Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

999
FXUS62 KMHX 251815
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
115 PM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes from the previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Increasing clouds with rain starting overnight into Thursday
with approaching cold front.

2) Growing signal for a fast moving low traversing the eastern
CONUS early next week bringing a risk of brief rainfall.

Marine...Gales continue through this evening for the outer
waters south of Oregon Inlet with SCA extending into Friday.
Next period of SCA conditions possible next Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...ENC remains sandwiched between high pressure
over FL and strong low pressure over southern Ontario. Much
milder overnight with clouds, increasing precip chances and SW
breeze. Lows falling only into the upper 40s and low 50s.

Cold front associated with the Canadian low will approach from
the west Thursday into Friday, with rain beginning as early as
tonight with increasing lift associated with embedded
shortwave. Main slug of precipitation is more likely Thur
and Thur night as main trough axis and surface frontal boundary
make their approach. Some limited thunder potential will be
confined to near the Gulf Stream. Model spread on rainfall
amounts is has not changed much, with odds of 24-hour amounts
exceeding half an inch still sitting at around 50%. Notably,
probabilities of rainfall exceeding an inch ticked up slightly
from this time yesterday, now at 20-30%. Concern remains these
odds are a bit inflated given antecedent drought conditions.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Once the Friday front clears through a few dry
days are expected for the weekend as high pressure extends in
from the north. The next potential system will come through the
area early next week as a quick moving low zips across the
central plains and mid-Atlantic. Still plenty of details to work
out with this given it is beyond Day 5, although it does not
look as wet as tomorrow`s system.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Modest southwesterly flow will continue for the TAF period
across much of ENC. Winds will be gusty at times within this
flow, especially through this afternoon. Gusts of 20-30kt have
been observed and will continue through the evening hours.

VFR conditions are anticipated into this evening. By late tonight,
the risk of sub-VFR conditions will increase, especially towards
sunrise Thursday morning. KISO and KPGV have MVFR ceilings starting
around 12Z Thursday due to the front moving slowly south into the
area. KEWN/KOAJ look to remain broken/overcast around 5kt through
18Z Thursday with the front being located farther north. Rain
chances also increase as the day/afternoon progresses Thurs.

Outlook: A slow-moving frontal zone will bring an increased risk of
sub-VFR conditions from Thursday afternoon through Saturday,
including a risk of IFR conditions. There will also be a risk of RA
and perhaps a few TSRA. The front is forecast to slowly move through
ENC Thursday night into Friday, and will be accompanied by a NE to N
wind shift.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs show SW winds 10-20 kt over the cooler nearshore
waters and 20-30 kt gusting 30-35 kt over the outer waters near
the Gulf Stream, with seas 3-6 ft north of Oregon Inlet and 5-10
ft south. Gusty winds will continue today as gradient tightens
between low pressure moving through the Great Lakes, the
attendant cold front and high pressure to the south. Gale
Warnings remain in effect through this evening for the waters
from Oregon Inlet south, with Gales most likely beyond 10 nm.
SCA also continues for the Pamlico Sound, and for the northern
waters. SW winds will diminish a bit overnight then increase
again Thu 15-25 kt. Another round of SCA conditions likely, esp
across the outer warmer waters.

Outlook: Poor boating conditions likely to persist for offshore
waters into Friday before the front crosses the region. The
front moves through Thursday night and Friday, with winds
becoming NE 10-20 kt late Fri into the weekend. Next period of
SCA possible Mon and Tuesday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for AMZ150.
     Gale Warning until 9 PM EST this evening for AMZ152-154-156-
     158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CQD/MS
AVIATION...DAG
MARINE...CQD