Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

662
FXUS62 KMHX 171938
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
238 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Inc max T`s rest of today and lowered TD`s resulting in lowered
RH`s by 5-10% with dry wsw mixing down the drier air from the
lingering dry atms in place.

Increased rain totals a bit Sunday, with most or all of ENC
receiving between 0.5-1.00" of rain. Highest totals are forecast
for the OBX zones.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A storm system will bring a cold rain to the area Sunday, and
there remains a chance that rain mixes with or changes to snow
at the end of precipitation for Coastal Plain zones. However,
with temps above freezing no accumulations or impacts are
expected.

2) Any remaining wet roads or bridges will freeze Sunday night
into the Monday morning commute, as temperatures fall through
the 20s late Sunday night.

3) Another Arctic blast expected early through mid next week
with lows and wind chills in the teens Monday through Wednesday
mornings. Wednesday morning coldest day of the week with lows
in the teens all areas away from the beaches with high pressure
overhead.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 2 PM Sat...

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Deep upper trough in the Deep South all the way to the GOM will
pivot eastward Sunday, with a weak surface low expected to form
along a surface boundary off the SE coast moving northeastward
late Sunday. Despite checking several boxes for wintry weather
across the Carolinas, especially a lack of cold air in place,
will keep precipitation from this system as a cold rain for most
of the day Sunday. Rain may mix with or change to snow before
ending acrs the Coastal Plain but surface temps will still be
above freezing and no accumulations or impacts are expected.

The much needed rain will start late tonight towards dawn
Sunday morning, then rapidly increase in coverage across ENC
through the day with deep isentropic ascent in place. Rainfall
amounts of 1/2"-1" are expected, which may only put a slight
dent in the severe drought now in place, but any wetting rain is
more than welcome at this point.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

There remains some potential for the development of black ice
overnight into the Mon AM commute time if heavier rainfall
totals are seen and leave wet roads and bridges, as temps will
crash hard into the 20s overnight. First ones to ice up will be
bridges and overpasses.

Key Message 3...

Another Arctic blast is expected behind the front, leading to
well below normal temps Monday through Wednesday. Low temps
will reach the low 20s, and when factoring in wind chills it
will feel like the teens each morning. We will be close to Cold
Weather Advisory criteria both Tuesday morning (wind chills),
and Wednesday morning (air temps). Wed morning is the coldest
with high pressure directly overhead with lows in the teens
areas away from the immediate coast.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to continue today with increasing
mid and high clouds and SW winds gusting to 20-25 kt. A cold
front will cross the area tonight, which will veer winds to the
NW and bring widespread rain to ENC. CIGs will gradually drop
overnight and should be near MVFR by sunrise. CIGs will continue
to drop through the TAF period, reaching IFR by 13/14Z and LIFR
by 16/17Z. Widespread MVFR VIS is expected by 13z with drops to
IFR possible, especially within pockets of heavier rainfall.
Winds will be 5-10 kt out of the NW through the afternoon.

Outlook: Rain will continue into Sunday evening with the potential
for some snowflakes to briefly mix in, especially for ISO/PGV.
Flight conditions will be slow to improve but should return to VFR
Sunday night. No snow accumulations are expected, but there`s
concern for black ice Sunday night/Monday morning. Dry high
pressure returns Monday, bringing a return to VFR conditions
across all of ENC through mid week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 2 PM Sat...
Small craft conditions over the gulf waters from Oregon Inlet
to C Lookout through early evening thanks to strong and gusty W
to SW winds (25+ kts) ahead of a frontal system. Sub SCA winds
below 20 kt expected elsewhere as WAA inc over stable marine
layer.

Winds temporarily subside tonight as a cold front crosses the
region, but NW winds pick up again Sunday afternoon through
evening to 15-25 kts (30 kt Gulf waters), and a brief period of
Small Craft conditions will be possible esp coastal waters s of
Oregon Inlet.

Outlook: Arctic high pressure builds over the waters with
lighter winds of 10-20 kt expected through Wednesday with seas
2-4 ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for AMZ152-
     154-156.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TL
AVIATION...OJC
MARINE...TL