Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

702
FXUS62 KMHX 112336
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
736 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Lowered thunder chances for the rest of this evening and
overnight.

Updated for 12/00Z TAFs

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unsettled pattern expected through the weekend

2) Back to a more typical summertime pattern next week with
high draped over the Southeast U.S.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...This afternoon, a wavy frontal boundary
stretches west to east from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic.
South of the front, a moistening southerly flow is ongoing
across the Southeast U.S, with instability steadily building.
Case in point, dewpoints today are about 5 degrees higher than
yesterday across the board. There is still some residual dry air
aloft, but it continues to erode and the PWATs are bumping up
against 2" which is above the 90th percentile for this time of
year.

For the rest of today, residual subsidence beneath upper
ridging shifting offshore may hold convective coverage down
some. However, with moisture and instability increasing, we
still expect at least isolated convection to develop, primarily
along sea/river/sound breezes. Later this evening and tonight,
the above-mentioned cold front is forecast to dip into the
northern counties of ENC, and this may support some continuation
of convection in that area past sunset. Storm motions parallel
to front may allow some training of convection, with a
minor/nuisance-stayle flooding risk possible. With some residual
dry air aloft, DCAPE is forecast to be around 1000j/kg,
supporting a risk of gusty downburst winds of 40-50 mph.

Early Saturday morning, convection may be ongoing in the
vicinity of the stalled front. There may also be some convection
along the southern coastal areas thanks to an approaching
shortwave and the diurnal land-breeze circulation. Through the
day, PWATs continue to climb above 2" for the entire area. The
above-mentioned shortwave is forecast to pass west of ENC, but
should provide enough of a glancing blow combined with the
seabreeze and an inland trough to support scattered convection
capable of very heavy rainfall rates and gusty winds. The
increased southerly flow should lead to a more progressive
seabreeze which should also favor a more progressive nature to
the convection. While this would limit the duration of heavy
rainfall rates over any one location, the rates could be high
enough to support minor hydro concerns, especially in urban
areas. Of note, despite anomalous moisture and moderate
instability, convective coverage on Saturday is less certain as
the strongest forcing is expected to be outside of ENC. Despite
moderate instability, weak shear and lower DCAPE should help to
keep the severe thunderstorm risk at a minimum.

On Sunday, guidance continues the trend of slowing down the
arrival of a cold front that will be dropping south out of
Virginia. The front now looks to come through Sunday night. This
points towards an extra day of moist and unstable conditions,
with another round of scattered to perhaps numerous
thunderstorms. Deep layer shear is forecast to slightly
increase, but the overall severe thunderstorm risk continues to
look low. With anomalous PWATs in place, heavy rainfall rates
can be expected, with a continued risk of minor flooding
impacts.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A much drier airmass is forecast to build in
across the Eastern U.S. early next week in the wake of Sunday
night`s cold front. Additionally, guidance have trended a bit
cooler within the developing northeasterly flow regime, offering
a reprieve from the higher humidity over this weekend. From
mid-week on, guidance differ on whether it warms up or stays
milder. Additionally, guidance suggests a decent coastal trough
may develop along what is leftover from this weekend`s front.
With ridging building in, this trough may slide west beneath the
ridge and bring a return to unsettled conditions, especially
along the coast by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Guidance is once again showing a moderate signal for IFR/LIFR
CIGs and reduced VIS in BR/MIFG/FG. The signal is more
widespread tonight compared to last night, which may put all TAF
sites within the risk area. Best chances are for KISO and KOAJ.
Any fog and low stratus slowly give way to MVFR then VFR.
Included a vcsh mention for EWN and OAJ as some showers advance
northward through the afternoon. Perhaps some embedded thunder
as well but due to uncertainty in thunder coverage will not
include attm.

Outlook (Sat night through Wed): There will continue to be a
risk of TSRA through Sunday. Eventually, a cold front is
forecast to move through Sunday night with drier and more stable
air in tow, along with a reduced risk of TSRA. Drier conditions
are expected to last into the middle of next week with a
reduced risk of precip.

&&

.MARINE...
South to southwest winds of 10-15kt are common across most
waters this afternoon. The exception is across the northern
coastal waters and the Albemarle Sound vicinity where winds have
recently shifted to E or NE in the wake of a weak front. That
front is forecast to remain mostly stationary through this
evening, then lift back north as a warm front by Saturday
morning. Southerly flow then prevails through Saturday
afternoon. Seas are currently 1-3ft across the coastal waters,
and this is expected to continue through Saturday. Through this
evening, any thunderstorm activity should be confined to the
inland rivers and sounds. The risk then shifts to the coastal
waters tonight into Saturday morning. The risk moves back inland
Saturday afternoon.

Outlook: The risk of thunderstorms will continue until a cold
front moves through Sunday evening. A northerly wind shift will
occur along this front, with northeasterly flow then continuing
into next week. The strongest northeasterly winds (10-20kt) are
expected Monday and Tuesday, with a period of 25kt winds
possible for some waters. Confidence in 25kt winds is moderate.
Seas will respond to the building winds, and are expected to
peak at 4-7ft Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RM
AVIATION...RM/TL
MARINE...RM