Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

261
FXUS62 KMHX 302325
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
725 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Removed the chance of thunderstorms for the rest of the evening
for all land areas.

Increased winds and decreased temperatures on Tuesday behind
Monday night`s cold front.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A backdoor cold front is moving through the area with a quick
burst of winds and cooler conditions this evening.

2) Drier and cooler conditions take over behind today`s
backdoor cold front.

3) The pattern becomes unsettled again early next week with
potentially multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...The backdoor cold front is sinking south across
the FA and the remaining showers and thunderstorms have shifted
well offshore. For this reason, showers and thunderstorms have
been removed from all land areas for the remainder of the
evening. Cooler and drier air is moving in behind the front.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Tonight`s lows will dip to the mid-50s inland
and low-60s along the OBX. Below climo highs on Sunday will be
in the mid/upper-70s inland and upper-60s/low-70s along the OBX.
Dewpoints will plummet as well, making it feel quite
refreshing.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Temps will start to rebound on Monday with
inland highs around 80 as high pressure moves offshore and SW
flow resumes. The next cold front will cross the area late
Monday/early Tuesday and bring our next chance for showers and
thunderstorms. Good chances for rain with pops in the 60-85%
range, peaking Monday afternoon through Monday evening. Some
wrap around showers may be in the picture for Tuesday as a low
pressure area forms off the front in the offshore waters. Some
global guidance is showing a low developing off the GA/SC coast
and moving northeast around mid-week, which could lead to PoPs
trending higher in future updates. There`s still uncertainty
in whether or not a low will form, and if it does, its strength
and track will greatly impact the precipitation and wind
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A secondary cold front/wind shift is moving quickly SW across
ENC at this time, and should be completely out of the area by
04z tonight. Light northeast winds will quickly ramp up and
become easterly as this front moves through. Frequent wind gusts
of 20-30kt can be expected with the initial thump of winds
along the front. Less frequent wind gusts are then expected the
rest of the night. Even lighter winds are expected on Sunday as
high pressure moves overhead. Throughout the next 24 hours, VFR
conditions are expected to prevail.

Outlook: The next chance of showers will be on Monday into Monday
evening ahead of another cold front. There`s uncertainty in how
unsettled the rest of the week will be due to a potential offshore
low, which could introduce more showers and thunderstorms to the
forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
SCAs remain in effect for all waters except the Pamlico and
Pungo Rivers. The backdoor cold front is moving southwest
across the area and generating a NEerly surge of 20-25 kt with
gusts of 25-35 kt. These conditions will persist overnight with
seas building to 5-9 ft. NE winds will decrease to 10-15 kt
tomorrow as they veer to the E through the day with 6 ft seas
lingering across the central waters until late Monday.

Outlook: 6 ft seas may linger across the coastal waters between
Oregon Inlet and Ocracoke until late Monday. Another round of
SCA winds and seas are expected to develop on Tuesday with a
potential low forming offshore. Hazardous conditions could last
through late week, but it`s too early to determine specifics.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from Sunday morning through Sunday
     evening for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ131-137-230-
     231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ156.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Sunday for AMZ158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RM/OJC
AVIATION...RM/OJC
MARINE...RM/OJC