Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

265
FXUS62 KMHX 141829
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
129 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Frost Advisory has been issued for tonight for the counties
surrounding the Freeze Warning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) First freeze of the season for much of ENC away from bodies of
water Sunday morning, with frost potential elsewhere. Cold mornings
continue through at least early in the work week.

2) Dry high pres continues through mid week with warm days but
chilly nights and continued ongoing drought conditions.

Marine: Elevated winds and seas to continue impacting portions of
the central and northern waters through late this evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Cold low-level thicknesses and strong high pressure
over the region will support frost/freeze impacts across much of ENC
late tonight into Sunday morning. Additional impacts are possible
early next week as well, although a killing freeze tonight would end
the frost/freeze program for the season where it occurs, and
additional frost/freeze headlines may not be needed anymore. The
Freeze Warning in effect for tonight still looks good. The only
change was to add a Frost Advisory for the counties surrounding the
warning where winds should decouple, especially away from bodies of
water. It should be noted that for both headlines, the greatest risk
of frost/freeze impacts will be away from bodies of water, with some
immediate coastal/beach communities probably not seeing any
frost/freeze impacts. The risk of frost impacts may be lessened
Sunday night as a weak cold front moves through which will keep the
boundary layer a bit more mixed. High pressure then reasserts itself
Monday and Tuesday night, with frost potential returning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The aforementioned very dry airmass and low TD`s
each day over the coming week will exacerbate the worsening drought
conditions in place across ENC, and fortunately winds are not
expected to be strong with the high nearby. However, fire weather
concerns may grow with the curing vegetation combined with low RH
values each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecast confidence is high over the next 24 hours.

Northwest flow, gusty at times, will persist into this afternoon,
then winds are expected to quickly decrease after sunset, and remain
light into Sunday morning. Scattered diurnally-driven cumulus clouds
around 5,000ft are expected to develop through this afternoon,
potentially reaching BKN at times. However, SHRA are not expected
today. Clouds should quickly decrease in coverage tonight with the
loss of daytime heating.

Outlook: A weak cold front will move through ENC Sunday evening and
night with a weak northeast wind shift. There may be a brief bump up
in winds as well, but at this time a significant increase in winds
is not expected. Light north to northeast winds are expected to
continue into much of next week as high pressure remains centered to
the north of the area. Scattered low clouds may accompany Sunday`s
weak cold front, but the risk of sub-VFR CIGs is low (<10% chance).

&&

.MARINE...
Elevated NW winds continue at this time across most waters.
Eventually, high pressure building in should allow winds to lay
down, first for the inland rivers/sounds, and then eventually
for the coastal waters. Winds won`t completely lay down for the
coastal waters, though, and a Small Craft Advisory will remain
in effect until late this evening for some of those waters. Seas
have peaked at 5-8ft this afternoon, but should begin to
gradually lay down tonight.

On Sunday, another cold front (weaker) is forecast to move through
the waters during the evening and nighttime hours. This front is
expected to lead to a brief bump up in winds as it moves through. A
brief period of 25kt winds will be possible with this front, but at
the moment it looks more marginal for marine headlines. Seas may
briefly get a bump up with the front as well, rebuilding to 5-7ft.

Outlook: A general N to NE flow of 10-20kt is expected for much of
the upcoming week as high pressure remains anchored to the north
while a broad area of low pressure resides to the south well
offshore of the Southeast U.S.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Sunday for NCZ029-044-045-
     079-080-090>092-193>195-198-199.
     Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Sunday for NCZ046-047-081-
     094-196.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for AMZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RM/TL
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...RM