastal trough.

Maintained highest thunder chances for coastal plain counties
Friday with potential severe.

Raised max temps on the OBX through Friday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warm with increasing moisture and isolated showers through
Thursday.

2) Widespread showers and a few severe thunderstorms possible
ahead of a cold front on Friday.

3) Cooler, drier, and more seasonable behind the frontal passage
this weekend.

Aviation: LIFR conditions possible through early Thursday
morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Little change to the forecast reasoning and
synoptic setups through Thursday. An amplified upper trough
will be shifting east out of the Central U.S. A progressive and
open wave will sweep through the Eastern U.S at the end of the
week. Before that happens, low level flow is currently veering
southeast to south as weak coastal trough lifts through, which
is producing some widely scattered showers from Swanquarter to
Jacksonville and along the southern coast. Another fog and low
stratus threat tonight into Thursday morning as moistening
boundary layer continues. Southerly flow Thursday, but with no
forcing in place will maintain PoPs generally less than 20%.
Warm Thursday with highs in the lower 80s interior to 70s
beaches. Overnight lows remain above climatology, with readings
in the 60s the next few nights.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Friday - Still looks like widespread showers
and a few thunderstorms breaking out during the afternoon into
evening as a cold front moves through Eastern NC. Anomalous
moisture and higher-than-normal instability for early November
is expected, as indicated by EFI highlighting CAPE vals nearing
the 80th percentile. Have maintained thunder threat for inland
areas where the EFI is highlighting the higher CAPE/Shear
indices inland, and where highest instability and shear will
reside. If best forcing lines up with peak heating, a strong to
severe thunderstorm threat would materialize for areas
especially west of HWY 17 Friday afternoon. Main threat would
be damaging wind gusts. The front sweeps offshore late Friday
with any remaining showers exiting the OBX before daybreak Sat.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Good agreement amongst models with frontal
passage late Friday, allowing a more seasonably dry airmass to
usher in for the weekend. Return to mostly sunny skies and
highs in the upper 60s to low 70s Sat, then cooler yet for Sun
with 60-65. Lows will be in the 40s, with some 30s for some of
the normally colder spots.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecast confidence is moderate over the next 24 hours.

High clouds streaming over the area may complicate the evolution of
aviation concerns overnight, especially as it relates to VIS. While
guidance continue to point towards a risk of low stratus, it`s less
clear whether or not VIS will drop as much as what occurred 24 hours
ago. For now, the TAFs were left mostly unchanged, but are subject
to change overnight. Any low stratus should rise during the day
Thursday, and may even scatter out at times. Low stratus may then
redevelop Thursday evening into Thursday night as low-level moisture
advection and weak lift increases ahead of a cold front approaching
from the west.

Outlook: On Friday, a cold front is forecast to move through with an
increased risk of SHRA and TSRA. Some of the strongest TSRA may be
accompanied by a risk of strong winds of 40kt+. Very heavy rain and
IFR/LIFR VIS will be possible as well. The northwest wind shift
along the front is expected to occur Friday evening or Friday night.
A drier northwesterly flow behind the front should then support
mainly VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Light to moderate southeasterly winds will continue through the
period (strongest across the outer southern and central
waters). Seas 2-5 ft will gradually build through tonight with
developing SE winds and increasing swell from low pressure well
offshore. Seas will build to 3-5 ft nearshore and 4-6 ft
offshore through Friday. Scattered light showers will be
possible through Thursday.

Outlook (Friday through Monday): Southerly winds will cont in
the 5-15 kt range, though a better chance for some advected 6+
ft seas as weak low pressure develops well offshore Friday into
the weekend. Cold front passes through late Friday, with winds
turning northwesterly behind the frontal passage but should
cont remaining below 25 knots, though elevated seas around 6 ft
or greater may cont.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DAG/TL
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...DAG/TL