Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

446
FXUS62 KMHX 021425
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
925 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increased pops today to ~20% for the isolated to widely
scattered light rain showers moving into ENC.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warm with showers and thunderstorms possible Wednesday-
Friday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Little change to the forecast reasoning with
medium range guidance continuing to converge on a solution for
the mid to late-week period, but notable differences remain.
Where guidance is fairly well clustered is with an amplified
upper trough that will be shifting east out of the Central U.S.
While there is still some potential for a cutoff low to develop,
most guidance have now trended towards more of a progressive
and open wave as it moves through the Eastern U.S. Guidance
differs on the timing, which leads to differences in
precipitation placement, temperatures, etc. But, most guidance
is now centering on the best chance of showers and thunderstorms
coming Thursday and/or Friday. Of note, some guidance are
showing anomalous moisture and higher-than-normal instability
for early November. This would support the potential of some
higher rainfall rates and totals should this materialize. It may
even support at least a marginal risk of strong to severe
thunderstorms. While there is some synoptic support for this
potential, machine learning guidance doesn`t show that strong of
a signal. It`s something worth keeping an eye on as the
evolution of the upper level, and surface, pattern become more
clear.

The other aspect of the forecast that appears to be coming more
clear this week is the potential for above to well above normal
temperatures, especially Wednesday and Thursday. While record
highs may not be broken, warming low-level thicknesses in
advance of the approaching trough should support highs warming
into the 70s, with some low 80s possible inland. Meanwhile,
overnight lows are forecast to be closer to our normal highs for
this time of year. Some record warm lows may be in jeopardy.
For reference, normal highs are around 70 in early November,
with normal lows in the 40s inland and 50s along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecast confidence is moderate to high over the next 24 hours.

Widespread mid and high clouds will accompany a slow-moving
upper level trough as it continues to advance east across ENC
through today. Some -SHRA may accompany this feature as well,
especially during the daylight hours (when moisture and lift
will be maximized). Significant reductions to VIS are not
expected with any SHRA activity, though.

Later this evening and tonight, some mid and upper level drying
may scour out some of the extensive cloudiness of late. Should
this occur, it could support slightly better radiational cooling
conditions and an increased risk of BR/MIFG/FG development. The
latest short-term guidance continue to show modest
probabilities of this occurring (30-50% chance). There is still
some uncertainty regarding how much clearing will actually
occur, so no sub-VFR conditions have been introduced into the
TAFs just yet. At face value, guidance favors KOAJ, KPGV, and
KISO for the best chance to see a period of reduced VIS.

Outlook: Coastal troughing near ENC may support periods of low
CIGs and SHRA along the coast, mainly impacting KMRH. With
increased low- level moisture, there may also be a nightly risk
of BR/MIFG/FG at all TAF sites. Later in the week, a slow-moving
frontal system may lead to a risk of TSRA and a more
appreciable risk of sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
A pinched surface gradient remains in place between a coastal
troughing offshore and a strong surface high anchored over the
Mid-Atlantic States. Latest obs show NE-E winds 10-20 kt gusting
20-25 kt across the outer central and southern waters, with
seas 3-5 ft nearshore and 4-6 ft offshore. Gradients will
continue to grad relax through today.

Outlook: Coastal troughing is forecast to remain in place
through at least the middle of the week, with the strongest
gradient and highest winds focused across the central and
southern waters. The coastal trough may drift inland by
Wednesday with more of a dominant easterly flow developing for
most waters. The flow then begins to become southeasterly by
Thursday in the wake of the inland-advancing coastal trough.
Guidance continue to keep probs for 25kt+ winds low through
Thursday. However, there is a broad signal for low pressure
development over the Southwest Atlantic later in the week.
Should this occur, there may be an accompanying risk of 6 ft+
long-period swell development.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CQD/TL
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...RM/CQD/SK