Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

540
FXUS62 KMHX 060805
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
305 AM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Higher confidence in strong winds and extreme cold this weekend.

Storm and Gale Warnings issued for the marine areas.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Black ice and snow/ice refreeze remains a threat to travel
this morning and the next few days, though lesser impacts are
expected with extensive melting recently.

2) Dangerous cold expected Saturday and Sunday, and an Extreme
Cold Watch has been issued for the coldest period, Saturday
night to Sunday morning when wind chills could drop below 0
across most of ENC.

MARINE...Storm and Gale Warnings have been issued for this
weekend as very strong winds (and gusts up to 50 kts) develop
behind an Arctic cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Though we`ve seen extensive melting of the snow
pack from a combination of rain and warm temperatures, there
remains a threat to black ice and snow/ice refreezing this
morning and the next few days as temperatures drop well below
freezing at night.

KEY MESSAGE 2...An intense Arctic front will cross the region
early tomorrow morning, and very cold temperatures will advect
into the area through the day Saturday and Saturday night.
Strong winds will develop Saturday morning and continue through
Saturday night, leading to extremely cold wind chill values,
especially overnight. Winds chills will drop below 0 degrees
Saturday night as air temps fall into the lower teens, and an
Extreme Cold Watch has been issued for all of ENC for this
threat.

Highs on Saturday will only reach around the freezing mark due
to the strong CAA, and portions of the area may see wind chills
meeting Cold Weather Advisory (wind chills less than 15
degrees) criteria for most of the day. Very cold conditions
continue Sunday and Sunday night, though at the moment we look
to stay above Cold Weather Advisory thresholds.

Record lows are possible Sunday morning, see CLIMATE section
below for more details.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Expect VFR conditions into Fri evening with skies clearing
before high and mid clouds begin to enter the picture again
from the NW Fri afternoon. Then as a potent mid level
disturbance dives SE`wards across the Mid-Atlantic ahead of a
front expect ceilings to begin to lower to sub-VFR ceilings as
early as Fri evening. Best chances of seeing at least MVFR
conditions are north of hwy 70, including KPGV and KISO. Further
south away from the best moisture and forcing, ceilings should
be higher. There is also a chance at some light rain and or
light snow, although have kept precip mentions out of the TAFs,
but if the trends continue will likely add them in with the 12Z
update. Winds remain light through the period generally 10 kts
or less, although LLWS concerns exist Friday night ahead of the
cold front for all terminals.

Outlook: Predominantly VFR Saturday morning behind a cold front
as high pressure builds in. Winds will be gusty Saturday,
gusting up to 35 knots out of the NW inland, up to 45 knots for
OBX. Winds ease up Saturday night into Sunday with high
overhead. Could see some lower ceilings and Tuesday as a warm
approaches the region from the south.

&&

.MARINE...
Hazardous marine conditions continue this morning with Small
Craft Advisories in effect. Dangerous marine conditions will
then develop early tomorrow morning behind a strong Arctic cold
front, with Storm conditions expected across most of the
coastal waters, and with high end Gale conditions elsewhere.

Winds will continue to subside early this morning, and
conditions have improved to N 15-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts.
Wind gusts should drop below 25 kts by mid morning, but
lingering 6 ft seas will keep Small Craft conditions into this
afternoon.

Winds will begin to increase again this evening ahead of the
Arctic front to WSW 15-25 kts, strongest over the southern
coastal waters, and then will switch abruptly to the NW behind
the front after midnight. Winds will initially increase to NW
25-35 kts with gusts 40-45 kts early Sunday morning. Winds then
surge stronger by mid Sunday morning to NW 30-40 kts with gusts
45-50 kts through early Sunday night. Winds then begin subside
slowly overnight into Monday morning. Seas will be 6-10 ft by
Saturday morning, and then increase to 8-12 ft by Saturday
evening, before slowly subsiding into Sunday morning.

Outlook: Winds will continue to improve Sunday and Monday,
though lingering seas will keep Small Craft conditions over the
coastal waters through at least Monday morning. Light NW and
then W winds expected into Wednesday when winds increase ahead
of the next front.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record low temps for 2/8 (Sunday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern         15/1947  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    11/1985  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville       14/1977  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    15/1977  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston          10/1977  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     15/1977  (NCA ASOS)

Record low temps for 2/9 (Monday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern         12/1970  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    15/1970  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville       12/1934  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    10/1970  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston          16/1995  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     18/1995  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday
     morning for NCZ029-044-079-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-
     204-205.
     Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday
     morning for NCZ045>047-080-081-203.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 5 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for AMZ131-
     230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for AMZ135.
     Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Sunday for
     AMZ135.
     Gale Warning from 8 AM Saturday to 4 AM EST Sunday for AMZ136-
     137.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for AMZ150-
     156-158.
     Storm Warning from 6 AM to 10 PM EST Saturday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ152.
     Storm Warning from 8 AM to 10 PM EST Saturday for AMZ152-154-
     156.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ154.
     Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Sunday for
     AMZ158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SGK
AVIATION...RJ
MARINE...SGK