Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

689
FXUS62 KMHX 110012
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
712 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Small Craft Advisory from Ocracoke Inlet south through Surf
City has been expanded through Wednesday night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warmer air will precede a cold front that will track across
the area bringing a quick round of rain during the day
Wednesday.

2) Low pressure is forecast to pass over, or just south of, the
area this weekend bringing another round of rain and
potentially a few thunderstorms.

AVIATION...A period of low level wind shear will be possible
overnight tonight at all TAF sites ahead of a frontal system
that will affect the area on Wednesday.

MARINE...Increased risk of hazardous conditions for small craft
this evening through Wednesday night.

Monitoring potential for dense marine fog across portions of
our inland waters through Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Weak to moderate WAA within a southwest flow
pattern has allowed temperatures to warm into the mid to upper
60s inland this afternoon. As of 1pm, SW portions of ENC were
flirting with 70 degrees, which is quite the change from the
past few weeks. Closer to the coast, the cold shelf waters are
helping to hold temperatures in the 50s. Southwesterly flow will
continue through about early afternoon Wednesday in advance of
an approaching cold front. This will keep temperatures on the
warmer side (compared to recent weeks). Highs on Wednesday may
not get quite as warm as today, mainly due to increased
cloudcover and an increasing chance of rain. CAA doesn`t look
particularly strong behind Wednesday`s front, and temperatures
may actually rise slightly just behind the front before falling
in the evening.

Increasing low-mid level moisture and modest lift along the
advancing frontal zone should support several hours of light to
moderate rain during the day Wednesday, especially during the
morning and early afternoon hours. Given the progressive nature
of the system, rainfall amounts should be light (0.10-0.20").

KEY MESSAGE 2...Medium range guidance are in decent agreement
bringing a progressive shortwave trough, and an accompanying
surface low, east across the Southeast U.S. this weekend.
Guidance has been flipping back and forth between a more
amplified and further inland track vs a weaker, more suppressed
southern track. The latest suite of 06z/12z guidance has
shifted back towards a more suppressed/weaker/southern track.
Despite the trend towards a more southern track, it currently
doesn`t appear that there would be enough cold air in place for
any wintry precipitation. That said, a more southern track would
certainly favor colder temperatures, just not cold enough for
wintry precip. A more southern track would also tend to lower
the risk of thunderstorms. We`ll continue to see how model
trends evolve, but for now the trend favors a cold rain with a
lower risk of thunderstorms late Saturday through Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions prevail this evening across all terminals with
light south to southwesterly winds as high pressure sits just
east of the Bahamas and a cold front works its way across the
Midwest and over the Appalachians. Despite cool SSTs and
elevated Tds sea fog has yet to materialize, and odds of impacts
to coastal terminals along the Crystal Coast and OBX are falling
with this forecast. Odds for shallow fog remain low tonight,
decreasing further into Wed morning as southwesterly flow
increases. If any fog was to develop it would be from now to
around 03z when winds will be at their calmest and skies
clearest.

There will likely be a period overnight tonight into Wednesday
morning where low level wind shear could be a possibility of
30-40 kts near 2000 feet with strengthening LLJ ahead of the
approaching cold front.

Guidance still favors rain chances tomorrow ahead of the
approaching cold front, resulting in cigs dropping to at least
MVFR Wednesday morning through 18-20z. Odds of IFR are moderate
(around 30-40%) and most favored for terminals south of ISO-OCW,
although these will likely be temporary. All terminals will
return to VFR prior to 00z as cooler and drier air sweeps in
behind the front.

Outlook: VFR expected to prevail until later in the weekend
when a low pressure system moving across the southern CONUS
combines with a weak low forming off of the coast to bring some
more unsettled weather to the area.

&&

.MARINE...
South to southwest winds of 5-15kt this afternoon are forecast
to steadily build to 10-20kt by tonight. A strong marine
inversion over the coldest waters should keep mixing at a
minimum. Over the warmest waters, there should be enough mixing
to support gusts of 20-30kt. Over those waters is where
conditions will be the most adverse for small craft. Of note, it
was decided to hold onto the Small Craft Advisory for the
Pamlico Sound, but in reality, the risk of 25kt winds should be
confined mainly to the far southern extent of the sound. For the
coastal waters, seas of 4-8ft are expected tonight into early
Wednesday in the pre-frontal southwesterly flow. Of note, warm
and moistening southwest flow overtop the cold shelf waters may
support a risk of sea fog development this evening into
Wednesday morning. Local sea fog research suggests a more
marginal risk, mainly due to higher air temp/water temp
differences. We`ll continue to closely monitor this potential,
though.

A cold front moves through Wednesday, with winds shifting
around to northerly. Somewhat deeper mixing behind the front
should lead to a renewed risk of 25kt winds for a larger portion
of the area. Since there isn`t much downtime with winds across
the southern waters, the Small Craft Advisory was extended out
in time through Wednesday night. This will now cover both the
pre- frontal and the post-frontal risk of 25kt winds. For the
central waters, it appears that there will be a longer time of
sub-25kt winds, and it was decided to hold off on extending the
advisory there. What will likely happen is that another advisory
will need to be issued to cover the post-frontal winds for both
the central and northern waters. For the coastal waters, seas
of 3-6 ft are expected in the wake of the cold front.

Outlook: Low pressure is forecast to track east across the
Southeast U.S. this weekend, emerging off the coast Sunday or
Sunday night. Guidance continues to differ on the strength and
track of this low. In general, confidence is moderate to high
regarding the potential for 25kt winds, but low regarding
something stronger.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Wednesday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RM
AVIATION...MS
MARINE...RM