Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

354
FXUS62 KMHX 102339
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
739 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Added Croatan and Roanoke Sounds into the small craft advisory
suite.

Updated precip forecast for today given latest trends in Hi-Res
guidance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Risk of dangerous heat late this week.

2) Pattern expected to become more conducive for showers and
thunderstorms for the weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Really not much change in forecast thinking as we
will remain rather hot going into this weekend. High pressure
ridging will remain centered off the Mid-Atlantic coast allowing for
steady SW`rly surface flow outside of daily seabreezes. This will
result in rather warm low-level thicknesses overspreading the
Carolinas. While NBM guidance continues to be too warm with temps,
records will still be in jeopardy, esp FRI (see climate section
below for record high info). The caveats each day through this
weekend will be the coverage of convection (see KEY MESSAGE 2 for
additional details), and the potential for high clouds/convective
debris. Both of those factors can have significant impacts on the
temperature forecast each day. Regardless, persistent SWerly flow
will allow dewpoints to steadily rise into the upper 60s to low 70s
each day with the highest dewpoints being found behind the daily
seabreeze as it works its way inland. This will lead to higher
humidity and increasing "feels like" temperatures even on the days
with convection/clouds. There does look to be a chance for a few
showers and thunderstorms today, tomorrow, and on Friday mainly
during the afternoon and evening each day. Fri will start already
relatively warm with early morning MinTs 10deg above Normal, and low
level thicknesses will continue to increase. Probabilistic guidance
currently shows a 70-90% chance of exceeding 95 degrees for inland
areas away from the coast. This combined with dewpoints in the low
70s suggests a widespread area of AppTs of ~105deg. This setup could
lead to the first heat headlines of the summer season. The NWS`
experimental Heat Risk guidance shows much of ENC in the major
category, with a few areas nearing the extreme category.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Once again no real changes to forecast thinking over
the next few days. Synoptic pattern is expected to shift towards
something more favorable for convection across ENC esp this weekend
with a weak front crossing the FA Sat and stalling to the S of the
area into early next week when troughing aloft develops, opening
moisture transport from the Gulf. However, this shouldn`t be read as
a high coverage of thunderstorms each day. In fact most of the day
will be rain free, but as is typical in convective season in ENC,
hit and miss storms are going to dot the area each afternoon through
early evening.

Firstly, an upper level shortwave is forecast to move through the
Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas  tonight and push offshore in the early
morning Thu. This wave is forecast to interact with a moistening and
gradually destabilizing airmass, supporting clusters of convection
from VA S into the Piedmont of NC. Locally, temps aloft will be very
warm, with 850 temps of 15-20C. This will have a tendency to support
some residual capping, and may tend to lead to a weakening trend
with any convection that approaches our area from the W/NW. Given
the increased forcing with the wave, though, it stands to reason
that at least some weak, elevated convection could survive into the
area, and the forecast reflects this potential for Wed evening for a
potential weakening MCS with 20-30% chances for showers or storms.
Very warm temps aloft may continue to cap a greater coverage of
convection into Fri, and thus afternoon spotty rain chances are only
20%, so slightly below climo.

Friday night, stronger showers and thunderstorms developing to our W
may reinvigorate over the area when the prefrontal trough interacts
with the seabreeze as works over the Coastal Plain. Some of these
storms may be strong enough to carry strong winds and maybe some
hail, and as such, SPC has outlined the bulk of the state of NC
in a marginal risk (lvl 1/5) for severe thunderstorms.

Temps aloft "cool" slightly as heights aloft fall ahead of the front
and the stout mid level ridge begins to weaken, and this may support
at least a risk of higher coverage seabreeze convection on Sat.

Early next week, higher than climo shower and storm chances are in
the forecast with the greater moisture content through the column
leading to PWATs in excess of 2in. Additionally, deep layer shear of
around 30-35kt along the front may support a modest increase in the
potential for organized convection, some of which could be on the
strong side.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Primarily VFR forecast expected through the TAF period. Tonight
will be similar to last night with SCT to BKN high clouds and SW
winds around 10 kt. There`s potential for a low stratus deck
late tonight, but confidence was not high enough to include as a
ceiling with this TAF cycle. Tomorrow, winds will remain out of
the SW at around 10-15 kt with scattered high clouds and diurnal
cu.

Outlook: Risk of showers/storms is quite low Thu and Fri, but
not 0. Better chance for afternoon/evening showers/storms this
weekend into early next week, with tempo reductions in vsby
and/or cigs accompanying the heavier showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Thermal gradient has begin to develop this afternoon allowing
winds to increase across waters that currently have ongoing
SCA`s out. 10-20kt S-SW winds and gusts up to 25 knots noted
across coastal waters north of Ocracoke, as well as the Pamlico
and Croatan/Roanoke sounds with lighter winds noted elsewhere
(closer to 10-15 kts with gusts up around 20 kts). Seas are
generally around the 2-4 ft range across our coastal waters as
well. Don`t expect much change over the next 24 hours with
steady SW winds forecast across our area waters at 10-20 kts
with gusts up to 20-30 kts. As a result expect SCA`s across the
Pamlico and central coastal waters to continue into Thurs
evening now, but elsewhere we likely get a reprieve late
tonight into Thurs morning before wind increase yet again
resulting in a threat for additional SCA`s on Thursday. SChc to
Chc of showers and thunderstorms crossing Nern inside waters
after sunset and pushing offshore after midnight

Outlook (Thu night through Mon): A typical summertime regime,
with swrly gradient flow maxing out between 21Z and 06Z each
evening leading to marginal 25+ kt winds gusts in the favored
areas mentioned above. Seas of 2-4ft will be common. The risk
of thunderstorms will increase late- week into early next week,
with best chances in the late afternoon to evening hours. A
front will cross Sat and stall to the S. Low pressure will
develop along the boundary and lift back Nward across the
Carolinas early next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for 06/12 (Friday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        95/2016  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   89/1922  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      98/1914  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   92/1952  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         95/1986  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    95/2016  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ135-152-
     154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ150-231.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CEB/RCF
AVIATION...RCF/OJC
MARINE...CEB/RCF