Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

291
FXUS62 KMHX 061848
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
248 PM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Small Craft Advisory for the coastal waters from Cape
Hatteras to Cape Lookout has been ended.

No other significant weather forecast changes were made.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Seasonable fall weather through mid-week.

2) Moderating conditions brings a warming trend back to the
region late this week and into the weekend, along with next
chance for rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...High pressure and a relatively dry airmass will
remain in place through the middle of the week, with
temperatures forecast to be at, or just below, normal for early
October. The drier airmass plus decent radiational cooling
conditions may allow some inland locations to dip into the upper
40s tonight and possibly even again Wednesday night. Closer to
the coast, high clouds skirting the area at times may prevent
temperatures from getting as low as they otherwise could.

In addition to the lower temperatures, the decent radiational
cooling conditions each night will probably favor a risk of fog
development. At the moment, it looks to be more shallow in
nature and not as impactful, but is something we`ll continue to
monitor.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Late this week and into this weekend, the upper
level pattern will begin to change. Initially, an upper level
ridge will briefly expand across the Southeast U.S. While dry
weather will continue beneath the ridge, building low-level
thicknesses should support warming temperatures, with highs
flipping back to above normal. Most inland areas should manage
to reach the low to mid 80s, with highs around 80 along the
coast.

Over the weekend, and into early next week, the ridge is
forecast to shift east into the western Atlantic. As this
happens, it should help steer any Gulf tropical system north
through the Gulf Coast States and into the TN/OH Valleys. East
of that system, a warm front is forecast to lift northeast along
the Southeast U.S. coast on the leading edge of a plume of
deep, tropical moisture. Of note, while a weak area of low
pressure may develop along the northward-advancing warm front,
the latest guidance has significantly backed off on the
potential for a stronger low to develop. Should this trend hold,
it would mean weaker winds and less coastal impacts. There is
still a lot of uncertainty with the track and evolution of the
Gulf system and the track once it moves inland.

For now, the main messaging focus is for a period of moderate
to heavy rain on Sunday and Monday across ENC. Ensemble,
deterministic, and machine learning guidance are well-clustered
on a broad area of 1-2" of rainfall for the area. Of note, there
is a smaller cluster of guidance that suggests amounts as high
as 2-3", but for now that is a lower probability solution. It is
worth noting, though, that the probabilities of exceeding 1" of
rain have increased to 50-70% for much of the area. Guidance
suggests minimal instability, but sometimes this type of setup
can favor some shallow, rotating thunderstorms along the
advancing warm front where southeasterly flow is enhanced.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecast confidence is high over the next 24 hours.

High pressure will remain wedged in place east of the
Appalachians through tonight, favoring continued northeasterly
flow across ENC. It will be gusty at times through this
afternoon, then winds quickly decrease around sunset. On
Wednesday, winds should end up lower than today as high pressure
shifts closer to the area. Like this morning, radiational
cooling conditions may support a risk of MIFG/BR. However,
widespread impactful FG is not anticipated.

Outlook: The overall pattern is expected to remain mostly
unchanged through the end of the work week. Outside of a
MIFG/BR/FG risk each night and morning, mostly VFR conditions
are expected to prevail. The next chance for widespread sub-VFR
conditions comes over the weekend as tropical moisture moves
north into the area from off the Gulf and Southwest Atlantic. RA
and potentially a TSRA risk looks to accompany the increased
moisture as well.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate northeasterly winds of 15-25kt will continue for
several more hours for the coastal waters south of Cape Lookout.
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 5pm this evening
for the nearshore coastal waters there. Elsewhere, lighter
northeast winds of 10-15kt are expected to continue into
Wednesday afternoon.

Seas of 3-6ft this afternoon are forecast to gradually lay down
to 2- 4ft by Wednesday evening. Of note, though, seas of 3-6ft
will continue in the northeasterly flow opposing the Gulf Stream
waters south of Cape Hatteras.

Outlook: High pressure is forecast to build overhead for at
least a couple of days with a weaker gradient and lighter winds.
Consequently, seas should lay down to 2-3ft for all coastal
waters. This will be shorter-lived, though, as the gradient is
forecast to re-strengthen over the weekend as a front develops
off the Southeast U.S. coast. This front will eventually lift
north as a warm front on Sunday as a tropical system in the Gulf
lifts north through the Gulf Coast States and weakens. For now,
at least, it now appears less likely that a secondary area of
low pressure will develop along the advancing warm front.
However, a period of moderate southeasterly winds is likely to
accompany the front, with 20-30kt winds likely, along with seas
building to 6-8ft at 7-8s. Stay tuned through the weekend as we
continue to refine the potential marine impacts with this
feature. A thunderstorm risk may develop with the weekend system
as well.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RM
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...RM