Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

452
FXUS62 KMHX 061807
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
207 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes through the period.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A return to more typical summertime pattern through much of
the forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

This afternoon, showers and thunderstorms have popped up along
the sea breeze and some residual differential heating boundaries
from earlier cloud cover. Some convection has been accompanied
by frequent lightning and heavier showers but the vast majority
of the activity is expected to stay sub severe this afternoon.
Short term models have shower and thunderstorm activity
decreasing through the evening and ceasing around 00z.

Taking a wider view for the upcoming period, an upper ridge and
Bermuda high pressure will be centered off the coast through
Saturday, becoming suppressed late in the weekend as shortwave
energy pushes across the mid- Atlantic. More of a zonal pattern
develops next week with a series of shortwave troughs pushing
across the area. Precip chances will be near climo each day with
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms developing each
afternoon, then dissipating with loss of heating during the
evening. The severe threat appears minimal through the period
with limited shear and forcing.

A gradual warming trend will continue through the period as well
with highs in the lower 90s inland through the weekend, then
warming in to the mid 90s next week. Temps generally in the mid
to upper 80s along the coast. The probabilities for Major Heat
Risk increase to around 60-80% Monday through Thursday of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are in play for all
terminals this afternoon with more coverage currently in the
vicinity of EWN and OAJ and then will progress northwestward as
the sea breeze pushes inland bringing occasional sub- VFR
conditions within heavier showers and storms. A similar set up
with mainly clear skies and light winds will bring a chance for
fog and stratus again late Thursday night with PGV and ISO the
most likely terminals to experience MVFR/IFR ceilings.

Of note, AMD NOT SKED was appended to the KEWN TAF due to an
ongoing communications issue that is impacting dissemination of
the observation information. However, TAFs will continue to be
issued while the issue is troubleshooted.

Outlook (Friday through Monday): Primarily VFR conditions and
light winds are forecast into early next week as high pressure
builds into the area. Given ample low level moisture there is a
low end chance for patchy ground fog to develop each morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Bermuda high will remains in control as it sits off the coast.
S to SW winds around 5-15 kt with seas around 2-4 ft continue to
prevail. As we move into tomorrow, somewhat stronger winds are
possible during the late afternoon and evening hours Friday
through the weekend as temps warm inland, bringing a tightening
of gradients between the thermal trough inland and the offshore
high. Gusts may approach SCA conditions across the Pamlico,
Croatan/Roanoke Sounds and coastal waters north of Cape Hatteras
at times.

Ongoing showers and thunderstorms over the inland rivers and
near the Gulf Stream are expected to dissipate late this
afternoon with quieter conditions into Friday night. Nearshore
coastal waters should have less convective coverage this
afternoon. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase Saturday
into early next week as a trough of low pressure rotates around
the Bermuda High and off the NC coast.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RTE/SK
AVIATION...RTE/SK
MARINE...RTE/SK