Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

989
FXUS62 KMHX 051915
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
215 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Higher confidence in scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday
and into early next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dense fog threat will return along the coast tonight and
persist for the next few overnight periods.

2) Well above normal to near record conditions expected
through early next week with high pressure ridging offshore.

Aviation...Increased risk of IFR/LIFR conditions late this
evening into Friday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Pattern across the CONUS remains stagnant,
especially over the eastern portion of the country with
pronounced mid-level ridging and persistent moist low-level
southwesterly flow. After hanging on for much of the morning,
lingering near-shore sea fog has lifted and all areas have good
visibility today. Persistence forecast is the name of the game
day with no change in the pattern except for even higher dew
points, with fog developing close to midnight and hanging on
into the morning hours with coastal areas likely socked in
longer. Highest risk for lowest visibilities is areas along and
south of US 70.

A similar pattern will continue for the next couple of days,
and sea fog will likely persist in some fashion into Sunday
morning. Expect the most widespread areas of fog to develop at
night, especially after midnight, and fog could extend inland
from the coast at times.

KEY MESSAGE 2...An anomalously strong ridge remain in place over
the southeastern CONUS into early next week. This will bring
near record temperatures possible for some inland zones some
afternoons, especially tomorrow through this weekend (see
Climate Section below). Highs will reach the upper 70s/low 80s
generally along and west of US 17, and upper 60s/low 70s closer
to the coast. The immediate coast will remain cooler due to very
cold ocean/sound temperatures.

Latest forecast trends show a weak front moving into the
Carolinas late this weekend and into early next week, bringing
the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms...though
it looks like well above normal temps will continue.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Daytime heating and mixing have helped erode any residual fog
from this morning, leaving behind scattered cumulus clouds. This
should support VFR conditions through at least sunset. After
sunset, and especially overnight into early Friday morning, the
focus will shift to the potential for IFR/LIFR conditions in low
CIGs and BR/FG. Guidance shows a strong signal for low CIGs and
FG tonight, not unlike what has been happening the past couple
of nights and mornings. Therefore, confidence in sub VFR
conditions is high. However, where confidence is lower is how
far inland the low CIGs and FG will get, and how low CIGs and
VIS will get. With this TAF issuance, I trended the forecast at
each TAF site more pessimistically, and tried to more closely
match how CIGs and VIS evolved last night and this morning.
Below is some probability information for each TAF site to help
tell the full story of the LIFR potential tonight into early
Friday morning.

LIFR PROBABILITY (06z-13z Friday)

KEWN: 40-60%
KPGV: 10-30%
KOAJ: 60-80%
KISO: 10-30%

Outlook: ENC will remain in the same weather pattern through
Saturday, with a continued risk of IFR/LIFR conditions each
night and morning. A cold front then moves into the area on
Sunday, leading to a change in the weather pattern, but also
bringing with it an increased risk of SHRA and TSRA. This risk
may linger into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
SEA FOG: Persistence forecast remains for sea fog tonight,
following the pattern of the previous nights. Sea fog will
likely redevelop this evening in moist and anomalously warm
southwesterly flow, eventually expanding overnight and bleeding
into inland areas. A similar pattern will continue for the next
couple of days, and sea fog will likely persist in some fashion
into Sunday morning. Expect the most widespread areas of fog to
develop at night, especially after midnight.

WINDS/SEAS: Pleasant boating conditions are expected (outside of
fog) for the next couple of days with high pressure offshore.
Winds will be SSW/SW at 5-15 kts and seas 3-5 ft.

Outlook: Good boating conditions continue into this weekend.
Winds generally be 10-20 kts out of the S/SW as high pressure
remains offshore. The pressure gradient will tighten Sunday and
into early next week as a front move into the area, and
winds/seas will approach Small Craft criteria for portions of
the marine area. A stronger front may cross the region in the
middle of next week, although significant timing and intensity
differences remain.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for 03/05 (Thursday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern      84/2015  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 74/1976  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville    86/1923  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 76/2023  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston       87/1976  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville  83/1985  (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 03/06 (Friday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern      85/1961  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 76/1992  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville    84/1961  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 74/1992  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston       85/1976  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville  82/1961  (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 03/07 (Saturday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern      89/1974  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 74/2022  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville    84/1961  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 74/1991  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston       86/1908  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville  85/1974  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SGK/MS
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...MS