Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

311
FXUS62 KMHX 140813
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
313 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Light rain chances increased inland for today. Thursday`s front
is trending earlier and drier. Friday morning temps are colder
with lighter wind speeds. Sunday rain/snow chances have picked
up.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A low pressure system and cold front Wednesday through
Thursday night will bring the next chance of rain, with a slight
chance of non-accumulating snow Thursday morning. Strong CAA
behind the front will bring wind chill values in the teens
Thursday night into Friday morning.

2) A system with limited moisture moves through Sunday bringing
rain and wintry precip chances, with another surge of cold, dry
air behind it.

MARINE: SCA conditions Wednesday through Thursday night. SCA
conditions possible again for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A robust northern stream trough continued digging into the
eastern CONUS today. An embedded shortwave moving across the
Deep South will bring improved upper level forcing and expect an
area of low pressure to develop off the Southeast coast
today which will pass off the NC coast Wednesday evening.
Confidence is increasing on an offshore track, making the best
precip chances continue to be along OBX and areas offshore.
Given the more offshore track, much of the precip will be along
the Gulf Stream. For this reason, have stepped down PoPs from
likely to high end chance (50-54%) along OBX for this evening.
PoPs taper to low-end chance (25-40%) well inland This is an
upgrade from the slight chance in the previous forecast, as some
isentropic lift to the west of the low brings an increased light
rain chance. Guidance remains limited with precip amounts which
shows around a quarter of an inch along the OBX to little
accumulation inland. All liquid precip expected through
Wednesday evening.

A second shortwave moves through the upper trough Wednesday
night with an attendant cold front pushing across ENC early
Thursday morning. This front has trended drier as of late, and
we could see a scenario where little to no precip is observed
along the front. Stepped down a tad with PoPs to slight chance,
but at this point didn`t have enough confidence to drop below
14%. ENC is removed from best upper level dynamics but
sufficient moisture lingers that we could see a brief change
over to a rain/snow mix or snow with strong CAA developing
behind the front Thursday morning. This will be a typical cold
air chasing the moisture, likely keeping us dry Thursday
afternoon except possibly for OBX. Additional rainfall amounts
will only be a few hundredths of an inch liquid with no snow
accumulation expected. The upper level trough axis pushes across
the region later Thursday bringing descent forcing but by this
time moisture will be quite limited.

Front Thursday has trended a bit quicker, allowing for CAA to
begin sooner as well. Thursday afternoon/evening dewpoints drop
quite a bit behind the front, likely reaching the single digits
inland during peak mixing. Mixing will also allow for gusty
conditions Thursday, 25-30mph in the fcst. High builds in a bit
sooner with this quicker trend, allowing for light winds early
Thursday night to gradually become calm in the early morning
hours once the high builds in. Temps have trended lower with the
better radiational cooling conditions early morning Friday, but
at the same time winds have decreased during this time. Temps
are fcst to drop to the mid to upper teens inland, 20s along the
coast, which will result in wind chill values in the mi to upper
teens Friday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A deep upper level trough with an associated cold front is
expected to move through the region Sunday. Models are trending
towards a shortwave bringing rain and snow chances to ENC, but
considering it is 5 days out, confidence is low. Increased PoPs
to 20-30% given the model trends. This doesn`t shape to be a big
snow maker by any means given the quick nature and limited
moisture, but exact impacts will be worth monitoring. NBM had
temps in the mid 40s Sunday, but with the colder trend of
guidance, elected to do a NBM10/NBM blend for temps which is in
line with the chance of snow outcome.

Cyclonic flow continues aloft early to mid next week with
additional dry fronts/troughs pushing across the region keeping
temps well below normal with highs generally in the 40s and lows
in the 20s, though could see upper teens in coolest inland
spots.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Expecting primarily VFR conditions into Wed afternoon/evening.
Increasing high clouds are forecast through the rest of tonight
into tomorrow morning out ahead of a developing low pressure
system and cold front which are forecast to impact the area Wed
afternoon into Thurs morning. As the aforementioned low makes
its closest point of approach to ENC Wed afternoon, we could
see some light rain across the area with best chances occuring
near Hwy 17 and points east. This light rain could be
accompanied by a brief period of lower vis/ceilings (MVFR
levels) and to account for this low end threat, have included a
PROB30 group for all terminals this afternoon. Otherwise we
should generally remain VFR outside of this threat as mid and
high clouds continue to stream into ENC Wed. As we get into
tonight, low clouds finally begin to move into ENC from west to
east with MVFR ceilings becoming increasingly likely after
midnight. SW winds will gust 15-20 kt Wed afternoon.

Outlook: A cold front will cross through ENC Thursday, resulting
in increasing chances at MVFR ceilings across the area after
midnight, persisting into about midday Thurs. While not likely,
there is about a 10% chance to see a brief period of IFR
ceilings as well between 06-12Z Thurs with the HREF being the
most pessimistic of the guidance suite. Light precipitation will
be possible with the frontal passage as well but model trends
have been drier. Light rain may briefly mix with some snow
Thursday morning, before precip ends by early afternoon. High
pressure returns for Friday into Sat resulting in VFR conditions
from Thur afternoon through Sat. Monitoring Sun now for
potential low pressure development and sub-VFR flight
categories.

&&

.MARINE...
Currently seeing WSW winds gusting to 25 knots across gulf
stream waters, with 10-20 knots across colder waters and inland
sounds/rivers. Seas 4-5 ft along the Gulf Stream, 2-3 feet
elsewhere.

Winds diminish a bit to around 15-20 knots today before picking
back up to 20-30 knots Wednesday night as a low forms offshore
and strengthens. Again, best chance of seeing Small Craft gusts
with this low is along warmer Gulf Stream waters with SW flow.
Cooler inland sounds/rivers will see much lighter wind gusts
with the SW winds thanks to a marine inversion.

A cold front will push across the waters Thursday morning with
strong CAA developing Thursday afternoon and Thursday night and
could see NW winds bring strong SCA conditions across the
waters. Guidance continues favoring sub-Gale gusts with the NW
surge behind the front. No changes to the SCAs with this
update, but will likely need SCAs in the future for northern
coastal waters and some inland sounds/rivers with the NW flow.

Conditions improve late in the week with high pressure briefly
building into the area. This weekend, another cold front moves
through, bringing elevated winds and seas once again.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Friday for AMZ152-154-156.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Friday
     for AMZ158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SK/RJ
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...SK/RJ